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心理学・人工知能研究の将来 戸田正直

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Toda, M. (1971) “Possible roles of psychology in the very distant future,”
Proceedings of the XIXth International Congress of Psychology, pp.
70-75. read at the closing session of that congress in the symposium
entitled “Psychology of the Future.”
Copyright © 1971 by British
Psychological Society, used by permission.
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Toda, M., Possible roles of psychology in the very distant future...….1
. 13 "#! .32
ii
Possible roles of psychology in the very distant future 1
Toda, M.
Obviously, someone has thought me mad enough to speculate about the
very distant future.
He was right.
But I am not so entirely tactless as
not to try deliberately to misunderstand the task in order to make it easier,
with the rationalization that speculations about a future that you will
never live to see would be meaningless unless they provided you with
some clues for planning your immediate future.
So I apologize in
advance to those who expected me to present interesting fantasies in
relation to psychology in the very distant future.
On topics like
telepathy, robotopsychologists, computers that make love, and so on --- I
will leave such fantasies for your personal dreams, but not because I don't
like to talk about them; on the contrary, I have long been hopelessly in
love with them.
The true reason for my reticence on these fantastic
topics is that they are not fantastic enough. Our future is wild, wilder than
our wildest imagination.
To estimate the degree of wildness, imagine, for example, that
somebody gave you a time machine that could go back to the past and
could carry no material evidence to prove you were a time-traveler.
Suppose, on board this machine, you moved back two centuries.
Naturally, you would be elated by your ancestors’ ignorance and would
want to demonstrate the superiority of your knowledge by attempting to
teach them, say, physics, relativity theory, quantum mechanics, and all
that kind of esoteric stuff.
religion.
The result?
At best, you would start a new
Far more likely, you would find your audience blankly smiling
at you, and when you blankly smiled back at them they would quietly
1
.P roceedings of the XIXth Int ernational Congress of Psychology, pp. 70-75. read at th e
closing session of that congress in the symposium enti tled “Psychology of the Future. ”
Copyright © 1971 by Briti sh Psychological Soci et y, used by perm ission. 1
escort you to a mental hospital.
According to my speculations, psychology will make tremendous
progress in the coming century, comparable to the progress made by
physics in the last century.
In contrast to cultural progress, biological
progress is slow. So even if I were a time-traveler from the future, who
knew precisely what the psychology of the very distant future would be, I
wouldn't tell because I am quite sure that your reactions to such
revelations would be identical to those of your ancestors.
So with these rationalizations I will define my task as that of
speculating on the possible roles of psychology, instead of speculating on
the possible contents of psychology, in the very distant future.
This task
is easier to accomplish, and I have a conclusion ready.
In the very distant future, psychology will be the master science.
Psychology will be the most important of all the sciences.
Very simple.
Otherwise, mankind will not survive.
survive, there will be no psychology.
The reason?
And if no people
At least, so I believe.
this conclusion is not free from premises.
Naturally
The premises are: First, the
Earth will not be visited by aliens --- by extraterrestrial beings with
civilizations superior to ours.
Second, Einstein will not be proved
wrong; in other words, we will not be able to break the speed-of-light
barrier, and mankind will be cooped up in a tiny speck of space called the
solar system, or the greater solar system, including a couple of nearby
star systems.
Putting these two conditions together, it means that the
greater solar system is virtually closed.
We will fill it up sooner or later
if we survive, and there will be no exit to the rest of the galaxy.
We will
then have to learn, somehow, how to live with our fellow man; and, in
order to accomplish this very difficult task, our attention must inevitably
be oriented toward the inner world within ourselves.
My subjective probability that these two conditions both hold is not
very high.
It is particularly so with Einstein's theory.
2
The fact that his
theory has remained undisproved for more than fifty years is nothing
compared to the vast span of time we are considering under the
ambiguous heading of the very distant future.
In order to keep our subjective sense of time from faltering before such
an awe-inspiring span of time, let me propose a devaluation of our
conven-tional time scale.
How about calling ten years a blink of time?
(It goes nicely with calling the greater solar system a speck of space.)
How long is a blink?
Let's put it at half a second.
With this new scale,
each man lives an ephemeral life of about three to four seconds.
The
twentieth century began about three and a half seconds ago, and Christ
was born about one and a half minutes ago.
Note also that the first man
was born on earth about one day back, the first Homo sapiens around
thirty minutes ago, the first living thing about six years past, and the
Earth was created roughly around eight years ago.
And Einstein's theory
has passed undisproven for three and a half seconds.
Personally, I feel it is best for the benefit of mankind that Einstein is
proved wrong and intergalactic explorations become feasible.
will see what will happen.
Then you
You are psychologists and you know man.
No one will be able to stop him from expanding over the galaxy for
exploration and colonization.
