National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
NSCSA AB: Saudi Arabia
14 September 2015
Rating
OVERWEIGHT
Target price
SAR45.9 (22.4% upside)
Current price
SAR37.5 (as on 13/09/2015)
Research Department
Nivedan Reddy Patlolla
Tel +966 11 211 9423, [email protected]
Key themes & implications
Oil transportation industry is on a strong footing as
demand for VLCCs is being driven by increase in
crude oil transportation volumes and floating
storage requirement (especially when oil prices
witness a sharp plunge), resulting in higher freight
rates. Low bunker fuel cost is driving operating
margin expansion. Apart from sector tailwinds,
Bahri will also benefit from exclusivity
arrangements to ship Saudi Aramco’s crude sized
cargoes (part of Vela merger agreement) which will
drive better revenue and earnings visibility.
Share information
Market cap (SAR/US$)
14.75bn / 3.934bn
52-week range
28.08 - 55.75
Daily avg volume (USD)
16.2mn
Shares outstanding
393.8mn
Free float (est)
52%
Performance
Absolute
1M
3M
12M
-11.9%
-30.3%
-4.1%
-0.8%
-11.4%
26.1%
Relative to index
Major Shareholders:
Saudi Aramco for development
Saudi
for Development
Public Aramco
Investment
Fund
Bahri, the third largest VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) player globally,
benefits from a unique business model that makes it resilient to business cycles.
A minimum guaranteed freight rate and likely stable volume (led by certain
arrangements to ship Saudi Aramco’s VLCC sized crude cargoes) enhances
revenue visibility and cushions earnings volatility. It also benefits from
cheaper bunker fuel costs (the key cost element) leading to better margins. The
recent merger with Vela almost doubled its VLCC fleet to 31 from 17. We expect
synergies from this merger to play out which should improve Bahri’s opex
profile going forward. In the medium term, Bahri will benefit from higher
transport volumes with the Kingdom increasing oil production in a bid to
maintain market share. In the long run, the Kingdom’s emphasis on higher
petrochemical production will benefit National Chemical Carriers (Bahri’s
petrochemicals transporting subsidiary). General Cargo segment and Dry Bulk
subsidiary have ramped up in the last 3 years backed by new fleet
commissioning, solid customer agreements and are expected to post healthy
performance led by expanding global trade. We initiate coverage with
Overweight rating and target price of SAR 45.9 (22% upside).
20.0%
22.5%
Valuation
12/14A
Bahri
On a strong footing
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
P/E (x)
24.9
11.1
9.6
9.1
P/B (x)
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.6
9.3
8.3
7.6
Dividend Yield
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
A formidable entity post-merger: Vela merger has significantly enhanced
Bahri’s ability to benefit from the Kingdom’s oil transportation. We expect Bahri
to benefit from the exclusivity arrangements with Saudi Aramco (the Kingdom’s
crude production reached 10.6 mbpd in July 2015 from 9.5 mbpd in December
2014) including the freight rate agreement. We believe full merger synergies
from Vela integration to play out going forward and is a key upside risk to our
estimates for crude oil transportation segment (approx. 78% of consolidated
revenue)
Source: Company data, Al Rajhi Capital
Performance
RSI10
Price Close
Relative to TADAWUL FF (RHS)
60.0
162
55.0
151
50.0
139
45.0
128
40.0
116
35.0
105
30.0
93
25.0
82
70
30
-10
09/14
12/14
03/15
Valuation and risks: We value Bahri at average of DCF and EV/EBITDA fair
values, resulting in target price of SAR 45.9 (22% upside from CMP of SAR 37.5)
and Overweight rating. Key upside risks are increase in freight rates, margin
uptick in petrochemical/ cargo segments and merger synergies playing out. Key
downside risks are discontinuance of bunker subsidy and softening of freight
rates. Other risks include higher commissioning of crude/ chemical carriers
globally (higher freight rates result in higher orders for VLCCs, thus increasing
competitive intensity), increase in bunker fuel costs and interest rate, middle
east instability.
06/15
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Al Rajhi Capital
Period End (SAR)
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
Company summary
Revenue (mn)
Revenue Growth
Gross profit margin
2,847
15.5%
66.9%
3,624
27.3%
66.7%
6,746
86.2%
83.1%
7,007
3.9%
81.4%
7,210
2.9%
79.4%
EBITDA margin
Net profit margin
EPS
EPS Growth
ROE
ROCE
Capex/Sales
34.1%
26.4%
2.39
32.2%
14.7%
1.51
-36.9%
7.8%
4.7%
96.3%
33.6%
19.7%
3.38
124.2%
16.4%
9.7%
13.9%
34.9%
22.0%
3.92
15.9%
17.2%
10.6%
12.0%
35.0%
22.6%
4.13
5.6%
16.0%
10.6%
12.0%
Bahri (earlier, The National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia) is one of the largest shipping
companies globally (3rd largest VLCC fleet), and the
largest crude oil carrier in the Kingdom. It also has
presence in Petrochemicals, General Cargo and
Dry Bulk transportation.
13.4%
4.7%
32.9%
Source: Company data, Al Rajhi Capital, Note: (a) Reported EPS in FY14 is SAR 1.58, difference is due to considering
year end shares instead of weighted average; (b) Large change in revenue, capex in 2014/15 due to Vela merger
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
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1
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Investment thesis
Significant benefits from Vela merger
Bahri will reap significant benefits from Vela merger, which concluded in H2 2014. The key
benefits of the merger are:

Bahri will become exclusive provider of VLCC crude oil shipping services to Saudi
Aramco for crude oil sold on delivered basis. The shipping contract is for long-term
(minimum duration of 10 years). Under this contract, Bahri will meet all of Saudi
Aramco’s future needs. To do so, Bahri will optimally operate its fleet, which includes 31
VLCCs after the merger, in addition to chartered VLCCs if needed. This will support
tonnage growth (volume transported) over the medium term.

