JX 3:5 (May 28, 2008)

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Volume 3 ＃5, May 28, 2008
Headlines
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Journal Express は、通常 1-2 ページの Headlines とこれに続く本文との 2 部構成になっています。
Headlines 頁の各記事から或いは pdf 機能「しおり」の項目から本文へ直接リンクします。
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FAO、食糧危機打開にODAの対農業比増を主張
国連食糧農業機関（FAO）の Diouf 事務局長は、昨今の食糧危機の打開に向け、G8 諸国に対しより大きな
援助のシェアを農業に向けるよう呼びかけている。ODA 全体に占める農業の割合は 1980 年の 17%から
2005 年には 3%に縮小しており、特にアフリカにおける食糧需要が深刻である。
UN Urges Aid Shift to Help Tackle Food Crisis (Financial Times, May 17-18, 2008, p 3)
英環境基金に途上国から批判
貧困国を対象とした気候変動適応資金の拠出取り組みに関し、英国が途上国から厳しく批判を浴びている。
昨年 11 月に発表された Environmental Transformation Fund は新たな資金供与ではなく、主として譲許的融
資の形で支払われ、世界銀行がこれを管理運営している。
UK’s Climate Aid Plans Undermine Global Deal (Guardian online, May 20, 2008)
UK Demands Repayment of Climate Aid to Poor Nations (Guardian online, May 17, 2008)
インドの小規模農家救済措置が裏目に
インド政府による小自作農家向け債務免除プログラムは、いくつかの大規模農家がこれに便乗して貸付金返
済を滞納していることから国有銀行の債務不履行が急増し、当初意図された成果を挙げていない。
Indian Farm Debt Waiver Plan Backfires (Financial Times, May 21, 2008, p 2)
会議情報：
Meetings and Conferences:
第4回アフリカ開発会議 in 横浜
アフリカ開発に係る政策フォーラムシリーズ第 4 回のアフリカ開発会議（TICAD IV）が横浜で開催されている。
これにあわせ、日本政府はアフリカ支援および日本とアフリカの関係強化のための数々の政策やプログラム
を打ち出している。
TICAD IV (4th Tokyo International Conference on African Development)
(Yokohama, May 28-30, 2008)
開発の模範国に関する会合
一部の国々が開発において他国の模範になりうるという仮説が、今回の国連大学世界開発経済研究所
（UNU/WIDER）での会合において検証される。
Conference on Country Role Models for Development Success
(UNU/WIDER, Helsinki, Finland, June 13-14, 2008)
シンクタンク・雑誌情報： 2008 年コペンハーゲン・コンセンサス
Thoughts from the think tanks and the journals of opinion:
4 年に 1 度、世界における諸問題に優先順位を付け、その解決策を提案する、コペンハーゲン・コンセンサス
が、2 度目の事業活動を実施する。そこでは、意義ある目的のために 750 億ドルが与えられるというシナリオ
のもと、その資金がいかに使われるべきかが討議される。8 名の著名な経済学者が資金運用の審査を行う
ため、3 人 1 組のチームはポジションペーパーを発表する。
Copenhagen Consensus 2008 (Copenhagen, Denmark May 25-30, 2008)
（続）
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出版情報：
Publications and Reports:
スペンス委員会最終報告
Michael Spence 氏が長を務める Spence Commission on Growth and Development（成長と開発に関する委
員会）は、2 年の準備期間を経て、一部の国がいかにして長期・持続的な経済成長を達成したかについての
報告書を発表した。本委員会の任務は、政府介入を最小限に食い止め、市場への依存を強化することに重
点を置いた、今や時代遅れの「ワシントン・コンセンサス」を改訂、もしくはその代替を追求することにあった。
The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development
(The Spence Commission on Growth and Development, May 21, 2008)
破綻国家再建への草の根手法
この本の著者は、自らのアフガニスタンでの経験に基づき、他の似通った状況にも適用できる国家建設のた
めの草の根的手法を考案した。
Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World
(By Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart, May 2008)
ドーハ最新情報：山頂は見え…隠れ？
Doha Update:
世界貿易機関（WTO）ドーハー・ラウンドの農業交渉議長の演説は、今や締結は見えているという楽観的なも
のであった。
WTO Says Trade Deal in Sight Despite Farmers’ Reservations (Japan Times, May 22, 2008, p 11)
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http://dakis.fasid.or.jp/
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development
(財)国際開発高等教育機構
al
Je o up rn
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Volume 3, Issue #5, May 28, 2008
UN urges aid shift to help tackle food crisis
Financial Times, May 17-18, 2008, p 3
To defuse the current food crisis, the G8 countries should
direct more of their aid toward agriculture. This request came from
Jacques Diouf, director general of the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) who added that Japan, as 2008 G8 Chair, should take the
initiative in reversing a decline in the share of ODA allocated to agriculture. The
share has declined from 17% in 1980 to only 3% in 2005. Africa’s needs are
particularly acute, with just 4% of the arable land under irrigation compared with 38%
in Asia. Africa is also greatly in need of other agriculture related infrastructure, such
as roads and storage facilities.
