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FOREIGN EXCHANGE
CONSENSUS FORECASTS®
%
€€
T-Bill
$
Can$
£
A Digest of
Financial Forecasts
PPP
%
¥
CPI
%
Sfr
Survey Date
February 13, 2017
Every month, Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts surveys more than 250 financial and economic
forecasters for their currency exchange rate projections. The results covering over 90 currencies – together with
reference data and analysis of factors such as inflation, interest rates, balance of payments, government policies
and politics – are rushed to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.
Page
Overview .......................................... 1
Currencies in the Spotlight this Month
United States .......................................... 3
Euro zone ............................................... 4
China ...................................................... 6
Japan ...................................................... 8
United Kingdom .................................... 10
Russia .................................................. 12
Mexico .................................................. 14
Long Term Forecasts – A Special Survey
This month’s special survey (pages 34 and 35) updates our panel’s
long-term currency predictions. The survey covers 36 currencies for
the period between now and the end of 2023.
US Interest Rate Outlook: 2 to 3 Rate Hikes in 2017
Fed Funds Forecasts
(Latest = 0.50 to 0.75%)
End Mar. End Jun. End Sep. End Dec.
2017
2017
2017
2017
Consensus (mean average) 0.672% 0.899% 1.008%
1.239%
Mode (most frequent f’cast) 0.625% 0.875% 0.875% 1.125%
Overview
Major Currencies
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada . 16-17
Chile, China, Colombia .......................... 18
Czech Republic, Denmark, Hong Kong. 19
Hungary, India, Indonesia ..................... 20
Israel, Japan, Malaysia ......................... 21
Mexico, New Zealand, Norway .............. 22
Peru, Philippines, Poland, ..................... 23
Romania, Russia, Singapore ................. 24
South Africa, South Korea, Sweden ...... 25
Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand ............... 26
Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom .......... 27
Expectations that President Donald Trump will deliver on his progrowth pledges – through tax cuts and public spending – are reflected
in high demand for US corporate equities. However, the absence of
policy specifics and recent revelations that he may seek a lower
currency has caused the US dollar (page 3) to lose momentum. In his
second week in office, Trump scrapped the multilateral Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) agreement, set a focus on bilateral trade deals and
threatened to impose a border tax on certain imports into the US. A
key member of his policy team also claimed last week that Germany
(continued on page 2)
Our next issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts will
be available end of the day March 15, 2017.
Additional Currencies
Page
Albania, Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Botswana,
Bulgaria, Costa Rica, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, ............................................................................. 28
Egypt, El Salvador, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Iceland, Iran,
Iraq, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Jordan, .................................................................................................................... 29
Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Laos, Lebanon, Libya, Macedonia, Malawi, Morocco, Myanmar (Burma),
Nicaragua, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, .................................................................................................................. 30
Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tanzania, Tunisia, UAE, Uganda,
Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia .................................................................................................. 31
Hedging Using Forward Rates ........................................................................................................
Cross Rates .......................................................................................................................................
Long Term Forecasts – A Special Survey ......................................................................................
International Corruption Perceptions Index (ICPI) ........................................................................
Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 1351-0983) is published by Consensus Economics Inc.,
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom
Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard
Tel: (44) 20 7491 3211 Fax: (44) 20 7409 2331
32
33
34
36
Editor: Che-Wing Pang
Assistant Editor: Ravi Talwar
Web: www.consensuseconomics.com
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic, photocopying, digitization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc. do not guarantee or provide any warranties or take any
responsibility for the information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
2
FEBRUARY 2017
OVERVIEW
(continued from front page)
benefited unfairly from an undervalued euro, as it undercut US
exports and exploited other countries in the European Union.
Such antagonistic rhectoric may be purely tactical, as Mr.
Trump positions himself to secure concessions from competitors in his renegotiation of global trade agreements. Yet,
whatever the intentions, the apparent policy shift (which will
take time to implement) has created unwanted diplomatic
frictions and political uncertainty, which could have negative
consequences for all concerned. The European Central Bank
quickly rejected allegations that the euro (pages 4-5) was
being artificially held down, as the recovery in the euro zone
remains fragile despite recent improvements in the inflation
outlook and signs of growth momentum in several of its
member countries. How Europe handles its relationship with
the US is of strategic importance, but the next 3-6 months will
be dominated by key elections in the Netherlands, France and
Germany. In addition, the UK (pages 10-11) looks set to trigger
negotiations to leave the European Union by the end of March,
after the Conservative-led government cleared last week a
major parliamentary hurdle to authorise Brexit. Other major
currencies in this month’s spotlight include the Chinese
renminbi (pages 6-7), which has stopped declining, the
Japanese yen (pages 8-9), the Russian rouble (pages 12-13)
and the Mexican peso pages (14 and 15).
Summary: Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts
Currency units per US$ or
Euro, except the UK£, A$
and Euro which are the
reciprocals.
Forecast
% change
Spot Rate
Feb. 13
2017
Consensus Forecasts
End Mar. End May End Feb.
