APPLICATIONS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY KIP/ASVT 2009/10 Accelerating Growth Double exponential growth • There's exponential growth even in the rate of exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling every year • It took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per second) per thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand dollars every day. • Every point on the exponential growth curves represents an intense human drama of innovation and competition. It is remarkable that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. • For example, when the human genome scan started, critics pointed out that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of years to finish the project. Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Communications • Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less significant in its implications. • Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others. Internet • The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of hosts Wireless communication • the power is doubling every 10 to 11 months. • 1973 - Network Voice Protocol introduced • 1980 - Internet Protocol came into existence • 1989 - ISDN/Integrated Services Digital Network came into existence • 1991 - The first GSM network was launched in 1991 by Radiolinja in Finland. • 1995 - First VoIP connection • 2001 - Vonage founded • 2002 - Skype founded • December 2006 - Over 8 million concurrent users on Skype • 2006 - 7% of all international US voice traffic was sent through Skype Economy • Virtually all of the economic models taught in economics classes are fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than the historically based exponential view. • The reason that these linear models appear to work for a while is for the same reason that most people adopt the intuitive linear view in the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for a brief period of time, particularly in the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is happening. • But once the "knee of the curve" is achieved and the exponential growth explodes, the linear models break down. • The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century: Software Price-Performance • has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate • Example: Automatic Speech Recognition Software 1985 1995 2000 Price $5 000 $500 $50 Vocabulary Size (# words) 1000 10 000 100 000 Continuous Speech? No No Yes User Training Required (Minutes) 180 60 5 Accuracy Poor Fair Good Diminishing returns - 1 • Diminishing returns (also diminishing marginal returns, the law of diminishing returns, law of increasing relative cost, or law of increasing opportunity cost): in a production system with fixed and variable inputs (say factory size and labor), beyond some point, each additional unit of variable input yields less and less additional output. Conversely, producing one more unit of output costs more and more in variable inputs. • Although ostensibly a purely economic concept, diminishing marginal returns also implies a technological relationship. Diminishing marginal returns states that a firm's short run marginal cost curve will eventually increase. It is possibly among the best-known economic "laws." Diminishing returns - 2 • Suppose that one kilogram (kg) of seed applied to a plot of land of a fixed size produces one ton of harvestable crop. You might expect that an additional kilogram of seed would produce an additional ton of output. However, if there are diminishing marginal returns, that additional kilogram will produce less than one additional ton of harvestable crop (on the same land, during the same growing season, and with nothing else but the amount of seeds planted changing). For example, the second kilogram of seed may only produce a half ton of extra output. Diminishing marginal returns also implies that a third kilogram of seed will produce an additional crop that is even less than a half ton of additional output. Assume that it is one quarter of a ton. Diminishing returns - 3 • A consequence of diminishing marginal returns is that as total investment increases, the total return on investment as a proportion of the total investment (the average product or return) also decreases. The return from investing the first kilogram is 1 t/kg. The total return when 2 kg of seed are invested is 1.5/2 = 0.75 t/kg, while the total return when 3 kg are invested is 1.75/3 = 0.58 t/kg. Resources • Ray Kurzweil: The Law of Accelerating Returns, http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/fram e.html?main=/articles/art0134.html • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerati ng_change iPod-iTunes-iPhone iPod iPod shuffle iPod nano iPod classic iPod touch iPod • launched in October 2001 • over 110 million units worldwide, as of September 2007 • iPod can play a variety of audio file formats • The iPod photo introduced the ability to display numerous image file formats. • Each time an iPod connects to its host computer, iTunes can synchronize entire music libraries or music playlists either automatically or manually. Song ratings can be set on the iPod and synchronized later to the iTunes library, and vice versa iPod timeline iPod sales • Jan 2007: Apple reported record quarterly earnings of US$7.1 billion, of which 48% was made from iPod sales. • On Apr 9, 2007, it was announced that Apple had sold its one-hundred millionth iPod, making it the biggest selling digital music player of all time. • In April 2007, Apple reported second quarter earnings of US$5.2 billion, of which 32% was made from iPod sales. • Apple and several industry analysts suggest that iPod users are likely to purchase other Apple products such as Mac computers. • On Sep 5, 2007, Apple announced that the iPod had surpassed 110 million units