Enough | 1 A report on how weвЂ™ll feed the world Enough The fight for a food-secure tomorrow 2 | Enough An open letter to those concerned about hunger. Thank you for your interest in solving the worldвЂ™s hunger problem. The Enough Movement is a new and innovative initiative towards ensuring people around the world have adequate nutrition, today and in the coming decades. This report reflects a collective work of many, not just my ideas. While it is very personal to me, it also represents the perspectives of 4,000 employees of the company IвЂ™m part of, as well as thousands of farmers, food chain leaders and consumers that are already actively engaged in the fight for a food secure tomorrow. This report provides a different perspective on hunger and food security. In the past, we focused on the extreme; on the disease of hunger and on the 870 million people chronically malnourished. But now we must broaden our thinking to food security, ensuring people not only have enough to eat, but that they have access to the right calories, regardless of country or status in life. By increasing the spectrum beyond hunger, it allows people to connect more deeply to the size and scope of the issue. This report is more than just another presentation of the challenge. Instead, we use a number of new studies to highlight viable solutions. Shifting Paradigms Hunger Food security crisis solutions Readable Usable listening taking action discussion movement ItвЂ™s important to note that this is a report, not a white paper. Instead of a dense, academic read, weвЂ™ve worked to present information in two-paged sections with informative graphics that can be more easily scanned, understood and shared in todayвЂ™s society. The world has changed how people accept information, so weвЂ™ve changed how we packaged this. Finally, this report lays the foundation of The Enough Movement. I hope youвЂ™ll stand up and make food security your cause. In the first year, we aspire to enlist thousands of individuals to join this movement вЂ“ will you be among them? Join us at sensibletable.com. Join the movement. Together we can make a difference. Sincerely Jeff Simmons Elanco sensibletable.com New Research Featured in This Report This report contains more research than any past papers. вЂў 2013 Global Food forward Analysis Roger Cady and Eric Heskett, Elanco. Fox Hollow Consulting. Review by Global AgriTrends, Informa Economics, the International Egg Commission вЂў International Consumer Attitudes Study: 2nd edition Spring 2013 Gary Szeszycki, Elanco; The Nielson Company вЂў Food Chain Decisions in a Social World: New Ways to Measure What the Consumer Wants Elanco вЂў Consumer Purchase Behaviors The Nielson Company вЂў 2013 Hunger Solutions Survey The Center for Food Integrity вЂў Achieving Global Food Security: How the Nutritional Impact of Animal Source Foods Enriches Lives Bill Weldon, Elanco; Susan Finn, RD; CEO, American Council of Fitness and Nutrition Enough | 3 вЂ“ A movement ItвЂ™s time we solvedВ the greatest issue of our time вЂ“ food security. The world is growing. We have the solutions. We must act together. We must act now. Quickly. And weвЂ™re not just talking about adding more people, but more people with better lives. Estimates show the global middle class growing another 3 billion by 2050. All with better lives. This is one of the most positive stories in the next decade! But, experts say weвЂ™re headed towards a crisis where there wonвЂ™t be enough to feed all these people. They believe we simply donвЂ™t have enough resources to grow enough crops or to produce enough livestock to provide quality diets to the middle class. We disagree! There are enough innovative solutions to deliver enough food. Do we have enough courage, enough leadership and enough urgency to make it happen? WeвЂ™ve read enough, weвЂ™ve talked about our disagreements enoughвЂ¦ Different than most problems, there are solutions. There can be enough. We believe we have a role to play in rewriting this story. We can reverse these trends. But now is the time to act. I predict by 2020 we will know if we can deliver enough. With the right dialogue, the right science-based policies, and the right innovative solutions, we can ensure we will have enoughвЂ¦ without using too much of our resources. By 2020, we can ensure a positive ending to this story. It will take solutions like innovation, choice and trade. Our vision is a food secure world вЂ“ a world where 9 billion people have access to enough nutritious, affordable food. There are fewer deaths from hunger. Less disease. Less obesity. More human potential realized. Countries are stronger. The world is more peaceful. We stop overusing our resources. Children grow up healthy, active, smart and strong. WeвЂ™ve had enough. We have just enough time. To act. To change. ItвЂ™s time we #feedthe9. Please join us at sensibletable.com and engage in the conversation. вњ“ Join the movement! Together weвЂ™ll rewrite the story. Yes, IвЂ™m in! Signature 4 | Enough 3 Food Security Realities GROWING MIDDLE CLASS 3 BILLION join the middle class 4.8B 1.8B Today: 7B Fastest growth to occur between now and 2020 INCREASING DEMAND FOR MEAT, MILK & EGGS We will need 60% 2050: 9B Source: FAO, OECD1, 2 FEEDING MORE WITH LESS By overusing our resources, it takes more animalsourced foods 1.5 years for the earth to regenerate annual consumption Source: 4 Source: FAO3 An Urgent Window of Time Food Security is Solvable Population growth will plateau between 9вЂ“10 billion people.1 Unlike many of our worldвЂ™s challenges вЂ“ AlzheimerвЂ™s disease, auto-immune diseases like lupus, and energy issues вЂ“ there are clear solutions for a food secure world. There is a window of opportunity to meet the challenge. We have enough time вЂ“ just enough вЂ“ if we act now. The next few years will determine if we have enough to meet demand, or if we deter middle class growth and disrupt global and environmental stability for decades to come. Enough | 5 Food Security вЂ“ Solving the Greatest Issue of Our Time We have enough solutions to create a food secure world. Do we have enough courage, leadership and urgency to deliver? Explosive Growth A food secure world is one in which everyone can afford and access an adequate quantity and quality of food. On Oct. 31, 2011, the worldвЂ™s population shot past the 7-billion mark on its way to reaching 