Doshisha University
ITEC International Forum Report (Academic year 2006)
The Third Floor, Kambaikan, Karasuma Imadegawa, Kamigyo-ku, Kyoto 602-8580
URL: http://www.itec.doshisha-u.jp/
E-mail: [email protected]
Doshisha University
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and Competitiveness (ITEC)
Doshisha University
ITEC International Forum Report
(Academic year 2006)
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and Competitiveness (ITEC)
Doshisha University
ITEC- 革新的研究の拠点
技術経営、経営とガバナンス、競争力、持続可能性とセキュリティ、企業教育
の分野で、質の高い革新的な研究を行い成果を発信していくことが ITEC の目
的です。
ITEC は「革新的企業研究」を行います。これは京都のハイテク企業をはじめ
とする革新的企業の研究と、特にグローバルな視点や比較研究の立場から企業
や企業環境の革新的研究と行うという両方を意味しています。これはまた内容
の点でも方法においても革新的であることを目指した「革新的企業教育」や情
報発信についてのプログラムにも関連しています。
ITEC は、オムロン株式会社からの基金提供を受けて 2003 年に正式発足し、
また同年には文部科学省から 21 世紀 COE プログラムのひとつに採択されま
した。
より詳しい情報は下記ホームページよりご覧いただけます。
http://www.itec.doshisha-u.jp/j/index.html
ITEC - a centre of Innovative research
ITEC conducts and disseminates high quality, innovative research in the areas of
technology management; innovation management and governance;
competitiveness, sustainability and security; and applied business education.
ITEC undertakes 'innovative business research', meaning both research on
innovative businesses, including high tech businesses based in and around
Kyoto, as well as innovative research on business and business environments,
typically from a global or comparative perspective. This is linked to a program
of dissemination and 'innovative business education', which aims to be
innovative both in terms of content and methods.
ITEC was officially launched in 2003, following a generous benefaction from
Omron Corporation. It was recognized by the Ministry of Education, Culture,
Sports, Science and Technology as a 21st Century Centre of Excellence in the
same year.
Published by
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and Competitiveness (ITEC)
Doshisha University
The Third Floor, Kambaikan, Karasuma Imadegawa, Kamigyo-ku, Kyoto 602-8580
同志社大学 技術・企業・国際競争力研究センター （ITEC）
For further information, please visit the ITEC website:
http://www.itec.doshisha-u.jp/index.html
〒602-8580 京都市上京区今出川通烏丸東入 寒梅館３階
URL: http://www.itec.doshisha-u.jp/
E-mail: [email protected]
Te l: 075-251-3779
Fax: 075-251-3139
February 2008
Table of Contents
Preface…………………………………………………………………………………… 2
I.
The 4th ITEC INTERNATIONAL FORUM:
Global Technology Networks : The New Argonauts and High-Tech Clusters in East Asia
1.
2.
3.
4.
Program………………………………………………………………………… 5
List of Participants………………………………………………………………6
Presentations…………………………………………………………………… 7
1) Abstracts
2) Presentation Materials
Scenes………………………………………………………………………… 30
II. The 5th ITEC INTERNATIONAL FORUM:
Automobile Technology Innovation and Diffusion Strategy
- Policy Issues in Japan and China 1.
2.
3.
4.
Program……………………………………………………………………… 35
List of Participants…………………………………………………………… 36
Presentations………………………………………………………………… 37
1) Abstracts
2) Presentation Materials
Scenes………………………………………………………………………… 59
The 6th ITEC / BEIJING INTERNATIONAL FORUM:
Innovating East Asia
III.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Program……………………………………………………………………… 63
List of Participants…………………………………………………………… 66
Presentations………………………………………………………………… 69
1) Abstracts
2) Presentation Materials
Scenes………………………………………………………………………… 99
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
1
Preface
Since its creation in 2003, when Doshisha University’s “Synthetic Research on Technology,
Enterprise and Competitiveness” was selected as a 21st Century Centre of Excellence, ITEC’s
objective has been to address the need for a global, interdisciplinary platform, and demonstrate its
willingness and ability to transform research and education on Technology and Innovative
Management into such a new foundation.
In the academic year 2006 we have chosen the general theme of “Innovating East Asia” to
openly debate the innovation systems in several countries in Asia including Japan. We organized
three international forums to investigate the innovation strategies and policies of our neighboring
countries both at a macro and micro level in Asia, and subsequently explored the implications for
Japan’s technology companies.
First, we discussed global technology networks in the semiconductor industry, and deliberated
how to develop high-tech capability by looking at the Taiwan experiences in comparison to US,
Japan, China and India.
Then we looked at the challenges facing China and its booming economy, and how the latest
developments in environmental and safety technologies for automobile could come to its rescue.
Policies and measures conducive to the diffusion of innovative technology both in China and in
Japan were also discussed.
Finally, we highlighted the contrasts as well as the similarities of Japan and China in their
respective approach to innovation.
Although “national innovation systems” are complex affairs, we hope that such international
debates will inspire and encourage academics, industry practitioners and policy makers to work more
closely together across borders for the benefits of all.
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and Competitiveness (ITEC)
Yoshifumi Nakata, Director-General
2
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Ⅰ. The 4th ITEC INTERNATIONAL FORUM
Global Technology Networks
-The New Argonauts and High-Tech Clusters in East Asia-
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
3
1. Program
The 4th ITEC International Forum explores global technology networks, focusing on the
semiconductor industry. Professor Chintay Shih who connects Taiwan to Silicon Valley, and who
oversaw the spin-offs of the two IC foundries, TSMC and UMC, speaks about the unfolding of this
global narrative in the context of Taiwan. Professor Clair Brown, author of “economic turbulence”,
shares with us her latest findings. The keynote speeches are followed by a panel discussion which
will explore the implications for Japan’s technology companies.
Date ：17th June, 2006 (Sat.) 17:00-20:00
Venue：KMB 203, 2F Kambaikan, Doshisha University
17:00-17:10 OPENING REMARKS
Yoshifumi NAKATA (COE Program Leader, ITEC Director General and Professor Doshisha
Business School)
17:10-18:05 PRESENTATION1・Q&A
Chair：Eiichi YAMAGUCHI (ITEC Deputy Director and Professor, Doshisha Business School)
17:10-17:50：Presentation１
“Taiwan Experience on Developing High-Tech Cluster–Innovation, Entrepreneurship and
Partnership in the Silicon Triangle”
Chintay SHIH (Morris Chang Chair Professor and Dean of the College of Technology Management,
National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan)
17:50-18:05：Q&A
18:05-19:00 PRESENTATION2・Q&A
Chair：D. Hugh WHITTAKER (ITEC Director and Professor, Doshisha Business School)
18:05-18:45：Presentation２
"Developing High-Tech Capability: a comparison of U.S., Japan, Taiwan, China, and India"
Clair BROWN (Professor of Economics and Director, Centre for Work, Technology and Society,
University of California, Berkeley)
18:45-19:00：Q&A
19:00- 19:10
COFFEE BREAK
19:10- 20:00 PANEL DISCUSSION
Chair: Mon-Han TSAI (ITEC Research Fellow and East Asian Program Coordinator)
Panelists：Chintay SHIH, Clair BROWN, Eiichi YAMAGUCHI
Tatsuro ICHIHARA (Director, Kyoto Nanotechnology cluster, ASTEM, Kyoto)
20:00 RECEPTION : Hamac de Paradis, 1F Kambaikan, Doshisha University
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
5
2. List of Participants
Chintay Shih
Dr. Chintay is Morris Chang Chair Professor and Dean of College of Technology Management,
Tsing Hua University, Taiwan, and Special Advisor, Industrial Technology Research Institute, ITRI.
He received his Ph.D., from Princeton University, USA, in 1975. He is Advisor of Executive Yuan
(Cabinet office), Chairman of the Asia Pacific Intellectual Property Association and a member of the
National Infrastructure and Communication Initiative Steering Committee of Executive Yuan. He
was respectively Senior Research Engineer, Burroughs Corp, Engineer, plant Manager, Deputy
General Director, Vice President and general director, ERSO/ITRI, and then Executive Vice
President of ITRI. Between 1993 and the year 2000, professor Shi was Chairman of the Chinese
Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chairman of the Chinese Society for Management of Technology,
Managing director of the Taiwan Electrical and Electronics Manufactures' Association, and
Chairman of the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association.
Clair Brown
Dr. Clair Brown is Professor of Economics and director of the Center for Work, Technology, and
Society at the University of California, Berkeley. Professor Brown has published research on many
aspects of the labor market, including high-tech workers, labor market institutions, firm employment
systems and firm performance, wage determination, and the standard of living. The industries she
has studied include semiconductors, telecommunications, consumer electronics, automobiles, and
high-tech start-ups. Brown heads the human resources group of the Sloan Semiconductor Program at
U.C. Berkeley. Their research has analyzed how the labor market for engineers has been changing,
and how semiconductor companies create and capture value. She is a Visiting Fellow at ITEC,
Doshisha University, Kyoto Japan since 2004.
Tatsuro Ichihara ( Panelist)
Tatsuro Ichihara is Director, at Kyoto Nanotechnology cluster Research Institute at ASTEM
(Advanced Software Technology & Mechatronics Research Institute of Kyoto). He is also President
of Kyoto Shisaku, Japan.
He graduated from Kyoto University; Department of Engineering in March, 1967 and in April of the
same year joined the OMRON Corporation where he became the vice president until 2005.
6
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
3. Presentations
1) Abstracts
Taiwan experience on developing high-tech cluster
- Innovation, entrepreneurship and Partnership in the Silicon Triangle Chintay Shih, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan
In the last 30 years, Taiwan has built a strong manufacturing base for high technology industry.
Its personal computers and IC foundry has a dominate market position in the world. The key factors
of the successful development of high tech industry can be attributed to government policy in R&D
investment through government sponsored Industrial Technology Research Institute and the
establishment of science-based industrial park which attracted the experience returnees and
stimulated the formation of high tech cluster. Taiwan is a late comer in the high-tech development
and has a more than 95% SME industry structure, demonstrated a unique way of forming strategic
alliance among the SME’s and establishing collaborative relationship among the silicon triangle
(referred to Silicon valley, Taiwan and China).
Recently, China with a huge market potential and a base for low cost and efficient manufacturing
is changing the landscape of global ICT industry. The flows of capital, technology, technical
people and trade among the silicon triangle create new challenges for the Taiwanese companies. The
new tasks are how to quickly transform into an innovative knowledge economy and promote
entrepreneurship and search new model of partnership
パートナーシップ
史欽泰：台湾国立清華大学
ここ３０年の間で、台湾はハイテク産業において確固たる製造基盤を築いた。
台湾のパソコンとＩＣファウンドリは世界中で市場を圧倒している。ハイテク産業の発展
における成功への重要な鍵となるのは、政府出資の工業技術研究院や、海外にて経験をつ
んだ技術者を惹きつけ、ハイテククラスターの形成を促している、科学基盤の産業パーク
の設立を通じた、研究開発投資における政府の方針であるといえる。
台湾はハイテク開発においては出遅れたが、中小企業は産業構造の 95 パーセント以上を
占めており、その企業間における戦略的な同盟関係を築き、シリコン産業三大国間で協力
的な関係を築く上で独特のやり方を見せた。近年、巨大な市場力をもつ中国は、低コスト
生産及び高効率な製造力として、世界の ICT 産業においてその勢力地図を変えてきている。
このシリコン産業三大国間における資本、技術、技術者および貿易の流れは台湾の企業
にとって新たな挑戦を創り出している。新たな課題とは、いかに素早く革新的な知識経済
へと転換し、起業家精神を促進し、パートナーシップの新たなモデルを探求できるかとい
うことである。
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
7
Developing High-Tech Capability:
A Comparison of U.S., Japan, Taiwan, China, and India
Clair Brown, University of California Berkeley
In her seminar, Prof Brown reported on her ITEC-COE research conducted with
Dr. Greg Linden. Brown presented an overview of the global semiconductor industry, and noted that
Japan’s global market share fell dramatically in the 1990s and has stagnated at slightly under 30%
since 1998. After Japan’s fab capacity fell in the 1990s, Japanese companies invested heavily in
300mm fabs, and domestic fabs accounted for 24% of global 300mm fab capacity in 2005. Currently
they are facing an oversupply of capacity. Next Brown compared the high-tech capability of Japan,
U.S., Taiwan, China and India. The U.S. remains the global leader in the semiconductor industry
with its excellent university graduate engineering programs, a large pool of experienced engineers,
the largest product market, and the most successful fabless start-ups. Japan also has a large pool of
experienced engineers and a large product market. Japan relies on companies rather than universities
for advanced training of engineers and development of their careers. However Japan has a weak
environment for fabless start-ups and is overly dependent on their domestic market for sales. Taiwan,
with its successful foundries and OEMs, relied on returnees from the U.S. to develop its
semiconductor industry. Now Taiwan plays a key role in the transfer of technology to China, and
Taiwan is second in the number of successful fabless firms. China has relied upon government
subsidies to built fabs and to fund start-ups, and local companies depend on the skills of Taiwanese
engineers and returnees from the U.S. India is the primary destination of U.S. firm’s offshoring of
semiconductor design, and local firms primarily provide design services. The rapid growth in
semiconductor design activities in India has resulted in a shortage of engineering talent and rapidly
rising engineer salaries. Overall Japan companies have been slower to benefit from globalization of
semiconductor activities than U.S. companies, and Japan needs to focus on developing its role in the
integration and development of Asia.
発展するハイテク機能：
米国、日本、台湾、中国、インドの比較
カリフォルニア大学バークレー校 Clair Brown
本セミナーでは、ITEC-COE における Greg Linden 博士との共同研究について報告。
まず、全世界の半導体産業の概観を発表し、日本の世界市場占有率は 1990 年代に劇的に
減少し、1998 年以降は 30％をやや下回ったところで停滞していることに言及。1990 年代、
日本のファブ能力が低下した後、日本企業は 300mm ファブおよび国内ファブに莫大な投資
を行い、2005 年度における世界の 300mm ファブ能力の中で 24％の割合を占めた。現在、
日本は生産能力の供給過剰に直面している。
次に日本、米国、台湾、中国、インドにおけるハイテク機能について比較。工学プログ
ラム出身の優秀な大学出身者、経験豊富な多数のエンジニア、最大の製品市場、そして最
も成功した工場を持たない新規事業を伴って、米国はいまもなお半導体産業において世界
を先導している。日本もまた経験豊富なエンジニアおよび巨大な製品市場を多数抱えてい
るが、エンジニアの高度なトレーニングおよび彼らのキャリアに対して、大学よりもむし
ろ企業に依存している。しかしながら、工場なしの新規事業に対しての環境が不十分であ
り、販売において国内市場に過度に依存しているという欠点を併せ持つ。
IC 製造会社および OEM による成功を収めている台湾は、米国からの帰還者に依存し、自
国の半導体産業を発展させている。現在、台湾は中国への技術譲渡において主要な役割を
果たしており、さらに工場を持たない成功した企業数において第二位の位置を占めている。
中国は、工場を建設して新規事業の資金を政府補助に依存し、地元の企業における人材
は、台湾のエンジニアおよび米国からの帰還者に依存している。
8
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
インドは、米国企業の半導体設計の主要なオフショアリング先であり、地元企業は主に
設計サービスを提供している。インドの半導体設計における急速な成長により、エンジニ
アの人材不足と大幅な給与増という結果をもたらしている。
全体的に日本企業は米国企業に比べて、半導体のグローバル化からの恩恵を受けるまで
に時間がかかり、日本はアジアの統合化および発展における役割に集中していくことが必
要とされるのである。
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
9
2)Presentation Materials
*Materials by presenters who agreed to inclusion in this booklet
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Experience on developing
Taiwan high-tech cluster
- Innovation, entrepreneurship and Partnership
in the Silicon Triangle
Chintay Shih
Morris Chang Chair professor
College of Technology Management
National Tsing Hua University
June 17,2006, Doshisha University
Outline
ν
“Silicon Valley of the East”
♦
♦
♦
ν
Dynamics of Silicon Triangle
♦
ν
Silicon Valley-Taiwan-Shanghai
Challenges of Taiwan ICT Industry
♦
♦
♦
ν
ITRI
Hsin-Chu Science based Industrial Park
SME
Innovation system
Entrepreneurship
Collaboration
Toward knowledge Economy
1
10
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
％
ϖ structure as % of GDP
70
80
60
68.7
1987, peak
Manufacturing
service
58.2
50.7
50
60
服務業
40
46.8
工業
40
25.0
29.5
製造業
22.5
20.0
農業
0
1962
1970
1980
1990
35.2
30
1967,
Manufacturing
over agriculture
28.2
20
ϖ employment
Industry
20
25.5
Agriculture
6.6
10
0
1987
1.7
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
2000 2004
資料來源：主計處國民經濟動向統計季報。
3
Industrial Technology Research Institute
A not-for-profit R&D
institution founded in 1973
ν
To spearhead the development of
emerging high-tech industry
ν
To enhance the competitiveness of
industries in the global market
ν
To create economic value through
innovative technology and R&D
4
ITRI’s role
ν
ITRI play important role as “bridge” and
“partner” for Taiwanese companies
ν
ν
ν
ν
Lead in National R&D projects
Facilitate technological diffusion & spin-off
Talent flow
Ways of Technology Sharing
♦ Spin-off
company
center
♦ Open Lab for technology R&D sharing
♦ Bridging foreign technology and partners
♦ Incubation
5
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
11
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
ITRI’s role
ν
ITRI play important role as “bridge” and
“partner” for Taiwanese companies
ν
ν
ν
ν
Lead in National R&D projects
Facilitate technological diffusion & spin-off
Talent flow
Ways of Technology Sharing
♦ Spin-off
company
♦ Incubation center
♦ Open Lab for technology R&D sharing
♦ Bridging foreign technology and partners
5
ITRI graduates
In HSIP
alumni
( 1973～2004.12) Total : 17,304
Government
Organization
4%
( 1973～ 2002.12) Total : 5,100
Academic
Community
10%
Others 621
12%
back to
school
5%
Precision
Biotechnology
Machinery &
104
Materials 363
2%
7%
Optoelectronic
s 570
11%
Intergrated
Circuits 1968
38%
Computers &
Peripherals
1036
20%
Industry
81%
Telecommunications
507
10%
6
Vitality of SME Business in Taiwan
Firm
New Business Closed Business
54,431
50000
37,239
35,367
20,347
25000
39,347
34,404
34,569
29,921
40,837
44,552
38,596
33,330
22,681
11,909
0
1990
1995
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: MOEA (Mar. 2004)
7
12
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Outline
ν
“Silicon Valley of the East”
♦
♦
♦
ITRI
Hsin-Chu Science based Industrial Park
SME
ν
Dynamics of Silicon Triangle
ν
Challenges of Taiwan ICT Industry
♦
♦
♦
♦
ν
Silicon Valley-Taiwan-Shanghai
Innovation system
Entrepreneurship
Collaboration
Toward knowledge Economy
8
Global Semiconductor Industry
ν
US pioneered the IC industry
♦
ν
80’s
♦
♦
♦
ν
Silicon valley booming in the 70’s
Japan began to penetrate the Memory market
US dominate in Microprocessors
Sematech, MCC
90’s
♦
♦
Korea rose and became major memory player
Taiwan pioneered in Foundry
9
Key Driving Forces
ν
Moore’s law
♦
ν
ν
Asian countries catching up with government
support
Business innovation
♦
♦
ν
Technology advancement improve the performance
of electronics system while bring down the cost
TSMC pioneered pure Foundry model
Stimulate Fabless and dis-integrating the industry
India & China
♦
♦
Cost
talent
10
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
13
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Japanese Semiconductor Industry
ν
MITI-led VLSI Project
♦
ν
Pursue joint venture, technology licensing and
contract production in mid-1990s
♦
♦
ν
Pushed fabrication capacity to 47% in 1985
DRAM price volatile
high cost of fabrication capacity
Restructuring the industry after 2000
♦
♦
Renesas; Integration of Semiconductor Operations
of Hitachi and Mitsubishi
Elpida ; memory operation of NEC + Hitachi
11
Taiwan
ν
ν
ν
ν
Government established ITRI & Science Park
ITRI spin off new industry; UMC,TSMC ….
Science Park attract returnees from Silicon
Valley
95% of the industry is SME
12
ITRI and Taiwan IC Industry
• VIS:ITRI spin-off, 1994
1st 8” Wafer Fab in Taiwan
(US$ 475M, 2004)
• TMC: ITRI spin-off, 1988
1st Mask Company in Taiwan
(US$ 92M, 2004)
• TSMC: ITRI spin-off, 1987
1st 6” Wafer Fab in Taiwan
(US$ 7,659M, 2004)
• Nursing
• Clustering
• Trend setting
• UMC: ITRI spin-off, 1979
1st 4” Wafer Fab in Taiwan
(US$ 3,510M, 2004)
• CMOS technology transferred
from RCA in 1976
Year
1975
1980
1985
1990
13
14
1995
2000
Source : IEK ITIS Project (Jan,2005)
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Share of Semiconductor in the
World Market
％
60
50
40
US
Japan
Europe
Asia (Except Japan)
30
20
10
1
99
20
0
Source: Gartner/Data Quest
97
95
93
91
89
87
85
0
14
Cluster Building: HSIP
Hsinchu’s Science
Based Industrial Park
(HSIP)
369 Companies
100,000 Employees
US $25 Billion Revenue
HSIP is the center of
Taiwan’s Semiconductor
Industry
15
Information Industry in Taiwan
Production value
100
Main products(2004)
78.7
*worldwide
80
US$BN
60
40
20
Notebook
31%
21%
LCD
Monitor
0
Growth
(US$68.4 Bn)
Projector
1% Others
9%
DSC 3%
ODD
5%
2003
2004(e)
2005(f)
18%
20%
15%
14%
Desktop
9%
CDT 5% 3% Motherboard
Monitor Server
♣ Oversea production in China over 70% in 2005
Source：MIC;IEK/ITRI(2004/12)
16
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
15
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Silicon Triangle Dynamics
SV-Taiwan-Shanghai
Cases of IT hardware Industry
& emerging Semiconductor Industry
•Venture Capital
•R&D Center
Final Product
•Returnee
•Assembly &
Manufacturing
•Channels
•Industrial
Cluster
•Investment
•Outsourcing
• OEM/ODM
• Returnee
•Product Development
•Logistic Management
•Social Connection w/China
•Capital Market
•Originality
•Education &
Training
•Key components
•Brands
20
Outline
ν
“Silicon Valley of the East”
♦
♦
♦
ITRI
Hsin-Chu Science based Industrial Park
SME
ν
Dynamics of Silicon Triangle
ν
Challenges of Taiwan ICT Industry
♦
♦
♦
♦
ν
Silicon Valley-Taiwan-Shanghai
Innovation system
Entrepreneurship
Collaboration
Toward knowledge Economy
21
Rise of China & India
ν
In late 80’s, China adapted open-door policy,
FDI was encouraged
♦
ν
ν
ν
Taiwanese businessmen caught “go west” fever
Global trend of “Outsourcing”
China becomes the “World Factory” and “World
Market”
India software capabilities captured the service
outsourcing opportunities
22
16
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
FDI in China
150
100
50
US$B
0
1 995
Signed Amo un t
199 6
1 997
199 8
19 99
9 1.2 8 73.28 5 1.0 0 52.00 41 .2 2
Realized Am ou nt 3 7.5 2 41.73 4 5.2 6 45.46 40 .3 2
ν
20 00
2 00 1
20 02
2 00 3
62 .3 8 6 9.20 82 .7 7 1 15 .07
2 00 4.
1~10
1 19
40 .7 2 4 6.88 52 .7 4 5 3.51 53 .78
Top 7 investing areas up to 2003：
♦
Hong Kong(44.4%), U.S.A(8.8%), Japan(8.3%),
Taiwan(7.3%), Virgin Island(6%), Singapore(4.7), Korea(3.9)
23
Global Market Share of Taiwan’s IT Products
Made outside Taiwan
Made by Taiwan
World Market Share (units)
Made in Taiwan
2003
2004
24
Source: IEK/ITRI (May, 2005)
Foundry Market Share
2002
Singapore
6%
2004
Other
10%
Singapore
7%
Mainland
China
4%
Mainland
China
11%
Taiwan
80%
Other
11%
Taiwan
71%
Source：IC Insights(2005/01)；ITRI/IEK(2005/05)
ϖ
ϖ
China foundry market share has overtaken Singapore’s position.
Taiwanese foundry has been influenced due to the rise of China’s
industry.
25
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
17
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
IC Industry in China
80%
2,500
Packaging & Testing
70%
RMB
Million
Fabrication
2,000
1,500
單
位
：
10
億
0
人
民
幣
Design
60%
Growth Rate
50%
40%
1,000
30%
20%
500
10%
0
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005(e)
2006(f)
2007(f)
2008(f)
2009(f)
ϖ Annual growth will be 30% during 2005 ~ 2009
ϖ IC industry gravity shift from packaging & testing to fabrication and design
Source：CCID(2005/02)；ITRI/IEK(2005/05)
26
Human Resource -1
♦ 1960s~1970s:
ν
ν
♦ 1973s~:
ν
ν
ν
Government effort
ITRI was established in 1973
IC project proposed to Taiwan government
♦ 1980s~:
ν
brain drain
US; Chinese researchers at IBM,Bell
Lab,GE,RCA….
