Comparison of Transport Energy Consumption and Population Density, Trip Rate in Developed and Developing Countries Hajime Daimon Graduate Student Department of Civil Engineering Utsunomiya University 7-1-2 Yoto, Utsunomiya, Japan 321-8585 Phone/FAX: +81-28-689-6224 Email: [email protected] Akinori Morimoto Associate Professor Department of Civil Engineering Utsunomiya University 7-1-2 Yoto, Utsunomiya, Japan 321-8585 Phone/FAX: +81-28-689-6221 Email: [email protected] Hirotaka Koike Professor Faculty of City Life Utsunomiya Kyowa University 1-3-18 Ohdohri, Utsunomiya, Japan 320-0811 Phone/FAX: +81-28-639-0555 Email: [email protected] ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to compare transportation energy consumption in developed and developing countries and to explore the direction that developing countries should take in terms of land use and transportation planning. Most unique characteristic of this study is to utilize person-trip survey data in developing countries. As a result, we showed that it is necessary not only to form a high density city structure with controlled suburbanization, but also to establish land use policy in the city in order to establish desirable energy efficient urban forms in developing countries. INTRODUCTION Background and Purpose of Study It has been a demanding issue in the city-planning field to shed light on the interrelationship between land use and transportation system for a long time. The mechanism how this problem occurs can be found by paying attention to the urban form and the historical background of each city. The progress of motorization has provided great mobility to people. However, the traditional urban form that had been kept was destroyed, and rapid and extensive sprawl of cities to suburbs took place, causing serious problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution. Recently, the concepts like Compact City and Transit Oriented Development have emerged to deal with this problem, and have achieved successful results in the cities in Europe and North America. In other words, a city that once was densely populated has changed to a low-density city due to the progress of the motorization. Now this low-density city is attempting to form a high-density city again in developed countries. Developing countries, on the other hand, has accomplished rapid economic growth in recent years, and follow the same path as the developed countries. In order for developing countries to avoid the vicious circle of “high-density to low-density and to high-density again,” it is necessary to understand the relationship between urban form and transportation characteristics of cities in the developing countries. The comparative analyses of urban forms and transportation characteristics such as automobile energy consumption in developed countries using the person-trip data have been studied by many researchers including the well-known study by P. Newman and J.Kenworthy (1989). However, the similar comparative analyses of urban forms and traffic characteristics using person-trip data in cities in developing countries are not found. This study tries to explore the relationship between urban forms and transportation characteristics by using the person-trip data of developing countries. In addition, it aims to compare the urban forms of developing countries and developed countries, and to show the direction of land use and transportation planning in the developing countries. Review of Existing Studies As discussed previously, Newman, P. et al. (1989) suggested the relationship between population density and transportation energy consumption per capita with 32 cities. In addition, they suggested it with 46 cities in addition to 14 cities (1999) (See Figure.1). This study that high dense city leads to the constraint of automobile caused controversy among many researchers. There are a lot of researches in association with this study in Japan. Hayashi et al. (1992) showed “a global-environmentally-friendly city” wouldn’t always correspond with “a regional-environmentally-friendly city” by analyzed transport energy consumption per area in addition to that per capita. Taniguchi et al. (1999) similarly grasped the relation between population density and transportation energy consumption with 67 cities in Japan. They showed that not only population density but also the number of railway station in cities and so on influenced automobile usage ratio, and also assumed that the cities poorly-served by railway transport increase automobile usage. On the other hand, there is some criticism against the studies by Newman, P. et al. Gordon, P. et al. (1989) questioned the purpose of minimization of fuel consumption in market economy, the meaning of comparison between