9 billion or more by the year 2050.5 time in history.2 While вЂњmiddle classвЂќ means different things in different places, to put it simply, billions of people will live a better life. And thatвЂ™s all starting now. Regardless of the specific income figure, one thing is consistent: as income grows, one of the first things most people do with more income is improve their diets by eating more meat, milk and eggs.1 In fact, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts a 60% increase We will live our lives between the 7 and the 9. But the in demand for meat, milk and eggs by 2050.3 Increasing steepest part of the growth curve is happening between now demand will also mean increasing prices. FAO and the and 2020. Beyond Organisation for Economic 2030, growth rates Co-operation and Development taper.2 Population (OECD) expect in the next growth is not infinite. decade beef, pork and lamb (annual income) In fact, population prices to climb 11%, 17% and is already declining 4%, respectively.7 in countries like $20,600 вЂ“ Japan, Germany and Russia. Populations $102,0008 in Europe and China will begin declining $3,650 вЂ“ within the next According to the World $18,2509 decade.6 Thus, with Wildlife Fund, the Earth takes the right solutions, 1.5 years to regenerate the food security is Global average: $730 вЂ“ renewable resources we use solvable for the long 2 in a single year.4 On Aug. 20, $3,650 term. 2013, we crossed the line where annual resource consumption exceeded the planetвЂ™s ability to replenish. In eight months we exhausted the natural resources that should last all year вЂ“ and every year that date is moving up by a few days. On this course, by 2030 weвЂ™ll Beyond population growth, 3 billion people will enter the require double the planetвЂ™s resources to meet our needs.1 We middle class during these years.2 In fact, more people will join have to produce more, and do it with less. the middle class between now and 2020 than at any other The End in Sight вЂњMiddle ClassвЂќ Around the World Decreasing Resource Use Demanding Better Food Food Security: When food is a non-issue. 6 | Enough Food Security Makes Headlines Around the World The significant volume of media coverage suggests we have reached a tipping point. Food security is an issue now. Undernutrition. The obesity epidemic in the U.S. highlights the challenge of вЂњfood desertsвЂќ in many major cities as well as rural areas. In a food desert, wholesome, nutritious food isnвЂ™t available as readily as cheap, unhealthy calories.10 Making better calories more affordable is essential to shifting the obesity trend. Changing Practices. Fewer farmers are switching to organic production, with some even reverting to more innovative production.11 вЂњYou have seen a slowdown in the transition of acres,вЂќ said George Siemon, chief executive of Organic Valley, the largest U.S. organic cooperative. Power of Protein. The school lunch program guidelines limiting protein in meals at U.S. schools were reversed in December 2013 after participation dropped because kids werenвЂ™t getting enough protein to fuel their bodies.12 Production Disruptions. Skyrocketing Prices. Egg prices in the EU skyrocketed in January 2012, when a ban on conventional chicken cages pushed many egg producers out of business вЂ“ egg prices in the U.K. quadrupled almost overnight.13, 14 Food Shortages. In 2013, Dutch consumers protested a baby formula shortage sparked by local hoarding and illegal trade to meet exploding Chinese demand.15 Civil Unrest. Riots broke out in 30 countries to protest high food prices in 2008, and again in 2011.16 Avian influenza swept MexicoвЂ™s egg industry in 2012, wiping out 1 in 6 birds, doubling egg prices and sparking a national crisis.23 Continued Deforestation. While slowing, deforestation to meet food needs is a significant concern for long-term climate change impact on food production.22 Toppling Governments. The lack of affordable bread in Egypt has driven enough discontent to topple multiple regimes in the country.21 Food Crisis Looms. According to the World Food Programme, 1 in 4 people living in rural areas in Zimbabwe are expected to need food assistance in early 2014, the highest since 2009.20 Food Security = Global Stability. High food prices are an ongoing threat to civil order, warn analysts at the New England Complex Systems Institute, who studied the link between food riots and the Arab Spring.19 As demand climbs, so will prices and volatility. Reverse Trade. Instead of simply exporting food from an area of production to an area of need, growing global economies in Asia and Latin America are buying in to markets to protect their long-term food security, from land purchases in Africa to the purchase of the largest U.S. pork producer by a Chinese company.17, 18 Enough | 7 The Protein Gap вЂњ[Food insecurity] is the principal threat to global security. Failure to address food security will result in increasing tension.вЂќ вЂ“ Dr. Alastair Summerlee, President, University of Guelph But thatвЂ™s decades away, right? Wrong! Take milk for example. Even while dairy productivity has doubled in the past 50 years, itвЂ™s not keeping pace with population growth. Globally, thereвЂ™s 14 % less milk per person than in 1961.24 The Dairy Gap On average around the world today, we have access to about one 8-oz. glass of milk (or equivalent serving of yogurt or cheese) a day.24 The global recommended intake is two glasses a day.25 Current per capita milk production around the world isnвЂ™t meeting basic nutritional needs. We assembled a team of researchers to study this issue. Informa Economics and Global AgriTrends validated the model. The findings of the 2013 Global Food forward Analysis estimate that based on our current productivity path, we wonвЂ™t even have access to a glass of milk a day on average by 2020.