Accelerating Growth
Double exponential growth
• There's exponential growth even in the rate of
exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit
cost) doubled every three years between
1910 and 1950, doubled every two years
between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling
every year
• It took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS
(million instructions per second) per thousand
dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand
dollars every day.
• Every point on the exponential growth curves
represents an intense human drama of innovation
and competition. It is remarkable that these chaotic
processes result in such smooth and predictable
exponential trends.
• For example, when the human genome scan started,
critics pointed out that given the speed with which the
genome could then be scanned, it would take
thousands of years to finish the project. Yet the
fifteen year project was nonetheless completed
slightly ahead of schedule.
• Exponential growth in communications
technology has been even more explosive
than in computation and is no less significant
in its implications.
• Again, this progression involves far more than
just shrinking transistors on an integrated
circuit, but includes accelerating advances in
fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic
technologies, and others.
• The following two charts show the
overall growth of the Internet based on
the number of hosts
Wireless communication
• the power is doubling every 10 to 11
• 1973 - Network Voice Protocol introduced
• 1980 - Internet Protocol came into existence
• 1989 - ISDN/Integrated Services Digital Network
came into existence
• 1991 - The first GSM network was launched in 1991
by Radiolinja in Finland.
• 1995 - First VoIP connection
• 2001 - Vonage founded
• 2002 - Skype founded
• December 2006 - Over 8 million concurrent users on
• 2006 - 7% of all international US voice traffic was
sent through Skype
• Virtually all of the economic models taught in economics
classes are fundamentally flawed because they are
based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than
the historically based exponential view.
• The reason that these linear models appear to work for a
while is for the same reason that most people adopt the
intuitive linear view in the first place: exponential trends
appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for a
brief period of time, particularly in the early stages of an
exponential trend when not much is happening.
• But once the "knee of the curve" is achieved and the
exponential growth explodes, the linear models break
• The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has
been growing exponentially throughout this century:
Software Price-Performance
• has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate
• Example: Automatic Speech Recognition Software
$5 000
Vocabulary Size (# words)
10 000
100 000
Continuous Speech?
User Training Required (Minutes)
Diminishing returns - 1
• Diminishing returns (also diminishing marginal
returns, the law of diminishing returns, law of
increasing relative cost, or law of increasing
opportunity cost): in a production system with fixed
and variable inputs (say factory size and labor),
beyond some point, each additional unit of variable
input yields less and less additional output.
Conversely, producing one more unit of output costs
more and more in variable inputs.
• Although ostensibly a purely economic concept,
diminishing marginal returns also implies a
technological relationship. Diminishing marginal
returns states that a firm's short run marginal cost
curve will eventually increase. It is possibly among
the best-known economic "laws."
Diminishing returns - 2
• Suppose that one kilogram (kg) of seed applied to a
plot of land of a fixed size produces one ton of
harvestable crop. You might expect that an additional
kilogram of seed would produce an additional ton of
output. However, if there are diminishing marginal
returns, that additional kilogram will produce less
than one additional ton of harvestable crop (on the
same land, during the same growing season, and
with nothing else but the amount of seeds planted
changing). For example, the second kilogram of seed
may only produce a half ton of extra output.
Diminishing marginal returns also implies that a third
kilogram of seed will produce an additional crop that
is even less than a half ton of additional output.
Assume that it is one quarter of a ton.
Diminishing returns - 3
• A consequence of diminishing marginal
returns is that as total investment increases,
the total return on investment as a proportion
of the total investment (the average product
or return) also decreases. The return from
investing the first kilogram is 1 t/kg. The total
return when 2 kg of seed are invested is 1.5/2
= 0.75 t/kg, while the total return when 3 kg
are invested is 1.75/3 = 0.58 t/kg.
• Ray Kurzweil: The Law of
Accelerating Returns,
• launched in October 2001
• over 110 million units worldwide, as of
September 2007
• iPod can play a variety of audio file
• The iPod photo introduced the ability to
display numerous image file formats.