Bahri will be compensated in the event freight rates drop below the agreed minimum
threshold. In the event freight rates increase beyond the agreed threshold (compensation
limit), Bahri will compensate Saudi Aramco for the amount it has paid when the freight
rates drop below the minimum rate. We believe this will cushion volatility and hence
improve earnings quality going forward.
Overall, we believe Vela merger to drive approx. 58% CAGR in revenue and 81% CAGR in
EBIT for the crude oil transportation segment over 2014-16 period, due to increased number
of vessels (to 31, from 17 before merger) and also due to expected higher freight rates in this
period. Unlocking merger synergies will be a key upside trigger for our margin estimates.
Figure 1 Vela’s merger has catapulted Bahri to Global #3 in terms of number of VLCCs
Owners
No. of vessels owned
Avg age
% share of fleet
Total DWT
NITC
37
8
5.90%
11,475
MOSK
32
8
5.10%
9,792
Bahri
31
10
4.90%
9,714
China VLCC
29
5
4.60%
8,784
NYK
28
9
4.40%
8,418
Euronav
25
7
4.00%
7,911
SK
19
6
3.00%
5,964
Oman Ship
15
4
2.40%
4,725
Cosco
15
6
2.40%
4,487
Dr Peters GmbH & Co KG
15
13
2.40%
4,525
Maran
14
13
2.20%
4,306
OTC
14
4
2.20%
4,454
Dynacom
14
6
2.20%
4,280
Ship Finance International Ltd
13
14
2.10%
3,928
KPC
12
6
1.90%
3,802
Other
318
9
50.40%
97,543
Total VLCC Fleet
631
9
194,107
Source: Company data
Saudi Aramco, Bahri’s key customer in the VLCC segment has increased production to 10.6
mbpd in July 2015 from 9.5 mbpd in December 2014. Hence, Bahri will benefit from shipping
higher tonnage over the medium term.
We have assumed Bahri’s recent order for 10 VLCCs (contracted with Hyundai Heavy
Shipyard in Korea) to join the fleet in 2018, increasing the number of VLCCs to 41. Bahri
opines, to cater to the demand of transporting Saudi Aramco’s Crude oil, a total of 50 VLCCs
will be required, which will be met with its current fleet of 31 VLCCs and chartering others.
We believe this leaves elbowroom for Bahri to further increase its VLCC fleet going forward,
which should be an additional growth driver in our view (not in our estimates currently).
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
2
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Figure 2 Saudi Arabia Oil production (mbpd) ticking up
11.00
10.50
10.00
9.50
9.00
8.50
7/1/2015
6/1/2015
5/1/2015
4/1/2015
3/1/2015
2/1/2015
1/1/2015
12/1/2014
11/1/2014
9/1/2014
10/1/2014
8/1/2014
7/1/2014
6/1/2014
5/1/2014
4/1/2014
3/1/2014
2/1/2014
1/1/2014
12/1/2013
11/1/2013
9/1/2013
10/1/2013
8/1/2013
7/1/2013
6/1/2013
5/1/2013
4/1/2013
3/1/2013
2/1/2013
1/1/2013
12/1/2012
11/1/2012
9/1/2012
10/1/2012
8/1/2012
8.00
Source: Industry data
Favourable macro/ sector tailwinds
The low oil price environment along with continuing uptick in US and Europe economies is
expected to increase demand for crude oil, which should result in higher tonnage shipped
globally. With a fleet of 31 VLCCs, the 3rd largest globally, Bahri will be one of the key
beneficiaries. From a sector perspective, the freight rates have been on the uptrend from the
time oil prices have been sliding last year, as VLCC demand has been triggered by increased
transport volume as well as requirement for floating storage (generally used by traders to
take advantage of contango in prices).
Crude oil is current trading at USD 47/ bbl (Brent) and has dropped 53% over the last one
year and is down 56% from average USD 108/ bbl between 2011-2014. Increasing Shale
production in the United States was the primary driver for global glut which emerged in H2
2014. With OPEC deciding to hold ground in a bid to protect market share, oil prices have
corrected on the back of higher supply.
Figure 3 US crude production driven by shale output …
Figure 4
12.0
… leading to fall in US crude imports
Title:
Source:
10.0
11.0
9.5
10.0
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
9.0
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.0
8.0
6.0
7.5
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.5
3.0
US Shale production (mbpd)
Source: EIA, Bloomberg
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-15
Jun-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Feb-14
Oct-13
US total crude production (mbpd)
Dec-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Feb-13
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jun-12
6.0
Aug-12
2.0
US crude imports (mbpd)
Source: EIA
3
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Figure 5 OPEC increases output to maintain market share
Figure 6 Crude oversupply leads to price crash
Title:
Source:
33.0
120.0
32.5
110.0
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
32.0
100.0
31.5
90.0
31.0
80.0
30.5
Apr-15
Jun-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
8/21/2015
Source: Bloomberg
Jun-14
Feb-14
Oct-13
Dec-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Brent (USD/ bbl)
7/21/2015
OPEC production (mbpd)
Jun-13
40.0
Feb-13
28.5
Oct-12
50.0
Dec-12
60.0
Jun-12
29.5
29.0
Aug-12
70.0
30.0
WTI (USD/ bbl)
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 7 Baltic indices
Figure 8 Tanker rates on key routes
1600
900
1400
800
100,000 Title:
Source:
80,000
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
700
1200
600
60,000
1000
500
40,000
800
400
20,000
600
300
6/1/2013
6/1/2014
6/21/2015
5/21/2015
4/21/2015
2/21/2015
3/21/2015
1/21/2015
12/21/2014
11/21/2014
10/21/2014
9/21/2014
6/1/2015
Arabian Gulf to US Gulf
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
8/21/2014
7/21/2014
6/21/2014
5/21/2014
4/21/2014
(20,000)
0
2/21/2014
3/21/2014
0
6/1/2012
1/21/2014
100
12/21/2013
200
-
11/21/2013
200
10/21/2013
400
Baltic Clean Tanker Index (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
Arabian Gulf to Far East
West Africa to US Gulf
Source: Bloomberg
We expect freight rates to remain strong over the medium term, led by higher tonnage
shipped (higher demand due to low oil prices) and tight supply of VLCCs (increase in demand
for floating storage and approx. 2.5-3 years lag period for any new capacity to come on
stream).