CIE/METS; establish links of Chinese professional
reverse of brain drain
HSIP was established in 1980
returnees from Silicon Valley
27
Human Resource -2
ν
ν
1980~2000; homegrown companies became
the Foundation of HSIP
Spin-off from ITRI;
♦
♦
♦
♦
ν
ν
UMC in 1980
TSMC in 1987
TMC in 1988
VIS in 1994
Returnees continue to come back
Up to 2003; 4,318 returnees working and 119
enterprises established by returnees in
Hsinchu Science Park
28
18
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Social networking
Chinese-American executive, professional
♦ promote cooperation of business and technology
Participants in high-tech development in Taiwan
♦ Monte Jade Science and Technology Association
(玉山)
♦ CASPA for Semiconductor
♦ SVCACA for computer
♦ ………
ν
ν
Repeat the experience in China
ν
30
Connection of Professionals
to Great China
Silicon Valley
TI
Taiwan
Richard Chang, CEO
China (Shanghai)
TSMC
Richard Chang, CEO
SMIC
TSMC
WSMC
(Integrated by TSMC)
Tong Liu, CEO
AMD
Pong Fan, CEO
Jackson Hu, CEO
SiRF
UMC
Ching-Chu Chang, Stanford U. Alumni
VLSI
Min Wu, CEO
ASMC
Hua NEC
HeJian
Winbond
(Integrated by Philips)
Mosel 1983
Vitalic
Merger in 1991
Macronix
1987
Mosel Vitalic
Source：SPRIE, IEK/ITRI (February, 2005)
Nan-Hsiung Tsai, Former CEO
31
GSMC
Outline
ν
“Silicon Valley of the East”
♦
♦
♦
ν
Dynamics of Silicon Triangle
♦
ν
Silicon Valley-Taiwan-Shanghai
Challenges of Taiwan ICT Industry
♦
♦
♦
ν
ITRI
Hsin-Chu Science based Industrial Park
SME
Innovation system
Entrepreneurship
Collaboration
Toward knowledge Economy
32
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
19
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Paradigm shift of Electronic System
ν
ν
ν
ν
Consumer-centric devices provide new growth
opportunity
more integration,connectivity and intelligent of all
electronic devices
Mobility; lighter, smaller, low power consumption
and cheaper
Cell phone, digital camera, PDA, iPod,
DVD…etc.
33
New Design Methodology Needed
DSP
e
Cor
CPU
Core
Ha
IEE
E1
e
ar t
ftw en
So ont
C
39
4
Glue
Logic
M
rd w
a re
Bl
ue
Memory DSP
Core
CPU
Core
I/O
To
oth
IEEE1394
IEEE1394
Driver
BlueTooth RTOS
BlueTooth Driver
I/O
em
or
y
Differentiation
Software
Application
-Specific
Hardware
IP Reuse and Platform-Based Design
34
Cost Pe r D esig n b y Te ch n olog y
$ 25
$ 20
$13M
$ 10
$ 05
$17M
$11M
$ 15
$6M
$9M
$8M
$2M
0 .0 6 5 µ
0 .0 9 µ
0 .1 3 µ
0 .1 5 µ
0 .1 8 µ
0 .2 5 µ
$ 00
0 .3 5 µ
Tot a l D e v e lo p m e n t Cost s
( $M)
Escalating Cost of Chip Design
H ar d w a re Va lid a t ion
D esig n & Ve rif icat ion
Sy nt h e sis + Pla ce & Rou t e
M ask s & W a f ers
Source: Jeremy Wang, 2004 “The Changing Business Model in IC Design House”, FSA
35
20
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
36
Top 15 IC Global Fabless Companies
Company
2004
Rank
2004 Revenue
(Million USD)
2003 Revenue
(Million USD)
Qualcomm
Broadcom
1
3,224
2,466
31%
CDMA Chipset
2
2,401
1,610
49%
Broadcast, DSL, Ethernet, WLAN, VoIP
ATI
3
2,141
1,511
42%
Graphic IC
nVidia
4
2,010
1,823
10%
Graphic IC
SanDisk
5
1,777
1,080
65%
Flash
Xilinx
6
1,589
1,300
22%
FPGA
Marvell
7
1,225
820
49%
Mediatek
8
1,199
1,107
8%
Altera
9
1,016
827
23%
FPGA
Conexant
10
915
633
44%
DSL, WLAN, Network Processor
VIA
11
580
593
-2%
PC Chipset, DVD Chipset, Ethernet
Sunplus
12
567
323
76%
MCU, DVD Chipset, LCD Controller/Driver IC
Qlogic
13
543
516
5%
NovaTek
14
524
317
65%
TFT LCD Driver IC, Digital Visual Processor
Adaptek
15
485
437
11%
Storage Interface
Source：FSA(2005/04)；ITRI/IEK(2005/05)
Growth
Rate 04/03
Product
Ethernet, WLAN, HDD
DVD Chipset
Storage Area Network
37
Nan Kong IC Design R&D Park
Semicondutor
College
Equipment
Vendor
Design
House
EDA Vendor
Design
Serive
Incubation
Center
IP Vendor
Foundry
Office
Open Lab
Test/Package
Office
IC Design
R&D Center
經濟部工業局
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT BUREAU
MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
38
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
21
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Creating Value
Innovation and
R&D Center
Added
Value
Global Logistics
Management Center
High added value
Low substitution
Developing knowledgeintensive services
Manufacturing center for high
value-added products
Helping upgrading of
traditional industries
Innovation Design Manufacture Assembly Logistics Brand
R&D Market Research
Marketing Services
Industrial
Value
Chain
39
Linkage with University Research
• Set up joint research centers with major universities
⇐ Each with a central theme for cooperation, in recognition of
the respective institutional strength
• Sponsor selected projects to combine the best
researchers and facilities
⇐ Year 2004: 310 projects in 41 institutions
40
Univ-Industry relationship
ν
ITRI establish joint Lab @ university in
2001
♦
♦
♦
♦
♦
♦
♦
ν
ITRI Lab@Carnegie-Mellon university
ITRI Lab@台大NTU
ITRI Lab@交大CTU
ITRI Lab@清大THU
ITRI Lab@成大CKU
ITRI Lab@中山SYU
ITRI Lab@中央Central……….
Industry Lab @ ITRI …….
♦
♦
DVD Lab@ITRI
TECO Lab@ITRI
41
22
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Linking Technology to Business Opportunities
IP Business & New Ventures
ν
Secure Top Quality IP
ν
Early-Stage Business Development
ν
IP Pooling & Commercialization
ν
New Venture Creation
ν
Open-Labs & Incubations
42
New Business and Value Creation
through IP Pooling Strategy
ITRIIP
IP
ITRI
IPfrom
from
IP
Others
Others
•IPPooling
Pooling
•IP
•Business
•Business
Development
Development
New
New
Opportunities
Opportunities
• Digital Video IC
• Flat Panel Display
• IC Design
43
Science Parks in Taiwan (1980-)
Software
Software Parks
Hsinchu Science Park(1980)
Semiconductors
CENTRAL TAIWAN
SoC
SoC Parks
Bio-technology
Parks
Parks
SCIENCE PARK(2003)
Nanotechnology
Precision Machinery
Southern Taiwan Science Park(1997)
Opto-electronics
44
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
23
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Taiwan : A system of strategic alliances
Chart 6-1 Taiwan strategic alliances
Matsushita
Altera
(DRAM)
NEC
NKK
Philips
Philips
TSMC
WaferTech
Analog Devices
AMD
ISS
Fujitsu
MIPS
Toshiba
WSMC
MXIC
SMS
HP (PA-RISC)
VLSI
Toshiba
(DRAM)
TSIA
TI
(Micron)
Winbond
ASMI
SST
(flash)
TEEMA
IBM
Symphony Lab
ITRI/
ERSO
Oki
VSC
C-Cube
Microsystems
Nan Ya
Etron
Oki
IBM
MV
Cirrus Logic
Xilinx
ISSI
and others
UMC
UICC
USC
USIC
Utek
Powerchip
(UMAX)
Siemens (Pro
Mos)
Mitsubishi
45
Professor John A. Mathews;
Macquarie Graduate School of Management
Sydney
Emerging model of partnership
Cross Taiwan Strait
COMIP Chip
大唐微電子
TD-SCDMA
Chip
0.18 ∃ μm
Multimedia
Chip
DTV Decoder
Chip
Source: ITRI/IEK(2005/09)
46
M&A
ν
ν
BENQ + Ericson
AU Optronics + Quanta Display
47
24
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Experience on developing Taiwan high-tech cluster
Chintay Shih
Conclusion
ν
Taiwan developed high-tech industry based on
the dynamics of Silicon Triangle
♦
ν
ν
A Strong connection among Taiwan, Shanghai and
Silicon Valley
The rise of Asia has shifted the center of gravity
of global economical activities
Taiwan is moving toward innovation, promoting
entrepreneurship and closely collaboration
between different business sectors and actively
pursue global partnership
48
The END
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
25
Developing High-Tech Capability: A Comparison of US, Japan, Taiwan, China, and India
Clair Brown
Developing High-Tech Capability:
A Comparison of U.S., Japan, Taiwan,
China, and India
How does the high-tech capability of U.S.,
Japan, Taiwan, China, and India compare?
• Six Dimensions
– University system
– Skills of engineers
– Technological capability (local firms, MNCs)
– Infrastructure: government programs and
subsidies, transportation, communications,
science parks, venture funding, housing
– Domestic and regional market
– IP Protection
Clair Brown
Omron Fellow, ITEC, Doshisha Univ
Professor of Economics, UC Berkeley
This research is done with Dr. Greg Linden and is funded by
ITEC-COE at Doshisha University and by the Sloan Foundation.
Overview of Semiconductor Industry
2
Regional Market Shares, 1980-2005
70.0%
• Regional market shares are changing
Japan
US
US ex-Intel
Europe
Asia-Pac
60.0%
– Increase for Intel, TI, Samsung, and TSMC
– Stagnation or decline for most Japanese chip
companies; Toshiba, Elpida, and Sony grew
faster than average in 2005
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
• Higher cost of design and manufacturing
with each technology generation
20.0%
– Higher fixed costs require higher volumes
10.0%
3
Top 10 Semiconductor Vendors by
Revenue, 2005 (US$ millions)
Source:
Gartner
Dataquest
Company
Revenue
Share (%)
Intel (US)
34,590
14.7
Samsung (Korea)
Texas Instr (US)
18,347
10,119
7.8
4.3
Toshiba (Japan)
STMicro (EU)
8,984
8,821
3.8
3.8
Renesas (Japan)
8,291
3.5
Infineon (EU)
Philips (EU)
8,205
5,959
3.5
2.5
Hynix (Korea)
5,723
2.4
NEC (Japan)
5,657
2.4
1980
2001
1987
1989
For
comparison:
SMIC (China)
Chartered (S’pore)
TSMC 2005
revenue:
$8,217m
5
Other Asia
4%
38%
Taiwan 19%
South Korea 12%
Europe, Singapore, China 20%
• Threat of oversupply:
– Each new 300mm fab requires annual revenues of over
$1 billion to be profitable.
7
26
1985
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
4
2005
Revenue Growth (%)
(US$mill) 2004-2005
8,223
7.2
2,822
-19.3
TSMC (Taiwan)
UMC (Taiwan)
• 300mm fabs: global capacity in production or underway
as of Oct 2005
Japan 24%
U.S. 24%
1983
Company
Worldwide Fab Capacity
Japan
38%
20%
1981
Top 10 Foundries by Revenue, 2005
• Shift of fab capacity from U.S. and Japan
to Taiwan and South Korea
U.S.
42%
29%
0.0%
Source:
Gartner
Dataquest,
Jan.2006
1,171
1,132
20.1
2.6
IBM (US)
MagnaChip (Korea)
832
396
-2.1
10.0
Vanguard (Taiwan)
DongbuAnam (Korea)
354
347
-9.8
4.2
Hua Hong NEC (China)
Jazz (US)
305
210
-5.7
-4.5
Top 10 Fabless Companies, 2004
(53% of fabless market)
Company (Location)
2004 Revenue
($M)
Share of
Fabless Rev
Qualcomm (US)
Broadcom (US)
$3,224.0
$2,400.6
9.8%
7.3%
ATI (Canada)
$2,140.9
6.5%
Nvidia (US)
SanDisk (US)
$2,010.0
$1,777.1
6.1%
5.4%
Xilinx (US)
MediaTek (Taiwan)
$1,588.7
$1,252.5
4.8%
3.8%
Marvell Semi (US)
$1,224.6
3.7%
Altera (US)
Conexant (US)
$1,016.4
$914.6
3.1%
2.8%
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
6
Developing High-Tech Capability: A Comparison of US, Japan, Taiwan, China, and India
Clair Brown
Each Technology Generation
Has Higher Fixed Costs
U.S., Taiwan are Fabless Leaders
Total Fabless Revenue in 2004: $33 billion
• Geographic breakdown for Q4 2004:
• Increased cost of plant and equipment
• A new semiconductor fab costs US$ 3 billion
• U.S.:
69%
• Taiwan: 20%
• Canada: 6%
• Europe: 3%
• Japan:
2%
• Increased cost of semiconductor designs
• More functions per chip
• Design automation hasn’t kept pace with
Moore’s Law
• A typical 130nm chip design costs up to
US$10 million, which requires sales of about
$100 million to break even.
10
9
Pressures on Chip Design
Design Outsourcing Market
• Market demands complex “systems-on-achip” and reference designs
• Total design outsourcing estimated at
$2.5B (2004), about 10% of design market
• Growth in consumer electronics and
emerging economies are very price sensitive
• These forces have spurred design offshoring
and outsourcing to India and China
– lowers labor costs
– improves access to growing Asian markets
– Much outsourcing takes place in U.S.
– Top three suppliers of design services
worldwide are U.S. EDA firms
• Growth of design services abroad,
especially in Taiwan and India
– Taiwan and India design are in the $500
million range
11
Costs of Design Offshoring
12
Protection of Intellectual Property
• Need to codify/specify task requirements
more precisely
• Extra controls over intellectual property
• Management costs: especially recruitment,
training, monitoring, travel, communications
– communications across time zones/cultures
difficult and costly for MNCs
– projects often late and require strict monitoring
• Reduced productivity and/or slower time to
market, which increase risk
• Core technology must be protected and
remain focus of company R&D
• Development of core technology must be
done at home
– Other design and manufacturing activities can be
located in low-cost countries
– Cannot rely upon legal protection of IP globally
• Training of workers in IP management
provides important protection
13
Country Profiles
14
Chip Designers and IP Protection
• Multiple dimensions must be used to
compare capabilities across countries
U.S.
Japan
Taiwan
China
India
• Strengths and weaknesses differ across
countries and create potential
complementarities
• Engineering talent is heterogeneous and
country comparisons are tricky
15
Design Eng
# of chip
IP protection
Salary (ann.)
designers
(World Econ Forum)
$ 90,000
$ 60,000
$ 30,000
$ 10,000
$ 15,000
45,000
-14,000
5,000
5,000
8.7
6.2
6.7
4.0
4.2
Note: Salary for design engineers with 5 to 10 years in US
and Japan, and 3 to 5 years in China and India. Salary
growth with experience much slower in US than in Asia.16
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
27
Developing High-Tech Capability: A Comparison of US, Japan, Taiwan, China, and India
Clair Brown
S&E PhDs in the US by Country of Origin
Higher Education
3500
Academic Ranking of World Universities
Universities
in Top 100
U.S.
Japan
Taiwan
China*
India*
Universities
in Top 500
53
5
0
0
0
Engineer BS
diplomas (2001)
168
34
5
13
3
110,000
110,000
36,000
220,000
100,000
* The number of graduates in China has been increasing rapidly.
According to McKinsey, only 10% of Chinese and 25% of India
engineers are suitable for global outsourcing market.
2500
2000
China, incl. Hong Kong
Korea
India
Taiwan
Japan
1500
1000
500
17
ISSCC Paper Acceptances and Rejections
by Country, 2001-2006
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2005-2006
250
2003-2004
200
2000
2001
2002
18
2003
High-Tech Capability: U.S.
2001-2002
– best graduate engineering education
– large pool of experienced engineers
– large product market (both chip users and end
customers)
– home to the most successful fabless start-ups
Avg. Annual Rejections
Avg. Annual Acceptances
150
• Weaknesses
100
50
US
JAPAN
KOREA TAIWAN
CHINA
INDIA
The acceptance rate fell from 53% to 38% and the
number of acceptances grew 54% over the period
19
– older engineers may experience career problems
– high labor market mobility may cause problems for
firms and workers
– pressures for short-run financial performance may
undermine investment in R&D
20
High-Tech Capabilities
High-Tech Capability: Japan
• Taiwan
– Second to U.S. in successful fabless firms
– Mostly fast followers and low-cost redesign
– Critical for transferring technology to China
• Strengths
– career development of engineers within major
companies
– large pool of experienced engineers
– large product market (both chip users and end
customers)
• China
– Government subsidies
– Local system firms, fabs, and active start-up sector
– Skill transfer from returnees from U.S. and Taiwan
• Weaknesses
– weak environment for fabless start-ups
– overly dependent on domestic market
– fast build-up of fab capacity without known demand
21
Close-up on Taiwan
• India
– Strong software skills and use of English
– Leading in MNC offshoring, especially from US
– Local firms predominantly in design services
22
Close-up on China
• Successful foundries and OEMs
– Role of government decreased
• Graduate training has improved dramatically
– Reduction in engineers educated abroad
– Role of returnees reduced
• Supportive environment for start-ups, but
innovation lags U.S.
• Synergy with development of high-tech
industries and markets in China
– Quality of engineering graduates highly variable
• graduate courses in chip design in early stage
– Best design being done by local system firms and
a few world-class start-ups headed by U.S.
returnees
– Local system firms provide a sizable market for
local fabless start-ups
– Hundreds of fabless start-ups funded by
government without well-developed business plan
– Weak IP protection
23
28
1999
• Strengths
300
0
3000
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
24
Developing High-Tech Capability: A Comparison of US, Japan, Taiwan, China, and India
Clair Brown
Close-up on India
Future of High Tech: U.S.
– Shortage of engineering talent
• quality of engineering graduates highly variable
• lack of high-quality graduate education outside
leading universities
• wages rise rapidly with experience
• few engineers can manage the entire product
cycle
– MNCs attract best engineers, which slows diffusion
to local firms
– fewer returnees from US than in China
– weak infrastructure (roads, energy, housing,
schooling) constrains growth and raises living costs
25
– communications across time zones/cultures difficult
Future of High Tech: Japan
• Lessons so far:
– U.S. industries benefit from globalization (lower
costs, expanding markets, large talent pool)
– Synergy from brain circulation and role of
universities
– Role of start-ups critical in innovation
• Outlook:
– Low savings rate weakens economy and
investment
– Rapid growth of emerging markets may
undermine global leadership of U.S. companies
26
Future of High Tech: Taiwan
• Lessons so far:
– Japanese industries have been slower to benefit
from globalization of engineering
(language/cultural barriers)
– Reliance of suppliers on domestic market
constrained growth during lost decade
– Alliances and networks used well in innovation
process
• Outlook:
– Economic upturn provides opportunity to build
environment for start-ups
– Japan must play key role in regional integration
27
and development
Future of High Tech: China and India
•
Lessons so far:
– Offshoring is an important step in the integration
of China and India into the global economy
– China and India appear to be pursuing different
roles vis-à-vis the US, with China as competitor
and India as complementor.
• Outlook
– China and India will play an increasingly
important role in high-tech industries, both as
markets and suppliers
– Held back by education, financial, and political
systems and IP protection
• Lessons so far:
– Role of government and returnees critical in early
stages of industrial development
– High returns to well-executed fast follower model
with competition on cost and well-trained workers
• Outlook:
– Start-ups may not develop leading-edge technology
with sustainable returns
– Follower strategy of OEMs and ODMs may
constrain moving up technology curve
– Universities must play vital role in future innovation
28
process
Engineer Labor Markets
• China and India: two-tiered market
– Returnees and graduates of elite universities
find good jobs with growing salaries in both
China (start-ups and MNCs) and India
(MNCs)
– Graduates of less-prestigious colleges find
fewer job opportunities and lower salaries.
• US and Japan: shrinking rewards?
– Need to find new ways to reward existing
engineers and attract new entrants
29
30
Conclusion
Three Lessons
1. Each country has strengths and
weaknesses, and no one model will
dominate the future.
Thank you
2. A strong national economy is critical for
investment and future growth, and a country
is hampered by bad economic policies.
•
A transparent and globally-integrated financial
system is necessary for private investment.
I look forward to your comments
and questions.
3. A strong university system with state-of-theart graduate training is critical for innovation.
31
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
29
4. Scenes
30
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
31
Ⅱ. The 5th ITEC INTERNATIONAL FORUM
Automobile Technology Innovation and Diffusion Strategy
-Policy Issues in Japan and China-
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
33
1. Program
Our society has yet to come up with fundamental solutions to tackle the problems of traffic
accident, environmental pollution, traffic congestion that automobile, along with its convenience,
has generated since the latter half of the 20th century. Innovative technologies such as ITS
(Intelligent Transport Systems) as a traffic system in conjunction with combustion technologies of
hybrid engines and fuel cells have been the focus of attention as a possible alternative to these
problems in recent years. The forum will introduce the latest developments in environmental and
safety technologies for automobile, in addition, policies and measures conducive to the diffusion of
these recent improvements in both Japan and China will be deliberated.
Date ：28th October, 2006 (Sat.) 16:00-19:15 (followed by reception)
Venue ：Meeting Room A, B1F Kambaikan, Doshisha University
16:00-16:05 OPENING REMARKS
Harukiyo HASEGAWA (Professor Doshisha Business School, ITEC Research Fellow)
16:05-16:45 PRESENTATION・Q&A
Eishi OHNO (Project General Manager, Environmental Affairs Div.,Toyota Motor Corp.)
＊Automotive New Technologies for Environment and Safety
16:45-17:25 PRESENTATION・Q&A
Lin SUN (Associate Professor, Shanghai Academy of Social Science)
＊Traffic Accident and Environmental Issues in China－Current Situation and Problems
Related to Policy Implementation in New Technologies Diffusion
17:25- 17:40
COFFEE BREAK
17:40- 18:30 PRESENTATION・Q&A
＊ Traffic Accident and Environmental Issues in Japan-Current Situation and Problems Related to
Policy Implementation in New Technologies Diffusion
① Policies concerning ITS
Hiroaki MIYOSHI (COE Fellow, ITEC Assistant director)
② Cost-effectiveness of vehicle safety regulation
Masayoshi TANISHITA (COE visiting fellow, Associate Professor, Chuo University)
③ The Effect of Automobile Tax System Revision
Akane TOKOO (Senior Researcher, Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization)
Yuko AKUNE (Deputy Senior Researcher, Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization)
18:30- 19:15 PANEL DISCUSSION
Chaired by Masayuki SANO (President, Libertas Consulting Co., Ltd.)
19:20 RECEPTION : Hamac de Paradis, 1F Kambaikan, Doshisha University
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
35
2. List of Participants
Eishi Ohno, project general manager, Environmental Affairs division. Toyota Motor Corporation
大野 栄嗣（トヨタ自動車株式会社 環境部担当部長）
1949 年東京生まれ。1974 年早稲田大学大学院理工学研究科修士卒業。トヨタ自動車㈱東
富士研究所において主にエンジンの研究開発に従事。米国駐在を含む多くの部署を経験。
ＦＰ部部長として、ｺﾝﾋﾟｭｰﾀ技術、バイオ技術、飛行機技術、自動運転技術などの研究・開
発を指揮。2003 年より現職。
Lin Sun, Associate Professor, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences
孫 林（上海社会科学院副研究員/同志社ビジネススクール客員助教授）
1984 年中国南京理工大学工学部卒業。2000 年名古屋大学で博士号（国際開発）を取得。
名古屋市立大学付属経済研究所特別研究員を経て、2002 年から上海社会科学院の副研究員。
マクロ経済、自動車産業、エネルギー、環境に関するモデル政策分析研究に従事。専門分
野は数量経済学、地域経済、CGE モデル分析。
Hiroaki Miyoshi, ITEC Research Fellow, Doshisha University
三好 博昭（同志社大学 ITEC 専任フェロー）
1983 年同志社大学経済学部卒業。1999 年大阪大学で博士号（国際公共政策）を取得。民
間シンクタンクの主任研究員として、長年、調査研究活動、政策提言活動に従事し、2003
年より ITEC COE フェロー。専門分野は公共経済学、交通経済学、自動車産業論。
Masayoshi Tanishita, ITEC Visiting Fellow, Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering,
Chuo university
谷下 雅義（中央大学理工学部准教授/ITEC 客員フェロー）
1992 年東京大学大学院工学系研究科博士課程中途退学。1995 年東京大学にて博士（工学）
を取得。東京大学助手・専任講師を経て，現在，中央大学助教授。専門分野は都市工学。
Tokoo Akane: Researcher, Gendai bunka kenkyujo
床尾 あかね（㈱現代文化研究所主任研究員）
1992 年、信州大学大学院人文科学研究科終了（社会心理学専攻）、現代文化研究所に入社。
国内外の自動車需要予測を中心に、経済、人口、社会環境変化等の短期、中長期予測を行
うと共に、企業のマーケティング戦略の立案等に従事の後、2005 年 4 月より交通政策・安
全領域にて、都市交通計画、交通事故分析等を担当。
Yuko Akune: Researcher, Gendai bunka kenkyujo
阿久根 優子（㈱現代文化研究所主事研究員）
2003 年筑波大学で博士号(学術)を取得。2003 年より現職。専門分野は、応用計量経済学、
地域経済学。
Masayuki Sano: President, Libertas Consulting Co., Ltd.
