PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 121 6 Preferential trade agreements AND MULTILATERAL LIBERALIZATION Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund With the Doha Round of trade negotiations ailing, the future of multilateral liberalization in the near term looks bleak. By contrast, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) continue to multiply (see Acharya et al., ch. 2 in this volume), making regionalism the most active mode of trade liberalization. The regionalization of trade is of serious concern to many international economists who view multilateralism as far superior to regionalism for improving welfare. At issue is the preferential nature of regional agreements, which could divert trade and reduce the potential for future multilateral liberalization. The multilateralists argue that, although regionalism may increase trade, its effects on welfare and on the world trade system are likely to be harmful. There are two main concerns.1 The first is trade diversion: preferential trade agreements, by diverting trade away from the most efficient global producers in favor of regional partners, may prove welfare reducing. The second concern, which is of greater importance, is that regionalism may hinder multilateralism, leading to a bad equilibrium in which several regional trade blocs maintain high external trade barriers. Regionalism can also undermine multilateralism simply by diverting limited government resources from multilateral negotiations. These two concerns are related: in a highly regionalized world, there is likely to be significant trade diversion and hence lower welfare. Still, this feature of the bad equilibrium makes it less likely in practice. It is precisely because the trade diversion is costly to bloc members that there is an incentive to reduce external tariffs. As tariffs fall, trade diversion disappears, and regionalism becomes a force for general liberalization. Thus, despite the potential for a grim outcome from high-tariff regional blocs and for large amounts of trade diversion, the theoretical literature shows that incentives to reduce external trade barriers so as to limit costly diversion are likely to be present.2 The nascent empirical literature is tackling the question of how trade liberalization has been affected by the formation of PTAs. Although the verdict is not yet in, the evidence indicates that regionalism is broadly liberalizing. This chapter summarizes the available theoretical and empirical evidence on the relationship between regionalism and multilateralism, with the aim of discerning whether the spread of regionalism is likely to be a threat to, or an opportunity for, broader trade liberalization. The next section identifies the distortions that generate a need for regional and multilateral trade agreements. There follows an overview of the available theoretical work on whether regionalism constitutes a stumbling block or a building block on the path to trade liberalization. The effect of regionalism on world welfare is then examined, the empirical literature is surveyed, and conclusions are drawn. Reciprocal Trade Agreements If there is one thing economists agree on, it is that free trade is best. Why, then, do we need trade agreements to lower tariffs? In fact, although global free trade may be good for world welfare, countries nevertheless have reasons to maintain tariffs. There ensues a prisoner’s dilemma: each country may be unilaterally better off with a tariff, but jointly they are worse off. Cooperation through a trade agreement is necessary to liberalize trade. 121 PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 122 122 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund Countries have tariffs for three main reasons. First, terms-of-trade considerations may induce a country to use tariffs to drive down the price of its imports relative to the price of its exports, thus raising welfare for the nation as a whole. For example, suppose a large country exports wine and imports cheese. By placing a tariff on imported cheese, the country increases domestic demand for wine relative to cheese, and if the country is large enough, this practice raises the world price of wine relative to cheese. If both the importing and the exporting country impose tariffs, however, the relative world prices of wine and cheese remain roughly unchanged, leaving consumers in both countries worse off because domestic prices are distorted. Consumers in both countries are consuming more of the domestic good than is ideal (given world prices), terms-oftrade gains do not materialize, and world welfare is reduced. Second, there may be political constraints. Tariffs can be used as an internal redistribution tool by governments— typically to shift income to some favored industry, region, or group of voters or political contributors. For example, many economies tend to protect steel because production is commonly concentrated regionally and the workers and firm owners tend to be politically organized. This combination of political organization and geographic concentration often means that the sector’s concerns may receive much greater weight in political decisions than would be suggested by its share of employment or output. Similarly, certain industries may receive special treatment if the owners of capital are connected to the government. Protection reduces consumer welfare, since consumers are forced to pay more than the world price, but governments cannot credibly commit to withholding protection of the special sectors.3 In addition, protection may be in place because of historical reasons and can be politically difficult to remove because industry has adapted to it. Third, countries, especially developing countries, may rely on tariffs for a share of the tax revenue they need to fund general government expenditures. Border transactions are an easy way to collect revenue when income tax systems are weak. This motive tends to be more important in developing countries, where other forms of revenue collection are difficult. Reciprocal liberalization helps neutralize the first two forces described above: terms-of-trade motivations are neutralized, and joint welfare is higher because, with lower tariffs, consumption patterns are less distorted. Reciprocity in tariff cutting makes it easier to form a proliberalization coalition because the political strength of the domestic losses from tariff cutting can be balanced against the political strength of the exporters that gain from foreigners’ reciprocal tariff cutting. Moreover, once the agreement is in place, the reciprocity can help lock in the reform—can tie the government’s hands, so to speak—in a way that helps governments resist special-interest pressures for protection. Even if domestic consumers do not object to new protection, the export interests of the foreign trade partner will. The third reason for tariffs, revenue generation, is slightly different, as the government faces a loss of income with no offsetting added source of revenues if tariffs are reduced. Trade agreements with the World Trade Organization (WTO), or bilateral agreements with industrial countries, therefore often include provisions to help countries adjust to revenue loss. Both the WTO and PTAs allow countries to cooperate and commit to reducing trade barriers, but there is an important distinction between the two types of agreements. In particular, PTAs go against the principle of nondiscrimination that is at the heart of the multilateral system. The first article of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) concerns nondiscrimination, or most favored nation (MFN) treatment. MFN means that every time a country lowers a tariff, it has to offer the same treatment to all its trading partners. The purpose of this clause is to prevent trade diversion and the cumbersome tariff structure that would likely prevail in the absence of MFN. By offering preferences to specific countries, PTAs definitively violate MFN treatment. Yet they are allowed, in part, because the MFN clause creates a free-rider problem. MFN means that countries in the WTO must offer the same tariff to all members. But if only a subset of members agrees on significant tariff reduction, other members can “free ride”—they get expanded market access without new commitments. If all members participated equally in MFN tariff reduction, PTAs might not be needed. PTAs enable countries that want to pursue deeper trade liberalization to evade the free-rider problem. Snape (1993) discusses the history of GATT Article XXIV, which allows for an exception to nondiscrimination, and argues that this article is vital for maintaining the multilateral club because some members might opt out if it were not included. (In particular, the United Kingdom, which was the largest importer at the time, insisted on keeping its Commonwealth preferences.) Summers (1991) asserts that all types of liberalization, whether unilateral, bilateral, or multilateral, are very likely to be good and that regionalism gives governments a way to maintain progress on liberalization. This section has shown that reciprocal liberalization is usually necessary for removal of barriers to international trade. Although multilateral liberalization is preferable, regional liberalization is ubiquitous and cannot be PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 123 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization ignored. The key question is whether this advancement of regionalism is broadly beneficial or detrimental to global trade and welfare (see box 6.1). In the next section, we discuss the recent rise of regional liberalization and how, in theory, it may affect the multilateral trade system.4 Stumbling Blocks and Building Blocks From 1960 to the late 1980s, regionalism was a simple matter. It was represented by the European Economic Community (EEC), which encompassed a third of world trade in a highly effective customs union, and by a slew of PTAs among developing nations that covered a trivial fraction of world trade and in any case never operated effectively. The systemic implications of regionalism were simply not an issue. Regionalism became complicated in the late 1980s when Canada and Mexico changed their minds about regionalism (Krugman 1991b, 7).5 The United States had long been interested in regional preferential trade, but Canada and Mexico had resisted, fearing domination by their giant neighbor. In 1985, Canada proposed a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States that entered into force in 1989. In 1990, Mexico, too, proposed an FTA with the United States. This initiative evolved into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) at the insistence of Canada, which wished to safeguard its Auto Pact arrangement with the United States for tarifffree trade in automobiles and parts. The U.S.–Mexico initiative triggered a wave of Latin American requests for bilateral trade agreements with the United States and gave greater urgency to arrangements among Latin American Box 6.1. Is Bilateralism Bad? Paul Krugman, in a series of papers published in 1991, reframed the 1950s national welfare question as a globallevel question. Krugman (1991a) introduced a new approach by asking whether the spread of regionalism raises or lowers world welfare. This discussion spawned a decade-long literature and continues to influence research even today. The “is bilateralism bad?” literature—also known as multilateralism versus regionalism literature— looks distinctly odd from today’s perspective in that it tries to use simple theory to answer what is intrinsically a complicated empirical question. At the time, however, it was the best that economists could do; they had limited access to the necessary data and lacked the panel econometric techniques to exploit them. Moreover, spreading regionalism was at the time more of a threat than a reality, so there was little experience to support empirical tests. Baldwin (2009) offers a full discussion of the issue. 