cities, and validity between land use policy and public transport policy. Gomez-Ibanez, J. A. (1991) also indicated other factors such as income and the difference of historic background on land use and so on except population density. According to Richardson, H.W. et al. (2004) Figure.1 wouldn’t show the relationship between population density and transport energy consumption per capita in the first place, and it would be unclear why people lived in high-density city constrained automobile usage. Moreover he also noted that income in each city, relative fuel price, or railway capitalization trend as an alternative transportation mode for an auto cause the relationship. Especially the indication by Brindle, R is interesting. Brindle, R noted that it might be a statistical problem to consider the relation between population density and transport energy consumption per capita in the first place, because common variable on “population” is included in the numerator of population density and the denominator of transport energy consumption per capita. Therefore false correlation occurs between both variables, even though there is no relation between urban area and total transport energy consumption. Kenworthy, J. et al. (1999), however, reviewed these indications and suggested again that there would be little possibility of influence of population as common variable on the relation between both variable, rather than more strongly relationship between urban area and total transport energy consumption. Recently Suzuki et al. (2006) analyzed the relation between urban area and total automobile travel distance instead of population density and transport energy consumption per capita by using 6 reliable urban data statistically. Concretely speaking, urban area is defined as equal time area from CBD because it is difficult to determine the urban boundary by using land use data alone. Then total automobile travel distance consisted of 4 factors, i.e. ‘average trip speed’, ‘average trip time’, ‘automobile modal split’ and ‘trip rate’. In which most specific difference among cities would be automobile modal split. Moreover, they also suggested that how much stock for public transit each city holds (or how less stock for road infrastructure each city holds) influences urban area and total automobile travel distance concurrently. This is one of the reasons why there is great relationship between population density and transport energy consumption per capita. Thus there is a certain amount of validity between population density and transportation energy consumption. However most of the cities in Figure 1 are developed countries, it is significant to confirm the relation in developing countries. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYSIS Person-trip data of eleven cities in developing countries Most unique characteristic of this study is to use person-trip data in developing countries, which has never been obtained before. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) conducted person-trip surveys in eleven cities in developing countries, such as Asia, Middle East and Central and South America, as is shown in Table 1. These cities have a variety of metropolitan areas or economic conditions, but in general, their per capita GDP are less than one tenth of Japan or United States, and automobile ownership rate is extremely low. Table 2 shows socio-economic characteristics and the data calculated by using person-trip survey in eleven cities in developing countries, which contains the surveyed date and the sample size. Average number of trips per day per person are between from 1.97 trips to 2.71 trips, which show similarity. On the other hand, urban population density or GDP per person or automobile ownership rate or average speed varies by these cities. Moreover, Figure 2 shows modal share and Figure 3 shows the ratio of trip purpose in the eleven cities in developing countries. As is seen these figures, Asian cities have high bicycle modal share compared with other cities, and automobile modal share varies widely among these cities. The focus of our research was to compare the urban forms among developing countries and developed countries, and to show the direction of land use and transportation planning developing countries should take. To accomplish this objective we investigated the relationship between urban population density and transportation energy consumption per person, which may be able to lead us to a desirable urban form by comparing cities in terms of transportation energy consumption. Relationship between urban density and transportation energy consumption Transportation energy consumption Eik of transportation mode k in the city i is calculated by the following equations. Here, the