2017
2017
2018
% change
See
Page
Since End
Australian Dollar (US$/A$)
17
Brazilian Real
Canadian Dollar
17
17
5.5
4.2
2.5
1.0
0.6
1.3
2.4
1.4
5.1
4.9
-4.5
1.2
0.764
3.116
1.309
6.878
0.738
3.286
1.345
6.990
0.728
3.338
1.356
7.066
0.708
3.459
1.351
7.259
1.061
67.00
113.9
20.32
58.09
1152
3.683
1.250
1.050
68.27
114.6
21.36
60.38
1189
3.716
1.211
1.047
68.63
115.5
21.55
60.66
1195
3.765
1.206
1.051
69.31
117.2
21.69
61.55
1200
3.815
1.197
-7.4
-9.9
-3.1
-5.3
-0.9
-3.3
-2.8
-6.3
-5.6
-4.0
-3.5
-4.2
0.1
2.1
2.0
1.2
0.6
308.4
8.890
4.315
9.472
1.066
311.8
8.909
4.363
9.545
1.067
313.2
8.872
4.374
9.447
1.072
310.4
8.733
4.360
9.248
1.077
-0.6
1.8
-1.0
2.4
-1.0
Dec. 2016
to End
Feb. 2018
Exchange rates vs. US$
Chinese Renminbi
Euro (US$/€)
6
4
Indian Rupee
Japanese Yen
20
8
Mexican Peso
Russian Rouble
14
12
South Korean Won
Turkish Lira
25
27
UK Pound (US$/UK£)
10
Exchange rates vs. Euro
Hungarian Forint
Norwegian Krone
20
22
Polish Zloty
Swedish Krona
23
25
Swiss Franc
26
FEBRUARY 2017
NOTES AND ABBREVIATIONS
❒
GDP
M/S&P
ICPI
PPP
❒
GDP is expressed in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms. GDP and consumer prices are expressed as average
percentage changes over the previous year unless otherwise indicated. Measures of trade, current account and foreign
exchange reserves (which exclude gold) are expresed as nominal amounts in US dollars (end year, billion).
❒
The International Corruption Perceptions Index (ICPI), as calculated by Transparency International, ranks countries
on a scale of “0” to “100” where a “0” equals the highest level of perceived corruption; “100” equals lowest. High levels
of perceived corruption can affect the ability of a nation to attract long-term investment, possibly making it more
dependent on short-term capital to meet its financial obligations. A sudden, sharp reversal in international sentiment
could therefore put such a country under pressure and expose its currency to risks.
❒
Interpolated rates on pages 5-27 are calculated as period average or end period forecasts based on simple
straight-line interpolations from consensus forecasts.
❒
All individual foreign exchange forecasts on pages 5-15 are listed in descending order of their 1 year percent
change estimates. In a few cases, monthly point forecasts are to the nearest end quarter period. Consensus forecasts
are averages of the named forecasters shown plus Other Forecasters.
-
Gross Domestic Product
Moody's and Standard & Poor's sovereign debt ratings
International Corruption Perception Index (details below)
Purchasing Power Parity, see top of page 4
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
q-o-q
y-o-y
e
na
-
quarter-on-quarter
year-on-year
consensus estimate
not available
3
FEBRUARY 2017
UNITED STATES DOLLAR
The US$ is the principal benchmark currency against which the values of other
A More Volatile Climb
currencies (except most Europeans) are measured throughout this publication. (For
cross rates and forecasts against the yen and euro see page 33.) The only exchangetraded index of the US dollar's value is the NYBOT (composition below), which was
originated by the Federal Reserve in the early 1970s. Futures based on its ‘cash’ index
(DXY) are traded on the New York Cotton Exchange. From the direction of trade
statistics (below right) it will be noted that Canada has a greater weight in US trade than
in the NYBOT index, while Mexico is not represented; the principal European countries
have a greater weight in the index than in US trade.
The US$ drifted lower after Donald
Trump was sworn in as the next US president on January 20. His inauguration
speech was nationalistic, striking notes
on protectionism and self interest. Yet
no new details behind his election promises of fiscal stimulus and lighter regulation were put forward. An absense of
clarity regarding his precise policy intentions (and his ability to implement
them) has fuelled global FX speculation,
not least because US$ strength now
seem incompatible with his agenda to
bolster employment and exports. Besides China and Japan, Germany, with
its huge trade surplus with the US, came
under fire last week for the slide in the
euro. The claim from a key adviser to
Trump that Berlin is a currency manipulator is difficult to comprehend as it has
no control over FX policy. Yet it underlines the uncertainties, frustrations and
challenges facing the Trump administration as it tries to reorder US alliances,
raise US competitiveness and take US
trade policy in a new direction. Debtfunded efforts to underpin the economy
do not come without risks, as related
increases in inflation would put upward
pressure on rates and the US$.
US$ INDEX: Monthly (Based on the NYBOT DXY index weights below)
Consensus Forecasts
Actual
Feb. 13
End May 2017
102.8*
US$ Index* 101.0
* Calculated from actual and
weighted consensus currency
forecasts from latest survey.