123 countries, most notably members of the Southern Cone Common Market (Mercosur, Mercado ComГєn del Sur).6 The rise of North American regionalism coincided with two other major developments in the world trade system. First, GATT negotiations lurched from crisis to crisis in the late 1980s and then seemed to die with the acrimonious collapse of the Uruguay Round’s “final” summit in December 1990. Second, European regionalism was reignited by the Single European Act and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Many respected thinkers looked at this temporal correlation and saw causality. They feared that the spread of regionalism might kill the world trade system. These fears are easy to understand. Two-thirds of world imports went to North America and Europe; 40 percent of this total was intrabloc trade that was soon to be covered by discriminatory liberalization schemes. Still more worrisome, North American and European countries were the stalwarts of the GATT system. If regionalism weakened their support of multilateralism, the GATT was indeed in deep trouble. Spreading regionalism had become much more than a small-think “should I join?” question. These fears promoted regionalism to a prominence on the world’s policy agenda that it had not enjoyed since the 1950s. The shift naturally attracted paradigm-setting efforts by the profession’s leading international economists. Krugman (1991b) is clearest in rejecting the relevance of the 1950s small-think approach, which focused on static welfare issues and delineating the outlines of a new line of inquiry—what we call big-think regionalism: In a fundamental sense, the issue of the desirability of free trade areas is a question of political economy rather than of economics proper. While one could argue against the formation of free trade areas purely on the grounds that they might produce trade diversion . . . the real objection is a political judgment: fear that regional deals will undermine the delicate balance of interests that supports the GATT. (Krugman 1991b, 14–15) Krugman’s framing of what he identified as the key issue—the impact of regionalism on support for the GATT system—did not catch on, however.7 The focus of this part of the discussion is on what we consider to be the central theoretical question: does regionalism help or hinder multilateralism? Ultimately, this question is also empirical, but given the relative paucity of experience with the regionalism-multilateralism interface (only one multilateral trade negotiation has been completed since 1991), convincing empirics is at an early stage, with some tantalizing results just beginning to emerge (see “Welfare Consequences of PTAs,” later in this PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 124 124 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund chapter). Moreover, given the complexity of the interlinkages, a clear theoretical understanding is a necessary condition for well-structured empirical work. Are Regionalism and Multilateralism Friends or Foes? Bhagwati, in The World Trading System at Risk (1991), does not focus on regionalism. In the first part of the book, “The GATT Architecture under Threat,” he lists regionalism as one of four main threats. Nevertheless, his writing has helped establish big-think regionalism as the new paradigm. In the first paragraph of his chapter on regionalism, he writes, “These regional alignments have led to fears of fragmentation of the world economy into trading blocs in antithesis to GATT-wide multilateral free trade. Does such regionalism truly constitute a threat to multilateralism?” (Bhagwati 1991, 58). Although he does not set out an analytical framework for answering the question, his writing influenced the intellectual paradigm for more than a decade. Theory requires explicit questions. Asking whether regionalism and multilateralism are friends or foes is not sufficient. Pure logic identifies three mutually compatible ways that regionalism and multilateralism could interact: • Regionalism could affect multilateralism. • Multilateralism could affect regionalism. • Both multilateralism and regionalism could be driven by third factors. The literature has looked at all three ways of framing the issue, but the first has dominated since Krugman (1991b, 1996) presented a simple analytical framework for posing the question. His explicit question was, How does an exogenous variation in regionalism (specifically, the formation of a new PTA) affect nations’ incentives to cut tariffs multilaterally? Although most of the literature has followed Krugman’s lead in asking how exogenous variations in regionalism affect multilateralism, authors have also discussed the specific effect of PTAs on multilateral trade negotiations (MTNs); the deeper forces driving PTAs and MTNs (Summers’ notion that all the “isms” are good); and the effect of multilateralism on regionalism. These are discussed below. Three Kinds of Stumbling Block Logic In its cleanest form, the stumbling block logic asserts that if the stumbling block PTAs were forbidden, global free trade would be achieved, but that since they are permitted, global free trade becomes impossible. Weaker forms of this thesis are put forward in the help-or-hinder literature (for example, PTAs may slow the achievement of global free trade), but the desire for clarity has led the profession to focus on the strong form. In our opinion, only three forms of stumbling block logic are currently relevant to real-world policy analysis: the preference-erosion (exploitation), goodies-bag, and cherry-picking variants. (Many more will undoubtedly be illuminated in coming years.) For simplicity’s sake, these possibilities are demonstrated under the naГЇve but transparent assumption that national governments choose tariffs to maximize national welfare. Preference erosion, or exploitation. Starting from a world in which all nations have MFN tariffs, the question is whether some group of nations can raise its collective welfare above the free trade level by forming a trade bloc and thus exploiting other nations. If the answer is “yes,” that bloc is a stumbling block on the road to multilateral free trade because the members would veto global free trade as undermining their exploitation of third nations. In trade models, the answer is almost always “yes,” but the answer may depend on the level of MFN tariffs when the bloc is formed.8 Given Smith’s certitude (briefly, that all parties to a preferential trade arrangement benefit) and Haberler’s spillover (postulating that third nations must lose from such an arrangement), some combination of nations is bound to be better able to exploit third nations by acting as a bloc. This is almost trivially true if the bloc can violate its WTO tariff bindings by raising external tariffs. After all, the bloc as a whole has more buying power than its constituents do individually, so it can better exploit foreigners. Less obvious, but equally true, is that stumbling blocks can be found even when external tariffs are maintained (as has been the case for all the major postwar PTAs). Consider the simple model presented in chapter 3 of this volume, with three symmetrical countries (Home, Partner, and Rest of the World, or RoW) and three goods. Home imports Good 1 and exports Good 2 to Partner; Partner imports Good 2 and exports Good 1 to Home; and Rest of the World exports Goods 1 and 2 to Home and Partner, respectively, and imports Good 3 from both (see figure 3.1, in ch. 3). The first welfare theorem tells us that global free trade is efficiency enhancing (a move to the first best), and symmetry ensures that each nation receives an equal slice of the gains. This conclusion, however, can be reversed when we start from the situation in which Home and Partner have formed a PTA by eliminating tariffs among them. Taking the PTA as the base case, a move to global free trade eliminates the preference margin (P' – PFT) that Home exporters PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 125 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization Figure 6.1. Net Welfare Effects, Preferential Trade Agreement to Global Free Trade border price P' PFT Figure 6.2. Relationship between MFN Tariffs and Home Welfare internal price C2' XS 125 home welfare P A' global free trade 0.60 C1' C1' D' 0.59 B' P–T P' – T MD 0.58 0.57 stumbling block tariffs exports XR' imports 0.56 MFN PTA Source: Author’s elaboration. 0 enjoyed in Partner, thereby leading to a terms-of-trade loss of area C1' and a trade-volume loss of C2' (figure 6.1, lefthand panel). On the import side, because of lower internal prices, from P' to PFT, global free trade would win Home an additional trade volume gain of area A', a terms-of-trade improvement with respect to Partner exporters of area C1', and a terms-of-trade loss on imports from RoW, shown as area B' (right-hand panel). Global free trade would also improve Home exporters’ market access to RoW, and this would boost Home welfare by area D'. Overall, the net welfare change of moving from the PTA to global free trade is – C2' – B' + D' + A'; the sign of this is ambiguous. It is straightforward to show that, in a simple model with linear demand, a low MFN tariff and a PTA with zero internal tariffs generate gains for the trade partners that exceed those from free trade. (This is shown in figure 3.2, in ch. 3; see Baldwin 2009, box 4, for further details of the model.) Figure 6.2 presents the Home welfare levels for different values of the MFN tariff. For initial MFN tariff levels that are sufficiently low, we see that Home’s welfare is higher with the PTA than it is with global free trade, even though Home would have agreed to global free trade starting from the initial situation without the PTA. (The line marked MFN is completely below the line marked “global free trade,” but the PTA line is above the global free trade line for sufficiently low tariffs.) Intuitively, the PTA allows Home to exploit RoW both on the import side (by pushing down the price it pays RoW exporters of Good 1) and on the export side (by raising the price in Partner at the expense of RoW exporters of Good 2). The move to global free trade undoes these two 0.05 0.10 0.15 tariff (T) 0.20 0.25 MFN tariff (MFN T) Source: Author’s elaboration. Note: Home welfare is plotted against the most favored nation (MFN) tariff for three trade regimes: MFN (all nations impose the same MFN tariff T on all goods); PTA (Home and Partner form a preferential trade agreement, PTA); and global free trade, which is the MFN regime with T = 0. The parameters chosen are a = 1, b = 1/2; the qualitative results are unaltered for other choices of parameters. Note that T = 1/4 is the prohibitive tariff with a = 1, b = 1/2. In ad valorem terms, the Viner crossing occurs at a tariff of about 27 percent of the free trade price, and the ad valorem tariff threshold for a stumbling block occurs at about 9 percent; the prohibitive tariff is about 42 percent for these parameter values. forms of exploitation, but in exchange, it provides better access to the RoW market and more liberalization in Home’s import market. When the initial tariff T is low, the market access and home liberalization gains are modest, and so the net effect is negative. In other words, the basic logic of the stumbling block result turns on the way that a PTA allows the PTA partners to exploit excluded nations. The model presented here is very special, but the heart and soul of the stumbling block effect—the exploitation of excluded nations—is a general result, and one that is surely an important consideration in the real world. The opposition of small developing nations—especially those that benefit from European Union (EU) unilateral preferences—to agricultural liberalization in the WTO Doha negotiations is a classic example of the preferenceerosion stumbling block. Had the EU not unilaterally granted preferences to these nations, they would probably have been pushing for opening of the EU market in sugar and other goods. Goodies bag. The goodies-bag version follows closely the fundamental economic logic of the preference-erosion stumbling block.9 Briefly, the rents corresponding to PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 126 126 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund Smith’s certitude can be thought of as a set of “goodies” that can be used by one or both PTA parties to buy noneconomic benefits from its partners. Because the size of noneconomic benefits that can be “purchased” is linked to the richness of the goodies bag—that is, the margin of preferences—PTA members have an extra incentive to maintain high margins of preference by avoiding multilateral liberalization. The goodies-bag logic, however, extends to a far greater range of issues than the tariffs that are the focus of the preference-erosion stumbling block. In the case