Multivariate Analysis of Stream Substrates in Subpopulations of Harperella (Ptilimnium nodosum (Rose) Mathias: Apiaceae) at Sideling Hill Creek, Maryland, USA Author(s) :Christopher T. Frye and Samantha M. Tessel Source: Castanea, 77(1):2-10. 2012. Published By: Southern Appalachian Botanical Society DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2179/11-023 URL: http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.2179/11-023 BioOne (www.bioone.org) is a nonprofit, online aggregation of core research in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences. BioOne provides a sustainable online platform for over 170 journals and books published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses. Your use of this PDF, the BioOne Web site, and all posted and associated content indicates your acceptance of BioOne’s Terms of Use, available at www.bioone.org/page/ terms_of_use. Usage of BioOne content is strictly limited to personal, educational, and non-commercial use. Commercial inquiries or rights and permissions requests should be directed to the individual publisher as copyright holder. BioOne sees sustainable scholarly publishing as an inherently collaborative enterprise connecting authors, nonprofit publishers, academic institutions, research libraries, and research funders in the common goal of maximizing access to critical research. CASTANEA 77(1): 2–10. MARCH 2012 Copyright 2012 Southern Appalachian Botanical Society Multivariate Analysis of Stream Substrates in Subpopulations of Harperella (Ptilimnium nodosum (Rose) Mathias: Apiaceae) at Sideling Hill Creek, Maryland, USA Christopher T. Frye1* and Samantha M. Tessel2 Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Wildlife and Heritage Service, Natural Heritage Program, Wye Mills Field Office, PO Box 68, Wye Mills, Maryland 21679 2 Curriculum for the Environment and Ecology, 207 Coates Building, CB#3275, UNC-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599 1 ABSTRACT Harperella (Ptilimnium nodosum) is a federally endangered plant species with a large population along Sideling Hill Creek, Allegany and Washington Counties, Maryland. Monitoring of this species is difficult owing to the unpredictable flood events that change the distribution and composition of stream substrates of its rocky shoal habitat. We characterized substrate types in 80 quadrats using two methods of nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS and MDS). We employed multiple-response permutation procedure (MRPP) to examine differences in substrate composition between habitats occupied (N 5 52) and unoccupied (N 5 28) by Harperella. The NMS and MDS ordinations show that Harperella cover and amount of fine sediments are positively associated. Harperella occupies specific microhabitat with high cover of fine sediments, often held in crevices of exposed bedrock. The MRPP results demonstrated that substrate composition in occupied versus unoccupied habitats differ significantly. This difference is chiefly attributable to cover of fine sediments in occupied habitats and cobble, gravel, and sand in unoccupied habitats. We conclude that the local distribution and abundance of Harperella patches in Sideling Hill Creek is constrained by the abundance of appropriate substrate microhabitat in any given year and recommend that annual census be modified to focus on large persistent patches. Key words: Harperella, multiple-response permutation procedure, nonmetric multidimensional scaling, Sideling Hill Creek, stream substrates. INTRODUCTION Harperella (Ptilimnium nodosum (Rose) Mathias; Apiaceae) is a federally endangered plant species native to rocky streams in Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas, and nonriparian habitats in South Carolina and Georgia. Twenty-four populations are extant: nine in Arkansas, and one to three in each of the other states (USFWS 2008). Rose (1906, 1911) originally described three taxa in the genus Harperella (transferred to Ptilimnium by Mathias [1936]) based upon ecological discontinuities: H. nodosum, a plant of pools and ponds; H. fluviatilis, a plant of rocky streams; and H. viviparum, also a plant of rocky streams but differing in the production of late-season vegetative ramets. Kress et al. (1994) provided some genetic basis (isozymes) for these assignments and more recently Feist and Downie (2008) found evidence of some geographical structuring in nuclear rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences. However, until the taxonomic complexities of the genus are resolved, we will follow