Higher freight rates along with lower bunker fuel prices will result in further margin
improvement in the Crude oil transportation segment. We estimate the EBIT margin of
Crude oil transportation segment to clock approx. 28-29% by 2016/17. We also note the
sharp uptick in EBIT margins post Vela merger (30% in Q1FY15 vs. 21% in FY14, in the Crude
oil transportation segment), which can be attributable to the operating leverage in the system
triggered by higher global freight rates and lower bunker fuel costs.
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
4
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Figure 9 Expect robust margins in crude oil transportation segment
6,000
35.0
33.0
5,000
31.0
28.0
4,000
28.6
29.0
27.0
25.3
3,000
25.0
21.4
21.3
2,000
23.0
20.4
21.0
19.0
1,000
17.0
-
15.0
2012
2013
2014
2015E
Revenue (SAR mn)
2016E
2017E
EBIT margin (RHS)
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
Other segments’ performance healthy
We expect Bahri’s Petrochemical subsidiary – National Chemical Carriers (NCC) to witness
healthy organic growth supported by Kingdom’s emphasis on higher petrochemical
derivatives/ specialty chemicals production, which is expected to be ramped up over the next
few years (expected to be more than 100 mtpa, from 80-90 mtpa currently). SABIC, the
Kingdom’s largest Petrochemical producer is a 20% shareholder in NCC. Currently the
segment operates a fleet of 24 vessels. While we haven’t factored in fleet expansion, any
decision by the company to expand its fleet may be value accretive and is an upside risk.
General Cargo segment has ramped up well led by commissioning new fleet in 2014 and
strong customer agreements. General cargo segment (approx. 9% of revenue) and Dry Bulk
subsidiary (approx. 2% of revenue) have ramped up well led by fleet modernization and solid
customer agreements. Some of the customer agreements in General cargo segment include
contract with Ministry of Defence, Saudi Airlines Cargo Co. etc. Dry Bulk subsidiary (60%
held by Bahri) has 5 vessels which mainly cater to the needs of ARASCO (holds 40% in the
subsidiary), which is the largest importer of grain in the region.
Figure 10 Petrochemicals: Expect steady margin
1,000
Figure 11 Cargo segment: Expect revenue growth and steady margin
Title:
Source:
25.0
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
21.0
35.0
800
33.0
750
31.0
700
29.0
650
27.0
600
17.0
25.0
550
15.0
23.0
500
13.0
21.0
450
19.0
400
17.0
350
15.0
300
23.0
900
800
25.6
700
24.3
600
23.5
22.3
500
18.2
9.6
2013
2014
2015E
Revenue (SAR mn)
2016E
2017E
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
8.4
9.0
7.0
5.0
2013
EBIT margin (RHS)
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
11.0
8.9
7.3
400
300
19.0
17.8
2014
2015E
Revenue (SAR mn)
2016E
2017E
EBIT margin (RHS)
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
5
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Capital structure leaves headroom for growth
Bahri’s balance sheet is strong with leverage maintained at comfortable levels (we estimate
net debt/ equity at 0.8x and net debt/ EBITDA at 3.2x, at the end of 2015). We believe the
strong cash flow generation over the next few years will further reduce leverage (net debt/
equity) to less than 0.5x by end 2017. Also, Bahri maintained stable dividends (SAR 1 per
share over the last 3 years) and we believe the trend will sustain going forward. Given the
strong cash flows, we believe Bahri to be in strong position to capitalise on growth
opportunities going forward, and possibly increase dividend payout.
Figure 12 Leverage set to come down
1.00
8.00
0.90
7.00
0.80
6.00
0.70
5.00
0.60
0.50
4.00
0.40
3.00
0.30
2.00
0.20
1.00
0.10
-
2012
2013
2014
Net Debt/ Equity
2015E
2016E
2017E
Net Debt/ EBITDA (RHS)
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
6
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Valuation and SoTP table
We value Bahri using average of DCF and EV/EBITDA methodologies to capture - free cash
flows over the long run as well as medium term cyclicality.
The key assumptions for DCF are as follows, which yields a fair value of SAR 56:
Figure 13 Key DCF assumptions
Parameter
Rationale
Risk-free Rate
3.8% Based on 10 year average US rate along with additional spread
Adjusted Beta
1.0
Cost of Equity
10.2%
WACC
8.2% Assuming long term capital structure of 25% debt/ capital
Long term growth rate
3.0% Long run real GDP growth of KSA
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
However, using target EV/EBITDA multiple, fair value stands at SAR 35.7. We use a target
multiple of 8.5x EV/EBITDA which is approx. 20% premium to the global average (CY16
EV/EBITDA median). We believe Bahri deserves this premium on the back of high revenue
visibility and lower earnings volatility (arrangements with Saudi Aramco), investments in
VLCC fleet expansion and solid customer agreements in its other segments.
Using an equal weighted average of both methodologies, we arrive at a target price of SAR
45.9, which implies 22% upside from CMP of SAR 37.5.
Figure 14 Equal weighted TP
Method
Valuation
Weight
DCF
56.0
50%
EV/ EBITDA
35.7
50%
Value/sh
28.0
17.9
Target price
45.9
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
Key upside risks: Higher freight rates, margin uptick in petrochemical/ cargo segments
and merger synergies playing out.
Key downside risks: Discontinuance of bunker subsidy and softening of freight rates.
Other risks include higher commissioning of crude/ chemical carriers globally (due to current
higher freight rates), increase in bunker fuel costs and interest rate, middle east instability.
Figure 15 International peer valuation
RoE (% )
Mkt Cap
(USD mn)
CY14
P/E (x)
CY15E
CY16E
CY14
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY15E
CY16E
CY14
CY15E
CY16E
CHINA SHIPPING
5,674
1
4
5
48
18
14
22
19
17
BAHRI (NSCSA)
3,948
8
na
na
24
16
13
19
na
na
GOLAR LNG
3,309
(2)
(2)
(0)
(71)
(36)
(288)
88
438
55
TEEKAY CORP
2,403
(5)
12
8
(44)
17
17
10
7
6
ORIENT OVERSEAS
3,072
6
8
8
11
8
7
9
7
6
EURONAV SA