of a PTA between very large and very small nations—a case that is extremely common in the new century (e.g., the United States and Costa Rica; Japan and Singapore)—the large country’s interest in the PTA can hardly be thought to be preferential market access. The EU, for example, grants extensive preferences to its members’ former colonies by using the justification of international solidarity. In other words, the economic gains to the EU’s partners count as a plus inside the EU because they advance one of the EU’s noneconomic objectives— fostering development. Similarly, but more explicitly, the United States justifies many of its PTAs with small, poor nations on the basis of noneconomic objectives, typically, antidrug or antiterrorism policies. The earlier discussion illustrated how the desire to safeguard rents created by a PTA could make a nation reject global free trade when it would have embraced MFN free trade without the PTA. The goodies-bag stumbling block logic amplifies this mechanism by making both nations interested in each other’s export rents—the area corresponding to C1' in figure 6.1, with the link operating through the pursuit of noneconomic (in the narrow sense) objectives. Cherry picking. An entirely distinct mechanism is at work in the cherry-picking stumbling block.10 Assume that the trading environment is marked by both intraindustry trade in differentiated products and interindustry trade. In this world, trade liberalization will produce gains from trade because of the variety effect in the differentiated product sectors (as in Helpman-Krugman models) and because of comparative advantage effects. The comparative advantage gains, however, come bundled with politically difficult effects on domestic factor prices, which will be lower (e.g., lower wages).11 Now suppose that two large nations have similar factor endowments. If they form a trade bloc, they will win a large share of the variety gains that would come with global free trade, and because of their similarity, they will experience little pain from lower factor prices. Taking the trade bloc as the base case, the bloc members may find a move to global free trade unattractive. It would entail a good deal of pain in terms of factor prices and only a modest amount of additional variety or comparative advantage gains. Depending on parameters, especially the political power of the sufferers, the gains may not be sufficient to make global free trade attractive to the bloc members. Building Block Logic Whereas many trade policy scholars, including Krugman (1991b) and Bhagwati (1991), worried that regionalism was a stumbling block to global free trade, others, such as Summers (1991) and Bergsten (1991), viewed regionalism as a largely benign or even constructive force in the world trade system. Here, we consider the economic logic of the assertion that PTAs can foster multilateral liberalization. There are four main arguments in the literature. We begin with the one that permeates the rationales used by countries that simultaneously pursue regional and multilateral liberalization: the notion that preferential liberalization creates a political-economy momentum that makes multilateral liberalization easier (and vice versa). Juggernaut. According to the juggernaut building block logic, liberalization begets liberalization. The logic comes in two parts that are most easily explained in the context of multilateral liberalization. When the GATT began in 1947, import duties were high worldwide, since they had been set without international coordination during the tariff wars named for the U.S. Smoot-Hawley Act. The tariffs balanced the supply of and demand for protection in the “political market” of each nation separately. The main demandeurs of import protection were import-competing firms and the workers they employed. Government was the supplier of protection, but concern for the country’s general economic well-being meant that the government would set the protection level below what was lobbied for by special interests (the supply of protection being not perfectly elastic). Starting from this situation of uncoordinated tariff setting, announcement of an MTN based on the principle of reciprocity alters the array of political forces inside each participating nation. The central point is reciprocity, which converts each nation’s exporters from bystanders in the tariff debate to antiprotectionists. For exporters, lobbying against domestic tariffs becomes a means of lowering foreign tariffs. Because the MTN rearranges the political-economy forces inside each nation, all governments find it politically optimal to choose tariff levels that are lower than the unilaterally optimal tariffs.12 This is the first part of the juggernaut theory.13 The logic is not new. PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 127 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization Informed observers have long known that the GATT’s reciprocal MTNs mostly had to do with helping nations internalize a political-economy externality inside their own polities, making it easier for national politicians to put together a national coalition in support of freer trade. Writers such as Robert Baldwin (1970, 1985) and Destler (1986) are explicit on this point, but historical accounts of the Cobden-Chevalier Treaties show that the use of external trade deals to realign domestic political forces was very much in the minds of nineteenth-century thinkers (Irwin 1996, 96). Even Krugman writes that “the process of multilateral negotiation . . . sets each country’s exporting interests as a counterweight to import-competing interests; as trade negotiators bargain for access to each others’ markets, they move toward free trade despite their disregard for the gains from trade as economists understand them” (Krugman 1991b, 17). The second part of the juggernaut logic concerns the effects of the tariff cuts on openness. The cuts make all nations more open: export sectors expand with the foreign tariff cuts, and import-competing sectors contract with domestic tariff cuts. Assuming that political influence is linked to industry size, this economic relandscaping strengthens proliberalization forces and weakens antiliberalization forces in all nations—although, of course, such industrial restructuring takes years. In other words, the initial reciprocal tariff cuts start a liberalization juggernaut rolling. Because of the economic relandscaping that occurs during the phase-in of the initial tariff cuts, all governments find that their politically optimal tariff in the next MTN is below the levels that they found politically optimal during the previous MTN. These fresh tariff cuts continue the relandscaping, and the juggernaut continues to roll forward. Once the liberalization juggernaut starts rolling, it crushes all tariffs in its path.14 To the extent that regionalism can start the juggernaut rolling, PTAs can serve as building blocks.15 The precise mechanism is a simple extension of the juggernaut logic. PTAs reconfigure members’ economies, making export sectors larger and import-competing sectors smaller. Thus, the PTA can alter the member governments’ stance toward MFNs, making it politically optimal to cut MFN tariffs to levels that would not have been politically optimal without the PTA. Of course, if a PTA results in higher external tariffs (as in the case of the EU’s agriculture tariffs), then it can start the juggernaut rolling backward. The basic idea is presented in figure 6.3. The two curves, FE (free entry) and GFOC (government first-order condition), show how the size of the import-competing sector depends on the tariff (free entry) and how that tariff depends on the size of the import-competing sector (n, for 127 Figure 6.3. Juggernaut Logic tariff (T ) FE Eo To GFOCunil GFOCMFN Efinal size of importcompeting sector, n Source: Author’s elaboration of figure 4 from Baldwin 2006. Note: FE, free entry; GFOC, government first-order condition; MFN, most favored nation. number of firms), via politics. The politically optimal tariff choice, which takes as given the size of the importcompeting sector, is plotted as GFOCunil, the solution to the government’s first-order condition without MTN. The politically optimal tariff rises with n because the larger the import-competing sector, the higher the political benefit from a marginal increase in the tariff. The free entry curve, FE, relates the equilibrium number of firms to the tariff. As the tariff rises, more firms find it optimal to enter the market. These two relationships assume that the government and firms are shortsighted and that the government chooses T, taking n as given, while firms choose n, taking T as given. Note that the figure only captures the size of anti-trade forces; the size of the pro-trade export sector is suppressed to avoid the need for a three-dimensional diagram. To see the two steps of the juggernaut effect, note that announcement of the MTN shifts the GFOC curve to GFOCMTN. This curve is lower because the government finds it politically optimal to set a lower tariff for any given level of n when domestic protection is linked to foreign protection via reciprocity. As drawn, the new long-run equilibrium Efinal entails free trade, but since entry and exit occur slowly, the tariff and the state of the import-competing industry do not jump to Efinal. The figure illustrates one possible adjustment path. Each MTN results in an instantaneous drop in the tariff, but slow entry and exit mean sluggish movement of the state variable, as indicated by the horizontal arrows. The juggernaut effect acts as a building block if the PTA reduces the importance of import-competing industry in governments’ objective functions. In many models, a PTA between Home and Partner does reduce the size of the PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 128 128 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund Home import-competing sector, and then PTAs would be building blocks on the road to global free trade. The FE curve in figure 6.3 was drawn for symmetric MFN tariffs. When the PTA is signed, the FE curve rotates inward, as shown in figure 6.4, because the additional competition from Partner producers lowers the Home price facing import-competing firms, and some of them exit. Consequently, the GFOC under reciprocal trade will yield a lower MFN tariff after a PTA (point E2) than before (point E1). Of course, if the PTA somehow increases protection of the Home import-competing sector, the effect is reversed, and the PTA acts as a stumbling block.16 Frankel and Wei momentum. Frankel and Wei (1998) illustrate another juggernaut-like mechanism. In their model, imperfect information makes workers uncertain as to whether they will win or lose from global free trade. Since a PTA is an intermediate form of liberalization, the authors show that a PTA could be politically feasible even when global free trade would not be. After the PTA is signed, the nation’s true comparative advantage is revealed, and workers now know whether they will win or lose from free trade. If the parameters are chosen carefully, the certainty resolution may mean that global free trade is politically feasible only after the PTA. Thus, the PTA is a building block, and since it operates by altering the political-economy landscape, it can be thought of as a momentum-generating mechanism. The juggernaut logic exploits the fact that nations do have preferences about trade arrangements, in the way that individual consumers have preferences about consumption Figure 6.4. Juggernaut Building Block Logic tariff (T ) FE (with PTA) FE Eo To E1 GFOCunil GFOCMFN E2 size of importcompeting sector, n Source: Author’s elaboration of figure 4 from Baldwin 2006. Note: FE, free entry; GFOC, government first-order condition; PTA, preferential trade agreement. bundles. The nature of the proposed trade deal can affect a nation’s ranking of choices (unilateral versus reciprocal, for example). These rankings, unlike the rankings of a standard consumer, are path dependent because historical liberalization can affect the current political strength of various protrade and anti-trade special interest groups. A number of building block arguments assume, however, that nations, like consumers, have exogenous preferences about outcomes. We next consider the easiest of these arguments, which assumes a representative consumer and a government that acts to maximize the