Risk Management

Manage Dependencies Before They
Impact Your Next Publication
By: Victor Clough
Once you have identified your internal and external publication dependencies and calculated hours per
page, what do you do next? Many teams do a good job of identifying dependencies, but few seem to
effectively reduce the impact they have on quality and customer satisfaction. If you want to better
manage publication dependencies, here is a five-step approach to identify dependencies and reduce the
level of impact they have on cost and quality of your next publication.
Step 1. Identify and Analyze Dependencies
External and internal dependencies describe factors that make the project less or more difficult to
manage. As part of the phase one planning activities, the team should focus on identifying internal and
external factors that impact publication goals and objectives. Some of these dependency factors are
product stability, information availability, and team experience, to name a few. For internal and external
dependencies, examine each factor as follows:
•
List the dependency drivers or facts that lead you to believe the dependency is of concern
•
From the dependency, estimate level of difficulty and apply the corresponding composite score as
shown in Figure 1.
Level of
Difficulty
(1 to 5)
Composite
Score
(x)
External / Internal
Dependency
Impact
Dependency Drivers
Impact Drivers
Outcome in
hours per page
Figure 1.
To assess the level of difficulty, rate the dependency on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is the least difficult,
and 5 the most difficult. The level of difficulty is matched to a composite score for each dependency.
Composite scores are multiplied by each other to obtain a total composite score, multiplied by 5.5 hours
per page to obtain a rough order of magnitude estimate (i.e. top-down). Average hours per page will vary
based on organizational history. Refer to “Managing Your Documentation Projects” by JoAnn T. Hackos
for estimating details and dependency types.
Level of
Difficulty
(5)
Composite
Score
(1.20)
External / Internal
Dependency
Product stability
Impact
Information Plan and
Content Specification
Dependency Drivers
Outcome
6.6 hours per-page
(1.20 *5.5)
Impact Drivers
1. Time, resource, and
budget estimating
2. Schedule
1. Changing Scope and
Complexity
Figure 2.
In Figure 2, I used product stability as the external dependency and defined the dependency driver and a
few impact drivers. Product stability is a good indicator of change during the project lifecycle. The less
stable the product, the more likely the scope will change. Scope changes increase project cost and the
added hours may not be billable to the customer.
Step 2: Prioritize Dependencies
Prioritize dependencies according to outcome not level. Prioritizing dependencies by outcome provides
an interpretation of difficulty. Organize outcomes by lifecycle phase such as Information planning,
Content specification, Implementation, etc., as this will help you track outcomes and adjust the project
plan throughout the project lifecycle. Create a dependency table containing the dependencies as shown
in Table 1.
Lifecycle Phase
Dependency
Level of
Difficulty
(1 to 5)
Composite
Score
Average
(Hours per
page)
Outcome
(Hours per
page)
Information Planning
Product stability
5
1.20
5.5
6.6
Other internal or external risks
Subsequent phases
Table 1. Dependency Table
Prioritizing dependencies by outcome and organizing them by project phase will help your team agree
which dependencies require immediate action plans and which dependencies should be monitored until
you have a clearer understanding of its level of difficulty and outcome.
After completing the dependency table, it helps to visualize overall project difficulty and determine how
dependencies will be handled. One method of visualizing project difficulty is what I call the Complexity
matrix discussed in Step 3.
Step 3: Create a Complexity Matrix
The complexity matrix summarizes a combination of possible actions based upon two dimensions of
difficulty: External and Internal level of difficulty. The complexity matrix provides a holistic view of
difficulty because internal and external dependencies are viewed together, not in isolation. The
interpretation of the complexity matrix in two dimensions provides a structured approach for reducing the
level of difficulty before it impacts time, cost, and schedule of the project and quality of the publication.
• Consider not doing the
•
•
project
Reconsider project
proposal
Transfer dependency
risk factors
•
•
H
•
• Reconsider project
•
•
• Create action plans
• Consider alternate
approaches
• Reduce internal or
• Create action plans
• Consider alternate
approaches
• Reduce dependency
risk factors
• Create action plans
• Reduce dependency
risk factors
external dependency
factors
M
•
proposal
Transfer or defer
dependency risk
factors
Consider alternate
approaches
Create action plans
proposal
Transfer or defer
dependency risk
factors
Consider alternate
approaches
Create action plans
• Create action plans
• Consider alternate
approaches
• Reduce dependency
• Create action plans
• Reduce dependency
• Create action plans
risk factors
risk factors
L
External level of Complexity
• Reconsider project
H
M
L
Internal Level of Complexity
where:
x is the average composite risk score for internal or external dependencies
L is somewhat complex, if x is less than 3
M is complex, if x equals 3, but less than 4
H is very complex, if x is between 4 and 6
Table 2: Complexity Matrix
Note:
This complexity matrix requires further validation and may need a more rigorous
mathematical treatment for calculating complexity.