* The Dairy Gap What We Have What We Need The Body and Brain Gap If we look at securing everyone with the two glasses a day our bodies really need for growth and cognitive development, the gap grows to more than 4.5 billion peopleвЂЎ not able to meet their daily requirement for milk вЂ“ 5 trillion servings short! В§, 26 Not only will we have a Dairy Gap, weвЂ™ll have a Body and Brain Gap. A landmark observational study in Kenya demonstrates that when childrenвЂ™s diets are supplemented with meat or milk, learning and resulting test scores improve, particularly compared to those just given increased energy from oils and the control group given a typical meal.27 Improving Test Scores With Meat and Milk (Over 5 School Terms) Increase in End of Term Test Scores When agriculture productivity lags, food gaps вЂ“ the shortfall between supply and demand вЂ“ appear. We believe meat, milk and eggs will become more expensive and less accessible. Consumers in Asia, Africa and Latin America will lack choices and have diminished ability to nourish their families with high quality animal protein. Consumers in the United States and Europe will find more limited options at higher prices. 50 40 +45% 30 +28% 20 10 0 -7% -10% -10 Meat 1 glassвЂ /day on average (dairy equivalency) Global RDI = 2 glassesвЂ /day on average (dairy equivalency) Based on our current production trends, nearly half the globeвЂ“ 4.5 BILLION PEOPLE вЂ“ Milk Energy Control Further, a recent paper, ACHIEving Global Food Security: How the Nutritional Impact of Animal Source Foods Enriches Lives by ElancoвЂ™s Bill Weldon, VP of Research and Development, and Susan Finn, RD and president of the American Council on Fitness and Nutrition, shows that when nutrition improves, health improves, learning improves and ultimately incomes and societies improve.28 wonвЂ™t meet their nutritional needs by 2040.вЂЎ *Projection based on FAO demand estimates вЂ 1 glass = 8 fluid ounces =237 millileters вЂЎ Projection based on meeting RDI for global population В§ 1 serving = 150g or 5.2 oz 8 | Enough er More nut rit iou sc s trie n u co s ice ho Str on g Our Vision for a Food Secure World ACCESS STABILITY Milk, meat & eggs for all Plentiful food limits unrest Reduce tyles INNOVATION AFFORDABLE RESOURCES ve d otp Better food, better prices Feeding more with less t Im ri n p ro d fo lif e s CHOICE TRADE HEALTH Less disease, hunger & obesity G re ater h u m an poten tial We see a world where 9 billion people have access to enough nutritious, affordable food. There are fewer deaths from hunger. Less disease. Less obesity. More human potential realized. Countries are stronger. The world is more peaceful. We stop overusing our resources. Children grow up healthy, active, smart and strong. Where there is no vision, people perish. Enough | 9 A Food Secure World Movements begin with bold visions. When a vision becomes personal, courage, leadership and activism follow. HereвЂ™s our vision of a food secure world and why it matters. Access Stability Our vision starts with a world where no one worries about food. No one lacks. Meat, milk and eggs are available to anyone who wants them. A parent never has to make a decision about which child to feed, or has to look down at a helpless, hungry face at bedtime. And ultimately, we have a more stable, peaceful world. Political regimes no longer topple because of lack of food. There are less politics over big farms vs. small farms, one practice vs. another. Instead there are more fact-based decisions that deliver more affordable, safe and sustainable food. Affordability A mother never has to opt for soda because itвЂ™s cheaper and more easily accessible than wholesome milk or a cup of yogurt. As the middle class emerges, better food options become more affordable, not less. We also canвЂ™t make decisions that increase production cost because of luxury choice for the few. Health We see a world where diets are better. People have access to not just the right quantity of calories, but the right quality of calories and nutrients like protein. Diets and food preferences become better for the next generation. Health is better tomorrow than today as a result of improved diets not just due to healthcare interventions. There are fewer deaths from hunger. Less disease. Less obesity. Greater human potential. Countries are stronger. The health care crisis is more likely to be solved by better nutrition for the emerging middle class than political interventions and subsidies. Resources We turn back the clock on resource use. We produce more with less and preserve resources for future generations. Yet, we have greater variety and choice. More consumers, politicians and food companies are aware of the need for efficiency in food production and make choices accordingly. вЂ�вЂ� I see a food secure future, and IвЂ™m truly confident itвЂ™s possible. The population will plateau after 2050. This is not an infinite challenge, and solving it will provide a foundation for a sustainable future. Time and again the human spirit has risen to meet the challenge. I see it in the people around the world with whom I work every day. If we have the courage to stand up, to speak out and to employ the right solutions, this vision can become our reality. IвЂ™ve had enough of the misinformed, isolated decision making and political correctness. Nothing is more important personally, morally, environmentally, nationally and globally than food security. вЂ“ Jeff Simmons, Elanco вЂ�вЂ� 10 | Enough The Faces of Food Security вЂ“ A Spectrum From Disease to Development to Decisions on the Right Food Choices. The Collapse The Deficiency The Hunt вЂўExtreme malnutrition and death from hunger вЂўFood intake consists only of a few staples вЂў25,000 die each day due to malnutritionally weakened immune systems that canвЂ™t fight disease42 вЂўLack of animal protein in the diet affects cognitive, behavioral and muscle development in children27 вЂњHow do I choose which child to feed?вЂќ вЂњWith food like this, my family canвЂ™t thrive.вЂќ вЂўStarving and gorging вЂўDaily search for food dominates the lives of millions вЂњWhere and when will I get my next meal?вЂќ Enough | 11 Food security is misunderstood. While itвЂ™s often associated with extreme hunger, itвЂ™s much more. ThereвЂ™s likely not a day that goes by when you donвЂ™t come into contact with at least one of the 6 Faces of Food Security. The problem isnвЂ™t isolated to remote areas of Africa or Asia. Lack of food security happens in urban cities and farming communities, developed countries and undeveloped nations. People who face the daily issue of access to enough food, and enough of the right foods. While the spectrum of food security may start with the Disease of Hunger, it includes Development of bodies, brains and countries, and ultimately becomes about the daily food Decisions вЂ“ trade-off decisions about whether to buy a carton of milk or a bottle of soda or ultimately the luxury of deciding among an array of available options. Those who hold the keys to the solution, those in developed nations who donвЂ™t have the daily challenge of food, are often disconnected from the size and spectrum of the issue вЂ“ even becoming numb to the issue. The Quality The Edge The Tradition вЂўFood deserts in urban and rural areas mean lack of access to the right foods, a key factor in obesity вЂўA few unexpected life events from a short-term crisis, job loss or health emergency that creates financial and thus nutritional collapse вЂўSustaining access to foods on which traditions are built вЂўLifestyle habits lead to poor health issues вЂњI wish we had a good grocery store.