Will the economy turn upside
down in 2017?
…What to expect for the US, Oregon, and
Portland
SOREDI
January 2017
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Economy Rebounded
Late 2016/early2015 weakness appears to be
abating.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Economy Continues Upward Path
No recession in the near term. Manufacturing
activity still the odd indicator.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Dollar On The Rise, Again
Will take some steam out of exports.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Inventory Correction Easing
Firms look to have regained a hold on inventories.
Should boost growth.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Investment Stabilizing?
Capital goods orders find their bottom. Higher oil
prices should help.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Manufacturing On The Mend?
Survey says “yes”.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Service Sector Strong
Service sector soften in 2015/6 but is bouncing
back in recent months.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Consumer Plows Ahead
Some softening in the pace of gains, but consistent
with slower economic growth.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Housing Rebounding
Single family housing still has room to grow.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
A Threat To Housing?
Mortgage rates climb higher, may help curtail
home price appreciation.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Closing the Gap
The economy is nearly as estimates of potential
output…
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Full Employment?
With output near potential, labor market near full
employment.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Still, Some Room Remains
Still some residual underemployment in the labor
market, but getting better.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Job Growth Slowing
Job growth peaked in late 2014. Slowing as expected
as economy approaches full employment.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Labor Supply Jumps
Labor force growth picks up, but gains likely to be
short lived as demographics kick in again.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Expect Trade Deficit To Widen
With the US economy near full employment, the
trade deficit will be a pressure relief valve.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Gotta Pay More!
Wage growth fastest since 2009.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Gotta Pay More!
Wages surging for workers continuously employed
for 12 months.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Still Limited Inflation Pressures
Inflation running at 1.6% - below Fed’s target.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Oregon Keeps Truckin’ Along
Job growth strong, but softening somewhat like
national numbers.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Oregon Keeps Truckin’ Along
Still, Oregon continues to maintain its traditional
outperformance relative to US.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Underlying Indicators Solid
Nothing to see here. Move along, folks.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Welcome Rebounds
These two indicators were shaky. Until now.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Growth Expected To Continue…
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
….At An Above-Average Pace
First quarter 2014 was an aberration, underlying
growth remains slow and steady.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Could It All Fall Apart?
Estimate cost of a trade war.
Source: PIIE Briefing 16-6: Assessing
Trade Agendas in the US Presidential
Campaign
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Medford Looking Solid
Housing permits trending upward – but slowly.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Jobs Surpass Previous Peak!
Watch for revisions that might smooth noise.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/
Above Average Growth
Higher levels of permits would lift the measure.
Timothy A. Duy …. [email protected] …. econforum.uoregon.edu
@TimDuy …. economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/

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