individual’s well-being. Kemp-Wan theorem. The assertion that trade blocs may be building blocks in a static world is as easy and as general as the assertion that they may be stumbling blocks. Starting from a world in which all nations have MFN tariffs, the question is: can some group of nations always raise its collective welfare by forming a trade bloc? If the answer is “yes,” then a piecemeal enlargement of the bloc will raise bloc members’ well-being monotonically. Bloc members attain the highest welfare when all nations are part of the bloc. In this world, the formation of a single bloc should trigger a domino effect that leads to worldwide free trade. As seen in chapter 3, the Kemp-Wan theorem tells us that the answer to the above question is always “yes” when nations have access to international lump-sum transfers (Kemp-Wan 1976) or to a complete set of commodity taxes and subsidies (Dixit-Norman 1980). Kemp and Wan (1976), in probably the first formal contribution to the building block–stumbling block discussion, make exactly this point. (See Aghion, AntrГ s, and Helpman 2007 for an elaboration of the Kemp-Wan argument that uses modern cooperative game theory concepts.)17 Although the Kemp-Wan building block logic is flawless, it falls down in the face of the real-world problem that nations do not have access to massive lump-sum transfers. Indeed, the assumption that such international transfers are a realistic possibility basically assumes away most of the core difficulties facing the international trade system (and international relations more broadly). Without international transfers, the logic of preference-erosion stumbling blocks and cherry-picking stumbling blocks suggests that in many blocs, some members would eventually veto some enlargements. Veto avoidance. The preference-erosion stumbling block logic discussed above rests on the fact that bloc members can veto the move to global free trade. The veto-avoidance building block logic points out that, although bloc members can veto multilateral trade liberalization, they cannot veto further PTAs that may eventually eliminate all tariffs globally. The explosion in the number of PTAs among small nations witnessed in the new century may very well PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 129 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization be attributable to a combination of the juggernaut effect and veto-avoidance logic.18 We start by considering the development of an extremely common form of regionalism, hub-and-spoke PTAs. Here, one partner (e.g., the United States, the EU, or India) has a network of radial bilateral PTAs with some of its trading partners, but these trading partners do not have PTAs with each other. Simplicity dictates our continued use of the symmetric framework shown in figure 3.2 in chapter 3, so we arbitrarily bestow hub status on Home. Roughly speaking, Home found the bilateral PTA with Partner attractive because the improved market access for Home exporters in Partner’s market more than outweighed the potential welfare losses from trade diversion in Home’s import market. This suggests that Home might also find a second bilateral PTA with RoW to be welfare enhancing.19 As it turns out, in the PTA diagram framework, Home always gains from signing a second PTA with RoW. Intuitively, the point is that Home gains the same preferential market access as it did from the first PTA, and it undoes the potentially harmful trade diversion by fully liberalizing its import market. To see this in more detail, we reinterpret figure 6.1. On the export side, Home’s second PTA wins its preferential access to RoW’s market without giving up its preferences in Partner; this has a net welfare value of areas D' + C1' + C2' in the left-hand panel.20 On the import side, the second PTA brings the price in Home’s market for Good 1 to the global free trade level, PFT. The welfare impact of this is the positive trade volume effect area A' plus the conflicting terms-of-trade effects, areas –B' and + C1'. (See Baldwin 2009, box 5, for a mathematical proof.) Would RoW accept Home’s offer of a second PTA? As it turns out, RoW gains from such a PTA as long as T is not too high (see Baldwin 2009 for details). That is, the huband-spoke situation is better for RoW than the initially disadvantaged position, when it was excluded from the Home-Partner PTA. On the export side, a PTA with Home would improve RoW’s market access a great deal (its export price would rise from the depressed level of P'– T to the free trade price, PFT). The liberalization on the import side would have the usual positive trade volume effect and conflicting terms-of-trade effects, identical to those experienced by Home in its first PTA. Plainly, Partner will be harmed by the formation of the hub-and-spoke system around Home; its preferences in Home are eroded, and it receives nothing in compensation. Partner would thus like to veto Home’s second PTA, but except in extraordinary circumstances, third nations cannot veto PTAs. The main exception is customs unions, but functioning customs unions are quite rare in the modern 129 world. Customs unions require supranational decisionmaking capacity to keep all external tariffs in line in the face of changes in antidumping duties; special unilateral preferences to third nations, such as the generalized system of preferences; and tariff changes in multilateral trade talks. The groups of nations that manage such coordination are of just two types: the EU, and nations involved in superhegemon relations (e.g., France and Monaco; Switzerland and Liechtenstein; and the South African Customs Union). Given that the real world is covered with hub-and-spoke trade arrangements, we assume henceforth that Partner has no veto over Home’s PTA policy, and the hub-and-spoke system is indeed set up. The story, however, is not finished. As it turns out, the two spokes may find a spoke-spoke PTA to be advantageous, and this would achieve global duty-free trade. (Trade, however, would not necessarily be free because of the exclusion of various sensitive sectors, rules of origin, and cumulation.) The hub-and-spoke PTA puts Home in an enviable position, giving it the benefits of free trade for its imports and preferential market access for all of its exporters. In this sense, hub-and-spoke bilateralism might be thought of as another example of the preference-erosion stumbling block logic: Home would veto WTO talks aimed at achieving global free trade. This simple world, however, can attain global duty-free trade without multilateral talks—a PTA between Partner and RoW would do the job. So, would Partner and RoW be interested in a PTA? Taking hub-and-spoke bilateralism as the point of departure, the spokes (in this case, Partner and RoW) clearly have a very different view of global free trade than does the hub. A move to global free trade would do nothing to erode Partner’s preferences in Home, since those were already eroded by Home’s second PTA. For Partner, the shift to the global free trade regime would involve a standard exchange of market access with RoW; Partner would see its export price to RoW rise from P' – T to PFT for Good 3, and RoW would see a symmetric border price rise for its exports of Good 2 to Partner (see figure 3.2) The attendant liberalization of the two nations’ import markets would have the usual conflicting trade volume and terms-of-trade effects, but overall, the two nations could find the exchange to be welfare enhancing. In fact, Partner and RoW would always prefer global free trade to the huband-spoke situation. This is certainly not to be taken as a general result. It does, however, illustrate how regionalism could be a building block in a world in which overall free trade would be in the interest of all nations, but achievement of the goal is blocked by nations that fear erosion of their preferences. PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 130 130 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund Related Logics: Induced Liberalization and Protection Before ending this review of the helps-or-hinders literature, it should be useful to cover two economic mechanisms that link PTAs and MFN tariffs without formally making the connection with multilateral trade talks. Both consider the impact of PTAs on a nation’s MFN stance in the absence of a new MTN. The first mechanism links PTAs to unilateral MFN liberalization; the second looks at how a PTA can lower or raise a nation’s effective MFN tariff rate. Unilateral liberalization. The building block logics examined earlier directly address the issue of whether PTAs help or hinder the attainment of global free trade. Here, we look at a related but logically distinct question: what is the impact of a PTA on the tariffs a nation would find unilaterally optimal to impose on third nations? Intuitively, the question is whether preferential tariffs are complements to or substitutes for MFN tariffs.21 The easiest way to organize the various mechanisms is to start from the Meade (1955) formula for the welfare impact of any trade policy change in a Walrasian economy: Net home welfare effect = (p – p*)dM – (M)dp* (6.1) where p and p* are the vectors of internal and border prices (and p – p* = T, the tariff), M is the vector of bilateral imports (exports are negative imports), and dM and dp* are the vectors of changes in bilateral trade volumes and border prices, respectively. A nation choosing its bilateral tariffs optimally would view this formula as a first-order condition and set it to zero to find its optimal tariff. The optimal bilateral tariffs are: пЈ« dp* пЈ¶ Tod = M od пЈ¬ пЈ· пЈ dM пЈёod (6.2) where o indicates the origin nation and d the destination nation (the nation choosing the tariffs). In general, anything can happen to Tod when the nation signs a free trade agreement, because, according to the Slutsky equation, the direct and cross-good income and substitution effects of the PTA-induced price changes could raise or lower the righthand side of the equation (6.2). Real income is expanded because the price of the preferential good fell, raising demand and hence the optimal external tariff. However, there is also substitution toward the low-cost preferential good, reducing demand for other foreign goods and pushing the optimal external tariff down. Attempts to resolve the inherent ambiguity have led to the emphasis on several economic mechanisms in the literature. Preferential and MFN tariffs as complements. If the PTAinduced price changes have little impact on the equilibrium slopes of the third-nation import supply curves, Tod is likely to fall because PTAs typically reduce PTA members’ trade with third nations (Harberler’s spillover); that is, Mod is likely to fall. For example, in the simple PTA diagram model presented in figure 3.2 in ch. 3, the import supply curves are linear, and so dp*/dM does not change with preferential liberalization. However, Haberler’s spillover effect lowers third-nation trade (Mod), and so Home’s optimal tariff on RoW exports falls. Another mechanism that yields complementarity turns on the general principle that taxes become more distortionary when the variance of rates across products increases. This is termed the uniform tax rate principle, and it is a feature of many economic models, especially when administrative and enforcement considerations are taken into account. It explains why most nations impose fairly even indirect tax rates across products. Since the PTA automatically makes the import tax structure more uneven, there is some presumption that the PTA makes the third-nation tariffs more distortionary. In models where this is true, nations are likely to lower third-nation tariffs when they reoptimize their trade tax structures. That is, PTAs encourage nations to reduce applied MFN tariffs. Preferential and MFN tariffs as substitutes. The most obvious mechanism that suggests the substitutes result (i.e., nations find it optimal to raise third-nation tariffs after having signed a PTA) concerns the market power of the new bloc. If the PTA allows PTA members to better coordinate their third-country tariffs, the members are likely to raise external tariffs because they will have more purchasing power than before. This effect is only likely to be relevant in customs unions, where countries set tariffs jointly. Even so, two fairly unrealistic assumptions are required: that the governments share sufficiently similar