End Feb. 2018
*
102.8
130
Euro
Japanese ¥
British pound
Canadian $
Swedish krona
Swiss franc
120
110
100
57.6%
13.6%
11.9%
9.1%
4.2%
3.6%
90
80
70
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
US$ INDEX: Daily High, Low, Closing (weights above)
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
98.0
DIRECTION OF TRADE
96.0
94.0
92.0
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$17947bn GDP per Capita: US$55,771
Consensus
Population (mid-2015): 321.8mn
Corruption Index (ICPI) - 74/100 Forecasts
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Real GDP, %
1.7
2.4
2.6
1.6
2.3
2.4
Consumer Prices, %
1.5
1.6
0.1
1.3
2.5
2.3
Current Account, US$bn
-366.4 -392.1 -463.0 -487.2 e
-533.2 -587.6
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.5
Short Term Interest Rates1
0.7
1.3
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
47.6
41.9
39.2
39.4
na
na
1
1
1
3 mth treasury bills (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
US Interest Rates
%
8.0
% of GDP
2015
US$bn
280.0
236.4
116.2
62.5
56.4
753.6
% of
Total
18.6
15.7
7.7
4.2
3.7
50.1
TOTAL:
1505.0
100.0
481.9
295.2
294.7
131.1
124.1
980.9
20.9
12.8
12.8
5.7
5.4
42.5
2308.0
100.0
IMPORTS FROM:
China
Canada
Mexico
Japan
Germany
Other
TOTAL:
US Risk Indicators
(Treasury bill and bond forecasts also on page 4)
3.0
6.0
Long Term Rates 10 Yr Treasury Bonds
4.0
2.0
EXPORTS TO:
Canada
Mexico
China
Japan
United Kingdom
Other
Short-Term
Rates 3m Treasury Bills
End Mar. End Jun. End Sep. End Dec.
2017
2017
2017
2017
(Latest = 0.50 to 0.75%)
Consensus (mean average) 0.672% 0.899% 1.008% 1.239%
Mode (most frequent f’cast) 0.625% 0.875% 0.875% 1.125%
Consensus
Forecasts
-1.0
-3.0
-5.0
0.0
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
Fed Funds Forecasts
FX Reserves (% of GDP)
1.0
-7.0
-9.0
Current Account
Balance
(% of GDP)
Debt Ratings
(M/S&P): Aaa/AA+
Government
Budget Balance
(% of GDP)
-11.0
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
4
FEBRUARY 2017
EURO
US$ per Euro: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
Euro Undervalued
1.70
1.60
1.50
US$/Euro
(synthetic euro prior to Jan. '99)
Average Producer Price Inflation
Euro zone (2006-2015) = 1.57%
US (2006-2015) =
2.27%
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
PPP Estimate
1.00
0.90
0.80
Jan 97
Jan 99
Jan 01
Jan 03
Jan 05
Jan 07
Jan 09
Jan 11
Jan 13
Jan 15
Jan 17
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory asserts that, over the long-term, the trend of
an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the national inflation rates
of the two countries concerned. We have estimated a long-term PPP trend by relating
the average real exchange rate (1996-2015) to indices of producer price inflation in the
US and the euro zone over the same period. Figures for the euro prior to January 1999
are 'synthetic' i.e. they have been calculated using a basket of the eleven original
member currencies. The PPP line represents an approximation of the euro's long-run
value, and a currency may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10%
above or below the PPP estimate. Our latest PPP estimate is US$1.29 per euro.
European Currency Union: The euro replaced individual currencies of the eleven original members in
January 1999. Greece adopted the euro in 2001, followed by Slovenia in 2007, Cyprus and Malta in 2008
and Slovakia in 2009. Estonia joined in 2011; Latvia
in 2014; and Lithuania in January 2015. The fixed
conversion exchange rates of euro member countries are shown on the right.
Central Bank: The European Central Bank (ECB) is
responsible for monetary policy, which is set by a
committee drawn from EMU-members' central banks.
Policy is carried out by a six-member executive board,
currently headed by the Italian ECB president Mr.
Mario Draghi (appointed in November 2011).
(continued on page 5)
%
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Euro:
Euro:
US$:
US$:
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth
12 mth
-0.2%
-0.3%
3 mth (Libor)
0.7%
10 yr (German) 0.4%
1.3%
0.7%
3 mth(T-bill)
2.6%
3.0%
10 yr
Fixed Conversions per Euros
Austrian schilling
13.7603
Belgian/Lux. franc
40.3399
Cypriot pound
0.58527
Deutschemark
1.95583
Estonian Kroon
15.6466
Finnish markka
5.94573
French franc
6.55957
Greek drachma
340.750
Irish punt
0.78756
Italian lira
1936.27
Latvian Lat
0.70280
Lithuanian Litas
3.45280
Maltese lira
0.42930
Netherlands guilder
2.20371
Portuguese escudo
200.482
Slovakian koruna
30.1260
Slovenian tolar
239.640
Spanish peseta
166.386
Euro zone Less US Rate Differentials
Short Term Rate
Differential*
2016 Economic Outturns (y-o-y)
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Long Term Rate
Differential*
-2.0
-3.0
* Euro rates are synthetic prior to January 1999; 3mth Euribor and German 10-year bond yields thereafter.
