Savings Adequacy among Malaysians: Preliminary Findings

POPULATION AGEING:
WHAT REALLY MATTERS
HALIMAH AWANG
10 MAY 2016
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
• INTRODUCTION
• POPULATION AGEING: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
• POPULATION AGEING IN ASIAN COUNTRIES
• WHY POPULATION AGEING MATTERS
• AGEING & RETIREMENT IN MALAYSIA: A CASE STUDY
2
INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS POPULATION AGEING?
• Increase in median age of a population OR a change in the age
structure of a population, so that elderly persons are increasingly
represented within a country’s overall age structure.
• Population ageing is mainly the result of rising life expectancy
and declining fertility.
• Elderly person = age 60 and above? OR age 65 and above?
3
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• Demographic transition from high to low mortality and fertility has
resulted in the reduction of the proportionate share of population
aged below 15, and increase of the population aged 60 and over.
• In 2009, the global number of older people passed 700 million.
This is projected to be 2 billion by 2050.
• In the “more developed” regions over 20% of the population is
60+. By 2050, nearly 33% of the population is projected to be in
that age group.
• In the “less developed” regions, older people account for 8% of
the population; by 2050 they are expected to account for over
20%.
Author’s name | November 17, 2008
PROPORTIONS AGED 65+ AND UNDER FIVE: 1950-2050
5
OLDEST AND YOUNGEST COUNTRIES:
(MEDIAN AGE)
NATION
JAPAN
ITALY
GERMANY
WORLD
MALI
NIGERIA
UGANDA
2005
43
42
42
28
16
16
15
2050
55
51
49
38
25
21
23
USA
CHINA
36
33
41
45
INDIA
24
39
6
Percent 65 Years or Older for
World and Italy:
1950, 2000 and 2050
40
36
Percent 65 years or older
35
30
25
18
20
16
15
8
10
5
7
5
0
1950
2000
Year
2050
World
Italy
7
Percent 80 Years or Older for
World and Italy:
1950, 2000 and 2050
15
16.0
Percent 80 years or older
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
5
6.0
4
4.0
2.0
0.5 0.5
1
0.0
1950
2000
Year
2050
World
Italy
8
LONGER LIVES EVERYWHERE…
700
ASIA HAS THE LARGEST, FASTEST GROWING OLDER
POPULATION
600
500
1950
1990
2025
400
300
200
100
0
Oceania
Nth
america
Sth
america
Africa
Europe
Asia
POPULATION PYRAMID
• The age structural shift can also be observed
from the changes in the shape of the population
pyramid.
• Population pyramid for 6 countries – India,
Australia, Thailand, Nepal, Malaysia &
Indonesia.
• Changes in the shape – from triangular-shaped
to constrictive population pyramid (rapid
increase in the number and proportion of older
population).
11
TOTAL POPULATION IN DIFFERENT
COUNTRIES
INDIA
AUSTRALIA
12
TOTAL POPULATION IN DIFFERENT
COUNTRIES
THAILAND
NEPAL
13
TOTAL POPULATION IN DIFFERENT
COUNTRIES
MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
14
POPULATION PYRAMID MALAYSIA
1970-2030
WHY POPULATION AGEING
MATTERS?
• AGEING OF POPULATION = >
DECREASE IN MOBILITY, INJURY, DISABILITY, CHRONIC
DISEASES,… ;
RISE IN OLD AGE DEPENDENCY BURDEN ON THE STATE &
FAMILIES;
RISING PENSION;
INADEQUACY OF SOCIAL SECURITY SCHEMES
• LONGER LIFE SPANS – LONGER TIME SPENT IN RETIREMENT;
MORE HEALTHY YEARS OR ADDED YEARS OF ILLNESS AND
16
DEPENDENCY?
AGEING AND HEALTH INEQUALITIES
Social
exclusion
and
poverty
Erosion of
social support
systems
Traditional
family support
weakening
Chronic
disease
and
disability
Health
inequalities
Shortage and
maldistribution
of HWF
RISK OF POVERTY
• THE WEAKENING OF INFORMAL FAMILY-BASED OLD-AGE
SUPPORT MECHANISMS SUGGESTS A GREATER ROLE FOR
FORMAL PENSIONS BY THE GOVERNMENT IN PROVIDING
INCOMES AND REDUCES THE RISK OF POVERTY AMONG
THE ELDERLY;
• THE PROBLEM WOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED AMONG
THE ELDERLY WOMEN BECAUSE THEY LIVE LONGER AND
ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE LIVING ALONE.
