Digital Consumer Market Outlook - Optical Storage Technology

Digital Consumer Market Outlook
～The next generation is HD～
Yoshihisa Toyosaki
President & CEO
j-STAR Global, Inc.
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1
OSS 2006 - Agenda

Global Market Trend
Digital Consumer Trend
New DVC Trend：AVCHD
Conclusion
Technology
2
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Global GDP Growth Outlook
•中国を中心に、アジア地域が高成長の見通し
2003年～2030年までの実質経済成長率見通し
8
6.9
7
6
5
4
4.1
3.1
C AG R
3.1
3
1.8
2
1.5
1
NI
Es
*A
SE
AN
4
ia
In
d
hi
na
C
n
pa
Ja
EU
er
ic
a
0
Am
%
4.1
(出典) 内閣府「世界経済の潮流 2004年秋」よりジェイスター㈱作
成
*ASEAN4:マレーシア、タイ、インドネシア、フィ
リピン
3
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Semiconductor WW Market Trend
100%
90%
22%
23%
25%
25%
29%
80%
70%
23%
21%
60%
22%
23%
22%
21%
23%
21%
42%
23%
21%
21%
45%
19%
22%
20%
30%
20%
38%
24%
50%
40%
36%
33%
33%
32%
31%
10%
19%
19%
17%
26%
22%
19%
18%
18%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
A sia P acific
J apan
E urope
A m ericas
0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
(出典) ＷＳＴＳよりジェイスター㈱作成 2006年8月
4
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Reduction of Japan Market
・日本の人口は、 2000年より、年率1%以上で減少へ
2000年1.2億人 → 2030年1.1億人 → 2050年：約1億人
140,000
120,000
22,041
28,735
34,559
100,000
34,770
36,332
35,863
80,000
千
人
60,000
86,380
81,665
74,453
69,576
40,000
60,990
65歳以上
15～64歳
0～14歳
53,889
20,000
18,505
17,074
15,095
13,233
12,017
10,842
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0
(出典) 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所中位推計 (平成14年1月) よりジェイスター㈱グラフ作成 2006
年7月
5
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Expansion of Global Market
・人口爆発：2000年から2050年まで、30億人増大
・人口増加地域が、電子機器と半導体の消費を促す
2000年：60.9億人 →2030年：81.9億人 →2050年：90.8億人
100
90
80
70
60
億
50
人
40
0.
3.31
5.2
7.3
0.
3.45
6
7.3
0.
3.48
6.7
0.4
4
7.2
6.8
0.5
4.4
7.8
6.5
7
7.1
14.6
17
19.4
12.3
10.1
8.1
30
20
0.5
4.2
7.6
36.8
48.7
50.9
52.2
41.3
45.5
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
オセアニア
北アメリカ
中南米
ヨーロッパ
アフリカ
アジア
10
0
2000
(出典) (財)日本原子力文化振興財団「原子力図面集」よりジェイスター㈱作成
6
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Electronics VS Automotive Market
地域別売上高：日本エレクトロニクス産業は、世界市場に進出する余地あり
Major electronics
Major Automotive
companies
companies
A sia
P acific
20%
Europe
11%
（Matsushita・
Hitachi・Toshiba）
Japan
56%
A sian
P acific
20%
Japan
26%
Europe
13%
N orth
A m erica
13%
海外売上比率：約44％
（Toyota・Nissan・
Honda）
N orth
A m erica
41%
海外売上比率：約74％
(出典) 日本政策投資銀行、各社決算資料よりジェイスター㈱作成 2006年 7月
7
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Semiconductor Midterm Forecast -In a decade future2007年団塊の世代
が定年退職
事業継続判断へ
継続・M&A・分社
etc
2012年に向けた
事業計画が必要
2006-2007
2010-2012
第3四半期
2010～12年頃
世界経済軟化へ
電子機器・半導体業界の再
編
2001年ドットコム・
バブル崩壊
世界経済の
中期予測
Silicon cycle
2008-2009
シリコン・サイクルでは、谷
間に
（出典）WSTS
日本企業が体力のあるうちに、業界再編を行うべきだろう→日本復
活へ
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8
New Industrial Structure
Vendor & User
Region
M&A / Investment
ICT
Application
Devices
Machinery
Materials
ye
R&D
Technology & Alliance
Create New Business
Contents
9
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Digital Consumer Forecast
M ain D igital A ppliance F orecast (m illion $ R evenue)
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2005
M ain D igital A pplian c e
D V D re c o rde r
2006F
LC D /P D P T V s
STB
2007F
2008F
D igital C am c o rde r
D igital C am e ra
2009F
D V D playe r
10
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FPD WW Forecast
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
R ear projection
PDP
LC D
万
8,000
台
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(出典) ジェイスター株式会社 2006年8月
11
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Comparison of MP3 audio
2006年第2四半期携帯電話(ハイエンド)とM P 3 販売台数
3,500
3,000
2,500
千
台
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
N okia(N series)
A pple (iP od)
出典）各社ＨＰよりジェイスター㈱グラフ作成 2006年8月
注) Nokia Nseriesは、音楽再生機能も持つNokia社のハイエンド携帯電話
12
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Next Generation HD DVC?
13
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History&Specification of DVC
SD spec (present)：25Mbit/sec.
AVCHD:18Mbit/sec.

