ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE AT A REGIONAL SCALE IN THE PAMPAS OF ARGENTINA E. F. VIGLIZZO∗, A. J. PORDOMINGO, M. G. CASTRO and F. A. LERTORA INTA/CONICET, Centro Regional La Pampa, La Pampa, Argentina (∗ author for correspondence, e-mail: [email protected]) (Received 23 May 2002; accepted 25 September 2002) Abstract. Governments need good information to design policies. However, in the Argentine Pampas there are neither sufficient knowledge on environmental issues, nor clear perception of environmental alterations across space and time. The general objective of this work was to provide decision makers with a scientifically sound set of indicators aiming at the assessment of current status and future trends in the rural environment of this sensitive region. As driving criteria to select indicators, we assumed that they had to be sound, simple to calculate, easy to understand, and easily applicable by decision makers. They are related closely to significant ecological structures and functions. Twelve basic indicators were identified: (1) land use, (2) fossil energy use, (3) fossil energy use efficiency, (4) nitrogen (N) balance, (5) phosphorus (P) balance, (6) nitrogen contamination risk, (7) phosphorus contamination risk, (8) pesticide contamination, (9) soil erosion risk, (10) habitat intervention, (11) changes in soil carbon stock, and (12) balance of greenhouse gases. Indicators were geographically referenced using a geographic information system (GIS). The strength of this study is not in the absolute value of environmental indicators, but rather in the conceptualization of indicator and the identification of changing patterns, gradients and trends in space and time. According to our results, we can not definitely say that agriculture in the Pampas, as a whole, tends to be sustainable or not. While some indicators tend to improve, others keep stable, and the rest worsen. The relative importance among indicators must also be considered. The indicators that showed a negative net change are key to the identification of critical problems that will require special attention in the close future. Keywords: agro-environmental assessment, Argentine Pampas, regional scale, sustainability indicators 1. Introduction Environmental decision- and policy-makers require approximate quantification of environmental properties such as vulnerability, potential risk, conservation status or ability of ecosystems to recover after a perturbation (Villa and McLeod, 2002). Knowledge of such properties is essential, but its precise characterization requires investment in data collection, research and modeling that is not always possible in developing countries. As a result, measures and indicators are often calculated with poor scientific justification, arousing a controversy about their utility for sound decision making. Thus, a scientific-based guidance on environmental assessment suitable for decision makers seems to be quite urgent and necessary, especially Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 87: 169–195, 2003. © 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. 170 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. in agricultural ecosystems that suffer major changes in relatively short periods of time. This is a demand that needs to be matched in the Pampas of Argentina. Like any other economic activity involving nature, agriculture affects and is affected by the environment. Mutual effects cut across different levels and scales (Allen and Starr, 1982). In the Pampas region of Argentina, there are neither sufficient knowledge on environmental issues, nor clear perception of environmental alterations across space and time (Viglizzo et al., 1997). We have learnt that land use and technology were both major drivers of environmental alteration (Viglizzo et al., 2001). However, some critical questions are still unanswered: How have land use change and technology incorporation impacted on the rural environment? What critical environmental trends are detectable? What impacts can we project to the short- and mid-term? Certainly, the right answers are not simple, but this information is necessary to address the problem. Although indicators to measure social and economic changes are abundant in Argentina, proper indicators for assessing environmental changes are scarce. However, it is increasingly recognized that they are essential to: (a) assess changes in the rural environment at different geographic scales (farm, ecosystem, region and country), (b) guide preventive strategies and corrective tactics, and (c) deliver practical recommendations for users that operate at those different scales (producers, scientists, technicians, consultants, and policy makers that operate in national and international organizations). Governments need good information to design policies, and science and technology organizations are appropriate to provide it. At present, the conservation of environmental goods and services (e.g., water cleaning, air purification, soil erosion prevention, natural decontamination, mineral cycling, pollination, recreation, etc.) is not still considered a cost in public accounting. However, an appropriate valuation of affected goods and services that aims at internalizing environmental costs will be unavoidable in the near future. Pressures to do so increase in developed countries, and will grow in developing countries as well. The general objective of this work was to provide decision makers with a scientifically sound set of indicators that aim at assessing changes in the rural environment of the Pampas in Argentina. Specific objectives were: (a) to propose a standard monitoring system to describe and quantify changes (progress, stability or regress) in the rural environment; (b) to inform policy makers on changes in the rural environment, in particular in areas of higher risk, and (c) to facilitate the development of environmental policies, programs and projects. 