Review Paper
Pak. J. Agri., Agril. Engg., Vet. Sc. 21(2)2005
PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE IN GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
B.A. Sheikh*, S.A. Sheikh* and G.H. Soomro*
The agriculture sector faces some crucial and critical challenges. Pakistan population
during the last three decades has increased from 65 million to 161 million at present, and
is expected to increase to 234 million by 2025 reaching 357 million by 2050. The situation
of per capita availability of land and water in the country is extremely alarming and has
further accentuated the problem of agriculture productivity. The per capita land availability
has progressively declined to 0.15 ha at present, shrinking further to 0.06 ha by 2050.
Similarly, the per capita water availability has dropped from 5600 cu meters to 1200 cu
meters, which could slip further to the water-deficient level below 1000 cu meters per
year by 2010 onwards. Therefore, we must possess the potential and the ability to meet
growing demands for food, for which the planning in the past, had been half hearted,
erratic and uncertain. The demands on the use of natural resource base will almost
surely increase in ways we cannot even imagine today. In a finite, interdependent, and
rapidly changing world, the maintenance of strong food, fiber, and forest production
systems and the protection and wise use of our natural resources is the need of the hour.
The interdependency of agricultural production practices with conservation of land and
water systems has now linked farmers with environmentalists. Food safety concerns and
ground water contamination are changing contemporary thinking about food and fiber
production with the balance of nature. Genetic engineering, biotechnology, alternative
practices, and sustainable rural development are simultaneously linked with global
climate change, acid rain, ground water contamination and extinction of species. The
projected annual increases in food production in the coming decades to meet our
domestic needs are 3-4%. Expanded crop areas or higher production per unit land area
per unit time are the only sources for the achievement of 3-4% increase in production.
The only way to obtain these increases could be from intensification of landuse for higher
yields and increase in the number of crops produced per year. It is thus mandatory for all
the stakeholders including policy planners and decision makers not to loose their sight
while ensuring food security in the backdrop of expected population growth, from
livelihood security and ecological rehabilitation in years to come particularly in Pakistan.
calling for substantial increase in food production.
There will be no option except to import food, if
increases in demographic and socio-economic
demands and related constraints are not matched
by an adequate increase in productivity through
land.
Agriculture forms the largest sector of national
economy of Pakistan. It is strongly linked with
food
security,
poverty
alleviation,
rural
development and as a means to achieve bigger
goals, for example, employment led economic
growth through its linkages and multiplier effects.
The agriculture sector, however, faces some
crucial and critical challenges. Pakistan population
during the last three decades has increased from
65 million to 161 million at present, and is
expected to increase to 234 million by 2025
reaching 357 million by 2050 on the basis of UN
medium variant projection (assuming to drop from
total fertility rate (TFR) of 5 children per woman
to 2.1 during the next 25 years). This buildup
of massive population momentum will place
immense pressure on agriculture resource base
*
Worldwide arable land is already less than 0.2 ha
per capita at present, and is expected to further
shrink to 0.15 in 2050. Situation is extremely
alarming in Pakistan, where per capita land
availability has progressively declined to 0.15 ha
at present, shrinking further to 0.06 ha by 2050.
Similarly, the per capita water availability has
dropped from 5600 cu meters to 1200 cu meters,
which could slip further to the water-deficient level
below 1000 cu meters per year by 2010 onwards.
Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam, Pakistan.
53
54
Therefore, we must possess the potential and the
ability to meet growing demands for food, for
which the planning in the past, had been half
hearted, erratic and uncertain. The greatest
challenge lying ahead for all of us is to increase
food and fiber production while maintaining the
ecosystem stability and rehabilitation of the
environment. The issues and challenges in this
regard are to be overcome in such a manner, so
that, everyone can be adequately and nutritiously
fed without over-exploiting the Earth’s resources.