value of basic unit of transportation energy consumption for automobile is assumed as 584 (kcal/person km) which is calculated by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. Eik = Pi * Gi * rik * dik * ek Population:P,Average number of trips:G Composition ratio by transportation mode:rk, Average trip length by transportation mode:dk (km) Basic unit of transportation energy by transportation mode:ek (kcal/person km) The relation between population density and transportation energy consumption per person in developing countries was shown in Figure 4 in order to clarify the relationship between urban form and transportation energy consumption. Thus, it is found that the higher population density becomes, the smaller transportation energy consumption. This is because modal split of automobiles decreases and the trip length is relatively short in high-density cities. Figure 5 shows the relationship between urban density and automobile dependence in the eleven cities of developing countries, in addition to major cities in developed countries which had been analyzed by Newman and Kenworthy, to compare with energy consumption between developed and developing countries. Vertical axis shows annual automobile energy consumption per person based on the conversion unit value of 1[kcal]=4.185*103 [J]. Thus the transportation energy consumptions in developing countries tend to be similar to those in developed countries. From this figure, it is observed that there is a close connection between population density and transportation energy consumption per capita not only in developed countries but also in developing countries. Moreover, the energy consumption in developing countries is generally somewhat smaller compared with the approximation curve of the major cities in developed countries analyzed by Newman and Kenwothy. This can be explained that there is a big difference in economic conditions, and correspondingly the difference in car ownership rate between developed major cities and developing cities used in this research. Other reasons could be attributed that the person-trip surveys of eleven cities were home interview surveys in the urban areas, and neither the data of goods movement in the city nor the trip data of intercity travel were included. In addition, what should be paid attention is that the population density values in developing countries in this study are the population density in metropolitan area because of data restrict. Therefore these values vary depending on how to treat metropolitan area. Urban form and intrazonal trip ratio In the previous section, the relationship between urban forms and transportation energy consumption in developing countries was clarified by analyzing the relationship between population density and transportation energy consumption per capita. It can be assumed that a high-density city is a sustainable city because of the low energy consumption. The index of density alone, however, cannot explain the details of urban form. For example, examining the relationship between population density and transportation energy consumption in Figure 4 more closely, one can find the transportation energy consumption per capita between Kuala Lumpur and Chengdu has large differences, despite the population density values are quite similar. How is this phenomenon explained? We analyze from a viewpoint of transport characteristics such as trip rates or trip lengths. For example, the large amount of extensive public transportation network prevents metropolitan area like Tokyo from becoming low density in spite of its sprawl. On the other hand, the low rate of the long trip length and low mobility would form a high-density city in developing countries. In other words, even if the population density values are quite similar compared between metropolis where an extensive and well-established railway system is in existence and the cities in developing countries where there are a lot of people whose mobility is constrained, the transportation energy consumption values are different. Then we calculated the ratio of intrazonal trips in CBD, which would suggest great difference between the metropolis and the cities in developing countries, by using commuting trip purpose in origin-destination matrix of person-trip survey. We chose above two cities in developing countries, namely, Chengdu, China and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. To compare with them, Tokyo is chosen as the developed country city. Figure 6 shows zone map of central area in three cities, and Table 3 shows commuting trip purpose origin-destination matrix in the central area of these three cities. The ratio of intrazonal trips was calculated by the following equation. The ratio of