2. The Pampas Ecoregion in Brief The Pampas ecoregion is a vast, flat region of Argentina that comprises more that 50 million ha of arable lands for crop and cattle production (Hall et al., 1992). Agriculture in the pampas has a short history (a little more than 100 yr) and shares ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 171 common features with the agricultural history of the American Great Plains. Both ecoregions were mostly native rangelands until the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th, and lands were then allocated to crop (cereal crops and oil seeds) and cattle production under dryland conditions. Provided that land cultivation was accomplished with unsuited tillage systems and machinery, they both were affected by heavy erosion episodes (dust bowls) especially on the fragile lands during the first half of the 20th century (Cole et al., 1989; Covas, 1989; Lal, 1994). The Pampas plain is not homogeneous in soils (Satorre, 2001). Using soil and rainfall patterns, the region can be divided into five homogeneous agroecological areas (Figure 1) as follows: (1) Rolling pampas, (2) Central pampas (which can be subdivided in Subhumid on the East and Semiarid on the West), (3) Southern pampas, (4) Flooding pampas, and (5) Mesopotamian pampas. Rainfall and soil organic matter, granular structure, and nutrient contents decline from East to West. According to FAO (1989) criteria, deep and well-drained soils predominate on the Rolling pampas, which provides conditions for continuous farming. In the Central pampas, despite increased wind erosion towards the West, most of the lands are suited for cultivation. The Flooding and Mesopotamian pampas are mostly devoted to cattle farming on native and introduced perennial pastures. Limitations for crop production in these areas are associated with shallow soil depth, frequent flooding, soil salinity, poor drainage, and water erosion. The mixed grain crop-cattle production systems have extended nowadays over most of the Pampas. Grain crops rotate among them and cattle pastures are integrated in mixed production programs under different land use schemes, all of which depend on environmental limitations. Cattle production activities, on the other hand, vary from cow-calf to cattle finishing. Rainfall regimes vary in time and space, causing occasional droughts and flood episodes that transitorily affect both crop and cattle production (Viglizzo et al., 1997). 3. Materials and Methods Different sources of information have been utilised in this study: (1) two national general censuses (years 1960 and 1988) that comprised the totality of farms scattered in 147 political districts, (2) one national survey for 1996, that comprised a sample of farms in different areas, (3) a variety of production and yield statistics regularly published by the Secretary of Agriculture of Argentina, and ((4) energy, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) concentration of inputs and outputs as determined by various authors. Data on land use and crop yields were analysed for all districts. Land use was expressed in terms of the relative area (%) of crops, pastures and natural grasslands with respect to the total area devoted to farming activities. The analysis was based only on predominant (crop and beef production) activities such as wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), maize (Zea mays L.), soybean (Glycine max L. 172 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. Figure 1. Location of the Pampas ecoregion and different ecological areas in the Argentine territory. Merr.), and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). Because of the lack of long term data, beef production was estimated from equations for each ecologically homogeneous area (Viglizzo, 1982) that relate stocking rate (available data) to meat production per hectare. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 173 3.1. S USTAINABILITY INDICATORS As driving criteria to select indicators, we assumed that they have to be sound, simple to calculate, easy to understand, and easily applicable by decision-makers. Efforts were put in avoiding the generation of multiple indicators that would not provide specific information, or that could become hard to interpret or use. Indicators here referred to significant ecological structures and functions, avoiding those that had low environmental significance. We faced the lack of sufficient data, variable quality of data and heterogeneity of data sources. Emphasis were put on the homogenization of data basis for all study areas. Thus, twelve basic indicators were defined: (1) land use, (2) fossil energy (FE) use, (3) fossil energy use efficiency, (4) nitrogen (N) balance, (5) phosphorus (P) balance, (6) nitrogen contamination risk, (7) phosphorus contamination risk, (8) pesticide contamination, (9) soil erosion risk, (10) habitat intervention, (11) changes in soil carbon (C) stock, and (12) balance of greenhouse gases (GHG). The databases were geographically referenced using a geographic information system (GIS). Dot-density maps were built for most indicators. The procedure allowed a graphic comparison of attributes on different areas. The detection of spatial patterns and density gradients for each study environmental parameter was the main outcome of this procedure. 3.2. L AND USE (I NDICATOR NO . 1) Land use is an indicator of high relevance in agro-ecology. Because they affect the functionality of agro-ecosystems, both land use and technology application are determinants of sustainability in the rural environment (Viglizzo et al., 2001). Land use refers to the purposes (Van Latesteijn, 1993; Rabbinge et al., 1994) by which lands are allocated in agriculture. Changes in land use generate spatial patterns and temporal trends of environmental alteration (International Geosphere-Biosphere Program/Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Program, 1995). This indicator was basic for calculating the rest of the indicators that were calculated here. In our case, different land use patterns in time and space were estimated in terms of the proportional allocation (%) of the land to: (a) native rangeland, (b) introduced perennial pastures, and (c) annual crops. 3.3. F OSSIL ENERGY USE (I NDICATOR NO . 2) AND FOSSIL ENERGY USE EFFICIENCY (I NDICATOR NO . 3) The use of fossil energy (FE) highly correlates with the intensification of agriculture. Being usually linked to contamination episodes and to greenhouse gases emission, the increasing use of FE is frequently associated with environmental degradation (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2000). This indicator was calculated by considering the annual energy costs per hectare of predominant inputs (fertilizers, seeds, concentrates, pesticides) and practices 174 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. (tillage, planting, weeding, harvesting, etc.) expressed in joules per hecatare. The fossil energy cost of inputs and practices were obtained from different sources of estimations (Reed et al., 1986; Stout, 1991; Conforti and Giampietro, 1997; Pimentel, 1999). Although it was not possible to check in detail the original procedures to estimate such figures, we assume they provide an acceptable estimation of all involved fossil energy costs. The fossil energy use efficiency was calculated by considering the amount of megajoules (Mj) of FE used to get one Mj of product. Calculations were made on annual basis taking into account the proportional participation of each analyzed activity. Under this scheme, the larger the amount of FE used to produce one unit of energy, the less efficient the production process was. When the input/output ratio decreases over time, the FE use efficiency increases and the relative environmental impact decreases in equivalent proportion. 