2,133
(4)
19
11
(34)
6
9
20
5
6
NEPTUNE ORIENT
1,547
(14)
18
0
(6)
(21)
66
25
10
8
SHIP FINANCE
1,489
10
16
15
12
7
7
14
10
9
NORDIC AMERICAN
1,303
(1)
12
11
(97)
11
12
19
7
8
6
TSAKOS ENERGY
678
2
14
12
25
5
4
11
6
DHT HOLDINGS
688
3
14
15
41
8
8
16
6
6
GOLDEN OCEAN
502
3
(11)
(3)
10
(5)
(10)
21
60
21
FRONTLINE LTD
534
NA
139
41
(2)
6
17
39
6
5
CONCORDIA MAR-B
103
1
8
4
82
5
8
11
7
7
58
4
na
na
21
na
na
14
na
na
GULF NAVIGATION
Average
0.8
19.2
9.7
1.4
3.3
(8.3)
22.6
45.3
12.3
Median
1.9
12.1
8.4
11.4
6.7
8.4
19.2
6.9
7.2
Source: Bloomberg, Note: Prices as of 13 September 2015
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
7
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Financials and outlook
Revenue
We expect 25% CAGR in consolidated revenue over 2014-2017, primarily led by Vela merger
in H2 2014. Crude oil transportation accounts for approx. 78% of consolidated revenue in
2015 and is the primary growth driver, with segment revenue expected to post 37% CAGR
over this period. Other segments viz. Petrochemical (11% of revenue), General cargo (9% of
revenue) and Dry Bulk (2% of revenue) are expected to post flattish revenue growth (0-8%
CAGR) due to no major additions to the fleet.
Figure 16 Revenue & EBIT snapshot
Figure 17 Revenue mix skewed towards Crude Oil post Vela merger
8,000
30%
7,000
90%
7,210
7,007
6,746
Title:
Source:
80%
6,000
25%
70%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
60%
5,000
50%
3,624
4,000
3,000
20%
40%
2,847
2,465
30%
1,627
2,000
1,000
575
1,899
1,823
15%
700
596
10%
-
10%
2012
2013
2014
Consolidated revenue
20%
2015E
EBIT
2016E
0%
2017E
2012
EBIT margin (RHS)
Crude Oil
Source: Al Rajhi Capital Note: Revenue growth in 2015 driven by Vela merger
2013
2014
Chemicals
2015E
2016E
General Cargo
2017E
Dry Bulk
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
Costs
Bunker fuel, which is used to power vessels, is one of the major cost elements for Bahri. Being
a derivative of crude oil, Bunker fuel prices track crude oil prices. Hence, in a low oil price
environment, Bunker fuel will be cheaper which will support margins.
Bunker fuel costs, net of bunker subsidy, declined to 15% of consolidated revenue in 1H 2015
from 28% in both 2013 and 2014, primarily driven by plunge in crude oil prices. Bahri is
entitled to a subsidy of 30% of the gross Bunker fuel price, subject to fulfilling certain
conditions. However, Bahri realized subsidy of 18% of gross bunker fuel costs in 1H and 22%
in 2014.
Figure 18 Net Bunker fuel costs as % of revenue
30.0%
27.8%
28.3%
Figure 19 Bunker subsidy as % of gross bunker fuel costs
28.2%
24.0%
Title:
Source:
22.9%
22.0%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
25.0%
20.0%
18.1%
18.1%
18.0%
20.0%
17.5%
15.7%
16.0%
16.3%
16.3%
2016E
2017E
15.8%
14.0%
15.0%
14.5%
12.0%
10.0%
10.0%
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2012
Net bunker fuel cost as % of revenue
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
2013
2014
2015E
Bunker subsidy as % of gross bunker fuel cost
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
8
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Margin
Freight rates, ton-miles (vessel utilization) and bunker fuel costs are the key determinants of
operating margin of tanker shipping companies in crude oil transportation segment. Over
the last year, Bahri has benefited from favourable movements in both the key revenue and
cost drivers, expanding operating margin to 27.5% for 1H2015 compared to 21% in 2014 and
20% in 2013 in crude oil transport segment (78% of consolidated revenue). While revenue
was supported by higher freight rates and integration of Vela assets, lower bunker fuel prices
helped drive down opex.
On similar lines, margins for Chemical transportation segment (10% of consolidated revenue)
increased to 25.5% in 1H2015 vs. 18% in 2014 and 22% in 2013 respectively.
Figure 20 Consolidated EBIT and EBIT margin
Figure 21 Segmental EBIT margin trend
2,000
35.0%
29.0%
1,800
1,400
1,200
26.3%
26.0%
1,600
30.0%
25.0%
24.1%
25.0%
23.0%
21.0%
800
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
27.0%
23.3%
1,000
Title:
Source:
21.0%
19.3%
600
20.0%
15.0%
19.0%
10.0%
17.0%
5.0%
15.0%
0.0%
400
200
2012
2013
2014
Consolidated EBIT
2015E
2016E
2017E
2012
EBIT margin
2013
Oil transportation
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
2014
Petrochemical
2015E
2016E
General Cargo
2017E
Dry Bulk
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
Return ratios
Expanding margins led by favourable sector trends will increase Bahri’s RoE to 16-17% in
2015 & 2016 each, compared to 13% for 2013 and 8% for 2014 respectively.
Figure 22 Consolidated RoE
Figure 23 Consolidated RoCE
18.0%
18.0%
17.2%
16.4%
16.0%
16.0%
14.0%
Title:
Source:
17.2%
16.4%
16.0%
16.0%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
13.4%
14.0%
13.4%
12.0%
12.0%
10.0%
9.3%
10.0%
7.8%
8.0%
9.3%
7.8%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
Source: Al Rajhi Capital
9
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Appendix
About the company
Bahri (The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia) was established in 1978 by a Royal
Decree as a Saudi Arabian joint stock company. The principal business activities of the Bahri
Group are Crude oil transportation, Gas & offshore services, Chemicals transportation, Dry
bulk transportation, General cargo transportation and ship management. Of these activities,
the chemicals operation is run through NCC (National Chemical Carriers), Dry bulk
operations are run through Bahri Dry Bulk and Ship management operations are run through
Mideast, each of which are subsidiaries of the Company. The Oil transportation and Gas &
offshore operations as well as the General cargo operations are run by the Company through
branch arrangements. NSCSA (America) Inc., a subsidiary of the Company, also runs general
cargo operations
Figure 24 Organizational structure
Source: Company data
The following is a summary of the key operating segments/ subsidiaries of Bahri
Crude Oil segment