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
GDP Growth
Consensus
Forecasts
Average % change
2013
0.5
Germany
0.6
France
-1.7
Italy
0.1
Austria
-0.1
Belgium
-0.8
Finland
-3.2
Greece
1.1
Ireland
Netherlands -0.2
-1.1
Portugal
-1.7
Spain
2014
1.6
0.7
0.2
0.6
1.7
-0.6
0.7
8.5
1.4
0.9
1.4
2015
1.7
1.2
0.6
1.0
1.5
0.3
-0.2
26.3
2.0
1.6
3.2
Euro Zone * -0.2
1.2
1.9
2016
1.9
1.1
0.9 e
1.4 e
1.3 e
1.3 e
0.2 e
4.1 e
2.1
1.3 e
3.2
1.7
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
While the euro remains near decade lows
due to slower growth and rate expectations, it drifted higher at the start of 2017
on a stream of positive euro zone indicators. The debt overhang in Greece and
the banking crisis in Italy continues to
promote the perception of sclerosis and
perennial euro zone underperformance.
However, clear signs of optimism have
emerged over the past six months, with
notable increases in 2017 consensus
GDP growth forecasts for Germany,
France, Spain and the Netherlands. The
European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates
unchanged on January 17, having announced in December that it would extend the bond buying program until at
least the end of 2017. German hawks
continue to warn that monetary conditions are too loose for their buoyant
economy, which expanded 1.9% in 2016.
Yet, while immediate deflation risks have
effectively disappeared, ECB governor,
Mario Draghai, insisted last week that
the fragile nature of the regional recovery meant that policy stimulus was likely
to continue. In unusual circumstances,
his office also had to reject US accusations of currency manipulation, while
warning Washington against ill thought
out banking deregulation. These provocative exchanges highlight the breakdown
in transatlantic relations and the risk of
possible trade and political frictions in
2017. The consensus is predicting that
the euro will depreciate 0.9% over the
next twelve months.
Consumer Price Inflation
Average % change
GDP
USA
Euro zone
Germany
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
CPI
USA
Euro zone
Germany
1.1% 1.1%
0.0% -0.1%
0.3% 0.1%
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.3%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.7%
Q1
Consensus
Forecasts
2017
1.4
1.3
0.8
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.7
3.4
2.0
1.5
2.4
2018
1.6
1.4
0.9
1.5
1.6
1.4
2.0
3.0
1.7
1.4
2.1
2013
1.5
0.9
1.2
2.1
1.1
1.5
-0.9
0.5
2.5
0.3
1.4
2014
0.9
0.5
0.2
1.5
0.3
1.0
-1.3
0.2
1.0
-0.3
-0.2
2015
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.9
0.6
-0.2
-1.7
-0.3
0.6
0.5
-0.5
2016
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.9
2.0
0.4
-0.8
0.0
0.3
0.6
-0.2
2017
1.8
1.3
1.1
1.6
1.9
1.2
0.8
0.8
1.3
1.2
2.2
2018
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.3
0.4
0.0
0.2
1.6
1.4
Q2
Q4
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
Q3
Q4
1.1%
0.3%
0.5%
1.8%
0.7%
1.1%
Background Data (2015)
GDP Population GDP per
(US$bn)
(mn)
Capita ($)
3,353
2,419
1,814
374
454
232
195
238
750
221
1,199
80.7
64.4
59.8
8.5
11.3
5.5
11.0
4.7
16.9
10.4
46.1
41,551
37,563
30,333
43,805
40,183
42,176
17,827
50,754
44,351
21,322
25,996
11,538
332.5
34,706
* Forecasts from latest Consensus Forecasts – G-7 & Western Europe euro zone survey.
5
FEBRUARY 2017
EURO
SURVEY DATE SPOT
RATE (Feb. 13, 2017)
THE CONSENSUS
FORECASTS: US$ PER EURO
End Mar. End May End Feb. % change End Feb.
from spot
2017
2017
2018
2019
1 Euro = US$ 1.061
JP Morgan
ING Financial Markets
UBS
Allianz
HSBC
Rabobank
Societe Generale
BoA - Merrill Lynch
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
Commerzbank
ABN Amro
BNP Paribas
IHS Markit
Citigroup
Oxford Economics
Credit Suisse
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Royal Bank of Canada
Deutsche Bank Research
1.040
1.020
na
1.060
1.010
1.064
1.050
1.050
1.000
1.050
1.050
1.040
1.070
1.039
1.064
1.045
1.080
1.050
1.020
1.025
1.056
1.100
1.080
1.060
1.036
1.070
1.050
1.020
0.990
1.037
0.980
1.027
1.060
1.012
1.050
1.025
1.053
1.024
1.010
1.000
1.150
1.130
1.130
1.100
1.100
1.100
1.090
1.060
1.050
1.033
1.030
1.030
1.005
1.005
1.003
0.998
0.993
0.990
0.970
0.950
8.4
6.5
6.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.7
-0.1
-1.0
-2.6
-2.9
-2.9
-5.3
-5.3
-5.4
-5.9
-6.4
-6.7
-8.6
-10.5
na
1.150
1.170
1.120
na
na
1.100
na
na
na
na
na
1.070
1.047
1.031
1.000
0.943
na
na
1.000
Other Forecasters (70)
1.052
1.050
1.053
-0.8
1.074
CONSENSUS (Mean)
1.050
1.047
1.051
-0.9
1.071
-1.0
-0.6
-0.6
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
1.0
1.1
0.7
1.150
1.000
0.025
1.150
0.980
0.031
1.160
0.950
0.051
1.220
0.920
0.065
Feb. Discount/Premium on Spot
Jan. Discount/Premium on Spot
Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot
Feb. High
Feb. Low
Feb. Standard Deviation
US$ per Euro
On the second Monday of every
month we ask our panel to forecast
spot rates for the US$ against the euro
over a range of time horizons. The
Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts received, including Other Forecasters polled whose names do not
appear. The interpolated quarter and
annual average figures shown below
are based on a simple straight line interpolations of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates
US$ per Euro
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
1.078
1.063
1.048
1.048
1.049
1.051
1.055
1.060
1.065
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Yen per Euro
1.055
1.050
1.048
1.049
1.050
1.052
1.057
1.063
1.068
Yen/Euro Cross Rate
124
122
120
US$ per Euro: Daily High, Low, Closing
118
1.15
Yen/Euro
forecasts on
page 33.
