1 2 Storms, Flooding, Landslides • Increasing Impact of Severe Weather, Flooding, and Related hazards Forget not the lessons learned from past disasters because many have sacrificed their lives while we learnt the lessons. • Hurricanes/Typhoons & related storms – and resulting flooding, wind damage, and coastal erosion • Severe thunderstorms, Tornadoes • Winter storms - @Amodmanidixit • Heavy rain and flooding • Drought • Wildfires – forests, grasslands, etc. • Wind • Flooding – where, how often, human interventions • Landslides – causes and solutions Storm/Landslide/Flooding news and information (updated often by Dr. Kuehn): https://www.diigo.com/outliner/6p1lf3/Weather-Related-Hazards?key=lwodxl39z1 2015-16 Headlines 3 Storms and Flooding Learning from the past, reducing risks for the future * Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/overview Policy: Hurricane Katrina’s lessons for the world : Nature News & Comment http://www.nature.com/news/policyhurricane-katrina-s-lessons-for-the-world-1.18188?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews Hurricane Matthew causes record flooding, matching FEMA flood maps http://temblor.net/flood-insights/hurricanematthew-causes-record-flooding-matching-fema-flood-maps-1589/ Build cities that work with nature not against it http://www.scidev.net/global/design/multimedia/build-cities-natureaudio-ovink.html Hurricane Matthew in pictures http://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/hurricane-matthew-powerful-atlantic-storm/ Horrific rains and ocean surge: Hurricane Matthew by the numbers 4 2015-16 Headlines We must build resilience into our communities http://www.nature.com/news/we-must-build-resilience-into-ourcommunities-1.18223?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather- gang/wp/2016/10/11/horrific-rains-and-ocean-surge-hurricane-matthew-by-the-numbers/ Post-Sandy Rebuilding for Resiliency: Lessons From Long Beach, NY | Steven Cohen http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/post-sandy-rebuilding-for_b_7878556.html 15 of the deadliest, most destructive hurricanes in US history http://www.businessinsider.com/deadliest-hurricanesstorm-in-american-history-2016-9 New Landslide Legislation to Help Alleviate Hazard Risks http://thebridge.agu.org/2016/04/12/new-landslidelegislation-help-alleviate-hazard-risks/ Floods that hit New York City every 500 years now hit every 24 | New Scientist https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28254-floods-that-hit-new-york-city-every-500-years-now-hit-every-24/ $200M relocation project that moved a mountain to save Grundy, VA pays off http://www.bdtonline.com/news/m-relocation- project-that-moved-a-mountain-to-save-grundy/article_8d92ed9c-ee48-11e5-9336-3769bae935de.html What Does A '100 Or 1000-Year Rain Event' Actually Mean? – Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/10/05/what-does-a-100-or-1000-year-flood-actually-mean/ Sandy's Lessons Lost: Jersey Shore Rebuilds in Sea's Inevitable Path https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25102016/hurricane-sandy-new-jersey-shore-rebuild-climate-change-rising-sea-chris-christie Map of 56 years of tornado tracks http://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/140158745717/map-of-56-years-oftornado-tracks-by-f-scale Hurricane Sandy, 2012: 285 deaths $71.4 billion damages Hurricane Matthew 5 Hurricane Matthew 6 Wind Rain Storm Surge Flooding • Death toll in the hundreds • More than a million needed assistance http://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/hurricane-matthew-powerful-atlantic-storm/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/11/horrific-rains-and-ocean-surge-hurricane-matthew-by-the-numbers/ http://abcnews.go.com/US/town-north-carolina-water-hurricane-matthew/story?id=42724119 1 7 8 Hurricane Matthew Hurricane Matthew Flooding https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-matthew-bahamas-florida-georgia-carolinas-forecast Hurricane Matthew 9 Sandy's Lessons Lost: Jersey Shore Rebuilds in Sea's Inevitable Path 10 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25102016/hurricane-sandy-new-jersey-shore-rebuild-climate-change-rising-sea-chris-christie Forget not the lessons learned from past disasters because many have sacrificed their lives while we learnt the lessons. Storm Surge - @Amodmanidixit Cost of Weather Disasters (Storms, Flooding, Landslides, Etc.) •NOAA Billion Dollar Weather-Climate Disasters http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/ 11 West Virginia Economic Impact 1960-2005 Occurrence of Loss Causing Hazard Events 12 Total Losses from Hazard Events ($2005 Millions) Source: http://webra.cas.sc.edu/hvriapps/sheldusmap/SheldusMaps.aspx?State=West+Virginia&Search=Submit+Query 2 13 Drought 14 Hurricanes and Typhoons 2014 Drought problems: water shortages, agricultural losses, power generation problems, ecological impacts, etc. Major contributors to hurricane disasters: - Wind can be up to 200 mph or more! Rain sometimes feet of rain in a day Storm surge seawater floods the coast, sometimes resembles tsunami Coastal erosion Vulnerable cities and towns, especially in low coastal areas http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/mapping-the-spread-of-drought-across-the-us.html 2015 Sets a New Record for Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes and Typhoons http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/record-most-category-4-or-5-hurricanes-typhoons California through Washington had drought again in 2015, plus lots of fires. Texas got flooded instead. 