In 1992, the Company entered the crude oil transportation segment through
ordering 5 VLCCs, which entered into service between 1996 and 1997. The
Company's VLCC business has steadily grown to become the Company's largest
business segment by reference to assets (60% of consolidated assets in 1H 2015) and
operating revenue (78% of consolidated revenue in 1H 2015). Following the
completion of Vela Transaction in H2 2014, the Company's VLCC fleet grew to 31
vessels, which is the 3rd largest fleet of VLCCs globally
Each of the Company's VLCCs has a capacity of at least 2.2 million barrels and a
dead weight tonnage of 300,000 tons. The VLCC fleet usually operates on both short
and long period time charters and in the spot market
Also, in 2005, as part of its strategic expansion and diversification, Bahri acquired a
minority shareholding in the LPG trading company, Petredec. Bahri owns 30.3%,
while the remaining 69.7 % is held by Haydock Holdings Limited
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
10
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Figure 25 Bahri VLCC fleet details
Name
DWT(MT)
Built
Type
Ramlah
300,361
1996G
Double-Hull
Ghawar
300,361
1996G
Double-Hull
Watban
300,361
1996G
Double-Hull
Hawtah
300,361
1996G
Double-Hull
Safaniyah
300,361
1997G
Double-Hull
Harad
302,700
2001G
Double-Hull
Marjan
302,977
2002G
Double-Hull
Safwa
302,977
2002G
Double-Hull
Abqaiq
302,977
2002G
Double-Hull
Hilwah
316,808
2002G
Double-Hull
Tinat
316,502
2002G
Double-Hull
Lulu
316,507
2003G
Double-Hull
Shiblah
316,476
2003G
Double-Hull
Wafrah
317,788
2007G
Double-Hull
Layla
317,821
2007G
Double-Hull
Jana
317,693
2008G
Double-Hull
Habari
317,664
2008G
Double-Hull
Khuzama
319,428
2008G
Double-Hull
Manifah
319,428
2008G
Double-Hull
Jaladi
319,428
2008G
Double-Hull
Jaham
319,428
2008G
Double-Hull
Shaybah
319,428
2008G
Double-Hull
Karan
319,410
2009G
Double-Hull
Kahla
317,361
2009G
Double-Hull
Dorra
317,693
2009G
Double-Hull
Ghazal
317,693
2009G
Double-Hull
Sahba
317,693
2009G
Double-Hull
Nisalah
319,141
2010G
Double-Hull
Ghinah
319,141
2010G
Double-Hull
Niban
319,286
2010G
Double-Hull
Farha
319,286
2010G
Double-Hull
Total
9,714,539
Source: Company data
Vela Merger structure