116
114
1.13
112
110
Sep 1 16
1.11
1.07
Dec 28 16
Refinancing Rate:
Deposit Rate:
1.05
Feb 6 17
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Current Account Balances
US$bn
Dec 28 16
Consensus
Forecasts
2013 2014
252.8 282.4
Germany
-25.9 -30.1
France
20.5
40.5
Italy
8.4
10.5
Austria
-1.7
-3.6
Belgium
-4.3
-3.1
Finland
-4.9
-3.9
Greece
5.1
4.2
Ireland
78.2
Netherlands 85.5
3.5
0.1
Portugal
20.7
14.9
Spain
2015
280.1
-4.9
29.6
7.0
2.0
-1.0
0.2
29.0
65.0
0.8
16.3
2016
294.3
-29.5
46.6
8.5
1.3
-1.2
-0.2
31.4
64.4
0.7
21.7
2017
277.1
-25.4
41.7
8.3
1.6
-0.5
-0.3
25.5
59.3
0.1
18.2
2018
276.2
-27.4
39.9
8.7
2.0
-0.6
0.0
25.0
60.5
0.0
18.1
Euro Zone * 286.8 320.1
359.0
385.3 e 340.3
336.3
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
0.00%
-0.40%
Trading and Hedging Markets: The euro
is the second largest forex market currency
after the US$. US$/€ futures and options on
futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
1.03
1
Nov 18 16
FX Policy: Independent float. The ECB
aims to keep inflation ‘below but close to
2.0%’ over the medium term.
1.09
1.01
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Feb 6 17
Country Risk Indicators
Current Account Budget Balance
(% of GDP)
(% of GDP) 2
2017 2018
7.8
7.5
-1.0 -1.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
0.3
0.4
-0.2 -0.2
-0.2
0.0
8.3
7.8
7.5
7.4
0.1
0.0
1.4
1.4
2017 2018
0.3
0.3
-3.4 -3.2
-2.6 -2.4
-1.2 -0.9
-2.2 -2.3
-2.3 -1.8
-1.1
0.7
-0.6 -0.6
-0.5 -0.4
-2.0 -2.2
-3.4 -2.7
2.8
2.7
-1.9
-1.7
Sovereign Corruption
Public Debt Debt Rating Perceptions
3
(% of GDP)
Index
(ICPI)
2017
2018 (Moody’s/S&P)
Aaa/AAA
81/100
65.5
62.9
Aa2/AA
69/100
96.7
97.0
Baa2/BBB47/100
133.3 133.2
Aa1/AA+
75/100
81.3
79.3
Aa3/AA
77/100
106.5 106.1
Aa1/AA+
89/100
65.6
66.5
Caa3/B44/100
177.2 170.6
A3/A+
73/100
73.6
72.6
Aaa/AAA
83/100
60.2
58.3
Ba1/BB+
62/100
128.9 127.1
Baa2/BBB+
58/100
100.0
99.7
90.4
89.2
na
na
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Excludes intra euro zone member transactions, ECB defintion.
Calculated by Consensus Economics except Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which are from the European Commission.
2, 3
6
FEBRUARY 2017
CHINESE RENMINBI
RENMINBI per US$: Actual and
Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
CFETS Rmb Basket Weights (%)
US Dollar
Euro
Japanese Yen
Hong Kong Dollar
UK Pound
Australian Dollar
New Zealand Dollar
Singapore Dollar
Swiss Franc
Canadian Dollar
Malaysian Ringgit
Russian Rouble
Thai Baht
South African Rand
South Korean Won
UAE Dirham
Saudi Riyal
Hungarian Forint
Polish Zloty
Danish Krone
Swedish Krona
Norweigian Krone
Turkish Lira
Mexican Peso
5.5
PPP Estimate
6.5
Renminbi (CNY)/US$
7.5
8.5
Average Producer Price Inflation
China (2006-2015) =
-0.80%
US (2006-2015) =
2.27%
9.5
Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) line represents an approximation of the renminbi's
long run value, and a currency may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more
than 10% above or below the PPP estimate.
On February 13, the Chinese renminbi was
8.4% below its recently estimated PPP of
Rmb 6.3 per US$.