вЂќ вЂўEnabling more food choices вЂўRelief groups вЂ“ food pantries, soup kitchens, shelters вЂ“ serve the newly poor вЂњWhat happened?вЂќ вЂњItвЂ™s part of who we are.вЂќ 12 | Enough INNOVATION CHOICE TRADE 3 Top Solutions to a Food- Secure Tomorrow There are many pathways that can have an impact on achieving a food secure world; however, research, experts, history and practical global execution point to three solutions that stand out as the most significant, can have the most impact and can be acted upon the quickest. 1. Innovation. The products, practices and genetics that help farmers produce more food more sustainably вЂ“ innovations that, in many cases, are already available, safe, regulated and proven. Experts from scientists to economists say itвЂ™s the biggest part of the solution вЂ“ 70%.1 We must enable innovation more than any other time in our history. 2. Choice. Farmers need to be able to choose the right practices for their operations. Consumers need to be able to choose food that fits their price, taste and nutritional needs. And we need regulators and policy makers to make science-based policy choices. Choice must not be taken away without a fact-based, legitimate reason from science-based regulators. Solution #1: Innovation Innovation is at the center of the most challenging issues of our time. While there is resistance to innovation in food, we need to better understand the realities. Examples, like the milk story below, are often the best way to bring these to life. With a predicted milk shortage, the Food Forward researchers evaluated opportunities to fill the gap. On our current path вЂ“ the same productivity and cow herd growth rates вЂ“ we would have almost 40 million more dairy cows in 2050. ThatвЂ™s significantly more feed and water. But that still wouldnвЂ™t fill the gap. And given weвЂ™re already exceeding our planetвЂ™s resources, adding more cows simply isnвЂ™t sustainable. Today, globally one cow produces an average of 2 gallons each day. In leading areas, itвЂ™s more than 7 gallons a day. Organic milk production yields on average at least 20% less than local conventional production. Researchers predict we can fill the gap and freeze the footprint of milk production if every year, every cow increases her daily production just 4.75 oz. Many countries around the globe are already increasing at rates 3-4 times this through their use of innovation.26 A Modest 4.75 oz. Daily Production Increase Each Year Fills the Gap 22.9 (677.2 ml) 25 14.8 Belarus Ecuador Portugal Ukraine (437.7 ml) Germany Japan Spain UK US 20 Increased Milk Yield (п¬‚ oz/day/yr) Given the urgency, prioritizing our solutions has never been more critical. CHOICE TRADE The Power of Innovation: A Glass Half Full 3. Trade. The mechanism that allows us to produce food where itвЂ™s more economical and sustainable and deliver it to people who need it. Pure economics and the environment prove that food must move from the most to the least productive areas for a food secure tomorrow. Politics need to be reduced while trade needs to increase in parallel with local advances in food production. INNOVATION 15 10 4.75 (140.5 ml) 5 0 Filling the Gap Top-Producing Countries Top-Improving Countries Enough | 13 вЂњSustainable global food security is attainable if we have open minds on technology and focus on high productivity and efficiency. We cannot feed tomorrowвЂ™s world with yesterdayвЂ™s technology.вЂќ вЂ“ Aalt Dijkhuizen, Wageningen University & Research Centre, The Netherlands More Innovation, Not More Animals 1 Cow 32 Glasses of Milk currently produced each day Enough Milk Half a glass more26 1 to meet future demand 2 Simply by using practices available today or already in the pipeline, cows around the world can increase their output by a mere half glass per cow вЂ“ enough to satisfy future global demand. Examples of such practices include: вЂў Fresh, clean water вЂў Feed optimization вЂў Vaccines вЂў Disease control вЂў Improved housing & comfort вЂў 3x a day milking вЂў Long-day lighting Applying TodayвЂ™s Technology to Add Half a Glass More, Dairy Producers Could Annually Save: 25% 66 Million Cows* 747 Million Tons of farmland вЂ“ the size of Alaska26 24% 25% 618 Billion Gallons of feed and 388 Million Acres 25% 25%25% 25% of water вЂ” the annual domestic use 24% of Germany, France and the UK combined26 *Cows and buffalo Many farmers canвЂ™t take advantage of current innovations, practices or products. Solutions exist; access doesnвЂ™t. 24% 14 | Enough Accepting Innovation The Egg Production Reality26 The 2013 Food Forward analysis also examined the global egg industry, finding a startling example of what happens when innovation is prohibited. More than a decade of disease, social pressures and increasing regulations on safe, proven practices have dropped global hen productivity nearly an egg/hen/year after decades of increases. Throughout history, the worldвЂ™s biggest problems have been solved through innovation. ItвЂ™s celebrated in virtually every sector of the economy. So why is innovation questioned when itвЂ™s linked to food? In the past 60 years, a wide range of innovations in agriculture have allowed farmers to produce more while better caring for the animals and decreasing environmental impact. In fact, in the United States, agriculture outputs have grown 250% on the same level of inputs.29 On the current path, weвЂ™ll need 12.6 billion birds вЂ“ nearly double todayвЂ™s 6.4 billion вЂ“ plus the massive resources to support them to meet demand in 2050. Then Today 6.5 billion hens produce 184 eggs each annually For decades, production increased 7 U.S. cows yield the beef of 10 cows in 197730 1Вѕ eggs/year U.S. cows yield 4 times the milk of cows in the mid 1940s31 Since the late 1990s the productivity trend has reversed due to disease, changing practices, removing innovation. .8 eggs/year The Production Opportunity Today, weвЂ™re meeting demand by adding hens. On this path, hens will need to double to meet 2050 demand. 