Mr. Diouf bemoaned the fact that natural disasters -- floods, cyclones,
droughts -- have been rife at a time when cereal crops are at their lowest levels in 30
years. Concern at this aspect of the food problem was echoed by Ngozi OkonjoIweala, World Bank managing director from Nigeria, who said in a essay in Time
Magazine, (May 19, 2008, p 54) that “[t]he global food crisis couldn’t have come at a
worse time for Africa.” The situation risks stalling the progress of African economies
that finally are expanding along with the broader global economy -- at a rate of 5.4%
over the past three years. Their performance has been due, not to resource
exploitation, but to reform and effective governance.
Unfortunately, this progress is fragile and now under grave threat from the
rising food prices that leave people with less and less disposable income for other
priorities. Ms. Okonjo-Iweala urged the wealthier countries to relax their protectionist
policies, help African farmers obtain improved seeds and affordable fertilizers, and
make it possible for them to meet the current challenge.
In the view of the Economist (May 10, 2008, pp 67-68), the wealthy countries’
response has thus far “mostly been muddled.” The poor countries, whether food
importers or exporters, are trying to cope in various ways. The United Nations has
set up a high level task force, headed by John Holmes, Under-Secretary General for
the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) to promote a
unified response to the food/price problem, particularly within the UN system which
has three food-based organizations: FAO, the International Fund for Agricultural
Development (IFAD) and the World Food Programme (WFP). The task force will
work to create a prioritized plan of action and coordinate its implementation.
Information on the UN Secretary General’s High Level Task Force on the Food Crisis
is available at: http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/
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UK’s climate aid plans undermine global deal
Guardian online, May 20, 2008
UK demands repayment of climate aid to poor nations
Guardian online, May 17, 2008
The UK is being very sharply criticized by developing countries for its
approach to climate change adaptation funding for poorer countries. The £800
million Britain will provide for the Environmental Transformation Fund announced by
Prime Minister Gordon Brown in November 2007 will not be new money; it will be
disbursed mainly in the form of concessional loans that must be
repaid with interest; and it will be administered by the World Bank.
Development NGOs and developing countries’ spokespeople
are dismayed that the adaptation funds will come out of existing
allocations and will not be grant aid. Their position is that poor
countries should not have to borrow money to deal with this serious
problem which was not of their making nor should other ODA flows be reduced for
this purpose.
With regard to the World Bank role, developing countries suspect the Bank of
trying to “hijack” millions, billions, or even trillions of dollars in future climate change
aid that more properly should be handled by the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (refer to JX 3:1 4/16/08). The G77,
which has considerable influence in the United Nations context where it is the largest
block of countries, does not want control over the climate change issue and the
money associated with to be shifted from a UN agency to the World Bank where
developing countries have much less clout.
The UK is being accused by Bernaditas Muller, a senior G77 diplomat, of
undermining the UNFCCC, firstly by channeling UK money through the World Bank
and secondly by encouraging other G8 countries to do so as well. At the G8 summit
in Hokkaido, the UK hopes to attract £1.5 billion from the other G8 countries for the
Environmental Transformation Fund.
Indian farm debt waiver plan backfires
Financial Times, May 21, 2008, p 2
A program by the government of India (GoI) to cancel entirely
the debt held by the country’s small-holder farmers has apparently not
worked out as intended (refer to JX 2:42 3/12/08). Due perhaps to
misunderstanding, after the measure was announced state-owned banks have been
experiencing a sharp rise in defaults by rural borrowers.
The plan was intended to help only the very small and marginal farmers.
What has transpired seems to be that owners of farms too large to be included in the
scheme took advantage of it anyway and simply stopped paying on their loans. This
has increased the non-performing loan burden of the banks. It has also created a
problematic situation whereby those who do not repay their loans are benefitting,
while those who do pay are not.