Kral’s (1981) treatment as P. nodosum s.l. and hereafter use the common name Harperella in this manuscript. A large population of Harperella is extant along Sideling Hill Creek, in Washington and *email address: [email protected] Received June 27, 2011; Accepted September 2, 2011. DOI: 10.2179/11-023 2 2012 FRYE, TESSEL: STREAM SUBSTRATES IN HARPERELLA HABITATS Allegany Counties, Maryland. Riverine Harperella habitat is dynamic and plants appear, disappear, and reappear according to naturally occurring changes in stream flow and in response to physical reworking of stream substrates during periodic flood events. Water flow peaks in Sideling Hill during winter and spring months but lies at less than full bank during much of the late summer and fall when rocky shoals and bedrock are exposed. Harperella occurs along Sideling Hill in ephemeral and persistent stands (based on 20 yr of monitoring data). Plants flower in July and August, releasing seed in September and October. Germination can occur immediately (Maddox and Bartgis 1992), and seed germination rates have been reported as high as 83% (Wells et al. 2004). In the fall, asexual reproduction occurs as a production of vegetative offshoots from the base and nodal buds along culms. The parent rosette, vegetative shoots, and seedlings are all capable of overwintering. The ramet/genet ratio in patches is unknown. Typical of annuals, Harperella population sizes may fluctuate dramatically from year to year. During the last 20 yr of demographic and life-history studies of Harperella at Sideling Hill Creek, one enigmatic feature of Harperella ecology has repeatedly emerged—unoccupied but apparently suitable habitat is abundant in Sideling Hill Creek and in closely adjacent watersheds, yet the species’ local distribution remains patchy and newly founded patches are rarely persistent. Microhabitat features are suspected to play an important role in colonization and persistence of Harperella (Maddox and Bartgis 1989, Wells et al. 2004, Marcinko 2007). Frequently noted are sites that (a) allow full sun during most of the day, (b) simultaneously offer protection from severe erosion while receiving annual scouring during natural high flow events in the spring, and (c) exhibit a narrow range of water depths during flowering and fruiting periods (USFWS 1990, Maddox and Bartgis 1992, Wells and Ingram 2003, Wells et al. 2004). Apparently suitable but unoccupied habitat (e.g., cobble and gravel bars) occurs over large areas along Sideling Hill Creek (Maddox and Bartgis 1989). This pattern has also been observed in Fifteenmile Creek in Maryland (where a single patch is known) and 3 along streams in West Virginia and Arkansas (P.J. Harmon, botanist, West Virginia Natural Heritage Program, pers. comm.; T. Witsell, botanist, Arkansas Natural Heritage Program, pers. comm.). Our approach to examining Harperella habitat focuses on the stream substrates in which the plants are rooted. We use substrate type defined by particle size class as a variable characterizing Harperella habitat. Thus, we use multivariate techniques to investigate the influence of substrate compositions on Harperella abundance. We utilize techniques common to community ecologists, namely quadrat-based sampling using cover estimates followed by analyses using nonparametric ordination procedures to describe and visualize the breadth of variation in substrate composition (Peet et al. 1986, McCune and Grace 2002). Our sampling effort focused on sections of Sideling Hill Creek where Harperella is known to occur with regularity (based on 20 yr of census data). Specifically we ask the following questions: 1. Is there evidence that the current distribution and abundance of Harperella along Sideling Hill Creek represents occupation of a narrow range of substrate composition? 2. Are there differences in substrate composition between occupied (Harperella present) and unoccupied (Harperella absent) habitats? The influence of stream substrate types on conservation of Harperella has received little attention (but see Maddox and Bartgis 1989). This seems to be an oversight. The range of sites that may be potential Harperella habitat has been examined using transplanted material from the Sideling Hill population. Transplant experiments into unoccupied but apparently suitable habitat have had dismal success rates along the Potomac mainstem (Maddox and Bartgis 1992, Wells et al. 2004) and have been equivocal within Sideling Hill. Maddox and Bartgis (1989) found that survivorship of plants planted at ‘‘home’’ (occupied) versus ‘‘away’’ (unoccupied but apparently suitable) was higher; however, four ‘‘away’’ sites performed nearly as well but survivorship was not tracked past 30 d. A second transplant experiment (Maddox and 4 CASTANEA Table 1. List of standard stream substrate classes (abbreviated) and their qualitative scales and diameters in millimeters Stream Substrate Class (diameter) Qualitative Scale and Size Bedrock Cob 180+ Cob 128 Cob 90 Cob 64 Cob 45 Cob 32 Cob 22.6 Grav 16 Grav 11 Grav 8 Sand Fine Immovable, determined in the field Large cobble $180 mm Large cobble 128 mm Medium cobble 90 mm Medium cobble 64 mm Medium cobble 45 mm Small cobble 32 mm Small cobble 22.6 mm Large gravel 16 mm Medium gravel 11 mm Small gravel 8 mm Particles 2.8–5.6 mm Fine sediments #2 mm Bartgis 1992) resulted in high mortality among all transplants after 320 d but a small but significant portion of the ‘‘home’’ transplants survived. If there are particular substrate types where Harperella abundance is maximized, then long-term monitoring of the dynamics and persistence of these habitats should be a conservation priority. Alternatively, the absence of differences in substrate composition in occupied versus unoccupied habitat would suggest that other factors (light, water depth, etc.) and not stream substrate are responsible for the observed patterns of Harperella colonization and persistence. Field Site Description Sideling Hill Creek is a 40-km-long stream in the Ridge and Valley Physiographic Province that originates in Bedford and Fulton Counties, Pennsylvania, and flows south to the Potomac River in Maryland about 130 km northwest of Washington, DC. The topography is rolling to steep over much of the watershed, and Sideling Hill Creek has cut deep into Devonian shales and sandstones of the Chemung and Hampshire formations. Elevation drops from 204 m at the Pennsylvania line to 125 m at the Potomac River. METHODS In an annual Harperella census (2007) along Sideling Hill Creek, we established 45 Global Positioning System waypoints (buffered to 30 m) over 9.2 km of streamside habitat where Harperella occurred. Estimates of Harperella abundance among these way- VOL. 77 points varied from fewer than 10 stems to .1,000 stems over each 30 m of stream bank. We used these waypoints as locations to sample: (a) the relative cover of 13 stream substrate sizes (identified in Table 1), and (b) the relative cover of Harperella in individual 0.25-m2 quadrats. The choice of sampling grain (0.25 m2) is sufficient to capture most substrate sizes and was small enough to allow efficient cover estimation. We used a handheld device called a Gravelometer (also known as a gravel template and pebble meter) to measure gravel- and cobble-sized bed sediments in the field. Constructed of 3.2-mm aluminum, it has 14 square holes of common sieve sizes (1/2-phi unit classes) ranging in diameter from 2 mm to 180 mm (available from Wildco, Wildlife Supply Company, Buffalo, New York). For ease of estimation in the field, we aggregated the 2.8- to 5.6-mm-diameter particle sizes into one class we called Sand. We considered Bedrock any large continuous band of consolidated rock that was immovable. The Cob 180+ class is the group of large, movable rock $180 mm diameter. In practice, the Cob 180+ class was rare in our sample and most members of this group were ,400 mm. We estimated relative cover using a nine-point scale commonly employed in vegetation surveys (1 5 trace, 2 5 ,1%, 3 5 1–2%, 4 5 2–5%, 5 5 5–10%, 6 5 10–25%, 7 5 25–50%, 8 5 50–75%, 9 5 75– 100%), modified from Peet et al. (1986). Cover estimates of substrate sizes represents a ‘‘bird’seye view’’ of the substrates visible at the surface. Care was taken to carefully excavate and replace cobble. Small gravel-sized substrates were removed with forceps. A single observer made all cover measurements over a 48-hr period where no weather events impacted stream levels. We randomized the 45 waypoints using a random draw and at each waypoint we established a series of five potential quadrat locations using a random integer generator, marking each location with a wire flag. Harperella habitat is neither continuous nor uniform so there is some subjectivity in the placement of quadrats. For example, a quadrat that would have been necessarily placed in a deep pool or vertically at a cliff wall was skipped and we used the next quadrat location in the series. To limit observer bias in the orientation of the quadrat, a polyvinyl chloride quadrat frame 2012 FRYE, TESSEL: STREAM SUBSTRATES IN HARPERELLA HABITATS was tossed at the flags from a