1992 Instead we can bring back innovation and help hens produce more. Today 2050 Just ONE more egg per hen per year helps meet demand and requires 4 billion fewer hens Using innovation, not adding hens, would save: 26% 113 million tons of feed 26% 65 million acres of land 31% 74 billion gallons of water Source: Dr. Roger Cady. Elanco Animal Health. 2013 Food Forward Analysis. Validated by International Egg Commission. U.S. farmers produce the same amount of pork with 38% fewer pigs than farmers in 195932 Meanwhile, organics and вЂњluxury foodвЂќ produced without innovation have almost become a status symbol for those who can afford it. Increasingly, research points to a lack of any significant scientific evidence suggesting improved nutrition, safety or resource use from organic foods. A recent study by Stanford UniversityвЂ™s Center for Health Policy evaluated 237 reports and found little difference in health benefits between organic and conventional foods.33 Further, in a meta-analysis of 66 studies, researchers from McGill University in Canada and the University of Minnesota found that organic methods produce 25% less food than conventional farming on the same land area.34 Innovations that have improved food production вЂў Animal health and sanitation вЂў Disease detection вЂў Animal nutrition вЂў Animal comfort вЂў Artificial insemination and genetic improvements вЂў Vaccines вЂў Parasite control вЂў Animal housing вЂў Productivity optimizations We support the personal choice of organic foods, but one personвЂ™s choice shouldnвЂ™t be imposed on others. Further, consumers need to consciously understand these choices. Ultimately, science simply doesnвЂ™t support most claims being made today about organic food production. ItвЂ™s time we begin to consider the full consequences of these choices. Enough | 15 G LO B A SOLUT Learning from Global Experts by Charlie Arnot, CEO, The Center for Food Integrity In an effort to foster more productive dialogue, The Center for Food Integrity conducted the Global Hunger Solutions Survey of leading global experts on food security to get their take on workable solutions.35 We asked 16 experts with extensive experience and a global perspective. These individuals have dedicated their distinguished academic, journalistic and professional careers to addressing these pressing issues. The experts said public policy, technology and education of smallholder farmers leads to individual self-sufficiency critical to solving the food security crisis. And finding a solution is about more than feeding hungry mouths, itвЂ™s about building geopolitical stability. As Roger Thurow, author, journalist and senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs said, вЂњHunger is both the cause and effect of conflict.вЂќ We are conflicted as a society in our support of innovation and technology that allows farmers to grow more food using fewer resources. All consumers have a right to expect safe food produced responsibly. But we need to tread carefully in defining responsible production. A cultural bias that drives scientifically supported innovation from the market could have devastating consequences in the developing world, or even on lower income families in industrialized nations. We should neither embrace nor reject technology and innovation out of hand, but invest the time and energy to better understand the impact of either using or eliminating technology on people, animals and the planet. The consequences of a rush to judgment are too great. Long-term solutions will require governments to encourage the support of smallholder farmers, bringing them up to date on modern farming methods, while championing the adoption of responsible agricultural technologies. Achieving that level of support will require unprecedented public engagement. Each of us can plant a seed by encouraging that engagement and supporting thoughtful analysis and policy that will bring an end to food insecurity. В® L HUN I O N S G2E R 013 ExpertsвЂ™ Solutions 5вЂ” 4вЂ” Critically Important 4.4 Policy that supports improved agriculture practices in the developing world 4.2 Adoption of technology 4.2 Policy that encourages the adoption of technology 4.1 Smallholder farmer education on better practices 3.4 Reducing food waste 3вЂ” 2вЂ” 1.7 Organic production 1вЂ” Not at All Important 16 | Enough CHOICE TRADE While the experts tell us innovation is the answer, consumers tell us they donвЂ™t want innovation. Right? Wrong! Consumer perceptions of innovative solutions in food production may be the biggest misunderstanding in the food chain today. We must always seek to understand what consumers want in their food and serve these needs. But equally, we must be careful to not react to a fringe minority voice that does not represent the consumer, but a socially charged agenda. Food Chain Decisions in a Social World: Understanding the Connected Consumer offers new thoughts on the best ways to gauge consumer attitudes and the right measures to evaluate. #1. Headlines to Mentions Historically, the food industry has looked to headlines to make technology decisions. A flurry of news articles would likely result in thorough scrutiny of the supply chain. While headlines can be concerning , whatвЂ™s more important are consumersвЂ™ reaction. Are they creating a dialogue in social media? Is there concern? The online conversation вЂ“ todayвЂ™s вЂњwater cooler,вЂќ so to speak вЂ“ gives us important insight to really gauge consumer opinion, whatвЂ™s top of mind, how it compares to other topics and how it changes over time. We can watch this reaction play out in real-time. What Do Consumers The 3 Essential Measures Really Want? of TodayвЂ™s Consumers Then Headlines Now Media mentions ? Aided questions Call inquiries Unaided questions Consumer spending Monitoring the right metrics helps determine when there is a real concern. For example, in 2013 GMOs generated about 70,000 mentions globally in traditional and social media.36 In contrast, social media conversation around the U.S. government shutdown generated 2 million mentions in the first week. Fewer than 5,000 mentions a day for 3 days or more suggests limited consumer engagement and interest. The next time you hear, вЂњBut consumers donвЂ™t want itвЂќ вЂ“ I encourage you to look deeper to the online dialogue known as media mentions. Comparing Social Media Mentions 36 Mentions Solution #2: Ensuring Consumer Choice INNOVATION 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Social media lessons learned вЂў Constantly monitor the conversation вЂў Create food chain awareness of the conversation вЂў Anything less than 5,000 mentions/day for 3 days doesnвЂ™t constitute an issue that warrants attention #2. Aided vs. Unaided Questions How you ask the question matters: вЂњWhatвЂ™s important to you when you purchase beef?