M i g r a t i o n i n a Wo r l d o f Gl o b a l
Ch a n g e
N e w St r a t e g i e s & Po l i c i e s
f o r N e w Re a l i t i e s
Int roduc t ion
Main message of presentation
The vital link between physical mobility and policy mobility. In other words,
the link between the realities of present-day migration and policies,
strategies and mechanism that address it.
1 . Ch a n g e s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l M i g r a t i o n
What are the new migration realities?
a. Volumes: more people on the move
Self-explanatory chart shows overall growth in numbers of migrants
worldwide over last 4 decades from 75 to a projected 230 million in 2050.
230
175
75
3258
1965
84
3,980
105
4,720
6,300
Migrant s
8,077
Tot al populat ion
1975
1985
2002
2050
Ch a r t 1 . M i g r a n t s v s . t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n (m i l l i o n s )
b. More types of migration
œ Skilled: considerable increase
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115,000
115,000
1999
2000
195,000
195,000
2002
2003
107,500
65,000
1998
2001
Ch a r t 2 . N u m b e r o f H -B 1 v i s a s i s s u e d b y U .S. 1 9 9 8 -2 0 0 3
(Chart shows, as one example of many, increase in number of H-B1
visas to the US. Situation replicated elsewhere)
œ
Tourism: Number of arrivals expected to triple in 2020 to 1.5 billion as
compared to 1965)
1 ,5 6 0
1000
4 5 5 .9
1990
6 8 7 .3
6 8 4 .1
7 0 2 .6
2000
2001
2002
5 5 0 .4
1995
2010
2020
Ch a r t 3 . N u m b e r s o f w o r l d w i d e a r r i v a l s (m i l l i o n s )
œ
œ
œ
œ
œ
Family reunification
Business
Study and research
Forced migration
Irregular outflows
2
c) More destinations
Past: a handful of “immigration” countries
Major m ovem ent s 1960s
Present: almost all countries affected
Major m ovem ent s 1990s
d) More routes and travel strategies
œ Short(er)-term (the 2-5 year migration cycle more frequent)
3
œ
Multi-stage
A
œ
C
B
D
Circular
C
B
A
D
2 . Dr i v i n g f o r c e s b e h i n d t o d a y ’s m o b i l e w o r l d
Why have all these migration realities come about? There are a number of
factors which basically fall in two large categories:
I ) De m o g r a p h i c t r e n d s
50
20
45
20
40
20
35
20
30
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
20
00
8 .3 7 8 .5 9 8 .7 7 8 .9 1
7 .8 5 8 .1 3
7
.5
4
6 .8 3 7 .1 9
6 .0 7 6 .4 5
Ch a r t 4 : Wo r l d p o p u l a t i o n t o t h e y e a r 2 0 5 0 (b i l l i o n s )
4
a) Increase of overall population: expected to continue until 2050 from
present 6.2 billion to almost 9 billion.
b) Ageing of Europe and much of the developed world’s population.
23.3%
11%
12.7%
20.5%
J apan
Mex ic o
%
Ge r m a n y
4.8%
6.9%
23.2%
33.4%
Viet nam
Population 15-25
Population +60
Chart shows that population over 60 is considerably larger in develop than
in developing countries. This means a:
œ Younger more dynamic population in emerging economies that
œ Will be more likely to seek opportunities abroad.
c) Migration increasingly available as a life choice (not necessarily taken)
d) Massive rural to urban migration in world’s most populous countries:
India and China (150 million alone in China, biggest migration wave in
history)
œ Expected to follow classical trajectory: rural to urban and urban to
international
œ
Growth of cities (in developing world); implications for city
infrastructure
e) Feminization of migration
Today’s migrant is not a male head of household – more than 50% of
migrants are women
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Ch a r t 6 : Wo m e n m i g r a n t s a s p e r c e n t a g e o f t o t a l m i g r a n t s
Tot al
m igrant s
4 8 .5
48
4 8 .5
5 1 .7
5 2 .4
Wo m e n
m igrant s
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Chart shows a steady increase over the past five decades of women
migrants from 48 to 52% of the total migrant population.
f) The very nature of societies in the developed world:
- Internal freedom of movement
- Liberal access for tourism, business, etc that can act as a pull factor.