This is more so necessary in the light of
Agriculture Scenario in Pakistan in the past
half century during which we have only
witnessed stagnation instead of expansion and
environmental degradation instead of upgradation.
This had further been aggravated due to
inadequate resource allocation to the sector
commensurating to its contribution in G.D.P.
(Gross Domestic Products) further jeoperdising
R&D efforts in the sector to keep pace with time
and the needs which happen to be emergent in
nature.
It is projected now, however, that almost all future
increases in food production will be through
increase in yield (output per unit land area and/or
animals per unit time) and from growing additional
crops during a given year on the same land.
There are really, no other viable options. This
underscores in a dramatic way, the importance of
science and new technologies for meeting future
national and global food needs. Environmental
issues will become more challenging as more
land, water, fertilizers and pesticides are diverted
to food production to attain higher productivity.
New technologies will accentuate for the use of
more, not less, inputs and chemicals (fertilizer,
pesticides) to increase food production. This is
going to happen as population continues to
increase and demands continue to inflate.
As a matter of fact, due to shrinkage in arable
land and intense cultivation, many societal global
problems have emerged relating to agricultural
sustainability and food security. These include
poverty, malnutrition, inflation, unemployment,
loss of soil fertility, soil erosion, deforestation,
desertification,
firewood
shortages,
toxic
chemicals in our environment, changing climate
impacts, and agricultural production stability.
These problems strongly suggest for developing
world including Pakistan to reassess the human
needs and seek technologies that will result in
stable production through higher yields. These
challenges therefore must be seriously addressed
to their accomplishment in a sustainable manner.
Sustainable agriculture biodiversity, including that
of plants and animals, and natural resources,
requires that their ownership and control lie
with decentralized agricultural communities to
generate livelihoods, provide food and conserve
the environment and the ecosystem. These three
dimensions i.e., ecological security, livelihood
security and food security must be the essential
elements of a national agriculture policy and
development programs, which must be launched
and embarked upon in a focused manner not only
to overcome issues mentioned above but also
through utilizing the technical expertise to
surmount the challenges lying ahead, which are:
a) The Gene Revolution
The past two decades have seen dramatic
advances, in understanding of how, biological
organisms function at the molecular level, as well
as in our ability to analyse, understand, and
manipulate DNA molecules, and the biological
material, from which the genes in all organisms
are made. The entire process has been
accelerated by the Human Genome Project, which
has contributed substantially into the development
of new technologies, for working with human
genes. The same technologies are directly
applicable to all other organisms, including plants
and animals. Thus, a new scientific discipline of
genomics has arisen. This discipline has
contributed to powerful new approaches in
agriculture and medicine, and has helped to
promote the biotechnology industry. Genomics is
being followed by the science of proteomics,
which is likely to provide exciting insights into the
working of the cell. The future increased needs in
agriculture productivity could only be envisaged
through genetic manipulation in crops, fruits and
vegetables.
b) The Ecotechnology Revolution
Knowledge is a continuum. There is much to learn
from the past, in terms of the ecological and social
sustainability of technologies. At the same time,
new developments have opened up new
opportunities for developing technologies, which
can lead to high productivity, without adverse
impact on the natural resources base. Blending
traditional and frontier technologies, leads to the
birth of ecotechnologies, with combined strength
in economics, ecology, equity, employment and
energy.
55
c) The Yield Revolution
Productivity improvement will be possible only, if
greater attention is paid, to improving the
efficiency of input use, particularly nutrients and
water. To cite just one example, cotton yields in
Pakistan are less than 20 percent of the yields,
achieved in several other countries like Egypt and
USA. To bridge the gap between actual and
potential yields, prevailing at the currently
available levels of technology, a multidisciplinary
constraint analysis will have to be undertaken in
different regions and farming systems. In the short
term, the highest priority should go to utilizing the
untapped production reservoir, existing at current
levels of technology. In the longer term, the
prospects for improving yields further without
associated ecological harm, will have to be
explored.
d) Sustainable Agriculture and Technological
Advancement:
Sustainable development is the management and
conservation of the natural resource base, and the
orientation of technological and institutional
change in such a manner as to ensure the
attainment and continued satisfaction of human
needs for present and future generations. Such
sustainable development (in the agricultural
livestock, fishery and forestry sectors) which
concerns land, water, plant and animal genetic
resources, is environmentally non-degrading,
technically appropriate, economically viable and
socially acceptable.