objective functions, and that their external tariffs are not subject to WTO bindings (or that they are willing to violate their WTO commitments). Since most of the effective PTAs are among developed countries whose tariffs are almost universally bound at near-zero levels (apart from a few low-volume items) and since such countries rarely violate their WTO bindings, this mechanism is probably of little real-world relevance except for a few commodities (agriculture before the Uruguay Round) and a few low-trade-volume PTAs among developing countries. Imported MFN liberalization and protection. A closely related line of reasoning considers the automatic impact of PTAs on the external protection of PTA members, when members impose different tariffs on third countries. Under some circumstances, the PTA effectively lowers the higher MFN tariff (imported MFN liberalization); in other circumstances, the PTA effectively raises the lower MFN tariff (imported MFN protection).22 PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 131 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization The feasibility of this outcome is established by noting that the U.S. supply at Po is more than sufficient to cover the entire Mexican import demand (point 2 is to the right of point 1). Note that there is a secondary effect on world prices as the United States expands its imports. The new price is at the intersection of the dotted MD curve and the XSRoW curve. For simplicity’s sake, this second-order impact is not shown in the two leftmost panels. If one combines this imported MFN liberalization with the juggernaut logic, the PTA can eliminate all the firms in Mexico that would otherwise have opposed MFN liberalization. That is, Mexican industry has no interest in lobbying for the maintenance of high Mexican MFN tariffs, which provide no protection to Mexican industry. In the case at hand, the Mexican government signed a vast array of PTAs to exchange its now politically useless MFN tariffs against preferential access for its exporters. Since developed countries (the North) tend to have much lower MFN tariffs on most manufactured goods than developing countries (the South), the mechanism suggests that an important implication of North-South PTAs for the world trading system is their potential to lower the southern country’s resistance to further liberalization. Given that most of the South does not participate in MTN tariff-cutting exercises on the basis of reciprocity, the North-South PTAs are one of the few ways of triggering juggernaut effects in developing countries. Rules of origin and imported MFN protection. The opposite result, in which a PTA imports MFN protection to a country with low MFN tariffs, can occur when highly restrictive rules of origin are imposed. The argument can be illustrated with reference to NAFTA. Since the first U.S. foray into regionalism, the 1965 U.S.–Canada Auto Pact, U.S. and Canadian rules of origin on autos have been A good example of imported MFN liberalization can be found in North-South PTAs. The concept can be explained intuitively with reference to Mexico’s experience. In 1994, Mexico, along with Canada and the United States, formed NAFTA, which phased in tariff cuts over 10 to 15 years. Mexican MFN tariffs were (and still are) much higher than U.S. and Canadian MFN tariffs, but as NAFTA brought Mexican prices down to the U.S. internal level, domestic prices in Mexico came to resemble those that Mexico would have observed if it had lowered its MFN tariffs to U.S. levels. To put it differently, the high Mexican MFN tariffs became irrelevant because the same goods could be purchased from the United States duty-free, and the U.S. internal price was linked to the world price via its low MFN tariff (leaving aside the small sectors still protected by high U.S. MFN tariffs, such as clothing, textiles, and footwear). In this sense, Mexico ended up “importing” the low U.S. MFN tariffs.23 The argument can be illustrated more precisely by using figure 6.5, which shows import demand by the United States (left-hand panel), Mexico (middle panel), and the world market for the good under consideration (right-hand panel). The U.S. total supply curve is shown in Mexico’s panel, for reasons that will become clear. The United States initially imposes a zero tariff on imports from the rest of the world, whereas Mexico imposes a tariff of TMX on imports from both the United States and the rest of the world. When Mexico eliminates duties on U.S. imports, U.S.-made goods can enter Mexico duty-free. Since the Mexican internal price is initially above the U.S. internal price, U.S. firms sell to the Mexican market and, in doing so, drive down Mexico’s internal price to the U.S. internal price—which, of course, is just the world price. U.S. production entirely displaces Mexican imports from the rest of the world, and the Mexican MFN tariff becomes irrelevant. Figure 6.5. Imported MFN Liberalization Partner Home Mexican price U.S. price RoW border price XSRoW Po + TMX SUS 1 Po 2 Po MDUS MDUS+MX MDMX imports Source: Authors’ elaboration. MoMX 131 imports imports PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 132 132 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund highly restrictive. One of Canada’s motives in pushing for the trilateralization of the U.S.–Mexico free trade agreement was to extend its restrictive rules of origin to Mexico and thereby avoid the undermining of the Auto Pact. The rules of origin forced Mexican-based car producers to import parts and components from the United States or Canada instead of from third countries. As before, NAFTA equalized U.S. and Mexican internal prices, but this meant that the Mexican prices were linked to the world prices via the higher MFN tariffs in Mexico’s partners. In this way, “imported MFN protection” occurred. NAFTA, with its rules of origin, had effects that mimicked a rise in the Mexican MFN tariffs to U.S. and Canadian levels. Although the distortionary impact of rules of origin is limited by the level of the MFN tariff, the all-or-nothing feature of rules of origin for final goods can lead to large effective rates of protection. For example, if a US$20,000 NAFTA-origin automobile pays zero tariff and the same non-NAFTA auto would pay 5 percent, a rule of origin stipulating that a particular component must be made within NAFTA could make it economical to pay up to US$1,000 more for the local versus the imported component. Although the distortion in the final good market is limited to 5 percent, the distortion in the component market can be much larger. (This distortion represents the traditional logic of effective rate of protection.) Bargaining-Model Stumbling Block–Building Block Logic The stumbling block–building block mechanisms discussed earlier resonate strongly with real-world considerations because they take advantage of the simple institutional features of real-world tariff cutting in PTAs and MTNs. This, however, is not how big-think regionalism started reasoning about the issue (Krugman 1991b, 1996).24 When Krugman wondered how regionalism would affect the GATT, the tool he grabbed for was simple bargaining-game theory, with two countries that are considering setting tariffs cooperatively (under GATT), or noncooperatively (Nash tariffs). As figure 6.6 shows, both countries prefer the cooperative outcome. Krugman observes, “Trade bargaining . . . is characterised by a Prisoners’ Dilemma. This Dilemma arises in part from the terms of trade effect of conventional optimal tariff analysis, but also (and presumably in practice mostly) from the effect of each country’s tariff on the other country’s producer interests” (Krugman 1996, 72). He goes on to invoke all the usual theorems of repeated games to think about the building block–stumbling block issue and concludes, “Trade liberalisation must be supported by the belief of countries that if they cheat they will lose from the subsequent collapse Figure 6.6. An Economic Theory of the GATT nation 2’s tariff, t2 Nash tariffs t2* GATT tariffs efficient bargaining curve tariffs t1* nation 1’s tariff, t1 Source: Krugman 1991a. of the cooperative outcome” (Krugman 1996, 72).25 The crux of his analysis is to examine the impact that an exogenously formed PTA has on the costs and benefits of cheating. Much of Krugman’s reasoning is informal, so it is worth spelling it out explicitly. The whole analysis turns on three equilibrium welfare levels: • WGATT is the level of a nation’s welfare with global cooperation (GATT tariffs) • WNash is national welfare under noncooperative tariffs • Wcheat reflects the nation’s welfare when its government “cheats”—that is, chooses a tariff to maximize its own welfare when the foreign government embraces its GATT tariffs. There are two logical steps in the approach. The first step consists of the obvious point that, from a global perspective, tariffs are worse than a zero-sum game. Therefore, some form of cooperation could be Pareto improving, yet nations have an incentive to cheat. Formally, this is a prisoners’ dilemma, and it arises when Wcheat > WGATT > WNash. The second step involves a dynamic game that models the circumstances under which cooperation is sustained. As Krugman notes, cooperation is self-enforcing when the gains from cheating are more than offset by the losses from the (infinite) punishment. Taking d as the discount factor, the present value of cooperating forever is WGATT/(1 – d ). If cooperation is to be sustained, its value must exceed the one-period gain from cheating, Wcheat, plus the present value of the infinite sequence of the Nash outcomes that are felt in the next period, after the foreigners realize that cheating has occurred, d WNash/(1 – d ). PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 133 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization Clearing the (1 – d ) terms, the condition for self-sustaining global free trade is: WGATT > (1 – d )Wcheat + d WNash In words, each nation compares the value of welfare under cooperation with a weighted average of the cheating outcome and the Nash outcome. The contribution of this approach comes in considering how a PTA changes the three levels, Wcheat, WGATT, and WNash. Krugman (1996) asks whether the formation of a trade bloc among nations makes them more or less able or willing to cooperate. His answer is that it can cut either way. Krugman’s core insight—one that has been followed up in a dozen subsequent articles—is that PTAs typically act to reduce their members’ trade with the rest of the world and so reduce both the cost and the benefit of cheating. Since these work in opposite directions, some bargainapproach papers find that PTAs are building blocks (i.e., they make cooperation more likely), whereas others find they are stumbling blocks. This approach works well for explaining strategic interactions among private agents, but it may be less useful for explaining trade negotiations among large countries. In particular, it requires two assumptions: that the cheating period is long enough to make it tempting, and that punishment can be usefully modeled as consisting only of tariff changes. Since tariff changes are immediately observable, the first assumption is problematic unless partner countries are very slow to respond, which may well reflect policy in small developing countries. Punishment is likely to include more than just tariffs; it may affect external development aid, treatment of expatriates, migration, military aid, political support in the international arena, participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and other concerns. With a shorter period of deviation and more tools of punishment available, as is the case for large developed countries, it is therefore likely that all welfareimproving agreements are enforceable. Thus, the effect of PTAs on the cost and benefit of deviating from cooperation is unlikely to have a first-order impact on multilateral cooperation when the major countries are involved. This type of model may help explain why some agreements among developing countries are never implemented and why some do not survive when external conditions change. Other Links from PTAs to MTNs A number of points made in the literature do not fit neatly into the stumbling block–building block framework as we have delineated it. One line of reasoning views a nation’s MFN tariffs, or its stance favoring or against multilateral 133 cooperation, as