intrazonal trip = Intrazonal trips of one zone Destination trips to one zone Figure 7 shows the ratio of intrazonal trips for zones in the central area of Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Chengdu. First, the ratios of intrazonal trips in Tokyo, a developed country, it is found that the ratio of intrazonal trips in zone 1 was less than 10% and is remarkably low compared with other zones. Zone 1 is predominantly a business district with little residential population. As a zone is apart from CBD, the ratio of intrazonal trips becomes higher. Second, as is seen in Chengdu, the ratios of intrazonal trips in each of the zones were much higher compared with the zones in Tokyo. This is because there had been no railway transportation at the time of person-trip survey and major modes of transportation were predominantly bicycles in Chengdu (see Figure 2). It is reasonable to consider that trip length is short and that the work place and home tended to be closer. Similar observation is found in Tokyo. Zone 2 is located in the southwestern part of Tokyo inner city, where traditionally small to medium industries and home factories are located. There are many intrazonal trips found in this zone. Finally, in Kuala Lumpur, an interesting result was obtained. First of all, the ratio of intrazonal trips of zone 1 was comparatively low, though it was not as low as in Tokyo. Zone 1 is a CBD where people commute from other zones. This indicates the remarkable economic growth of Malaysia in recent years. Next, the ratio of intrazonal trip of zone 4 was very low. This is because land uses of zone 4 are embassies and hotels and golf course, there are many work places and few residential districts. And the ratio of intrazonal trips of zone 7 is also low. It could be explained by attributing to the extensive railway network. In other words, it is possible to access from other zones easily because a railway line is connected between zone 1 and zone 7. Thus transport characteristics such as the ratio of intrazonal trips and trip length are one of the reasons why there is the relationship between population density and transport energy consumption per capita. Transport characteristics influences population density and transportation energy consumption concurrently. DISCUSSIONS Generally speaking, the ratio of intrazonal trips is low in developed countries and high in developing countries. We can also assume that the transportation energy consumption increases as social and economic developments progress in developing countries. However, there are two directions to follow. One is the expansion of city area by public transit, and the other is the sprawl by automobile. A city can sprawl to suburbs if long distance transportation mode such as railway or LRT was developed and urban area is formed along railway, especially around transit stations. This is the so-called TOD. Another choice is the progress of the motorization, which also makes it possible to commute from suburbs to the center of a city, and the ratio of intrazonal trip of CBD can decrease remarkably even in developed countries. Therefore, what is important is the direction a city in a developing country is going to choose. If it takes the direction of public transportation system, as well as the land use with high intrazonal trip ratio, that city will be environmentally sustainable because of low transportation energy consumption. However, it a city choose the uncontrolled motorization, it will follow the undesirable path of many developed countries with high transportation energy consumptions, and sooner or later faces to change the direction in the long run in order to become environmentally sustainable. Therefore, if we are able to measure the trip length of the commuting purpose and intrazonal trip ratio quantitatively, as well as the predominant mode of transportation, we can estimate the transportation energy consumption of that particular city, and suggest the desirable path to take. In addition, in order to establish preferable urban form, it is necessary to consider the relationship between the land use and transportation systems in developing country not only to form a high-density city with controlled suburbanization but also to establish land use policy in the city which keep the trip length short. CONCLUSION In this research, urban forms among developing countries and developed countries were compared by using the index like the relationship between population density and transportation energy consumption per capita, and the ratio of intrazonal trips in terms of urban forms. The finding obtained from these could be summarized as follows. First, from the relationship between population density and transportation energy consumption, it