Sustainability concerns have occupied a place on
the global agenda, with publication of the
International Union for the Conservation of
Nature’s (IUCN) World Conservation Strategy and
the Brundtland Commission’s report “Our
Common Future”. Though visions of sustainability
vary across regions and circumstances, a broad
international consensus has emerged that its
goals should be to foster a transition toward
development paths to meet human needs while
preserving the Earth’s life support systems and
alleviating hunger and poverty integrating the
three pillars, namely environmental, social and
economic sustainability.
Reckless exploitation of natural resources to push
up agricultural growth in the past, has put severe
pressure on the resource base of several
developing countries. Improvement in the
household food security may not be possible
without ensuring a sustainable agriculture through
the blend of conservation of the resource base
and induction of new technological breakthroughs
by harnessing biotechnological approaches in
agriculture.
Science in its diverse forms has much to offer by
way of solutions, to finding escape routes from
poverty and answer questions of resource
sustenance, through sustainable agriculture and
technological advancement. Therefore, the need
for policy makers to come to grips with these
issues, cannot be overstated. Biotechnology has
matured to the stage of generating products of
commercial significance. The acceptance of these
technologies, however, depend upon many
factors, which are beyond the realm of science.
There is a general agreement that biotechnology
offers many advantages both through productivity
increase as well as, through improvement in the
quality
of
agricultural
products.
Serious
reservations, however, persist about health and
environmental
implications
of
large-scale
application of biotechnology. It is important that
these concerns are adequately addressed to.
Despite the fact that population pressure will
demand increased supply of food, agriculture and
biotechnology research offers the best solution.
For developing the technologies it is essential to
harvest advantages of genetic engineering, stem
cell propagation and tissue culture etc. However,
it is yet to be certain if the products of its
application will find consumer acceptability.
Therefore, there is need for discussions and
demystifying the technology. A decision relating to
the acceptance of technology should be based on
the balance sheet of risks versus benefits.
However, the risks if associated, including the
perceived ones, need to be evaluated in the
aftermath of overall national needs and interests.
Another important concern relates to the ecology
and environment. Increasing emphasis on
environmental protection, as a policy objective,
has a bearing on the structure of agricultural
production. So, the agriculture development plans,
need to be synchronized to the agro-ecological
systems, in different regions of country, keeping in
view, the peculiarities of situations. But, it is also a
fact and be kept in mind that the modern
technologies will continue to affect agricultureenvironment interface. The future development
strategies must therefore, simultaneously address
the economic objectives, the social concerns and
ecological restraints warranting a partnership
56
approach amongst various stakeholders i.e.
farmers, economists, scientists and government in
the sphere of technical change. The precision
technology has potential to make a major
contribution to agricultural production without
influencing the environment negatively.
e) Liberalized Trade Regime
Liberalized agriculture trade is the issue of
potential concern, that agriculture sector is faced
with these days. Along with the technical
breakthroughs,
agriculture
has
witnessed
significant institutional changes. The most
important among these is the liberalized
agricultural trade regime characterized by the
Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) under the World
Trade
Organization.