Before
26.40
21.39
14.68
6.55
3.86
6.27
0.65
3.82
1.51
2.53
4.67
4.36
3.33
2017
22.40
16.34
11.53
4.28
3.16
4.40
0.44
3.21
1.71
2.15
3.75
2.63
2.91
1.78
10.77
1.87
1.99
0.31
0.66
0.40
0.52
0.27
0.83
1.69
Foreign Exchange Controls
The system of foreign exchange controls is implemented by the State Administration
of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Domestic FX transactions must be carried out via the
China Foreign Exchange Trading System, which links domestic banks and FX centres. In 2010, China permitted the renminbi RMB to be delivered in Hong Kong for
the purpose of international trade and financial settlements, which established the
offshore RMB (CNH). However, a sharp decline in the currency in August 2015 and
during 2016 caused Beijing to become more cautious about reforms and tighten
capital controls. New rules have since been introduced to make it harder to move
money out of China and more expensive to borrow the renminbi in Hong Kong.
These include additional guidance and disclosure requirements for foreign companies trying to remit dividends over a certain threshold to stakeholders abroad. In
addition, restrictions have been placed on the size and nature of overseas corporate
acquisitions and investments by Chinese companies, as well as greater scrutiny
over the personal purchases of US dollars by Chinese citizens.
China GDP Growth and Inflation (Annual and Recent Quarterly Trends)
% change, y-o-y
% change, y-o-y
%
13.0
GDP Growth
11.0
7.6
Consensus
Forecasts
9.0
7.2
7.0
7.0
5.0
6.8
3.0
6.6
1.0
-1.0
GDP Growth (left scale)
Inflation
(right scale)
7.4
6.4
Inflation
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2014
2015
2016
China Current Account and FX Reserves
4000
3400
US$bn
3500
3200
3000
2500
2000
FX Reserves
(IMF definition,
excluding gold)
US$bn
Monthly FX Reserves
(convertible foreign
currency definition)
Consensus 3000
Forecasts
500
2800
2600
Current Account Balance
2400
0
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Some signs of stability have emerged
for the renminbi, after Beijing tightened
capital controls at the end of 2016. Efforts to halt its slide included a further
clamp down on leveraged share purchases and stricter disclosure requirements for overseas transactions. Yet,
while regulatory revisions make it harder
to move money out of the country, the
underlying trend will be difficult to reverse. Growth in China remained resilient throughout 2016, but much reflected
support from state spending, rather than
private consumption and exports. FX
volatility and fear of prolonged currency
weakness have also encouraged companies to repay foreign debts and individuals to use their annual US$50,000
conversion allowance to purchase US
dollars. A loss of confidence in the
renminbi is highlighted in a slump in deposits in the currency in Hong Kong and
its usage for international trade payments. In addition, 2016 saw a surge in
demand for alternative assets like
Bitcoins, which are harder for Beijing to
police. The government attempted last
month to focus attention on the broader
CFETS Rmb index, which does not exhibit the same kind of weakness seen
against the US dollar. Effective policy
communication will be important in 2017
to avoid a repeat of the problems in 2015/
2016, when sudden currency devaluations unnerved investors. Yet the drop in
monthly FX reserves to just below
US$3.0trn in January underlines just how
difficult it is to hold back the tide of capital outflows. More measures may be introduced over the next 3-12 months to
guard against unwanted FX speculation,
amid uncertainty regarding possible US
trade protectionism.
DIRECTION OF TRADE
EXPORTS TO:
USA
Hong Kong
Japan
South Korea
Germany
Other
2015
US$bn
410.8
332.7
135.9
101.4
69.2
1234.0
% of
Total
18.0
14.6
5.9
4.4
3.0
54.0
TOTAL:
2284.0
100.0
174.3
144.9
144.5
142.7
87.5
987.2
10.4
8.6
8.6
8.5
5.2
58.7
1681.0
100.0
IMPORTS FROM:
South Korea
USA
Taiwan
Japan
Germany
Other
1500
1000
Fight Against Capital Outflows
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
2016
2017
TOTAL:
7
FEBRUARY 2017
SURVEY DATE SPOT
CHINESE RENMINBI
FORECAST: RENMINBI (CNY) PER US DOLLAR
RATE (Feb. 13, 2017)
1 US$ = Rmb 6.878
End Mar. End May End Feb. % change End Feb.