15 2012 Hurricane Sandy • Broke the record for largest storm in recorded Atlantic basin history • Multi-billion dollar disaster impacting the most heavily-populated part of the U.S. • Widespread flooding due to heavy rain and storm surge • Sea level rise made it worse, perhaps adding a billion $ to the cost •Before & After Photos http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/shocking-before-after-photos-of- 16 Flooding Flooding is a natural river (and coastal) process. Most floods result from heavy rainfall, rapid snow melt, or a combination of both. During a river flood the amount of water (discharge) is more than will fit in the river channel, and the excess spills out onto the flood plain. hurricane-sandy#.qibz5LyRP •Pictures: Floods, Fire, Snow in the Aftermath http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/10/pictures/hurricane-sandy-pictures-floods-fire-snow-in-the-aftermath/ Flooding becomes a problem when people get in the way. •Hurricane Sandy: Death Toll Rises, Costs Could Reach $50 Billion http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2012/10/hurricane-sandy •NASA Warned New York About Hurricane Danger Six Years Ago - Scientists told us a storm like Sandy would be catastrophic USGS: http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/category/natural-hazards/ http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-climate-change-sea-level-rise •USGS Responds to Hurricane Sandy http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/sandy/ •USGS Flood Information on Sandy http://water.usgs.gov/floods/events/2012/sandy/index.php 1996 flood in Liuzhou, China Flooding is a normal river and stream process. This city is built on a river floodplain as are many other cities. NOAA flood monitor: http://www.noaawatch.gov/floods.php 17 18 Flood frequency curve The recurrence interval for the largest flood often is estimated based on data for smaller floods. Forecasting based on past flood history only works if enough data has been collected and the river system hasn t been changed significantly. Many river systems have been changed by human activity, and this can have a big effect on the accuracy of flood probabilities. Chapter 13 Understanding Earth Current River Observations (US national map) http://water.weather.gov/ahps/index.php or http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=us&w=real%2Cmap The "100-Year Flood" http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/FS-229-96/ Fig. 14-29 Geology 2nd edition Chernicoff 3 19 Effects of Landscape Changes 20 Land clearing, fires, urbanization, destruction of wetlands, etc. Flood-frequency curve for the Skykomish River at Gold Bar, WA Fig. 14-28 Geology 2nd edition - Chernicoff A different river would have a different curve Relationship between flood size (discharge) and frequency or probability of occurrence. A ten-year flood has a 10% chance of happening in any particular year. Fig 13.15 Understanding Earth 21 https://www.epa.gov/wetlands See also: USGS Fact Sheet The 100-year Flood http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/FS-229-96/ USGS Fact Sheet Effects of Urban Development on Floods http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs07603/pdf/fs07603.pdf Station information: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?12120000 23 24 Older, 1982 map compared to a newer, 1998 map. The newer map uses both more accurate land elevation data and a more accurate (larger) estimate of flood discharge. USGS Open File Report 98-200 Improving Flood Hazard Mapping USGS Open File Report 98-200 http://wa.water.usgs.gov/pubs/ofr/floodgis/ Map of flood depth using the improved data. USGS Open File Report 98-200 New laser mapping now helping to improve flood maps: http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/3d-elevation-weve-got-you-covered-in-all-50-states/ 4 25 26 What can people do about flooding? Mass Movement & Landslides • • • • Research studies to better understand the problems Make maps showing what areas are most hazardous Educate people Land use planning and zoning regulations for future development (e.g. avoid building in the most hazardous areas) • Disaster preparation Hazard