distance of a few meters. We obtained 52 quadrats where Harperella was present and 28 quadrats that were unoccupied but within the waypoint buffer, for example, within the habitat area known to hold Harperella. We are aware of the potential for autocorrelation to affect our analysis, especially in a linear system where everything is potentially spatially correlated. To address this potential source of error, we examined a multivariate Mantel correlogram of the substrate data and saw no evidence of strong spatial autocorrelation (data not shown). For our analyses we use four data matrices: (a) a quadrat by substrate matrix (52 3 13) to explore patterns of substrate composition among the occupied quadrats, (b) a quadrat by substrate matrix (80 3 13) to explore patterns of substrate preference in all quadrats (occupied and unoccupied), (c) a quadrat by Harperella cover (52 3 1) matrix for use as a second matrix to examine the correlations between Harperella cover in occupied quadrats and ordination axes in substrate space, and (d) a quadrat by group (80 3 1) matrix identifying the quadrat as occupied or unoccupied. We used nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) as employed in PC-ORD (v. 3.04, MjM Software, Gleneden Beach, Oregon) to explore patterns of substrate composition in our quadrats. NMS is commonly used by community ecologists to examine patterns of species composition among communities and has rapidly become the method of choice for ecological data (see Clarke 1993, McCune and Grace 2002). NMS is an indirect ordination technique that works without assuming that a species responds to environmental gradients in a linear or unimodal fashion and is robust to large numbers of zero values. The strategy of NMS is to locate samples in a reduceddimension ordination space such that the difference (stress) between the distances in high-dimensional space and distances in the two-dimensional plot of the ordination have the same rank order. NMS does not provide a single solution or configuration of sample units. The strength of NMS with ecological data is that any solution should show the same underlying patterns. We used the raw cover values and set Euclidean distance as the measure for constructing the distance matrix. 5 The NMS procedure in PC-ORD also calculates parametric Pearson (r) and nonparametric Kendall (tau) correlation coefficients to examine correlations between ordination space and input variables (e.g., cover of a particular substrate) and between ordination space and a second matrix (e.g., Harperella occurrence or abundance). The familiar Pearson (r) correlation coefficients are reported here generally for descriptive purposes, as the statistical distributions of ordinal cover data rarely meet the assumptions of parametric statistics. Additionally, outliers in correlation analyses, especially in data sets dominated by zeroes that are typical of species/community data, have a strong effect on the resulting coefficients whether parametric or nonparametric. We performed multiple trial runs with NMS using 50 runs of real data and 100 runs of randomized data to determine the optimal number of axes. For each run, we used a maximum of 400 iterations until we obtained minimum stress (good fit) and a stable solution. Additionally, we use multidimensional scaling using the Kruskal algorithm (called MDS) employed in SYSTAT 12 (SYSTAT Software, San Jose, California, www.systat.com) to illustrate relationships of occupied and unoccupied quadrats to substrates in low-dimensional space. For this analysis we used the nonmetric unfolding model applied to a rank-ordered matrix. The MDS plots quadrats in a lowdimensional space in a manner similar to NMS in PC-ORD but differs in that the resulting graph is a plot of all quadrats and their factors (substrates) wherein each quadrat occurs closest to the coordinate of its preferred substrate. The graph may be interpreted similarly to a factor analysis. We used multiple-response permutation procedure (MRPP as employed in PC-ORD), a multivariate analog of analysis of variance to test the null hypothesis of no significant differences in substrate composition between occupied and unoccupied habitat. Details of the method may be found in Mielke and Berry (2001). The strategy of MRPP is to compare the observed intragroup average distances with the average distances that would have resulted from all the other possible combinations of the data under the null hypothesis. The test statistic, usually symbolized with a lowercase delta, d, is the average of the 6 CASTANEA VOL. 77 Figure 1. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) ordination of occupied quadrats (N 5 52). The central vector shows direction of increasing Harperella cover; substrate vectors are interpretations of the ordination axes. observed intragroup distances weighted by relative group size. The observed delta (dobs) is compared to the possible deltas (d) resulting from every permutation of the data. The MRPP reports a test statistic (T) describing the separation between groups, a measure of effect size (A) describing within-group agreement, and a p-value representing the likelihood of finding an equal or smaller delta than the observed based on all possible partitions of the data set using the Pearson Type III distribution of deltas. We used Euclidean distance and a ranked distance matrix following the protocols in McCune and Grace (2002). A small constant (0.001) was added to elements of the matrix to replace zeroes. RESULTS Nonmetric Scaling Ordinations The NMS substrate ordination of the 52 occupied quadrats stabilized after 200 iterations with a final stress of 8.00180, a final instability of 0.00005, and optimal dimensionality of three axes. Harperella cover was used as a second matrix in the ordination to examine correlations between Harperella cover and gradients along ordination axes. Coefficients of determination (r2) for the three axes cumulatively accounted for 95.1% of the variation in the data. Axes 1 (NMS1, r2 5 32.9%) and 2 (NMS2, r2 5 37.2%) were chosen for interpretation as they cumulatively accounted for the greatest variation in the data. The NMS scatterplot (Figure 1) represents the occupied quadrats as points in ordination (substrate size) space. The central vector line indicates the magnitude and direction of the correlation of Harperella cover along NMS1 (r 5 0.490, tau 5 0.360). The spatial arrangement of quadrats with high Harperella cover corresponded well to quadrats with high cover of Fine sediments. Correlation coefficients between raw Harperella cover and cover of Fine sediments in occupied quadrats are significant (r 5 0.500, Spearman’s rho 5 0.534 [p , 0.001]). Pearson and Kendall correlations of individual substrate sizes with substrate ordination axes FRYE, TESSEL: STREAM SUBSTRATES IN HARPERELLA HABITATS 2012 7 Table 2. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) correlations (r and tau) between substrates and ordination axes. r . 0.5 shown in bold. See Table 1 for list of stream substrate classes NMS 1 NMS 2 NMS 3 Substrate r r2 tau r r2 tau r r2 tau Bedrock Cob180+ Cob 128 Cob 90 Cob 64 Cob 45 Cob 32 Cob 22.6 Grav 16 Grav 11 Grav 8 Sand Fine 20.802 0.067 20.142 0.017 0.133 0.079 20.051 20.161 20.225 20.170 20.398 20.390 0.805 0.643 0.004 0.020 0.000 0.018 0.006 0.003 0.026 0.051 0.029 0.158 0.152 0.648 20.653 20.030 20.014 0.028 0.118 0.092 20.012 20.108 20.196 20.188 20.274 20.220 0.644 0.814 20.293 20.555 20.558 20.540 20.481 20.502 20.577 20.569 20.543 20.360 20.415 20.146 0.663 0.086 0.308 0.312 0.292 0.232 0.252 0.333 0.324 0.295 0.130 0.172 0.021 0.664 20.240 20.476 20.398 20.443 20.434 20.434 20.491 20.478 20.463 20.361 20.396 20.031 20.322 0.948 0.052 20.268 20.163 20.260 20.079 20.029 0.121 0.373 0.304 0.051 0.147 0.103 0.898 0.003 0.072 0.027 0.068 0.006 0.001 0.015 0.139 0.092 0.003 0.022 20.219 0.683 0.101 20.260 20.149 20.268 20.118 20.064 0.092 0.152 0.150 0.030 0.193 show some strong relationships (Table 2). Quadrats with positive scores along axis 1 reflect a strong association (r 5 0.805, tau 5 0.644) with Fine sediments (,2.0 mm in diameter) whereas quadrats with negative scores reflect a strong association (r 5 20.802, tau 5 20.653) with Bedrock. Along axis 2, quadrats with positive scores reflect a singular association with Bedrock (r 5 0.814, tau 5 0.664) whereas quadrats with negative scores reflect an association with all Cobble, Gravel, and Sand (see Table 2). Bedrock and Fine sediments are the major components driving the NMS ordination; the other substrate sizes contribute little to the overall configuration of points. The MDS ordination of all 80 quadrats resulted in two dimensions with a final stress of 0.070 (ranges between 0 and 1 in SYSTAT). Coefficients of determination for the two axes account for 70.1% of the variation in the data. Figure 2 shows occupied versus unoccupied quadrats and their proximities/affinities for a given substrate. Similar to the NMS ordination, we interpret three factors that are responsible for the configuration. The first factor is the set of Cobble, Gravel, and Sand; the second factor is