佐野 雅之（株式会社リベルタス・コンサルティング代表取締役社長）
1977 年東京大学理学部地球物理学科卒業。民間シンクタンクにおいて、主に、エネルギ
ー・環境・資源分野の調査研究に従事。特に、自動車を取り巻く環境問題に永年取り組む。
2005 年に独立し(株)リベルタス・コンサルティングを設立。2006 年より ITEC COE 客員フ
ェロー。専門分野は環境科学。
36
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
3. Presentations
1) Abstracts
大野 栄嗣 Eishi OHNO
＊講演タイトル：自動車の環境・安全技術の最前線
Title : Clean Cars and Safety Features- Newest developments
＊講演要旨 : Abstract
トヨタ自動車の例を中心に、自動車における最新の環境・安全技術を紹介する。同時に、
これら技術の課題や将来性などについて言及する。環境技術では、中心が排気ガス対策か
ら省エネ技術にシフトしている。クリーンエネルギー車の評価には、LCA が不可欠となっ
てくる。衝突安全対策から始まった安全技術は、次第に総合的安全確保の方向に向かいつ
つある。
We introduce the latest technology related to environmental and safety features in the automobile
industry focusing on the case of Toyota Motor. We will discuss both the problems and prospects
related to this technology. We note that in terms of environmental technology, the center shifts from
exhaust emission reduction technology to energy-saving technology. In terms of evaluation of
Clean-Energy Vehicles, LCA becomes indispensable. Technology focused on safety, that originally
started with crash safety measures is now heading gradually in the direction of including all aspects
of security.
孫 林 Sun LIN
＊講演タイトル：中国における交通事故･環境問題の現状と新技術普及のための政策的課題
Title: Traffic accident and environmental issues in China-Current situation and problems related to
implementation of policy to spread new technologies
＊講演要旨 : Abstract
中国では、経済成長に伴って大都会で急速に自動車が普及しつつある。同時に自動車燃
料需要の急増、排気ガスによる大気質の低下、交通渋滞の恒常化と交通事故の多発といっ
たマイナス現象が起こっている。講演では、これらの問題の現状と解決方法を巡り、中国
政府の行動、規制と奨励などの政策、特にハイブリッドエンジン・燃料電池などの環境技
術や ITS の普及に関する中国政府の対応について議論する。また中国における燃費規制、
補助金政策の有効性に関する実証分析結果を紹介する。
Cars are spreading rapidly in metropolitan area in China following the economic growth. We
observe a combination of serious air pollution problem, a rapid increase of energy demand, vehicle
exhaust emission and traffic jams; a critical phenomenon aggravated by frequent traffic accidents.
We will look at the Chinese government action and response in terms of policies to spread new
technologies, regulation and incentive, etc. We will especially look at "clean technology "such as
hybrid engines and fuel cells and ITS in regard to the current state and the method proposed to tackle
the above problems. We will also introduce the positive result of the Chinese subsidy policy and the
efficient fuel tax regulation.
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
37
日本における交通事故・環境問題の現状と新技術普及のための政策的課題
Traffic accident and environmental issues in Japan-Current situation and problems related to
implementation of policy to spread new technologies:
① 三好 博昭 Hiroaki MIYOSHI
＊講演タイトル：ITS 関連政策について
Title
: Policy related to ITS
＊講演要旨 : Abstract
ITS サービスをネットワーク外部性の符合に応じて３タイプに分類するとともに、それぞ
れのタイプについて、最適普及水準を達成するために必要な政府の政策について議論する。
特に重要な報告内容は、政府が目標普及水準を人々にアナウンスすることによって、最適
普及水準の動学的安定性を高めるのみならず、最適普及水準を達成するために必要な税 /
補助金額をコントロールできるという点である。
We will classify Intelligent Transport Systems into three types based on network externalities
and discuss public policies required to achieve the optimal penetration level Some key results are as
follows: For some of Intelligent Transport Systems, dynamic stability is not always assured at the
optimal penetration level. However, it might be possible for government to enhance the dynamic
stability and control the amount of Pigouvian taxes/subsidies required to achieve the optimal
penetration level by setting the target penetration level.
② 谷下 雅義 Masayoshi TANISHITA
＊講演タイトル：安全関連規制の費用対効果
Title: Policy related to safety
＊講演要旨 : Abstract
わが国の交通安全規制，特にボディ，シートベルト，エアバッグといったパッシブセー
フティ技術についての費用と効果について検討した結果を報告する．規制に関連する特許
数，部品価格，車両重量の推移を整理するとともに，効果として新車における台当り死傷
者率を推定した．死者数は減少しているが事故件数，死傷者数は増加していることもあり，
費用対効果は高くなく，今後，事故自体を減らすアクティブセーフティ技術の進展が重要
であることを述べる．
We will examine the cost and effects of "passive safety technology" such as the traffic safety
regulation instituted by our country, especially, seat belts, and air bags. We will look at the number
of related patents, the price of parts, and unloaded vehicle weight and how it affects the rate of
casualties in each case in new car. We will see that the number of accident can increase but the death
toll decrease, and show cost-effectiveness of the “active safety technology” resulting in a substantial
decrease of the number of accidents in the future.
③ 床尾 あかね／阿久根 優子 Tokoo AKANE / Yuko AKUNE
＊講演タイトル：自動車税制改定の効果
Title: An adequate Tax system for Automobile
＊講演要旨 : Abstract
自動車関連諸税の税体系の改訂が、自動車の取得・保有・走行行動、家計の経済厚生水
準、自動車の CO2 排出量、さらには、技術革新の成果を体化した新車の早期市場浸透に如
何に寄与するか等について、現在開発中の㈱現代文化研究所『自動車税制評価モデル』を
利用したシミュレーション結果を報告する。シミュレーションの結果、自動車税制の税体
系を走行段階にシフトさせることによって、家計の経済厚生水準は上昇し、物流コストは
低下する。さらに新技術を付与された新車の普及が早まること等により CO2 排出量が抑制
されることがわかった。
38
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
We will report on the effect analysis of automobile tax system revision using the
simulation model that we developed and conducted at Gendai Advanced Studies
Research Organization. We will make a comprehensive assessment of the effects from
automobile tax system revision mainly from the following three variables: Consumer’s
utility, Physical distribution cost, and CO2 emission. The shift from purchase and
possession to usage in the automobile tax system has effect on increasing utility,
reduction of carbon-dioxide emissions and decreasing the physical distribution cost.
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
39
2) Presentation Materials
*Materials by presenters who agreed to inclusion in this booklet.
Automotive New Technologies for Environment and Safety
Eishi OHNO
１
80
Automotive New Technologies
for Energy Saving
2
Forecast of Global CO2
from Automobiles
billions ton
World Energy Outlook 2002：OECD
60
Asia
40
Former Soviet U.
China
CO2
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Europe exc.ＯＥＣＤ
20
1010-2828-2006
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
Environmental Affairs Div.
EISHI OHNO
Europe ＯＥＣＤ
Pacific ＯＥＣＤ
N. America
0
90
92
94
96
98
00 10
20 30
28％ increased during past 10 years (1990～2000).
Anticipated more than 20% increase every 10 years.
3
2010 Japanese Fuel Economy
Standards for GasolineGasoline-Cars
4
An Example of Successful Fuel Economy
Improvement on A Gasoline Car
10/15 Mode Fuel Economy km/l
ガソリン乗用車2010年度燃費基準（95年比22.8％向上）
Fuel Economy Std.
Km/l
25
20
TOYOTA has achieved
in all classes
21.2
18.8
17.9
15
16.0
13.0
10.5
8.9
10
7.8
6.4
5
0
～702
702～ 828～ 1016～ 1266～ 1516～ 1766～ 2016～ 2266～
827
2265
1015
1265
1515
1765
2015
Car Weight
kg
30
Starlet/Vitz（1.3 ｌittle×AT or CVT）
25.5
Idling Stop
25
New Engine
Super CVT
VVTi
Super ECT
20
７０％
improved
15.0
15
２ ⇒ ４ Valves
10
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04 (年)
Year
History of Gasoline Engine Technologies
5
Next Generation Gasoline Engines
6
Engine Performance - Maximize
Fuel
Direct Injection
• Knock Free Combustion
• Turbocharging
InIn-VVT
Low Friction
4-valve
DOHC
El. Fuel
Injection
Lean Burn
O2 Sensor
Emissions
3-way
Catalyst
Carburetor
Zero
40
Power
InIn-Ex
VVT
• Fuel Flexibility
• Hydrogen application
Fuel Consumption
Emissions
- Minimize
• High Efficiency
¬ Three-way Catalyst
¬ Lean NOx Catalyst
• Quick Warm Up
• Combustion Improvement
Noise/Vibration
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Fuel Consumption
•
•
•
•
•
•
Downsizing
High Compression Ratio
Variable Valve Actuation
Next generation DI
Lean Burn
Low Friction Component
Weight / Compactness
• Downsizing
• Light Weight Materials
Cost
Automotive New Technologies for Environment and Safety
Eishi OHNO
７
Vehicle Weight Reduction
８
D-CAT: Diesel-Clean Advanced Technology
DPNR Path
HCCI Path
EM* Path
アルミニウム : シリンダブロック,
シリンダブロック,
マグネシウム:
マグネシウム: シリンダヘッドカバー,
シリンダヘッドカバー,
ラジエータ,
ラジエータ,
ステアリングホイールコア,
ステアリングホイールコア,
サスペンションメンバー
ディスクホイール
Euro 4
0.02
DPR
DPNR Catalyst
プラスチック
燃料タンク :
重量 -27%
0.01
SI
SULEV
0
0
NSR Catalyst
プラスチック
インテークマニホールド :
重量 -25%
EM *
Vehicles
Base
I
C
HC
R
PN
D
0.1
0.2
NOx
NOx (g/km)
(g/km)
ディーゼル低エミッション化コンセプト
NSR Catalyst : NOx吸蔵還元触媒
DPNR Catalyst: Diesel Particulate NOx 低減触媒
９
DPR
PM (g/km)
プラスチック :
インテークマニホールド,
インテークマニホールド,
バンパー,
バンパー,
プロペラシャフト,
プロペラシャフト,
燃料タンク
EM* : Engine Modification
Low Compression Ratio
+ Large EGR Cooler
Penetrations of Clean Energy
Vehicles in Japan
10
Clean
Clean Energy
Energy Cars
Cars
11
12
Electric Vehicles
Energy Storage is the Key
RAV4EV
車両重量
駆動用
種類
モーター 最高出力
1500kg
同期型
・EV
50 kw
駆動電池
ニッケル水素電池
215km
最高速度
・NGV： Compressed Natural Gas
永久磁石式・
一充電走行距離
（10・15モード走行）
for Clean Energy Vehicles
5名
: Battery
・Idling Stop Vehicle:Battery
・Fuel Cell Vehicle:Compressed Hydrogen Gas
125km/h
e-com
Advantages
Rear electric motor
Battery
Petrol engine
Power split device
14
• Hybrid Vehicle has advantages to recover and minimize energy loss
• 50% reduction of CO2 and improved fuel efficiency can be achieved
① Fuel Economy ② Performance
③ Low Emission ④ Quiet
Generator
The Reasons Why Hybrid Reduces CO2
13
Hybrid Vehicles
Power
control
unit
Reduction gear
Front electric motor
Toyota Hybrid System–ll
(THS(THS-II) for VV-6 SUV
Index of CO2 Emission (%)
乗車定員
100
Engine
improvement
EV driving etc
Idle stop
Regeneration
Advantages of
hybrid vehicle
50
0
Conv.
Gasoline AT
City Mode
Vehicle: Prius class
Conv.
Gasoline
Diesel AT Hybrid Vehicle
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
41
Automotive New Technologies for Environment and Safety
Eishi OHNO
16
TOYOTA’
TOYOTA’S Fuel Cell Tech.
“PlugPlug-In Hybrid”
Hybrid” Concept
乗用車
トヨタFCHV
Charge the Battery duaring the Night
定置
バス
・ Electric Car in Short Trips
・ Hybrid for Usual Driving
貯湯槽
FCHV- BUS〔日野自動車㈱〕
【Plug-In HV System】
17
家庭用ＦＣ
コジェネシステム
〔アイシン精機㈱〕
トヨタＦＣスタック
本体
AC100V
～240V
Charging System
産業用車両
軽自動車
Battery
FCHV- F〔㈱豊田自動織機〕
MOVE FCV- K- Ⅱ〔ダイハツ工業㈱〕
Your House
20
19
Evolutions ： EV ⇒ HV ⇒ FCHV
Life Cycle Assessment
Production
Electric Vehicle
Fuel Cell HV
Hybrid Vehicle
Fuel Cell
Engine
Recycle
Driving
Air Pollutant
Battery
ＣＯ2、ＮＯｘ、ＳＯｘ、ＰＭ (ﾊﾟﾃｨｷｭﾚｰﾄﾏﾃﾘｱﾙ)、ＮＭＨＣ (ﾉﾝﾒﾀﾝﾊｲﾄﾞﾛｶｰﾎﾞﾝ)
Control
Unit
Resources
原油、石炭、天然ガス、鉱物資源（ 鉄、銅、銀、鉛、亜鉛、
ボーキサイト、ニッケル、マンガン、プラチナ、ロジウム、チタン、ウラン ）
Motor
21
“ EcoEco-VAS ”
Difference of “Fuel Economy”
Economy”
between Official & Actual
Started from ２００５年
環境性能
･お客様要望
･ﾁｰﾌｴﾝｼﾞﾆｱ
の思い入れ
･コスト
･性能
目標達成状況
の逐次把握
.
Air Cooler
Driving
Road Condition
Cooling Loss
Production
環境性能の
最終確認
Chief Engineer
Fuel Economy on Road
Design
Official Fuel Economy
Plan
迅速な対応
Targets for
Environment
Check
Disclosure
on brochure
23
Alternator with Clutch
24
A Heater System for “ESTIMA Hybrid”
Hybrid”
Fr.Heater Core
プーリー
ねじり用バネ
One-way Clutch
Engine Coolant
Rr. Heater Core
Engine
Ex.gases
Heat Exchanger
Valve
Muffler
Check Valve
Catalitic Converter
ローター
プーリー側
ローター側
VSV
Actuator
ECU
Controlled by coolant temp. & torque
Fuel Economy be improved on road
more than 10% in winter
42
22
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Automotive New Technologies for Environment and Safety
Eishi OHNO
25
Energy Monitor for “Lexus GS Hybrid”
Hybrid”
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
43
Automotive New Technologies for Environment and Safety
Eishi OHNO
Collision Safety
Energy Absorption Body
Seat-Belts & Air-Bags
New Technologies for Safety
GOA (1995)
(1995)
10-28-2006
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
Environmental Affairs Div.
EISHI OHNO
Seat-Belt with Pre-Tension
＆Force-Limiter (1997)
(1997)
Ｓ Ｒ Ｓ Curtain Shield Air- Bag
(1998)
(1998)
Ｓ Ｒ Ｓ Knee Air- Bag (2002)
(2002)
衝突安全
ＴＨＵＭＳ（Total Human Model for Safety）
Evaluation of Damages in Human-Body
Preventive Safety
Vehicle Stability
Accident Preventing
Assist
歪み集中
ABS (1971)
(1971)
TRC (Traction Control) (1987)
VSC (1995)
㈱豊田中央研究所との共同開発
㈱豊田中央研究所との共同開発
Pre- Crash Safety (2003)
(2003)
Unification of FEM Models for Human- Body （J
AMA･JARI）
（JAMA･
JARI）
Effects of VSC
予防安全
Safety & Performance Level
予防安全
Accident Rate
Accident／10000 Vehicles
12
－ 24％
10
8
Without
VSC
VSC
－ 44％
Without
VSC
VSC
6
4
With
With VSC
VSC
With VSC
VSC
2
0
Single Accident
Head on Collision
Evolution of Vehicle Dynamics Control
VDIM & Steering
Total Control
VDIM
Total Control
Control
ＶＳＣ
ＴＲＣ
ＡＢＳ
Individual Control
Time
2005年
2005年 自動車事故対策機構デー
自動車事故対策機構デー タ
タ
ＶＤＩ
ＶＤＩＭ
Ｍ ：Ｖｅｈ
：Ｖｅｈｉｃｌ
ｉｃｌｅｅ Ｄ
Ｄｙｎ
ｙｎａｍ
ａｍｉｉｃｓ
ｃｓ ＩＩｎｎｔｅｇｒａｔｅｄ
ｔｅｇｒａｔｅｄ Ｍ
Ｍ ａｎ
ａｎａｇｅｍ
ａｇｅｍ ｅｎ
ｅｎｔｔ
““HELPNET”
HELPNET”
HELPNET”
Vehicle/Environment/Human
衝突
Parking
Preventive Safety
Pre－Crash Safety
Collision
Safety
Rescue
救命
Autonomous-Detection Type
Type
Roadside
Roadside Information-Based
死傷者
死
正面衝突
正面衝突
An airbag is deployed
44
追突
追突 自動車単独
自動車単独 交差点
交差点
対２
対２輪車
輪車 対自転車
対自転車 対歩行者
対歩行者
Education, Infrastructure
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Traffic Accident and Environmental Issues in China－Current Situation and Problems
Related to Policy Implementation in New Technologies Diffusion
Lin SUN
Contents
Traffic Accident and Environmental Issues in China
Current Situation and Problems Related to Policy
Implementation in New Technologies Diffusion
¬ Background
¬ Problems
ITEC 5th International Forum
28th October,
October, 2006
¬ Current
Situation
¬ Government Actions
¬A
Lin SUN
and Issues
example of Policy Analysis
Shanghai Academy of Social Science
Background
¬
¬
Economic growth and
motorization
Rapid growth of new
vehicle in China
Problems
trcuk
bus
car
300
2004
506.8
193.7
313.2
150
2005
575.8
178.7
397.1
100
2006*
517.0
148.8
368.2
accident
¬ Always
Insufficient transport infrastructure
and Unmanageable traffic congestion
50
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
0
1995
Retention vehicle in China
about 40 million by 2006
pollution problem
¬ Frequent traffic
1993
M1
1991
M2-N3
(*1-9month)
(*1-9month)
¬
Increasing energy demand
¬ Serious air
200
Total
¬ Rapid
250
Rapid Increasing energy demand
China’
China’s net import of crude oil(10000 tons)
Serious air pollution problem
¬ Vehicle
emissions contribute 80% of air
pollution in large cities
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
Current Situation of Problems
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
Air pollution’
pollution’s type in large cities
from fuel coal to vehicle emissions
before 90’
90’s
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
after 90’
90’s
45
Traffic Accident and Environmental Issues in China－Current Situation and Problems Related to Policy Implementation in New Technologies Diffusion
Lin SUN
Frequent traffic accident
¬ Characteristics of traffic accident
Fog and air pollution by vehicle
emissions in Beijing
75% traffic accident death is
passenger, rider of bicycle
and pedestrian
Many grave traffic accident
occurred in countryside by
long distance bus
Many traffic accident caused by
the quality of vehicle
USA V 130m D/Y 40000
Japan V 80m D/Y
8000
China V 36m D/Y 100000
Driving like as playing with tiger
Statistic of road accident rate in China
Year
No. Of
accident
Death
toll
Person
injured
Death/1000
vehicles
Death/
Million P
License P
(10000)
1980
116692
21818
80824
12.2
22.1
1985
202394
40906
136829
12.7
38.9
462
245
1990
250297
49271
155072
8.9
43.1
791
1995
271843
71494
159308
6.8
59.0
1673
1998
346129
78067
222721
5.9
62.5
2974
1999
412860
83529
286080
5.7
65.9
3361
2000
616971
93853
418721
5.8
73.8
3747
2001
773306 115266
546485
6.4
89.7
4463
2002
785837 118193
562074
5.7
91.3
4827
2003
660839 103394
487940
4.3
80.0
5368
2004
517888 107076
480865
4.0
82.4
7102
2005
450254
469911
3.1
75.6
8018
98738
Improving
Infrastructure
Urban Transport Mode Changed
in China
Vehicle, Motorbike, Bicycle and Pedestrian
Urban Transport in 80’
80’s Urban Transport in today
Always Insufficient
transport infrastructure
and Unmanageable
traffic congestion
One survey of transportation in Beijing
(in November, 2003)
46
¬
Only 11.4km/h for average speed in downtown Beijing,
almost equal to the speed of bicycle
¬
Occurs frequently at
6060-80 sections
¬
Wait for 3030-60 min. at
some cross sites in
rush hours
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Traffic Accident and Environmental Issues in China－Current Situation and Problems Related to Policy Implementation in New Technologies Diffusion
Lin SUN
Solutions
Government Actions and Issues
Fuel Economic Standards
Current efforts and policies
¬ Setup fuel economic
¬ Fuel
standards
quality improvement
¬ Clean
¬
Limits of fuel consumption for Passenger Cars (1/4/2005)
¬
Product tax adjust according to vehicle weight (1/4/2006)
¬
Limits of fuel consumption for LightLight-Duty Vehicles (2007)
¬
Applying to category M1
fuel vehicle technology
¬ Develop mass rapid transit systems
(BRT,
first stage (reduce 5%～
5%～10%)
new certificate car from 1/7/2005
inin-making car from 1/7/2006
Subway, Urban light rail system)
¬ Setup vehicle safety
technology standards
second stage (reduce 15% )
new design car from 1/1/2008
inin-making car from 1/12009
and ITS
¬ Government
actions by fiscal incentives
Emission Control of Vehicle
¬
Improve fuel quality, Eliminate the leaded gasoline (1/7/2000)
¬
From 1999, Introduce more stringent emission standards
Euro 1: Beijing ——1999;
——1999;
Euro 2: Beijing and Shanghai——
2003
Shanghai——2003
From 2006, Strengthen the emission standards
Euro 3: Beijing ——2006
——2006 China ——208
——208
Euro 4: Beijing ——2008
——2008
Effectiveness of this policy
from 2008 to 2012,reduce the emission:
NOX 1.8m tons, HC 2.2m tons, CO 16m tons
¬
¬
Clean fuel or alternative fuel vehicle
technology (in 11th FiveFive-Year Plan)
¬ Vehicles meeting the
emission standards
more stringent than current
¬ Control
emissions from inin-use vehicles :
Quicken retirement
¬ Promote alternative fuel
vehicles:
CNG/LNG, LPG vehicles, HEVs, FCVs and
pure electrical bus, implement Clean Vehicle
Program in 12 cities, increase R&D input for
program for development of HEVs and FCVs
New Certificate Car
GB1
2000
2001
2002
GB2
2003
2004
GB1
M1<6P,<2.5t；M1, M2,N1<3.5t
2005
GB3
2006
2007
GB2
2008
GB4
2009
2010
GB3
2011
2012
2013
GB4
In-making Car
Industrialization of HEVs,FCVs vehicle
¬
¬
Focused on: Fuel Cell EV, Hybrid EV
As the important “863”
863” project, government
financial US$110 million in 11th FiveFive-Year Plan to
support the development of Electric Vehicle Key
Technological Project, allocated in manufacturers
enterprises, universities and research institutes
Current action:
Establish the standards of Fuel Cell EV, Hybrid EV,
and Research the fiscal incentive policies for
promoting these new type vehicle
Commercial demonstration item of FCVs
¬
Purposes: Make sure the commercial possibility in
China; build up the ability of management; draw up the
commercial development strategy of fuel cell bus
¬
Objections: Make the real devotion of the fuel cell bus
in 2008 Beijing Olympic Game and in 2010 Shanghai
World Expo
¬
Contents: Lower the cost of fuel cell bus, construct
providing hydrogen facilities, speed a technique
conversion
¬
Support by Chinese government, GEF and UNDP
¬
Implement by Ministry of Science and Technology and
local government of Beijing and Shanghai
¬
Period for five years, total outlay about $32 million
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
47
Traffic Accident and Environmental Issues in China－Current Situation and Problems Related to Policy Implementation in New Technologies Diffusion
Lin SUN
The pedestrian's protection standard
stills a blank in China
Setup Vehicle Safety technology standards
¬
¬
Vehicle’
Vehicle’s standard of safe
coefficient is low in China , widely
available of safety belt by the
administration means till 1996
15/2/2004 is an important day for
car consumer in China,
government announced the
policy of “recall”
recall”
Toyota Reiz in Test
¬
Until 1/1/2006, China has
announced more than 19 items
for Vehicle and motorbike
¬
In the policy level, from 1998, the Ministry of Transportation
established the Committee to push forward the standardization
of ITS, Completed "China ITS system frame", "China ITS
standard system frame research", “Intelligence conveyance
system development strategy research"...etc
¬
In the technique level, the integration degree of city ITS's subsubsystem still lower
¬
In investment level, investor mainly is central and local
government, government and enterprise's communication isn't
enough
¬
The relation of government dominance and enterprise
participate, transportation strategy and national strategic are
important
¬
2007 ITS World Congress will be hold in Beijing
¬
In China, about 75% of the death in
traffic accidents are transportation weak
¬
Different from EU, USA and Japan,
include the pedestrian, bicycle, motormotorcycle and automobile, the mixmix-traffic
system is main in China
¬
C-NCAP (China New Car Assessment
Program) be implemented from October
2006, mainly refer to ECE／
ECE／EEC(EC)
¬
CATRC and NISSAN Start a common
research project about pedestrian’
pedestrian’s
protection; the pedestrian safe protective
standard may practice within 3~5 years
in China
ITS in China
Beijing city has 10 measures to
decrease traffic jam
¬
¬
¬
¬
¬
¬
¬
¬
¬
Bus only lane
Restrict use of car
High charge for car parking in city centre
Reform the charge of express way
Strengthen to build urban low degree road
Build suburb transport aisle
ITS in transport management
Transportation development program
Strengthen to build legal system
Efforts of alleviating the traffic
congestion in big cities
Shanghai transportation strategy
¬
Urban public passenger transport priority
¬
Reduce use area of bicycle gradually in
central town, forbid bicycle entering into CBD
¬
Restrict the development of motor bicycle
¬
Control increasing trend and scale of the
centre car traffic，Number License Auction
System
¬
Area restriction of auto (Urban and Rural)
¬
The charge of parking vary from area to area
Numerical analysis of related on
automobiles in China
Background:
The Chinese government is examining to
introduce some environmental and energy
policies like as the fuel tax,
tax, mileage
regulation or tax reduction to lowlow-emission
vehicles,
vehicles, to the situation that the load rests
upon environment
environment and energy by the rapid
growth of vehicle market in China
¬
A example of vehicle related
policy analysis
48
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Traffic Accident and Environmental Issues in China－Current Situation and Problems Related to Policy Implementation in New Technologies Diffusion
Lin SUN
Basic and Structure of the Model
Consumers’ Behavior Structure
¬ Propose and Methodology: We
evaluated
the environmental or economic impacts
generated by introducing such policies by
applying the dynamic computable general
equilibrium model.