The debt waiver was the most popular part of a larger populist package widely
believed designed to strengthen the governing party’s position ahead of elections set
for May 2009. Despite its problems, GoI plans to expand it by nearly 20%.
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Meetings and Conferences
TICAD IV (4th Tokyo International
Conference on African Development)
Yokohama, May 28-30, 2008
The 4th in a series of policy forums on Africa’s development
which Japan convenes at five year intervals is underway in
Yokohama. Four plenary sessions are on the agenda for the first day
of the three day event: ● on TICAD, itself, ● on economic growth,
● on human security and ● on environmental issues. The subsequent two days will
feature breakout meetings on each of these issues, plenary sessions on the
breakouts and plenary sessions on Japan-Africa partnerships. Adoption of the
Yokohama Declaration and the chair’s summary will conclude the conference.
In his address to the attendees – 46 African leaders plus heads of
international organizations -- Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is presenting new
Japanese measures to support development in Africa. These will include the “cool
Earth partnership,” a mechanism to provide $10 billion over five years to manage
climate change (Japan Times, May 19, 2008, p 1). He will also publically announce
his intention, expressed at an Overseas Economic Cooperation Council meeting on
May 20, to double ODA to Africa. This will mean raising the amount of fresh yen
loans and grants from the current ¥100 billion level to ¥200 billion by 2012.
Beyond this, he will promise to encourage increased foreign direct investment
(FDI) by Japanese companies from an annual average of $1.7 billion to
$3.4 billion by the end of 2012.
A large-scale
government/business mission to Africa is planned. The Japan
Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) will establish a new
“African investment facility” to fund development projects
(International Herald Tribune/Asahi Shimbun, May 21, 2008, p 21). In a
pre-TICAD symposium on May 23, the Prime Minister also pledged $569 million,
starting from 2009, to the Global Fund [to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria]
(Japan Times, May 24, 2008, p 3).
Sadako Ogata, head of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA),
has noted in a speech to the National Press Club that the occurrence in the same
year of TICAD and chairmanship of the G8 confers on Japan an important leadership
role in promoting sustainable development in Africa (Japan Times, May 21, 2008, p
2). The government is eager to demonstrate that it is taking initiative in this regard.
It expects to use Japan’s own postwar reconstruction paradigm as a model for
Africa; thus, the increased aid will largely be directed toward infrastructure
construction.
Information on TICAD IV is available at: http://www.ticad.net/ and at:
http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/africa/ticad/ticad4/index.html
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Conference on Country Role Models for Development Success
UNU/WIDER, Helsinki, Finland, June 13-14, 2008
The premise that some countries can serve as “role models
of development” for other countries will be explored at this
conference at the United Nations University/World Institute for
Development Economics Research. While the putative models
may not show success across all dimensions of development, their policies and
institutions function well enough that they can serve as useful examples.
At the conference, individual cases of development success will be examined
to clarify the reasons it has occurred. From this understanding, an attempt will be
made to identify the experiences that might be instructive to less successful
countries and how they might be replicated.
http://www.wider.unu.edu/events/2008-conferences/country-rolemodels/en_GB/country-role-models/
thoughts from the think tanks
and the journals of opinion:
Copenhagen Consensus 2008
Copenhagen, Denmark May 25-30, 2008
The Copenhagen Consensus, a forum for prioritizing
world problems and suggesting solutions, is conducting its 2nd quadrennial
“exercise.” Some 55 people in total, including 5 Nobel laureates, are taking part in
the exercise which starts with the scenario that $75bn is available for worthwhile
causes: where should it go? Position papers are prepared by 3-person teams
headed by prominent economists. The position papers are then presented as
challenges to an expert panel of 8 other prominent economists as input for their
judgments on how to spend the money.
The 2008 expert panel is comprised of Jagdish Bhagwati, François
Bourguignon, Finn Kydland, Robert Mundell, Douglass North, Thomas Schelling,
Vernon Smith and Nancy Stokey.
The position papers deal with the following issues: air pollution, conflicts,
diseases, education, global warming, malnutrition and hunger, sanitation and water,
subsidies and trade barriers, terrorism, and women, and development. Copenhagen
Consensus priorities have often been counter-intuitive. According to reports
(Financial Times May 21, 2008, p 6) many of the challenge papers propose simple
measures that deceptively return benefits worth many times their cost.
The Copenhagen Consensus was conceived and is led by Swedish
economist Bjorn Lomborg. The papers, the notes and the deliberations of the
experts along with their final prioritization will be compiled and published by
Cambridge University Press.