sold. iTunes • playing and organizing digital music and video files • available as a free download • users are able to organize their music into playlists within one or more libraries, edit file information, record CD, copy files, purchase music and videos through its built-in music store, download podcasts, back up songs onto a CD or DVD, encode music into a number of different audio formats. • 2005: support for purchasing and viewing of video content from the iTunes Music Store iTunes Store • opening: Apr 2008, 2003 • Jul 31, 2007: over 3 billion downloads since iTunes was first introduced - more than 80% of worldwide online digital music sales Prices • DRM versions of songs cost $0.99 • DRM-free versions of certain songs are additionally available for US$1.29 • European prices oscillate around €0.99 • Television episodes $1.99 • Feature-length movies $9.99 for older movies, $12.99 for new movies • games $4.99 each Contents • more than 6,000,000 songs • over 20,000 audiobooks • Apr 11, 2007: over 500 movies DRM • Apple's FairPlay digital rights management (DRM) is integrated into iTunes, which manages songs purchased from iTunes Store. iTunes relies on FairPlay to implement two main restrictions: • Users can make a maximum of seven CD copies of any particular playlist containing songs purchased from the iTunes Store. • Users can access their purchased songs on a maximum of five computers. • There are no restrictions on number of iPods to which a purchased song can be transferred nor the number of times any individual song can be burned to CD. iPhone • introduced Jun 29, 2007 in the US, current price is $399 for an 8 GB model • Nov 9, 2007 – UK O2: on the carrier – Germany T-Mobile – Czech Republic: T-mobile • iPhone users must use iTunes to select and purchase a contract tariff before the phone features may be used Technology • the iPhone is manufactured on contract in the Shenzhen factory of the Taiwanese company Hon Hai • Storage: 8 GB flash memory • Quad band GSM • Wi-Fi, EDGE and Bluetooth 2.0 • 2 megapixel camera • more than 300 patents related to the technology behind the iPhone Apple - Mission Statement • Apple ignited the personal computer revolution in the 1970s with the Apple II and reinvented the personal computer in the 1980s with the Macintosh. • Today, Apple continues to lead the industry in innovation with its award-winning computers, OS X operating system and iLife and professional applications. • Apple is also spearheading the digital media revolution with its iPod portable music and video players and iTunes online store, and has entered the mobile phone market this year with its revolutionary iPhone Slogans • Byte into an Apple • iThink, therefore iMac Nanotechnology • technology whose unifying theme is the control of matter on the atomic and molecular level in scales from 1 to 100 nanometers (10-9 m), and the fabrication of devices within that size range • „bottom-up" approach: materials and devices are built from molecular components which assemble themselves chemically by principles of molecular recognition • "top-down" approach: nano-objects are constructed from larger entities without atomic-level control Links How can you explain what is meant by nanotechnology? Nanotechnology: Innovation for tomorrow´s world Applications http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_ of_nanotechnology_applications Potential hazards • Potential for some nanomaterials to be toxic to humans or the environment • The smaller a particle, the greater its surface area to volume ratio and the higher its chemical reactivity and biological activity increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), including free radicals • ROS and free radical production is one of the primary mechanisms of nanoparticle toxicity; it may result in oxidative stress, inflammation, and consequent damage to proteins, membranes and DNA Nano optimists • providing universal clean water supplies • greater agricultural productivity with less labour requirements, nutritionally enhanced interactive ‘smart’ foods • cheap and powerful energy generation • clean and highly efficient manufacturing • radically improved formulation of drugs, diagnostics and organ replacement • much greater information storage and communication capacities • interactive ‘smart’ appliances; and increased human performance through convergent technologies Nano skeptics • nanotechnology will simply exacerbate problems stemming from existing socio-economic inequity and unequal distributions of power, creating greater inequities between rich and poor through an inevitable nano-divide (the gap between those who control the new nanotechnologies and those whose products, services or labour are displaced by them) • nanotechnology has the potential to destabilise international relations through a nano arms race and the increased potential for bioweaponry • might break down the barriers between life and non-life through nanobiotechnology, redefining even what it means to be human Cryptography Digital signatures Benefits of digital signatures • Authentication: When ownership of a digital signature secret key is bound to a specific user, a valid signature shows that the message was sent by that user. The importance of high confidence in sender authenticity is especially obvious in a financial context. For example, suppose a bank's branch office sends instructions to the central office requesting a change in the balance of an account. If the central office is not convinced that such a message is truly sent from an authorized source, acting on such a request could be a grave mistake. Benefits of digital signatures • Integrity: confidence that the message has not been altered during transmission. Although encryption hides the contents of a message, it may be possible to change an encrypted message without understanding