ovdje.

Application of Six Sigma Methodology
and Use of Data in Decision -Making in
the Fixed Line Planning Process
Siniša Štifanić, mr. sc., LSS BB
[email protected]
Gordan Krčelić, dipl. ing., PMP, LSS BB
[email protected]
Zagreb, 25.02.2015.
A
Step Reduction
Ahead in Customer
Satisfaction
Project
of Waiting List
2010
Six Sigma Program
page11
Program,, page
Project management: Six Sigma
Continuous process improvement
Variation
Improvement
project
Commitment
Customer satisfaction
Cost
Sigma value vs # of defects in
one million opportunities
6 Sigma
Market share
5 Sigma
Profit
Cycle time
Revenue
4 Sigma
3,4 Defects
233 Defects
6,210 Defects
Yield
3 Sigma
2 Sigma
66,807 Defects
308,537 Defects
page 2/32
Six Sigma stands for
A measurement which provides the number of defects in a process
Six Sigma is a
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN AND
SYSTEMATIC PROCEDURE
with
Six Sigma started within manufacturing industries, but has evolved years ago
into service industries. Here it stands for delivery against customer
requirements, reducing variation and thereby optimizing cost-to-serve and
driving customer satisfaction.
CLEAR OBJECTIVES AND
RESPONSIBILITIES,
A methodology (DMAIC, DFSS) and a proven set of best-in-class tools
which ensures
A management approach characterized by fact-based decision-making
MEASURABLE RESULTS
for systematic improvement and design of processes (end-to-end) as well as
products.
that has proved its ability & power since 1990 in many service industries like
IT Services, Telecommunication and Financial Services.
Voice of Customer (VoC) is the base of Six Sigma
”Give the Customer what he wants when he wants it – but profitably!”
page 3/32
DMAIC Process Improvement Methodology
How to systematically improve a business process?
What is the problem in
fulfilling customer
requirements?
 Identify area of problem
 Define project contract
 Nominate project team
 Explore customer requirements
DEFINE
How can we make
the solution
CONTROL
sustainable?
MEASURE
 Roll-out
 Document new process
 Set in place monitoring
 Handover Process Owner
IMPROVE
What is the
solution to the problem?
 Collect solution proposals
 Evaluate solution alternatives
 Select and document best solutions
 Execute pilot implementation
How big is the problem?
 Document as-is state of process
 Plan data collection
 Collect data
 Validate data
ANALYZE
What is the root
cause of the
problem?
 Interpret data
 Analyze process
 Identify root causes
 Verify root causes
page 4/32
Sense of Six Sigma
Is 99% good enough?
99% good (3,8 Sigma)
99,99966% good (6 Sigma)
20 K lost articles of mail per hour
Seven articles lost per hour
Unsafe drinking water for almost
15 min. each day
One unsafe minute every seven
months
5.000 incorrect surgical operations
per week
1,7 incorrect surgical operations
per week
Two short or long landings at most
major airports each day
One short or long landing every five
years
200.000 wrong drug prescriptions
each year
68 wrong prescriptions per year
No electricity for almost seven hours
each month
One hour without electricity every
34 years
page 5/32
Problem: Choosing the most profitable investments
Where to invest? What project size? Which technology to use?
Problem: Choosing the most profitable investments
Which investment is more profitable? How to compare them?
Lean Six Sigma projects for improvement of planning process in copper and
fiber access network
Background:
Broadband waiting list (ADSL+ IPTV) represents dissatisfied customers as their requests for BB services couldn't be
fulfilled forcing them to seek in telecom market some other BB service provider and if found it results in churn of basic
service.
On the other hand, WL represents lost opportunity for increased revenue for the company. Strategic goals in T-HT are
revenue increase, customer loyalty, quality and efficiency. Reducing number of BB pending requests on WL is therefore
tightly aligned with company’s strategic goal which is additionally emphasized with targets set in CTO area regarding
WL decrease by 30% by the EOY 201x.
Projects:
Improve fiber optic access network planning process

Specific
Measurable
Attainable
Realistic
Time - bound



Detected problem : On dd.mm.yyyy there were xy
BB pending requests in Croatian Telecom Inc.
related to resource delivery, e.g. there is no
technical ability for their fulfillment. Present CAPEX
implementation access network plan covers only
6,5% of BB WL.