Bedrock; and the third factor is Fine sediments. In Figure 2 we see that the majority of unoccupied plots occur close to the coordinates of Cobble (all sizes), Gravel (all sizes), and Sand, whereas the occupied plots occur throughout the graph but group to the positive side of dimension 1 close to the coordinates of Bedrock and Fine sediments. Multiple-Response Permutation Procedure Substrate composition in habitats occupied (n 5 52) and unoccupied (n 5 28) by Harperella differed significantly (T 5 29.111, A 5 0.075, p , 0.0001). Average within-group distance (0.390) of the occupied quadrats is smaller than the average within-group distance of the unoccupied quadrats (0.596), indicating a narrower range of substrate compositions that provide Harperella habitat. We compared the magnitude of the T-statistic within each substrate class for occupied and unoccupied habitats (Table 3). Significant p-values (p , 0.05) were obtained for Fine sediments, and medium (45) and large Cobble (180, 128, 90). We interpret Table 3 as showing the cover of Fine sediments (high cover in occupied plots) to be largely responsible for overall separation between groups and alternately, the cover of medium and large Cobble (high cover in unoccupied plots) is responsible for the overall, between-group values for T. DISCUSSION We found a positive association between Harperella cover and cover of Fine sediments. We hypothesize that Fine sediments settle between and around Cobble and Gravel but are more apparent when they accumulate in larger bedrock crevices and depressions. This may account for the strong ordination of some occupied quadrats with Bedrock and the MDS configuration where Bedrock and Fine sediments are the important factors. A large cover value for Bedrock may frequently co-occur with a smaller cover of 8 CASTANEA VOL. 77 Figure 2. Multidimensional scaling using the Kruskal algorithm (MDS) ordination of all quadrats (N 5 80). Individual quadrats (open or filled circles) occur closest to their preferred substrate (stars). In the upper left quadrant the factor ‘‘Grav & Sand’’ is a composite of Grav 11, 16, and Sand as the coordinates overlapped. Fine sediment given that a sediment-filled crevice may be only a few centimeters in width. These crevices, although small, often hold many Harperella plants. Other habitats with high cover values of Fine sediments are depressions running parallel with exposed bands of Bedrock. These are often linear and may cover many square meters. In this circumstance the cover value of Fine sediments may be large and cover values for other substrates relatively small. In these microhabitats Harperella plants are very dense and may constitute values greater than 90 percent cover. We observed that Harperella roots readily in this habitat and the resulting vegetative propagation results in high densities of Harperella. We found an overall difference in substrate composition between occupied and unoccupied Table 3. Results of multiple-response permutation procedure test by substrate showing average withingroup distance for occupied and unoccupied quadrats: T—the statistic measuring group separation, A—the statistic measuring within-group agreement, and p—the probability of finding a higher value of T in all permutations of the data. Significant p-values (a # 0.05) shown in bold. See Table 1 for list of stream substrate classes Substrate Size (mm) Bedrock Cobble 180 Cobble 128 Cobble 90 Cobble 64 Cobble 45 Cobble 32 Cobble 22.6 Gravel 16 Gravel 11 Gravel 8 Sand Fine Avg. Within-Group Distance Occupied Unoccupied T A p 0.431 0.231 0.292 0.284 0.324 0.312 0.322 0.307 0.268 0.293 0.330 0.320 0.360 0.465 0.379 0.412 0.400 0.439 0.422 0.396 0.415 0.392 0.348 0.371 0.392 0.414 0.109 23.847 23.129 23.503 20.655 24.097 0.270 0.251 20.688 20.381 0.342 20.226 213.708 20.001 0.047 0.037 0.042 0.007 0.050 20.003 20.003 0.008 0.005 20.004 0.002 0.140 0.384 0.010 0.018 0.013 0.188 0.007 0.472 0.474 0.175 0.230 0.502 0.290 ,0.001 2012 FRYE, TESSEL: STREAM SUBSTRATES IN HARPERELLA HABITATS quadrats. We compared the magnitude of the T-statistic for each substrate size and found that the difference was largely attributable to the abundance of Fine sediments in occupied plots and the abundance of Cobble in the unoccupied plots. Harperella was more frequently found in Fine sediment deposits or among crevices in Bedrock whereas medium and large Cobbles were more frequently found in unoccupied habitats along with small Cobble- and Gravel-sized substrates. This is in agreement with the NMS ordination of the occupied plots