• Each time an iPod connects to its host
computer, iTunes can synchronize
entire music libraries or music playlists
either automatically or manually. Song
ratings can be set on the iPod and
synchronized later to the iTunes library,
and vice versa
iPod timeline
iPod sales
• Jan 2007: Apple reported record quarterly earnings of
US$7.1 billion, of which 48% was made from iPod
• On Apr 9, 2007, it was announced that Apple had
sold its one-hundred millionth iPod, making it the
biggest selling digital music player of all time.
• In April 2007, Apple reported second quarter
earnings of US$5.2 billion, of which 32% was made
from iPod sales.
• Apple and several industry analysts suggest that iPod
users are likely to purchase other Apple products
such as Mac computers.
• On Sep 5, 2007, Apple announced that the iPod had
surpassed 110 million units sold.
• playing and organizing digital music and video files
• available as a free download
• users are able to organize their music into playlists
within one or more libraries, edit file information,
record CD, copy files, purchase music and videos
through its built-in music store, download podcasts,
back up songs onto a CD or DVD, encode music into
a number of different audio formats.
• 2005: support for purchasing and viewing of video
content from the iTunes Music Store
iTunes Store
• opening: Apr 2008, 2003
• Jul 31, 2007: over 3 billion downloads
since iTunes was first introduced - more
than 80% of worldwide online digital
music sales
• DRM versions of songs cost $0.99
• DRM-free versions of certain songs are
additionally available for US$1.29
• European prices oscillate around €0.99
• Television episodes $1.99
• Feature-length movies $9.99 for older
movies, $12.99 for new movies
• games $4.99 each
• more than 6,000,000 songs
• over 20,000 audiobooks
• Apr 11, 2007: over 500 movies
• Apple's FairPlay digital rights management (DRM) is
integrated into iTunes, which manages songs
purchased from iTunes Store. iTunes relies on
FairPlay to implement two main restrictions:
• Users can make a maximum of seven CD copies of
any particular playlist containing songs purchased
from the iTunes Store.
• Users can access their purchased songs on a
maximum of five computers.
• There are no restrictions on number of iPods to which
a purchased song can be transferred nor the number
of times any individual song can be burned to CD.
• introduced Jun 29, 2007 in the US, current
price is $399 for an 8 GB model
• Nov 9, 2007
– UK O2: on the carrier
– Germany T-Mobile
– Czech Republic: T-mobile
• iPhone users must use iTunes to select and
purchase a contract tariff before the phone
features may be used
• the iPhone is manufactured on contract in the
Shenzhen factory of the Taiwanese company
Hon Hai
• Storage: 8 GB flash memory
• Quad band GSM
• Wi-Fi, EDGE and Bluetooth 2.0
• 2 megapixel camera
• more than 300 patents related to the
technology behind the iPhone
Apple - Mission Statement
• Apple ignited the personal computer revolution in the
1970s with the Apple II and reinvented the personal
computer in the 1980s with the Macintosh.