＜経過＞

1994年：HDTV方式のベースバンド信号を記録
する仕様を固める話し合いがされた
1997年：日本のHD仕様50Mbit/sec.は、MUSE
方式からフル・デジタル方式へ移行すること
が決定
2006年： AVCHDが市場投入 DVD&FLASH SD
200X年：次世代機AVCHD BDが市場投入
14
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DVC Solution (NEC Electronics)
15
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Compression Technology of DVC’ｓ

DCT
MPEG-2
MPEG-4
H.264/MPEG-4 AVC
＜Consumers’ Initiative in DVC Market＞
Users usually make use of the digital camcorder for their kids,
families, and friends at ,e.g., parities and events.
Need storage capacity for 1 hour record, at least.
16
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Digital Storage Media

8 mm tape
Mini DV tape
8 cm DVD Disk
8 cm Next Generation Disk (Blu-ray:BD)
HDD
FLASH SD Card （Possible to replace
HDD market if new media emerges. ）
17
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Analog Camcorder VS DVC
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
千
8,000
台
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
A nalog
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
DVC
出典：ＢＯＣデータよりジェイスター推計
18
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2005 DVC Market Share(Japan)
About 1.5 million units shipment in 2005
(5.7% down compared to last year’s)
6%
2%
14%
38%
14%
S ony
M atsushita
JV C
C anon
H itachi
O thers
26%
(出典) 日経産業新聞
19
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DVC Market Ranking(Japan)
First Week Ranking in Sep. 2006
Rank
Company
Type
CCD moving Pixels
Format
1
Hitachi
DZ-HS303
2.18Million
ＤＶＤ/ＨＤＤ
2
Matsushita
VDR-D300
1.92Million
ＤＶＤ
3
Sony
DCR-DVD505
1.91Million
ＤＶＤ
4
Sony
HDR-UX1
1.43Million
ＤＶＤ
5
Sony
HDR-HC3
1.43Million
Mini ＤＶＤ
(出典) 日経BP・GfK Salesweek3200
20
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8cm DVD DVC
Forecast
(by Vender)
Production and
2005(CY)
(thousand
unit)
2006(CY)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
550
650
650
650
2500
0
0
0
50
Hitachi
150
150
100
Canon
0
0
Samsung
0
700
Sony
Matsushit
a
Total
Total
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
600
700
800
800
2900
50
180
200
250
200
830
180
580
150
150
150
180
630
160
150
310
120
150
180
150
600
0
0
0
0
0
30
50
80
170
800
910
1030
3440
1060
1230
1430
1410
5130
21
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DVC Market Forecast
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
千
台
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
A nalog
2002
2003
M iniD V
O DD
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
H D D /F lash
出典：ＢＯＣデータよりジェイスター推計
22
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8cm DVD DVC WW Forecast
1 ,6 0 0
1 ,4 0 0
1 ,2 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
千
台
800
600
400
200
0
2005Q 1
2005Q 2
2005Q 3
2005Q 4
2006Q 1
2006Q 2
2006Q 3
2006Q 4
8cm D V D D V C
3 million units (2005), 5 million units (2006)
23
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What happens in HDV?

What is HDV?

Home HDV Code decided by Canon, Sharp, Sony,
Victor – possible to record HD images quality to
present DV tape.
What happens in HDV?