The
Agreement
on
Agriculture is seen by many to enhance welfare
gains of the partner countries. There are skeptics,
however, who not only question the volume of
gains but also raise serious concerns on the
distribution of gains from the perspective of the
developing countries. One may objectively argue
that the implications of AoA have not been fully
comprehended by the developing countries in
their rush to sign the agreement. An important
question is whether a rushed agricultural trade
liberalization will really help the developing
countries? Any developing economy can go down
the hill from a fairly reasonable state of growth
situation to a situation of ever rising imports of
foodgrain. This, in turn, would also have a
significant dampening effect on agriculture
productivity, employment and social stability.
f) Societal Characteristics, Inequities and Food
Security:
It is now widely accepted that poverty is currently
the principal root cause of food insecurity at the
level of households. Food security at the level of
each individual is hence, important. UNDP’s
Human Development Report for the year 2000,
titled “Human Rights and Human Development”
chronicles the different kinds of inequities
prevalent in contemporary societies. The report
points out that “poverty limits human freedoms
and deprives a person of dignity”. The Vienna
Declaration, adopted at the 1993 World
Conference on Human Rights, also affirms that
“extreme poverty and social exclusion constitute a
violation of human dignity”. The report stresses
that expanding human capabilities and securing
human rights can empower poor people to escape
poverty. It is clear that the poor in this country are
poor only, because, they have no access to the
resources. Hence, the basic approach to poverty
eradication has to be asset building and human
development.
Food Security is another issue that we are
confronted within the perspective of the population
growth trends in Pakistan. Therefore, adequate
food availability is fundamental to human health
needs. The demand for plant and animal food is
determined by multiple factors. Amongst them
are, the population size, rate of change in per
capita income, process of urbanization, changes
in dietary patterns and changes in income
generation.
Since land and water will be shrinking resources
for agriculture, there is no option in the future
except to produce more food and other
agricultural commodities from less per capita
arable land and irrigation water. In other words,
the need for more food has to be met, through
higher yields per units of land, water, energy and
time. It would therefore be useful to examine, how
science can be mobilized for raising further, the
ceiling to biological productivity without associated
ecological harm.
Keeping in view the exponential increase in
human population and their food needs in the
coming years, it is to be decided what kind of
planning is needed to be done? It will surely be
within the framework of human needs, that
agriculture and animal production systems will
perform, over the coming decades.
When we talk about our agricultural resource
base, we are talking about severe and growing
problems. Our annual top soil loss is increasing
and water may soon outrank land as a major
constraint to Pakistan food production. The
finiteness of our land and water resources; the
impact of overuse and erosion of our lands, the
increasing pressures of our people for more
mouths to be fed, but also in their growing
demands for the use of land and water resources
will affect our agricultural production capacity.
The projected annual increases in food production
in the coming decades to meet our domestic
needs are 3-4%. Expanded crop areas or higher
production per unit land area per unit time are the
only sources for the achievement of 3-4%
increase in production. The only way to obtain
these increases could be from intensification of
landuse for higher yields and increase in the
57
number of crops produced per year. To do this,
one must consider the resource inputs (land,
water, energy, fertilizer, pesticides, human
labour, machinery), their costs, availability and
renewability.
g) Global Warming and Glaciers Meltdown in
Himalayas
Global warming is defined as “the increase in
average temperatures on the earth caused by the
greenhouse effect, through gas emissions due to
extensive use of fossil fuels as a principal
contributor to pollution leading to change in
climate”.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) has predicted that humanity’s
emissions of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases will raise global average
temperature by 1.4-5.8oC (2.5-10.4oF) by the end
of the century which will affect weather patterns,
water resources, the cycling of seasons,
ecosystems and extreme climate events.
Temperatures in the Himalayan region have
increased by more than 1oC recently and are set
to rise by a further 1.2oC by 2050, and by 3oC by
the end of the century. This heating has already
caused 24 of Bhutan’s glacial lakes to reach
‘potentially dangerous’ status. The conditions are
not different in Nepal. Similar is the situation in
northern mountains of our beloved country in
Himalayan, Hindu-kush and Karakorum ranges.
