JX 4:28 (Dec 23, 2009)

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Volume 4 ＃28, December 23, 2009
Headlines
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S＆P/世銀IFCの炭素効率指標
世界銀行グループで民間セクター支援を行う国際金融公社（IFC）と米格付け機関 S&P は、新興市場の炭素
効率指標を初めて算出・発表する。これは、発展途上国の炭素効率が良い企業へ今後 3 年間で少なくとも
10 億ドルを民間投資すること、そして二酸化炭素の排出削減を促進することを目的とする。
S&P, World Bank Launch Emerging Markets Index Based on Carbon Efficiency
(SolveClimate online, December 10, 2009)
英、不正疑惑でケニアの教育支援を凍結
ケニアの貧困地域で新しい教育施設を建設し教科書を購入するための基金から約 130 万ドルが横領された
為、英国はケニアの教育部門への援助を凍結した。
UK Freezes Kenya School Funding amid Fraud Allegations
(Financial Times, December 15, 2009, p 2)
ジンバブエの「紛争ダイヤモンド」争議、国連言及せず
欧米の援助国は、「紛争ダイヤモンド」に関する国連の報告書を激しく批判している。報告書では、この紛争
ダイヤモンドの取引を禁ずる国際認定制度「キンバリー・プロセス」にジンバブエが明らかに違反しているにも
かかわらず、採択された決議では、ジンバブエの違法取引について特に言及していない。
Zimbabwe "Blood Diamonds" Dispute Breaks Out At U.N. (Reuters online, December 11, 2009)
欧州諸国、国際金融取引税の導入をIMFに要請
欧州諸国の政府は、国際金融取引において「トービン税」を課すことを真剣に検討するよう、国際通貨基金
（IMF）に要請することを決めた。米国も IMF もこの案には賛同していない。
European Leaders Push Case for Tobin Tax (Financial Times, December 12-13, 2009, p 4)
ドーハ最新情報：「バナナ戦争」終結でドーハにも機運
Doha Update:
近代において最長の貿易摩擦である「バナナ戦争」が終焉を迎えた。これについて、世界貿易機関（WTO）事
務局長は、ドーハ・ラウンド交渉などあらゆる貿易問題を WTO が解決できることを反映していると自信を見せ
ている。
End of Banana Wars Brings Hope for Doha (Financial Times, December 16, 2009, p 8)
焦点１：ポスト「京都議定書」最新： COP15
Issues in Focus: Kyoto Protocol Update: COP15
デンマークのコペンハーゲンにて開催された国連気候変動枠組条約第 15 回締約国会議（UNFCCC/
COP15）では、温室効果ガス排出に関する取り決めについて、土壇場になって辛うじて合意を得ることができ
た。「コペンハーゲン協定」と称する同取り決めは、一部の首脳らによってまとめられたため、当事者の多くに
とっては納得できない結果となった。
（続）
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温暖化対策の資金調達 2 論
地球温暖化対策には何兆ドルもかかると予測され、この資金を調達する問題に対し、以下 2 人の専門家が
異なる見解を示している。
低コスト代替エネルギー開発に資金を
Bjorn Lomborg 氏は気候変動対策に懐疑的であり、現在のアプローチでは解決すべき問題よりも費用がか
かってしまうと懸念している。よって、その資金は代わりに実用的な低コスト代替エネルギー開発に充てるべ
きであると主張する。
Beyond Copenhagen (By Bjørn Lomborg, Time Magazine, December 14, 2009, p 40)
先進国はUNFCCC採択時の公約を果すべき
Jeffrey Sachs 氏は、富裕国が約束した支援を行っていないとし、繰り返し援助責任を追及している。同氏は、
1992 年にブラジルのリオデジャネイロで採択された気候変動枠組条約に従い、開発途上国で発生し得る気
候変動に関する全費用は援助国が負担すべきである、と主張する。
Hold the Rich Nations to their Word (By Jeffrey Sachs, Financial Times, December 16, 2009 p 11)
焦点２：人口と気候変動
Issues in Focus: Population and Climate Change
人口増加に伴う環境への負荷は、環境持続性、資源の消費、地球温暖化に多大な影響を与える。環境問題
の専門家たちはこの話題を避けているが、国連人口基金（UNFPA）は、世界的な人口の増加を抑制すること
で温室効果ガス問題の多くを解決できるとの見解を発表した。
Once a Taboo, Population Growth Joins Climate Debate (Japan Times, December 5, 2009, p 10)
Population: the Elephant in the Room (By John Feeney, BBC News online, February 2, 2009)
In the Family Way (Financial Times, December 10, 2009, p 9)
シンクタンク・雑誌情報： 2009 年最も影響力のあった 100 人
Thoughts from the think tanks and the journals of opinion:
Foreign Policy 誌は、Joseph Stiglitz 氏、Paul Collier 氏など経済開発分野からも幾人かを含む、本年考え方
において最も影響力のあった人物 100 人を発表した。
Top 100 Global Thinkers (Foreign Policy, December 2009)
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http://dakis.fasid.or.jp/
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
(財)国際開発高等教育機構
al
Je o up rn
X re s s
Volume 4, Issue 28, December 23, 2009
S&P, World Bank Launch Emerging Markets Index Based on
Carbon Efficiency
SolveClimate online, December 10, 2009
The World Bank Group’s private sector arm, the
International Finance Corporation (IFC) has launched the first
emerging markets index based on carbon efficiency. Standard &
Poor's (S&P), publisher of financial research and analysis, is a partner in the effort
which is called the S&P/IFC Carbon Efficient Index. The Index was introduced in
Copenhagen on December 10, shortly after the December 8 start of the UNFCCC
COP15 (see issues in focus below).
