栗原氏発表資料 - キヤノングローバル戦略研究所

CIGS Seminar December 13, 2016
In Search of a New Trilateral Dialogue
—CIGS Professor Anthony Saich Seminar—
Introduction/イントロダクション
Toward a “Positive-sum Game” Scheme
on the Political, Economic, and Technological Fronts
—如今日本离不开美国，也离不开中国，反之亦然。
日美中三方应该着力推动三边合作，寻求共赢—
December 13, 2016/2016年12月13日
Jun KURIHARA/栗原潤
(Research Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)/
キヤノングローバル戦略研究所研究主幹)
[email protected]
©2016 Jun KURIHARA
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in
any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of the author.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CIGS.
Slide No. 2
CIGS Seminar December 13, 2016
Today’s Seminar: Program
Opening Remarks, Introduction/開会・イントロダクション
Jun Kurihara (Research Director, CIGS)/栗原潤 (キヤノングローバル戦略研究所研究主幹)
I: Presentation/講演
“Herding Cats: Developing a Common Purpose in Asia without Leadership/
リーダシップを欠く中でのアジアにおける共通目的の確立: 小田原評定の危険性”
Anthony Saich (Distinguished Visiting Scholar, CIGS, Professor, Harvard Kennedy School)/
アンソニー・セイチ (CIGS, Harvard Kennedy School)
II: Discussion/討論 (日本研究者のコメントと講演者の返答)
Tatsuya Nishida (Assoc. Prof., Hiroshima City University)/西田竜也 (広島市立大学准教授)
Kiyoyuki Seguchi (Research Director, CIGS)/瀬口清之 (キヤノングローバル戦略研究所研究主幹)
III: Q&A, Closing Remarks/質疑応答・閉会
Moderator: Jun Kurihara (Research Director, CIGS)/栗原潤 (キヤノングローバル戦略研究所研究主幹)
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)
Slide No. 3
CIGS Seminar December 13, 2016
A Trilateral Dialogue (1): Political Front
Cf. “China's Power: Up for Debate: First China Power Conference”
(Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)), November 29, 2016
“I: China Can Defend Its Sovereignty and Maritime Interests
While Tolerating US Military Presence in Asia”
“FOR”: Mike McDevitt (Rear Admiral (Ret.))
“AGAINST”: Dennis Blair (Admiral (Ret.))
“II: China Seeks to Undermine the Rules-based International System”
“FOR”: Aaron Friedberg (Prof., Princeton Univ.)
“AGAINST”: Zhao Suisheng (赵穗生) (Prof., Univ. of Denver)
“III: China Is Successful at Leveraging Its Economic Might to Promote Its Interests”
“FOR”: David M. Lampton (Chairman, the Asia Foundation)
“AGAINST”: Evan Feigenbaum (Vice Chairman, Paulson Institute, Univ. of Chicago)
“IV: China Faces a Looming Economic Crisis”
“FOR”: Andy Xie (谢国忠) (Director, China Boqi Environmental Science and Technology)
“AGAINST”: David Dollar (Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution)
“V: China Must Undertake Radical Political Reforms in Order to Successfully Transition
into a Modern Economy with a Stable Society and Benevolent Political System”
“FOR”: David Shambaugh (Prof., George Washington Univ.)
“AGAINST”: Daniel A. Bell (Chair Prof., Tsinghua Univ.)
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)
Slide No. 4
CIGS Seminar December 13, 2016
A Trilateral Dialogue (2): Economic Front
Absolute and Relative Strengths of Japan, the United States, and China
in Economic Terms
Nominal GDP (US$ trillion)
25
Relative Size (US=100)
80
H. Nau’s
Myth of America’s Decline (‘90)
70
20
60
United States
15
50
E. Vogel’s
Japan As
Number One
Japan
(‘79)
40
10
30
C. Johnson’s
5
Japan
20
MITI and the Japanese
Miracle (‘82)
China
10
China
0
707274767880828486889092949698 0 2 4 6 8 1012141618
0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18
Note: When it comes to international comparison, economists generally look to GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, while political scientists
generally pay attention to nominal GDP in US dollar terms (because no state can purchase weapons from foreign countries in PPP terms).
Source: International Monetary Fund and World Bank
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)
Slide No. 5
CIGS Seminar December 13, 2016
A Trilateral Dialogue (3): Technological Front
“I: US Export Control Policy toward China”
(Cf. Meijer, Hugo, Trading with the Enemy: The Making of US Export Control Policy toward the
People’s Republic of China (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016))
“II: European Export Control Policy toward China”
(Cf. Wübbeke, Jost and Björn Conrad, “‘Industrie 4.0’: Will German Technology Help
China Catch Up with the West?” (Berlin: Mercator Institut für China Studien, 2015))
“III: Information Control”
(Cf. China’s 2016 Cyber Security Law (网络安全法))
“IV: Robotics”
(Cf. Ray, Jonathan et al., “China’s Industrial and Military Robotics Development,” Prepared on Behalf
of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), (Washington, DC: USCC, 2016))
“V: Space Technology”
(Cf. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), “China’s Space and
Counterspace Programs,” in 2015 Annual Report to Congress (Washington, DC: USCC, 2015))
Jun KURIHARA, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)

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