where Cobble, Gravel, and Sand are minor gradients of the ordination. Smaller diameter substrates (small Cobble, Gravel, and Sand) may not provide a configuration amenable to retention of Fine sediments. These smaller diameter substrates would be more easily transported during flood events, and we hypothesize that while they may provide habitat during periods of low stream flow, they may never act as habitat for persistent stands. For example, Harperella plants rooted in small Cobble, Gravel, and Sand substrates that are easily moved about during flood events may be dislodged or buried. Long-term demographic data (Maryland Natural Heritage Program 1989–2010) indicate that large patches are persistent and colonization of other putatively similar habitats occurs rarely. For example, turnover rates for stands numbering .500 stems were much lower than those with fewer than 500 stems and large patches (.1,000) remained stable from 1990 to 1993 (Maddox and Bartgis 1994). Life-history components may reinforce this trend. Wells et al. (2004) observed that Harperella flowers and fruits profusely during dry years whereas vegetative propagation is associated with submergence. Although briefly mentioned by Kral (1981), Maddox and Bartgis (1989, 1992) were perhaps the first to note the ecological significance of vegetative rosettes arising from basal and stem nodes. They theorized that these might be both additional propagules capable of colonizing new sites when detached and also a mechanism for (genet) persistence and maintenance of population size. When detached from the maternal plant, there is a much higher probability that the free-floating plantlets and dislodged seed will settle on the sand and gravel bars that constitute much of the stream habitat. These newly founded populations experience 9 large temporal variation in habitat quality depending on the prevailing stream flow patterns. If stream flow remains low and flood events are few, then these patches may expand; however, during moderate to large flood events these patches over gravel and cobble are more likely to be extirpated. What is important, it appears, is that both forms of reproduction contribute to overall population (census) size each year but that each contribution may be greatly determined by annual patterns of stream flow. Riparian plants in particular may have strong ties between life-history characteristics and the timing of environmental events such as periods of low versus high stream flow (Smith et al. 2005, Thomson and Schwartz 2006). If Harperella is narrowly adapted to a pattern of historical average flow and flood events, then it may be particularly susceptible to alterations in those patterns. Eshelman (2007) modeled the putative impacts of a proposal to release 0.3–0.9 million gallons per day of treated wastewater into a tributary of Fifteenmile Creek and concluded that it would dramatically alter the flow regime by eliminating the low-flow periods that are characteristic of streams in the Allegany Forests region. Lowflow periods appear to be a critical life-history phase for Harperella when plants flower and fruit profusely. Harperella is an example of a plant species that requires management at a watershed level. Certainly efforts to secure buffers immediately adjacent to occupied habitat improve the overall conservation probability; however, the timing, frequency, and duration of flood events fall outside of local control. Marcinko (2007) also concluded that environmental conditions were limiting factors to the species’ distribution and abundance. We recommend modifying the current annual census program to focus on substrate composition, hydrology, and population dynamics in large patches. Future work will include an analysis of population genetic diversity and structuring at Sideling Hill Creek. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was supported by United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Fund for Endangered Species, under Section 6 of the Endangered Species Act and the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Wildlife and Heritage Service. The authors wish to express their appreciation to Elizabeth Wells and two unknown reviewers 10 CASTANEA for critical and editorial comments that greatly improved the manuscript and to Michael Baranski for editing an early draft of the manuscript. LITERATURE CITED Clarke, K.R. 1993. Non-parametric multivariate analyses of changes in community structure. Austral. J. Ecol. 18:117–143. Eshelman, K.N. 2007. 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