PCM related BB WL holds xy pending requests
which corresponds to 17% of total BB CAPEX WL.
Project’s goal: Network related fiber optics CAPEX
budget to be used in most profitable way.
Improve copper access network planning process



Reduce PCM related CAPEX Broad Band WL by
30% till EOY 201x.

Detected problem : On dd.mm.yyyy there were xy
BB pending requests in Croatian Telecom Inc.
related to resource delivery, e.g. there is no
technical ability for their fulfillment. Present CAPEX
implementation access network plan covers only
6,5% Broad Band WL.
Access network related BB WL (PCM excluded)
holds yx pending requests which correspond to
60% of BB CAPEX WL.
Project’s goal: Network related copper CAPEX
budget (all necessary investment needed to
increase copper access network capacity included)
to be used in most profitable way.
Reduce Access network related CAPEX BB WL by
30% till EOY 201x.
page 8/32
D
As-is process map
M
A
I
C
PROCESS DOOR
“Which problem causes were identified in the process flow?”
Swim Line Diagram – Planning to Realization process
Snimljen na radionici 16.09.2010. Sudionici radionice: Joško Alfirević; Damir Buneta; Dražen Košir; Željko Matotek; Frane Brkić; Boris Skular; Stanko Matok; Dražen Kralj; Dražen Šušnjar
Analiza parametara
OPEX + Potencijal
Rangiranje projekata
(kandidiranje) na
temelju strateških KPI
Određivanje
implementacisjkog
plana
Izrada operativnog
DRAFT plana
realizacije
Finalni plan ralizacije
Zahtjev za
odobrenjem svakog
projekta sukladno
vremenskom plau
Kvartalna prednajava
radova; mjesečna
najava prodaji;
Forecast materijala
Kreiranje projektnih
zadataka
Unos u SAP;
Narudžba za
izvođenje
Unos u KVAZAR,
otvaranje strukture u
SAP-u
Kontrola kvalitete
Predaja izgrađenih
resursa u exploataciju
Aktivacija nove
imovine; Zatvaranje
projekta
T44
T44
Sudjeluje u izradi
operativnog DRAFT
plana realizacije
T1
T1
Sudjeluje u izradi
operativnog DRAFT
plana realizacije
T45
T45
T42
T42
T43
T43
Kreiranje tehničkih
rješenja
Strukturiranje
projekata
(Obuhvat +
tehnologija)
Otprilike na dan
01.09.
Kontrola kvalitete
Izrada projektne
dokumentacije (teh.
prostori, klima i
napajanje)
Odobrenje svakog
projekta/entiteta
sudjeluju direktori T43,
T45, T4, T5, CTO
Određivanje IPF-a
Realizacija napajanja;
klime i tehničkih
prostora
Kontrola kvalitete
Primopredaja
tehničkih prostora
Kontrola kvalitete
Primanje u
exploataciju
Buđetiranje projekta u
BREEZE
T3
T3
Usuglašavanje plana s
obzirom na dostupne
resurse za
primopredaju
Izrada detaljnog
kvartalnog plana
realizacije
Izrada projektne
dokumentacije
Vanjski
Vanjski
dobavljači
dobavljači
T5
T5
Kreiranje tehničkih
rješenja
Usuglašavanje plan
realizacije s obzirom
na dostupne resurse
Nabava
Nabava
Kontroling
Kontroling
Izrada projektne
dokumentacije
Izvođenje radova
Izvođenje radova
PRAP status u SAP-u
Nabava
page 9/32
D
Cause and Effect diagram
M
A
I
C
PROCESS DOOR
“Which might be the causes of insufficient as-is process performance?”