вЂќ vs. вЂњAre you concerned about factory farms growing your food?вЂќ Unaided questions donвЂ™t lead the consumer in any direction and offer no prompts on how to answer. If you force a yes or no answer in a question, you should be concerned. Aided questions prompt answers that may not reflect actual opinions. The International Consumer Attitudes Study, first released in 2011, provided a review of more than two dozen reports analyzing whatвЂ™s important to consumers when they buy food. Twelve new reports were added to the second edition, conducted in the spring of 2013.37 The combined review included 35 studies from 26 countries, accounting for more than 100,000 consumers. We conducted a global search of all research that used unaided questions or consumer spend data. Consumer perceptions of innovative solutions in food production may be the biggest misunderstanding in the food chain today. Enough | 17 Cost, Taste, Nutrition, Choice Impact Purchase 2013 International Consumer Attitudes Study вЂ“ 2nd Edition вЂў 34 studies вЂў 26 countries Unaided questions Spending data вЂў 100,000+ consumers 99% Food Buyer: 95% Luxury Buyer: 4% Fringe вЂў Taste вЂў Cost вЂў Nutrition вЂў Luxury/Gourmet вЂў Organic/Local вЂў Gardens вЂў Food bans вЂў Restrictions вЂў Propositions The findings are consistent with previous studies вЂ“ 95% of shoppers value taste, cost and nutrition most when they make food purchases. They are supportive or neutral about using safe innovation to grow the food they eat. Another 4% purchase food primarily based on lifestyle or luxury factors like vegetarian/vegan principles, support for organic systems, local food, and other ideologies. Money matters less to the luxury food segment. What these groups have in common is they both want the right to choose. Unlike the remaining fringe вЂ“ a small, vocal group that seeks to impose their agenda on others and take choices away from the majority. Consumer research must focus on two key criteria: unaided questions and consumer spending data.37 #3. Calls to Consumer Spending Food industry concern quickly increases when call line inquiries grow. But a consumer with questions doesnвЂ™t create a representative sample of consumer opinion. Further, itвЂ™s difficult to determine if these are really buying customers, or part of a fringe campaign вЂ“ a socially or politically driven attempt to take choice away from the broader food chain. Rather, spending data вЂ“ how consumers vote with their wallet вЂ“ gives us greater insight to any concerns. Cost is Now Most Important to Consumers 50 nielsen source: +13% 40 -14% 30 +2% 2011 2013 % 20 10 0 Cost Taste Nutrition Other And now more than ever, consumers are focused on how they spend their money. Cost is a major factor in food purchases, even in wealthy countries.37, 38 When NielsenвЂ™s pollsters asked 13,000 U.S. and UK consumers in the spring of 2013 about the most important factor in their food purchasing decision, cost jumped 12% from 2011 to the #1 spot.38, 39, 40 And that holds true for shoppers with incomes up to $70,000 per year. From Shanghai to Sao Paulo and Seattle to Sub-Saharan Africa, food costs matter more now than ever. Other factors have little influence. вЂњSome other factor,вЂќ which could include desire for organic, concerns about GMO or other variables, accounted for just 2% of the purchase decisions, and tended to be slightly higher among British shoppers.38, 39 Choices Have Consequences In developed countries, most consumers have many choices when it comes to their food supply вЂ“ a dazzling array of products, brands and price points to consider. Some choose to spend more on foods that reflect their value systems. Yet in developing nations, choices are more limited, and so is the ability to treat food as a luxury item or a lifestyle choice. The question the world faces now is whether the choices of wealthy consumers should be imposed upon the emerging middle class. Is it fair вЂ“ or justifiable вЂ“ for shoppers living in comfort to disregard innovations that can help feed others? LetвЂ™s take GMOs as an example. Some countries have cited the Precautionary Principle to reject biotech crops, which have delivered billions of pounds of extra food while reducing pesticide use. Meanwhile, experts worldwide have repeatedly found genetically modified food safe. A recent study by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences noted that after billions of meals served, вЂњno adverse health effects attributed to genetic engineering have been documented in the human population.вЂќ41 Limiting innovation due to вЂњwhat ifвЂќ Precautionary Principles has never had more negative ramifications than it will today. Not one person has suffered negative effects from innovations like GMOs, yet 25,000 people die every day from malnutrition.42 We need to focus on solutions instead of arguing вЂњwhat-ifвЂќ scenarios that have no scientific basis. 18 | Enough Solution #3: Trade вЂ“ Food Must Move INNOVATION CHOICE TRADE вЂњWhen trade crosses borders, armies do not.