from spot
2019
2017
2017
2018
ING Financial Markets
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
Citigroup
Mizuho Research Inst
Bank of China (HK)
JP Morgan
ANZ Bank
Oxford Economics
HSBC
IHS Markit
Nomura Securities
Morgan Stanley
Barclay's Capital
Bank of Nova Scotia
Goldman Sachs
Deutsche Bank Research
Rabobank
Daiwa Capital Markets
6.880
6.950
6.982
6.950
6.950
7.050
6.950
6.980
7.050
6.926
7.130
7.080
7.050
7.000
7.000
6.960
6.900
7.000
6.860
7.025
7.057
6.974
7.000
7.167
6.980
7.061
7.083
7.017
7.200
7.133
7.083
7.130
7.100
7.060
7.000
7.300
6.750
6.800
7.026
7.064
7.100
7.100
7.110
7.146
7.200
7.266
7.310
7.333
7.358
7.370
7.380
7.520
7.750
8.100
1.9
1.1
-2.1
-2.6
-3.1
-3.1
-3.3
-3.7
-4.5
-5.3
-5.9
-6.2
-6.5
-6.7
-6.8
-8.5
-11.3
-15.1
6.500
na
6.815
7.122
7.200
na
na
6.962
na
7.431
na
na
na
7.300
7.600
8.100
na
na
Other Forecasters (13)
6.994
7.063
7.270
-5.4
7.354
CONSENSUS (Mean)
6.990
7.066
7.259
-5.3
7.278
-1.6
-0.3
-0.9
-2.7
-1.7
-1.8
-5.3
-4.3
-3.7
-5.5
-4.5
-5.2
6.880
7.130
0.067
6.860
7.300
0.103
6.750
8.100
0.325
6.500
8.100
0.459
Feb. Discount/Premium on Spot
Jan. Discount/Premium on Spot
Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot
Feb. High
Feb. Low
Feb. Standard Deviation
THE CONSENSUS
On the second Monday of every
month we ask our panel to forecast
spot rates for the Chinese renminbi
(CNY) against the US dollar over a
range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts
received, including Other Forecasters
polled whose names do not appear.
The interpolated quarter and annual
average figures shown below are
based on a simple straight line interpolations of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates
Rmb per US$
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
6.831
6.903
7.044
7.120
7.184
7.245
7.263
7.268
7.273
6.950
6.990
7.087
7.152
7.216
7.261
7.266
7.271
7.275
Consensus Forecasts vs Futures
Futures and Forecasts as of
February 13, 2017
Rmb per US$
6.80
Rmb per US$
6.90
CHINESE RENMINBI per US Dollar: Daily Closing
7.00
6.60
CNY and CNH
6.65
7.10
The renminbi trades at different values inside
and outside China (onshore CNY and offshore
CNH in Hong Kong). CNH has become more
liquid in recent years, but CNY remains restricted as the country's exchange controls limit
the free movement of capital.
6.70
6.75
6.80
6.85
6.90
Onshore rate
(CNY)
6.95
Offshore rate
(CNH)
7.00
7.05
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$10,871bn GDP per Capita: US$7,765
Consensus
Population (mid-2015) :
1.4bn Corruption Index (ICPI) - 40/100 Forecasts
Real GDP, %
Consumer Prices, %
Current Account, US$bn
Rmb/US$, annual avge.
1
Short Term Interest Rates
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
Non Deliverable
Forward
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
7.8
2.6
148.2
6.195
6.0
3821
7.3
2.0
277.4
6.143
5.6
3843
6.9
1.4
330.6
6.225
4.4
3330
6.7
2.0
253.5 e
6.642
4.4
3011
6.5
2.3
240.5
7.062
4.3
na
6.1
2.2
244.7
7.262
4.3
na
One-year base lending rate for working capital (%), end period.
Forecasts approximately for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Futures
7.20
7.30
Consensus
Forecasts
7.40
7.50
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
2017
2018
2019
Currency Unit: The currency is the renminbi
(Rmb), also known as the yuan.
Central Bank: The Peoples Bank of China is
governed by Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan.
Currency Linkages: Technically a managed
float, but with exchange controls on capital transactions and frequent intervention. Two rates
have existed since 2010, after the renminbi was
allowed to be delivered in Hong Kong (CNH).
The onshore rate (CNY) is subject to a limit of
+/-2.0% on daily US$ movements (widened
from +/-1.0% in March 2014). Theoretically, the
offshore rate floats freely and fluctuates within
a tight band. Beijing has indicated that its main
target for the exchange rate is a broad currency basket (CFETS Rmb, previous page)
and not just the US dollar.
Trading Markets and Exchange Controls:
See box on facing page.
Hedging Markets: Non-deliverable forwards
(NDFs) are available for maturities of up to one
year. However, NDFs can only be quoted outside mainland China. Futures traded in Chicago.
Government: The president and leader of the
communist party is Mr. Xi Jinping. The premier
is Mr. Li Keqiang. The Communist Party of China
is the ruling political party, a position guaranteed by the country's consitution.
Debt Ratings: Moody's:
Aa3
Standard & Poor's:
AA© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
8
FEBRUARY 2017
JAPANESE YEN
Turn in Yen Sentiment?
YEN per US$: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
75
85
95
PPP Estimate
Average Producer Price Inflation
Japan (2006-2015) =
0.60%
US (2006-2015) =
2.27%
105
115
Yen/US$
125
135
145
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates asserts that, over the
long term, the trend of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in
the inflation rates of the two countries concerned. In the above chart we have estimated
a long term PPP trend by relating the real average exchange rate (1996-2015) to
indices of producer price inflation in the US and Japan over the same period. The PPP
line above represents an approximation of the yen's long run value, and a currency
may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the
PPP estimate. On February 13, the Japanese yen was UNDERVALUED by 22.9%,
compared with its recently estimated PPP of ¥87.8 per US$.