Information on Copenhagen Consensus 2008 is available at:
http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=953
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publications and reports
The Growth Report: Strategies for
Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development
The Spence Commission on Growth and Development, May 21, 2008
“Since 1950, 13 economies have grown at an average
rate of 7 percent a year or more for 25 years or longer.” So
reports the Spence Commission on Growth and Development, which, after two years
of work, has released its explanation of how such long-term, sustained economic
growth was achieved. Growth analysis is important because only economic growth
lifts people out of poverty. In the words of the report: “Nothing else ever has.”
(The 13 are Botswana, Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea,
Malaysia, Malta, Oman, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand; perhaps soon to be joined
by India and Vietnam).
The Spence Commission is chaired by Nobel laureate Michael Spence. It
originated under the World Bank presidency of Paul Wolfowitz to pursue an update,
or replacement, of the outdated Washington Consensus that stresses reduced
government intervention and expanded market reliance. Its report has already been
characterized as “an implicit attack on the ‘Washington consensus’” (BBC news
online, May 21, 2008) for the importance it places on the role of governments.
The Commission’s report is divided into four sections: Part I “Sustained High
Growth in the Postwar Period” reviews the 13 countries which experienced
sustainable post-war growth. Part II “The Policy Ingredients of Growth Strategies”
presents the ingredients of a successful growth strategy. Part III “Growth Challenges
in Specific Country Contexts” describes the issues faced by certain categories of
countries. Part IV “New Global Trends” discusses global challenges that must be
addressed internationally.
While recognizing that each country is different, the commission isolates
several characteristics common to those which have managed to achieve long-term
sustained growth. Foremost among these are successful integration into the global
economy and “capable, credible and committed government.” It also identifies some
of the obstacles which in varying degrees impede growth performance. These
include geographic and demographic constraints, global warming, and changing
global market conditions.
The objective of the Spence Commission was to look at the forces underlying
growth and to clarify why long-term, sustained economic growth occurred where it
did so that countries where it has not occurred can replicate the process. Despite
the title of its report, the Spence Commission does not attempt actually to formulate
a growth strategy. That task, it says, should be undertaken by “a dedicated team of
policy makers and economists, working on a single economy over time.”
Rather it attempts to provide input to those policymakers to help them
design and implement effective strategies.
The report is available at:
http://www.growthcommission.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=vi
ew&id=96&Itemid=169
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Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World
By Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart, May 2008
Ashraf Ghani is an Afghani. Both he and Clare Lockhart were active in
negotiations setting up the post-Taliban Afghan government. They have devised a
grass-roots approach to state-building, and in this book, they apply their framework
to other, comparable situations: Haiti, Kosovo, Lebanon, Liberia, Nepal and
southern Sudan.
As understood here, “failed states” are largely beyond the reach of traditional
aid and development practices. These countries are under the sway of corrupt
leaders, vulnerable to ethnic conflict, and home to the hopelessly impoverished
people known as the “bottom billion” (a term coined by Paul Collier).
Mr. Ghani and Ms. Lockhart’s framework postulates rebuilding the state
apparatus from the ground up, putting control over essential aspects in the
hands of ordinary citizens on the theory that they are highly motivated to
make them work. Rather than using the existing aid bureaucracy, external
support comes through links forged with appropriate knowledge, information
and finance networks.
This book was launched at a discussion event sponsored by Overseas
Development Institute (ODI) in London. It can be ordered from their website:
http://www.odi.org.uk/events/2008/05/failed_states/index.html
WTO says trade deal in sight despite farmers’
reservations
Japan Times, May 22, 2008, p 11
The World Trade Organization (WTO) agriculture chairman, Crawford
Falconer of New Zealand, is using a mountain climbing metaphor to
describe progress in his effort to secure enough agreement among
WTO members to move the Doha Round of global trade talks forward.
He said, “Anybody…can see clearly the summit…We’ve got through
the…cloud layer, we’re getting pretty thin on oxygen but we can finish the job.”
He spoke as revised draft proposals for both agriculture and industrial goods
were issued on May 19. Negotiations are continuing on the key elements, which are
now understood to be the following: ▪the US will cut trade-distorting subsidies; ▪the
EU will cut its protective farm tariffs; and ▪developing countries will open their
markets to manufacturers.
Nonetheless, interested groups in the US and the EU are protesting the draft
provisions, saying that they do not require the larger developing country markets to
open enough. Brazil, one of the larger developing country markets, is saying that
key questions remain unanswered about developed country subsidies and tariffs.
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