it. However, if a message is digitally signed, any change in the message will invalidate the signature. Create keys A big random number is used to make a public-key/private-key pair. Encrypt & decrypt Anyone can encrypt using the public key, but only the holder of the private key can decrypt. Secrecy depends on the secrecy of the private key Sign Using a private key to encrypt (thus signing) a message; anyone can check the signature using the public key. Validity depends on private key security Share symmetric key By combining your own private key with the other user's public key, you can calculate a shared secret that only the two of you know. The shared secret can be used as the key for a symmetric cipher. • Public key encryption — a message encrypted with a recipient's public key cannot be decrypted by anyone except the recipient possessing the corresponding private key. This is used to ensure confidentiality. • Digital signatures — a message signed with a sender's private key can be verified by anyone who has access to the sender's public key, thereby proving that the sender signed it and that the message has not been tampered with. This is used to ensure authenticity. • An analogy for public-key encryption is that of a locked mailbox with a mail slot. The mail slot is exposed and accessible to the public; its location (the street address) is in essence the public key. Anyone knowing the street address can go to the door and drop a written message through the slot; however, only the person who possesses the key can open the mailbox and read the message. • An analogy for digital signatures is the sealing of an envelope with a personal wax seal. The message can be opened by anyone, but the presence of the seal authenticates the sender. • For encryption, the sender encrypts the message with a secret-key algorithm using a randomly generated key, and that random key is then encrypted with the recipient's public key. • For digital signatures, the sender hashes the message (using a cryptographic hash function) and then signs the resulting "hash value". • Before verifying the signature, the recipient also computes the hash of the message, and compares this hash value with the signed hash value to check that the message has not been tampered with. A postal analogy • An analogy which can be used to understand the advantages of an asymmetric system is to imagine two people, Alice and Bob, sending a secret message through the public mail. In this example, Alice wants to send a secret message to Bob, and expects a secret reply from Bob. • With a symmetric key system, Alice first puts the secret message in a box, and locks the box using a padlock to which she has a key. She then sends the box to Bob through regular mail. When Bob receives the box, he uses an identical copy of Alice's key (which he has somehow obtained previously, maybe by a face-to-face meeting) to open the box, and reads the message. Bob can then use the same padlock to send his secret reply. • In an asymmetric key system, Bob and Alice have separate padlocks. First, Alice asks Bob to send his open padlock to her through regular mail, keeping his key to himself. When Alice receives it she uses it to lock a box containing her message, and sends the locked box to Bob. Bob can then unlock the box with his key and read the message from Alice. To reply, Bob must similarly get Alice's open padlock to lock the box before sending it back to her. • The critical advantage in an asymmetric key system is that Bob and Alice never need to send a copy of their keys to each other. This prevents a third party (perhaps, in the example, a corrupt postal worker) from copying a key while it is in transit, allowing to spy on all future messages sent between Alice and Bob. So in the public key scenario, Alice and Bob need not trust the postal service as much. In addition, if Bob were careless and allowed someone else to copy his key, Alice's messages to Bob would be compromised, but Alice's messages to other people would remain secret, since the other people would be providing different padlocks for Alice to use. • all public key / private key cryptosystems depend entirely on keeping the private key secret • store the private key on a smart card Brute force attack • all public-key schemes are susceptible to brute force key search attack • protection: choosing key sizes large enough that the best known attack would take so long that it is not worth any adversary's time and money to break the code • 128 bits is the suggested key length for symmetric codes • 3072 bits is the suggested key length for systems based on factoring • no efficient integer factorization algorithm is publicly known; a recent effort which factored a 200 digit number took eighteen months and used over half a century of computer time. Man in the middle attack • man in the middle attack, in which communication of public keys is intercepted by a third party and modified to provide different public keys instead • certificate authority, a trusted third party who is responsible for verifying the identity of a user of the system and issuing a digital certificate, which is a signed block of data stating that this public key belongs to that person, company or other entity Biotechnology • Biotechnology has contributed towards the exploitation of biological organisms or biological processes through modern techniques, which could be profitably used in medicine, agriculture, animal husbandry and environmental cloning. United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity Disciplines • • • • • genetics molecular biology biochemistry embryology cell biology • the most practical uses: cultivation of plants to produce food suitable to humans, animal breeding • directed use of organisms for the manufacture of organic products (beer and milk products), • early twentieth