Future disasters around the Himalayas will include
‘floods, droughts, land erosion, loss of biodiversity
and changes in rainfall and the monsoon’. The
roof of the world is changing, as can be seen by
Nepal’s Khumbu glacier. Which has retreated
three miles since 1953. Almost 95 percent of
Himalayan glaciers are also shrinking---and that
kind of ice loss has profound implications not just
for Nepal and Bhutan, but for surrounding nations,
including China, India, and Pakistan. Eventually,
the Himalayan glaciers will shrink so much that
their melt waters will dry up. At the same time,
rivers fed by these melted glaciers---such as the
Indus, Yellow and Mekong---will turn to trickles.
Drinking and irrigation water will disappear.
Hundreds of millions of people will be affected.
There is a short-term danger of flooding too much
water as coming out of the Himalayas and a
greater long-term danger of their not being
enough in years to come, leading to loss of
agriculture, productivity, starvation and increased
poverty etc. It is therefore, mandatory for all in the
region to plan for future and embark upon
execution of options available to us.
h) Environmental Degradation & Wetland
Rehabilitation:
Another problem that is of specific concern to the
agriculture and human health pertains to
environmental
degradation
through
global
warming, unabated waste and industrial effluents
particularly in rivers, canals and wetlands, which
may be lead to environmental disaster in years to
come, particularly in developing countries.
Wetlands have been defined as “areas of marsh,
fen, wetlands or water, whether natural or
artificial, permanent or temporary with water static
or flowing, fresh, brackish or salt-laden including
areas of marine water, the depth of which at low
tide does not exceed six meters”.
Wetlands in Sindh are undergoing a process of
decline and degradation primarily due to
population pressure, industrial/ domestic pollution,
pesticides runoff and lack of awareness about the
wetlands. A major threat to wetlands has been
ignorance of the ecological services provided by
them. Due to wetland’s importance on productive
ecosystem, serious steps need to be taken with
special emphasis to the potential of their
conservation, productivity, and the extent of
degradation. There is need to address the factors
for conservation vis-à-vis degradation of wetlands
with respect to the biodiversity, water quality, and
aquatic ecosystem.
The agro-industrial toxic waste and the so called
anthropogenic effluent drained through the
freshwater canals discharge into wetlands has
severely damaged the food chain. The toxic waste
is hazardous not only to the wild birds, but, to the
whole biodiversity of wetlands, which include fish,
turtles, and other aquatic life. The fish from these
heavily polluted wetlands is netted in large
quantities and sold in the markets without testing
and residue analysis of bio-accumulated
pollutants present inside cells and tissues of fish
exposing the consumers to health hazards.
Similar conditions prevail for domestic livestock
(grazing and drinking polluted water) and the
fishing
communities
inhabiting
the
area
(consuming unhygienic water, fish, birds and
aquatic plant foods).
Degradation of environment will also result due to
use of new technologies which will call for
58
increased use of chemicals (fertilizer, pesticides)
to increase food production. Toxic chemicals in
the environment (many of them pesticides and
fertilizers) have been declared environmental
threats and hazards to human health and wellbeing. Debates will continue on issues of food
safety, deleterious effects on fish and wildlife,
endangered species and caracinogenicity. It has
not yet been clarified by anyone, as to what an
environmentally sustainable set of agricultural
production technologies might be?
In the light of given perspective, it is anticipated
that demands on the use of natural resource base
will almost surely increase in ways we cannot
even imagine today. In a finite, interdependent,
and rapidly changing world, the maintenance of
strong food, fiber, and forest production systems
and the protection and wise use of our natural
resources is on the anvil. The interdependency of
agricultural production practices with conservation
of land and water systems has now linked farmers
with environmentalists. Food safety concerns and
ground water contamination are changing
contemporary thinking about food and fiber
production with the balance of nature. Genetic
engineering, biotechnology, alternative practices,
and
sustainable
rural
development
are
simultaneously linked with global climate change,
acid rain, ground water contamination and
extinction of species.
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