Bahri paid Vela a total consideration of approximately SAR 4.875 bn (equivalent to
USD 1.3 bn) in the form of cash payment of SAR 3.12 bn (equivalent to USD 0.833
mn) and issue of 78.75 million new shares of Bahri at price of SAR 22.25 per share

The new shares, which have been issued to a fully-owned subsidiary of Saudi
Aramco, will constitute 20% of Bahri’s capital
Petrochemicals (subsidiary)




In 1990, Bahri, in collaboration with the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation
(SABIC), founded the National Chemical Carriers Company (NCC). 80% of NCC is
held by Bahri and remaining 20% by SABIC
NCC specializes in the purchase, chartering and operation of chemical tankers to
transport chemicals and related products
In 2009, Bahri incorporated NCC Odfjell, a limited liability company based in
Dubai, owned equally between NCC and Odfjell International Company (one of the
largest global companies operating in the field of shipping chemicals around the
world). This company operated chemical tankers in the pool business between the
two parties. In June 2013, Bahri acquired share of Norwegian Odfjell SE in NCC
Odfjell and amicably dissolved the pool arrangement
NCC's fleet has grown considerably since it was incorporated and is currently one of
the largest chemical fleets in the world serving over 150 ports worldwide. NCC owns
24 vessels (with an average age of 6.7 years) which are able to transport a vast array
of chemical products that are used across a number of industries
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
11
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Figure 26 Petrochemical fleet
S.No Tanker
Weight
(DWT)
Year of
Building
No. of
Tanks
1
NCC Makkah
37,500
1995
52
2
NCC Riyadh
37,500
1995
52
3
NCC Jubail
37,500
1996
52
4
NCC Najd
46,200
2005
22
5
NCC Hijaz
46,200
2005
22
6
NCC Tihama
46,200
2006
22
7
NCC Abha
46,200
2006
22
8
NCC Tabuk
46,200
2006
22
9
NCC Qassim
46,200
2006
22
10
NCC Rabegh
46,200
2007
22
11
NCC Sudair
46,200
2007
22
12
NCC Dammam
46,200
2008
22
13
NCC Hail
46,200
2008
22
14
NCC Noor
45,600
2011
22
15
NCC Huda
45,600
2011
22
16
NCC Amal
45,600
2011
22
17
NCC Safa
45,600
2011
22
18
NCC Danah
45,600
2011
22
19
NCC Nesmah
45,600
2011
22
20
NCC Shams
45,600
2012
22
21
NCC Najm
45,600
2012
22
22
NCC Reem
45,600
2012
22
23
NCC Samaa
45,600
2012
22
24
NCC Fajr
75,000
2013
30
Total
1,105,500
Source: Company data

In 2014, NCC signed a 5 year time charter agreement (SAR 480 million) with a
subsidiary of Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) for 3 chemical tankers
with an option of further extending the agreement for 5 years. The company also
extended its charter contract with Sipchem
General Cargo segment


The Company operates its general cargo services across an extensive geographical
area, covering Middle East, Indian sub-continent, the east coast of North America
and the Mediterranean. The general cargo fleet also operates a liner service for the
carriage of both general cargoes and passengers from the east coast of the USA and
Canada to the Indian sub-continent
In 2013 and 2014, the Company expanded its business in this segment by taking
delivery of 6 new RoCon vessels, which have better capacity utilization and lower
fuel consumption than the Company's earlier four multipurpose RoRo vessels
Figure 27 General Cargo fleet
S.No Tanker
Weight
(DWT)
Capacity
(TEU container)
1
Bahri Abha
26,000
2,500
2
Bahri Hofuf
26,000
2,500
3
Bahri Tabuk
26,000
2,500
4
Bahri Jazan
26,000
2,500
5
Bahri Jeddah
26,000
2,500
6
Bahri Yanbu
26,000
2,500
156,000
15,000
Total
Source: Company data

The Company’s business has expanded by concluding long-term contracts with
important customers, such as the contract with Saudi Ministry of Defense (5 year
contract with a value of SAR 383 mn), Saudi Airlines Cargo Co (for 3 years to
transport urgent equipment and goods by air) etc, Ministry of Interior in the
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
12
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Kingdom (SAR 400 mn, the Company was appointed as an official carrier to
transport all new and old military equipment to and from the Kingdom)
Dry Bulk (Subsidiary)

On 28 August 2010, the Company and ARASCO (which is the largest dry bulk
importer in the region) incorporated Bahri Dry Bulk (BDB) as a joint venture
company. Bahri Dry Bulk specialises in the ownership, chartering and operation of
vessels transporting dry bulk commodities.
Bahri Dry Bulk operates 5 cargo vessels (bulk carriers). These vessels were received
between 2013 and 2014. All the vessels are chartered to ARASCO for the
transportation of ARASCO's grain imports and other dry bulk commodities. This
arrangement is long term agreement and expected to continue in the future.

Figure 28 Dry Bulk fleet
S.No Ship
Weight
(DWT)
1
Bahri Arasco
81,800
2
Bahri Grain
81,800
3
Bahri Bulk
81,800
4
Bahri Wafi
81,800
5
Bahri Trader
81,800
Total
409,000
Source: Company data
Historical segment financials snapshot
Figure 29 Segmental Financials
Units
2011
2012
2013
2014
1H 2015
Crude oil segment
Revenue
SAR mn
% YoY
%
1,227
1,474
1,507
2,152
2,688
-15%
20%
2%
43%
EBIT
240%
SAR mn
143
315
308
461
740
EBIT margin
%
12%
21%
20%
21%
28%
Segment Assets
SAR mn
5,415
5,240
5,273
11,122
10,214
395
Petrochemicals
Revenue
SAR mn
363
441
664
800
% YoY
%
36%
22%
51%
21%
-1%
EBIT
SAR mn
152
145
148
146
101
EBIT margin
%
Segment Assets
SAR mn
42%
33%
22%
18%
26%
3,647
3,705
3,490
3,366
3,360
General Cargo
Revenue
SAR mn
401
510
562
550
314
% YoY
%
19%
27%
10%
-2%
13%
EBIT
SAR mn
44
106
100
40
27
EBIT margin
%
11%
21%
18%
7%
9%
Segment Assets
SAR mn
542
973
1,730
1,783
1,763
Revenue
SAR mn
401
510
562
550
314
% YoY
%
0%
0%
191%
6%
-12%
EBIT
SAR mn
EBIT margin
%
Segment Assets
SAR mn
Dry Bulk
0
8
41
54
27
0%
2%
7%
10%
9%
199
209
413
696
696
Source: Company data
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
13
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Shipping industry overview
Tanker Market Fundamentals
Tankers are ships designed to transport liquids in bulk, by way of seaborne movement of
cargo. They transport a wide variety of liquid cargoes such as crude oil and petroleum
products, chemicals and vegetable oil. Oil and gas products contributed 30% to the total
global seaborne trade in 2013.
Figure 30 Oil accounts for 30% of total cargo shipped globally
60%
45
40
50%
35
40%
30
25
30%
20
20%
15
10
10%
5
0%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
2006
Total cargo (trn tons) - RHS
2007
2008
Oil & Gas
2009
2010
Main Bulks
2011
2012
2013
Other Dry Cargo
Source: Company data
Saudi Oil Transportation Market

The Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) is the state-owned oil company of the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). It manages the world's largest proven conventional
crude oil and condensate reserves of approximately 265.8 billion barrels as at 2013,
representing approximately 18 per cent of the world's proven crude oil reserves.