Maps http://app.temblor.net/ • Supplies http://www.mapwv.gov/flood/ • Emergency plans & practice Flooding Maps and Information, • Control flood waters Flood Insurance Rates, Guides • Fix and improve levees for Homeowners, Etc. http://quake.abag.ca.gov/floods/ • Dams and retention ponds • Build or improve flood channels and bypasses • Raising existing houses (on fill or on stilts) 2015-16 Headlines Mass movement includes all processes that transport large quantities of rock, sediment, soil, etc. down a slope due to gravity. It occurs on most slopes and can range from very slow to very fast. Heavy rain is a common trigger. Types of Landslides & Mass Movements: Creep – really slow Rock fall Debris flows, earth flows, & mudflows Slumps AGU Landslides blog http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/ http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2011/07/12/two-of-the-best-videos-so-far-why-you-dont-want-to-get-caught-by-a-landslide/ http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2011/10/20/an-interesting-and-large-landslide-in-iceland/ 27 28 Landslides How Rain Turns Dirt into Disaster – Wired http://www.wired.com/2015/10/how-rain-turns-dirt-into-disaster/#slide-1 * Videos and images of the 2015 mudflows in the Tehachapi Mountains, California - The Landslide Blog http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2015/10/18/tehachapi-mountain-mudflows/ * Dozens feared dead as hillside collapses on town in Guatemala http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/03/dozens-feared-dead-as-hillside-collapses-on-town-in-guatemala?CMP=twt_gu Human losses from landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean - The Landslide Blog 11,631 died over ten years; worst in places that combine people, steep slopes, and rain http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2015/08/24/latin-america-and-the-caribbean-1/ * Bonne Nuit, Jersey: a strange place to build a new Care Home? http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2016/03/15/bonne-nuit-1/ 1995 landslide in La Conchita, California Photos from U.S. Geological Survey Learning from the past, reducing risks for the future New Landslide Legislation to Help Alleviate Hazard Risks http://thebridge.agu.org/2016/04/12/new-landslide-legislation-help-alleviate-hazard-risks/ Next: landslide video 29 30 Sample case study: Landslides in São Paulo, Brazil: An integrated historical perspective Ophir Chasma landslide, Mars NASA The growing severity of floods and landslides in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, is related to rapid environmental changes, such as urbanization, deforestation and settlement in hazardous areas, rather than to natural events, and unless more sustainable land-use practices are adopted the impact of these (un)natural disasters might become more severe. http://www.pages-igbp.org/download/docs/Nunes_2011-2%2860-62%29.pdf For example: Deaths from mudslides in Brazil http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/01/world/main6045455.shtml 5 32 31 Creep is the slowest type of mass movement. Almost all slopes consisting of unconsolidated material creep a few millimeters up to several centimeters per year. Creep may produce tilting of objects such as fence posts, telephone poles, and retaining walls. It also causes curved trunks in trees on creeping slopes. Fig 11.11 Understanding Earth and NOAA Types of rapid mass movement Geology - Chernicoff 33 Fig 11.16 Understanding Earth Upper part of a slump 34 Geology - Chernicoff Fig 11.8 Understanding Earth Rockfall is the fastest type of mass movement. It occurs when loose material falls from very steep or vertical slopes. Small rockfall in a road cut in the Blue Mountains of Oregon S. Kuehn More examples: http://www.google.com/search?tbm=isch&hl=en&source=hp&biw=1440&bih=746&q=rock+slide&gbv=2&oq=rock+slide 35 Fig 11.13 Understanding Earth Debris flows, earth flows, and mud flows - composed of soil, rock, other debris, and water Slump - a type of slide that separates along a concave surface. Slumps generally do not travel far, and the material within the slump tends to move as a unit and not become mixed. Slump along a road http://pubs.usgs.gov/mf/1999/mf-2325/ 36 Debris flow deposits are often poorly sorted and may contain boulders that are larger than normal stream flow can transport. Ancient debris flows can be identified from similar deposits. Fig 11.14 Understanding Earth April 2015 debris flow in Floyd County, KY damaged a house and left deposits downhill of this photo @matt_m_crawford http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3106 6 37 Landslide causes Contributing factors: 38 balance of slope strength vs. gravity • Type of slope material: sand, gravel, clay, bedrock, etc. • How steep the slope is • Amount of water (rain and storms) • Vegetation (fire) • Presence and orientation of fractures