What will follow this expansion is hard to
predict, but most of these earth colonies will essentially repeat our past
histories, with infinite variations.
They may wage wars and may blow
up a couple of planets, but the galaxy is large, and there are always other
places for man to survive.
Psychology will progress especially through
contacts with alien species
because that will tell us what we really are.
Needless to say, the greatest hindrance toward the progress of psychology
is that we do not know what we really do not know about ourselves.
Nonetheless, psychology will not become the center of all sciences, for
there will be too many interesting things in the outer universe to divert
our attention from the inner universe.
3
Still, this is a wonderful future of
a space-opera paradigm.
Now, however, I have to turn my attention to
the comparatively more grim type of future that might be the reality in
case the greater solar system happens to be closed.
As I have said, mankind is about one day old, and during most of this
short period man didn't do anything particularly conspicuous -- that is
until very recently, when he built the pyramid of Giza only four minutes
ago.
After the construction of the pyramids, man did many other
conspicuous things, but almost the only form of mechanical energy
utilized for his doings was the muscle power of men and animals, until the
steam engine was invented by James Watt ten seconds ago.
It is during
these last few seconds that the human environment has changed so
tremendously, as highlighted by the landing on the moon a few
nanoseconds ago.
constantly.
Obviously, the speed of change has accelerated
In most of our ancestors' time, it was quite natural that one
died in a world that was little different from the world into which one had
been born.
But some of us have experienced unprecedented world wars
that have changed almost every thing -- not just one war, but two.
Isn't this amazing?
By pure coincidence we seem to be witnessing a
very special period in history.
It is special, not because we have landed
on the moon or discovered some of the secrets of atoms, but because this
is a period of great change, which I'd like to call the Transition.
We are
very lucky to witness this Transition, since it will occupy a negligibly
brief moment in the vast span of time that will be human history -provided man survives it.
According to my speculation, the present Transition will not be a
singular occasion.
As long as man survives, he will occasionally
experience similar transitions, the present one being the first of a great
magnitude.
Each time, however, the transition will take place in a
comparatively short period, and between transitions we shall have
relatively long, near steady-state periods.
4
You may ask, of course, why I assume the Transition to take only a
short interval of time.
Can't ours, for example, continue indefinitely,
marking progress after progress?
This seems, unfortunately, utterly
impossible because the change is inexorably accelerated.
are dubious about the fact of acceleration,
If some of you
I would suggest you pick a
couple of important indicators -- the maximum speed of human
locomotion, the average rate of information transmission addressed at
each person, and so on -- and plot their values against chronological time.
The curves will clearly show acceleration, and for some of them the rate
of acceleration, too, may appear accelerated.
By extrapolating these
curves, you will find that they go
to infinity even before the end of the present century.
Probably you don't believe in extrapolations.
whole point.
Neither do I. That is the
If these measures, and therefore the underlying processes,
are not allowed to go to infinity, then something must happen,
intentionally or unintentionally, to slow down the speed of change.
When this happens the braking action will inevitably create tremendous
heat.
It seems to me that there are already signs to indicate the nearness
of this stage.
In order to interpret the essence of the Transition correctly, need a
well-chosen set of macroscopic measures to represent the process.
Since
no such set exists, I will do my best here with only one measure, which I
shall call energy for the lack of any better name.
It is not the energy of
physics that is to be conserved, but rather energy in the everyday sense
--something to be consumed.
The notion I want to use here is a negative
entropy, which would nicely subsume the properties of energy and
information if properly generalized from its original physical sense to a
new notion with the wider coverage I need now.
A generalization,
however, is not easy,
nor have I time to venture one.
So, as a best substitute, let me use the
5
everyday sense of energy, which actually is close to the notion of negative
entropy in physical systems.
It does not, however, cover another
important form of negative entropy: information.
So let me emphasize
here, to make up my shortage of the coverage of the notion of energy, that,
very roughly speaking, information and energy are convertible to each
other.
For example, geological information allows us to tap a large
underground source energy like petroleum and coal.
In this mining process, as well as in any other processes with which we
are concerned, man is the primary agent who uses information to get
energy.
It is man's work that makes all these "conversions" possible.
And work consumes energy; the energy is supplied primarily by the food
he intakes.
In ancient times, work was done for the most part to obtain
food, as it still is in many parts of the world, which makes the process a
closed cycle. Here, however, the factor of fluctuation comes in.
Sometimes one would have been unfortunate and died from a shortage of
energy; sometimes one would have been lucky and obtained excess
energy, and some portion of such excess energy might have been
converted to information.
Some such information might have been
useful in obtaining more food with less energy.
It would then increase
the probability of obtaining more excess energy.
This situation was the
beginning
of
a
positive
feedback
process
in
the
form
of
an
information-control cycle.