Consumer
Phase I
Invest
Basic
consum.
Phase II
¬ Consumers’
Consumers’ behavior structure and
Phase III
C1
・・・・
x1
Ci
Freight transport consum.
xi
Policies and fuel consumption in
family’
family’s section
Transportation Structure in the Model
100 m liter
100 m liter
25
0
Vehicle Purchase Model
Total passenger
transport consum.
Pleasure
consum.
Individual Consum.
transportation structure in the model as
show in diagrams
Transport Consum.
Save
Use now
0
-50
YES
NO
-25
-50
-100
Passenger Car Model
Not passenger car
Car Purchase
-75
-150
Transportation Modes Model
Big
Train, Flight, Bus etc.
-100
Small
Car Use
-125
-200
-150
Transportation Modes Model
-250
Transportation Modes Model
-175
Train, Flight, Bus etc.
-200
-300
Train, Flight, Bus etc.
Car Use
Passenger car fuel consumption
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
mileage regulation
-225
Green tax
2005
2007
2009
2011
fuel tax 1.08 Yuan/L
2013
2015
Polices-mix
Some conclusions from simulation
¬ Setting
of high fuel tax level was
necessary to regulate fuel consumption
more effectively
¬ Mileage
regulation was most effective
policy to fuel reduction
谢谢！
Thanks!
¬ Tax reduction
like as Green tax subsidy
policy was necessity to change the type
of car to lowlow-emission vehicles
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
49
Policies concerning ITS
Hiroaki MIYOSHI
ITEC COE-PJ ‘Automobile
Technology Innovation and Public Policy’
Policies Concerning ITS
This project focuses attention on taking a comprehensive view of the shape
of public policy relating to cutting-edge automotive technology through the
method of welfare economics .
Eamarked Funds
for Roads
Regulations
5th ITEC International Forum
28 October 2006
Automobile Technology
Innovation
Safety
Fuel Economy(CO2
Emission)
NOx, PM Emissions
Hiroaki Miyoshi
Targetry
Road Improvement
Market
(Auto , Fuel and
Information Equipments)
Social Welfare
Pigouvian Tax/Subsidy
1
2
Contents
１
What is ITS?
・ITS is the abbreviation for Intelligent
Transport Systems.
・What is ITS ? ,
・Features of ITS,
・Classification of ITS based on technological
externalities,
・ITS is a new transport system which is
comprised of an advanced information and
telecommunications network for users,
roads and vehicles.
・Concept of optimal penetration level,
・Simulation of the optimal penetration level of
VICS units and the level of taxes/subsidies,
・Dynamic stability of the optimal penetration level.
・ ITS contributes much to solving problems
such as traffic accidents and congestions.
3
1-1 VICS (Vehicle Information and Communication
System)
Source: Road Bureau,
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport,
ITS Hand Book 2002-2003
1-3
4
1-2
5
ETC (Electronic Toll Collection)
Source: Road Bureau,
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport,
ITS Hand Book 2002-2003
6
1-4 Inter-Vehicle Communication Type Driving
Support System
Distance Control Driving System
Distance control driving system controls a
proper headway automatically without
having the drivers to brake manually.
Source:CAR24
Source:CAR24
Source:Katsutoshi Nishimura, JAMAZINE, Sep, 2004.
7
50
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
8
Policies concerning ITS
Hiroaki MIYOSHI
3 Classification of ITS Services
Based on Technological Externalities
2 Features of ITS
1) Having two kinds of technological externalities.
・Externality to already equipped vehicles.
( Network externality ; change in the benefit, or surplus,
that an agent derives from a good when the number of
other agents consuming the same kind of good
changes (Libenstein(1950) , Rohlfs, J.(1974)) .
・Externality to non-equipped vehicles.
To non-equipped vehicles
positive
Distance control
driving system
VICS(FM)
ETC（high penetration)
Probe Car& VICS Optical
Beacon（high penetration）
2) The market penetration level is highly dependent on
the consumers’ expectation for penetration level
because of network externalities.
ETC
（low penetration）
Roadside InformationBased Driving Support
System
Probe Car & VICS
Optical Beacon
（low penetration）
Inter-Vehicle
Communication Type
Driving Support System
positive
negative
To already-equipped vehicles
negative
9
10
5 Simulation of the optimal penetration level of VICS
units and the level of taxes/subsidies -1-
4 Concept of optimal penetration level
Market penetration level and benefit
Market
Benefit
20%
penetration
belonging to
level = 10%
Individual each individual
name
when no other
Benefit
Benefit
Marginal
person use a
belonging to belonging
Social
service
each
to each
benefit
individual individual
A
20
B
20.0
19
1.0
30%
40%
Framework of Simulation model -1a) Target benefit
Only the travel-time saving benefit enjoyed by both
vehicles; those equipped with VICS units and those
without VICS units is evaluated.
b) Types of vehicle
・Categorizing vehicles into 4 types; passenger vehicles,
mini trucks, small trucks and standard trucks.
・Setting different travel distance distributions and time
values for each category of vehicle to calculate the
travel-time saving benefit.
50%
Benefit
Benefit
Benefit
Marginal
Marginal
belonging
belonging
Marginal
belonging
Social
Social
to each
to each Social benefit to each
benefit
benefit
individual
individual
individual
18.0 17.1+(18.017.1 20.0)=15.1
16.0
14.4+(15.215.2 17.1)+(16.018.0)=10.5
14.0
13.3
12.0
6.2
11.4
C
18
0.9
2.0
14.4
12.6
D
17
0.8
1.8
3.5
11.9
E
16
0.7
1.6
3.1
4.6
9.6
F
15
0.7
1.5
2.8
4.1
5.0
G
14
0.6
1.3
2.5 18.0-11.4=6.6
3.7
H
13
0.5
1.2
2.3
3.4
11.4-6.1=5.3
I
12
0.5
1.1
2.0
3.0
J
11
0.4
1.0
1.8
2.6
20.4
17.1
10.8
2.2
10.2
3.4
4.5
-1.0
4.1
3.6
3.3
9.6
1.2
・ The market penetration level and the optimal penetration level are 20% and 30% respectively in the
case where the price of a service is 17.1. It is necessary to provide a subsidy which amount to
2.7(17.1-14.4) .
・ The market penetration and the optimal penetration level are 50% and 40% respectively in the case
where the price of a service is 9.6. It is necessary to impose a tax which amount to 2.3(11.9-9.6).
11
12
5 Simulation of the optimal penetration level of VICS
units and the level of taxes/subsidies -2-
5 Simulation of the optimal penetration level of VICS
units and the level of taxes/subsidies -3-
Framework of Simulation model -2c) Relation between the penetration level of VICS units and the
travel-time saving rate
Framework of Simulation model -3-
Setting several values for α and β as well as for curvatures under the
assumption that the relation between the penetration level of VICS units and the
travel-time saving rate is as in Case1(the sign of network externality is
negative).
Non-users
Non-users
Case1
Case2
Penetration
Level(%)
100
0
100
p'
Penetration
Level(%)
d) Change in the traffic volume by the penetration of
VICS units
Assuming that VICS does not affect the traffic volume in
order to simplify the model.
0
-100β％
-100β％
-100α％
-100α％
Users
Travel time
saving rate(%)
Travel time
saving rate(%)
Users
13
Prepared by authors, referencing Emmerink et al. (1994)
5 Simulation of the optimal penetration level of VICS
units and the level of taxes/subsidies -4Simulation Results
P
0.4
Type1: Consumers’ penetration level expectation (pe) is
equal to the market penetration level during the
previous period(p-1)
pe = p-1
Type2: Consumers’ penetration level expectation (pe) is
affected by government targetry and
announcement of the penetration level (pg)
pe = p-1+δ(pg -p-1) 0< δ<1
a=0.20
a=0.15
0.5554
0.5 0.5059
a=0.10
a=0.20
a=0.15
a=0.10
0.4331
0.3 0.3074
a=0.05
a=0.05
0.2
0.1
b
0.05
0.0414
-0.1
0.09
0.1
0.1393
0.15
0.1888
0.2
The bold lines show the optimal penetration level.
The fine lines show the market penetration level.
6 Dynamic Stability of the Optimal Penetration Level(1)
Dynamic stability comparison between two types of
expectation formation in the case where negative network
externality exist.
・ Except in the case where the gap between α and β is narrow, the market penetration levels
exceeds the optimal penetration levels.
・ Imposition of tax is necessary to realize the optimal penetration level unless the value of β is
similar to the value of α.
0.6
14
15
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
16
51
Policies concerning ITS
Hiroaki MIYOSHI
6 Dynamic Stability of the Optimal Penetration Level(2)
penetration level during the
present period
Forty-five
degree line
P(1)
P(3)
Type2
expectation
formation
Po
P(2)
Type1
expectation
formation
P(0)
P(2)
Po
P(3)
P(1)
penetration level
during the
previous period
Relationship between penetration level during previous period
and that of present period
52
17
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Cost-effectiveness of vehicle safety regulation
Masayoshi TANISHITA
Change in Safety Regulations
Cost-effectiveness of
Vehicle Safety Regulations
in Japan
（Trucks→Cars）
Body AirBag
Safety belts Blake Tire/Light
1959
1960
1963
Trucks
1968
5th ITEC International Forum
1993
→
28 Oct 2006
ABS
Child Seat
Masayoshi Tanishita
Chuo Univ.
[email protected]
Passive safety technologies
Active safety technologies are excluded from safety regulations.
1
Choice, Ownership, Use
Purpose
User
Industry
Parts
Automobile maker
Cost
Administrative cost
＜
＞
？
Government
benefit
After 1993
change in parts cost
with/without moving
average
change in car weights
change in accident
rates by accident type
change in parts cost
caused by regulation
relationship between car
weights and fuel
economy
two-way loglinear
model
change in car price caused
by regulation
change in fuel cost
effects of model year
change in rates of
patents related to
regulation
Regulation
Cost Benefit Analysis
of Safety Regulations
Increase in
car price and
fuel cost
Methodology
cost
Outcome
<Reduction of
Fatalities/injuries>
Cost
New Cars
2
Regulation
Effectiveness
Value of
Statistical
Life (VSL)
# of parts in a car
Reduction of
causalities
3
cost of regulation
change in car price
Regulation related patents
value of
fatality/injury
benefit of regulation
4
Cost of regulation(1)
About 30%(20-50%) of patents are related to safety regulations
Safety
belts
シートベルト
④⑤
1200
1000
2000
800
1500
600
1000
400
500
200
特許件数
③
2500
Year
年
Assumption: the ratio of cost increase by safety regulations is
in proportional to the ratio of patents related to safety regulations.5
About 30% of the cost increase (0.14-0.26 mil. yen ) was
caused by safety regulations
カローラ
Corolla
price
クラウン
Crown
全車両
All
160
200
150
全車両
All
Corolla
カローラ
Crown
クラウン
thou. Yen
カローラ
Corolla
0
130
120
110
19
19
88
年
90
年
19
92
年
94
年
19
96
年
19
98
年
20
00
年
20
02
年
20
04
年
100
19
96
年
19
98
年
20
00
年
20
02
年
（adjusted vehicle weight and CPI）
最小規制コスト
Minimum
最大－最小
Maximum
Other
規制以外のコスト
Base price
1988年の価格
140
19
100
10
（万円）
150
19
88
年
19
90
年
19
92
年
19
94
年
Assumption : 5 year
lag between R&D
and regulation.
Cost of Regulation (3)
• Change in automobile body (10 thou. yen)
50
2-3 year lag between
cost and regulation.
6
Cost of regulation(2)
250
2-3 year lag between
cost and R&D．
0
0
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
19
88
年
19
90
年
19
92
年
19
94
年
19
96
年
19
98
年
20
00
年
20
02
年
20
04
年
①、②
3000
# of patents
Price (Yen)
Body
ボディー
Safety-belts
シートベルト
Air-bags
エアバック
1 個 あた りの 金 額 （円 ）
SHARE
規制技術開発の割合
• # of Patents and part cost
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
7
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
8
53
Cost-effectiveness of vehicle safety regulation
Masayoshi TANISHITA
Weight and fuel economy
Fatalities/Injuries per # of registered vehicle (Yij)
Model effect αi Vehicle age effect βj
ln(Yij)=μ＋αi＋βj＋εij
εij ～N(0，σ )
25
30
Assumption:
15kg (1%) increase
by safety regulations.
→
20
Fuel Economy (Fe)
2
15
1% increase in fuel cost
5
10
fe
Effectiveness - two way ANOVA(1)
0
# of sample=361
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
weight
ln(fe)= 9.40 - 0.97 ln(weight) R2=0.71
(40.43) (-29.75) (t-stats)
10
9
Benefit and Cost
Effectiveness - two way ANOVA(2)
fixed effects (slight injury)
Benefit
fixed effects (heavy injury rate)
0.1
Thou. Yen
/10 years
1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.5
0.02
Cost
Thou. Yen
/10 years
Reduction of fatalities
90
Increase in vehicle cost
Reduction of severe injuries
120
Increase in fuel cost*
0
140-260
8.3
Increase in slightly injury cost
-0.02
-0.04
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
Total
0
1
2
3
model year
4
5
6
7
8
210
15
Total
163-283
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
B/C
age
New car is safer than older cars
0.74-1.29
Note: travel distance 100,000 (km/year), fuel economy 12 (km/liter) gasoline price 100(yen/liter)
Value of Statistical Life： 300 mil. yen/pers.
Loss by heavily injuries： 100 mil.
slightly injuries:
5 mil.
Reduction in fatalities： 0.0003 pers./vehicle
heavily injuries： 0.0006
slightly injuries： -0.003
11
12
Findings
Issues
• (Airbag and safety belts) R&D – (2-3 years) ->
Sales – (2 years) -> Regulation
• Definition of benefit and cost related
to regulation
• About 30% of R&D in parts are related to safety
regulations.
• Are active safety technologies spread
and enhanced without regulation?
• Estimated cost: 140-260 thou. yen after 1993.
Major part is body.
– consumers behavior
worldwide point of view
• Though fatalities has been deceasing, B/C is not
high due to increase in traffic accidents.
• Emission regulations
→ Active safety technologies are highly required.
13
14
per capita death rate (per mil.)
Projected change in the ranking of the 15 leading
causes of death and disease (DALYs) worldwide,
20
15
10
5
per VMT death rate
30
25
India
Ma lays ia
Poland
Greece
China
Spa in
Hungar
y
Turkey
Czech
Republic
USA
35
Por tugal
Slovak
Republic
40
Australia
Finland
Iceland
FYR Ma
cedonia
Japan
Denmark
Switze
rland
Germany
Netherlan
ds
Sw eden
United
Kingdom
Norway
45
Ca nada
Fra nce
Ireland
Lux em bou
rg
Austria
New Zea
land
50
0
20
15
10
5
54
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Greece
Republ
ic
Republic
Czech
Slovak
Iceland
Austria
New Zea
land
Japan
Ireland
France
German
y
Denma
rk
USA
Ca nada
n
Swede
lia
Norway
Switzerlan
d
ds
Austra
Finl and
Netherlan
15
Belgium
Republi
c of Ko
rea
source WHO "The Global Burden of Disease
United
Kin
gdom
0
16
Cost-effectiveness of vehicle safety regulation
Masayoshi TANISHITA
0
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
fatalities (%)
3
fatalities
casualties
2.5
2
0.05
1.5
1
2004年
3.5
100
2003年
0.1
0
運転者
前席同乗者
後席同乗者
同乗者合計
2002年
200
1993年
2000
300
fatalities
casualties
casualties (%)
4000
2001年
400
6000
2000年
8000
新車乗用車の保有台数に占める死亡者率
0.000035
0.00003
0.000025
0.00002
0.000015
0.00001
0.000005
0
1999年
500
1998年
10000
Japan
thou.
1997年
600
1996年
700
12000
1995年
800
14000
1994年
900
16000
死亡者数/保有台数
18000
Reduction of fatalities
• Change in Fatalities rate of new cars
casualties
fatalities
Change in traffic accidents (left) and
its rates per # of vehicle (right)
図 1－1 新車乗用車の保有台数に占める死亡者率
0.5
0
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
0
Vehicle regulations
18
Difficulties（Segregation of impacts）
Education
Information
Inspection and
Maintenance
# of accidents and injuries with serious aftereffects are not decreasing,
17
• R&D: Makers invest R&D even if without
regulations．
Safety
（Traffic Accidents）
Emissions
Fuel Economy
（NOx, PM）
（Energy Security
Climate Change）
• Cost: Parts and vehicle costs are affected
by material and other capital costs and
fluctuated.
・Effectiveness: Drivers and driving
conditions also affect traffic accidents.
Taxation
Transport Infrastructure Provision
19
20
結果
車種選択・購入・使用
Timing of R&D by regulation(1)
自動車利用者
Questions
Management cycle of regulation in MLIT
成果（事故による
損失削減）
費用・新技術
登載車両
供給
規制
自動車産業
技術
開発
ITARDA
Analysis section
（Data analysis）
Selection of
regulation item
部品メーカー
組立メーカー
政府
規制
Q1. Timing of R&D caused by regulations
Progress of
Technologies
Q2. Parts and vehicle cost to meet with
regulations
Setting of Standards
Safety standards section
Post evaluation
Q３. Cost-effectiveness of regulations
21
22
Data
Timing of R&D by regulations
• Safety Regulation after 1993
(Body, Air-bag and Seatbelts)
Information
gathering
→
R&D
• Patents（segregation based on the
contents）
• Quantity and cost：Machinery Statistics
(METI) / Shipment survey, Automobile
Guidebook (JAMA) / Fatalities and Injuries
by vehicle type and age（ITARDA） etc.
Sales
→
1年以内に
8割がた開発完了
即，検討
チーム発足
→
Regulation
（ヒアリング結果より）
Technologies are almost
completed when regulation
is applied.
年
23
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
件
エアバックの特許数の推移
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Regulatory cost emerge
before regulated year
24
55
Cost-effectiveness of vehicle safety regulation
Masayoshi TANISHITA
Regulation related patents(1)
技術開発
の分類
Choice, Ownership, Use
Body
衝突強度
乗員保護
Regulation
Related
others
規制がなくても
開発すると
考えられるもの
Impacts of vehicle regulations
軽量化
コスト削減
乗り心地
外観，製造方法
快適性
Air-bag
衝突強度
本体強化
乗員保護
サイド
助手席
製造方法
織り込み方法
作動展開速度
軽量化 コスト削減
コンパクト化，廃棄方法
Seat belt
User
衝突強度
後席3点式
チャイルドシート
シートベルトテンション
など
Outcome
<Reduction of
Fatalities/injuries>
Cost
New Cars
Regulation
Industry
その他
R&D
Government
Parts
Automobile maker
Regulation
クロスする内容も少なくないはず・・・・ 25
Cost of Regulation(3)
Parts
26
1972→1994　Tokyo
NOx対策の費用対効果
Benefit
Cost
←
技術費用
移動
NOｘ削減量（百万kg/yr)
活動量
→
排出量の変化
観測値
→
濃度の変化
医療費用削減便益：大人（百万円）
｜
730,000
（用量作用関係）
医療費用削減便益:子供（百万円）
行政コスト
• About 30% of parts price increase are caused by
regulation.
固定
10
45.3
93,000
↓
• Sum-up price change w/wo moving average
considering fluctuations．
人口
→
健康被害軽減
慢性・急性
地区別
↓
（呼吸器等）
年齢別
経済損失軽減
経済損失軽減便益（百万円）
760,000
子供のケア削減便益（百万円）
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
19
88
年
19
90
年
19
92
年
19
94
年
19
96
年
19
98
年
20
00
年
20
02
年
20
04
年
• Body：
Excluding heavier-ization
(underestimate?)
万円
1988年からの価格増加量
56
100,000
アメニティ軽減
全車両
カローラ
クラウン
27
費用（百万円）
B/C
260,000
14,000
6.6:1
行政コスト
44～0.3:1
2,300
Voorhees (2000) for Tokyo
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
28
The Effect of Automobile Tax System Revision
Akane TOKOO / Yuko AKUNE
(1) Introduction
2
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization and ITEC
have jointly conducted the development of a simulation
model for the effect analysis of automobile tax system
revision.
-The Effect of
Automobile Tax System RevisionRevision-
This model can make a comprehensive assessment of the
effects from automobile tax system revision mainly from the
following three variables.
1）Consumer’s utility
2）Physical distribution cost
3）CO２ emission
ITEC International Forum
28 October 2006
Akane TOKOO & Yuko AKUNE
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
(2(2-1)CO2 Emission in Japan
3
CO2 Emission at 1990 and 2004
[1144]
1,200
1,000
800
600
NON-ENERGY
85
HOUSEHOLD
127
OTHERS
164
ENERGY
68
TRANSPORTATION
217
Mileage between 1993 and 2003
Target of Mileage at 2010
[1286]
84
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
300
168
227
200
81
150
262
SHIP
BUS
7
7
14
5
TRUCK
95
RAIL
AIR
50
INDUSTRY
482
466
19.00
13.00
9.00
LEGEND
LEGEND
1990
1990
16.26
[16.00]
SMALL
10.84
11.00
90
0
0
[10.50]
STANDARD
7.00
2004
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2010
2004
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
(3) Model Structure
[21.20]
LIGHT
15.00
AUTOMOBILE
134
CAR
20.69
17.00
92
400
Target
mileage
(km/litter)
21.00
8
11
13
5
250
100
200
(2(2-2)Automobile
2)Automobile Technology Innovation 4
for CO2 Emission
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
5
(4) Problems of Tax System in Japan
6
(1)Purchase Tax
Auto Market
Auto holding
Consumption of
composite commodity
Auto usage
Auto production
・Replacement purchase
・First purchase
Carrying companies
Automaker
Household
Freight car
market
Freight car holding
Provision of physical
distribution services
【Tax Revenue in regarding Automobile at
F.Y.2000】
F.Y.2000】
Tax item
（Congestion
degree）
→Decreasing cost with usage
⇒These taxes have a negative impact on
environmental conservation.
Government
Holding
Tax
(3) Tax Distribution
（Express way,Open road）
Taxation
・Purchase tax [Car]：light=3%, other=5%
Purchase tax [Fright car]:commercial=3% private=5%
Usage
Tax
→Consumers of light cars and commercial
automobiles are privileged.
⇒This is irrational from both viewpoints of
Environmental burden
(CO2, NOx)
and
• Increase in
and
Automobile acquisition Tax,
Automobile tonnage Tax,
Light motor vehicle Tax
Vehicle Tax.
Gasoline Tax,
Local road transfer Tax,
Light oil delivery Tax
Total tax revenue
from purchase &
possession Tax
Vehicle Tax
17,644
Light motor
vehicle Tax
1,250
Gasoline Tax
27,686
Local road
transfer Tax
Light oil
delivery Tax
12,076
34,878
(100millions of yen)
Total tax revenue
from usage tax
2,962
42,724
(100millions of yen)
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
7
(5) Simulation Scenario #2
【Tax Revenue in F.Y.2000】
• Abolition of
4,641
11,343
cost-of-service principle and value-of-service
principle.
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
(5) Simulation Scenario #1
Automobile
Purchase
acquisition
Tax
Tax
Automobile
tonnage Tax
・Tax revenue irrespective of the usage of the
automobile ：44.5%
Travel speed
Travel Time
Tax
Revenue
(100millions of yen)
(2)Tax on Purchase and Possession
Road
market
Road Improvement
:92%
:8%
→ meaning of this tax?
⇒This tax is a luxury tax.
