CCWAsia2013

Water Resources and Adaptation to Climate
Change in North China Plain and Poyang
Lake Region in China:
Preliminary Findings and Research Plan
Jikun Huang, Jinxia Wang and Lingling Hou
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy
Chinese Academy of Sciences
19 June 2013
Presentation
• Project goals and objectives
• Research design and data
• Preliminary findings
– Adaptation measures and determinants
– Farmers’ perception on climate change and
determinants
• Research plan
Study Regions: North China Plain
(NCP) and Poyang Lake Region (PLR)
Long term change of temperature in the
NCP: 1960-2012
15.0
oC
14.5
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
12.89
12.86
12.88
13.51
13.82
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Long term change of temperature in the
PLR: 1960-2012
19.5
oC
19.0
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
17.57
17.32
17.30
17.40
18.23
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
16.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Long term change of precipitation in the
NCP: 1960-2012
mm
1,100
1,050
1960s
801.6
1970s
800.6
1970
1980
1980s
761.7
1990s
799.9
2000s
805.3
1,000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
1960
1990
2000
2010
Long term change of precipitation in the
PLR: 1960-2012
mm
1960s
1271
1,800
1970s
1364
1980s
1355
1990s
1503
2000s
1302
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Research goals
The overall goals of this study are to
improve adaptation strategies by
conducting economic analysis and
exploring appropriate technologies, policy,
and investment options (TPI) to address
immediate challenges and those posed by
longer term climate variability and change
in water and water related sectors in two
of the most vulnerable regions in China,
NCP and PLR.
Research objectives
Obj. 1: Documenting historical and future
change of climate, variability, their impacts on
water, and the likely adaptation measures in
NCP and PLR.
Obj. 2: Identifying appropriate adaptive
options and the constraints of their adoptions.
Obj. 3: Assessing cost and benefit of major
adaptation measures.
Obj. 4: Building capacity for researchers,
local policy makers and communities on water
and adaptation to climate change.
Presentation
• Project goals and objectives
• Research design and data
• Preliminary findings
– Adaptation measures and determinants
– Farmers’ perception on climate change and
determinants
• Research plan
Research design and data (1)
• Adaptation to long run climate change:
– Based on actual adaptation strategies of
community (e.g., village) and individuals (e.g.,
farmers) in the past -- township and village
surveys
– Based on individual perception of climate change
and their practices in water and water related
sectors (e.g., crop) -- household and individual
surveys
Research design and data (2)
• Impacts and adaptation to extreme events:
– Natural experiments:
• Each province: select counties that experienced
one relatively normal year and the other serious
natural disaster year in recent 3 years: identify the
impacts
• In each county: select 3 townships with different
water infrastructure (good, average and poor):
identify effects of different infrastructure
– Randomly select rural households
• 10 hh/village; large variations in resilience
NCP : 15 counties, 45 IDs, 45 townships, 135 villages and 1350 hh in 5 provinces
PLR : 10 counties, 10 IDs, 30 townships, 90 villages and 900 hh in one province
Training enumerators
Conducting field survey
Household Survey: General Information
• Household characteristics (e.g., demographic
data, human capital, employment, production
assest, wealth, water related service, etc)
• Decision making by man and women
• Past adjustments to climate shocks
• Perceived change of climate
• Opinions to adjust their perceived long term
climate change and variability
• …
Community Survey
• Basic socio-economic characteristics: topography,
soil types, transportation infrastructure
• Water conservancy infrastructure: irrigation and