In feedback systems an action of a machine or organism produces a
result that, in turn, affects the state of the machine itself.
If a
locomotive, for instance, contained a fuel feedback system such that, with
each turn of a wheel, an increased amount of fuel was injected in the
engine to increase speed, this would be positive feedback.
It should be
clear from this illustration that positive feedback leads to unstable
systems; the locomotive would eventually go so fast that it would jump
6
the tracks or its engine would explode.
A locomotive in this case would
be designed so that each increase in speed would result in an automatic
decrease in fuel injected into the engine and vice versa.
arrangement would result in a stable speed.
This
The home heating system
controlled by a thermostat is a familiar example of a negative feedback
system; it keeps room temperature constant.
Actually it took a long time before this positive feedback operation
began to operate in full force as it does now.
Remember that mankind
has about a twenty-four-hour history, and things began appreciably
accelerating little less than a minute ago.
The primary reason for this
slowness is that nature has ample negative feedback means to
counterbalance any positive feedback.
When a tribe has had the good
fortune to obtain excess food regularly, the advantage would sooner or
later have been dissipated by various causes, like population increase,
invasion of neighboring tribes, and so on.
Although, in a way, greater
population offers a better chance of producing excess energy, by division
of labor or by greater defense against attack, it also means greater
vulnerability to epidemics, and so on.
It must therefore have been a long
time before the greater information-better control positive feedback cycle
overcame, one by one, these countless buttresses of nature.
When,
however, most of nature's buttresses fell, the monopolizing positive
feedback cycle began to show its full power.
It is something like what
happens when you throw a lighted cigarette on a carpet: the cigarette
starts to burn the carpet, but it seldom becomes a real fire because the
new material adjacent to the burn usually works to cool it.
If, however,
by some chance the heat overcomes the cooling effect, a positive
feedback mechanism of rapidly expanding fire begins, and the adjacent
materials work as heat producers rather than heat absorbers.
behaved in a similar way.
apparently gave in.
Nature has
It seems to have cooperated with us after it
It has offered us a lot of excess energy hidden in the
7
ground and in atoms, and now a staggering amount of energy hidden in
light atoms is about to be handed to us.
I would rather like to refuse to
think about the implications of this last possibility.
So far anyway, human civilization has flourished, and we seem to have
enjoyed it.
This is testimony to our superb adaptability.
Every
morning, while munching our breakfast, we read newspapers reporting a
couple of technological breakthroughs that will later have great impact on
our society -- the kinds of breakthroughs our ancestors experienced at
best only once in their lifetimes.
our appetite spoiled.
Still, we are not at all impressed, nor is
Even this surprising adaptability must have its
limit, as we are often warned.
But long before this limit is reached,
other things in our society will reach the breaking point.
These are our
social systems: political, economic, educational, legal -- all these systems.
The original forms of these systems were created long ago to handle much
less energy (including information) than they have to handle now.
We
have constantly revised these systems so as to meet new demands, but
there are structural limits to their energy-handling capacities.
their capacity is reached, there will be an overflow.
Once
The disorganized
energy overflow, no longer channeled by systems in a constructive
direction, will properly be called heat.
Although I cannot elaborate my
argument now, an intense heat will tend to disorganize the internal
structure of these systems.
In Japan it is the university system that is
now about to melt.
As
mentioned,
man
may be viewed as
information-energy conversion process.
the catalyzer
in the
One of the greatest products of
this catalyzing act is the growth of social systems, which is again a form
of information accumulation.
So, while systems were functioning
properly, they absorbed people's excess energy and grew.
When two
systems became obstacles to each other's growth, they collided, as in wars.
But soon, if nothing is done to prevent it, the time may come when no
8
systems will be solid enough to collide effectively.
I am oversimplifying, of course.
more
rigorous
predictions.
As I said before, we need a much
social-psychological
science
to
make
dependable
Still, there are symptoms that from now on social systems
may fail, not because of corruption or defeat in conflicts, but because of
their inefficiency as systems in an extremely energized society.
One of
the symptoms is the prevailing feeling of purposelessness among the
younger generation in highly energized societies, which indicates a lack
of ideologies and beliefs strong enough to absorb their energies.
Naturally, I could say a lot more about these things, but my time is
running short.
However I hope that I have made my point clear.
We
are about to face the very important problem of finding an entirely new
kind of social system, which can effectively absorb a very large amount
of energy so that the social temperature can be cooled down.
In order to
absorb people's energy effectively, the system must provide a strong
purpose to which people can willingly devote their ever-increasing excess
energies.
The problem is unprecedented, and the solution must be a kind
never dreamed of before. For example, the solution may take the form of
dynamic systems --- dynamic systems that well allow their constituent
members extreme mobility, spatial as well as vocational and positional.