or other zones of weakness Illustration: the maximum stable slope angle (angle of repose) for particles of different sizes and shapes. Possible landslide triggers: • Rain • Earthquakes (some have no obvious trigger) Frequency of landslides and amount of precipitation in the Seattle area. Increasing the risk: • Cutting into slopes to make them steeper Water contributes to landsides by adding weight and by lubricating loose sediments. • Building on or near unstable slopes • Failing to control water runoff Fig 11.6 Understanding Earth Fire can remove vegetation and decrease slope stability thereby increasing the potential for erosion and landslides (especially debris flows) Fractures along sedimentary40 bedding, Arizona 39 Enhanced erosion following a fire near San Luis Res., CA Photo by S. Kuehn Photo by S. Kuehn, October 2005 Cutting into slopes to build roads and buildings increases the risk of mass movement by making slopes steeper. Fig 11.5 Understanding Earth Photo by S. Kuehn Fractured volcanic rocks and fallen boulders at Pinnacles National Monument, CA Zones of weakness such as fractures and layers also contribute to the risk of mass movement 42 41 Reducing Landslide Risks Identify hazardous areas • Identify factors that increase the hazard Small landslide (slump and earthflow) in a road cut along Hwy 70 in CA • Computer models to understand hillsides • Find and map past landslides • Map areas with high landslide potential Strengthen problem slopes Control water Leave highest-risk areas Small rockfall in a road cut in the Blue Mountains of Oregon 1994 landslide near McClures Pass, Colorado Avoid building on or near creeping slopes Land use planning (avoid making it worse) Education USGS 7 43 Watch out for early signs of movement and for evidence of past mass movement. USGS OFR 95-213 44 Avoid steep bluffs with unconsolidated sediments January, 1997 USGS OFR 98-239 Make maps to show where the hazard is greatest. 45 March 24, 2014 Washington State Landslide 46 •At least 41 people killed •Previous slides at same location in 1949, 1951, 2006; Lots of old slides in valley. •1999 report warned of continued risk to town. •Slide occurred during wettest March on record * Before and After: Photos Show Mudslide's Destruction - NBC News.com http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-mudslide/after-photos-show-mudslides-destruction-n60596 * USGS Computer simulation of landslide https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NzHCOhKr7g * USGS Landslide Report (preliminary) http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1065/ (see last page) 36 Oso landslide victims identified http://www.king5.com/news/local/36-Oso-landslide-victims-identified-254903541.html The Steelhead landslide in Oso, Washington State http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2014/03/25/the-steelhead-landslide-1/ What Started the Mudslide? Satellite Image May Offer New Clues - NBC News.com http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-mudslide/what-started-mudslide-satellite-image-may-offer-new-clues-n66166 With dozens still missing, Washington mudslide search lumbers on - CBS News http://www.cbsnews.com/news/with-dozens-still-missing-washington-mudslide-search-lumbers-on/ It s gone ; Washington community struggles after deadly mudslide - CBS News http://www.cbsnews.com/news/its-gone-washington-community-struggles-after-deadly-mudslide/ see also: http://landslides.usgs.gov/learning/nationalmap/ Washington mudslide: Scientist warned of "potential for large catastrophic failure," - CBS News http://www.cbsnews.com/news/deadly-washington-mudslide-scientist-warned-of-potential-for-large-catastrophic-failure-paper-reports/ Landslide in Oso, Washington NO NATIONAL SYSTEM TO TRACK LANDSLIDE HAZARDS (March 2014) http://bigstory.ap.org/article/no-national-system-track-landslide-hazards http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ellen-moyer-phd/landslide-in-oso-washingt_b_5135878.html 48 47 Control water and improve drainage Stabilize landslide-prone slopes e.g. by build sufficiently strong retaining structures Installing drain systems to reduce the amount of water in a slope can reduce the risk of landslides. S. Kuehn, 2005 Shannon & Wilson, Inc. Keller – Environmental Geology 8 Local 49 Explore Online - Flooding 50 Water Science for Schools – elevated house, effect of pavement on flooding http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/impervious.html Flood insurance subsidy revamp targets West Virginia hard http://www.bdtonline.com/wvstate/x787230019/Flood-insurance-subsidy-revamp-targets-West-Virginia-hard Flood Hazards, A National Threat http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3026/ Mercer County continues flood mitigation efforts Significant Floods in the United States During the 20th Century http://ks.water.usgs.gov/pubs/fact-sheets/fs.024-00.html