century: manufacturing specific products – 1917: corn starch – bacterium capable of breaking down crude oil – pharmacy • genetic testing • bioinformatics: rapid organization and analysis of biological data Pharmaceutical products • genetically altered microorganisms for the production of substances like insulin or antibiotics • development of plant-made pharmaceuticals • manufacture existing drugs more easily and cheaply Genetic testing • Can be used to: – Diagnose a disease. – Confirm a diagnosis. – Provide prognostic information about the course of a disease. – Confirm the existence of a disease in individuals. – With varying degrees of accuracy, predict the risk of future disease Genetic testing – current use • Determining sex • Carrier screening, or the identification of unaffected individuals who carry one copy of a gene for a disease that requires two copies for the disease to manifest • Prenatal diagnostic screening • Newborn screening • Presymptomatic testing for predicting adult-onset disorders • Presymptomatic testing for estimating the risk of developing adult-onset cancers • Confirmational diagnosis of symptomatic individuals • Forensic/identity testing Gene therapy • treating, or even curing, genetic and acquired diseases like cancer and AIDS by using normal genes to supplement or replace defective genes or to bolster a normal function such as immunity • somatic gene therapy: the genome of the recipient is changed, but this change is not passed along to the next generation • germline gene therapy: the egg and sperm cells of the parents are changed for the purpose of passing on the changes to their offspring. • June 2001: more than 500 clinical gene-therapy trials involving about 3,500 patients, around 78% in the U.S., 18% in Europe Cloning • Reproductive cloning • Therapeutic cloning • 1997: Dolly Ethical issues • ethic reviews in research project proposals • EU Framework Programme 7 does not allow funding of research activities: – aiming at human cloning for reproductive purposes – intended to modify the genetic heritage of human beings – intended to create human embryos solely for the purpose of research or stem cell procurement Technology to Market: Mobile phone Hygiene factors Design V.Trommsdorff TU Berlin Weight Sound quality Stand-by-Zeit Gesprächszeit Usability Antenne Funkce WAP-tauglich Prestige Purchase Displej Infraport Art des Akkus Readiness Charging timet User-friendly menu Technology factors Market factors Goal Medical Applications • CT Computer Tomography http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_tomography • NMR - Magnetic_resonance_imaging http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_resonance_imagin g • PET - Positron_emission_tomography http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positron_emission_tomograp hy • Lithotripsy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithotripsy • Medical ultrasonography http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultrasound_imaging CT - Computed Tomography Tomography • medical imaging method employing tomography created by computer processing. • tomos (slice) and graphein (to write) • principle - early 1900s Digital processing • Digital geometry processing is used to generate a three-dimensional image of the inside of an object from a large series of twodimensional X-ray images taken around a single axis of rotation. • CT produces a volume of data which can be processed in order to demonstrate various bodily structures based on their ability to block the X-ray/Röntgen beam. • The first commercially viable CT scanner was invented by Sir Godfrey at EMI Central Research Laboratories. Hounsfield conceived his idea in 1967, and it was publicly announced in 1972. • Allan McLeod Cormack of Tufts University in Massachusetts independently invented a similar process • Both Hounsfield and Cormack shared the 1979 Nobel Prize in Medicine. • The original 1971 prototype took 160 parallel readings through 180 angles, each 1° apart, with each scan taking a little over five minutes. The images from these scans took 2.5 hours to be processed • Thanks to the success of The Beatles, EMI could fund research and build early models for medical use. Advantages • completely eliminates the superimposition of images of structures outside the area of interest • because of the inherent high-contrast resolution of CT, differences between tissues that differ in physical density by less than 1% can be distinguished. Finally, data from a single CT imaging procedure can be viewed in different planes, depending on the diagnostic task. Risks • The radiation dose for a particular study depends on multiple factors: volume scanned, patient build, number and type of scan sequences, and desired resolution and image quality • Increased CT usage has led to an overall rise in the total amount of medical radiation used, despite reductions in other areas Typical scan doses Examination Chest X-ray Head CT Screening mammography Abdomen CT Chest CT Chest, Abdomen and Pelvis CT CT colonography (virtual colonoscopy) Cardiac CT angiogram Barium enema Neonatal abdominal CT Typical effective dose (mSv) 0.1 1.5 3 5.3 5.8 9.9 3.6 - 8.8 6.7-13 15 20 the average background exposure is 1-3 mSv per annum NMR – Magnetic resonance imaging • Any nucleus that contains an odd number of protons and/or of neutrons has an intrinsic magnetic moment • The nucleus absorbs energy from the electromagnetic (EM) pulse and radiate this energy back out at a specific resonance frequency This allows the observation of specific quantum mechanical magnetic properties of an atomic nucleus NMR – physical basics • Nuclear magnetic resonance was first described and measured in molecular beams by Isidor Rabi in 1938. • Eight years later, in 1946, Felix Bloch and Edward Mills Purcell refined the technique for use on liquids and solids • Nobel Prize in physics in 1952 Advantages • MRI provides much greater contrast between the different soft tissues of the body than CT does, making it especially useful in neurological, musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, and oncological imaging. • Unlike CT, it uses no ionizing radiation, but uses a powerful magnetic field to align the nuclear magnetization of hydrogen atoms in water in the body History • relatively new technology. • first MR image published in 1973 • first cross-sectional image of a living mouse published in January 1974. • first studies performed on humans published in 1977. • By comparison, the first human X-ray image was taken in 1895. Economics of MRI • MRI equipment is expensive. 