Material
Measurements
Ulazni podaci u proces
planiranja ne ažuriraju se u Breezu;
X
neažurirane i neprecizne baze
Ne postoji unificirana
forma projektnog
zadatka X
Komunalni redari:
zauzimanje javne
površine
C
Realizacija CAPEX-a Projektiranje je podređeno
kao cilj je važniji od drugim zahtjevima:
- pražnjenje zaliha sa skladišta
ROI investicije
- nepostojanje suglasnosti
X
N - FTTA gdje se ne treba kopati
Ugradnja restlova kabela zahtijeva
ugradnju dodatnih spojnica što
povećava vrijednost radova X
Postojeća dokumentacija upitna i
nakon provjere zbog uvlačenja
kabela od strane drugih operatora
Methods
C
Pronalaženje rješenja zadovoljenja
zakonske regulative kroz:
- intervencije
X
- rekonstrukcije
- razradu proj. dok. mimo one koja
treba zakonom
Preuranjeno puštanje novih
aplikacija u produkciju uvođenjem
kojih je svaki puta nastupio zastoj u
procesu (KVAZAR, MPC,
X
SUPREMA, BREEZE)
Suglasnosti:
- Lokalna uprava
- HEP
- HAC C
HAKOM: nova
regulativa
Poslovne potrebe nisu dobro artikulirane
Ne postoji BC (ROI) za svaki projekt C
Nemamo rang listu projekata po ROI C
Nije jasno koju topologiju mreže
koristiti u kontekstu novih pravilnika
X
Zašto se CAPEX za
CU/FO ne koristi na
najprofitabilniji
način?
Educiranost resursa za korištenje
novih aplikacija (KVAZAR, MPC,
SUPREMA, BREEZE)
X
C
Mother Nature
X
Machines
Men
X
Cause that can be influenced
C
Constant - cannot be influenced
N
Noise
page 10/32
D
Model for calculating investment profitability in copper and
fiber access network
Process
Input
M
A
I
C
Output
Planning &
Strategy
Services &
Maintenance
Sales &
Marketing
Project prioritization
Customer
potential
S.1.1; S1.2; I.1.3; I.1.4*
OPEX
A.2.3; A3.3*
CAPEX
S.3.1*
•Existing services upsell
•Future services upsell
•Income erosion prevention
Model for PI**
calculation in FO
access network
•1st level FR
•2nd level FR
•Maintenance
•TK equipment relocation
•Ducts construction
•FO Access netw. constr.
•Cu Access netw. constr.
•Active system constr.
Model for PI
calculation in Cu
access network
PROJECT
PI
BUKOVAC PK_PK_007
3,45
JOSIPOVAC_PK_003
3,70
SESVETE_PK_002
4,00
DONJI ANDRIJEVCI_003
4,02
DONJI ANDRIJEVCI_PK_
4,23
SESVETE_PK_03
5,23
PEŠĆENICA_PK_04
6,00
DUBRAVA ZAPAD PK_05
6,44
DONJI GRAD_PK_06
6,67
MARKUŠEVAC_PK_07
7,70
TROGIR_PK_08
7,80
SINJ_PK_O9
7,91
S.1.1; S1.2; I.1.3; I.1.4; A.2.3; A3.3; S.3.1* - eTOM Business Process Framework Level 1: Market Strategy & Policy; Product & Offer Portfolio Planning;
Product & Offer Capability Delivery; Marketing Capability Delivery; Service Problem Mgmt; Resource Trouble Mgmt; RM&O Support & Readiness
PI**- Priority Index
page 11/32
Model for Customer potential estimation at Distribution Point
level in T-HT
D
M
A
I
C
Customers on Broad Band WL
Customer penetration: “Short/long loop”
Existing
services
upsell
Win back from ULL
Win back from CPS-a
Customer
Potential
Income
erosion
prevention
FO/Cu
Comparison of the current throughput of each network
segment, and predicted distribution of income by
ranges of speed in 2016
DWH.DIS; DWH.SAP_IST
DATA SOURCE
page 12/32
D
M
A
Potential income allocation regarding Broad Band services penetration
I
C
“Short/long loop” penetration principle
Penetration on DP’s with technical posibility:
RSS/DSLAM
Active Brod Band
services on DP
ADSL
MaxTV
ADSL: 6+5+4+6+4+4=30 / 60 = 50%
IPTV: 4+3+2 = 9/30 = 30%
DP’s
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
6
5
4
6
5
0
4
0
4
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
%ADSL
60%
50%
40%
60%
50%
0%
40%
0%
%MaxTV
40%
30%
20%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
+ ADSL
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
5
+IPTV
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
Potential income per DP* = Nr. of additional services x ARPU x 12
*Assumptions:
• The population is homogeneous along the cable, no difference in habits, needs and purchasing power among customers who are located a few dozen meters
from the junction compared to those who are 2 or 3 km from the node