could be said that the higher population density becomes, the smaller automobile energy consumption. Thus the transportation energy consumption in developing countries can be plotted in the same diagram of urban form and transportation energy as Newman and Kenworthy developed for developed countries with minor modification. Second, as was found in the ratios of intrazonal trips in Kuala Lumpur and Chengdu, both have similar population density, the ratios of intrazonal trips in any zone were very high in Chengdu, however in Kuala Lumpur, the zones of CBD and non residential district were low. In other words, even if population density was same, transportation energy consumption was different because the ratio of intrazonal trips was different. In order to establish sustainable urban forms in cities in developing countries, it is necessary to establish a policy to coordinate the relationship between land use and transportation systems in such a way to form high density urban area to keep the trip length shorter or use public transport for longer trips. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors wish to express their thanks to Japan International Cooperation Agency for the provision of person-trip data of eleven cities in developing countries. REFFRENCES Newman, P. and Kenworthy, J. (1989). Cities and Automobile Dependence, A Source book, Gower Technical. Newman, P. and Kenworthy, J. (1999). Sustainability and Cities, Overcoming Automobile Dependence, Island Press. Y, Hayashi. Y, Tomita. K, Doi. S, Rithica. and H, Kato. (1992). A Comparative Study on Urban Transport Energy Consumption and its Influences on the Environment, Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, No.15(1)-2, pp.939-944. Y, Hayashi. (1992). Urban Land Use and Transportation Policy for Reduction of Environmental Burdens, Environmental Research, No.86, pp.66-73. M, Taniguchi. T, Murakawa. T, Morita. (1999). Analysis on Relationship between Urban Character and Car Usage Based on Personal Trip Data, City Planning Review, The City Planning Institute of Japan, No.34, pp.967-972. Gordon, P. and Richardson, H.W. (1989). Gasoline consumption and cities: a reply. Journal of American Planning Association, No.55, pp.342-346. Gomez-lbanz, J.A. (1991). A global view of automobile dependence, Journal of American Planning Association, No.57, pp.376-379. Richardson, H.W. and Bae, C.H. (2004). Transportation and urban compactness. In D.A. Hensher, K.J. Button, K.E. Haynes, and P.R. Stopher, Handbook of Transport Geography and Spatial Systems. Pergamon, pp.333-355. Brindle, R. (1994). Lies, damned lies and “automobile dependence.” Australian Transport Research Forum, 19, pp.117-131. Kenworthy, J.R. and Laube, F.B. (1999). An International Sourcebook of Automobile Dependence in Cities 1960-1990, University Press of Colorado. T. Suzuki, Y. Muromachi. (2006). Re-evaluation of Population Density - Automobile Use Relationship in Mega-cities, Urban Area and Vehicle Kilometers, City Planning Review, The City Planning Institute of Japan, No.41-3, pp.151-156. TABLE 1 Case Study Cities Continent Asia Africa Middle East Central and South America Europe City Chengdu Kuala Lumpur Jakarta Manila Phnom Penh Cairo Tripoli Damascus Managua Belem Bucharest Country China Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Cambodia Egypt Lebanon Syria Nicaragua Brazil Romania TABLE 2 Social Economic Characteristics and The data calculated with Person-trip Survey Country China Malaysia Indonesia Philippine Cambodia Egypt Lebanon Syria Nicaragua Brazil Rumania Urban Population GDP per PT sample Average trip area Area Survey density person data per day City population date 1000 trip /person.day km2 person/ha dollar/person person Chengdu 3,090 586 53 2,442 2000.6-7 70,199 2.25 1,391 243 57 4,826 1997 218,460 2.71 Kuala Lumpur Jakarta 8,300 650 128 710 2000 1,083,280 2.56 Manila 9,454 636 149 1,030 1996.8-12 471,035 2.03 Phnom Penh 591 27 219 215 2000.5-8 40,369 2.16 Cairo 6,801 640 106 1,470 2001.9-10 268,360 1.97 Tripoli 331 38 87 3,990 2000.1-12 7,615 2.11 Damascus 1,488 101 147 1,088 1998 81,698 2.12 Managua 1,117 124 90 620 1998.1-3 54,138 2.18 Belem 1,782 89 200 2,930 2000 59,529 2.48 Bucharest 2,016 252 80 2,830 1998.1-12 143,311 2.70 Note: Urban area population and areas are from JICA reports. GDP per person is from The World Fact book in Central Intelligence Agency. Average trip per day and automobile energy consumption are calculated by authors. automobile energy consumption kcal/person 4,348 7,089 3,067 2,084 1,271 4,064 5,613 1,789 6,574 1,685 6,131 TABLE 3 Commuting Trip Purpose Origin-Destination Matrix in Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Chengdu Tokyo o d 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Destination