At least one thing is clear:
We need to find entirely new dimensions for
systems to absorb a lot of new energy, and such a new dimension may be
found only through knowing man better, knowing what really makes him
tick.
Even that, however, isn't enough. Suppose we find a solution.
In the
new social system, almost everybody is happy, since each person is given
a meaningful role that allows him to spend his energy toward a
constructive goal.
The result?
A tremendous upsurge toward progress.
It will be only a matter of time before the new system becomes incapable
of handling all the newly created excess energy.
9
The final solution, therefore, should be a social system that not only
absorbs all the loose energy but also puts an end to the positive feedback
cycle
that is now carrying us away with neck-breaking acceleration.
This appears to be an almost impossible task, but we seem to have no
choice.
The end of the present great Transition is in sight, a couple of
seconds at most.
If we succeed in finding such a final solution in time,
then the stasis period following the Transition will be a rather pleasant
one.
Otherwise, we cannot maintain civilization, and at best we will
have to start all over again from barbarism.
Whether or not we will
succeed in finding the solution depends on how rapidly we can advance
the new psychology.
Although it is certainly beyond my capacity to envisage the
characteristics of this final solution, let me venture a couple of
speculations with which I can justify this presentation under the title of
the roles of psychology in the very distant future.
Obviously, the
primary role of psychology in this future society, which is assumed to be
in a state of dynamic stability, is to contribute to the soundness of the
society.
As assumed, the society is highly energized, and since there is
no stable solution that allows some small fraction of the people to
monopolize energ y, every individual will be endowed with abundant
energy and information at his or her disposal.
The very dynamism and
stability of this society will imply kaleidoscopically changing yet
profoundly self-disciplined cultures.
Such a society may give you an
impression of a sort of utopia, and it really is in a certain sense.
However, the people living in this era will envy us, the inhabitants of the
Transition, who had one basic freedom that they miss --the freedom of
reproducing energy.
In my hypothesis, this freedom of re-producing
energy through energy-information conversion, or, in plain words, the
freedom of voluntary work, is the very core of human motivation.
The
renunciation of this freedom, which is inevitable to maintain the stability
10
of a highly energized society, will not be a task that is easily achieved and
maintained.
First, it can be achieved only through unanimous consensus,
since no person in this society will have a power to force others to do
things against their will.
The expected very high mobility alone of
people in this society will put the whole society in a sort of fluid state
rather than a solid state, and in fluid-state society no particular person or
persons can be almighty.
Such a consensus may be obtained through proper education, provided
that there always remains some way for each individual to satisfy his
motivation for doing something worthwhile.
The heavy burden and
grave responsibility of finding a solution to this problem will be put upon
the shoulders of psychologists.
They should therefore go deep into
everyone's nook and cranny of motivation on the one hand, and on the
other they should carefully plan and calculate the net effect of everyone's
works.
Not that individual effects must always cancel out.
impossible.
This is plainly
Probably, one thing that should be tried is to give to
potential troublemakers, the creativity-thirsty few, really grand projects,
so grand that no immediate energy return can be expected.
I am rather
unimaginative and can find only trivial examples here, like putting
asteroids together to form a new habitable planet, or teaching animals to
talk with an artificial vocal cord, or finding a new space-time conception
that will make relativity theory a special case, and so on.
However
grand the projects may be, the time will come sooner or later when some
of them will be completed and may produce a tremendous amount of new
energy; furthermore, there will always be the danger of dismally useful
by-products.
So the psychologists, who are engaging in the grandest of
all the grand projects, the one of finding an even better solution of a
stable society that can be maintained under an ever-higher energy level,
must hurry.
Once this is done, people can enjoy another transition, the
11
carnival of mankind, the time of almost unlimited freedom.
If you are
creative, you may create anything you want, even a crazy machine that
produces energy rather than consumes it.
If you are a power-thirsty type,
you may even be allowed to attempt to build your own absolute monarchy
through abusing the knowledge of the very advanced psychology to
control people.
This attempt, however, is bound to fail because long
before reaching this stage, psychology will have had to over come the
dangers of its own abuse, dangers even more serious than those of nuclear
warfare.
Still, you will be allowed to try, because there will be
psychologists whose science will be so rigorous that the successful
ending of the second transition will be 99.999 percent guaranteed.
So here I come back to my conclusion again.
master science in the very distant future.
survive.
Psychology must be the
Otherwise, mankind will not
Whether or not you believe me, probably all of you will agree
to my other, more practical, conclusion: Government, of your country,
should spend more money and manpower, or, equivalently, energy and
information, to facilitate rapid advancement of psychological science.
The need for a really powerful science of psychology is already great but
will increase acceleratingly, in order to effectively prevent nuclear wars,
to find new dynamic social systems, and to let the precious mankind
survive.
And we cannot wait very long, certainly not until the very
distant future, to achieve this goal.
12
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