3.4. BALANCE OF NITROGEN (I NDICATOR NO . 4) AND PHOSPHORUS (I NDICATOR NO . 5) Among other nutrients, the adequate supply of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) is essential to the plant growth and development. The consecutive cultivation of land through many years, alters the original nutrient endowment of arable soils. The accumulation of effects generates imbalances that worsen over time. If extraction exceeds supply over the years, the accumulation of negative balances may finally provoke a severe nutrient depletion, reduce crop yields and lower economic returns. Conversely, if supply exceeds extraction, the accumulation of positive balances can overload the soil with nutrients, causing potential for both soil and water contamination. Ideally, a well-balanced input/output ratio of nutrients is essential for achieving and maintaining soil sustainability. A simplistic procedure was followed here. The annual average of available N and P in soil was estimated as the difference between inputs and outputs per hectare and per year, in each study area. A simplistic assumption was adopted: (a) if extraction exceeds supply, soil fertility declines, and (b) if supply exceeds extraction, the excess is cause of potential contamination. The export of N an P by agricultural products was the only way of loss considered in this work. On the other hand, the considered ways of nitrogen gain were (a) precipitation, (b) fertilizers, (c) biologic fixation by legumes, and (d) purchased feed, later excreted as cattle urine and manure. The predominant phosphorus gains are fertilizers and purchased feed. 3.5. C ONTAMINATION RISK BY NITROGEN (I NDICATOR NO . 6) AND PHOSPHORUS (I NDICATOR NO . 7) The assessment of contamination risks by N and P is key for assessing the sustainability of intensive agriculture. For example, nitrate leaching into ground water can be risky for human and animal health. On the other hand, the runoff of water with ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 175 nitrates and P can increase the eutrophication risk on ponds and lakes. The rapid increase of algae and aquatic plants depletes the oxygen in water and alters the biota composition in surface water. Given that the balance of P was always considered negative in the Argentine Pampas, it was empirically assumed that contamination risk was low. But considering that phosphorus fertilization has rapidly increased in the 1990’s, the risk of contamination has probably increased, particularly in certain areas. The N contamination risk was calculated considering only the residual N when the N balance was positive. Dividing the amount of residual N by the amount of water available for nitrogen dilution (water excess), the N concentration in water can be estimated. The excess of water was calculated on annual basis from a water balance estimation, which takes into account the water gain by rainfall (mm yr−1 ) less the real evapotranspiration in the same period. Besides, the contamination risk calculation proceeded only in areas where the excess of water exceeded the water holding capacity of soils. We have utilized default values for water holding capacity of average soils cited by McDonald, 2000. They were: (a) 100 mm for a sandy or a sandy loam soil, (b) 150 mm for a loam soil, (c) 200 mm for a loam clay soil, and (d) 250 mm for a clay soil. Therefore, if the excess of water (rainfall – real evapotranspiration) was less than the water holding capacity of the soil, saturation did not happen, leaching was absent and the water contamination risk was low. A similar procedure was used to calculate the P contamination risk. 3.6. P ESTICIDES CONTAMINATION RISK (I NDICATOR NO . 8) The pesticides contamination risk was described here by a relative index. This indicator seems to be useful for doing temporal and geographic comparisons. Strictly speaking, absolute values are not meaningful. Calculation included the most common insecticides, herbicides and fungicides that predominated in different decades for the main agricultural activities. The actual toxicity values (LD-50) used were provided by manufacturers, and obtained from a well-known current pesticides guide (CASAFE, 1997).The pesticide contamination risk arises concern on: (a) water and soil degradation by pesticides residues, (b) air quality degradation by the volatile fraction of pesticides, and (c) the negative impact on biodiversity. This indicator was based on the assessment of the relative toxicity of predominant pesticides packages used in different decades for various farming activities in different areas of the Argentine Pampas. The land use allocation was the base layer of information on which pesticide packages, and their corresponding toxicity values, were superimposed. Commercially recommended application rates of active products were used for each area. The relative index for pesticide contamination was the result of summing-up each pesticide contribution per hectare, after multiplying the proportion (%) of land allocated to each analyzed crop, by the toxicity of each product. Using a GIS to superimpose various information layers, maps 176 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. of relative toxicity were produced for different ecological areas in the Pampas, in different decades. 3.7. S OIL EROSION RISK (I NDICATOR NO . 