Trip 2 Total Destination Trip 4 5 6 7 Total Origin Trip 78,485 419,206 295,787 307,014 531,403 480,510 554,981 55,175 114,071 91,852 82,298 167,963 117,866 132,256 5,299 225,795 13,962 11,690 42,548 17,615 20,068 8,656 47,197 140,655 31,995 132,045 113,496 50,397 6,296 13,203 16,082 152,328 19,982 26,821 88,979 1,537 12,792 13,543 4,001 153,146 19,639 7,505 675 3,745 15,917 6,472 12,413 177,155 10,430 847 2,403 3,776 18,230 3,306 7,918 245,346 761,481 336,977 524,441 323,691 212,163 226,807 281,826 2,667,386 Kuala Lumpur d o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 68,297 39,927 40,517 14,922 21,504 20,614 16,138 5,485 60,975 8,475 1,338 2,387 2,813 2,606 2,992 4,986 32,509 2,474 1,143 1,541 614 3,846 3,410 5,335 7,173 4,272 3,014 964 2,938 2,208 1,556 1,567 23,563 4,684 628 3,227 3,360 1,597 931 3,236 32,888 1,410 6,529 6,469 5,567 1,208 2,679 7,503 25,542 Total Origin Trip 93,314 121,334 95,554 29,612 58,783 73,056 47,902 221,918 84,079 46,259 28,013 37,143 46,647 55,496 519,555 1 2 3 4 5 Chengdu d o 1 102,285 2 26,650 3 17,013 4 34,210 5 39,179 Total Destination Trip 219,338 Total Origin Trip 219,385 289,693 186,014 404,517 286,139 26,575 220,933 13,474 11,455 11,403 28,786 18,223 127,349 25,736 13,384 33,932 10,899 17,413 312,630 27,505 27,807 12,988 10,765 20,486 194,668 283,842 213,481 402,383 266,719 1,385,748 Automobile Energy Consumption Per Capita (MJ) 70000 Sacramento Houston 60000 Diego Phoenix San San Francisco Portland Los Angeles Denver Detroit Boston Washington 50000 Chicago New York 40000 Canberra Perth Calgary Melboume Winnipeq Adelaide Edmonton Brisbane Vancouver Toronto 30000 Sydney Montreal Ottawa Frankfurt Hamburg Brussels Zurich 20000 Stockholm Vienna Copenhagen Paris Munich London Amsterdam Singapore Kuala Lumpur 10000 Tokyo Bangkok Jakarta Seoul Manila Surabaya 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 Population Density (person/ha) 250 Hong Kong 275 300 FIGURE 1 Urban Densities and Automobile Energy Consumption in Developed Countries Note: P.Newman and J. Kenworthy: SUSTAINABILITY AND CITIES: p.101, 1999 Walking Bicycle Train 40% 60% Bus Car Chengdu Kuala Lumpur Jakarta Manila Phnom Penh Cairo Tripoli Damascus Managua Belem Bucharest 0% 20% 80% FIGURE 2 Modal Shares in the Eleven Cities of Developing Countries 100% To work To school Business Private To home Chengdu Kuala Lumpur Jakarta Manila Phnom Penh Cairo Tripoli Damascus Managua Belem Bucharest 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FIGURE 3 the Rate of Trip Purpose of the Eleven Cities in Developing Countries 8,000 Kuala Lumpur Automobile energy consumption per person(kcal/person) Managua Bucharest Tripoli 6,000 Chengdu 4,000 Cairo Jakarta Manila 2,000 Belem Damascus Phnom Penh 0 0 50 100 150 200 Population Density(person/ha) FIGURE 4 Urban Densities and Automobile Energy Consumption in the Eleven Cities 250 Automobile Energy Consumption Per Capita (MJ) 70000 Sacramento Houston 60000 Diego Phoenix San San Francisco Portland Los Angeles Denver Detroit Boston Washington 50000 Chicago New York 40000 Canberra Perth Calgary Melboume Winnipeq Adelaide Edmonton Brisbane Vancouver Toronto 30000 Sydney Montreal Ottawa Frankfurt Hamburg Brussels Zurich 20000 Stockholm Vienna Copenhagen Paris Munich London Amsterdam Singapore Kuala Lumpur Managua 10000 Bucharest Tripoli Tokyo Chengdu Bangkok Jakarta Seoul Jakarta Manila Cairo Damascus Manila Surabaya Phnom Penh Belem 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 Population Density (person/ha) 250 Hong Kong 275 300 FIGURE 5 Urban Densities and Automobile Energy Consumption in Developed and Developing Countries Note: New data (square shape) are plotted on the figure by P.Newman and J. Kenworthy: SUSTAINABILITY AND CITIES: p.101, 1999 325 Chengdu Kuala Lumpur 56 71 123 124 125 77 75 3 2 43 49 48 46 90 91 89 88 64 73 110 68 104 70 72 2 111 76 3 112 57 59 54 58 99 100 50 52 107 63 24 101 65 51 60 38 97 61 30 31 34 12 93 106 40 41 103 39 47 35 15 8 11 105 94 27 5 10 19 95 85 83 80 3 2 109 79 87 108 18 78 1 115 113 81 82 20 116 4 84 74 45 44 1 5 120 119 117 4 122 1 4 7 121 22 21 23 118 6 Tokyo 6 7 3 1 5 4 2 FIGURE 6 Zone Locations in Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Chengdu 5 1 Chengdu 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 the ratio of intrazonal trip the ratio of intrazonal trip 1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 Kuala Lumpur 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 zone number 4 5 6 7 zone number 1 Tokyo 0.9 the ratio of intrazonal trip 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 zone number FIGURE 7 The Ratio of Intrazonal Trip in Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur and Chengdu
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