depending on the strength of various domestic special interest groups. The question here, in the big-think framework, is whether a PTA weakens or strengthens pro-trade and anti-trade interest groups. At one end, Winters (1993) argues that regionalism (e.g., in the EU, on agriculture) strengthened the hand of protectionists, since it worsened Olsen’s asymmetry (which holds that winners from protection are few in number and are easy to organize, whereas losers are dispersed, numerous, and difficult to organize politically). Winters terms this the “restaurant bill” problem. Just as diners at a table where the bill will be split equally tend to order too much, the EU tended to grant too much protection to farmers. At the other end, Richardson (1994) and Panagariya and Findlay (1994) argue that a PTA tends to dilute the influence of special interest groups via various mechanisms. Another important line of thinking asserts that the formation of PTAs creates forces that induce nations to begin or complete multilateral trade talks. For example, Lawrence (1991), WTO (1995), and Sapir (1996) all argue that the threat of regionalism was a critical element in inducing GATT members to initiate the Uruguay Round and to accept the final Uruguay Round agreement. Bergsten (1996) dubs this effect “competitive liberalization” and asserts that regionalism fosters multilateralism, and vice versa. Formalizing regional agreements as a force for competitive liberalization, Saggi and Yildiz (2008) study the role of PTAs in multilateral liberalization in the presence of a nondiscrimination constraint, such as the MFN rule in the WTO. They show that if PTAs are not permitted, a country with special interests aligned against free trade may oppose a multilateral free trade agreement because it can ride for free on the liberalization efforts of others. Nondiscrimination means that when any small group of countries liberalizes, all WTO members benefit from lower tariffs on their exports. The threat of PTAs can reverse that situation by offering the liberalizing countries a way to stop the outsider from free riding. In this model, competition to the multilateral system in the form of PTAs can make multilateral free trade feasible when it would not be feasible in the absence of that competition. A somewhat related idea, which has not been formalized, is that PTAs are a testing ground for the GATT/WTO (Bergsten 1996; Lawrence 1996). The prime example here is the EU, which dealt with deeper-than-tariff-cutting liberalization for decades before the issues arrived on the GATT agenda in the Tokyo and Uruguay Rounds. (See Ludema 1996 for a partial formalization of this idea.) Another line of thinking suggests that PTAs can provide commitments that boost the credibility of a country’s policy reforms (Fernandez and Portes 1998). This was explicitly PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 134 134 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund mentioned by Mexico in its request to the United States for an FTA and has been highlighted as an important reason that Eastern European countries have been keen to join the EU. Finally, studying how regionalism affects multilateralism is not the only way to look at the relationship between the two. A few authors have examined it from the other direction: how multilateralism affects regionalism. Both Ethier (1998) and Freund (2000a) view regional initiatives as a consequence of the success of multilateralism. Ethier asserts that it is a benign consequence, since PTAs intensify world investment and create incentives for economic reforms in less developed countries. Freund studies the incentives for and the sustainability of preferential liberalization when multilateral tariffs are lower and finds that deeper multilateralism provides greater incentives to form PTAs. The intuition draws from the complementarity effect between internal and external tariffs. When external tariffs are low, the loss from trade diversion is small, but the gains to producers from preferential access and to consumers from lower prices remain. This reasoning could help explain, at least in part, the large increase in PTAs since the conclusion of the Uruguay Round and the formation of the WTO in 1995. Regionalism Versus Multilateralism: Empirical Evidence The empirical literature on regionalism as a building block or stumbling block with respect to free trade is small, compared with the theoretical literature, but interesting results are beginning to emerge. To date, there is no evidence that regionalism has been a major stumbling block to free trade and some evidence that it has promoted broad liberalization. On the question of whether regional agreements alter countries’ willingness to move to free trade, there is only anecdotal evidence. PTA members have continued to participate in the WTO, with little evidence of a distinct change in priorities. Finally, on the welfare impact of regionalism, evidence of trade creation exceeds evidence of diversion. History points to complementarity between PTAs and external liberalization. Irwin (1996) shows that bilateral agreements during the nineteenth century induced broader liberalization. The Anglo-French treaty of 1860 led to a host of bilateral agreements that were ultimately linked by the inclusion of an unconditional MFN clause. Precisely because trade diversion associated with high tariffs was costly, the French negotiated numerous such MFN-style agreements. Using data on trade and trade policy in 50 countries between 1965 and 1995, Foroutan (1998) provides a general account of how countries forming regional trade blocs have adjusted their external tariffs. She finds that both integrating and nonintegrating countries have reduced their trade barriers, suggesting that regionalism is benign. However, Foroutan does not control for other factors that may have induced countries to behave as they did, making it impossible to disentangle the effects of trade agreements from those of other global, regional, or sectoral trends. Baldwin and Seghezza (2010) study the relationship between preferential and MFN tariffs in 23 developed and developing countries and find a positive relationship, suggestive of the tariff complementarity discussed earlier. Because their dataset is a cross-section (for 2005), the authors note that they cannot assess whether their result arises from a causal relationship or is just a consequence of, say, fixed effects that affect both preferential and multilateral tariff levels. Still, their findings indicate that regionalism has not led to significantly higher external tariffs. Using a detailed cross-industry dataset on Argentina for 1992, 1993, and 1996, Bohara, Gawande, and Sanguinetti (2004) examine the influence of imports from Mercosur’s partner Brazil on Argentina’s external tariffs. They find that increased preferential imports vis-Г -vis the value added of the domestic industry led to lower external tariffs in Argentina, especially in industries that experienced trade diversion. This, again, is consistent with the complementarity of tariffs. Trade diversion is costly, and to minimize it, tariffs were lowered in precisely those industries with the most diversion. One issue is that the study concentrates on the effects of increases in preferential imports and does not address the direct effect of preferential tariffs. Estevadeordal, Freund, and Ornelas (2008) offer the first attempt to evaluate empirically the effect of preferential tariffs on external trade liberalization in a large group of developing countries. They examine changes in preferential tariffs and MFN tariffs in 10 Latin American countries and 100 industries over 12 years. When countries form a PTA, they lower the tariffs they apply to each other, but the duties on imports from outside countries can increase, decrease, or remain unchanged. The authors look at how countries in Latin America, where regionalist forces have been particularly strong since the early 1990s, altered their trade policies vis-Г -vis bloc outsiders after forming PTAs and, specifically, whether sectors with relatively large preferences have been liberalized or protected to the same extent as other sectors. If countries raise their external tariffs (or reduce them by less) as a result of regional liberalization, such preferential arrangements should indeed raise concerns about the recent trend. If, instead, preferences lead to relatively lower external tariffs, regional agreements should be accorded a more benign reputation than they currently have. PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 135 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization The results imply that regionalism is a building block for free trade. There is no clear evidence that trade preferences lead to higher tariffs or smaller tariff cuts, and there is strong evidence that preferences induce a more rapid decline in external tariffs in free trade areas. For example, if a country that follows a strict policy of nondiscrimination offers free access to another country in a sector in which it applies a 15 percent multilateral tariff, the country would tend to subsequently reduce that external tariff by more than 3 percentage points. As in the study by Bohara and colleagues, Estevadeordal, Freund, and Ornelas (2008) find that the complementarity effect is stronger in sectors where trade bloc partners are more important suppliers, which is precisely where trade discrimination would be more disruptive. Using a similar methodology for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Calvo-Pardo, Freund, and Ornelas (2009) also find evidence that regionalism is associated with unilateral tariff reduction. Recent studies by LimГЈo (2006) and Karacaovali and LimГЈo (2008) address a related question: whether preferential liberalization by the United States and the EU hindered multilateral trade liberalization at the Uruguay Round. In the context of the theoretical literature described earlier, they examine the goodies-bag stumbling block and, specifically, whether commitments to liberalize were significantly different in goods that offered preferences and in goods that did not. These papers, however, do not take into account the size of the preferences or the importance of trade in the products that received preferential treatment. Both papers find that liberalization was relatively smaller in products where preferences were used. They argue that, intuitively, because the United States and the EU offer preferences on a unilateral basis to extract concessions from recipients in nontrade areas, they tend to resist liberalization to prevent erosion of preferences. The evidence in LimГЈo (2006) is widely misrepresented as showing that the United States raised tariffs in the Uruguay Round for items on which it granted PTA preferences. Of course, this cannot be correct, since MTN market access talks only involve tariff bindings, and the United States did not violate any of its bindings in the Uruguay Round. Indeed, the data show U.S. tariffs decreasing for all but 12 of the thousands of tariff lines, defined at the Harmonized System–8 product level in the WTO’s database. Formally, LimГЈo estimates an econometric model of U.S. tariff cuts during the Uruguay Round. His famous stumbling block finding is that the United States cut tariffs by less than his econometric model predicted they should have on items for which the United States had granted PTA preferences before the Uruguay Round. In short, he shows that the U.S. preferences acted as a “slowing block,” not as a stumbling block. 