Tax item
Purchase
Tax
Holding
Tax
【Simulation Scenario】
Tax revenue
(100millions of yen)
Automobile
acquisition Tax
Automobile
tonnage Tax
11,343
Vehicle Tax
17,644
Light motor
vehicle Tax
1,250
Gasoline Tax
Usage
Tax
Local road
transfer Tax
Light oil
delivery Tax
8
4,641
34,878
(100millions of yen)
12,076
・Abolition Tax from
purchase &
possession
・Tax revenue
neutrality
27,686
2,962
Total tax revenue
from purchase
& possession Tax
Total tax revenue
from purchase &
holding Tax
Total tax revenue
from usage tax
0
(yen)
Total tax
revenue from
usage tax
42,724
42,724
＋
(100millions of yen)
34,878
(100millions of yen)
Within
Within the
the Framework
Framework of
of Tax
Tax Revenue
Revenue Neutrality
Neutrality
・・Gasoline
Gasoline tax & Local road transfer tax
tax
・・Light
Light oil
oil delivery
delivery tax
tax
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
：：53.8
→ 96.8
Yen/litter
53.8Yen/litter→
Yen/litter→
96.8Yen/litter
Yen/litter
：：32.1Yen/litter
32.1Yen/litter→
→57.8Yen/litter
57.8Yen/litter
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
57
The Effect of Automobile Tax System Revision
Akane TOKOO / Yuko AKUNE
(6) Result of Simulation
9
Abolition Tax from Purchase and
possession
Tax Revenue Neutrality
Cost of Purchase & Possession
Household
Utility
↑
Physical
Cost of Usage
Distribution Cost
(YEN ton_km )
Number of Vehicle Owned
Auto
0.84% ↑
St.car： 0.05% ↑
Sm.car： 1.45% ↑
Lt.car： -0.06% ↓
• “St. car” indicates standard-sized car.
• “Sm. car” indicates small car.
• “Lt. car” indicates light car.
F.car
Total c.: -0.20%
0.12% ↑
↓
St.car： 0.68% ↑
Sm.car： 0.06% ↑
Lt.car： 0.00% →
Total Travel Distance
Open road :
Express way :
• “F. car” means Freight car.
Auto
-2.84% ↓
Open road: -2.85% ↓
Express way:
-2.76% ↓
-1.98%
Remaining Challenges
-0.46% ↓
Hectare of Road
Earmarked Fund Revenue
25.5%
↑
-100% ↓
Tonnage.T: -100% ↓
Fuel.T: 73.1% ↑
Open road:
Express way:
0.59% ↑
0.00% →
Acq.T:
• “Acq. t” indicates
acquisition tax
Velocity
Open road:
Express way:
1.01% ↑
0.24% ↑
Travel Distance
per auto
-3.65% ↓
Open road:
Express way:
-3.66% ↓
-3.56% ↓
The shift from purchase and possession to usage in the
automobile tax system has effect on increasing utility,
reduction of carbon-dioxide emissions and decreasing
the physical distribution cost.
0.11% ↑
Open road: 0.21% ↑
Express way:
10
Conclusion
This tax system revision also has effect on diffusing
new cars that use new technology.
↓
-1.89% ↓
-2.00% ↓
F.car
(7)Conclusion and Remaining Challenges
CO2 Emission
-1.98% ↓
NOX Emission
-0.17% ↓
(1) Division by household type(e.g. age of the head of a household)
(2) Adoption of the market of used-car in our model
(3) Elaboration of physical distribution service
(4) Division by region
(5) Estimations of traffic accident
**Each figure indicates the increasing rate as of 2012-2014 in comparison with the case where current tax system continues.
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
58
Gendai Advanced Studies Research Organization
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
4. Scenes
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
59
60
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Ⅲ. The 6th ITEC INTERNATIONAL FORUM
ITEC BEIJING FORUM
INNOVATING EAST ASIA
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
61
1. Program
Date: Saturday, March 17 2007
Venue: Conference Room 3342, Level 3, Leo Koguan Building, the School of Government, Peking
University, Beijing China
9:30: Registration
9:50 Opening Speech by TIANBIAO ZHU, Vice Dean of the School of Government, Peking
University
10:00 Opening Speech by YOSHIFUMI NAKATA, Director General, ITEC and Professor,
Doshisha Business School, Doshisha University
10:10 Keynote Speech
A THEORY OF INNOVATION
JUN FU, Executive Dean, The School of Government, Peking University
10:45 Q&A (15 minutes)
11:00 Tea Break
11:10 Keynote Speech
TWO MODELS OF INNOVATION
RONALD DORE, Fellow of British Academy and Associate, Centre for Economic Performance,
London School of Economics
11:45 Q&A (15 minutes)
12:00 Lunch
13:10 Keynote Speech
TAKING EAST ASIA SERIOUSLY: DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION IN EAST ASIA
HUGH WHITTAKER, Director, ITEC, Professor, Doshisha Business School, Doshisha University
and Professor, Department of Management and Employment, University of Auckland
13:45 Q&A (15 minutes)
Tea Break 14:00 (10 minutes)
ASPECTS OF INNOVATION
20 minutes per topic/talk
14:10 Session 1 Political Economy of Innovation
Chaired by MON-HAN TSAI, East Asia Program Coordinator and Research Fellow, ITEC Doshisha
University
Discussants; RONALD DORE / HUGH WHITTAKER
1 MODULARITY TRAP, CHINESE VERSION: A WORKING HYPOTHESIS FOR
ARCHITECTURAL CHANGES AND INNOVATION IN CHINA’S CONSUMER
ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY
LEI SONG, Associate Professor and Chairman of the Department of Political Economy, Peking
University
2 THE ROLE OF ICT IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
PATRICK IMAM, Economist, International Monetary Fund
14:50 Discussion (30 minutes)
Tea Break 15:20 (10 minutes)
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
63
15:30 Session 2 Clusters, Innovation and Economic Development
Chaired by YOSHIFUMI NAKATA, Director General, ITEC and Professor, Doshisha
Business School, Doshisha University
Discussants: JICI WANG, Professor, the Department of Urban and Regional Planning,
Peking University
TIM STURGEON, Senior Research Affiliate, Industrial Performance Center, MIT and
Research Fellow, ITEC, Doshisha University
3 THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH-TECH INDUSTRY CLUSTER -ZHONGGUANCUN SCIENCE PARK
YING ZHANG, Associate Professor at Institute of Social Development & Public
Policy (ISDPP), Beijing Normal University and Research Associate, Centre for
Strategic Studies, School of Government, Peking University
4 ON INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES IN JAPAN AND INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER
POLICY
TAKAO SAKAKURA, ITEC Visiting Fellow and METI, Kansai Bureau, and
KAZUNORI FUJIMOTO, ITEC Visiting Fellow and General Manager, Fujimoto
Research Park Co, Ltd
16:10 Discussion (30 minutes)
16:40Tea Break (10 minutes)
16:50 Session 3 Innovations in the Health Care Industry
Chaired by YOSHIFUMI NAKATA, Director General, ITEC and Professor, Doshisha
Business School, Doshisha University
Discussants: TOSHIHIKO HASEGAWA, Professor of Graduate School of Public
Health, Nippon Medical School, Tokyo JAPAN
CHANGHUI ZHOU, Associate Professor, Department of Strategy,
Guanghua School of Management, Peking University
5 INNOVATION AND HEALTH CARE VALUE CHAIN
WILSON ZHANG, Assistant Professor, Guanghua School of Management, Peking
University
6 ASIAN HEALTH RESOURCES ON THE MOVE, EXCEPT JAPAN?
FUMIAKI YASUKAWA, Director of Doshisha Institute for Health Policy and
Business, Doshisha University
17:30 Discussion (30 minutes)
18:00 Session 4 Compressed Development and Innovation
Chaired by YING ZHANG, Associate Professor at Institute of Social Development &
Public Policy (ISDPP), Beijing Normal University and Research Associate, Centre for
Strategic Studies, School of Government, Peking University
Discussants: RONALD DORE, Fellow of British Academy and Associate, Centre for
Economic Performance, London School of Economics
LEI SONG, Associate Professor and Chairman of the Department of Political Economy,
Peking University
7 HOW GLOBALIZATION DRIVES COMPRESSED DEVELOPMENT
TIM STURGEON, Senior Research Affiliate, Industrial Performance Center, MIT and
64
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Research Fellow, ITEC, Doshisha University
8 COMPRESSED LEARNING IN INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING
SEISHI KIMURA, Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Fukushima University
18:40 Discussion (30 minutes)
19:10 Concluding Remarks
Tianbiao Zhu, Vice Dean of the School of Government and Chairman of the
Department of Political Economy, Peking University
19:30 Reception
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
65
2. List of Participants
RONALD DORE
Ronald DORE is an Associate of the Centre for Economic Performance, London School of
Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, formerly professor of political science at MIT.
He learned Japanese during the war and has spent most of his life studying Japanese society and
economy and the interaction between social trends and economic trends.
His Stock Market Capitalism, Welfare Capitalism: Japan and Germany versus the Anglo-Saxons was
published by Oxford University Press in May 2000. A collection of his writings edited with Hugh
Whittaker, Social Evolution, Economic Development, Culture, Change: What it means to take Japan
seriously (Edward Elgar, 2001) has appeared in paperback, and his latest publication is a Chuko
Shinsho, 「働くということ」
Jun FU
Fu Jun holds B.A. from Beijing Foreign Languages Institute, LL.B. from the Foreign Affairs College
in Beijing, and A.M. and Ph.D. both from Harvard University. He is professor of political economy
at the School of Government, Peking University, and currently serves as the school's executive dean.
He is also a research associate at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard
University. Prior to his appointment at Peking University, he has taught at Harvard University, the
University of Hong Kong, Tsinghua University and served as Tsinghua's public policy school's
associate dean. In other personae, he has served as a foreign services officer with the Chinese
Foreign Ministry, consultant and advisor for multinational firms, non-executive director for domestic
firms, and member of Shenzhen Stocks Exchanges Listing Committee. His research interests include
international trade and investment, governance issues, business-government relations.
Kazunori FUJIMOTO
Kazunori Fujimoto is currently CEO of Fujimoto Research Park and also a visiting fellow at
ITEC, Doshisha University.
He joined Communication Laboratories of Nippon Telegraph and Telephone
Corporation during 1992-2001 and established Fujimoto Research Park Co. LTD in
2001. His area of specialization is in information systems, especially in Artificial
Intelligence. At ITEC his research focuses on Industrial network and clusters.
Patrick IMAM
Patrick Imam is a German/Belgian/Egyptian citizen and has been with the IMF since 2005. Prior to
joining the IMF, he worked in Investment Banking at Credit Suisse First Boston in London. He holds
a PhD from Cambridge, and also studied at Oxford and Warwick. Since joining the Fund, he worked
in the Middle East and Central Asia department, primarily on Libya, Syria and Yemen. He then
moved to the Asian division of the IMF Institute, where he taught Financial Programming and
Financial courses. He is now in the African Department, working notably on Mauritius and Cote
d'Ivoire. His research interests are on issues related to economic growth and finance. He grew up in
Asia, the Middle-East and Europe.
Seishi KIMURA
Seishi Kimura is Associate Professor of International Business at Fukushima University, Japan. He
obtained his PhD in Management Studies and MPhil in Development Studies at the University of
Cambridge, UK. His publications include The Challenges of Late Industrialization (Basingstoke,
Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
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Takao SAKAKURA
Takao Sakakura is currently a visiting fellow at ITEC, Doshisha University. He joined the Patent
Office, Industrial Planning Department, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Kansai,
and in 2001 the Research Division, General Coordination and Policy Planning Department of the
same organization. His area of specialization is on regional policy of industry and social network. At
ITEC his research focuses on Industrial network and clusters.
Lei SONG
Song Lei is Associate Professor in the School of Government and Department Chair of Department
of Political Economy, at Peking University. He holds Bachelor of Economics and Master of
International Economics from Department of Economics and Institution of Japanese Studies, Jilin
University. In 2000, he received the Degree of Doctor of Economics from Nagoya University and
began to teach Japanese economy at School of Economics, Nagoya University as research associate
and Kitan fellow. From the autumn of 2002, he moved to School of Economics, Kyoto University to
conduct his post doc program. At the end of 2004, he joined School of Government, Peking
University. His research interests range from Japanese Economy Studies, Industrial Strategy
(Industrial Policy and Business Policy), Coordination of Conflicting Interests in Economic
Development to Diversity of Capitalism. Most of his publications are in Japanese or English. His
on-going researches include the international comparison of export-led growth and compatibility
between economic institutions.
Tim STURGEON
Timothy J. STURGEON is a Senior Affiliate at the Industrial Performance Center Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. He came to MIT from the University of California at Berkeley, where he
was a Research Specialist at the Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy for five years
while earning his PhD in Economic Geography. He is co-organizer of the Global Value Chains
Initiative, and a Research Fellow at ITEC, Doshisha University. Dr. Sturgeon has also been a
Research Associate at MIT, and has served as Executive Director of the IPC’s Globalization Study
and the Globalization Research Director for the International Motor Vehicle Program at the Center
for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development.
D.Hugh WHITTAKER
Hugh Whittaker is Director, ITEC, Doshisha University and Professor, University of Auckland
Business School. He graduated with a BA in Sociology from International Christian University
(ICU), Tokyo and a PhD in Industrial Sociology from Imperial College, London University.
Professor, Doshisha Business School until March 2007, he was formerly a Cambridge University
Reader and Assistant Director, Centre for Business Research, Cambridge University.
Fumiaki YASUKAWA
Dr. Yasukawa is the director of the Doshisha Institute for Health Policy and Business. He joined
Doshisha University after serving as associate professor of the School of Health Management at
Hiroshima International University. He is currently a senior research fellow at ITEC, where he is
responsible for conducting research projects on Technological innovation in healthcare and their
impact on the nation’s quality of life. He obtained his MA and PhD in health economics from Kyoto
University’s Graduate School of Economics.
Wei ZHANG joined the faculty of Peking University Guanghua School of Management in Aug.
2004, with a joint appointment from School of Government at Peking University. He received his
Ph.D. in Health Policy from Harvard University in 2004, and M.D. from Peking Union Medical
College in 1998 after completing pre-med study at Peking University. Prior to joining Peking
University, he had teaching experiences at Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, and had
served as a Resident Tutor at Eliot House, Harvard College for 5 years. Having completed his Ph.D.
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
67
dissertation on quality of care at Harvard Medical School, Dr. Zhang has additional research interests
in health policy and management, physician behavior, provider profiling, medical error/patient safety
as well as health insurance. He is a member of AcademyHealth, and is also affiliated with
Department of Health Care Policy at Harvard Medical School. He is the recipient of AT&T
Leadership Award and Sloan Dissertation Fellowship on managed care.
Ying ZHANG
Zhang Ying holds a MS Master of Strategics, Major in Military School, School of Traffic and
Transportation from Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu and aPhD in Philosophy in Economics
from Nankai University, Tianjin
He is currently Associate Professor at Institute of Social Development & Public Policy (ISDPP),
Beijing Normal University, and Research Associate at Centre for Strategic Studies, School of
Government, and Peking University. He was formerly Postdoc Fellow, at School of Public Policy &
Management, Tsinghua University, lecturer and Teaching assistant Department of Military Traffic,
Military Traffic College
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3. Presentations
1)Abstracts
Two models of innovation
Ronald Dore, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
(LSE), London, UK.
The world's two leading innovators -- owners of intellectual property at least -- are Japan and
the US. The Silicon Valley model -- fortunes made by individual inventors backed by smart venture
capitalists -- is often seen as the archetypal American way. In Japan, by contrast, it is R&D
employees who do the inventing and their corporations that supply the funds to bring them to
market. In fact both countries have a mix of both recipes, thought the proportions in the mix are
very different. There is no universal answer to the question of which recipe works best, either for
incremental or for break-through inventions. Much depends on a variety of factors, the nature of the
educational and employment systems, attitudes towards work, the dominant notions of the nature of
the corporation, all of which can vary from country to country. "National innovation systems" are
complex affairs and each country must build its own.
2 つの革新モデル
英国ロンドン、ロンドン大学政治経済学院（LSE）
、経済パフォーマンスセンター
Ronald Dore
知的財産の所有者かつ、世界をリードする 2 つのイのベーターは日本と米国である。
賢明な投資家をバックにつけた個人の発明家によって作られた財産であるシリコンバ
レーモデルは、しばしば典型的なアメリカ式として見られている。それとは対照的に日
本では、投資をするのは R&D の被雇用者であり、市場に出す資金を供給するのはその
企業である。実際、両国とも混同した手法を備えており、その割合が極めて異なると考
えられている。付加的もしくは飛躍的な発明を通しても、どの手法が最も機能するかと
いう質問に対する普遍的な答えはない。大半は、教育および雇用体制の特性、仕事への
態度、企業の特性に関する支配的概念などといった多様な原因によって決まり、すべて
は国によって異なる。「ナショナルイノベーションシステム」は複雑であり、各国家は
独自の体制を作り上げていかねばならない。
A Theory of Innovation
Jun FU, School of Government, Peking University, China
In this paper, I seek to answer what sustains continuing innovation in technology since the Industrial
Revolution occurred in Britain. Contrary to the prevailing consensus that institutional arrangements
such private property rights and an undifferentiated notion of market have been highly conducive to
recurring innovation, instead, I propose that the development of, and the linkage between the two
markets, additional market and basic market, explain why some countries such USSR failed to
maintain the dynamics of innovation after the spectacular growth in the initial phase and why some
countries such Britain and the USA keep up or even accelerate the pace of innovation over an
extended period of time until today.
革新の理論
中国、北京大学政府管理学大学院
Jun FU
この研究論文では、英国で発生した産業革命以来、何によって技術革新は継続して維持
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されているのかについての答えを追求する。再び革新を起こすには私的財産権および市
場の未分化概念といった制度的取り決めには伝導性がある、という一般的な意見に反し
て、市場の発展、追加市場および基本市場という 2 つの市場間の関係によるものと過程
する。例えば、USSR のような国がなぜ初期段階の目を見張るような成長の後に革新の
原動力の維持に失敗したのか、また、なぜ英国や米国のような国は現在までの長期にわ
たったそれを維持し、さらに革新速度を加速させることができたのか、ということを説
明・提示していく。
On Industrial Structures in Japan and the Industrial Cluster Policy
Takao SAKAKURA and Kazunori FUJIMOTO, ITEC, Doshisha University, Kyoto, Japan
The theme of this presentation is industrial structures in Japan and the industrial cluster policy.
The characteristics of industrial clusters are illustrated in accordance with academic literature and
Japanese history of industrial policies. A dynamical process model of developing social networks,
which is one of the important features of industrial clusters, is presented to show factors for
developing and promoting industrial clusters. Industrial cluster policies in Kansai science city are
also described to discuss the effect of the policies in concrete form and to show our plan for
cross-national research on industrial clusters.
日本の産業構造および産業クラスター政策について
同志社大学 ITEC
坂倉孝雄・藤本和則
本発表の主題は、日本の産業構造および産業クラスター政策である。まず、産業クラ
スターの特性を産業政策における学問的文献および日本の歴史に基づいて説明する。産
業クラスターの重要な特徴のひとつでもある社会ネットワークの発展における動的な
プロセスモデルは、産業クラスターの発展および促進の要因を示すために提起されてい
る。関西文化学術研究都市のクラスター政策もそのモデルのひとつとしてとらえ、具体
的な政策の影響の議論と産業クラスターに関する今後の国際比較研究計画を明らかに
するために説明されている。
The Role of ICT in Economic Development
Patrick Imam, International Monetary Fund, USA
With the advent of the “Information Revolution” at the end of the 20th century, it was anticipated
that investment in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) would become a key
technology enabling Less Developed Countries (LDCs) to potentially catch up with Developed
Countries (DCs). As a result, a widespread impetus arose in the development community to close the
ICT investment gap between DCs and LDCs. There was a fear that not doing so would mean that
LDCs would fall further behind. This push for ICT diffusion in LDCs is however taking place
despite the fact that to this day not much hard evidence exists on the impact of ICT capital on
income growth in developing countries.
This study examines the impact of ICT investment on growth, using cross-country growth
regressions for 48 countries using the WITSA (World Information Technology and Services
Alliance) dataset, which unlike national statistics, has the advantage of being relatively consistent
across countries. It is found that contrary to “New Economy” proponents, ICT capital has a strong
positive impact on growth only in DCs, while its impact on income growth in LDCs tends to be
weak. This result, it is argued, is due to the rate of return of using ICT products being lower than in
DCs, as it is costlier to use ICT products in a developing country environment. At the same time, the
benefits of using ICT are lower in LDCs, given the lack of opportunities to use ICT capital in
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profitable ways.
経済発展における ICT の役割
国際通貨基金
Patrick Imam
20 世紀末「情報革命」の出現により、情報通信技術（ICT）への投資は発展途上国（LDC）
が先進国（DC）に潜在的に追いつくことを可能にするための重要な技術になるであろ
うと予測された。その結果、開発者コミュニティの中で広範囲に及ぶ推進力が生じ、先
進国（DC）と発展途上国（LDC）間の情報通信技術（ICT）投資の格差を近付けようと
した。そうしなければ発展途上国（LDC）がさらに下へと落ちていってしまうのではな
いかという不安がそこにあった。これにより、開発途上国において情報通信技術（ICT）
資本の影響により所得成長があるという確かな証拠が今までそれほど存在しないにも
関わらず、発展途上国（LDC）において情報通信技術（ICT）を普及させたいという意
見が強まっている。
本研究は、国家統計とは異なった WITSA（世界情報サービス産業機構）データセッ
トを使用している 48 の国々に対する国際的な成長退化を活用して、成長における情報
通信技術（ICT）投資の影響を考察している。
「新経済」擁護者に反して、情報通信技術
（ICT）資本は先進国（DC）内のみの成長に対する強力で前向きな影響があり、その一
方で発展途上国（LDC）における所得成長への影響は弱い傾向にあることがわかった。
この結果は、開発途上国環境における情報通信技術（ICT）製品の使用は費用がかか
るため、情報通信技術（ICT）製品の使用が先進国（DC）におけるものよりも低い利益
率のために生じた結果であると論じられている。同時に、情報通信技術（ICT）の使用
による利点は発展途上国（LDC）では低く、採算が取れる方法で情報通信技術（ICT）
資本を活用する機会が不足しているのである。
Compressed Learning in Industrial Upgrading
Seishi Kimura, Faculty of Economics, Fukushima University, Japan
China’ s impressive industrial upgrading in the last two decades cannot be achieved unless its
industrial firms quickly learned various kinds of technologies and skills. In other words, the
Chinese firms’ learning process has been “compressed” as they become to take wider and deeper
functions in globalizing production networks. In this presentation, I will describe a mechanism of
firm learning that underpins industrial upgrading. I will then discuss how and why the learning
process of Chinese firms has been compressed. I will finally discuss possible advantages and
disadvantages of such compressed learning for sustainable industrial upgrading in China.
産業の高度化における圧縮習得
福島大学経済学部
木村誠志
中国におけるこの 20 年の印象的な産業高度化は、企業が迅速に多様な技術およびス
キルを学んでいなければ達成できるはずはない。言い換えれば、グローバル化する生産
ネットワークの中のより広く、より深い機能を担うにつれて、中国企業の習得プロセス
は「圧縮されて」きた。この発表の中で、産業の高度化を支えた企業習得のメカニズム
について説明していく。次に、どのように、またなぜ中国企業の習得プロセスは圧縮さ
れてきたのかについて論じていく。最後に、中国の持続的な産業高度化に対するそのよ
うな圧縮習得の潜在的利益および不利益について検討する。
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71
Modularity Trap, Chinese Version:
A Working Hypothesis for Architectural Changes and Innovation in China’s Consumer
Electronic Industry
Lei SONG, Department of Political Economy, Peking University, China
During China’s record economic growth, the consumer electronics industry has become the leading
sector and the large-sized modular clusters are widely observed in this industry. Yet, although these
clusters realize the growth in size and numbers, they face the challenge to update the core
competence and to innovate continuously and independently. In order to analyze the origins and
limits of these clusters under the same analytic framework, we propose the following working
hypothesis in which modularization is used as the most important variable: together with FDI,
modularization makes it possible for Chinese corporations to enter the so-called high-tech industries
as homogeneous units of large-sized modular clusters while it locks in these corporations’ track of
innovation to ‘modularity trap, Chinese version’ under China’s institutional environment as well.
Furthermore, we test qualitatively the working hypothesis with the experiences of clusters in
consumer electronics industry (MP3 player and VCD/DVD player industries).
