AP Human Geography
Demographic Transition Model
Image source: http://www.geogonline.org.uk/as_g2popdtm.htm
Birth Rate
Reasons for ↑
Stage 1
Stage 2
High
High
Many children needed for farming. Many
children die at an early age. Religious/social
encouragement. Minimal family planning
Death Rate
High
Reasons for ↑
Disease, famine.
Poor medical
knowledge and
many children die.
Rate of Natural
Increase
Population
Growth
Life Expectancy
Fertility Rate
Population
Pyramid Shape
Low, if any
Fluctuates, but
low overall
Under 45
6.5+
Declines fairly
rapidly
Stage 3
Declines fairly
rapidly
Improved medical
care and diet. Fewer
children needed.
Low
Improvements in medical care, water
supplies and sanitation. Fewer children die.
Increases
rapidly
Rapid growth
45 to 55
5 to 6.5
Begins to
decrease
Rapid growth
slows down
55 to 65
3.5 to 5
Stage 4
Low
Stage 5
Low & drops
below Death
Family planning encouraged and used. Good
health. Improving status of women. Delayed
marriages and child birth.
Low
Low
Good health care. Reliable food supplies.
Low
Negative
Stable
Declines
65 to 75
2 to 3.5
75+
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