135 The findings of Foroutan (1998), Bohara, Gawande, and Sanguinetti (2004), Estevadeordal, Freund, and Ornelas (2008), and Calvo-Pardo, Freund, and Ornelas (2009)—all of which imply that regionalism is a building block for external liberalization in developing countries—contrast sharply with those of LimГЈo (2006) and of Karacaovali and LimГЈo (2008), who find that the United States and the EU liberalized less during the Uruguay Round in sectors in which preferences were granted. One reason for differing results is that that the countries analyzed are very different. Since the multilateral system has not enforced much tariff reduction on developing countries, tariffs are relatively high among that group, creating a large potential for trade diversion. Lower external tariffs moderate that loss. The results of the first group of researchers named above suggest that this force is important in explaining changes in MFN tariffs of developing countries involved in free trade areas. In contrast, LimГЈo’s work focuses on industrial countries. Tariffs were already quite low in the United States and the EU at the onset of the Uruguay Round, thus reducing the importance of this channel. In addition, the theoretical underpinnings of LimГЈo’s analysis, which is used to justify the importance of preferences in NorthSouth agreements, rely on the formation of PTAs for noneconomic reasons; preferential treatment is extended in return for noneconomic benefits, such as cooperation on migration, drug trafficking, or a global political agenda. This is not the case in South-South PTAs, where the goal is to exchange access to markets and improve regional economic cooperation. Welfare Consequences of PTAs A large portion of the empirical literature on trade diversion versus trade creation has attempted to provide answers to the question of whether bilateralism is bad (see box 6.1, above). If regionalism is moving world trade away from natural trade patterns, thus reducing world welfare, more diversion will be observed; if regionalism is pushing trade in the right direction, we should observe little diversion. The analyses also offer an indirect check on the effect of regional agreements on trade liberalization. If regional members tend to raise barriers to nonmembers, there should be strong evidence of trade diversion—increased trade with members at the expense of nonmembers. By contrast, if regional members tend to lower barriers to nonmembers in concert with PTAs, diversion should be limited. Unfortunately, estimating trade diversion is no easy task. It requires knowledge of the counterfactual: what would have happened to trade if there were no trade agreement? Since this is unknown, assumptions must be made. PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 136 136 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund Most studies use a gravity equation (which predicts bilateral trade on the basis of income and other characteristics) and focus on variables that capture the extent to which PTA partners trade more or less than would otherwise be expected.26 The key trade creation variable is a dummy that is equal to 1 if both countries are members of a common PTA; the key trade diversion variable is a dummy that is 1 if one country belongs to a PTA and the other does not. (See Frankel, Stein, and Wei 1995; CarrГЁre 2006; Lee and Shin 2006.) A positive coefficient on the former offers evidence of trade creation; a negative coefficient on the latter offers evidence of diversion. Overall, the message from such studies is that trade creation predominates. In fact, a concern is that the estimates of the creation effect may be implausibly large, as well as too dependent on the sample of countries and variables included (Haveman and Hummels 1998). Magee (2008) expands on the traditional approach with insights from the literature on the proper estimation of gravity models. He uses panel data for 133 countries between 1980 and 1998 and includes country-pair fixed effects, exporter-year fixed effects, and importer-year fixed effects to capture the counterfactual more accurately than standard gravity specifications would. The dyad effects pick up what is natural about the trade partners, and the exporter-year and importer-year effects pick up countryspecific dynamics. Magee finds that the average impact of agreements on trade flows is small, only 3 percent. Moreover, on average, trade creation dominates trade diversion by about one order of magnitude. Another strand of the literature uses more disaggregated data to examine specific agreements. Clausing (2001) develops an analysis at the product level of the 1988 Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). Using variations in liberalization across industries to identify trade creation and diversion, she finds that in most sectors trade creation tends to be the rule and trade diversion the exception. Taking a similar approach, Trefler (2004) finds both trade creation and trade diversion in CUSFTA but calculates positive welfare effects for the average Canadian. Romalis (2007) finds that the expansion of CUSFTA to Mexico, through NAFTA, has been trade diverting. Romalis’s exercise is similar to Clausing’s and Trefler’s, but he uses changes in EU trade over the period to capture what would have happened in the absence of the agreement. Although this might create a better counterfactual if the NAFTA countries were very similar to the EU, it could lead to overestimates of trade diversion in NAFTA if the EU’s trade with its own new and existing trade agreement partners were to expand more rapidly. Even so, Romalis’s results suggest that the welfare costs of the agreement are tiny. A different perspective is taken by Chang and Winters (2002), who study the effects of Mercosur—a trading bloc formed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay in 1991—on export prices to Brazil. They find that Argentina’s export prices increased, whereas the export prices of countries outside Mercosur fell. These price effects indicate that Mercosur has hurt outsiders while helping Brazil, a Mercosur partner.27 As Krugman (1991b) shows, whether an agreement is welfare improving also depends on trade costs. To determine whether nature plays a role in PTA formation, Frankel, Stein, and Wei (1995) examine whether regional trade is greater than could be explained by natural determinants— proximity, size, per capita gross national product, common border, common language, and so on. They find in favor of the formation of “natural” trade blocs. Krishna (2003) tackles the natural trade bloc question by using detailed U.S. trade data to estimate the welfare effects from 24 hypothetical bilateral trade agreements in a general equilibrium framework and then correlating the estimated welfare changes with geographic variables and trade volumes. Neither geography nor trade volume is found to be significantly correlated with welfare gains, indicating that they are not good indicators of the gains from trade, as the natural trade bloc approach would suggest. Still, Krishna finds that 80 percent of the potential agreements he examines are welfare improving. Given the predominance of trade creation, it is not clear that a correlation between distance or trade volume and welfare is necessary to indicate that blocs are formed naturally. To determine which agreements are most natural, the costs of forming an agreement should also be included, and such costs are plausibly lower with a neighbor or with a large trade partner, as the relationship between the two countries is likely to be well developed. Baier and Bergstrand (2004) develop a general equilibrium model to determine which country pairs would gain the most from forming PTAs. They then examine whether these dyads were actually linked by a PTA in a sample of 53 countries in 1996. They find that the likelihood of a PTA is larger the closer the two countries are to each other, the more remote they are from RoW, the larger their gross domestic products (GDPs), the smaller the difference between their GDPs, the larger their relative factor endowment difference, and the wider the (absolute) difference between their and RoW’s capital-labor ratios. These variables predict the formation of 85 percent of the bilateral PTAs in their sample. Their results thus offer support for the natural trade bloc view.28 In subsequent work, Baier and Bergstrand (2007) use the same approach to estimate the impact of PTAs on trade flows. Their key finding is that, PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 137 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization once one takes into account the endogeneity of the agreements, the positive impact of PTAs on bilateral trade becomes more robust and much larger—in fact, five times larger—than in estimates that take agreements as exogenous. Thus, countries seem to form PTAs when there is much to be gained from liberalizing bilateral trade. Proving that agreements are natural or unnatural is daunting, as it requires an assessment of many potential agreements and their welfare consequences—and calculating trade diversion and creation in even one agreement is already difficult. Nevertheless, there is solid empirical support for the more general premise of the natural trade bloc view: that trade blocs are formed by countries that have much to gain from freer trade. The theoretical literature on static effects of trade agreements highlights the potential costs of preferential liberalization and the possibility that trade-diverting agreements may be more viable politically. The empirical literature is not entirely conclusive, but it does suggest that trade diversion is not a major concern, although in some agreements and sectors it may matter. Trade diversion may be less relevant than was initially thought because countries form trade agreements with “natural trading partners,” where trade creation is the norm, or because governments may respond to trade diversion by reducing external tariffs. Overall, the empirical literature shows that countries in regional agreements tend to liberalize trade broadly. There is evidence that regional agreement members tend to reduce external tariffs, and that this is especially true of members of free trade agreements (as opposed to customs unions). In addition, trade diversion tends to be small or nonexistent, which is consistent with endogenous tariff changes that reduce costly diversion. There is, however, some evidence that regional agreements may limit trade liberalization in the multilateral setting. Conclusions and Rules for PTAs In this chapter, we have examined the effect of regionalism on the multilateral trade system. The theoretical literature underscores the diverse mechanisms by which regionalism can be helpful or harmful to that system. So far, there is little evidence that regionalism is overwhelmingly bad for the multilateral trade system, as some had feared, and there is some evidence that regionalism is associated with general liberalization. To ensure that regionalism is a positive force in the future, four ideal guidelines can be kept in mind: 1. Bind tariff rates at applied rates, leaving no room for tariff increases following a trade agreement. This measure 137 prevents countries from backtracking on previous liberalization. Although this would be difficult to accomplish, it is a worthwhile goal. Tariffs in most developing countries are set well below their bindings (by 20 to 30 percentage points!), making the term “binding” meaningless. A move toward more restrictive bindings would make regionalism less dangerous and would give member countries a lever against a potential increase in the political forces favoring protection. 2. Agree to lower multilateral tariffs partway, through the use of preferential tariffs. Even though empirical work has shown that regionalism tends to be a force for general liberalization, irrespective of restrictions, a commitment in this direction would ensure that regionalism serves as a building block for free trade. 3. Redefine North-South agreements to incorporate preferences from the North in response to MFN liberalization on the part of the South. In the developing countries, where tariffs are generally higher, this would prevent sizable diversion. In addition, it would be far easier to implement than a range of tariffs across various agreements. 