The IFC’s objective is to mobilize at least $1 billion over the next three years
through private investment for carbon-efficient companies in developing countries
and to encourage competition toward reduced carbon footprints. The principle
underlying creation of a new index is that private sector investors who want to put
their money in emerging markets need a reference to help them find companies that
are environmentally responsible, carbon-efficient and competitive.
The new index is constructed of companies from 21 countries, led by China
with 17% of the companies, Brazil with 15.9%, South Korea with 13.4%, Taiwan with
12.3%, and India with 8.5%. It is most heavily weighted in financial, energy,
information technology and materials.
To provide the amount of money necessary for developing countries to control
their carbon footprint, mitigate effects of climate change, or adapt to the
phenomenon, the private sector must become involved. Private sector involvement
will be contingent on how carbon emissions are priced because that information
determines the decision to invest or to look elsewhere (Economist, December 5,
2009, p 11).
UK freezes Kenya school funding amid fraud allegations
Financial Times, December 15, 2009, p 2
Corruption in Kenya’s education ministry has prompted
the UK to freeze its aid to that sector. Some $1.3 million aid has
apparently been embezzled from a fund for building new classrooms and buying text
books in impoverished parts of the country.
The UK has warned that if the perpetrators are not punished, it will stop its
direct aid to Kenya for primary education.
A Department for International
Development (DFID) spokesman emphasized that the department "does not tolerate
fraud in its programmes."
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Zimbabwe "Blood Diamonds" Dispute Breaks Out At U.N.
Reuters online, December 11, 2009
Industrialized donor countries are highly critical of the United
Nations General Assembly for not dealing harshly enough with Zimbabwe
for its trade in “blood diamonds.” Blood diamond, or conflict diamonds, is the term
used for stones used to finance armed conflict. In 2003 the Kimberly Process
certification scheme was established to prevent this practice.
A report on conflict stones to the UN Secretary General by Namibia, which
chairs the Kimberly Process, found that there were "credible indications of significant
non-compliance with the minimum requirements of the [Process] by Zimbabwe."
Although the General Assembly adopted a resolution warning against "trade in
conflict diamonds, it did not specifically include mention of Zimbabwe’s dealings.
Zimbabwe was one of the resolution's co-sponsors.
European leaders push case for Tobin tax
Financial Times, December 12-13, 2009, p 4
Following a 2-day summit meeting, European governments have
decided to urge the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to seriously
consider imposing a global tax on financial transaction. Such a tax is called a “Tobin
tax,” after Nobel Laureate in economics James Tobin who first suggested it in 1978
to discourage speculation. Although considered and discarded over the years, it is
currently seen as a good way to raise a lot of money painlessly.
Gordon Brown, UK Prime Minister, and Nicholas Sarkozy, French President,
think that the revenues raised could be used to help developing countries deal with
climate change; although British officials later clarified that the main purpose of a
financial transactions tax would be to protect ordinary people against a future
banking crisis.
Despite the increasing interest by Mr. Brown and Mr. Sarkozy in this method,
neither the United States nor the IMF supports it. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF
managing director, has said that it is “a very old idea that is not possible today.”
The EU Summit Communiqué is available at
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=DOC/09/6&format=HTML
&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
End of banana wars brings hope for Doha
Financial Times, December 16, 2009, p 8
The longest-running trade dispute in the modern era has ended. The “banana
wars,” which pre-dates the formation of the World Trade Organization (WTO), was a
disagreement between the US and Europe over duties on banana imports from
Africa/Caribbean/Pacific (ACP) countries and Latin America. Pascal Lamy, WTO
director-general, interprets this settlement as evidence that there is no trade issue
beyond the capacity of WTO members to resolve; not even the Doha Round.