中国版モジュラリティの罠：
中国家電市場における建築的変化および革新に対する作業仮説
北京大学政治経済学部
Lei SONG
中国の記録的な経済成長の間、家電市場は主導部門となり、この業界において大型モ
ジュラークラスターは幅広く見られた。しかし、これらのクラスターがサイズおよび数
における成長を自覚しても、中核能力を更新し、継続的にまた自主的に革新するという
課題に直面している。同様の分析的フレームワークにおいてこれらのクラスターの起源
および限界を分析する為、我々はモジュール化を最も重要な変数として使用している以
下の作業仮説を提案する。中国の制度的環境のもとにおける「中国版モジュラリティの
罠」への革新に対する企業路線を確定する一方で、FDI と共に、モジュール化により、
中国企業が同質の大型モジュラークラスターユニットとしていわゆるハイテク産業に
進出することを可能にしている。さらに、家電業界（MP3 プレイヤーおよびビデオ・
DVD プレイヤー産業）におけるクラスターの経験をもとに、作業仮説の試験を質的に
行う。
How Globalization Drives Compressed Development
Timothy J. Sturgeon, Industrial Performance Center, MIT, USA
Abstract: It is commonly observed that the rapid growth of the Chinese economy has come with
increased trade openness in the West. This is indeed a necessary condition for the export-oriented
economic development. But this development path has also been influenced and enabled by the
competitive strategies of American, European, and Japanese firms, which established operations in
China, identified local firms as suppliers, transferred skills and technologies to them, invested in
them, sold advanced equipment and services to them, and consistently ordered from them in a
manner that pressured them to increase their industrial, technological, and logistical capabilities. As
a result, China has been able to establish and upgrade a critical set of domestic technological and
industrial capabilities with great rapidity. Without the push from advanced-economy firms seeking
to tap capabilities in China, the exports of goods and services would surely be more modest, in terms
of both total volume and technological content, than they are today. Economic development in China,
in other words, has been “compressed” by globalization; specifically by the formation of global
production networks. Research on the role of foreign investors and global buyers in driving
industrial upgrading in China reveals that not all links to the Chinese economy occur in the same
way, and that these differences have influenced the depth, breadth, and speed of industrial upgrading.
But how do we conceptualize these differences without getting overwhelmed by the specificities of
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industry and location? The Global Value Chains (GVC) framework can provide researchers with a
simple yet powerful method for conceptualizing governance patterns in cross-border production
networks by focusing on the content and character of linkages between discrete activities in the
value-added chain. The GVC governance framework is useful for comparative research because can
be applied to any industry and at any spatial scale. In this presentation, I will discuss the key
variables of the GVC framework: the complexity of transactions, the codifiability of transactions,
and the capabilities of supplier firms. I will then describe the five GVC governance types that can
be anticipated, absent other influences, when these three variables change: market, modular,
relational, captive, and hierarchy. I will conclude with a discussion of how these of different GVC
governance forms relate to the prospects for industrial upgrading in China.
グローバル化によってどのように圧縮開発が推進されたか
マサチューセッツ工科大学（MIT）インダストライアル・パフォーマンス・センター
（Industrial Performance Center）
Timothy J. Sturgeon
一般的に中国経済の急成長は西欧との増大した貿易の開放性に伴っていると言われ
ている。これは事実、輸出志向の経済発展には必要条件である。しかし、この発展進路
もまた、中国に事業を設置し、地元企業をサプライヤーとして認識し、スキルおよび技
術を持ち運び、投資して、高度な機器およびサービスを販売し、彼らに産業的・技術的・
論理的能力を高めるために圧力をかけるようなやり方で一貫して注文をするアメリカ、
ヨーロッパ、そして日本企業の競合する戦略によって影響を受け、可能となっていった。
その結果、中国は重要な国内技術的および産業的な能力を急速に手に入れ高めていった。
中国の能力を開拓しようとした高度経済企業の後押しがなければ、商品およびサービス
の輸出は総生産量および技術内容の両方において、今よりもより控えめなものであった
ことは確実であろう。中国の経済成長は、言い換えれば、特に世界的生産ネットワーク
の形式によるグローバル化によって「圧縮されて」いる。中国産業の高度化を推進にお
ける海外の投資家および世界的なバイヤーの役割に関する研究により、中国経済へのす
べての関連性が同様に発生しているわけではないこと、またこれらの違いが産業高度化
の深さ、広さ、そして速度に影響を与えていることが明らかになった。しかし、どのよ
うにしてこれらの相違点を産業の特異性および位置に圧倒されることなく、概念的に説
明できるだろうか。グローバルバリューチェーンのフレームワークは、付加価値連鎖に
おける別々のアクティビティ間の関連性の内容および特性に焦点を当てることにより
国際的生産ネットワークにおける統治パターンを概念的に説明する為の単純であるも
強力な手段を研究者に提供することができる。グローバルバリューチェーン統治フレー
ムワークは、すべての空間規模にてすべての産業に適用可能であるため、比較研究に有
効である。この発表では、グローバルバリューチェーンフレームワークの主要変数（商
取引の複雑さ、商取引の体系化能力、およびサプライヤー企業の能力）について論じて
いく。そして、これら 3 つの変数が変化して影響を受けないと予測しうる 5 つのグロー
バルバリューチェーン統治型（市場、モジュラー、相関的、専属、階層）について説明
していく。これらのグローバルバリューチェーン統治型がどのように中国の産業高度化
に対する見通しを関係するかに関する考察でまとめていく。
Taking East Asia Seriously: Development and Innovation in East Asia
D.H. Whittaker, Doshisha University, ITEC
From oriental despotism to Asia’s century, perceptions of Asia’s industrialization prospects have
undergone a major shift which has accelerated in recent years. Japan was the first to challenge the
belief that only the West had the requisites for successful industrialization. Interpretations of
Japan’s success first reached for ‘functional equivalents’ and particularist explanations such as
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73
culture. An alternative framework of ‘late development’ was then applied, with interest focusing
on the ‘developmental state’, and this was subsequently employed to explain success of the Asian
‘tigers.’ Enterprise entered the picture in its own right in the form of enterprise groups, which were
initially put down to market failures, but subsequently resource-based views. Such groups
capitalized on their ability to learn, and to apply process and production insights across unrelated
industries, rather than leveraging technology and specialized assets through related diversification.
Partly in response to the Asian upstarts, partly through marketization, growing shareholder
pressure, and modularization, the US corporate model underwent change in the 1980s, resulting in
de-verticalization, the growth of specialization and open innovation on the one hand, and integrated
contract manufacturing on the other, which developed into global production networks or value
chains. This offered new opportunities for East Asian industrializers, but new threats as well.
Late development learners were forced to upgrade at an accelerating rate, and to attempt to become
Schumpeterian innovators. In fact, compression of the time-scale forced them to become
simultaneous learners and innovators. Recent late developers have some advantages of
‘backwardness’ in the form of less investment in previously successful models, but new challenges
as a result of being forced to manage industrialization and post-industrialization, learning and
innovation, simultaneously, as well as the accompanying social tensions. Thus the state, as well as
individuals companies, is forced to engage in ‘compression management’. Approaches range from
‘conservative’ to ‘radical.’
東アジアの重視：東アジアにおける発展とイノベーション
同志社大学 ITEC
D.H. Whittaker
東洋的専制主義からアジア世紀にかけて、アジアの工業化の見通しは近年加速してい
る主要な変遷の下にある。日本は、工業化の成功への必要条件は西欧しか持っていない
という信念に初めて立ち向かった。日本の成功の解釈は、まず「機能的に等価なもの」
および文化といった個別主義者の説明を求めてその方向に向いたのであった。「後発開
発」の代替フレームワークは、「開発志向国家」に焦点を当てるという利害により適用
され、その後アジアの「虎」の成功を説明するために採用された。企業という概念はそ
れ自体に企業グループという形で取り入れられ、初めは市場の失敗に、後に資源基盤の
見解のせいにされた。そのようなグループは、彼らの習得および関連する多様化を通し
た技術および特殊資産を活用するよりもむしろ、非関連産業全体のプロセスおよび生産
洞察力を適用するために資本を投下した。
一部はアジアの成り上がり者に応えて、一部は自由主義市場（経済）への移行、高ま
る株主の圧力、およびモジュール化によって、米国企業モデルは 1980 年代に変化し、
その結果、非垂直化、特殊化の成長および一方では開放された改革、もう一方では統合
委託製造をもたらし、それは世界的生産ネットワークまたは価値連鎖へと発展していっ
た。これにより、東アジアの工業国に新たな機会がもたらされたが、同時に新たな脅威
ももたらされたのである。
後発開発「習得者は、加速した速度での高度化、およびシュンペータ流（Schumpeterian）
革新者になろうと試みることを強いられた。実際、時間スケールの圧縮により、同時に
習得者および革新者にならざるを得なかった。近年の後期発展国は以前に成功したモデ
ルへの投資を減らす形で「後進性」の利点をいくつか持っているが、新たな課題は、結
果として工業化および脱工業化を管理するように強いられ、社会的緊張を伴ったうえに、
同時に習得・革新をする結果となった。従って、個人企業同様に国家は、「圧縮管理」
に従事せざるを得ないのである。
「保守派」から「過激派」まで様々な姿勢が見られる。
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ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa, Doshisha Institute for Health Policy and Business, Doshisha University, Japan
Globalization of health resources such as advanced medicine or medical equipment, physicians,
nurses, and medical institution, as well as development of medical technology, are progressing. The
problem in this health resource on the move is a conflict in which Asian countries where export high
valued human resources like doctors and nurses contributes to support fundamental economic
infrastructure of Asian area and to maintenance development of the medical system in other
developed countries, while the correspondence to serious health problems, such as tuberculosis,
avian flu, and HIV which the Asian nations face is dependent on overseas financial support, and it
makes their public health system insufficient. In this presentation, I will comment, from the view
point of health policy and economics, that, in order to operate the fundamental public health system
in Asian countries and to reach a modernistic public health level, what kind of resources should be
introduced in what kind of form, as well as how Japan should take our position in this movement
発展するアジアの医療資源のなかで取り残された日本
同志社大学 医療政策・経営研究センター
Fumiaki Yasukawa
医療技術の進歩だけでなく、高度医薬や医療機器、内科医、看護師、医療機関といっ
たような医療資源のグローバル化は進んでいる。発展中の医療資源における課題は、医
師や看護師といった高価値の人的資源の輸出をしているアジアの国々が、アジア地域の
基礎的な経済基盤のサポート、およびその他先進国の医療体制発展の維持に貢献してい
る一方で、アジア国家が直面している結核や鳥インフルエンザ、HIV といった深刻な医
療問題への対応においては海外の財政支援に依存しており、それにより自国の公共医療
体制が十分でなくなるというある種の矛盾である。本報告では、医療政策および経済の
観点から、アジアの国々における基礎的な公共医療体制を機能させ、現代的な公共医療
レベルに到達させるために、日本はこの動向においてどのような位置を確保すべきか、
さらにどのような種類の資源をどのような形で導入するべきか、ということについて論
じていく。
Innovation and Health Care Value Chain
Wei Zhang, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, China
Health care value chain includes purchaser, insurer, provider, producer and intermediaries between
them and aims to benefit consumers, who directly interact with this value chain mainly through
providers. Producers have been traditionally considered the most innovative, and the challenge is
how the subsequent values can better benefit the consumers given the complexity and possible
constrains along the value chain. To address this issue, we offered a framework on the priorities and
mechanism of innovation in health care, which focused on organization innovation of providers and
insurers to assure that values from producers will reach and benefit the public. Recent developments
and trends on innovation on provider and insurer levels are also summarized.
Based on this conceptual model, we are developing an empirical study. .
イノベーションと医療のバリューチェーン
中国、北京大学光華管理学院
Wei Zhang
医療のバリューチェーンには医療の消費者、保険業者、医療従事者、生産者、および
それらの仲介者が含まれ、主に医療従事者を通してこのバリューチェーンと直接相互作
用する消費者に利益を与えることを目標としている。生産者は、従来最も革新的である
と考えられており、バリューチェーンに沿った複雑性および潜在的な制約を把握したう
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
75
えで、どのようにすれば、その後の価値がバリューチェーンに繫がり、それが消費者に
とっての利益になっていくかが今後の課題である。この課題に対応するために、我々は
優先事項におけるフレームワークおよび医療における革新のメカニズムを提示し、その
医療は生産者からの価値を公共利益へと到達させるために医療従事者および保険業者
の組織改革に焦点を当てた。また、医療従事者および保険業者レベルでの近年の発展お
よび動向も説明する。この概念的モデルに基づき、我々は実証的研究を進めていく。
The Development of Zhongguancun Science Park
An Empirical Study on a High Tech Industry Cluster in Beijing, China
Ying ZHANG
Zhongguancun Scientific Park, the Chinese silicon valley, has become the most innovative
high-tech district in China. In this paper, we investigate the development process of Zhongguancun
in order to answer the two questions: (1)how the Zhongguancun industry clusters form, and (2)where
its competitive advantage come from. We find the Zhongguancun came into being by itself at the
beginning, but the government played an important role during its development. The geographical
and institutional environment promoted its innovation.
中関村科技園区の開発
中国・北京におけるハイテク産業クラスターに関する実証的研究
Ying ZHANG
中国のシリコンバレー、中関村科技園区は中国のハイテク地区の中で最も革新的なも
のとなってきた。この論文では、中関村（Zhongguancun）の開発プロセスを調査し、
（1）
中関村の産業クラスターがどのように形成されてきたのか、
（2）競争上の優位性はどこ
からくるのか、という 2 点について言及する。当初、中関村は自然に発生的におこって
きたが、その開発には政府が重要な役割を果たしたことがわかっている。中関村科技園
区は地理的および制度的な環境によって改革は促進された。
76
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
2) Presentation Materials
*Materials by presenters who agreed to inclusion in this booklet.
Taking East Asia Seriously
Development and Innovation in East Asia
D. Hugh Whittaker
Overview
I TEC Beij ing For um
17 Mar ch, 2007
n
Taking East Asia Seriously
Ser iously
Developm ent and I nnovat ion in East Asia
n
n
D.Hugh Whit t aker
I TEC, Doshisha Universit
Univer sit y
Auckland Universit y
n
I nt r oduct ion: Tak ing East Asia
seriously
Lat e dev
elopm ent : developm ent al
developm
st at e and lear
ning com pany
learning
Sim ult aneous upgr ading and
innov at ion
Managing com pressed
pr essed
dev elopm ent
Taking Japan seriously
The developmental state
n
Ear
ly cult ural
Early
ur al explanat
ex planat ions: funct ional equivalent
equiv alent s
n
n
Moder
nizat ion debat es ( and pat t ern
ar iables)
Modernizat
er n vvar
n
Mult iple ( and polarized)
polar ized) pat hs t o indust rializat ion:
‘The Japanese fact or
y’
ory
n
n
Lat e dev
elopm ent as an alt ernat
developm
er nat ive perspect
per spect ive
n
n
Reverse
gence
Rev er se conver
convergence
n
n
As t he ent erprise group or conglom erat e
n
n
n
n
From ‘m arket
ar ket failure’
failur e’ t o ‘resource based view ’ ( RBV)
explanat
ex planat ions
Over - riding em phasis on indust rial policy, MI TI as
GHQ ( in C. Johnson ’s version)
I ron t riangle
Ent repreneurship ensured by above fram ework,
incent ives, st abilit y
Generalized int o an ‘East Asian m odel’
odel’
‘PostPost-industrial’
industrial’ changes in the
US
Belated entry of the corporation
n
Night wat chm an stat e versus developm ental st
at e
stat
n
Cont rast wit h t he Chandlerian US firm : unrelat ed
diversificat
div ersificat ion, em phasis on process, product ion,
learning
n
‘m id - t ech’
ry,, lim it at ions, pressures for ‘upgrading’
ech ’ ent
entry
upgrading ’
n
The Japanese/ Asian challenge
Market solut ions ( liberalizat ion, shareholder
capit alism )
Modularizat ion, vert ical disdis- int egrat ion , focus and the
specialist firm
Globalizat ion of product ion networks
net works
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
77
Taking East Asia Seriously
Development and Innovation in East Asia
D. Hugh Whittaker
Late development meets
globalization
n
Lear ning thr ough part icipat ion in GPNs
n
Par t s supplier ⇒ OEM ⇒ ODM ⇒ OBM?
n
The need for upgr ading ( again)
n
The r ole of t he ‘new argonauts’
argonauts’
n
Fr
om learning t o innov at ion
From
Bet ween open and closed innovat ion:
Em er ging m odels in Japan
Models of innovation
n
The cor por at e group
por at e act or s
gr oup and ot her cor
corpor
n
The Silicon Valley m odel, clust er s and st art ups
n
The inevit abilit y of hybrids
hy brids
Between learning and innovation:
compressed development
n
Closed
Innovation
(Old ‘Japanese
model’)
Reformed
Constructive
Japanese model
Relationship?
Semi-open,
new monozukuri
system, group
co-ordination, etc.)
Nascent
network model
(Technologyoriented startups,
co-ordinators,
universities)
Open Innovation
(Silicon Valley
model)
Sim ult aneous indust rializat ion and post indust rializat ion
n
Sim ult aneous learning and innovat ion
n
New advant ages of ‘backwardness’
backwardness’
n
Social tensions ( int ergenerat ional, gender, urban rural) and other dislocat ions
Sour ce: Wh it t ak er and Cole eds, Recov er ing Fr om Su ccess:
I nn ovat ion and tech nology m an ag em ent in Japan, 20 06
New roles for the state
78
n
New advant ages of ‘backwar dness’
dness’
n
Managing com pression
n
‘conser vative’
vative’ versus ‘r adical’
adical’ st ances
Conclusions: Beyond late
development?
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
ICT For Development In China: A Case For Diminished Expectations
Patrick Imam
INFORMATION REVOLUTION
ICT FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
CHINA: A CASE FOR DIMINISHED
EXPECTATIONS
ν
Patrick Imam
IMF
March 2007
ν
Until the “New Economy” hype at the
end of the 1990s, many economists
viewed ICT as the solution to
development
While the burst of the bubble led to
diminished expectations, many
economic policies are still encouraging
the diffusion of ICT
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF Board or
Management or IMF policy.
ICT AS A GENERAL PURPOSE
TECHNOLOGY
“NEW ECONOMY”
ν
ν
“the New Economy … [is] characterized by
higher long-term growth that is due to a
permanently higher growth rate in productivity
stemming primarily from the production,
adoption, and continued diffusion of ICT” (De
Masi et al., 2001)
Underlying Rationale: ICT is not a “specific”
technology, but a “general-purpose” technology
which has substantially larger returns
GPT is a technology that performs some generic function
for a large number of products and/or production systems
1.
GPTs exhibit a great deal of technological dynamism
2.
GPTs exhibit “innovational complementarities” with the
application sectors. Technical advances in the GPT make it
more profitable for its users to innovate and improve their
own technologies
3.
-> ICT leads to capital deepening and diminishes the costs of
coordinating economic activity within businesses
INITIAL EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
FOR NEW ECONOMY WEAK
ν
ν
“You can see the computer everywhere
but in the productivity statistics” (Solow)
leading to “Productivity Paradox”
Empirical work until end of 1990s showed
little effect of ICT on growth
ν
ν
ν
“Concentration” Hypothesis
“Mismeasurement” Hypothesis
“Time-lag” Hypothesis
ICT INITIATIVES IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
ν
Initiatives around the world to reduce the
“Digital Divide”
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
Malaysia: Multimedia Super Corridor ($20bn)
Egypt: Smart Village Project ($100m)
Okinawa Charter (2000) pledging $15bn over 5 years
by Japan
World Summit of Information Society (WSIS) by UN
ADB, World Bank and NGOs promote ICT on large
scale
Are these strategies efficient to promote growth
in developing countries?
END OF 1990s: EVIDENCE
STRONGER
ν
ν
General View is that ICT has been key for
productivity growth
Implication for developing countries
"I honestly believe that the new information
economy has potential, at home and around
the world, to lift more people out of poverty
more quickly than at any previous period in all of
human history" (Clinton, 2000)
COMPARISON OF VARIOUS
DIVIDES
TABLE 3: COMPARISON OF VARIOUS DIVIDES IN THE YEAR 2000
RELATIVE GAP BETWEEN RICHEST 20 VERSUS 20 POOREST AND 20 MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
MEASURED IN PPP US$ PER CAPITA
(adjusted f or population)
Internet Subscriber Gap
Richest vs Poorest
263.6
Richest vs Middle-Income
1.8
Mobile Phone Gap
162.4
2.1
PC Ownership Gap
148.0
1.6
Gap Telephones in Operation
89.9
2.0
GDP Per Capita Gap (PPP)
86.7
2.0
Television Set Gap
13.3
2.0
5.9
2.1
Radio Gap
NOT E: Developed Countries include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Swit zerland, UK, US.
Middle-Income countries include Argent ina, Barbados, Chile, Costa Rica, Croatia, Estonia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Israel, Kuwait ,
Malaysia, Mauritus, Mexico, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Uruguay, United Arab Emirates.
Developing Countries include Bangladesh, Benin, Bhut an, Burundi, Chad, Congo, Democrat ic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Lao, Malawi,
Mali, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Yemen, Zambia.
Source: All data used from ITU (2002), WDI (2002)
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
79
ICT For Development In China: A Case For Diminished Expectations
Patrick Imam
PROBLEM WITH EXISTING
STUDIES
WHAT IS PECULIAR ABOUT
DIGITAL DIVIDE
ν
ν
Digital Divide is widespread, but this divides exists with
respect to most technologies, without there being an
urgent drive to close this divide (cars, nurses, etc.)
ν
Method
Existence of relative technological gap not a cause of
concern
ν
Country-Coverage
-> Must justify the prioritization of ICT because gap is
larger, and because it is a GPT
One problems with most studies looking
at the effect of ICT on growth has been
the use of growth accounting
ν
Does ICT really have a large impact on growth in
developing countries?
GROWTH-REGRESSION
GROWTH-REGRESSION (CON’T)
Use Augmented Solow Model
α
α
α
Y
= α 0 + ICT ln s ICT + NON − ICT ln s NON − ICT + H ln s H
L
1− β
1− β
1− β
α + α NON − ICT + α H
− ICT
ln( a + n + δ )
1− β
where α0=lnA(0)+at, β=αICT+αNON-ICT+αH
ln
Y=KICT α ICT KNON-ICT α NON − ICT H α H (AL) 1 − α ICT − α NON − ICT − α H
y=
K
K
Y
H
, kICT= ICT , knon-ICT= non− ICT , h=
AL
AL
AL
AL
dk ICT (t )
= s ICT y (t ) − (a + n + δ )k ICT (t )
dt
Modify to take account of speed of convergence by using following
transformation
dk NON − ICT (t )
= s non− ICT y (t ) − (a + n + δ )k non − ICT (t )
dt
ln y (t ) = (1 − e − λt ) ln y * + e − λt ln y (0)
where λ = β (a + n + δ ) (where λ > 0 ) measures speed of convergence
dh(t )
= s H y (t ) − ( a + n + δ ) h (t )
dt
GROWTH-REGRESSION (CON’T)
GROWTH-REGRESSION (CON’T)
α
α
Y (t )
Y (0)
− ln
= θ ln A(0) + at + θ ICT ln s ICT + θ NON − ICT ln s NON − ICT
L(t )
L(0)
1− β
1− β
α
α + α NON − ICT + α H
Y (0)
+ θ H ln s H − θ ICT
ln( a + n + δ ) − θ ln
L(0)
1− β
1− β
ν
ln
θ = (1 − e − λt ) , Y(0) and L(0) refer to output and labour in the initial period
ν
WHY ICT HAS A LIMITED IMPACT ON
GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
GROWTH-REGRESSION (CON’T)
ν
TABLE 3: ESTIMATION OF GROWTH REGRESSION FOR THE 1993-2000 PERIOD
All Countries
(1)
(2)
Initial Income (y0)
-0.245 (***)-0.242 (***)
(0.065)
(0.763)
0.153 (***) 0.130 (**)
ICT Captial (sICT)
(0.053)
(0.050)
Non-ICT Capital (S NON -IC T) 0.151 (***) 0.196 (***)
(0.055)
(0.054)
0.400 (**)
Human Capital (sH )
(0.154)
ln (n+g + δ)
-0.108
-0.107
(0.125)
(0.118)
Constant
2.315 (***) 2.360 (***)
(0.811)
(0.154)
Adjusted R2
0.354
0.442
Developing Countries
(3)
(4)
-0.276 (***) -0.273 (***)
(0.082)
(0.077)
0.153 (*)
0.134 (*)
(0.079)
(0.075)
0.166 (**) 0.214 (***)
(0.065)
(0.065)
0.390 (*)
(0.201)
-0.110
-0.116
(0.201)
(0.187)
2.505 (**)
2.547 (**)
(1.021)
(0.954)
0.541
0.620
Middle-Income Countries (1)
(5)
(6)
-0.131
(0.126)
0.051
(0.107)
0.177 (*)
(0.081)
-0.573 (*)
(0.243)
-0.484
(1.491)
-0.263 (**)
(0.065)
0.092
(0.050)
0.093 (*)
(0.042)
-0.918 (**)
(0.207)
-0.710 (***)
(0.116)
0.153
(0.701)
0.670
0.944
Poorest Countries (2)
(7)
(8)
-0.373 (***) -0.369 (***)
(0.046)
(0.046)
0.087
0.066
(0.050)
(0.053)
0.120 (**) 0.149 (**)
(0.049)
(0.056)
-1.586
(1.526)
0.471 (**)
2.685
(0.207)
(2.140)
3.672 (***) 3.668 (***)
(0.667)
(0.664)
0.927
Note: Standard Errors are in Parentheses. (*)= significant at 10% level, (**)= at 5% level (***)= at 1% level
(1) Middle-Income Countries include: Argentina, Chile, Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea.
(2) Poor Countries include: Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Romania, Russia, Thailand, Turkey, Venezuela, Vietnam.