18
AGEING & RETIREMENT IN
MALAYSIA
19
THE CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE IN
MALAYSIA, 1970-2050
YOUNG AND OLD DEPENDENCY
RATIO
AGEING INDEX
AGEING OF THE OLDER
POPULATION
(% 80+/60+)
POTENTIAL SUPPORT RATIO AND
PARENT SUPPORT RATIO 64
(NUMBER OF PERSONS AGED 15 TO 64 PER EVERY PERSON AGED 65 OR OLDER;
NUMBER OF PERSONS 85+ PER HUNDRED PERSONS 50-64)
PERCENTAGE AGE 60 AND OVER
BY ETHNICITY
AGEING INDEX BY YEAR BY
ETHNICITY
YOUNG AND OLD DEPENDENCY
RATIO BY ETHNIC GROUP
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Young
1970
Old
Young
Old
Young
1980
Bumiputera
Old
1991
Chinese
Indian
Young
2000
Malaysian
Old
Young
2010
Old
PERCENT SURVIVING TO AGE 65
LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 60, 2010
SINGULATE MEAN AGE AT
MARRIAGE
28
Women
27
26
25
Malay
24
Chinese
23
Indian
22
Malaysia
21
20
1970
1980
1991
2000
32
Men
30
28
Malay
Chinese
26
Indian
24
Malaysia
22
20
1970
1980
1991
2000
INCIDENCE OF POVERTY
60
50
58.6
49.3
40
Malaysia
Rural
30
24.6
Urban
21.1
Hard core
16.5
20
12.4
8.4
7.5
7.1
10
3.9
0
3.4 1.4
3.8
1.7
0
1970
1990
1999
2009
0.7
CURRENT RESEARCH :
UNDERSTANDING AGEING &
RETIREMENT IN MALAYSIA
33
PRELIMINARY
RESPONDENTS
–
ANALYSIS
Frequency
Percentage
Gender
Male
Female
194
256
43.10%
56.90%
Age
40-49
50-59
60-69
70+
214
161
50
25
47.60%
35.80%
11.10%
5.60%
Ethnicity
Malay
Chinese
India
Others
295
91
23
41
65.60%
20.20%
5.10%
9.10%
Place of residence
Urban
Rural
307
143
68.20%
31.80%
450
IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT WOULD BE THE NUMBER OF
YEARS MOST PEOPLE IN MALAYSIA WOULD LIKE TO LIVE?
Mean age : 81.86
32.4%
14.4%
12.9%
12.7%
12.7%
9.1%
2.6%
3.1%
BELOW 70 70-74 YEARS 75-79 YEARS 80-84 YEARS 85-89 YEARS 90-94 YEARS 95-99 YEARS 100 YEARS
YEARS OLD
OLD
OLD
OLD
OLD
OLD
OLD
OLD AND
ABOVE
FOR A WOMAN/MAN AGED 60 YEARS LIVING IN MALAYSIA,
HOW MANY MORE YEARS DO YOU THINK SHE/HE CAN
EXPECT TO LIVE?
23.1%
Mean
Man : 16.75
21.6%
18.7%
22.9%
19.6%
15.1%
7.8%
4.2%
5.6%
21.8%
13.1%
10.7%9.8%
6.2%
Below 5 years 5-9 years
10-14 years 15-19 years 20-24 years
Male
>25 years
Others
IDEALLY I WOULD LIKE TO LIVE
AT LEAST 80 YEARS
74.7% 72.7%
10.8%
16.8%
Disagree
14.4%
Agree
Male
Female
10.5%
Don't know
WHAT WOULD YOU DO TO ENSURE
A COMFORTABLE RETIREMENT?
55.6%
53.1%
40.9%
24.0%
4.4%
6.2%
8.9%
Work longer Increase my
Plan to
Move to
Move in with Turn to family
Turn to
savings by
reduce my
another
a family
members for government
cutting
cost of living location with
member
financial
for old age
expenses in retirement a lower cost
support
support
of living
2.9%
Others
MOST SCARY
DISABLING DISEASE IN
LATER LIFE
GREATEST FEAR
REGARDING HAVING A
LONG TERM ILLNESS
65.3%
36.4%
23.1%
19.6%
3.3%
10.2% 7.3%
6.4%
Being a Ending up
burden on
in a
my family nursing
home
9.6%
13.6%
5.1%
Dying
Using up
my
savings
Others
LEVEL OF AGREEMENT ACROSS
THE FOLLOWING DIMENSIONS OF
AGEING AND RETIREMENT
Statement
Percentage of
agreement
I am leading a meaningful purpose in life
88.2%
I have a loving family
88.9%
I continue to have caring friends
82.7%
I am financially independent
77.6%
I can still contribute to society
85.6%
I believe I will not need long term care at age 65 and beyond
50.7%
There should not be any compulsory retirement.
I will continue working as long as my mental and physical capability
permit
I may consider living in an assisted living facility (e.g. Retirement
village).
48.7%
71.8%
61.1%
CONCLUSION
• POPULATION AGEING IS THE INEVITABLE CONSEQUENCE
OF DECLINING FERTILITY AND MORTALITY AND LONG LIFE;
• POPULATION AGEING IS AN ACHIEVEMENT OF HUMANITY;
• POPULATION AGEING HAS ENORMOUS IMPACT ON
INDIVIDUALS, SOCIETIES & GOVERNMENT.
WHAT REALLY MATTERS:
• EMBRACE HEALTHY, ACTIVE & PRODUCTIVE AGEING
41
THANK YOU
42

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