drainage systems, drinking water facilities, and
water transportation
• Access to surface and groundwater resources, and
change of water supply availability
• Various damages from extreme weather events in
the past decade
• Adaptation measures adopted: technical, policy and
institutional arrangement, and investment project
• Costs and constraints to adopt various adaptation
measures
• …
Presentation
• Project goals and objectives
• Research design and data
• Preliminary findings
– Adaptation measures and determinants
– Farmers’ perception on climate change and
determinants
• Research plan
Occurrence of Drought in NCP
Percentage of plots (%)
98
100
80
77
80
74
57
60
50
47
46
40
40
37
33
26
20
0
Henan
Hebei
Shandong
normal year
Jiangsu
disaster year
Anhui
NCP
Yield Reduction due to Drought in NCP
Yield reduction (%)
12
11
9
8
7
6
7
6
7
6
5
5
5
3
3
2
0
Henan
Hebei
Shandong
normal year
Jiangsu
disaster year
Anhui
NCP
Practitioner
Category 1
Engineering
Household
Category 2
Main contents
Build
Well, Pump, Greenhouse, Water cellar and Pond
Repair
Well, Pump, Greenhouse, Water cellar and Pond
Water saving
technology
Border irrigation, Furrow irrigation, Level field, Surface pipe, Sprinkler, Drip,
Plastic film, Less tillage, Residual retention, Evaporation resisting agentia,
Intermittence irrigation, Drought-resistance variety
Non-engineering Field
management
Change: Variety, Sowing and harvest date, Reseeding, Fixing and cleaning,
Irrigation time and volume, Other inputs
Risk management Adjust planting structure, Agricultural insurance coverage
Build
Engineering
Repair
Rural
community
Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam, Pond, Well, Pump and
Underground pipe
Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam, Pond, Well, Pump and
Underground pipe
Risk management Disaster fighting activity, agricultural insurance
Non-engineering
Capacity
improvement
Disaster prevention training, Water user association, Other farmers
Association
Build
Reservoir, Irrigation-drainage system, Dam
Repair
Reservoir, Dam
Engineering
Government
Provide: Disaster warning service, Disaster response knowledge, Funding
Risk management support, Technical support, Launched emergency warning system, Emergency
response plan, rules and regulations for disaster, Change water price policy
Non-engineering
Capacity
improvement
Disaster prevention training
• Adoption of adaptation measures by farmers,
communities and government: cope with
drought in the North China Plain (NCP)
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Households:
Engineering and Non-engineering Measures
Share of households(%)
92
100
80
56
60
40
20
39
36
10
0
Investment
Maintenance
Engineering measures
Water saving
technologies
Farm
management
Non-engineering measures
Risk
management
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Households:
Farm Management Measures
Share of households(%)
23.5
25
20
16.9
15
10
5
3.5
1.6
0
Change
crop
varieties
Change
sow/
harvest
date
0.1
0.7
Reseed, Change
Change Change
clean/ irrigation irrigation
seed
fitplant intensity
date
input
1.0
Change
fertilizer
inputs
0.3
Change
pesticide
inputs
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Communities:
Engineering Measures
%
90
Investment
80
79
Maintenance
70
60
50
40
30
26
17
14
20
20
16
10
0
0
Drainage/
irrigation
station
0
Drainage/
irrigation
canal
4
Bank
6
4
0
4
0
Dam
Pond
Well
Pump
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Communities:
Capacity Building
Villages Established Water
User Association (%)
Villages Established Farmers’
Production Association (%)
6.7
28.1
93.3
Established
not
established
71.9
Established
Not
established
Adaptation Measures Adopted by Government:
Information Service and Policy Support
Percentage of village, %
100
80
60
40
29
28
25
18
10
20
0
Before
disaster
After
disaster
Early Warning Information
Financial
support
Technical
support
Material
support
Policy Support
• Why factors influencing farmers’
decision on adopting adaptation
measures?
Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation
Measures by Farmers: Logit Econometric model
Pr( Adoption  1)   0  1D   2 I   3G   4 F 
 5 H   6O   7 R  
 Disaster (D)
Type of year (1=normal year;0=disaster year)
 Early warning information service (I)
Providing information before
disaster(1=Yes;0=No);
Providing information during/after disaster
(1=Yes;0=No)
 Capacity building (G)
 Household
Characteristics (H)
Age
Education
Farming experience
Family size
Distance to agri. product shop
Distance to wholesale market
Number of relatives
Water use associations(1=yes;0=No)
Agricultural production association (1=yes;0=No)  Plot Characteristics
Whether the household joined in training(1=Yes;0=No) Soil type (loam, clay)
 Irrigation infrastructure (F)
Dyke, Dam (1=yes;0=No)
Irrigation and drainage stations (1=yea; 0=No)
Number of tubewells
Landform
Saline
Distance to home
 Province Dummy (R)
(O)
Adoption of nonAdoption of engineering engineering measures:
measure
farm management
Year type
If normal year (1=Yes; 0=No)
Early warning information service
Providing before disaster(1=yes;0=no)
Providing during/after disaster (1=yes;0=no)
Capacity building
Water User Association (1=yes;0=no)
Agricultural production association (1=yes;0=no)
Attending training (1=yes;0=no)
Infrastructure
Having Dyke (1=yes;0=no)
Having Dam(1=yes;0=no)
Number of irrigation and drainage irrigation stations
Number of tubewells
Econometric results
Household characteristic
on the determinants
Family size (persons)
Age (year)
of adoption of
Farming experience (year)
adaptation measures
Education (year)
Distance to agricultural product shop (km)
Distance to wholesale markets (km)
Number of relatives
Plot characteristic
Loam (1=loam;0=other)
Clay (1=clay;0=other)
Landform (1=Plain; 0=Mountain)
Saline (1=yes;0=no)
Distance to distance(km)
Province Dummy Variables
Pseudo R2
-0.0174
-0.571***
0.128**
0.197***
0.281***
0.138**
0.319***
0.0918
0.222***
0.117
-0.0925
0.128**
0.187**
0.278**
-0.217***
0.000249
-0.606***
0.454***
0.0810**
-0.000363
-0.0131
-0.00651
0.00337
-0.00823
0.00734***
-0.000288
0.00506
0.0300**
-0.00331
0.00689
0.00853
0.00638**
-0.00654
0.0207***
-0.223***
-0.176**
0.868***
-0.0817
0.163***
Not report
0.14
-0.00506
0.083
-0.633***
0.152*
0.0816*
Not report
0.12
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation
Measures: Year Type and Early Warning Information Service
Adoption of Adoption of nonengineering
engineering
measures: farm
measure
management
Year type
If normal year (1=yes; 0=no)
Early warning information service
Providing before disaster
(1=yes;0=no)
Providing during/after disaster
(1=yes;0=no)
-0.0047
-0.1768***
0.0425**
0.0922***
0.0685***
0.0439**
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation
Measures: Capacity Building and Irrigation Infrastructure Condition
Adoption of
engineering
measure
Adoption of nonengineering
measures: farm
management
Water user association (1=yes;0=no)
0.1110***
0.0377
Attending training (1=yes;0=no)
0.0762***
0.0407***
Having Dyke (1=yes;0=no)
0.0686**
-0.1594***
Having dam (1=yes;0=no)
0.0957**
0.1587***
-0.0716
0.0252**
Capacity building
Irrigation infrastructure condition
Number of irrigation and drainage stations
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Adoption of Adaptation
Measures: household and plot characteristics
Adoption of
engineering
measure
Adoption of nonengineering
measures: Farm
management
Family size(person)
-0.0044
0.0093***
Education (year)
-0.0021
0.0027**
0.0024***
-0.0007
0.0019
-0.0020***
Loam soil (1=loam;0=other)
-0.0687***
-0.0016
Clay soil (1=clay;0=other)
-0.0555**
0.0261
Landform(1=Plain; 0=Mountain)
0.2133***
-0.2292***
-0.0233
0.0493*
0.0575***
0.0254*
Household characteristic
Distance to wholesale markets (km)
Distance to agri. product shop (km)
Plot characteristics
Saline land (1=yes;0=no)
Distance to home (km)
Summary on the Adoption of Adaptation Measures
• In order to cope with drought, farmers, communities
and government have made some responses by various
engineering and non-engineering adaptation measures;
• The adoption of adaptation measures by farmers is
influenced by the adaptation measures adopted by
communities and government;
• Existing adaptation ability (e.g., irrigation infrastructure
condition) also influences farmers’ behavior;
• The adoption of adaptation measures by farmers is also
influenced by the characteristics of households and
community.