• Today, Apple continues to lead the industry in
innovation with its award-winning computers, OS X
operating system and iLife and professional
• Apple is also spearheading the digital media
revolution with its iPod portable music and video
players and iTunes online store, and has entered the
mobile phone market this year with its revolutionary
• Byte into an Apple
• iThink, therefore iMac
• technology whose unifying theme is the
control of matter on the atomic and molecular
level in scales from 1 to 100 nanometers (10-9
m), and the fabrication of devices within that
size range
• „bottom-up" approach: materials and devices
are built from molecular components which
assemble themselves chemically by
principles of molecular recognition
• "top-down" approach: nano-objects are
constructed from larger entities without
atomic-level control
How can you explain what is meant by
Nanotechnology: Innovation for
tomorrow´s world
Potential hazards
• Potential for some nanomaterials to be toxic
to humans or the environment
• The smaller a particle, the greater its surface
area to volume ratio and the higher its
chemical reactivity and biological activity 
increased production of reactive oxygen
species (ROS), including free radicals
• ROS and free radical production is one of the
primary mechanisms of nanoparticle toxicity;
it may result in oxidative stress, inflammation,
and consequent damage to proteins,
membranes and DNA
Nano optimists
• providing universal clean water supplies
• greater agricultural productivity with less labour
requirements, nutritionally enhanced interactive
‘smart’ foods
• cheap and powerful energy generation
• clean and highly efficient manufacturing
• radically improved formulation of drugs,
diagnostics and organ replacement
• much greater information storage and
communication capacities
• interactive ‘smart’ appliances; and increased
human performance through convergent
Nano skeptics
• nanotechnology will simply exacerbate problems
stemming from existing socio-economic inequity
and unequal distributions of power, creating
greater inequities between rich and poor through
an inevitable nano-divide (the gap between those
who control the new nanotechnologies and those
whose products, services or labour are displaced
by them)
• nanotechnology has the potential to destabilise
international relations through a nano arms race
and the increased potential for bioweaponry
• might break down the barriers between life and
non-life through nanobiotechnology, redefining
even what it means to be human
Digital signatures
Benefits of digital signatures
• Authentication: When ownership of a digital
signature secret key is bound to a specific user, a
valid signature shows that the message was sent by
that user. The importance of high confidence in
sender authenticity is especially obvious in a financial
context. For example, suppose a bank's branch office
sends instructions to the central office requesting a
change in the balance of an account. If the central
office is not convinced that such a message is truly
sent from an authorized source, acting on such a
request could be a grave mistake.
Benefits of digital signatures
• Integrity: confidence that the message has
not been altered during transmission.
Although encryption hides the contents of a
message, it may be possible to change an
encrypted message without understanding it.
However, if a message is digitally signed, any
change in the message will invalidate the
Create keys
A big random number
is used to make a
Encrypt & decrypt
Anyone can encrypt
using the public key,
but only the holder of
the private key can
decrypt. Secrecy
depends on the
secrecy of the private
Using a private key to
encrypt (thus signing)
a message; anyone
can check the
signature using the
public key. Validity
depends on private
key security
Share symmetric key
By combining your own
private key with the other
user's public key, you can
calculate a shared secret
that only the two of you
know. The shared secret
can be used as the key
for a symmetric cipher.
• Public key encryption — a message
encrypted with a recipient's public key cannot
be decrypted by anyone except the recipient
possessing the corresponding private key.
This is used to ensure confidentiality.
• Digital signatures — a message signed with
a sender's private key can be verified by
anyone who has access to the sender's
public key, thereby proving that the sender
signed it and that the message has not been
tampered with. This is used to ensure
• An analogy for public-key encryption is that of a
locked mailbox with a mail slot. The mail slot is
exposed and accessible to the public; its location (the
street address) is in essence the public key. Anyone
knowing the street address can go to the door and
drop a written message through the slot; however,
only the person who possesses the key can open the
mailbox and read the message.
• An analogy for digital signatures is the sealing of an
envelope with a personal wax seal. The message can
be opened by anyone, but the presence of the seal
authenticates the sender.
• For encryption, the sender encrypts the message
with a secret-key algorithm using a randomly
generated key, and that random key is then
encrypted with the recipient's public key.
• For digital signatures, the sender hashes the
message (using a cryptographic hash function) and
then signs the resulting "hash value".
• Before verifying the signature, the recipient also
computes the hash of the message, and compares
this hash value with the signed hash value to check
that the message has not been tampered with.
A postal analogy
• An analogy which can be used to understand the
advantages of an asymmetric system is to imagine
two people, Alice and Bob, sending a secret
message through the public mail. In this example,
Alice wants to send a secret message to Bob, and
expects a secret reply from Bob.
• With a symmetric key system, Alice first puts the
secret message in a box, and locks the box using a
padlock to which she has a key. She then sends the
box to Bob through regular mail. When Bob receives
the box, he uses an identical copy of Alice's key
(which he has somehow obtained previously, maybe
by a face-to-face meeting) to open the box, and
reads the message. Bob can then use the same
padlock to send his secret reply.