Use WITSA data-set (only available
data-set that differentiate between
different forms of ICT – IT, software,
telecommunication)
Quality-adjustment using data from
NIPA (National Income and Product
Account) of the US, and deflate ICT
expenditure
Characteristics of the poor in LDCs
TABLE 4: CHARACTERISTICS OF POOR PEOPLE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Average Characteristic
of the Poor in LDCs
Income
GNP Per Capita (PPP)
Poor People % Population
PCs/(1000) per capita
Fixed Telephone Lines/(1000) per capita
Mobile Phones/(1000) per capita
Radios/(1000) per capita
2,293
36.4
7.4
36.5
7.9
196
Education and Language
Female Adult Illiteracy (%)
Male Adult Literacy (%)
0.936
46
27
Rural
Rural Population % total
Rural Population Density (per km2)
Fixed Lines/(1000) in Largest City
67
483
171
Source: Kenny (2002) "Information and Communication Technology for Direct Poverty Alleviation:
Costs and Benefits" Development Policy Review, Vol. 20, p.3
80
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
ICT For Development In China: A Case For Diminished Expectations
Patrick Imam
AVAILABILITY OF CHEAP ALTERNATIVES
TO ICT IN LOW-INCOME ENVIRONMENT
LACK OF EDUCATED PEOPLE IN LDCs
REQUIRED FOR EFFECTIVE ICT USAGE
Surveys show that in low-income countries,
computer usage is low, by individual and firms
Limited demand for computer/Internet is
because “older” technologies, such as phones
are more cost-effective
Radio is also considered a better tool to acquire
information than Internet, with cost of
equipment much lower
These cheap alternatives better suited, due to
low budgets for the poor, estimated at $10 a
year for ICT
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
ν
LOW PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITIES OF
USING ICT IN LDCs DUE TO POOR
COMPLEMENTARY CAPABILITIES (CON’T)
LOW PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITIES OF
USING ICT IN LDCs DUE TO POOR
COMPLEMENTARY CAPABILITIES
ν
ν
ν
ν
Often held view is that e-commerce will bring
companies on a level playing field, as weak
capabilities can be eliminated
Even if a firm establishes website, which itself is
costly, it will not lead to increased sales, as it does
not substitute brand name
Reputational factors more important when
purchasing online than other factors (50 websites
account for 85% of sales revenues)
In LDCs, most purchases made online, with
websites used to obtain information. Lack of credit
cards, lack of reputation of security on websites,
merchandise return not available
ν
ν
ν
ν
LIMITED EMPLOYMENT CREATION
(THROUGH OUTSOURCING)
ν
ν
ν
Idea that “Death of Distance” will mean distance will not
matter anymore is wrong
Zero cost of distance only true for digital products
ICT will make geographical location irrelevant based on
assumption of no “agglomeration effects” (search
cost/communication cost)
ν
ν
ν
ν
Lower search cost does not lead to more economic activity
“Conversational” versus “Handshake” transactions
Only 5% of jobs around the world are “conversational” (ILO)
(e.g. data processing), which is about 12 million jobs
(conversational jobs also mostly low-skilled in English
speaking countries)
Low trickle down effects (e.g. Bangalore)
ν
Poor physical infrastructure to transport
goods (postal system)
Products sold online are mainly books, travel
and stationary, which are mainly produced by
DC
Digital products sold are mainly financial
information and online-dating
Food/clothing, in which LDC companies have
a comparative advantage, are not much sold
online
CONCLUSION
ICT promises are unlikely to be fulfilled in
developing countries in near future
LDCs should focus on basics (education,
physical infrastructure, improving
institutions)
Only when this complementary
infrastructure is in place will countries start
benefiting from ICT
ν
ν
ν
BUT ...
ν
Literacy/Language obstacle means ICT
cannot be used effectively
Biggest beneficiaries are those with tertiary
education, but they represent less than 10
percent in most LDCs
Even when people are literate, they mostly do
not read English or the other predominant
languages of the Internet
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA
Some East Asian countries, especially the
Tigers, have benefited from ICT production
and more recently consumption
However, all of them had a good “growth
enhancing institutions” in place, which
made usage of ICT profitable
ν
ν
ν
China currently pushes for high-tech projects
to help its development
It might be more appropriate to focus on
education, infrastructure and health, where
the social rate of returns are likely to be higher
Focus on low-technologies, particularly for the
Western regions might be more appropriate
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
81
On Industrial Structures in Japan and the Industrial Cluster Policy
Takao Sakakura and Kazunori Fujimoto
Overview
ν
On Industrial Structures in
Japan and the Industrial
Cluster Policy
ν
ν
March 17th, 2007.
Takao SAKAKURA and Kazunori FUJIMOTO
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and
Competitiveness, Doshisha University.
ν
What do we think about “Cluster”?
-- Definitions, Effects
What is the different point from earlier policies?
-- Industrial Policies in Japan
Our research results.
-- Models, Interviews
Toward international comparison in terms of
regional cluster policies.
1
１．Definition of Cluster
ν
ν
2
１．Definition of Cluster
Geographical Proximity
One (related) Industry
Produce synergy
［Martin et al 03］
ν
Marshall(1920)’s reasons for localization
[Krugman 91]
λ Pooled market for workers with specialized skills
A cluster is a geographically proximate group of
interconnected companies and associated
institutions in a particular field, linked by
commonalities and complementarities.
[Porter 98]．
λ Provision of nontraded inputs specific to an industry
in greater variety and at lower cost
λ Technological spillovers
Innovation
3
１．Effects of Cluster
4
２．Industrial Policies in Japan
Regional Policy
・balancing rural areas against big cities
[Kodama 06]
ν SME’s Policy
・dissolving the gap between big-firms and SMEs
[Matsushima 98]
global competition,
firm’s moving abroad
ν
Competitiveness
Agglomeration for Innovation
: Regional Cluster
Agglomeration for
Subsidiary trades
Time
5
２．Industrial Policies in Japan
6
３．Network Models
Open Networks for Acquainting and Innovating with Research results
SME’s Policy
Regional Policy
Research
Results
Actors(Nodes)
・Research Results Holders
・Business Support Institutes
・Firms
Relations(Links)
・for Catching Information
・for Making Partnerships
There is a big difference between developing
actors and developing their relations.
Absorptive capacities for catching
information and reliabilities for making
partnership are important issue.
Regional Cluster Policy
[Cooperation / Networks]
7
82
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
8
On Industrial Structures in Japan and the Industrial Cluster Policy
Takao Sakakura and Kazunori Fujimoto
３．Network models: Multi-Layer Networks
３．Network models: Multi-Layer Networks
Active
Active
Potential
Potential
Fundamental
Fundamental
Active links are generated based on Fundamental links.
9
３．Interviews with thought models
10
３．Network models: Business Phases
【Term】 May to June 2006.
【Purpose】
・confirming each different link was constructed in
Phase 1. Phase 2. Phase 3. Phase 4. Phase 5.
Expression
each different business phase.
Feasibility
studies
・investigating where the links came from.
Real
Development Business
Trial Products
Research
Innovation
(Potential or Fundamental).
【Objects】 5 business projects
(These are recipient of subsidy founded on “supporting new-alliance
program” of Small & Medium Enterprise Agency. )
= active links
[based on Ishikura 05 (revised for interviews)]
11
12
4．Toward International Comparison
Density of active links in a project for each
business phases.
◆Having a figure of
transactions between research
institutes and firms in each
region.
フェーズごとのP濃度・リンク数
Numberリンク数
of active inks
Period II
P濃度平均
Density
Period III
Period I
1
0.8
15
0.6
10
0.4
5
0
0.2
フェーズ１ フェー ズ２
Phase1
◆Evaluating the effects of
policy programs in terms of
finding business partners and
finding useful research results
for making new projects.
1.2
フェーズ３ フェーズ3.2 フェーズ４Phase5
フェーズ５
Density of active links
20
全リンク合計
All-link
P濃度
Pリンク合計
P-link
25
Japan：
・Kansai-Sience City
・Tsukuba Science City
・Kanagawa
・North Kyushu
China:
Zhongguancun
Germany:
Stuttgart
USA:
Philadelphia
North Europe:
Oulu
Policy program recommendation
for each business phase
0
13
Field Survey (Preliminarily)
【Term】 Sep. to Aug. 2006.
【Purpose】
・having a figure of transactions between research
institutes and firms in Kansai Science City.
・getting to the root of the network deficiency if
there is only a few amount of transactions.
【Respondent】 151 firms
14
Kansai Science City
KYOTO
KYOTO
OSAKA
OSAKA
(741 firms are selected from 1,523 firms in Kansai Science City for
the questionnaire distribution, which have high corporate
performance.)
NARA
NARA
＊Responsible Organization：Keihanna Center for New Industry Creation and Exchange.
15
16
Source: Foundation of Kansai Research Institute
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
83
On Industrial Structures in Japan and the Industrial Cluster Policy
Takao Sakakura and Kazunori Fujimoto
Leading Facilities & Companies in Wide Range
Knowledge Cluster
Initiative
MEXT
Start
Regions
1999
19
2000
18
budget
576 billion Yen
100 billion Yen
(2005FY)
Main Target
Business Projects Technology Seeds
Ｐｕｂｌｉｃ
Jurisdiction
Industrial Cluster
Program
METI
Ｕｎｉｖ．
17
BIO,Sustainable
Science Laser,etc
IT
ＣＯＭＰＡＮＩＥＳ
Table. Two Major Cluster Policies in Japan
松下電器 Panasonic
日本電気 NEC
京セラ KYOCERA
島津製作所 Shimadzu
オムロン OMRON
CSK CSK
NTTｺﾐｭﾆｹｰｼｮﾝ科学基
礎研究所 NTT
国際電気通信基礎技術
研究所 ATR
情報通信研究機構
NICT
ロート製薬 ROHTO
参天製薬 Santen
Human
積水ハウス Sekisui House
大和ハウス Daiwa House
地球環境産業技術研究機 国立国会図書館関西館
NDL
構
RITE
私のしごと館 VM
イオン工学研究所
Ion Eng.Institute
国際高等研究所 IIAS
日本原子力研究機構
JAERI
京都府農業資源研究セン
ター ARRC
奈良先端科学技術大学院大学 NAIST ,
同志社大学 Doshisha Univ. ， 大阪電気通信大学 OECU
18
Source: Foundation of Kansai Research Institute
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Others
Construction
The number of
respondents (%)
Service
Having transactions with research institutes
in Kansai Science City.
20%
Thinking high technology as an important
resource on business.
Wholesale
Thinking transactions with research institutes
as important resource on business.
Manufacturing
10（6.6%）
101（66.9%）
89（58.9%）
The local transactions in Kansai Science City are not
thick although firms tend to think high technology
and the transactions as important.
Information
19
20
Thank you.
Characteristics of promising firms for developing
transactions with research institutes：
• Thinking high technology as an important
resource on business.
• Thinking transactions with research institutes as
important
• Having functions experiences for making
transactions with research institutes (e.g.,
having experiences for the transactions)
→ potential core firms
The number of respondents which are
potential core firms was 36/151（23.8%）.
On Industrial Structures in
Japan and the Industrial
Cluster Policy
March 17th, 2007.
Takao SAKAKURA and Kazunori FUJIMOTO
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and
Competitiveness, Doshisha University.
21
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22
Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
Introduction
Compared with any problem in current healthcare system in the United States or Europe, or
in its progress of reforming, those in East Asia and the Southeast Asia area have been lesser notified
in Japan. As a general image for Japanese, Asian issue of health is just the problem of various
precautions against infectious disease including HIV, improvements of public health environment,
etc. in other words, it can be called as the objects of development assistance or “technical aide”, and
it seems to be less sensitive as a familiar problem in which Japanese people should be involved.
However, after a conclusion of the bilateral economic partnership agreement (Japan-Philippine
Economic Partnership Agreement: JPEPA) negotiated between Philippines and Japan, in last
summer, the relation of Japan and Asian countries in health care, especially focusing on the issue of
nursing care, began to be so real. This may be a good chance for us to know the actual condition of
health care in Asian countries which has a close relation geographically, and get to know a relation
with Japan.
In this essay, in order to clarify the vivid relationship between Japan and Asian countries in
terms of health care policy perspective, I will pay my attention to the situation and examine the
influences of Philippine where international movement of the medical workforce is vitally
implemented.
Several conclusions may be summarized beforehand ; 1) The Philippines is certainly faced
with the crisis of a “health workforce outflow” or “brain drain”, although the system of nurse supply
is moreover fixed, since wages are lower than other occupational descriptions or those in foreign
countries, and the domestic nursing labor market is in an oversupply state. And this situation may
induce the level lower of the Philippines health care (although a regional gap is in the situation). 2)
About the Japanese migration policy for Philippines nurses, both the nursing school and Nursing
Association have negative concerns for whether Japan being treated by evaluating the Philippines
nurse's capability correctly, and, at present, have not necessarily regarded as an attractive market.
Therefore, Japan should understand their view firmly, and should change our mind for considering
Philippine nurse as the mere cheap workforce for filling the shortage of the market. 3) In order to
establish Win-Win relationship between source countries and recipient countries in international
health workforce movement, the recipient side should consider the mechanism of money
contribution to source countries so that their health quality level can be maintained and improved.
1. Background of international nurse workforce movement
As same as other job description, the push factor of overseas outflow of health care worker
like nurses and physicians can be listed; lower wages, poor opportunity of job opening, political
insecurity and desire of skill up as specialist. And these are adversely understood as pull factors in
recipient countries side for which they are advantageous level of wages, good work environment,
political stability, and high medical care technology.
Except several countries including Japan, South Korea and Singapore, among many of
Asian countries the overseas outflow of workforce is so common, that receiving many amount of
money (remittances) through working out of their homeland (Figure 1, Table 1). Particularly
Philippine is a country which is continuing sending a majority of many nursing workforce to North
America, Europe, and the Middle East for many years. Though premised on the clear overseas
employment policy of Philippine government, the reasons enabling such a large number outflow are;
1) because there are existence of the excess supply in the domestic labor market or a high
unemployment rate, 2) the characteristic of trade structure that export of human resources is as
dominance compared with other industrial commodities, 3) the magnitude of the remittance from
overseas has great influences on domestic economy, etc. In addition, even if the high workforce
requirements in an overseas working place and the fact that they have been contributed to the
maintenance stability of health care in recipient countries reinforce the justification of the
Philippine’s nurse workforce policy.
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Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
While many studies on international movement of nursing workforce from the European
and American, or, say, recipient viewpoint have been carried out and described by such
“international” approach, there are not so many arguments from the “internal” or “national”
viewpoint which notes what kind of problem the overseas outflow of nursing workforce has caused
in the medical care in interested states. For example, the situation whether the domestic market of
nurse workforce in Philippine is in “excess supply” state which is a reason for admitting the overseas
outflow of nursing workforce is one question, and whether the present nursing supply is as much
sufficient as the expected nurse demand may be abundant is another one. Further, whether nurse's
wage level compares with domestic other industries is really low, whether the regional gap of
medical treatments level, such as among urban areas and rural part, is produced due to nurse's
overseas outflow, and what kind of expectations does it hold to the recipient countries are other
questions we must know. Since these points seldom argued until now, I will examine concretely
below.
2. Nurse supply-demand situation and its background in Philippine
According to the data of the Department of Labor and Employment(DOLE), stock of
323,349 registered nurses existed in 1998 and 401,367 will be in 2005. Among these, domestic
demand for nurses combining public and private sector total is 25,082 in 1998 and 37,892 in 2005,
while demand outside of the country is 150,885 and 237,212 in each year, that is, only 58% share to
total supply is demanded and remaining 42% is surplus (Table 2). However, since the standard of
national medical level is unknown, it is clearly whether this number is reflecting the actual surplus of
supply. Moreover, although 40 percent or more of nurses with license seem to have taken the post
of a different occupational description or it will not work at least as a nurse, it is hard to say that
domestic demand for nurse in Philippine may be enough filled even if it deducts foreign workers
because, even in Japan where argues about the difficulty of nurse reservation, around about 600,000
of 1,300,000 nurses have been potential workforce. On the contrary, the number of schools of
nursing is increasing every year, and the amount of nurse supply is increasing certainly. However, it
is also expected that a number of young who wish to become nurse may be unsuccessful candidates
of qualification holder because it indicates that only 45 to 52% of the graduated who tried the
national licensure examination have passed. Although there are no data explaining the lowness of a
ratio of successful applicants exactly, there is a researcher who points out the relative increase in the
student with low basic academic ability by rapid increase of the new school of nursing (Tan (2004)).
If only the half of the young who wish to become a nurse can acquire a license, and, among them, if
many nurses tend to go overseas instead of domestic work, it might not be so effective for increasing
nurse supply to the domestic market that even if the number of school increase. Since many of
such “unqualified candidates of nursing” who wish to prepare for the next licensure examination are
pooled at very low wages to cover the shortage of nurse in the hospital, the incentive of employing
qualified nurses in a hospital may have been spoiling (Satoh (2006)).
3. Wage level of nurse and physician
In order to know the actual condition of the “low wages” to which a nurse's overseas
outflow is urged, I compared nurse wages 1)with those in other domestic industries, and 2)with the
same of Thailand (Tables 3 and 4). Even in the case of private sector employment, the average
wage of domestic nurse are quite low comparing with other industries; for instance with 1/3 of
computer technicians and only about 60 percent of primary school teacher. On the contrary, in
comparison with Thailand, although it is lower than those of computer or a communication-related
engineer in Thailand (when it sees by a monthly salaried employee's national average), the
difference like in Philippine does not appeared. From this, we can say an average wage level of
medical staff in Philippine is low, and also can say this is one of the certain push factor to promote
highly number of nurse workforce outflow than in other Asian countries.
Thus, we may suppose there is a structural mismatching of the nurse demand - supply in
which in stages pathway of acquisition for filling domestic nurse demand does not work well, and
also the wage level does not serve any motivation to work hard in domestic market.
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Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
4. Trend and medical level of health resource arrangement of Philippine
How the existence of such push factors that promotes the outflow of the nurse workforce
affect both on the structure and quality of domestic health care in Philippine? Table5 expresses
macroscopic relation of the trend of population and the number of hospitals, the number of sickbeds
and the numbers of major medical workers in the Philippine at large. When comparing year 2000
with 2004, the number of hospitals in 100,000 indicate 2.24 and 2.06, the number of physician show
38.4 and 35.5, and the number of nurses indicate 61.7 and 53.1 respectively. These are an evidence
of decreasing the number of health resources in Philippine at large. Especially a reduction of nurse
is remarkable. Further, the number of beds also shows its decreasing from 105.9 to 99.2.
The population of Philippine is increasing a little more than about 2% of the annual rate,
and an aging rate is low compared with other developed countries. However, the numerousness of
infection disease problem as well as spread of HIV, peculiar to the tropics, are expected that a
reduction of a health resource on the whole has strong negative impact on the medical level of
Philippine. Further, Philippine, as an archipelagic country, has its unique problem reflecting the
imbalance of health resource allocation due to its geographical disparity (Fig. 2).
Shown in Table 6, although the number of medical institutions is increasing in some areas,
such as NCR (Manila metropolitan area), reduction in medical institution will also be seen even in
Mindanao Island where we are anxious about the problem of the peace, as well as an area near by
from the Manila metropolitan area. If it piles up with trend of the number of physicians
(government employed) and the number of nurses for every area, we can understand that this
tendency is just relevant with medical worker's downward tendency (Table7). In recent years,
inspired by the higher wages of nurse working out of the home country, many physicians have
re-acquired nursing license in a school of nursing, work abroad (so, the ratio of male nurse in the
Philippines is very high!). Such outflow of physicians and nurses who could not be delivered to the
domestic health market triggers off the continuous situation of serious shortage of medical workers
and close down of medical institution both in urban and rural area. Moreover, although the
devolution of health service is carried out by law revision of 1991, the regional gap of health revenue
and budget has become clear by this. In addition, in urban areas, the private health service like
United States type HMO is growing rapidly, and income differential have been induced the
structural gap in medical treatment for Philippine people (Sy (2003)).
5. Nurse workforce in Philippine and the migration policy in Japan
By the official data of year trend of the overseas worker by Philippine Overseas
Employment Administration: POEA, it turns out that the outflow of the nurse workforce which had
greeted the peak in 2001 is recently decreasing henceforth. This trend is reflecting the fact that the
bilateral agreement with some recipient countries is being improved in recent years, rather than the
policy shift in Philippine. In this modification, the guarantee of the quality of migration nurses
from Philippine is asking for in USA and UK, and then the requirement of acceptance is set severer
than before. For example, in some case in US, extraordinary work experience in one of major
hospitals in Manila is required when Philippine nurses apply to work at the hospital in US. Such
modification at entry level requirement, however, may be promoting some mal- distribution of
domestic nursing supply and demand on the labor market, as seen previously.
Observing the problem of overseas working only from the migration policy perspective in
recipient countries may disturb our right understanding about movement and its influence of the
health resource in Philippine. In other words, when considering the outflow problem of the nursing
workforce as a “domestic issue” of Philippine correctly, it can only be accepted with efforts, not only
for the argument on the validity of the number or acceptance, but also the effort of solution in
Philippine itself, and we can listen to the real intention of the expectation for the country. Since
Japan will be faced with this challenge through JPEPA, it needs to understand the situation of the
Philippine more and needs to take suitable correspondence. Then, let us hear about the opinion and
the consciousness of the representative of three organizations where deeply concerned with sending
nurse to Japan about the contents of an agreement in JPEPA: Director of the Department of Labour
and Employment (DOLE), Dean at University of Philippine, School of Nursing and the president of
Philippine Nursing Association.
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Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
(1) About the validity of the number of nurses which the Japanese government announced (being
two years at the beginning 400 nurses)
<Director of DOLE>
It is reasonable. However, it is necessary to establish the appropriate procedure to utilize
the ability of Philippine nurse when they ready to admit.
< Dean at UP>
Number is impressed very few. So it is expected that the impact given to the domestic
market in Philippine is not so large.
<President of PNA>
Direct impression over a number is not obtained. However, the concern about the job
status when working at Japanese hospital is higher than the problem of acceptable numbers.
In which Philippine nurse should be equally treated with Japanese even if the number of
accepted nurses may be large, or it must not be an “auxiliary person” not only on the job
but also during the trainee.
(2) Expectation in respect of treatment in workplace
<Director of DOLE>
Comparatively optimistic
< Dean at UP>
It is anxious whether Philippine nurse may force to take the post of different business (for
example, lower skilled care) from an expected role of nurse specialist. So it should be
asked for the same treatment and environment as Japanese nurse.
<President of PNA>
There is strong concern with the fairness of possibility to receiving fringe benefits and
career improvement in Japan. Since Japan sets severer condition of language acquisition
than other developed countries, the salary should be set up more highly than those in
others.
(3) Validity of the requirements for working by Japanese government
<Director of DOLE>
Although Japanese language acquisitions are the severe requirements on working, since
geographical convenience to Japan rather than North-West countries can be advantage for
the nurse or care worker who would be destined for Japan, it seems an attractive market.
< Dean at UP>
It seems very difficult for us to pass Japanese licensure examination successfully. It is also
apprehending whether they must waste their technical knowledge and a career due to
unskillful of Japanese language, although they hold enough skill and knowledge in nursing.
Moreover, it is too long to set maximum three years of staying before qualification
acquisition. So, compared with the U.S., UK, and Saudi Arabia, Japan is hard to be
attractive destination for us.
<President of PNA>
The requirements for examination success in Japanese are obviously high hurdles compared
with those in other countries. We could not judge clearly whether Japanese market is
dominant for us if considering the guarantee of working environment including job status,
the possibility of salary and career improvement, etc. Therefore Japanese government
should propose more advantage conditions than other countries associated with nurse work
environment, protection from a dishonest trader, fringe benefit and welfare program, career
improvement, and salary.
Summarizing above,
1) Instead of optimistic manner in Philippine government, the view of nursing community is very
severe on a position about the contents of JPEPA and its validity.
2) There are some distrust about lower evaluation to capability and role of Philippine nurse.
3) The requirements for Japanese acquisition may become a serious obstacle against smooth
movement of nurse to Japan. Therefore, unless Japan offers higher salary and better work
environment as well as benefits by which overcoming this obstacle, Japanese advantage as
destination of workplace is low.
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Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
It is calculated that average cost of education for preparation until obtaining nurse license in
Philippine would be from about 4,000 to 7,000US dollars. Since this amount of money is not easy
for common Philippine people to earn, it is usually provided by the remittance from family or spouse
living and working out of home land. Further, the average unemployment rate in Philippine indicates
10.9%, very high even among Asian countries in 2004. So, it will be reasonable even if Philippine
nurses think that there is no meaning to work at Japanese workplace if they may be content with the
ancillary business in lower wage which do not balance their original capability after mastering
Japanese by giving up other opportunity to work and acquiring nurse qualification passing through
intensive competition at homeland (in case of those who acquired the qualification of nursing in
changing their physician position, it is still more so. Moreover, supposing there are many
comparatively highly-educated persons among care workers in Philippine, some misunderstand may
occur between their pride, and the contents of job which they perform and salary obtained in Japan.