http://www.bdtonline.com/local/x787234684/Mercer-continues-flood-mitigation-efforts Current River Observations (map) http://water.weather.gov/ahps/index.php Flood Warnings http://www.weather.gov/ahps/hic/WFOs/FLOOD/ Hourly Precipitation records http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_hourly.php Flood mitigation: Mercer project must continue http://www.bdtonline.com/editorials/x1233046362/Flood-mitigation-Mercer-project-must-continue Map and Hydrographs for our region http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index_nonjs.php?wfo=rnk&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6 NWS Blacksburg VA and region http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/ USGS Science – Natural Hazards http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/category/natural-hazards/ Flood, Stream Flow, and Drought Maps http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=flood,map&r=us&w=real,map Explore Online - Flooding 51 Landslides – more examples 52 Ohio – March 20, 2012 http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57401627/falling-boulder-damages-ohio-home-crushes-cars/ USGS list of major landslides by year http://landslides.usgs.gov/recent/?PHPSESSID=n2jadq60bmt2hsv3kiji5l4ku6 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Waterwatch http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch real time stream flow, daily/yearly/weekly stream flow, drought, flooding AGU Landslides blog ** http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/ National Weather Service - flooding, high/low flow http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hic/current/river_flooding/ http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2011/07/12/two-of-the-best-videos-so-far-why-you-dont-want-to-get-caught-by-a-landslide/ http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2011/10/20/an-interesting-and-large-landslide-in-iceland/ Hwy 410 in Washington State buried by major slide- Oct. 11, 2009 http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010044629_webmudslide11m.html (See gallery photos 1 & 11) http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3444/4004690085_04d03278d8_b.jpg http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010213314_landslide06m.html (note warning signs in advance of slide) http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010051939_landslide13m.html (ultimate cause uncertain; slide mechanism discussed) http://slidingthought.wordpress.com/2009/10/page/2/ http://slidingthought.wordpress.com/page/3/ http://slidingthought.wordpress.com/category/general-landslides/page/2/ (lots of good stuff on the blog about WA state landslides) USGS Surface Water News http://water.usgs.gov/osw/ Principles of Flood Management http://www.friendsoftheriver.org/fotr/BeyondFloodControl/no1.html Flood Statistics – damages and loss of life http://www.weather.gov/hic/flood_stats/index.shtml Rethinking Development on Floodplains article http://www.crcwater.org/issues4/calfloodplain.html http://search.nwsource.com/search?from=ST&query=410+landslide&x=21&y=10&searchtype=network (more stories about this slide) http://www.google.com/search?q=washington+410+landslide (more about this slide – stories, photos, videos) 53 54 More about landslides 130-year history of landslides for La Conchita, California USGS Landslide Hazards Program http://landslides.usgs.gov/ Landslide info from VA Dept. of Mines, Minerals, and Energy http://www.dmme.virginia.gov/DMR3/landslides.shtml http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~jeff/projects/la_conchita/apcg2001_article/apcg2001_article.html VA Natural hazards (business-oriented site) http://www.vaemergency.com/business/hazthreats/natural/geologic/index.cfm About landslides and reducing the risks – WA State Dept. of Ecology http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/sea/landslides/prevent/prevent.html Landslide info from Calif. Emergency Management Agency http://hazardmitigation.calema.ca.gov/hazards/natural/landslide Kelso, WA landslide: amazing photos, landslide video, etc. http://www.nwgeoscience.com/kelso/ (Aldercrest is best) Southern California—Debris Flows in Wildfire Areas http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3106/ Landslide hazard photos - NOAA Natural Hazard Slide set http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/results?eq_0=7&t=101634&s=0&d=1 Debris-Flow Hazards in the United States - U.S. Geological Survey http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-176-97/ General overview of landslides http://wapi.isu.edu/EnvGeo/EG4_mass_wasting/landslide2.html contains a computer-simulated landslide http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/elnino/landslides-sfbay/photos.html Sliding Thought Blog – landslides in WA state http://slidingthought.wordpress.com/ 9
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