вЂќ вЂ“ Cordell Hull, former U.S. Secretary of State Efforts are mobilized worldwide to build the capacity of local farmers around the globe, increasing innovation to feed their nations. While we believe every country can improve its production, not every country will be self-sufficient. And from an environmental standpoint, many shouldnвЂ™t be. In those cases, food must be allowed to move. Eliminating barriers to the international movement of food is one of the most consequential ways to eliminate hunger and improve the lives of billions of people. It increases food availability and affordability by creating opportunities for all farmers to access larger markets, and by integrating economies вЂ“ it reduces political instability. These open markets allow supply and demand to trump other factors, which creates continued impact on costs, environmental footprint, and food choices. In the past 8 years, trade of meat and poultry globally has more than doubled in value, growing at about 9% annually, totaling US$134 billion in 2012.43 When Trade Increases, the Availability of Food Increases and Prices Decline When greater quantities of food are available at affordable prices, consumer consumption grows. For example, since the North American Free Trade Agreement was enacted, per capita consumption of pork in Mexico has jumped from just over 20 lbs per capita to nearly 40 lbs per person annually.45 That means millions of people with improved diets, breaking the cycle of malnutrition and improving lives! Meanwhile domestic production has actually grown,45 proof that imports can improve consumer access and affordability without harming the local industry. In fact, in most cases, the local producers increase efficiency and ultimately local production grows. Trade Increases Sustainability Growing food in highly productive areas where the resources exist, then moving it to areas of need, offers far more efficient use of resources. In fact, transportation accounts for less than 4% of the environmental impact of food production. Further, itвЂ™s cost effective. Refrigerated freight for a pound of meat to Asia adds just 15 cents on average to the cost.43 Reverse Trade Developing to Secure Food WeвЂ™re seeing increasing examples of reverse trade вЂ“ foreign companies and governments buying land and food production companies in highly efficient markets. China has invested in farmland in Africa, dairy companies in Europe and recently purchased the largest U.S. pork producer. For example, in the United States today, about 20% of chickens, 21% of cattle and 44% of pigs are processed by foreign-owned companies.44 Foreign Ownership of US Food Production 21% 44% 20% Expanding Trade Opportunities Requires Will and Commitment Reducing and eliminating tariffs, investing in infrastructure and implementing a science-based regulatory system take big-picture thinking and political courage. Still, food duties are among the highest for all goods at about 18%.43 While there has been progress, 160 of the 181 WTO member countries have at least one tariff line on food in excess of 100%! We can no longer allow politics to trump food security. The WTO estimates that reducing barriers on goods and services by one third would add US$613 billion to the world economy. The first steps start by reducing and eliminating key trade barriers. Tariffs Highest on Food 45 Food, Beverage, Tobacco Products 18% Animal, Fish Vegetable Products 12% 10% Textiles, Wood Pulp Machinery, Transportation 6% 0% 10% 20% Enough | 19 Make Food Security Your Cause Food security isnвЂ™t a problem that will solve itself. It requires a group of passionate people to fix it. A group of people that believe a solution is possible. We believe a food secure world can exist, a more sustainable, more peaceful world. The choice is whether we will stand up for food security or stand against it by remaining complacent. Join the movement TODAY! Sign and share the ENOUGH declaration and receive bi-monthly e-magazines to stay informed. The first people to sign up can also receive a free вЂњEnoughвЂќ t-shirt. Go to sensibletable.com and click on the вЂњJoin the ENOUGH MovementвЂќ link. Have you heard enough? Join the movement! The first to sign up will get a FREE Enough t-shirt so you can show your support for feeding all the people of the world. Make SensibleTable.com Your Food Security Resource Engage вЂ“ Download the ENOUGH advocate toolkit and use with your network. Connect with 1 of the 6 Faces of Food Security. Create your own story and vision and engage with key people in your circle of influence. Join the conversation onВ Twitter: #Feedthe9 Follow @elanco, @jeffsimmons2050 Author 20 | Enough Jeff Simmons, Elanco Since 2008 Jeff Simmons has served as president of Elanco, an innovation-driven company focused on improving the health, well-being and productivity of animals. ElancoвЂ™s vision is Food and Companionship Enriching Life. It is at the core of all we do. WeвЂ™re in the people business. We enrich lives by delivering safe, affordable, abundant food and by helping pets live longer, healthier lives. People with access to the right foods are healthier and Elanco will be a leader in helping people access and afford these better calories. SimmonsвЂ™ convictions and learnings come from ElancoвЂ™s cause-centered culture where the 4,000 employees focus on keeping the cause bigger than themselves and working in a collaborative way. This report outlines his vision for a food secure tomorrow gained from perspectives of these employees, farmers, food chain leaders and consumers around the world. It serves to generate a movement to fight for the necessary solutions to food security. SimmonsвЂ™ faith, foundation growing up on a New York farm and global experiences in more than 2 decades with Elanco created a deep conviction about the need for solutions References 1. Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO). вЂњHow to Feed the World in 2050вЂќ Rome. 12-13 October 2009. pg. 1-6 http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/ docs/expert_paper/How_to_Feed_the_World_ in_2050.pdf 2. Kharas, Homi. вЂњThe Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries.вЂќ Global Development Outlook. OECD Development Center. Working Paper No. 285. January 2010. http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf 3. Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO). вЂњWorld Livestock 2011: Livestock in Food Security.вЂќ Rome, 2011. 4. World Wildlife Fund (WWF). вЂњLiving Planet Report 2012: Biodiversity, biocapacity and better choices.вЂќ 5. United Nations. вЂњAs world passes 7 billion milestone, UN urges action to meet key challenges. вЂќ Oct. 31, 2011. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story. asp?NewsID=40257 6. U.S. Census Bureau, International database. 7. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United NationвЂ™s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021. 