4. Keep regional agreements open, extending eligibility to all countries willing to follow the rules.29 This helps ward against a global outcome dominated by a handful of protective trade blocs. Trade negotiators should have these guidelines in mind, but the WTO should also do its part to ensure a positive spread of regionalism. This can be accomplished by monitoring regional agreements among members, publishing reports on regional agreements that call attention to bad behavior, and securing the authority to impose more restrictions on regional agreements. Given the concerns about regionalism, it is important to highlight where the long-run potential benefits can be found. The best way to ensure that regionalism is welfare improving is for countries to pursue serious deep integration agreements. Real resource gains are obtainable if countries integrate labor markets, combine regulatory institutions, harmonize standards, and cooperate extensively on trade facilitation. Removal of behind-the-border barriers will enhance trade and welfare without the traditional costs of PTAs in tariff revenue and trade diversion. The benefits of deep integration include real resource gains that will accrue to nonmembers as well as members. The focus should be on the quality, not the number, of agreements. There is a danger, however, that the present wave of PTAs is being generated by minor agreements that will not produce significant benefits, especially given their cost to the world trading system. How to achieve deeper PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 138 138 Richard Baldwin and Caroline Freund integration in services, agriculture, transport, and other sectors will be the focus of most of the remaining chapters of this volume. Notes The authors are grateful for comments from Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Jaime de Melo, and Jean-Christophe Maur. 1. Bhagwati (1993, 2008) and Panagariya and Bhagwati (1999) provide in-depth discussions of these concerns. 2. Grossman and Helpman (1995), Levy (1997), and Krishna (1998) show that regionalism can lead to a reduction in support for multilateral liberalization. However, Bagwell and Staiger (1999), Freund (2000b), and Ornelas (2005b) find that the formation of a PTA can cause its members to lower tariffs. Panagariya (2000) offers an excellent survey of the literature. 3. A tariff can theoretically be used optimally to protect an infant industry until it is strong enough to compete. It is difficult, however, to identify the infants that have potential to grow, and it is often difficult to drop protection after it has served its purpose. Moreover, it is typically politically connected sectors, rather than growing sectors, that obtain protection. 4. The next two sections draw heavily on Baldwin (2009). 5. Bhagwati (1991, 71) ascribes the shift to the United States’ conversion to regionalism, but this contradicts the judgments of trade policy scholars who were engaged in the details of policy at the time (Wonnacott 1987, 17; Schott 1988, 29; Whalley 1996; Hufbauer, Schott, and Clark 1994, 100). It also contradicts the facts. Bearing witness to the longstanding U.S. interest in regionalism is a string of deals that were struck, or almost struck, in 1854, 1874, and 1911. In March 1948 the United States and Canada concluded a secret draft protocol eliminating most tariffs and quotas bilaterally, but this was ultimately rejected by the Canadians. In 1958, U.S. government procurement was preferentially liberalized in Canada’s favor, and in 1965, the U.S.–Canada Auto Pact came into force. The 1974 Trade Act authorized the U.S. president to negotiate an FTA with Canada, and the 1979 Trade Agreements Act required the president to study an FTA in North America. 6. See Baldwin (1993, 1997) and Serra et al. (1997) for an account of this domino effect. 7. Krugman argued that the multilateral process had run aground with the December 1990 failure of the Uruguay Round and was unlikely to get afloat any time soon because the system was plagued by profound problems. “While some kind of face-saving document will probably be produced, in reality the [Uruguay Round] has clearly failed either to significantly liberalize trade or to generate goodwill that would help sustain further rounds of negotiation” (Krugman 1991b, 5). Regionalism, however, was not one of those fundamental problems. “But while the move to free trade areas has surely done the multilateral process some harm, it is almost surely more a symptom than a cause of the decline of the GATT. . . . The problems of the GATT are so deep-seated that it is unlikely that a world without regional free trade agreements would do much better” (Krugman 1991b, 20). He closed his essay with a prediction that history falsified and with a faute de mieux view of regionalism: The world may well be breaking up into three trading blocs; trade within those blocs will be quite free, while trade between the blocs will at best be no freer than it is now and may well be considerably less free. This is not what we might have hoped for. But the situation would not be better, and could easily have been worse, had the great free trade agreements of recent years never happened. (Krugman 1991b, 20–21) 8. The logic of the preference-erosion or exploitation stumbling block was demonstrated in a Walrasian setting by Riezman (1985) and Kennan and Riezman (1990) and in a Brander-Krugman setting by Krishna (1998) and Freund (2000a). See also Goto and Hamada (1995), NordstrГ¶m (1995), and Bond and Syropoulos (1996a, sec. 3) for examples of preference-erosion stumbling blocks. 9. The theoretical notion was formalized by LimГЈo (2007). 10. Levy (1997) illustrates a cherry-picking stumbling block in a highly stylized setup, but his main result is surely more general than his model. 11. This is called the Stolper-Samuelson effect in the economic literature. 12. More formally, without MTNs, governments maximize a politically weighted objective function that includes matters affected by the nation’s own tariffs: profits of import-competing sectors, consumer surplus, and tariff revenue. During the negotiations, a nation’s tariff affects all those things, but foreign tariff levels are linked to domestic tariffs via reciprocity, and the objective function now includes the effect of foreign tariffs on exporter’s profits. Since this new impact is negative (higher domestic tariffs reduce exporter’s profits via reciprocity), announcement of the MTN leads the government to find it politically optimal to choose a tariff that is lower than the politically optimal tariff before the MTN. 13. The word “juggernaut,” defined as “any massive inexorable force that advances crushing whatever is in the path,” stems from a British mispronunciation of the name of the Hindu deity of the Puri shrine, Jagannath. A festival held in Puri involves the “chariot of Jagannath,” an enormous and unwieldy construction that requires thousands of people to get it rolling. Once started, however, it rolls over anything in its path. 14. The juggernaut logic is from Baldwin (1994, ch. 2.5); it is elaborated in Baldwin and Robert-Nicoud (2005) and Baldwin (2006) and formalized in part by Freund (2000b). The first part of the juggernaut mechanism—realignment of domestic special interests through reciprocity—has long been recognized in histories of trade liberalization— for example, by Bergsten (1996) and Destler (2005), under the name “bicycle theory and export politics.” The point was also made by many others, including Robert Baldwin (1985). The basic idea dates much further back, as Irwin (1996) points out. More recently, the first half of the juggernaut logic has been studied formally by Grossman and Helpman (2001) and by Bagwell and Staiger (2002). Juggernaut-like mechanisms were discussed independently by Hufbauer, Schott, and Clark (1994, 164) and by Richardson (1993). Bergsten (1998) mentions an alternative source of political-economy momentum (“modest liberalization begets broader liberalization by demonstrating its payoff and familiarizing domestic politics with the issue”). Staiger (1995) uses a repeated game setting, with workers moving slowly out of the import-competing sector to generate gradualism, but MTNs and GATT reciprocity play no role. Milner (1997) and Oye (1992), working independently in the international political-economy context, discuss mechanisms by which PTAs can create a proliberalization political-economy momentum. More recently, Hathaway (1998) presents a similar logic in her positive-feedback model. 15. But multilateral tariff cutting may also lower tariffs to a level at which PTAs become feasible, when previously they were not; this may have been the case with the Canada–U.S. FTA. 16. Agriculture in Europe is a good example. Formation of the customs union realigned special interests in the European Economic Community (EEC) in a way that fostered higher agricultural tariffs. EEC tariffs on agricultural goods were not bound until the 1990s, and so the community was free to raise its agricultural tariffs without appealing to the Article 24 exception. Since EEC tariffs were bound for manufacturing goods, EEC members needed the Article 24 exception to establish the common external tariff (CET), and this led them to respect the article’s requirement that the CET not be higher, on average. Roughly speaking, France lowered its tariffs; Germany raised its tariffs; and Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands did little, as their tariffs were initially between the French and German levels. In this way, the formation of the EEC customs union probably reduced the overall size of the EEC import-competing sector in manufacturing but raised it in agriculture. 17. The key concepts are “coalition externalities” (Haberler’s spillover) and “grand-coalition superadditivity” (global free trade is first-best). The authors assume that one nation is the undisputed agenda setter and that PTAPD_121-142.qxd:inte_001-028_ch01 7/5/11 12:20 PM Page 139 Preferential Trade Agreements and Multilateral Liberalization unlimited international transfers (transferable utility, in game theory parlance) are possible. 18. See Lloyd (2002) for a clear development of the veto-avoidance logic. This line of thinking is one strand in the widely discussed competitive liberalization logic advanced by Bergsten (1996). 19. This is especially true given all the separability that rules Meade’s secondary and tertiary effects (see Meade 1955). 20. Given the separability of the markets, the second FTA with RoW would yield a price for Good 3 equal to P'. 21. Contributions to the literature that have looked at the complementarity versus substitutes effects include Riezman (1985), Kennan and Riezman (1990), Krugman (1991a, 1991b, 1996), Richardson (1993), Bond and Syropoulos (1996a), Freund (2000a), and Ornelas (2005b, 2007). 22. Shibata (1967), Vousden (1990), Krueger (1993), Richardson (1993, 1994, 1995), and Grossman and Helpman (1995) are all important contributors to or users of this line of analysis. 23. Extension of this analysis led to the proposition of the unsustainablity of FTAs. Vousden (1990, 234) argues that Home would be tempted to lower its MFN tariff to just under that of Partner in order to recapture the tariff revenue and that Partner would have an incentive to reply, with the resulting race-to-the-bottom tariff making FTAs “unsustainable.” Richardson (1995) extended and popularized this result. The main results in Shibata (1967), Vousden (1990), and Richardson (1995)—the irrelevance of rules of origin and the unsustainability of FTAs—are of little relevance to real-world policy concerns. (Rules of origin are at the heart of many current policy debates, and FTAs, not customs unions, are by far the most prevalent form of PTA.) 24. This approach came to be known as the terms-of-trade approach after Kyle Bagwell, Robert Staiger, and their students formally modeled the issues, starting with Bagwell and Staiger (1993). For examples of this sort of application to regionalism questions, see Bond and Syropoulos (1996b); Bond, Syropoulos, and Winters (1996); Campa and Sorenson (1996); Yi (1996); Bagwell and Staiger (1999); Conconi (2000); Conconi and Perroni (2000); Freund (2000b); and Ornelas (2005a, 2007). 25. This is not a new point. It is very clear in the discussion of Johnson (1953) but probably dates much further back. Indeed, the notion that a quid pro quo would be mutually advantageous was probably well understood by trade diplomats as far back as Roman times. 26. An alternative is to use computable general equilibrium models to identify counterfactuals, but the results are highly dependent on the parameters assumed. See, for example, Brown, Deardorff, and Stern (1992). 27. Schiff and Chang (2003) find that the threat of duty-free exports from Argentina to Brazil, measured by Argentina’s exports of the same good to another country, also lowers prices of exports by nonmembers of Mercosur to Brazil. 28. Egger and Larch (2008) confirm those findings in a larger sample, finding also that preexisting nearby PTAs increase the probability that a country pair will form a PTA. 29. Baldwin (2006) argues that the WTO can be involved, as was done in the Information Technology (IT) Agreement, which bound IT tariffs at zero for all countries willing to join. 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