9) Soil quality was defined here as the soil capacity to sustain agricultural activities over time without affecting its productivity and the quality of the environment. Erosion has negative effects at the field level, and also can impact larger areas outside the field. Normally, erosion is expressed in terms of lower chemical fertility, yield falls, reduced soil infiltration and water retention, increased soil compaction and runoff, shift in soil pH, and ditch formation. Outside the field boundaries, the principal consequences are the sediment deposition on adjacent fields, sand dunes formation, sedimentation and embankment of drainage ditches and natural surface waters (ponds, lakes, creaks and rivers), water quality degradation, and water contamination. Unsuitable land use schemes and tillage practices can cause severe erosion in fragile lands. In general, the high quality soils tolerate some degree of erosion without affecting their productivity. In those cases, a natural soil forming process seems to compensate erosion losses, at least in the short-term. However, temporal trends in different areas need to be assessed and monitored to prevent undesirable consequences. In this work, the erosion risk was assessed by means of a relative index. The method was based on the relative quantification of main responsible factors that generate water or wind erosion. Four factors were multiplied: (a) land use (crop and pasture allocation in lands), (b) soil fragility (valued through the organic carbon content), (c) tillage practices (e.g., conventional, minimum tillage, or no-till), and (d) slope. Although digital elevation models could be very useful for getting reliable slope data, this factor was considered irrelevant for our analysis because the Argentine Pampas is very large flat plain with no steep slopes. Accepted criteria (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2000) classify water erosion risk into five categories: tolerable (less than 6 metric tons of sediment loss per hectare and year), low (6 to 11 tons), moderate (11 to 12 tons), high (22 to 33 tons), and heavy (more than 33 tons). The method used here allows only for estimation of a relative erosion risk. A family of equations for getting a quantitative estimation of absolute losses (expressed in ton ha−1 yr−1 ) due to erosion would have been ideal, but the lack of such tool did not allow us to get quantitative comparisons. 3.8. H UMAN PRESSURE ON HABITATS (I NDICATOR NO . 10) Over the centuries, agriculture has transformed natural habitats into human-designed habitats. Despite the fact that agriculture has historically benefited from biodiversity, habitat intervention by agriculture greatly reduces natural biodiversity. Biodiversity has provided agriculture (a) germplasm and gene variability, (b) pollinators, (c) beneficial insects and control agents, and (d) waste disposal and recyc- ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 177 ling pools. On the other hand, diversified agriculture could also benefit biodiversity, through integrated farming schemes that favor the recovery of environments that were impoverished by monoculture. Land use change seems to be the most relevant impact factor on biodiversity (Sala et al., 2000). But tillage practices and pesticides are vehicles of habitat aggression as well. The aggressive agronomic practices can reinforce the negative impact of intensive land use on habitat and biodiversity. The estimation of a habitat quality index (HQI) that we have used here, resembles the above described method for calculating the risk erosion indicator. Under the assumption that human action affects habitat and biodiversity, this method was used to generate a relative HQI to assess the degree of human intervention on the habitat through (a) land use, (b) tillage practice, and (c) pesticide contamination. Land use was the proportion (%) of land cultivated annually with grain crops. The tillage practice factor was the same that was used for estimating soil erosion risk. The same coefficients obtained from the estimation of pesticide contamination risks were used here as well. The combined HQI factor was the result of the simple multiplication of those three intervention factors. Thus, the higher the proportion of annual crops, the aggressiveness of tilling practices, and the toxicity of pesticides, the greater the detrimental effect of humans on habitats. 3.9. C HANGES IN SOIL CARBON STOCKS (I NDICATOR NO . 11) Carbon (C) is the main component of organic matter, and therefore a factor that strongly determines soil quality. Organic matter decays are associated with soil fertility and soil structure losses, and also with a higher soil erosion risk. Depending on organic matter gain or loss, soils can respectively act as a sink or a source of atmospheric C. Thus, C stocks are dynamic and highly sensitive to human action. After about 20 yr under cropping, soils can lose up to 35% of their original organic matter endowment. Most soils seem to reach equilibrium at that point, and further changes depend on land use, tillage and other agronomic practices. Well-designed agronomic strategies can convert losses into gains, and a sizable incorporation of C is possible. However, it is unlikely we can achieve a full recovery up to levels of pristine stages. The procedures followed in this work were based on the IPCC (1996) reviewed guideline methodology. An initial C stock that varied according to the study area was estimated. Calculation of this stock was achieved assuming that the soil C content for 1960 was 65% of the initial content of native soils. As the soil C content in 1960 varied according to the study ecological area, so did the estimation of the original value. Past information on land use was the basic factor utilized for calculating changes in the C stock. In the long term, factors associated with crops and pasture vary: while perennial pastures improved the C stocks, annual crops depleted such stock. Tillage practices were associated with coefficients that represented different C ox- 178 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. idation rates. While minimum- and no-till practices favored soil C sequestration, the conventional tillage was cause of C emission. Furthermore, the IPCC method provided default coefficients values for organic matter enrichment of soils via crop residue accumulation. 3.10. G REENHOUSE GASES (GHG) BALANCE (I NDICATOR NO . 