• Penetration of ADSL per cable is calculated as: (nr. of ADSL + WL_ADSL + max(ULL/2; CHURN_ADSL) / (nr. of POTS_BRA + nr. of ULL) – it is assumed that
50% ULL customers have ADSL service installed; analog math is used for MaxTV uwith assumption that 20% ULL customers have IPTV service installed
page 13/32
D
Income erosion prevention*
M
A
I
C
Variable customer potential and Future services up-sell
Ranges of rate
Distribution of income
20xx
5,5 MB >
12 MB >
20 MB >
25 MB >
50 MB >
Annual potential:
P [kn]
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
DP today
T2
20
pairs
80%
91%
11%
99%
5%
3%
1%
0%
T4
% Income at risk
z%
Distribution of income
201x
10%
5%
10%
20%
30%
55%
25%
Yearly allocated income
z•85%
IT2=P• z•85% [kn]
z•55%
IT4=P• z•55% [kn]
PI_rr_gp_pp_izv
*Assumptions:
• Attainable rate for each DP is calculated as the lowest measured rate of all currently active
Broad Band services on this DP and in accordance with this information each DP is classified in
the category with corresponding rate
• If on some DP currently we don’t have any active Broad Band service, DP is placed in
corresponding category according to the data about distance from the node.
• z% customers will never need Broadband service
IT4 < IT2
page 14/32
Model for potential OPEX savings allocation at
Distribution Point level in HT
D
Fault handling cost in CC
M
A
I
C
DWH.DIS
# of 1st level faults resolved on access network multiplied
1st level FR
by average fault resolution cost for 1st level FR in MFG /
Subcontractors and SMC
DWH.STAGE_WWMS
Revenue loss due to traffic interruption
due1st level faults
OPEX
savings
potential per
Distribution
Point
FO/Cu
Cost of material on 1st level faults
2nd level
FR/Maintenan
ce/TK
infrastructure
relocation
DWH.DIS; DWH.DONAT
SAP
2nd level fault handling cost
DWH.DIS; DWH.STAGE_WWMS; SAP
Preventive maintenance cost
DWH.DIS; DWH.STAGE_WWMS; SAP
TK equipment relocation cost
DWH.DIS; DWH.STAGE_WWMS; SAP
DATA SOURCE
page 15/32
Modules for CAPEX investment estimation
D
M
A
I
C
Area type (Rurral/Urbn)
DTK
DTK length, nr. of tubes ….
FTTA
Length of the route
Nr. of HH, …
Nr. of subscribers
CAPEX project
Obect type
FTTH
Area type
Fiber
Trunk
Shortening
of the CU
loop
Length of the route
DTK length, Area type
Expert team,
based on many years of
experience, has created a
modules to estimate the
size of CAPEX
investments in a particular
segment of the network
using several key
parameters.
Modules were tested on
already finished projects
and it was determined that
the estimated investment
is within + / - 20% of the
actual investment
Active equipment
Cable works
page 16/32
Calculated values are displayed on GIS portal which enables
simple selection of project area coverage
For every DP potential
and possible OPEX
savings are shown on
map
D
M
A
I
C
With several mouse
clicks it is possible to
determine project
coverage
DP data in ceratin
project coverage can
be easily transferred to
excel or some other
system
page 17/32
Advantages of proposed concept
D
M
A
I
■
Based on relevant customer data, their services, accounts and unrealized requests, reported faults and
other OPEX costs for all distribution points in network, the benefits are uniquely determined that can be
achieved by investing in fiber or copper access network
■
Quick, simple and transparent determination of needed CAPEX investment
■
Unambiguous determination of the projects scope - introduced link between the project, included
distribution points and affected customers
■
Facilitated decision making on investments prioritization in access network
■
Reduced possibility of input data misinterpretation
■
Planning experts are allowed to easily update the relevant information about the benefits of the project
whose implementation requires longer period of time
■
This approach creates the preconditions to communicate to any user on the Resources part of the WL
information about the expected time of realization of his/her request
C
page 32/32
QUESTIONS?
D
M
A
I
C

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