In 2014, Saudi Aramco produced 9.7 mbpd of crude oil through its main oil facilities in
Abqaiq, Haradh, Khurais, Khursaniyah, Nuayyim, Qatif and Shaybah. Of this, Saudi
Aramco exported on average 7.1 mbpd or approximately 73 per cent of its production.
Asia was the main importer of Saudi crude oil (67%) followed by North America (18%)
and Europe (13%).

The Saudi Arabian oil transportation market is closely linked to Saudi Aramco's oil
production and exports. Between 70% to 90% of Saudi Aramco's export volumes are sold
on FOB basis. For the remaining export volumes sold on Cost, Insurance and Freight
basis, Bahri has been the primary provider of shipping services to Saudi Aramco.
Types of Tanker Vessels
Tankers are categorised depending on their deadweight tonnage ("DWT") and their cargo
carrying capacity. Tanker demand can be categorised into six primary sectors based on the
type of tanker which are:
Figure 31 Tanker Size Classes
Vessel Class Description
Deadweight Range
(tons)
Capacity
('000 barrels)
VLCC
Very Large Crude Carrier
200,000 To 319,999
2,000
Suezmax
Crude Carrier
120,000 To 199,999
1,000
Aframax/ LR2
Clean/Crude Carrier
75,000 To 119,999
750
Panamax/ LR1 Crude/Clean/Chemicals/Products Carrier
55,000 To 74,999
400
MR2
Medium Range Clean/Chemicals Products Carrier
40,000 To 54,999
360
MR1
Medium Range Clean/Chemicals Products Carrier
27,500 To 39,999
270
Handy
Clean/Chemicals Products Carrier
10,000 To 27,499
180
Source: Company data
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
14
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Tanker Demand
VLCC demand: This is the most predictable across all vessel classes since these large
tankers are used to move substantial volumes of crude oil from a relatively small number of
producing regions to the most prominent demand markets across the globe.
Figure 32 Single voyages by class, 2014 - Dirty Petroleum
Figure 33 Single voyages by class, 2014 - Clean Petroleum
Panamax, 8%
Title:
Source:
VLCC, 23%
MR1, 10%
LR2, 14%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report
LR1, 15%
Aframax, 41%
Suezmax, 28%
MR2, 61%
Source: Company data
Source: Company data

The Arabian gulf to East trade continues to serve as the principal trade route in the VLCC
sector. Fast paced economic expansion in non-OECD Asia is driving demand.

The Arabian Gulf to US trade decreased by 7% from 2013 levels, however it remains the
second largest trade in the VLCC sector. Exports to the US have steadily decreased since
2003, sliding from 2.3 mbpd in 2003 to 0.8m mbpd in October, 2014, impacted by rising
North American production.
Figure 34 Major routes for Bahri VLCCs (by number of voyages)
(% voyages)
2010
2011
2012
2013
Arabian Gulf/ Far East
44
45
23
1
2014
1
Arabian Gulf/ USA
25
30
41
48
35
West Atlantic / Far East
31
25
36
51
28
Arabian Gulf / Red Sea
0
0
0
0
7
Red Sea
0
0
0
0
23
Other
0
0
0
0
6
Source: Company data
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
15
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Chemical Tanker Demand: Total chemical tanker demand includes global seaborne trade
of commodity chemicals as well as vegetable oils, which closely tracks global GDP growth.
Asia remains the largest driver for chemical shipments, accounting for 70% market share by
count. Seaborne trade of chemicals occupies approximately 20% of total global production.
Tanker Supply
Three factors determine tonnage supply available to transport existing demand:

Addition of new vessels that are delivered from shipyards,

Vessels that are removed for scrapping or conversion to non-oil transporting vessels, and