To determine the dependency reduction strategy, develop a dependency table as illustrated in Table 1,
and compute the average composite score of all external dependencies and identify the appropriate row
on the complexity matrix. For internal dependencies, compute the average composite score of all internal
dependencies and identify the appropriate column on the complexity matrix. Where the row and column
intersect, that is the possible combination of actions to reduce the level of difficulty of the project. For
composite scores, refer to Hackos.
For example, if the average external dependencies composite score equals three, and the average
internal dependencies composite score equals four, then create action plans and implement the
dependency reduction strategy as indicated by the intersected area of the complexity matrix. Possible
actions indicated are:
•
•
•
•
Reconsider project proposal
Transfer or defer dependency risk factors
Consider alternate approaches
Create action plans
Reconsider project proposal
The team should assemble and re-examine project assumptions. Examine why the project was
estimated as it is, and weather or not you have the resources to complete the project within cost,
quality, and good customer relations.
Transfer or defer dependency risk factors
Work with the development team to assume responsibility for a dependency risk factor. For
example, include an agreed upon change control process as part of the contract. Include items
such as: draft review deadlines, differences between product changes and product
enhancements, project scope changes and the cost associated with each item.
Consider alternate approaches
•
•
•
•
Work with the development team to extend the project schedule.
Work with the development team to change the deliverable. Perhaps a beta draft is
acceptable until publication is complete.
Reduce costs internally, perhaps you do not need your best writer or project manager
Lastly, consider reducing the level of quality to meet schedule deadlines. Reducing quality
ultimately increases costs in other areas such as customer support, customer complaints,
and reputation, to name a few.
Create action plans
•
Discussed in Step 4.
One item not mentioned in the above example but mentioned in the dependency table is reducing
dependency risk factors. An example would be to reduce the writing and design learning curve.
Do not combine internal and external composite scores to determine an overall level of complexity. A
High level of complexity combined with a low level of complexity does not equal a medium level of
complexity.
A composite score greater than three on either dimension of the complexity matrix is cause for concern:
the risk should be re-examined or monitored closely.
Step 4: Create Action Plans
The complexity matrix indicates possible actions to reduce the level of difficulty of the project. One of
those actions is to create action plans. Each dependency driver in Figure 2 suggests a reduction plan.
The reduction plan is an action plan that reduces the level of difficulty of the project. Similarly, each
impact driver in the Figure 2 suggests a contingency plan. The contingency plan is an action plan that
reduces or minimizes the impact of the dependency driver should the reduction plan fail to reduce the
level of difficulty. Items in the reduction plan will point or link to items in the contingency plan.
In Figure 2, I identified the external dependency as product stability and its driver changing scope and
complexity. Because product stability is out of the project manager’s direct influence, reducing the effects
of this dependency is difficult and you should plan for frequent revisions to draft documents up to the final
draft. Likewise, I identified the impact as Information plan and Content Specification and identified a few
of the impact drivers.
The reduction plan and contingency plan may link together as shown in Figure 3.
Dependency Driver(s):
1. Changing Scope and Complexity
Reduction Plan:
1. Do not estimate project scope until the Information Plan and Content
Specification are complete.
Impact Drivers:
1.
2.
Time, resource, and budget
estimating
Schedule
Contingency Plans:
1 Attend “early-on” interface meetings with customer to assess scope
1a. Estimate scope based on similar projects done in the past
2. Consider percentage of total time when defining a deliverable for
each milestone. Plan to re-estimate during the course of the project.
2a. Establish a Change Control process to track and evaluate changes
to the schedule
Figure 3.
In real life, your reduction and contingency plans will not look like Figure 3. Instead, create a
spreadsheet with the following table headings:
Dependency
Dependency
Driver
Reduction
Plan
Impact
Driver
Contingency Plan
Team member
Resource
Date
Status
Table 3: Action Plans
Effective reduction and contingency plans should designate a responsible team member, a date, a
means of measuring progress and assigning resources to execute the plans.
Step 5: Monitor Dependencies
Update the dependency table and monitor the complexity matrix and action plans to determine if project
difficulty is increasing or decreasing throughout the project lifecycle. Revise budget, hours per page, and
resource estimates as needed, and update the project plan. Proactive monitoring of external and internal
dependencies reduces publication cost, team conflict, and improves publication quality and customer
satisfaction.
Summary
In summary, the success of the project is largely dependent on early identification of internal and external
risk factors, regardless of project size. Identifying and reducing the impact of dependency risk factors is a
team effort. The team should identify at least thirty dependency risk factors, preferably fifty or so and
store them in a database for later retrieval along with the action plans. Not all fifty dependency risk
factors will be relevant on every project, only a portion of them. By identifying and analyzing
dependencies and dependency drivers before the project begins, your team will be prepared to tackle
the most challenging of projects. Why wait for a catastrophe to start thinking about Risk?