- Move towards more multi-ethnic societies
g) Trans-national communities: grown exponentially in past four decades
While situation is not uniform and consistent across the board, the chart
shows that the figures show the number of foreign born at three moments
in time (1985, 1990, 29001) has grown considerably. The story is very much
the same everywhere. This will act as support structure and basis for
further migration (family reunification) regardless of economic cycles.
A second important group are
I I ) Ec o n o m i c f a c t o r s
a) Income disparities. Chart shows the considerable differences between
three main categories of income (low, middle and high) in a number of
representative countries.
6
1 2 0 ,0 0 0
4 0 ,0 0 0
6 0 0 1 ,5 0 0 2 ,5 0 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
1 2 ,0 0 0
1 ,5 0 0
Albania
Ph i l l i p i n e s
2 0 ,0 0 0
3 5 ,0 0 0
1 5,0 0 0
2 ,4 0 0
B r a zi l
U .S.
Ch a r t 8 . A v e r a g e y e a r l y i n c o m e s i n s e l e c t e d c o u n t r i e s
L o w -i n c o m e
Medium inc om e
High inc om e
b) Income growth
œ Prosperity has two-stage effect on movement: outbound first,
stabilisation second
œ Typical migrant not in the lowest income range. More towards highest.
œ Move from good to better
c) Cost of transportation
3 6 ,0 0 0
2 8 ,0 0 0
2 4 ,0 0 0
N e w De h l i - N e w Y o r k
1 8 ,0 0 0
1 4 ,0 0 0
7 ,0 0 0
1960
1970
1980
Nairobi - London
4 ,0 0 0
2 ,0 0 0
2000
Ch a r t 9 . Co s t o f a i r t r a v e l o n s e l e c t e d r o u t e s : 1 9 6 0 – 2 0 0 0
7
Technological advances have made travel cheaper and simpler. Chart
shows dramatic decrease in costs for air travel to two selected destinations
(New-Delhi to New York and Nairobi to London) adjusted for today’s buying
power parity.) Decrease from 36,000 to 4,000 for N.Delhi to N.Y and from
24,000 to 2,000 for Nairobi to London.
d) Integrated world economy
œ Economies: pace of change accelerating, require varying-profile, more
mobile labour force to service
œ Money, goods and services flow more freely across borders. People
inevitably follow.
œ If people don’t follow the money, money goes to the people:
delocalization/outsourcing
3. Im plic at ions for polic y m ak ers
1. Migration: considerably more multi-faceted than several decades ago.
Suggests just as multi-faceted policies.
2. Reflection of structural economic and social realities of present-day
world at all stages of the migration cycle
3. Implications at both individual and societal level
4. A choice needs to be made:
œ Either manage migration and harness its positive potential
œ Or cede control to so called ‘market’ forces and face more irregular
flows: trafficking/smuggling
The essential thing is to balance facilitation and control
4. Migrat ion m anagem ent syst em s: in st ep w it h
realit ies?
At international level: transitional period in managing migration – still
developing methods for dealing with international migration
Ch a r t 1 0 . Re f u g e e s v s . m i g r a n t s 1 9 6 5 -2 0 5 0 (m i l l i o n s )
œ
175
75
84
92
4 .3 6
3
0 .9
1965
1975
1980
136
1 42
1 1 .8
1 7 .2
1 8.3
1 1 .7
1985
1990
1 99 2
2000
Re f u g e e s
Migrant s
105
8
œ
Current systems focus still on migration/asylum nexus. Chart shows
that of the total migrant population refugees represent only a minority.
œ
Systems deal with only minority percentage of movements.
