NSW Community Housing Conference 2013
How to analyse local housing needs
Peter Phibbs
Outline
› Introduction
› Basic demographic concepts
› Basic housing market characteristics
› Why is someone in housing need?
› Gathering statistics
› An example
2
Introduction
The registration process
› Performance area 2
3
Demography 101
Basic demographic terms
› A household is defined as one or more persons, at least one of whom is
at least 15 years of age, usually resident in the same private dwelling.
Under this definition, all occupants of a dwelling form a household and
Therefore, for Census purposes, the total number of households is equal
to the total number of occupied private dwellings as a Census form is
completed for each household from which dwelling information for the
household is obtained.
4
Demography 101
Dwelling
› In general terms, a dwelling is a structure which is intended to have people
live in it, and which is habitable on Census Night. Some examples of
dwellings are houses, motels, flats, caravans, prisons, tents, humpies and
houseboats.
Private dwellings are enumerated using household forms, which obtain
family and relationship data as well as information on the dwelling itself
such as rent or mortgage payments and ownership. Non-private dwellings
(hotels, hospitals etc.) are enumerated on personal forms and, while these
forms capture information about relationships within the non-private
dwelling, they do not capture information on ownership of, or payments
related to, the dwelling.
5
Dwellings – Household composition
Via quickstats
6
Demography 101
Family
A family is defined by the ABS as two or more persons, one of whom is at
least 15 years of age, who are related by blood, marriage (registered or de
facto), adoption, step or fostering, and who are usually resident in the same
household.
Each separately identified couple relationship, lone parent-child relationship
or other blood relationship forms the basis of a family. Some households
contain more than one family
7
Families
Penrith LGA 2011 census
8
Household Size, Australia
Source: Australian Institute of Family Studies
› http://www.aifs.gov.au/institute/info/charts/households/index.html
Sep-1984
Sep-1985
Sep-1986
Sep-1987
Sep-1988
Sep-1989
Sep-1990
Sep-1991
Sep-1992
Sep-1993
Sep-1994
Sep-1995
Sep-1996
Sep-1997
Sep-1998
Sep-1999
Sep-2000
Sep-2001
Sep-2002
Sep-2003
Sep-2004
Sep-2005
Sep-2006
Sep-2007
Sep-2008
Sep-2009
Sep-2010
Sep-2011
Median house prices
Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
Sydney
Melbourne
300.0
Brisbane
Adelaide
Canberra
200.0
Perth
100.0
0.0
POPULATION PYRAMIDS
• The use of a population pyramid is considered the
best way to graphically illustrate the age and sex
distribution of a given population.
•
A population pyramid, using a paired bar charttype graphic, shows the numbers or percentages of
males and females in each age group. This type of
graphic provides a very clear picture of a
population's age-sex composition.
POPULATION PYRAMIDS
There are generally three types of population
pyramids created from age-sex distributions:
EXPANSIVE population pyramids show larger
numbers or percentages of the population in the
younger age groups, usually with each age group
smaller in size or proportion than the one born
before it. These types of pyramids are usually
found in populations with very large fertility rates
and lower than average life expectancies.
POPULATION PYRAMIDS
• CONSTRICTIVE population pyramids display lower
numbers or percentages of younger people.
• STATIONARY or near-stationary population
pyramids display somewhat equal numbers or
percentages for almost all age groups. Of course,
smaller figures are still to be expected at the oldest
age groups.
Types of population pyramid
From Pyramid
To Coffin
Source: Productivity Commission report on Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia
Key element of a demographic profile
› Comparison area: hard to interpret unless there is a comparison case
› Comparison should be against an area and over time to see what are the
change trends in the area
› Key elements:
- Population growth rates
- Age profile using population pyramid
- Dwelling characteristics (lone person households, group households), non
private dwellings
- Family composition
- Labour market participation (unemployment rates)
- Income levels
16
Housing market characteristics
› Change in total dwelling stock
› Change in type of dwellings
› Changes in prices – house prices and rents
› Changes in vacancy rates (if available)
› Changes in dwelling occupancy rates
17
Housing need
› Appropriate (energy efficiency, location, size etc)
› Affordable
› Secure (an ability to put down roots in the community!)
18
Sources of data
› The census – 2011 now available, is the best data source
› Followed by the NSW Rent and Sales report
› One opportunity for analysing the available data is through the NSW Local
Government Housing Kit;
19
20
An example
Argyle Example
Areas
Average
Ratio of 2036 Pop Percentage Household
Forecast to 2011 of Pop > 65
Size
2006
2006
Median
Income
2006
% of
Unemployment Rented
rate %
dwellings
Dec-11
2006
Percentage
of low
income
households
in rental
stress
2006
Albury
112%
13
2.4
921
8.2
30.7
49
Camden
372%
9
3
1351
2.4
18.9
52
Campbelltown
151%
7
3
1066
6.1
30.3
40
Goulburn Mulwaree
103%
15
2.4
842
3.6
27.9
47
Griffith
114%
13
2.7
993
6.2
30.3
45
Queanbeyan
154%
9
2.6
1180
1.2
30.7
64
Wagga Wagga
118%
12
2.6
966
5.6
31.1
50
Wingecarribee
129%
18
2.5
993
3.4
21.0
64
Yass Valley
141%
12
2.7
1164
1.2
20.2
57
Non metro NSW
117%
16
ABS
Census
2.5
ABS
Census
795
ABS
Census
5.4
26.2
ABS
Census
52
Source:
Dept of Planning
DEEWR
ABS Census
21
Total Rental
Bonds held
Public
Annual increase Housing
in total bonds % stock
Annual
change in
rents, 3
bedroom
houses
Mar-12
Mar-12
March 2012
Dec-11
5,689
3.8
931
4
2,922
5.0
387
9,374
2.8
2,220
Total CRA
recipients
Proportion of
CRA
recipients in
housing stress Area
2011-2012
Jun-11
3,907
69%
29%
Albury
5
1,856
64%
41%
Camden
6,394
3
7,580
81%
37%
Campbelltown
2.4
652
6
1,835
83%
28%
Goulburn Mulwaree
2,425
5.1
323
-1
1,353
56%
21%
Griffith
4,113
2.6
648
0
1,432
35%
37%
Queanbeyan
5,879
5.4
1,197
2
4,002
68%
43%
Wagga Wagga
3,469
2.6
7
6
2,384
69%
33%
Wingecarribee
653
9.2
3
17
426
65%
25%
Yass Valley
219,154
4.0
37,730
3
174,374
80%
32%
Non metro NSW
Fair Trading
Fair Trading
Housing
NSW
Fair Trading
Jun-11
Proportion of
CRA to bonds
held
Centrelink
Centrelink
22