Emerging AVCHD － HDV will be disappeared.
Crowded Field for users － Lack of Marketing
Strategy
“middle relief”
24
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AVCHD Spec
記録メディア
8 cm DVD, SD
記録波長
650 nm
映像
音声
Card
ビデオ信号
1080/60i
1080/50i
1080/24p
720/60p
720/50p
720/24p
480/60i
576/50i
画素数(水平×垂直)
1920 x 1080
1440 x 1080
1280 x 720
720 x 480
720 x 576
アスペクト比
16 : 9
16 : 9
4:3, 16:9
4:3, 16:9
圧縮方式
MPEG-4 AVC/H.264
輝度サンプリング
74.25 MHz
13.5MHz
13.5MHz
サンプリング構造
4:2:0
量子化ビット
8 ビット(輝度/色差共)
圧縮方式
ドルビーデジタル
リニアＰＣＭ
圧縮後のビットレート
64～640kbps
1.5Mbps(2チャンネル)
音声モード
1～5.1チャンネル
1～7.1チャンネル
74.25MHz
システム
MPEG-2 トランスポートストリーム
システムビットレート
～18Mbps
25
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Sony HD Camcorder Spec
Items
HDR-UX1
HDR-SR1
Image Sensor
1/3 type CMOS Sensor
1/3 type CMOS Sensor
Pixels (Still Image)
4 million pixels
4 million pixels
Pixels (Moving)
1.43 million pixels
1.43 million pixels
Zoom
Opt 10times, Digital 80times
Opt 10times, Digital 80times
LCD Monitor
3.5 type
3.5 type
Media
DVD-R/DVD+R,
DL/DVD-RW/DVD+RW
HDD
Weight
600g
640g
Size
Width 76 x Height 89 x
Depth 165mm
Width 76 x Height 89 x
Depth 165mm
Shooting Hour
(by battery)
50minuts
55minuts
26
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HDV vs AVCHD vs ・・・？

Is AVCHD the Front Runner？

Or, is it just a “middle relief”?

Next Generation Disk is BD DVD
FLASH SD？
or
BD DVD + H.264 MPEG-4 AVC
27
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Labyrinth in the Digital Camcorder
Market……
28
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Emerging “Contents” Market:
Flash VS HDD
DVD software market in US starts to shrink in 2006 – “VOD” market is growing.
H D D : P rice per G B
N A N D : P rice per G B
40 36.98
3,500
2000-2008
35
3,000
CAGR-30％
30
2000-2008
2,859
CAGR -42％
2,500
25
2,000
20
1,500
15
500
5
0.83
53
0.44
11
0
20 4
05
20 E
06
20 E
07
20 E
08
E
03
20
20
02
20
01
20
00
99
20
98
19
19
0
20 4
05
20 E
06
20 E
07
20 E
08
E
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
19
99
0
98
0
19
811
1,000
7.8
10
(出典) ジェイスター㈱による推計 2006年7月
29
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What’s Next Generation DVC ?
Sony
Handycam
AVCHD BD
Shift to CMOS sensor Promote the shift to
HD
Matsushita DIGCAM
AVCHD
Start to sell DVD camcorder
AVCHD-FLASH SD Card
JVC
HDD
DVD Camcorder?
Hitachi Wooo
AVCHD BD
HDD/DVD camcorder
(Advantageous position)
Canon
AVCHD BD
HDD&FLASH SD
AVCHD BD
Enter this market again? Blu-ray?
AVCHD-FLASH?
Slump in FLASH camcorder
HDD(→FLASH)
Targeting 30GB for FLASH
HDD is superior for HD camcorder?
DVD
Own Technology
Everio
iVIS
Sharp
Sanyo
Toshiba
Xacti
gigashot
Samsung VM-DC560
BD
3CCD
30
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Appearance of AVCHD

AVCHD ： co-developed by Sony and Matsushita for
record HD image
Sony sells HDR-UX1 (Sep. 2006)：Targeting the
shipment of 30 thousand units (HDR-SR1(loading
HDD) can record HD image for 11 hours, which will
be sold in Oct. 2006. Targeting the shipment of 20
thousand units)
Sony：The half of the shipment will be HD until the
end of 2006.
Sony’s strategy： Users can watch the 8cm DVD disk
recorded by AVCHD without any operation (by
appliances such as PS3)
Merchandize HD - Differentiation Products in digital
camcorder market
Japan/Asia Market：Replacement Demand in Japan
high-end consciousness market
EU Market：Start the growth of HD camcorder market
around 2008
31
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DVC Venders’ Strategy

Sony
Start to sell HD
DVC (Mini DV tape)
Introduce the HD DVC (AVCHD code)
Matsushita
Introduce the camcorder based on AVCHD code with Sony
Introduce the FLASH SD card AVCHD
Hitachi
Introduce HDD and DVD-R DL (two layer) , a sort of
“Hybrid Camcorder”
Canon
Introduce the camcorder for 8cm DVD-R DL (two layer)
media
Samsung
Introduce the original camcorder for 8cm DVD+R DL (two
layer) media at CES2006.
Others
Sanyo -Sell the camcorder based on FLASH SD card;
however, its price is not competitive.
32
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Conculusion

Ｊ－STAR Predicts

Merchandize the Double Disk format： bit
rate for recording is higher. Keep the
recording hours with 12 cm DVD Disk
→ Have the ability against Blue-ray & HD
The coming generation is HD!!
33
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