12) Atmospheric gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), nitrous oxide (N2 O), ozone (O3 ) and water vapor, are normal components of the atmosphere that have, at the same time, a greenhouse effect. Such gasses are transparent to short wave radiation that reaches the earth, but they are opaque to earth emission of long wave radiation. The consequence is that emissions bounce, and the trapped radiation increases the global temperature of the Earth. As a natural phenomenon, the global warming caused by the greenhouse gases is known as natural g reenhouse effect. The greenhouse gases concentration has remained rather constant over 10 000 yr. But anthropogenic emissions increased dramatically during the last 200 yr, raising the global temperature. Fossil fuels consumption for industry and commerce, transportation, household comfort, deforestation and soil cultivation are considered major causes of increased GHG emissions, triggering a human-driven global warming that had no antecedents in the Earth history. Carbon dioxide and CH4 account for 90% of the human-driven greenhouse effect. Atmospheric concentration of these gases has respectively increased 30, 15 and 145% for CO2 , N2 O and CH4 (Desjardins and Riznek, 2000). Grain crops and cattle are both significant sources of greenhouse gases that need to be estimated for the Pampas plain. The GHG balance for rural areas was estimated following the standard guidelines of IPCC (1996). All gases were converted into CO2 equivalent (ton ha−1 yr−1 ). The calculations included emission and sequestration due to land use change, grain cropping and cattle production activities. The use of fossil fuels was another major source of CO2 . The method included fuels used in rural activities and fuels used for manufacturing fertilizers, herbicides and machinery. Because of the heterogeneity of cases and procedures, emissions due to rural transportation were not included in our calculations. Ruminants were a significant source of GHG. Ruminants emit methane from enteric fermentation and fecal losses. Methane has a greenhouse power that is 21 times greater than CO2 . This figure was used to convert CH4 into CO2 equivalents. Nitrogen excreted in feces and distributed with fertilizers was another significant source of nitrous oxide (N2 O) emission. N2 O has a greenhouse power 310 times greater than CO2 . Losses of N2 O occur via volatilization, leaching and runoff. Arable soils were also a direct source of greenhouse gases through fertilizers, biological N fixation and crop residues. When data from direct field measurements were unavailable, default values suggested by the IPCC (1996) were used for estimating gains and losses of carbon. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 179 The methodology proposed by IPCC (1996) estimated emission or sequestration of CO2 through the following components: (1) CO2 stock exchange in soils over time (CO2 -SC), (2) CO2 stock exchange in timber biomass (CO2 -BL), (3) conversion of forests and prairies into arable land (CO2 -CTBP), (4) abandonment of intervened lands (CO2 -aband), and (5) emission of CO2 from fossil fuels burning (CO2 -CF) in different agricultural activities. Items 2, 3 and 4 were not relevant in our study, and were not included in our estimations. The procedure estimates CH4 emission from 3 sources: (1) enteric fermentation (CO2 -FE) from domestic animals, (2) fecal emissions (CO2 -EF), and (3) rice crop emissions (CO2 -EA). Our study took into account the first 2. Because rice is not a predominant crop in the Pampas, it was not included in the study. Emissions from ruminants were calculated from beef cattle only. The emission of N2 O was the most difficult to estimate because of the complexity of determinations. Emission sources are: (1) Feces and urine (CO2 -EDHO) from domestic animals, (2) volatilization, runoff and infiltration (CO2 -EIVLI) from synthetic fertilizers and animal excrements (urine and feces), and (3) arable soils (CO2 -EDSA), through chemical fertilizers, biological N fixation and crop residues. Therefore, the final equation for estimating the CO2 balance was: CO2 balance = (CO2 -SC + (CO2 -BL + CO2 -CTBP + CO2-aband) + CO2 -CF) + ((CO2 -FE + CO2 -EF) × 21) + ((CO2 -EDHO + CO2-EIVLI + CO2 -EDSA) × 310) 4. Results and Discussion The strength of this work lies in the identification of geographic patterns and gradients, and the interpretation of temporal trends, more than on the absolute value of the estimated indicators. We aimed at determining if environmental conditions are improving, worsening or keeping stable over time. We consider that comparisons among areas and decades are not invalidated by some methodological constraints mentioned above. 4.1. L AND USE AND LAND USE CHANGE : TOWARDS A MORE INTENSICE MODEL A previous analysis based on national censuses from 1881 to 1988 (Viglizzo et al., 2001), has demonstrated that the five homogenous study areas differ both in land use and land use change patterns. In comparison to the rest of the agrecological areas, grain crops had their faster expansion in the Rolling pampas, replacing the pristine natural lands. A cropland profile supported by a high environmental potential for crop production, has characterized the Rolling pampas during the last century. 180 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. The Flooding and the Mesopotamian pampas, on the other side, have the lower capacity for crop production. Due to soil quality and topography limitations, the proportion of land devoted to cereal crops and oil seeds has remained low and constant across time. A net predomination of introduced and native pastures define a net orientation to cattle production in both areas. In terms of agricultural productivity, the Central and the Southern pampas are both in the middle between the natural conditions of the areas mentioned above. They are characterized by predominant mixed, grain crop-cattle production systems. Soil quality and climatic limitations have prevented a larger conversion of grazing lands to croplands. During the 1990’s, however, technologies that aimed at increasing productivity and reducing environmental impacts (e.g., no-till planting, fertilization to minimize nutrient depletion) have favored the expansion of grain crops. Maps in Figures 2 and 3 show, in a time-space dimension, land-use changes during the period 1960–2000. Figure 2 illustrates the expansion of wheat, maize, sunflower, soybeans, and winter and summer small-grain pastures. Color intensity shows a consistent increase of croplands in the Rolling pampas and in the mixed systems of Central and Southern pampas. Croplands expansion, however, did not happen by forcing livestock into marginal lands, as it was frequently assumed. Furthermore, legume-based perennial pastures have also increased, primarily on the Central, Southern and Flooding pampas (Figure 3), as an indication of a simultaneous intensification of crop and cattle production in these areas. The planting of improved annual and perennial pasture species, the increased use of concentrate feeds and the management of a higher animal stock density in smaller areas, have characterized the predominant livestock production system in the Pampas. Land use patterns and land use changes were key factors for explaining the environmental behavior of the Pampas. All indicators, from fossil energy consumption to contamination risk, from erosion risk to GHG emission, were particularly sensitive to land use. Technology was the second important factor. Results clearly suggest that the 1990’s decade was the starting point in land transformation, mainly in the Rolling pampas, but also in the Central and the Southern pampas. 