• In an asymmetric key system, Bob and Alice
have separate padlocks. First, Alice asks Bob
to send his open padlock to her through
regular mail, keeping his key to himself.
When Alice receives it she uses it to lock a
box containing her message, and sends the
locked box to Bob. Bob can then unlock the
box with his key and read the message from
Alice. To reply, Bob must similarly get Alice's
open padlock to lock the box before sending
it back to her.
• The critical advantage in an asymmetric key system
is that Bob and Alice never need to send a copy of
their keys to each other. This prevents a third party
(perhaps, in the example, a corrupt postal worker)
from copying a key while it is in transit, allowing to
spy on all future messages sent between Alice and
Bob. So in the public key scenario, Alice and Bob
need not trust the postal service as much. In addition,
if Bob were careless and allowed someone else to
copy his key, Alice's messages to Bob would be
compromised, but Alice's messages to other people
would remain secret, since the other people would be
providing different padlocks for Alice to use.
• all public key / private key
cryptosystems depend entirely on
keeping the private key secret
• store the private key on a smart card
Brute force attack
• all public-key schemes are susceptible to brute force
key search attack
• protection: choosing key sizes large enough that the
best known attack would take so long that it is not
worth any adversary's time and money to break the
• 128 bits is the suggested key length for symmetric
• 3072 bits is the suggested key length for systems
based on factoring
• no efficient integer factorization algorithm is publicly
known; a recent effort which factored a 200 digit
number took eighteen months and used over half a
century of computer time.
Man in the middle attack
• man in the middle attack, in which
communication of public keys is intercepted
by a third party and modified to provide
different public keys instead
• certificate authority, a trusted third party who
is responsible for verifying the identity of a
user of the system and issuing a digital
certificate, which is a signed block of data
stating that this public key belongs to that
person, company or other entity
• Biotechnology has contributed towards
the exploitation of biological organisms or
biological processes through modern
techniques, which could be profitably
used in medicine, agriculture, animal
husbandry and environmental cloning.
United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity
molecular biology
cell biology
• the most practical uses: cultivation of plants to
produce food suitable to humans, animal breeding
• directed use of organisms for the manufacture of
organic products (beer and milk products),
• early twentieth century: manufacturing specific
– 1917: corn starch
– bacterium capable of breaking down crude oil
– pharmacy
• genetic testing
• bioinformatics: rapid organization and analysis of
biological data
Pharmaceutical products
• genetically altered microorganisms for
the production of substances like insulin
or antibiotics
• development of plant-made
• manufacture existing drugs more easily
and cheaply
Genetic testing
• Can be used to:
– Diagnose a disease.
– Confirm a diagnosis.
– Provide prognostic information about the
course of a disease.
– Confirm the existence of a disease in
– With varying degrees of accuracy, predict
the risk of future disease
Genetic testing – current use
• Determining sex
• Carrier screening, or the identification of unaffected
individuals who carry one copy of a gene for a
disease that requires two copies for the disease to
• Prenatal diagnostic screening
• Newborn screening
• Presymptomatic testing for predicting adult-onset
• Presymptomatic testing for estimating the risk of
developing adult-onset cancers
• Confirmational diagnosis of symptomatic individuals
• Forensic/identity testing
Gene therapy
• treating, or even curing, genetic and acquired
diseases like cancer and AIDS by using normal
genes to supplement or replace defective genes or to
bolster a normal function such as immunity
• somatic gene therapy: the genome of the recipient is
changed, but this change is not passed along to the
next generation
• germline gene therapy: the egg and sperm cells of
the parents are changed for the purpose of passing
on the changes to their offspring.