Farmers’ Perception on the Climate Change
• How much percentage of farmers’ perception
is right?
• What factors influence the correction of
farmers’ perception?
Farmers’ Perception on Last Ten Years’
Temperature and Precipitation
Temperature
Precipitation
Unknown
3%
Decreased
8%
Unchanged
17%
Unknown
5%
Unchanged
20%
Increased
28%
Increased
72%
Decreased
47%
How Much Percentage of Farmers’ perceptions
Is Correct?
Temperature
Precipitation
Correct
16%
Wrong
44%
Wrong
84%
Correct
56%
Determinants of the Correction of Farmers’
Perception: Logit Econometric model
Pr(Correct  1)   0  1P   2 S   3 H   4V   5 R  
 Policy (P)
Early warning system
Agricultural extension service
 Social Capital (S)
No. of relatives
 Village Characteristics (V)
Whether the village is linked or scattered
Landform of the village (plain=1; hill=0)
Soil type
Whether irrigated by surface water
Distance to the closest road
 Household
Characteristics (H)
Age
Gender
Education
Whether household head is a
village leader
Off-farm
Family size
Farm size
Total asset for production
Total asset for livelihood
 Province
Dummies(R)
Econometric
results on the
determinants of
correction of
farmers’
perception
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of
Farmers’ Perception: Policy Support and Social Capital
Temperature
Precipitation
Early warning system
(1=Yes;0=No)
0.042**
-0.012
Agricultural extension service
(1=Yes;0=No)
0.022**
-0.049**
0.021**
-0.001
Government Policy Support
Social Capital
No. of relatives
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of
Farmers’ Perception: Household Characteristics
Temperature
Precipitation
Age
-0.001**
-0.001
Education
0.040**
0.000
Off-farm (Percentage of off farm workers
within a household)
-0.0002
-0.001**
Farm size (mu)
0.0005***
0.005
Total asset for production (thousand
RMB)
Total asset for life (thousand RMB)
0.0004**
0.001**
-0.001***
-0.000
Household Characteristics
Marginal Probability of Determinants of Correction of Farmers’
Perception: Village Characteristics
Temperature Precipitation
Village Characteristics
Whether the village is linked or scattered
(linked=1; scattered=0)
0.020*
-0.040*
Landform of the village (plain=1; hill=0)
-0.057***
-0.043*
0.017
-0.042*
0.037***
-0.030
0.009
-0.082***
Clay soil (clay=1; others=0)
Loam soil (loam=1; others=0)
Whether irrigated by surface water
(yes=1; no=0)
Summary on Famers’ Perception on
Climate Change
• Only a few percentage of farmers’ perception on
temperature is correct and half of farmers’
perception on precipitation is correct;
• The correction of perception on temperature is
significantly influenced by information and
extension services provided by government,
farmers’ social capital and some characteristics of
households and communities;
• The correction of perception on precipitation is
mainly influenced by some characteristics of
households and communities.
Presentation
• Project goals and objectives
• Research design and data
• Preliminary findings
– Adaptation measures and determinants
– Farmers’ perception on climate change and
determinants
• Research plan
Research Plan
Obj. 1: Finish literature review on climate change
and water
Obj. 2: Continue to conduct empirical analysis on
the adoption of adaptation measures.
Obj. 3: Conduct relevant surveys and finish analysis
(both empirical analysis and modelling simulation)
• Welcome and thank you for your
comments!
• CCAP’s website: www.ccap.org.cn

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