4.2. A N INCREASING ENERGY STATUS Some limitations in the calculation of fossil energy (FE) consumption and FE use efficiency need to be stated. Firstly, the FE cost of inputs and activities was not always well documented in literature, and accuracy of data can be argued in some cases. Secondly, some inputs or activities were underestimated due to their small participation in the general calculation, and also due to insufficient data. Thirdly, data reported in the literature were not always updated in response to technology change. And fourthly, the imprecise description of calculations reported in the literature raises the risk of double accounting in some cases. Figure 2. Changes in the area allocated to annual crops (wheat, maize, soybean, sunflower, winter and summer annual pastures) in the Argentine pampas during the period 1880–2000. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 181 Figure 3. Changes in the aland allocated to cultivated perennial pastures during the period 1880–2000 in the Argentine pampas. 182 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 183 TABLE I Fossil energy (FE) efficiency use in the Argentine pampas during the period 1960–2000. Comparison among ecologically homogeneous areas Pampas Efficiency of FE use (Gj of FE consumed per Gj of energy produced) 1960 1988 1996 Regional average 0.22 0.16 0.17 Rolling Central subhumid Central semiarid Southern Flooding Mesopotamian 0.17 0.35 0.45 0.18 0.13 0.18 0.11 0.18 0.44 0.14 0.12 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.41 0.15 0.15 0.23 Figure 4 shows changes in energy productivity (Gj ha−1 yr−1 ) and FE consumption (Gj ha−1 yr−1 ) in the five study areas between 1960 and 1996. The results indicate that the energy status and the energy fluxes have increased all over the region, and primarily in a belt defined by the Rolling, the Central sub-humid and the Southern pampas. The increased proportion of grain crops mostly explains this increased energy budget. Table I provides figures on FE use efficiency over the three analyzed historical periods. Although they have higher FE consumption, the areas where grain crops have largely expanded show energy yields that greatly exceed those where cattle production predominates. Consequently, croplands show a higher FE efficiency use. Furthermore, efficiency tended to increase in parallel with the increasing energy yield of annual grain crops. The larger adoption of minimum and no-tillage practices that demand less FE use, was probably highly associated with that increased efficiency. 4.3. N UTRIENT BALANCE AND NUTRIENT CONTAMINATION : BETWEEN THE RISK AND THE CHALLENGE The complexity of the N and P cycles in the Pampas was clearly demonstrated by our own research (Bernardos et al., 2001) supported by the EPIC model (Williams et al., 1989). It was quite evident that the elementary input-output approach that we have used here does not properly represent real cycles simply because the complex dynamics between nutrients pools and fluxes were not properly captured. Ideally, rates of leaching, run-off, sediment and volatilization should have been considered in our estimations. However, time and cost limitations to gather such information in Figure 4. Changes in energy (Mj ha−1 yr−1 ) harvested through predominant agricultural products (wheat, corn, soybean, sunflower and beef) within the period 1969–2000 in the Argentine pampas. 184 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. 185 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA TABLE II Estimation of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balances in ecologically homogeneous areas of the Argentine pampas during the period 1960–2000 Pampas N balance (kg ha−1 yr−1 ) P balance (kg ha−1 yr−1 ) 1960 1960 1988 1996 40 Regional average 0.23 1.76 70 1988 100 9.0 16.3 26.8 Rolling 2.40 –6.03 –0.5 14.6 29.7 Central subhumid –1.04 –5.29 11.8 18.3 24.8 Central semiarid 2.43 3.20 12.5 16.6 20.8 Southern –2.65 2.83 6.8 12.8 18.7 Flooding 1.01 8.35 11.4 5.7 19.9 Mesopotamian 1.16 6.83 6.5 10.7 14.8 1996 40 70 100 –2.03 – 5.07 – 5.9 –4.2 –2.3 –3.66 –2.11 –0.91 –1.86 –1.25 –1.03 –12.71 – 5.66 – 1.56 – 3.84 – 1.48 – 1.22 –12 – 7.1 – 5.1 – 4.6 – 1.8 – 3.2 –9.2 –5.6 –4.4 –3.1 –0.3 –1.7 –6.2 –4.1 –3.9 –1.6 –1.2 –0.2 In 1996, the estimations include 3 fertilization hypothesis: 40, 70 and 100% of the area was fertilized following commercial recommended dose. each analyzed geo-political district, were not overcome. In this context, the simple input/output approach was adopted as the best option available, assuming that negative balances indicated nutrient loss, and the positive ones indicated potential contamination. Beyond such limitations, the method seems to be useful for making geographic and temporal comparisons. Likewise, the lack of accurate information on evapotranspiration and water soil retention capacity at the district level was an additional limitation. The method had low resolution for detecting contamination risk in areas of high animal concentration (beef and dairy feedlots, poultry and pig farms), or in irrigated areas for intensive fruit and vegetable production. Neither was the method sensitive for detecting contamination risk under unexpected meteorological events, such as heavy rains that result in flooding or excessive leaching. Table II shows a comparison of changes in N and P balances. A significant increase of N and P extraction from 1960 to 1996, consistent with cropland expansion, was detected especially in the Rolling pampas. But such extraction also occurred in less productive areas like the Central Sub-humid pampas. Because of the lack of precise data on fertilizers use during the 1990 decade, three hypothetical fertilization schemes based on commercial recommendations were considered: 100, 70 and 40% of the area devoted to grain crops, respectively. This allowed a simplistic interpretation about varying degrees of fertilizer adoption in different areas. The risk of contamination was closely related to positive balances of nutrients and water. In the case of P, the whole region would have underwent