• June 2001: more than 500 clinical gene-therapy trials
involving about 3,500 patients, around 78% in the
U.S., 18% in Europe
• Reproductive cloning
• Therapeutic cloning
• 1997: Dolly
Ethical issues
• ethic reviews in research project proposals
• EU Framework Programme 7 does not allow
funding of research activities:
– aiming at human cloning for reproductive
– intended to modify the genetic heritage of human
– intended to create human embryos solely for the
purpose of research or stem cell procurement
Technology to Market: Mobile phone
Hygiene factors
TU Berlin
Sound quality
Art des Akkus
Charging timet
User-friendly menu
Technology factors
Market factors
Medical Applications
• CT Computer Tomography
• NMR - Magnetic_resonance_imaging
• PET - Positron_emission_tomography
• Lithotripsy -
• Medical ultrasonography
CT - Computed Tomography
• medical imaging method employing
tomography created by computer
• tomos (slice) and graphein (to write)
• principle - early 1900s
Digital processing
• Digital geometry processing is used to
generate a three-dimensional image of the
inside of an object from a large series of twodimensional X-ray images taken around a
single axis of rotation.
• CT produces a volume of data which can be
processed in order to demonstrate various
bodily structures based on their ability to
block the X-ray/Röntgen beam.
• The first commercially viable CT scanner was
invented by Sir Godfrey at EMI Central Research
Laboratories. Hounsfield conceived his idea in 1967,
and it was publicly announced in 1972.
• Allan McLeod Cormack of Tufts University in
Massachusetts independently invented a similar
• Both Hounsfield and Cormack shared the 1979 Nobel
Prize in Medicine.
• The original 1971 prototype took 160 parallel
readings through 180 angles, each 1° apart,
with each scan taking a little over five
minutes. The images from these scans took
2.5 hours to be processed
• Thanks to the success of The Beatles, EMI
could fund research and build early models
for medical use.
• completely eliminates the superimposition of
images of structures outside the area of
• because of the inherent high-contrast
resolution of CT, differences between tissues
that differ in physical density by less than 1%
can be distinguished.
Finally, data from a single CT imaging
procedure can be viewed in different planes,
depending on the diagnostic task.
• The radiation dose for a particular study
depends on multiple factors: volume
scanned, patient build, number and type
of scan sequences, and desired
resolution and image quality
• Increased CT usage has led to an
overall rise in the total amount of
medical radiation used, despite
reductions in other areas
Typical scan doses
Chest X-ray
Head CT
Screening mammography
Abdomen CT
Chest CT
Chest, Abdomen and Pelvis CT
CT colonography (virtual colonoscopy)
Cardiac CT angiogram
Barium enema
Neonatal abdominal CT
Typical effective dose (mSv)
3.6 - 8.8
the average background exposure is 1-3 mSv per annum
NMR – Magnetic resonance imaging
• Any nucleus that contains an odd number of
protons and/or of neutrons has an intrinsic
magnetic moment
• The nucleus absorbs energy from the
electromagnetic (EM) pulse and radiate this
energy back out at a specific resonance
This allows the observation of specific
quantum mechanical magnetic properties of
an atomic nucleus
NMR – physical basics
• Nuclear magnetic resonance was first
described and measured in molecular
beams by Isidor Rabi in 1938.
• Eight years later, in 1946, Felix Bloch
and Edward Mills Purcell refined the
technique for use on liquids and solids
• Nobel Prize in physics in 1952
• MRI provides much greater contrast between
the different soft tissues of the body than CT
does, making it especially useful in
neurological, musculoskeletal,
cardiovascular, and oncological imaging.
• Unlike CT, it uses no ionizing radiation, but
uses a powerful magnetic field to align the
nuclear magnetization of hydrogen atoms in
water in the body
• relatively new technology.
• first MR image published in 1973
• first cross-sectional image of a living
mouse published in January 1974.
• first studies performed on humans
published in 1977.
• By comparison, the first human X-ray
image was taken in 1895.
Economics of MRI
• MRI equipment is expensive. 1.5 tesla
scanners often cost between $1 million
and $1.5 million USD. 3.0 tesla
scanners often cost between $2 million
and $2.3 million USD. Construction of
MRI suites can cost up to $500,000
USD, or more, depending on project
Potential risks
• Pacemakers are generally considered an
absolute contraindication towards MRI
• Medical or biostimulation implants
• Ferromagnetic foreign bodies (e.g. shell
fragments), or metallic implants
• people with even mild claustrophobia are
sometimes unable to tolerate an MRI scan
without management
• Paul Lauterbur (University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign) and Sir Peter
Mansfield (University of Nottingham)
were awarded the 2003 Nobel Prize in
Physiology or Medicine for their
"discoveries concerning magnetic
resonance imaging".