Information on the dispute and its resolution is available at
http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres09_e/pr591_e.htm
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issues in focus: focus on
COP15 in Copenhagen:
At the very last moment, the UNFCCC COP15 in Copenhagen
managed to produce a modest agreement on greenhouse gas
emissions. The agreement is so minimal, however, that rather than
approving it, the 193 participants agreed to "take note" of it (Wall Street
Journal online, December 19, 2009).
The agreement, called the Copenhagen Accord, reportedly was arranged
among the United States, China, Brazil, India and South Africa after US President
Barack Obama broke protocol by entering a meeting of the emerging economy
leaders uninvited, saying that he did not want them to negotiate in secret (New York
Times online, December 18, 2009). The poor developing countries and the wealthier
industrialized ones basically were sidelined, leaving a number of officials from those
governments unsure whether anything had been accomplished or angry that it had
been done without them (Financial Times, online, December 19, 2009).
Dissatisfied observers immediately noted that in the Copenhagen Accord
"[t]here are no targets for carbon cuts and no agreement on a legally binding treaty"
(BBC News online, December 19, 2009). Mr. Obama’s reply to this is that "Kyoto
was legally binding, and everyone still fell short anyway" (Washington Post online,
December 18, 2009). He believes that global warming is a scientific issue, not a
political one, and that the science will have to drive the politics.
Thus the substance of the Copenhagen Accord is simply an official
recognition of the scientific case for limiting the global rise in temperatures to 2oC.
Emitters are asked to list their national actions and commitments (Washington Post
online, December 18, 2009) but are not bound to them (Guardian online, December
18, 2009). The major issue of China’s refusal to accept international verification of
its emissions curbs was dealt with by a compromise that calls for “international
consultation and analysis.” The weak, almost cosmetic, agreement eliminated all
references to a 1.5oC limit on warming, bitterly disappointing the poor and vulnerable
countries; and also eliminated an earlier goal of reducing emissions by 80% by 2050
(Financial Times online, December 19, 2009).
The COP15 talks have been extremely tense and often seemed
on the brink of collapse. Considering the deep divisions among interests,
the fact that any deal at all was achieved surprised many observers.
Mexico, which will host the COP16 in 2010, said it would build on the
Copenhagen Accord to broker a “legally binding instrument” (Financial Times online,
December 18, 2009). Everyone seems to acknowledge that the Copenhagen
Accord is only a start -- a framework -- and that an operational agreement must still
be worked out. The hope is that this will happen in Mexico City in 2010 (or perhaps
at COP17 in South Africa in 2011).
Information is available at http://unfccc.int/2860.php or http://en.cop15.dk/
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Tackling the global warming phenomenon is expected to cost trillions of dollars
(Japan Times, December 1, 2009, p 8). Who will finance this
amount and how are major obstacles to international agreement.
two
Two observers have different views on the financing issue.
views
Beyond Copenhagen
By Bjørn Lomborg, Time Magazine, December 14, 2009, p 40
Bjørn Lomborg is a prominent global warming skeptic, or in his
own words, a “skeptical environmentalist” (Newsweek, December 14,
2009, p 33). He is founder of the Copenhagen Consensus, a forum for prioritizing
world problems and suggesting solutions (JX 3:5 May 28, 2008). The most recent
Copenhagen Consensus “quadrennial exercise” put global warming issues low on a
list of 30 global challenges.
But Mr. Lomborg is less a global warming skeptic than a critic of the way it
has been addressed, starting with the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro which
created the UNFCCC. He denigrates the prevailing approach as the “Rio-KyotoCopenhagen road to nowhere.” The main problem, in his view, is that it seeks a
solution that is more expensive than the problem. In terms of lost growth,
implementation of the Kyoto Protocol would cost approximately $180 billion annually.
For half that amount, research and development can be increased 50-fold, to create
practicable low cost energy alternatives. Instead of “empty agreements and moral
posturing,” that is what should be done.
Mr. Lomborg’s article is available at
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1929071_1929070_194
5639,00.html
Hold the rich nations to their word
By Jeffrey Sachs, Financial Times, December 16, 2009 p 11
Jeffrey Sachs, head of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, is
#39 on the Foreign Policy list of the top 100 thinkers (see thoughts from the think
tanks and the journals of opinion below), selected because he is “the global poor's
most persistent advocate among the global elite.” As the Special Adviser to the
United Nations Secretary-General on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),
Mr. Sachs consistently and persistently nags wealthy donor countries to provide
what they have promised (JX 3:6 June 4, 2008).
