Americans Attribute Warm Winter Weather to

M ARC H 14, 2 016
American Attri ute Warm Winter Weather to Climate
Change
Re ecca Riffkin
tor Highlight
63% a winter wa warmer than u ual; 10% a it wa colder
Mo t who a it wa warmer attri ute thi to climate change
In previou two ear , majoritie aid winter wa colder than u ual
WA HINGTON, D.C. -- A majorit of American , 63%, a the weather in their local area thi winter
wa warmer than u ual. When a ked what the think cau ed the e a normal temperature , more
American a the hift wa the re ult of human-cau ed climate change rather than normal
variation . Ju t 10% of American a it wa a colder winter than u ual, and 26% a the weather
wa a out the ame.
American ' xperience of xtreme in Local Weather and the Perceived Cau e
Have temperature in our local area een -- [ROTAT D: colder than u ual thi winter, a out the ame, (or)
warmer than u ual thi winter]? (A ked of tho e who a the weather ha een colder/warmer than u ual:) Do
ou think temperature are colder/warmer mainl due to -- [ROTAT D: human-cau ed climate change (or to)
normal ear-to- ear variation in temperature ]?
2015
2016
%
%
Colder than u ual
51
10
(Due to normal variation in temperature )
31
6
(Due to human-cau ed climate change)
19
4
A out the ame
29
26
Warmer than u ual
18
63
(Due to normal variation in temperature )
8
26
(Due to human-cau ed climate change)
9
34
Winter temperature in our local area
GALLUP, MARC H 2- 6, 20 16
Mo t recentl , American who have aid the 've experienced a normal winter temperature have
een more likel to attri ute tho e change to normal variation than to climate change. The hift thi
ear i likel ecau e a larger, more regionall and politicall diver e group of American i reporting
warmer temperature thi ear.
Majoritie of American of all political identitie a thi winter wa warmer than u ual. However, more
Democrat (76%) than Repu lican (51%) a thi , and Democrat who a it wa warmer are more
than twice a likel a Repu lican to attri ute the ri e in temperature to climate change, a Gallup
ha found in the pa t.
Gallup' annual March nvironment poll ha a ked American ince 2012 to report on weather
condition in their local area . American appear to e rea ona l accurate in their temperature
a e ment . Thi ear and in 2012, majoritie have aid it wa warmer than u ual. Thi ear' poll
wa conducted ju t efore warm, pring-like temperature came earl for much of the U. . a t
Coa t ut a few week after ummer-like temperature in California and much of the outhwe tern
region. l Nino i pro a l one cau e of thi a normal weather.
In 2014 and 2015, American were mo t likel to a the weather wa colder than u ual, an
a
e
ment generall in line with official tati tic .
The highe t proportion of adult a ing it wa warmer than u ual thi winter -- more than even in
10 -- were in the a t and Midwe t, the region mo t likel to experience cold winter . ut even a
majorit of outherner reported warmer-than-normal temperature . American in the We t were the
lea t likel of all four region to a the winter wa warmer than u ual; till, 49% aid thi .
Winter Temperature Compared With Prior Winter , Region
Next, I'd like ou to think a out the weather in our local area thi winter ea on compared to pa t winter . Have
temperature in our local area een -- [ROTAT D: colder than u ual thi winter, a out the ame (or) warmer than
u ual thi winter]?
Colder
a t: 5%
Midwe t: 6%
outh: 11%
We t: 19%
A out the ame
a t: 17%
Midwe t: 21%
outh: 31%
We t: 31%
Warmer
a t: 78%
Midwe t: 72%
outh: 57%
We t: 49%
GALLUP, MARC H 2- 6, 20 16
La t ear, American ' view of their winter weather varied more region. We terner were more
likel to a it wa warmer rather than colder, and their re pon e were the mo t imilar to thi ear' .
In the other region , e peciall the a t, re ident were more likel to a it wa colder than u ual la t
ear. Thi again largel matched the var ing weather pattern found in different part of the countr
la t winter.
ottom Line
cienti t a 2015 wa the warme t ear on record acro the glo e, and temperature increa ed
one of the large t amount found ince record keeping egan in 1880. U. . temperature were
al o high, and that trend appear to have continued thi winter, a l Nino ha affected the weather.
And, while cienti t a climate change i driving glo al temperature up, the a the more recent
change al o reflect a pike in the u ual pattern . till, American were more likel thi ear to
attri ute the extreme weather to climate change rather than normal variation , including l Nino.
Cold weather wa partiall to lame for low U. . gro dome tic product figure in the fir t quarter of
la t ear, ecau e now and cold temperature di courage hopping and traveling and encourage
people to undle up at home, not pending mone . ut in the late 1990 , an l Nino event oo ted
GDP at lea t a mall amount, omething that could happen again thi ear. o the warm weather
American have reported thi winter could e a good ign for the GDP in the fir t quarter, even if it
mean fewer people u ing now hovel and alt for idewalk and drivewa over the pa t few
month .
Hi torical data are availa le in Gallup Anal tic .
urve Method
Re ult for thi Gallup poll are a ed on telephone interview conducted March 2-6, 2016, on the
Gallup U. . Dail urve , with a random ample of 1,019 adult , aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U. .
tate and the Di trict of Colum ia. For re ult a ed on the total ample of national adult , the
margin of ampling error i ±4 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. All reported margin of
ampling error include computed de ign effect for weighting.
ach ample of national adult include a minimum quota of 60% cellphone re pondent and 40%
landline re pondent , with additional minimum quota time zone within region. Landline and
cellular telephone num er are elected u ing random-digit-dial method .
View complete que tion re pon e and trend .
Learn more a out how the Gallup Poll ocial erie work .
R L A
DAT : March 14, 2016
OURC : Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/189920/american -attri ute-warm-winter-weather-climatechange.a px
CONTACT: Gallup World Headquarter , 901 F treet, Wa hington, D.C., 20001, U. .A
+1 202.715.3030
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