8. U.S. Census Bureau. Middle 60 percent of incomes. 9. The World Bank. Latin America: Middle Class hits Historic High. 10. WSB-TV. вЂњExperts: вЂ�Food desertsвЂ™ linked to childhood obesityвЂќ July 17, 2013 http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/expertsfood-deserts-linked-childhood-obesity/nYtPQ/ 11. Dimitri, Carolyn; Oberholtzer, Lydia. вЂњMarketing U.S. Organic Foods: Recent Trends from Farms to Consumers.вЂќ United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS). Economic Information Bulletin Number 58. September 2009. 12. National Public Radio вЂњLet them eat sandwiches: USDA Eases School Lunch RestrictionsвЂќ Jan. 3, 2014 13. Doward, Jamie. вЂњSupermarkets fear egg shortage as farms close over welfare rules.вЂќ The Observer. 3 March 2012. Accessed September 23, 2013. <http://www.theguardian.com/ environment/2012/mar/04/supermarketsfearegg-shortages> to achieve global food security. He believes we must all become activists for what we truly believe. CFI 2013 Hunger Solutions Survey Experts Loinda Baldrias, University of the Philippines Sylvie Brunel, Universite Paris-Sorbonne A graduate of Cornell University, Simmons resides with his wife, Annette, and six children in Carmel, Ind., U.S.A. Salvaction Bulatao, Philippines Department of Agriculture Contributing Writers Jason Clay, World Wildlife Fund Roger A. Cady, Elanco Colleen Parr Dekker, Elanco Steve Werblow, Steve Werblow Communications Ma Chuang, Deputy Secretary General, Chinese Association of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine Aalt Dijkhuizen, Wageningen University Rolando Dy, University of Asia and the Pacific Philippines Pierre Ferrari, CEO, Heifer International John Lamb, International Economic Growth Rita Imelda Palabyab, San Miguel Foods, Inc. Philippines Tsutomu Sekizaki, University of Tokyo Alastair Summerlee, President and ViceChancellor, University of Guelph Bob Thompson, Visiting scholar, Johns Hopkins University GCAAFFNON00062 14. Far-center. вЂњUn oeuf is not enough: France suffers major egg shortage.вЂќ Democraticunderground. com. March 2012. Accessed September 23, 2013 <http://www.democraticunderground. com/1002371686> 15. British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). вЂњDutch order probe into baby milk sales to China.вЂќ May 2013. Accessed September 23, 2013 <http:// www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22460796> 16. Lagi, Marco; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer. вЂњThe Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East.вЂќ New England Complex Systems Institute. Cambridge, MA. September 2011. 17. The New York Times. вЂњNeeding Pork, China Is to Buy a U.S. Supplier.вЂќ May 29, 2013 http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/ smithfield-to-be-sold-to-shuanghui-group-ofchina/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0 18. Gulf News. вЂњLand-grab phenomenon threatens AfricaвЂќ Dec. 29, 2013. http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/landgrab-phenomenon-threatens-africa-1.1271135 19. Kharas, Homi. вЂњThe Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries.вЂќ Global Development Outlook. OECD Development Center. Working Paper No. 285. January 2010. 20. All Africa. вЂњZimbabwe: Nation Faces Hunger As UN Cuts Food AidвЂќ Jan. 15, 2014 http://allafrica.com/stories/201401160341.html 21. The Wall Street Journal. вЂњWhat Egypt Wants: Cheaper Bread.вЂќ Sept. 18, 2013 22. Kirby, Alex. вЂњCutting Down Amazon for Agriculture Could Cut Yields.вЂќ Scientific American. May 2013 23. Branson, Adam. вЂњPoultry and Egg Prices and Trade Snapshot.вЂќ USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Gain (Global Agricultural Information Network) Report. Mexico, 2012. 24. Dr. Roger Cady. Elanco Animal Health. 2013 Global Food Forward Analysis. Based on FAO, FAOSTAT database. Data on File 25. Muehlhoff, E., et al. 2013, Milk and Dairy Products in Human Nutrition, FAO-UN, Rome, pp 107, 124 26. Dr. Roger Cady. Elanco Animal Health. Global Food Forward Analysis. 2013. Data on File. 27. Neumann, C.G. et al. вЂњMeat Supplementation Improves Growth, Cognitive, and Behavioral Outcomes in Kenyan Children.вЂќ Journal of Nutrition, 2007. UN Standing Committee on Nutrition, 2009. Roger Thurow, Author/Journalist, Senior Fellow, Chicago Council on Global Affairs 28. Weldon, W., Finn, S. вЂњAchieving Global Food Security: How the Nutritional Impact of Animal Source Foods Enriches LivesвЂќ. 2013. 29. USDA, Economic Research Service . Agricultural Productivity in the United States 30. J.L. Capper. вЂњThe environmental impact of beef production in the United States: 1977 compared with 2007.вЂќ Journal of Animal Science. 2011 31. J. L. Capper, R. A. Cady, and D. E. Bauman. вЂњThe environmental impact of dairy production: 1944 compared with 2007.вЂќ Journal of Animal Science. 2009 32. Cady, et al., JAM Abstract, 2013 33. Smith-Spangler, et al. вЂњAre Organic Foods Safer or Healthier Than Conventional Alternatives?: A Systematic Review. Annals of Internal Medicine, 157: 5. September 2012. 34. Verena Seufert, Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley вЂњComparing the yields of organic and conventional agriculture.вЂќ Nature 485. May 2012. 35. Center for Food Integrity. Global Hunger Solutions Survey. June 2013. 36. Elanco Animal Health. Media Monitoring.2013. Data on file. 37. International Consumer Attitudes Study. ICAS. Updated June 2013. Elanco Animal Health. Data on File. 38. The Nielsen Company. Omnibus Survey. UK. April 2013. 39. The Nielsen Company. Omnibus Survey. US. April 2013. 40. Nielsen Online Views Survey. Research Commissioned by Elanco Animal Health. October 2010. 41. Committee on Identifying and Assessing Unintended Effects of Genetically Engineered Foods on Human Health, National Research Council. Safety of Genetically Engineered Foods: Approaches to Assessing Unintended Health Effects. 2004. 42. Borlaug, N. 2009. вЂњFarmers Can Feed the World.вЂќ Wall Street Journal. Accessed September 16, 2009. <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014 24052970203517304574304562754043656. html>. 43. Brett Stuart, Global Agri-Trends. Global Trade Analysis. 2013. 44. Informa Economics. Foreign Ownership of Livestock Production in the USA. October 2013. 45. World Trade Organization, Average WTO duties by country. 2011