Low birthrate and aging in Japan certainly decrease their number and the ratio of active
workforce requiring giving care towards 2025 (Table 8-1,8-2). And substantial nursing home and
fullness of home care are immediately needed with abolition of care- oriented facilities and beds. It
is so unreal to expect that the pursuer of care worker and nursing workforce will become more
abundant in the future than present, that certain reasonable policy of workforce reservation must be
considered. Then, a possibility that Philippine nurses and care worker will play an active part in
Japanese care market as countable manpower will be by no means low. However, even if Japan
expects so, it may be highly possible that Philippine will change their destination from Japan to other
countries with feeling less advantage in Japanese market. Therefore if we would like to obtain
sufficient nurse workforce from Philippine, it is necessary to set out salary and work environment at
appropriate level to which the conviction of Philippine nurses goes well.
6. The Philippines and Japan: toward the Win-Win partnership
Considering carefully the health care problem in Philippine generated by higher nurse
outflow, as long as future demands for nursing care workforce in Japan, it is not desirable for
Japanese government to set the migration policy which makes Philippine nurse's acceptance harder
or their wage lower than needed. Rather, we should show a vision and correspondence about how
Japan should contribute to cultivate the quality and humanity of Philippine nurses as a member of
Asia, realizing the skill mix of Japanese and the Philippines well.
One method I can suggest is to build mutual cooperation scheme between Japan and
Philippine to supply funds and technology required for providing and training qualified nurses in
their homeland corresponding to acceptance of the excellent nurse workforce from Philippine.
Although the ODA assistance Japan has subscribed a large amount to many Asian countries is
contributing to some extent to Philippine economy or health care from a viewpoint of “assistance”, it
is less expected to invite appropriate number of qualified Philippine nurses (Table 9). Moreover,
although assistance funds, such as ODA, are usually limited to the project of nationally operated, in
order to improve the community level health care facilities and environment as well as school of
nursing in domestic Philippine where decentralization and privatization are progressing, it may
induce higher effect if funds provide to such projects in individual or community basis.
Here I show one example of such Win-Win cooperation for both senders and recipients of
nurses. Now, the partnership agreement about fund offer is contracted between the Philippines
General Hospital (PGH) at Manila and the Johns Hopkins University Hospital (JHUH) in the United
States. This is a system by which a donation is paid to PGH according to the number of employees at
JHUH as qualified nurse from PGH. Thereby, PGH carries out the new educational program which
raises a nurse's quality, and at the same time, it is performing the Philippines nurse reservation so
that it can respond to the shortage of a nurse of JHUH. Of course, since the hospital inviting nurses
offer an appropriate fund, this partnership will be limited to relatively large institutes like university
hospital. However, for example, is it unreal to build the same system in Japanese local
government? While local governments which invite several numbers of Philippine nurses who
have graduated from, for example, suburban area of Manila where comparatively scarce health
resource exist set their wage at the level of little bit lower than those for Japanese, instead, by
providing some amount of donation to such suburban area, we can also expect to be consistent
sustainable relationship with respect both of reserving overseas nurses and care worker, and of
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Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
assistance for health care system improvement in Philippine.
From conventional image, such partnership may be felt so abruptly. However, anticipating
coming new bilateral agreement among Thailand or Vietnam, etc. it is not desirable, from the
viewpoint of Asian cooperation, to pursue only the interest of recipient countries without regarding
any problem exist in source countries. If we wish to contribute to support and improve any Asian
health care problems, we should propose the program inducing Win-Win partnership on our own
initiative.
Acknowledgement
The author thanks to all who provide helpful advices and suggestion for this essay.
Especially I thank to Mr. Hiroshi Yoneyama, advisory officer at JETRO Manila center, and Dr. Leah
Primitiva G. Samaco-Paquiz, a board member of PNA for their great assistance for me.
Bibliography
ILO, “Yearbook of Labour Statistics 2004”
National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), Philippine Statistical Year Book 2005”.
Iredale Robyn,(2000), “Migration Policies for the Highly Skilled in the Asia-Pacific Region,”
International Migration Review34(3), 882-906
Lorenzo F.M.E, “Philippine Case Study on Nursing Migration,” presentation in Bellagio Nurse
Migration Meeting 2004
Sy P.A. (2003), “Welfarism versus Free-Enterprise:Considerations of Power and Justice in the
Philippine Healthcare System,” Bioethics17(5-6),555-566
Tan J.Z.G,(2004), “The National Nursing Crisis: 7 Strategic Solutions,” mimeo
The volume for Bangkok Japanese chambers of commerce, “Thailand economy 2004-2005 edition”
Shinobu Satoh, “International labor market which changes by globalization,” Akashi Shoten2007
Table1. Selected developing countries received
the high remittances (1999)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
10
15
16
18
19
20
Fig.1
90
country
Amount of remittance
(million of US $)
% of
GDP
11,097
2.6
Philippine
7,016
8.9
Mexico
6,649
1.7
Turkey
4,529
2.3
Egypt
3,196
4
Bangladesh
1,803
4.1
Pakistan
1,707
2.7
Thailand
1,460
1.1
Brazil
1,192
0.2
Indonesia
1,109
0.8
Sri Lanka
1,056
6.9
Tunisia
761
4
Peru
712
1.2
Sources: World Bank (1999)
India
Asian skilled worker on the move
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
Source: Iredale (2000)
Table 2. Nuese supply and Demand in Philippine
Population
Supply (number of
registered nurse)
Demand
Local
a) public agencies
b) private agencies
c) education
a)+b)+c)
International
Total demand
Surplus
1998
73,147,776
2005
85,261,000
323,490
401,367
17,574
18,416
7,535
19,476
2,078
27,160
37,892
150,885
237,212
275,104
178,045(58% of supply)
160,145
128,065(42% of supply)
Source: Department of Health
Table 3 Monthly wage rates in different domestic occupation
Occupations
Average monthly wage rates
Peso)
Metallic miners
12,926
Mining Engineering
15,778
Food Technologist
13,657
Publishing and Printed
14,566
Bus conductors
8,570
(in
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Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
Air transport services
22,354
Banking tellers
13,120
Insurance actuaries
36,891
Accountants
72,803
Architects
13,561
G.E.S.teachers
14,486
Medical doctors
17,069
Professional Nurses
8,669
Source:Bureau of Labour and Employment Statistics
Table 4 Wage rate comparison with Thailand (employees only)
Philippine(in Peso)
Thailand(in Bats)
Occupation
Monthly wage rate
Monthly wage rate
Mining
12,926
9,684
Food
13,657
8,324
Architects
13,561
9,680
Teachers
14,486
9,622
Professional nurses
8,669
9,632
Source: Department of Labor and Employment
Table 5 Health facilities and government health workforce 1999-2004
Item
Hospitals
Government
Private
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1,794
648
1,146
1,712
623
1,089
1,708
640
1,068
1,739
662
1,077
1,719
662
1,057
1,725
657
1,068
Hospital-population
ratio(in 100,000)
Bed capacity
Government
Private
2.23
83,521
43,507
40,014
Bed-population ratio
(in 100,000)
Government Health
Manpower
Doctors
Nurses
total population
79,444
40,202
39,242
85,191
45,420
39,771
84,861
45,405
39,456
105.9
82,880
41,933
40,947
99.2
7,893
7,667
7,776
7,741
7,799
7,404
2,948
2,943
38.4
4,724
61.7
2,957
3,021
3,064
4,819
4,720
4,735
2,969
35.5
4,435
53.1
Doctors per100,000
Nurses per 100,000
81,016
42,384
38,632
2.06
4,945
76,500,000
83,540,000
Source: Department of Health
92
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
Table6
year
Regional number of medical institutes
total
1995
168
1996
169
1997
173
1998
167
1999
174
2000
179
2001
177
2002
178
2003
181
2004
192
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
NCR
42
126
42
127
43
130
43
124
44
130
49
130
50
127
51
127
52
129
51
141
CAR
28
28
29
29
32
29
29
18
30
27
24
20
32
21
27
18
30
20
37
20
Reg.1
34
73
35
76
36
78
26
71
37
86
36
81
37
82
38
87
37
84
40
85
2
36
41
36
44
38
43
38
43
39
40
38
45
39
44
38
42
37
45
36
43
3
45
114
48
124
47
131
28
102
47
127
43
112
51
134
56
136
53
13
59
136
4
93
156
87
160
97
171
102
174
91
174
98
179
80
166
95
176
97
177
98
179
5
48
91
47
92
47
89
48
83
50
80
50
84
50
77
50
73
49
72
49
75
6
50
30
55
28
56
30
54
28
53
29
40
23
50
19
53
19
53
19
57
20
7
44
50
45
50
51
45
52
47
55
46
56
46
56
46
57
46
60
46
42
47
8
48
26
45
27
48
28
46
31
49
32
48
30
48
27
48
28
49
27
40
24
9
30
50
28
50
28
55
29
50
30
50
30
44
28
43
24
41
25
40
30
42
10
19
73
22
78
23
77
22
71
23
77
17
56
23
64
26
63
30
65
30
70
11
24
145
29
146
33
154
30
147
32
137
34
134
32
119
33
123
18
93
21
85
12
13
74
15
72
18
75
18
76
20
79
20
74
20
71
20
69
23
72
24
74
Caraga
ARMM
16
24
16
25
33
32
33
28
33
28
33
26
33
25
34
26
35
25
33
21
19
10
21
10
15
5
18
4
15
4
7
5
11
3
11
3
12
6
10
6
Source: Department of Health
Fig 2
Local division in Philippine
Source: Lorenzo(2003)
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93
Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
Table 7 relationship between regional trend of health human resources and institutes
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Gov.
Prv.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
Dr.
Ns.
NCR
43
714
124
838
44
696
130
849
49
702
130
861
50
685
127
823
51
658
127
745
52
678
129
757
51
648
141
686
7
52
239
47
431
55
245
46
423
56
230
46
399
56
244
46
416
57
229
46
379
60
223
46
348
42
213
47
313
29
18
30
27
24
20
32
21
27
18
30
20
37
20
46
31
49
32
48
30
48
27
48
28
49
27
40
24
CAR
75
140
73
138
75
138
79
140
85
159
84
159
80
150
8
141
203
136
217
139
221
134
226
153
233
162
229
160
220
Reg.1
159
227
162
217
157
216
159
214
158
203
161
192
167
231
9
29
66
50
180
30
87
50
173
30
88
44
204
28
97
43
205
24
90
41
196
25
94
40
200
30
87
42
182
26
71
37
86
36
81
37
82
38
87
37
84
40
85
2
38
43
39
40
38
45
39
44
38
42
37
45
36
43
3
83
158
117
202
115
210
116
206
175
267
98
172
107
204
28
102
47
127
43
112
51
134
56
136
53
13
59
136
82
124
80
152
87
172
117
242
99
189
138
265
137
252
30
147
32
137
34
134
32
119
33
123
18
93
21
85
10
22
71
23
77
17
56
23
64
26
63
30
65
30
70
4
203
295
236
605
246
349
229
372
297
382
294
456
290
443
102
174
91
174
98
179
80
166
95
176
97
177
98
179
100
160
197
301
155
244
118
198
79
161
68
126
71
139
18
76
20
79
20
74
20
71
20
69
23
72
24
74
11
395
620
318
613
334
653
340
635
350
648
327
589
332
585
12
79
154
59
126
61
119
61
132
84
158
163
245
114
190
5
48
147
83
257
50
159
80
279
50
155
84
276
50
181
77
326
50
190
73
338
49
191
72
350
49
184
75
247
Caraga
33
63
28
83
33
69
28
148
33
73
26
109
33
69
25
134
34
79
26
130
35
81
25
126
33
90
21
117
Source: Department of Health
Table 8-1 aging ratio and workforce
aging ratio(%)
2004
2015
2025
21
26
28.7
62,320
51,820
Workforce(1,000) 66,420
94
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
6
54
227
28
385
53
251
29
424
40
252
23
411
50
263
19
467
53
226
19
433
53
227
19
410
57
236
20
393
ARMM
18
75
4
134
15
63
4
78
7
74
5
142
11
65
3
80
11
69
3
99
12
75
6
111
10
53
6
82
Asian Health resources on the move, except Japan?
Fumiaki Yasukawa
Table 8-2
Nurse demand and supply in Japan
2018
2022
Hospital
814,000
875,000
Clinic
244,000
253,000
demand Care facilities
Other
173,000
83,000
194,000
79,000
1,314,000
1,401,000
Current workforce 1,251,000
1,391,000
Total
New entrants
Supply returnees
retirees
51,000
85,000
56,000
98,000
115,000
154,000
Total
1,272,000
1,391,000
Source: Ministry of Health, Welfare and Labour
Table 9 Japanese ODA expenditure by countries
Net disbursement basis; $million
Type of Aid
ODA
Country/Region
Grant Aid
Government
Total
Loans
Grant Aid
Technical
Total
Cooperation
882.91
1,217.75
2,100.66
4,529.92
6,630.58
393.91
549.14
943.04
2,977.58
3,920.62
-
0.1
0.1
-
0.1
Cambodia
27.62
23.25
50.87
-
50.87
Indonesia
100.54
130.8
231.35
1374.49
1605.84
Laos
86.22
32.03
118.25
14.29
132.53
Malaysia
1.27
68.49
69.76
52.85
122.61
Myanmar
9.08
15.47
24.55
9.63
34.18
Philippines
82.23
92.08
174.3
238.68
412.98
Singapore
-
1.27
1.27
-
1.27
Thailand
2.09
123.99
126.08
754.18
880.26
Vietnam
84.87
61.66
146.53
533.46
679.98
Middle East
274.53
132.68
407.21
136.94
544.15
Europe
133.48
57.33
190.82
-39.7
151.12
Africa
693.08
221.2
914.27
80.35
994.63
Central/South America
256.18
323.01
579.19
235.22
814.41
Oceania
69.72
53.56
123.29
14.95
138.23
30.11
1,193.60
1,223.70
0.89
1,224.60
3,199.16
5,539.17
4,958.58
10,497.76
Asia
ASEAN
Brunei Darussalam
Others
Total
2,340.02
Source: Japan's ODA Annual Report 1999
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95
How Does Globalization Drive Compressed Development?
Timothy J. STURGEON
INDUSTRIAL
PERFORMANCE
CENTER
How Does Globalization Drive
Compressed Development?
TIMOTHY J. STURGEON, Ph.D.
Senior Research Affiliate, Industrial Performance Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ITEC (COE) Research Fellow, Doshisha University, Kyoto Japan
ITEC Beijing Forum: Innovating East Asia
Organised by ITEC, Doshisha University and Department of Political Economy, Peking University
March 17, 2007, The School of Government, Peking University
Compressed Development - Positive outcomes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Accelerated wealth creation (very rapid expansion of middle class)
Accelerated industrial development (global value chains)
Accelerated urbanization (internal migration)
Accelerated economic specialization (clusters)
Accelerated sectoral transitions (services)
Accelerated demographic transitions (rising life expectancy, later marriage)
Accelerated demand for higher education (creates new opportunities,
especially for women)
• Accelerated economic globalization (trade, inward and outward investment,
global value chains)
Compressed Development - Negative outcomes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Deindustrialization, unemployment, and underemployment
Urban sprawl and chaotic migration
Lock out of innovative roles in global value chains
Environmental degradation
Failing social cohesion
Hollowing out from outward investment?
Geopolitical tensions of massive trade imbalences
Compressed Development - Research questions
•
•
•
•
•
Unique to China, the BRICs, or…?
Will there be any other way to develop in the 21st Century?
Roles for the state?
Variation in corporate strategies (Japanese, American, European)
Impact of GVC governance modes on industrial upgrading
 Sequential, staged development processes are less important than in the
past
 Autarkic development paths are unworkable
 Capitalism has always been very disruptive and uneven, but quantitative
change can bring qualitative change
Research approach
• Empirical research in China
Policy questions
•
How to develop and integrate specializations?
•
•
How to turn negative outcomes into opportunities?
Models for shared prosperity?
– Cluster specializations
– Global specializations
– Clusters
– Global value chains
• Comparative global research (India, Africa, ASEAN, USA, Europe, Japan)
– Hold industries constant
–
–
–
–
• Research on global industries and firms
–
–
–
–
Focus on large firms
Multinational firms
Global buyers
Global suppliers
•
How to leverage various modes of global integration?
– Trade
– Outward investment
 Global Value Chains
The governance of global value chains: an
analytic framework
Summarized in a paper with:
Gary Gereffi, Duke University; and John Humphrey, IDS
In English: Review of International Political Economy, 12(1) 2005
In Chinese: Comparative Studies, March, 2007
Summary of approach with related literature can be found at the
Global Value Chains Initiative website:
www.globalvaluechains.org
96
National
Regional
Global
How to include Africa, Latin America, and other places being bypassed by global
prosperity?
Trends in Global Value Chains
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increased outsourcing
Computerization of product design
Computerization of process technology
Formalization and segmentation of work tasks (e.g., services offshoring)
Increasing market volatility and industry clock-speed (Fine)
Increasing geographic scope of production systems
Better integration of geographically dispersed production systems
Increasing services trade
The rise of a new, global-scale supply-base
Rising affiliated trade (multinational firms, but may be global suppliers…)
 The global value chains framework is an overarching rubric that can help
to tie these trends together
 New features are global suppliers, global buyers, and value chain
modularity, which eases coordination between the two.
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
How Does Globalization Drive Compressed Development?
Timothy J. STURGEON
Industry studies are important, but not sufficient
Distribution of industrial capabilities vary by industry
Labor/skill requirements, costs, and availability vary by industry
Product characteristics vary (size and weight, last-minute configuration)
Technologies for design, production, and supply-chain coordination vary
Regulations differ by product and industry
Distinct business cultures
Institutional factors vary (rules, regulations, certifications, insurance, etc.)
1.
Transaction Costs Economics
Key concept: Asset specificity
Academic field: Institutional economics
2.
Production Network Theory
Key concepts: Trust, reputation, repeat transactions, social networks,
geographic proximity, power
Academic fields: Economic sociology, economic geography
 “Industry studies,” firm level research, including qualitative research
 Problem: how to aggregate findings and set policies.
3.
Complementary Competencies
Key concepts: Resource view of the firm, learning, core competence,
co-evolution (bi-lateral and industry levels)
Academic fields: Strategic management, operations management,
evolutionary economics
Three Variables
• Three variables
1. Complexity of information required for a
transaction
• Two options for each - High or Low
• Eight possible outcomes
2. Extent to which this information can be
codified
3. Supplier capabilities in relation to a
transaction’s requirements
The Matrix
Complexity of
transactions
Ability to
codify
transactions
Discard Three Combinations
Capabilities
in the
supply-base
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
High
High
High
High
Low
High
High
High
Low
High
Low
Low
Outcome:
Value
Chain
Governance
Complexity of
transactions
Ability to codify
transactions
Capabilities in
the supply-base
Outcome: Value
Chain Governance
Low
High
Low
Suppliers excluded
from chain
Low
Low
Low or High
Unlikely to occur
Low
Low
While this combination does not yield
a governance type, per se, it is an
extremely important outcome because
it is the reality for the vast majority of
suppliers in developing countries.
Five GVC Governance Types
Five GVC Governance Types
Ability to codify
transactions
Capabilities in
the supply-base
Governance
Type
Network
org.
forms
Market
Low
High
High
Modular
High
High
High
High
Relational
High
Low
Captive
High
High
Low
Hierarchy
High
Low
Low
Degree of
explicit
coordination and
power
asymmetry
End Use
Modular
Relational
Lead
Firm
Lead
Firm
Price
Full-package
Supplier
Relational
Turn-key
Supplier
Supplier
Suppliers
Component
and Material
Suppliers
Component
and Material
Suppliers
Customers
Captive
Lead
Firm
Hierarchy
Integrated
Firm
Low
Value
Complexity of
transactions
Market
High
Chain
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Theoretical Underpinnings
(starting point: industrial organization)
Materials
Low
Captive
Suppliers
Degree of Explicit Coordination
Degree of Power Asymmetry
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
High
97
How Does Globalization Drive Compressed Development?
Timothy J. STURGEON
Some Dynamics in Global Value Chain Governance
Global value chain dynamics:
Opposing forces
Governance
Type
• Codification vs. innovation
• Increasing supplier competence vs new suppliers
and new requirements
• Stable value chain roles (process upgrading) vs.
competitive bundling and re-bundling (functional
upgrading)
Market
Low
Modular
High
Product Firm
Electronic design
SMT placement
Solder Re-flow
Test
High
High
High
High
Low
High
High
Low
Hierarchy
High
Low
Low
increasing complexity of transactions (harder to codify transactions, effective decrease in supplier competence)
decreasing complexity of transactions (easier to codify transactions effective decrease in supplier competence)
better codification of transactions (open or de facto standards, computerization, digitization)
de-codification of transactions (technological change, new products, new processes)
increasing supplier competence (decreased complexity, better codification, learning)
decreasing supplier competence (increased complexity, new technologies, new entrants)
New product introduction in electronics
manufacturing
Product Firm
Final Assembly
Industrial design
Electronic design
(Gerber file)
Contract Manufacturer
Circuit board layout
SMT placement
Solder Re-flow
Final Assembly
Design for performance (size, weight, speed, power consumption)
IC Design House
Foundry
Circuit geometry
Lithography
Deposition
Test
IC Design House
Dicing
(GDS2 file)
Electronic design
Foundry
Circuit geometry
Lithography
Deposition
(GDS2 file)
(re)DFx
•Design for manufacturability (yield)
•Design for cost reduction
•Design for test
•Design for reliability (quality) and repair
•Design for supply chain availability
•Design for environmental compliance and recycling
“Pinch point” in the flow of
activities (Baldwin and Clark)
Codified, standardized hand-off
at the inter-firm link
GVC Governance Types
Links to Industrial Upgrading and Policy
98
Test
(Gerber file)
Design for performance (size, weight, speed, power consumption)
Electronic design
Capabilities in the
supply-base
Captive
Contract Manufacturer
Circuit board layout
Ability to codify
transactions
Relational
New product introduction in electronics
manufacturing
Industrial design
Complexity of
transactions
Governance Type
Linkage mechanism
Firm roles and
competencies
Policy emphasis
Market
Arms-length exports
Branded exporter and
importer of standardized
goods and services
Brand and product development, market
research and access, import substitution
and export promotion
Modular
Buyer-supplier
complimentary
specialization in crossborder value chains
“Deverticalized” lead firms
and full package suppliers
with generic, base process
competencies, and a global
footprint
Knowledge of global standards, processand information technology upgrading
Relational
Collaboration with colocation or in cross-border
value chains with lots of air
travel
Clusters of specialists buyers
and suppliers with process
and/or domain-specific
competencies
Competence building, support of clusters
and districts, focus on building tacit
domain knowledge
Captive
Foreign direct investment,
equity ties
Dependent supplier,
customer-specific
competencies
Recruitment of MNC affiliates and
suppliers, local content rules
Hierarchy
Foreign direct investment
Lower tier supplier
Recruitment of MNC affiliates, education
and training, infrastructure development,
local content rules
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
Test
Dicing
4. Scenes
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
99
100
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
ITEC International Forum Report （Academic year 2006）
101
ITEC- 革新的研究の拠点
技術経営、経営とガバナンス、競争力、持続可能性とセキュリティ、企業教育
の分野で、質の高い革新的な研究を行い成果を発信していくことが ITEC の目
的です。
ITEC は「革新的企業研究」を行います。これは京都のハイテク企業をはじめ
とする革新的企業の研究と、特にグローバルな視点や比較研究の立場から企業
や企業環境の革新的研究と行うという両方を意味しています。これはまた内容
の点でも方法においても革新的であることを目指した「革新的企業教育」や情
報発信についてのプログラムにも関連しています。
ITEC は、オムロン株式会社からの基金提供を受けて 2003 年に正式発足し、
また同年には文部科学省から 21 世紀 COE プログラムのひとつに採択されま
した。
より詳しい情報は下記ホームページよりご覧いただけます。
http://www.itec.doshisha-u.jp/j/index.html
ITEC - a centre of Innovative research
ITEC conducts and disseminates high quality, innovative research in the areas of
technology management; innovation management and governance;
competitiveness, sustainability and security; and applied business education.
ITEC undertakes 'innovative business research', meaning both research on
innovative businesses, including high tech businesses based in and around
Kyoto, as well as innovative research on business and business environments,
typically from a global or comparative perspective. This is linked to a program
of dissemination and 'innovative business education', which aims to be
innovative both in terms of content and methods.
ITEC was officially launched in 2003, following a generous benefaction from
Omron Corporation. It was recognized by the Ministry of Education, Culture,
Sports, Science and Technology as a 21st Century Centre of Excellence in the
same year.
Published by
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and Competitiveness (ITEC)
Doshisha University
The Third Floor, Kambaikan, Karasuma Imadegawa, Kamigyo-ku, Kyoto 602-8580
同志社大学 技術・企業・国際競争力研究センター （ITEC）
For further information, please visit the ITEC website:
http://www.itec.doshisha-u.jp/index.html
〒602-8580 京都市上京区今出川通烏丸東入 寒梅館３階
URL: http://www.itec.doshisha-u.jp/
E-mail: [email protected]
Te l: 075-251-3779
Fax: 075-251-3139
February 2008
Doshisha University
ITEC International Forum Report (Academic year 2006)
The Third Floor, Kambaikan, Karasuma Imadegawa, Kamigyo-ku, Kyoto 602-8580
URL: http://www.itec.doshisha-u.jp/
E-mail: [email protected]
Doshisha University
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and Competitiveness (ITEC)
Doshisha University
ITEC International Forum Report
(Academic year 2006)
Institute for Technology, Enterprise and Competitiveness (ITEC)
Doshisha University

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