This is also his message with regard to climate change financing. Although
rich nations might want to honor only their most minimal commitments, Mr. Sachs
cites the original UNFCCC Rio agreement of 1992 to point out that they are obligated
to “provide new and additional financial resources to meet the agreed full costs
incurred by developing country Parties.”
An agreement in Copenhagen is a chance to fix the current “broken system”
that permits wealthy countries to shirk their promises to the non-wealthy.
Mr. Sachs’ article is available at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e361fa90-e9e2-11deae43-00144feab49a.html
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issue in focus: focus on
population and climate change
Once a taboo, population growth joins climate debate
Japan Times, December 5, 2009, p 10
Population: the elephant in the room
By John Feeney, BBC News online, February 2, 2009
In the family way
Financial Times, December 10, 2009, p 9
Population pressure on the environment has been characterized by
environmental commentator John Feeney (BBC News online, February 2, 2009) as
“the elephant in the room” of environmentalism*. The “demographic transition,” by
which fertility levels and population increases decline with economic growth, is
showing signs of failing. Some African and middle-eastern countries do not reflect
the pattern expected by demographers, and in some industrialized western countries
there is a definite uptick in births.
This has enormous implications for social stability; and also for environmental
sustainability, resource consumption and global warming. Environmentalists do not
like to approach this topic (the elephant in the room); it is delicate and fraught with
cultural complexities. But the demands of population for food, water, goods and
energy are degrading the environment in ways which may be irreparable. According
to Mr. Feeny, “we have overshot the Earth's carrying capacity.”
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has recently brought this issue
out of the shadows, stating that braking the global rise in population will be a major
contribution to solving the greenhouse gas problem. The Earth’s population is now
projected to reach 9 billion by 2050; if it were to increase to only 8 billion, the amount
of carbon released would be 1 billion-2 billion tons less. This means not only that
there would be less greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, but also that there would be
more time to create the innovative technologies for a longer-term, more permanent
arrangement to forestall a changing climate.
A Financial Times analysis notes that after a high level of interest some years
ago, family planning was de-emphasized due to over-confidence and competition
from more urgent issue, compounded by some intense opposition. This is now being
reversed. The United States has lifted its “gag rule” on aid to family planning efforts
and the World Bank, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and
Australia’s AusAid are strengthening their programs.
Mr. Feeny goes even further, he say that “[s]olutions do not spring from
silence. We must bring population back to the centre of public discussion.”
*"Elephant in the room" is an expression referring to a real and obvious truth which is being deliberately ignored
or unaddressed by people who pretend that it is not there.
The BBC News item is available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sci/tech/7865332.stm
The UNFPA report Population Dynamics and Climate Change, is available at
http://unfpa.org/public/site/global/lang/en/pid/4500
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thoughts from the think tanks
and the journals of opinion:
Top 100 Global Thinkers
Foreign Policy, December 2009
“They had the big ideas that shaped our world in
2009.” So begins Foreign Policy Magazine’s presentation of its choices
for the 100 most influential thinkers of the past year. This is a
magazine that likes to compile lists and rankings. It was instrumental in
the creation of the Commitment to Development Index (CDI) in 2003, among others,
and the December 2009 issue also offers “The Top 10 Stories You Missed in 2009.”
The selection of influential thinkers reflects topical urgencies; but it also
includes individuals whose impact has been noteworthy and continuous over time.
The first three are as follows:
1. Ben Bernanke, United States Federal Reserve Chairman: “for staving off a
new great depression”
2. Barack Obama, President of the United States: “for reimagining America’s
role in the world”
3. Zahra Rahnavard, wife of Iran’s opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi: “for
being the brains behind Iran's Green Revolution and the campaign of her
husband”
There are a number of people who are on the list for their contributions in
matters related directly and/or closely to economic development. These include the
following: Economists Larry Summers (#14), Joseph Stiglitz (#25), Paul Krugman
(#29), Nicholas Stern (#35), Paul Collier (#36), Jeffrey Sachs and William Easterly
(both #39), Esther Duflo (#41), Amartya Sen (#58), and George Ayittey (#76).
Other people with development impact on the list include the following:
Microsoft founder Bill Gates (#12), former UN Secretary General Kofi Anan (#30);
World Bank President Robert Zoellick and International Monetary Fund Managing
Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, jointly (#33); financier George Soros (#38) and
Grameen Bank founder Mohammed Yunus (#46).
The full list is available at
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/30/the_fp_top_100_global_thinkers
J
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will take a short break. Issue 4:29 will appear on January 13, 2010
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