a net negative P balance, even in the 1990’s (Table III). In the 1990’s, positive balances were only 186 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. TABLE III Estimation of the relative soil erosion risk in the Argentine pampas and its ecologically homogeneous areas during the period 1960–2000 Pampas Regional average Rolling Central subhumid Central semiarid Southern Flooding Mesopotamian Coefficient of relative erosion risk 1960 1988 1996 0.11 0.08 0.16 0.21 0.13 0.06 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.11 0.20 0.11 0.03 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.12 0.26 0.10 0.05 0.10 detected where extraction is very low (grazing lands), and when P fertilization becomes a massive practice (in 100% of lands). The systematic fertilization of crops and prairies has consolidated in the Pampas during the 1990’s. Considering the three hypothetical fertilization levels previously discussed, if fertilization were reduced to 70% or to 40% of the total area, positive nitrogen balances tended to disappear, and negative phosphorus balances were inevitable. Despite the three levels of fertilization discussed, we assumed that the 40% level has probably represented the more realistic scenario for the 1990’s. 4.4. P ESTICIDE CONTAMINATION RISK : UPS , DOWNS AND UNCERTAINTIES The calculation method applied was based on several assumptions. Firstly, although the utilized pesticides varied largely, pesticide packages were uniform in all areas for each particular crop. We have to recognize, however, that alternative packages for similar activities have been utilized, especially during the 1990’s when the offer of commercial pesticides has multiplied. Secondly, our model assumed that all crops have systematically received the commercially recommended doses. And thirdly, for each study period, the method has calculated a ‘potential toxicity’ that was the toxicity summation of all applied pesticides. It was also assumed that the larger the combined potential toxicity of applied pesticides, the larger the impact on biodiversity. Field measurements were ideally required, but no direct field measurements of pesticides impact on biodiversity was possible for this study. Figure 5 shows the estimates of relative indices of contamination risk due to pesticides application between 1960 and 2000. The expansion of croplands and the increasing use of pesticides over the decades would explain the significant increase of pesticide contamination risk, especially during the 1990’s. The effect seems to ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 187 be particularly dramatic in the most productive areas, for example in the Rolling pampas, but also in areas where cropland expanded. However, field studies are required to confirm this estimation. We suppose that this warning trend may reverse in the near future because a family of new, soft pesticides are being introduced at present in the commercial market. Some common and highly toxic pesticides used during part of the 90’s were banned nowadays. 4.5. S OIL EROSION AND HABITAT THREATS : CONTRASTING TRENDS The relative coefficients used to evaluate the soil erosion risk were calculated taking into account the predominant soil quality, land use and tillage practices in each period. Table III depicts the estimations of relative erosion risk for the different Pampas areas in the period 1960–2000. The higher risk tended to concentrate on the Western lands of the Central pampas, where the conversion of grazing lands into croplands has exposed their fragile soils to increasing wind and water erosion. With the exception of the semiarid Central pampas where the risk increased, the estimates show that the erosion risk kept rather stable in the rest of the areas during the 1990 decade. Despite the expansion of the cropping area, this stabilized performance was probably the result of the increased adoption of soil conservation tillage, which would have compensated the more intensive use of land. Similarly, the relative coefficients used to assess the degree of habitat intervention by humans were estimated taking into account three driving factors: land use, tillage operations and pesticide contamination risk. A combined factor arose from multiplying the three factors. Although no long-term data is available on the effects of agriculture on wildlife in the Pampas, we assumed that a relative intervention index would provide an indirect estimation of agricultureþs impact on biodiversity across space and time. Nevertheless, this indicator says nothing about the actual impact of man on biodiversity. Ideally, this method should include the assessment of habitat fragmentation on key species. Figure 6 shows the relative index of habitat intervention across ecological areas and over time. Estimations demonstrated that the greatest intervention would have taken place over the most productive lands of the Rolling pampas. Aggression would have been particularly strong during the 1990’s. The lowest degree of intervention was detected both in the Flooding and the Mesopotamian pampas. These areas still conserve large proportions of land devoted to cattle production on native and improved pastures. Tillage operations and pesticides application are minimum. This agrees with results of a previous work of Viglizzo et al. (2001). 4.6. C ARBON STOCKS AND GHG EMISSIONS : IMPROVING TRENDS The method applied was rather simplistic if we accept that the soil C dynamics is very complex. Because our assumptions were strong, an unavoidable degree of uncertainty about the accuracy of estimations had to be accepted. Land use, Figure 5. Estimation of the relative risk of pesticides contamination in different areas of the Argentine pampas within the period 1960–2000. 188 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. Figure 6. Estimation of the relative risk on habitats and biodiversity due to human intervention in different areas of the Argentine pampas within the period 1960–2000. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 189 190 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. climate, soil and tillage interactions, added to agronomic practices, were major sources of variation in soil C stock responses. Furthermore, the lack of data to estimate the original soil C content in some areas has introduced an additional constraint. Likewise, soil sampling errors and the quality of laboratory analysis in the past are other sources of uncertainty that could not be overcome. Therefore, results comprise average estimates that were considered the best information available. According to the results, the whole Pampas plain has experienced a significant loss of soil C between 1960 and 2000 (Figure 7). Over the 40 yr study period, the largest loss of C has taken place in areas where grain cropping is the main activity, primarily the Rolling pampas. It should be noted, however, that despite the increase of the cultivated area in time, the C loss rate has declined in time. Rates of C loss were significantly lower in the 1990’s than in the 1960’s. The quick expansion of minimum-and no-tillage may be the main factor explaining this behavior. On the other hand, the procedures suggested by the IPCC (1996) to estimate GHG emissions are relatively new. Then, some uncertainty about results has arisen when models and suggested default values were applied. Ideally, experimental and field data would be necessary to adjust procedures and coefficients to each environment under analysis. Our results suggest that the whole Pampas has behaved as a net emitter of GHG between 1960 and 2000 (Figure 8). The larger net emissions were found on the Rollling pampas and the Central pampas during two (1960 and 1988) of the three analyzed periods. A generalized decline in emissions for the whole region was estimated for 1996. However, differences among the five study areas have persisted. We have interpreted that minimum and no-till practices were the main responsible for these positive changes. The reduced fossil fuel consumption due to minimum or no-tillage operations has reduced CO2 emissions and favors C retention in soil organic matter over time. 5. Conclusions Probably, this work represents a pioneer effort for getting, at a regional scale, an integrated view of the environmental sustainability of agriculture in the Argentine Pampas. It can also be viewed as a first contribution to get a permanent system of environmental monitoring for rural areas in the country. Certainly, both strengths and weaknesses should be taken into account. Weaknesses were in turn pointed out when each indicator was considered in particular. One obvious conclusion is that our calculation methods and techniques need to be perfected. An extra effort is needed to capture not only geographical patterns and gradients, and time tendencies, but also to get a realistic quantification of such changes. The strengths of this study are not in the absolute value of environmental indicators, but in the identification of patterns, gradients and trends in space and time. This allowed us to determine if critical environmental parameters are keeping Figure 7. Estimation of carbon losses (t C ha−1 yr−1 ) in different areas of the Argentine pampas during the period 1969–2000. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 191 Figure 8. Estimation of greenhouse gases emission (t C ha−1 yr−1 ) in different areas of the Argentine pampas during the period 1960–2000. 192 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN ARGENTINA 193 stable, improving or worsening across time. We must also consider the relative importance of factors. Since they depend on the use of an index, they should have different weights. Beyond the results, two questions have arisen: is the Pampas agriculture sustainable? Are their production trajectories sustainable in time? Indicators differed in their behavior and trends. Nowadays we can not say that agriculture, in the whole Pampas, is sustainable or not sustainable. While some indicators tend to improve, others keep stable, and the rest worsen. Furthermore, the projections of trends are no homogeneous in all areas. The transition towards a more intensive model of agricultural production, both in terms of land use and technology application, has clearly characterized the 1990’s. The production and environmental trajectories indicate that many farming systems in the Pampas are resembling some intensive models that are common in the Northern Hemisphere. In response, we need a new productive and environmental view to replace the traditional one. The trajectory of indicators differed in different ecological areas. Positive changes were detected in most areas: (a) a higher efficiency in fossil energy use, (b) a lower risk of soil erosion, (c) a decreasing risk of soil carbon loss, and (d) a consistent decline in greenhouse gases emissions. No-till and conservation tillage have apparently driven those beneficial changes. Some negative changes that deserve especial attention were observed on the other hand. Some issues that should be taken into account are the following: (a) the regional N balances tended to become positive in many cropping areas, delivering residual N that can potentially contaminate soils and water. The contamination risk tended to increase as the N fertilization increased. However, given that fertilization levels were neither high nor homogeneous in all areas, we believe that the risk of contamination is still low in the Pampas as a whole, (b) provided that P balances were negative in most of the studied areas, the risk of P contamination still appears to be rather far in the future, and (c) a more careful assessment of the increasing risk of pesticides contamination during the 1990’s needs to be considered. The indicators that showed a negative trend are key to identify critical problems that will require special attention in the close future. Putting aside the geographic heterogeneity, an environment degradation belt is emerging. Starting from the Rolling pampas, the belt is extending over many districts in the subhumid Central pampas. Thus, a potentially trouble area that would require close attention was detected. An environmental policy, and a well-defined set of research priorities, are necessary to face future challenges on this environmentally critical belt. Finally, the long-term monitoring system for the rural environment through the support of reliable indicators, appears to be a key tool to guide environmental policies, to drive research priorities, and to orient communication strategies. A periodic updating of information is crucial to detect critical changes in space and time, and to fit environmental strategies and tactics that match vital needs of the region. 194 E. F. VIGLIZZO ET AL. Acknowledgements We thank the Secretary of Science and Technology of Argentina for the financial support to this research. We also acknowledge the contribution of various public institutions for providing key data for this study, and many colleagues for their valuable comments and recommendations. 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