9 2 .0 0 %
Re f u g e e s
Migrant s
8 .0 0 %
Ch a r t 1 0 . M i g r a n t s , r e f u g e e s a s a v e r a g e % o f t o t a l
m o v e m e n t s 1 9 6 5 -2 0 5 0
Chart shows that refugees are on average only 8% of total migration flows.
More importantly, current systems are not set up to maximize benefits
of migration.
œ
5 ) Po l i c y c h a l l e n g e s
This poses the following five major challenges to policy makers.
1. The link between migration and development.
200
150
1 7 .7
Of f i c i a l Re m i t t a n c e s
Pr i v a t e c a p i t a l m a r k e t
Of f i c i a l i n f l o w s
FDI I n f l o w s
1 7 0 .3
2 2 .6
100
50
4 1 .2
2 1 .3
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
7 2 .3
3 .7
-3 .9
-5 0
Ch a r t 1 2 . Re m i t t a n c e s v s . o t h e r i n f l o w s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s
(b i l l i o n s )
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Remittances occupy a central point in the migration discourse. Chart
shows the considerable and steadily rising resource hat remittances
represent for a good number of developing countries. Rising from 17.7
billion in 1992 to over 72 in 2001. They thus surpass ODA +FDI).
œ
œ
œ
Regular labour migration/exchange schemes
Skills transfer
Expatriate community support to development
2) Migration from a life-cycle perspective
œ Pre-departure
œ Passage
œ Immediate post-arrival
œ Integration
œ Long(er) term perspective
The value of this analytical perspective is that it offers insights into:
œ Difficulties facing migrants at each step of the way
œ Challenges for governments
œ Policy solutions
In more concrete terms, here are some of the issues that need to be
addressed at each step of this life-cycle:
a) Pre-departure
œ Preparation for migration (information)
œ Recruitment
œ Health screening
œ Migrant rights
œ Cultural orientation
œ Language training
b) Passage
œ Security
œ Protection
c. Post-arrival
œ Facilitated entry
œ Reception facilities
œ First-stage practical ‘survival’ skills
d. Longer term
œ Integration
œ Citizenship
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œ
œ
œ
Harnessing potential of immigrant communities
Skills transfer and return
Remittances, investment, business development
A daunting task by any account. Wanting to address it could easily lead to
a fragmented approach.
3) That is why the third major challenge is to bring all these together under
a comprehensive and manageable policy.
IOM proposes four pillars to a coherent migration policy
œ
œ
œ
œ
Migration and development
Facilitated migration
Migration Control
Forced migration
Together these:
œ Deal effectively with major challenges
œ Reap benefits of migration
œ Address human aspects of migration
œ IOM structures itself to assist governments in these four major areas
These four pillars can effectively sum up most if not all of the major
migration management issues facing governments today.
Together with some cross-cutting activities such as
œ
œ
œ
œ
œ
œ
œ
Technical co-operation
Protection of rights, etc
Information gathering and research
Policy debate and guidance
Regional and international co-operation
Advocacy, Public information and Education
Migration Health
4) The fourth major challenge is that of a discourse at a global level.
œ Geneva Migration Group
œ Global Commission
œ Berne Initiative
œ IOM Council International Dialogue on Migration
Regionalization – The map shows the major RCPs on every continent
Increased cooperation: exchange of data & information
5) The fifth challenge is that of partnerships.
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These should include :
œ Governments at various levels
œ IO’s
œ NGOs
œ Recruitment agencies
œ Employers
They are all shareholders in this enterprise and need to be actively
involved.
6 ) Co n c l u s i o n s
œ
œ
œ
œ
Mobility - prevalent feature of modern life
Choice: managed or disruptive migration
Policies need to balance:
Policies need to balance
- Impact on society and individual
- Control and facilitation
- Benefit from positive and dampen the negative impact
IOM’s Vision
œ Orderly migration as a beneficial factor for societies
œ Factor of individual and collective development
To make this happen physical mobility should be met with policy mobility.
I OM - M i g r a t i o n Po l i c y a n d Re s e a r c h
Novem ber 2003
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