PET – Positron emission tomography
• The system detects pairs of gamma rays
emitted indirectly by a positron-emitting
radionuclide (tracer), which is introduced into
the body on a biologically active molecule.
• Images of tracer concentration in 3dimensional space within the body are then
reconstructed by computer analysis.
Combined scans
• In modern scanners, PET is often
combined with CT or NMR scan
performed on the patient during the
same session, in the same machine.
• As a result, the physician gets both
anatomic and metabolic information
(i.e., what the structure is, and what it is
doing biochemically).
• PET scanning is non-invasive, but it
does involve exposure to ionizing
radiation. The total dose of radiation is
small, however, usually around 11 mSv
• non-invasive treatment of kidney stones and
(stones in the gallbladder or in the liver).
• Lithotripsy and the lithotriptor were
developed in the early 1980s in Germany by
Dornier Medizintechnik GmbH (now known as
Dornier MedTech Systems GmbH)
• came into widespread use with the
introduction of the HM-3 lithotriptor in 1983
• The lithotriptor attempts to break up the stone
with minimal collateral damage by using an
externally-applied, focused, high-intensity
acoustic pulse
• The successive shock wave pressure pulses
result in direct shearing forces, as well as
cavitations bubbles surrounding the stone,
which fragment the stones into smaller pieces
that then can easily pass through the ureters
or the cystic duct.
• The process takes about an hour.
• Dornier's early findings laid the cornerstone for the
evolution of metal aircraft.
• During research performed in the Dornier aerospace
technology division, a previously unexplained
phenomenon was discovered. Pitting was occurring on
the surface of an aircraft as it approached the sound
barrier - a unique phenomenon found to be caused by
the shock wave created in front of a droplet of moisture.
• This finding, followed by the close collaboration between
hospitals and Dornier's development laboratories,
resulted in the invention of extracorporeal shock wave
Medical ultrasonography
• Diagnostic sonography (ultrasonography) is an
ultrasound-based diagnostic imaging technique used
to visualize subcutaneous body structures including
tendons, muscles, joints, vessels and internal organs
for possible pathology or lesions.
• Obstetric sonography is commonly used during
pregnancy and is widely recognized by the public.
There is a plethora of diagnostic and therapeutic
applications practiced in medicine.
• In physics the term "ultrasound" applies to all
acoustic energy with a frequency above human
hearing (20 kHz).
• Ultrasonic energy was first applied to
the human body for medical purposes
by Dr. George Ludwig at the Naval
Medical Research Institute, Bethesda,
Maryland in the late 1940s.
Therapeutic applications
• Therapeutic applications use ultrasound to bring heat or
agitation into the body. Much higher energies are used than in
• Ultrasound may be used to clean teeth in dental hygiene.
• Ultrasound sources may be used to generate regional heating
and mechanical changes in biological tissue.
• Focused ultrasound may be used to generate highly localized
heating to treat cysts and tumors (benign or malignant),
treatment is often guided by MRI.
• Focused ultrasound may be used to break up kidney stones by
Risks and side-effects
• Ultrasonography is generally considered a "safe"
imaging modality. However slight detrimental effects
have been occasionally observed (see below).
Diagnostic ultrasound studies of the fetus are
generally considered to be safe during pregnancy.
This diagnostic procedure should be performed only
when there is a valid medical indication, and the
lowest possible ultrasonic exposure setting should be
used to gain the necessary diagnostic information
under the "as low as reasonably achievable" or
ALARA principle.
As Low As Reasonably
As Low As Reasonably
• Siemens Healthcare – 49,000
employees, sales USD 17.2 billion
• GE Healthcare – 46,000 employees,
sales USD16.997 billion
• Philips - 33,000 employees
• Toshiba, Carestream Health, SAP