1.5 tesla scanners often cost between $1 million and $1.5 million USD. 3.0 tesla scanners often cost between $2 million and $2.3 million USD. Construction of MRI suites can cost up to $500,000 USD, or more, depending on project scope. Potential risks • Pacemakers are generally considered an absolute contraindication towards MRI • Medical or biostimulation implants • Ferromagnetic foreign bodies (e.g. shell fragments), or metallic implants • people with even mild claustrophobia are sometimes unable to tolerate an MRI scan without management • Paul Lauterbur (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) and Sir Peter Mansfield (University of Nottingham) were awarded the 2003 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for their "discoveries concerning magnetic resonance imaging". PET – Positron emission tomography • The system detects pairs of gamma rays emitted indirectly by a positron-emitting radionuclide (tracer), which is introduced into the body on a biologically active molecule. • Images of tracer concentration in 3dimensional space within the body are then reconstructed by computer analysis. Combined scans • In modern scanners, PET is often combined with CT or NMR scan performed on the patient during the same session, in the same machine. • As a result, the physician gets both anatomic and metabolic information (i.e., what the structure is, and what it is doing biochemically). Risks • PET scanning is non-invasive, but it does involve exposure to ionizing radiation. The total dose of radiation is small, however, usually around 11 mSv Lithotripsy • non-invasive treatment of kidney stones and (stones in the gallbladder or in the liver). • Lithotripsy and the lithotriptor were developed in the early 1980s in Germany by Dornier Medizintechnik GmbH (now known as Dornier MedTech Systems GmbH) • came into widespread use with the introduction of the HM-3 lithotriptor in 1983 • The lithotriptor attempts to break up the stone with minimal collateral damage by using an externally-applied, focused, high-intensity acoustic pulse • The successive shock wave pressure pulses result in direct shearing forces, as well as cavitations bubbles surrounding the stone, which fragment the stones into smaller pieces that then can easily pass through the ureters or the cystic duct. • The process takes about an hour. Origins • Dornier's early findings laid the cornerstone for the evolution of metal aircraft. • During research performed in the Dornier aerospace technology division, a previously unexplained phenomenon was discovered. Pitting was occurring on the surface of an aircraft as it approached the sound barrier - a unique phenomenon found to be caused by the shock wave created in front of a droplet of moisture. • This finding, followed by the close collaboration between hospitals and Dornier's development laboratories, resulted in the invention of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy Medical ultrasonography • Diagnostic sonography (ultrasonography) is an ultrasound-based diagnostic imaging technique used to visualize subcutaneous body structures including tendons, muscles, joints, vessels and internal organs for possible pathology or lesions. • Obstetric sonography is commonly used during pregnancy and is widely recognized by the public. There is a plethora of diagnostic and therapeutic applications practiced in medicine. • In physics the term "ultrasound" applies to all acoustic energy with a frequency above human hearing (20 kHz). • Ultrasonic energy was first applied to the human body for medical purposes by Dr. George Ludwig at the Naval Medical Research Institute, Bethesda, Maryland in the late 1940s. Therapeutic applications • Therapeutic applications use ultrasound to bring heat or agitation into the body. Much higher energies are used than in diagnostics • Ultrasound may be used to clean teeth in dental hygiene. • Ultrasound sources may be used to generate regional heating and mechanical changes in biological tissue. • Focused ultrasound may be used to generate highly localized heating to treat cysts and tumors (benign or malignant), treatment is often guided by MRI. • Focused ultrasound may be used to break up kidney stones by lithotripsy. Risks and side-effects • Ultrasonography is generally considered a "safe" imaging modality. However slight detrimental effects have been occasionally observed (see below). Diagnostic ultrasound studies of the fetus are generally considered to be safe during pregnancy. This diagnostic procedure should be performed only when there is a valid medical indication, and the lowest possible ultrasonic exposure setting should be used to gain the necessary diagnostic information under the "as low as reasonably achievable" or ALARA principle. ALARA As Low As Reasonably Achievable Also: ALARP As Low As Reasonably Practicable Providers • Siemens Healthcare – 49,000 employees, sales USD 17.2 billion • GE Healthcare – 46,000 employees, sales USD16.997 billion • Philips - 33,000 employees • Toshiba, Carestream Health, SAP Healthcare
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