Reduction in supply due to factors that limit the actual availability or utilization of
vessels
Tanker vessel supply can be affected in the short term by several factors ranging from
demand for floating storage of crude oil or refined petroleum products to port congestion that
reduces vessel availability, and in certain cases, by the geographical dislocation due to
unforeseen factors such as extreme weather conditions. The supply of tankers across the fleet
has as much impact on the freight rates being traded as does the demand for crude oil and
clean petroleum products transportation.
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
16
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Income Statement (SARmn)
Revenue
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
2,847
3,624
6,746
7,007
7,210
(1,207)
(1,142)
(1,302)
(1,484)
1,903
2,417
5,604
5,705
5,726
(1,401)
(1,839)
(4,085)
(3,997)
(3,946)
1,519
1,708
1,780
(2,458)
(4,477)
(4,560)
(4,685)
1,166
2,268
2,447
2,524
(943)
12/17E
Government Charges
S.G. & A. Costs
Operating EBIT
Cash Operating Costs
EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortisation
502
(1,875)
972
578
(470)
(588)
Operating Profit
502
578
Net financing income/(costs)
231
25
(750)
1,519
(7)
(739)
(744)
1,708
1,780
10
25
Forex and Related Gains
Provisions
-
Other Income
106
-
(1)
-
-
4
4
10
1,515
1,721
1,815
Other Expenses
Net Profit Before Taxes
839
602
Taxes
(50)
(41)
(136)
(129)
Minority Interests
(37)
(28)
(50)
(51)
Net profit available to shareholders
752
534
(315)
(394)
(394)
(394)
(394)
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
315.0
393.8
393.8
393.8
393.8
4.00
3.24
5.41
5.92
6.15
EPS (SAR)
2.388
1.507
3.377
3.916
4.134
DPS (SAR)
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Dividends
1,330
1,542
(136)
(52)
1,628
Transfer to Capital Reserve
Adjusted Shares Out (mn)
CFPS (SAR)
Growth
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
Revenue Growth
15.5%
27.3%
86.2%
3.9%
2.9%
Gross Profit Growth
19.7%
27.0%
131.9%
1.8%
0.4%
9.9%
19.9%
94.6%
7.9%
3.2%
Operating Profit Growth
10.7%
15.1%
162.7%
12.5%
4.2%
Net Profit Growth
49.3%
-29.0%
149.1%
15.9%
5.6%
-36.9%
124.2%
15.9%
5.6%
EBITDA Growth
EPS Growth
Margins
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
Gross profit margin
66.9%
66.7%
83.1%
81.4%
79.4%
EBITDA margin
34.1%
32.2%
33.6%
34.9%
35.0%
Operating Margin
17.6%
16.0%
22.5%
24.4%
24.7%
Pretax profit margin
29.5%
16.6%
22.5%
24.6%
25.2%
Net profit margin
26.4%
14.7%
19.7%
22.0%
22.6%
Other Ratios
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
ROCE
4.7%
4.7%
9.7%
10.6%
10.6%
ROIC
5.0%
5.3%
9.2%
10.5%
10.8%
ROE
13.4%
7.8%
16.4%
17.2%
16.0%
5.9%
6.8%
9.0%
7.5%
7.5%
Capex/Sales
32.9%
96.3%
13.9%
12.0%
12.0%
Dividend Payout Ratio
41.9%
73.8%
29.6%
25.5%
24.2%
Valuation Measures
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
15.7
24.9
11.1
9.6
9.1
P/CF (x)
9.4
11.6
6.9
6.3
6.1
P/B (x)
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.4
EV/Sales (x)
5.5
5.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
16.2
16.6
9.3
8.3
7.6
EV/EBIT (x)
31.3
33.5
13.9
11.8
10.8
Effective Tax Rate
P/E (x)
EV/IC (x)
Dividend Yield
Source: Company data, Al Rajhi Capital
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
17
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
Balance Sheet (SARmn)
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
Cash and Cash Equivalents
12/13A
344
12/14A
414
180
520
1,031
Current Receivables
624
667
768
799
822
Inventories
223
315
270
280
288
Other current assets
235
418
451
469
483
Total Current Assets
1,427
1,814
1,669
2,069
2,624
Fixed Assets
9,189
12,989
13,207
13,309
13,430
Investments
883
916
977
977
977
Goodwill
-
904
876
876
876
Other Intangible Assets
-
-
-
-
-
Total Other Assets
498
494
482
480
477
Total Non-current Assets
10,570
15,303
15,543
15,643
15,762
Total Assets
11,997
17,117
17,212
17,712
18,386
Short Term Debt
901
4,018
650
624
599
Accounts Payable
283
488
648
647
666
Accrued Expenses
-
-
-
-
-
Dividends Payable
Other Current Liabilities
32
-
34
36
36
10
5
5
36
5
Total Current Liabilities
1,355
4,696
1,527
1,508
1,508
Long-Term Debt
4,377
4,153
6,779
6,101
5,491
Other LT Payables
31
31
31
31
31
Provisions
47
53
53
50
50
4,454
4,236
6,862
6,182
5,571
Total Non-current Liabilities
Minority interests
342
369
420
470
522
Paid-up share capital
3,150
3,938
3,938
3,938
3,938
Total Reserves
2,696
3,878
4,466
5,614
6,847
Total Shareholders' Equity
5,846
7,815
8,403
9,551
10,785
Total Equity
6,187
8,184
8,823
10,021
11,307
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
11,997
17,117
17,212
17,712
18,386
Ratios
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
4,933
7,756
7,249
6,204
5,058
5.08
6.65
3.20
2.54
2.00
79.7%
94.8%
82.2%
61.9%
44.7%
Net Debt (SARmn)
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)
Net Debt to Equity
EBITDA Interest Cover (x)
BVPS (SAR)
Cashflow Statement (SARmn)
(45.7)
303.0
(244.6)
(100.6)
18.56
(4.2)
19.85
21.34
24.26
27.39
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
Net Income before Tax & Minority Interest
839
602
1,515
1,721
1,815
Depreciation & Amortisation
470
588
750
739
744
Decrease in Working Capital
(270)
(114)
68
(52)
(20)
Other Operating Cashflow
(288)
(60)
(28)
(129)
(136)
Cashflow from Operations
Capital Expenditure
751
1,016
(936)
(3,490)
2,305
(936)
2,279
(841)
2,403
(865)
New Investments
145
97
(21)
2
2
Others
(52)
(64)
(30)
(3)
(0)
(843)
(3,457)
(93)
(2,441)
(314)
(313)
Cashflow from investing activities
Net Operating Cashflow
Dividends paid to ordinary shareholders
Proceeds from issue of shares
-
Increase in Loans
398
Effects of Exchange Rates on Cash
-
Other Financing Cashflow
(10)
Cashflow from financing activities
74
-
(987)
1,318
(738)
-
2,893
-
(742)
-
(2)
2,578
74
(1,406)
(841)
1,438
(394)
(704)
-
(863)
1,540
(394)
(635)
-
-
-
(1,098)
(1,029)
Total cash generated
(19)
137
(88)
340
Cash at beginning of period
392
344
414
180
520
Implied cash at end of year
374
481
327
520
1,031
Ratios
Capex/Sales
Source: Company data, Al Rajhi Capital
Disclosures Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this report.
511
12/13A
12/14A
12/15E
12/16E
12/17E
32.9%
96.3%
13.9%
12.0%
12.0%
18
National Shipping Company of
Saudi Arabia
Transport – Industrial
14 September 2015
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19