Do Smart Cars Equal Safer Roads

Do Smart Cars
Equal Safer Roads?
www.iihs.org
Property Casualty Insurers Association of America
Capital Engagement Series
Washington D.C. ● July 29, 2014
David S. Zuby
EVP/Chief Research Officer, IIHS
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,
founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and educational
organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries, and
property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads.
The Highway Loss Data Institute,
founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through scientific
studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses
resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles
and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
IIHS/HLDI members write 85% of U.S. private passenger market.
www.hldi.org
www.iihs.org
Rationale for smart cars
People don’t always “just drive”
• 1979 – Indiana “Tri-Level Study” estimated “driver error” to be
proximate cause of 9 out of 10 crashes
– 15 percent of crashes associated with driver inattention
Changing audio tapes/CDs
Eating/drinking
Children, bugs, animals in vehicle
Reading, shaving, and applying makeup
• 2011 – NHTSA estimated that distraction was a factor in15
percent of police reported crashes
• 2012 – 3,328 were killed and 421,000 were injured in crashes
involving distracted driver in the U.S.
www.iihs.org
Driver assistance features
Radar, LIDAR, ultrasonic, infrared, cameras, GPS
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Annual relevance of driver assistance technology
By type of system
all
injury
fatal
forward collision
warning
1,165,000
66,000
879
lane departure warning
179,000
37,000
7,529
side view assist
395,000
20,000
393
adaptive headlights
142,000
29,000
2,484
total unique crashes
1,866,000
149,000
10,238
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Availability of driver assistance technology
Percent of vehicle series in 2014
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
FCW
FCW
w/autobrake
lane departure
warning
standard
lane departure
prevention
optional
blind spot
warning
adaptive
head lights
rear cameras
not available
www.iihs.org
• Front crash prevention systems
are working
• Adaptive headlights are working
• The benefits of these systems
are less clear –
– Lane departure warning
– Blind spot warning
– Rearview cameras
– Parking proximity sensors
www.iihs.org
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Effect of front crash prevention on property damage
liability claim frequency
By manufacturer
20%
10%
statistically significant
0%
-10%
warning only
warning with autobrake
-20%
Honda Accord
(includes LDW)
Mercedes
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Volvo
Volvo XC60
(includes LDW)
with City
Safety
www.hldi.org
www.iihs.org
Effect of front crash prevention on bodily injury
liability claim frequency
By manufacturer
40%
20%
statistically significant
0%
-20%
warning only
warning with autobrake
-40%
Honda Accord
(includes LDW)
Mercedes
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Volvo
Volvo XC60
(includes LDW)
with City
Safety
www.hldi.org
www.iihs.org
Rear cameras and other backing aids
• Enhance the drivers’
perception of areas not
otherwise visible
• Experiments indicate benefits
• The real-world efficacy is
unclear
• Cameras will be required on
new vehicles beginning 2016
– Phase-in complete in 2018
www.iihs.org
Visibility advantage provided by technology
Rear visibility in typical SUV: 2013 Chevrolet Equinox LTZ
mirrors:
right
rear
left
shoulder glance
technology:
sensors
camera
www.iihs.org
Cameras prevented crashes with stationary object
Percent of participants who hit the object,
by technology and object motion
100
stationary
moving
80
60
40
20
0
none
sensors
camera
camera + sensors
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Calendar year features reach 95% of registered
vehicle fleet with and without mandate
2050
without mandate
2040
2015 mandate
2030
2020
forward collision rear parking
warning
sensors
lane departure
warning
adaptive
headlights
blind spot
warning
rear
camera
www.iihs.org
Summary
• Automated driving will help prevent and mitigate crashes
– Actual effectiveness of partial automation has been documented
– Ideal automated systems cannot be distracted as drivers can be
• Wide spread automated driving will take time
– Current partial automated systems are evolving quickly, but
– Older vehicles are replaced by state-of-the-art vehicles slowly
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Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries,
and property damage on the highway