%
JAPANESE Less US Interest Rate Differentials
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Short-Term Rate
Differential
-2.0
Long-Term Rate
Differential
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
JAPAN GDP Growth and Inflation
%
(year-on-year)
5.0
CPI Inflation
3.0
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
2016 Economic Outturns (y-o-y)
Q1
-5.0
GDP
CPI
Q2
Q3
Real GDP
Growth
Q4
0.4% 0.9% 1.1%
0.0% -0.3% -0.5%
1.6%
0.3%
Consensus
Forecasts
In contrast to its slide in Q4 2016, the
yen appreciated ahead of a key meeting between Prime Minister Abe and US
president Donald Trump in Washington
on February 10. The outlines of a bilateral trade deal were high on the agenda,
alongside currency policy, investment
and geo-political security issues. Negotiations on each will be taken forward at
ministerial level, due to their complexity and the need to bridge certain differences in interest. Yet the positive tone
and gestures of the summit have reassured investors about the strategic alliance, following strains caused by earlier outbursts by Trump about yen manipulation and unfair practices on auto
exports and imports. Yet movements will
continue to be sensitive to US government rhetoric and speculation that Abe
might support coordinated FX actions
to limit US dollar strength (as happened
in the 1985 Plaza Accord). Such actions, though, would be difficult in the
present weak global growth environment, as they could undermine his political base and efforts to revive his lacklustre economy. History also suggests
that it is near impossible to resolve trade
imbalances through currency adjustments alone, as underlined by the persistence of the large US shortfall. The
Bank of Japan – which has kept its deposit rate at minus 0.1% and capped 10
year government bond yields at around
zero – warned last week that the domestic recovery remains under threat from
overseas uncertainties and the lingering shadow of deflation. On balance, the
consensus is predicting that the yen will
appreciate 2.8% to ¥117.2 per US$ by
end February 2018.
DIRECTION OF TRADE
-7.0
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% of GDP
30.0
25.0
JAPAN Risk Indicators
(% of GDP)
FX Reserves
(% of GDP)
20.0
15.0
Current Account
Balance
10.0
Consensus
Forecasts
(% of GDP)
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
Government Budget
Balance (% of GDP)
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
EXPORTS TO:
USA
China
South Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Other
2015
US$bn
126.4
109.2
44.0
36.9
35.0
273.2
% of
Total
20.2
17.5
7.0
5.9
5.6
43.7
TOTAL:
624.8
100.0
IMPORTS FROM:
China
USA
Australia
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
Other
160.6
68.3
34.8
26.8
25.1
332.7
24.8
10.5
5.4
4.1
3.9
51.3
TOTAL:
648.3
100.0
9
FEBRUARY 2017
SURVEY DATE SPOT
RATE (Feb. 13, 2017):
US$1 = ¥ 113.9
JAPANESE YEN
FORECASTS: YEN PER US$
THE CONSENSUS
End Mar. End May End Feb. % change End Feb.
from spot
2017
2017
2018
2019
JP Morgan
Royal Bank of Canada
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
UBS
Credit Suisse
ING Financial Markets
HSBC
Rabobank
Societe Generale
BoA - Merrill Lynch
ABN Amro
Commerzbank
Nomura Securities
Allianz
IHS Markit
Citigroup
Oxford Economics
Deutsche Bank Research
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
BNP Paribas
108.0
120.0
115.0
na
114.0
118.0
120.0
113.0
115.0
118.0
120.0
112.0
113.0
117.0
114.3
117.5
115.5
117.0
118.0
115.0
115.0
105.7
119.0
116.0
113.0
115.1
115.0
123.3
113.0
115.0
122.0
122.0
113.3
115.0
117.0
116.0
120.8
117.3
120.0
119.3
117.6
118.3
99.0
107.0
110.0
110.0
111.9
113.0
115.0
115.0
115.0
117.0
119.0
119.3
120.0
121.0
121.2
123.2
124.0
125.0
125.8
127.0
130.3
15.1
6.4
3.5
3.5
1.8
0.8
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.6
-4.3
-4.6
-5.1
-5.9
-6.0
-7.6
-8.1
-8.9
-9.5
-10.3
-12.6
na
na
na
112.0
112.0
115.0
na
na
115.0
na
na
na
114.0
125.0
126.4
120.2
127.0
110.0
130.0
na
na
Other Forecasters (65)
114.2
115.1
117.2
-2.8
118.0
CONSENSUS (Mean)
-2.8
118.1
114.6
115.5
117.2
Feb. Discount/Premium on Spot
Jan. Discount/Premium on Spot
Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot
-0.6
1.4
4.5
-1.4
0.9
3.9
-2.8
-0.1
2.1
-3.6
-0.3
-0.1
Feb. High
Feb. Low
Feb. Standard Deviation
100.0
120.7
4.6
100.0
125.0
5.2
96.00
130.3
7.0
95.00
135.0
8.2
On the second Monday of every month
we ask our panel to forecast spot rates
for the US$ against the euro over a
range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts
received, including Other Forecasters
polled whose names do not appear. The
interpolated quarter and annual average figures shown below are based on
a simple straight line interpolations of
consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates
Yen per US$
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q 4
2017 Q 1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q 1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Yen per
Euro
109.4
114.1
115.2
116.0
116.5
117.1
117.4
117.6
117.9
116.6
114.6
115.7
116.3
116.8
117.3
117.5
117.7
118.0
Yen/Euro Cross Rate
110
112
Yen per US$
Yen/Euro forecasts
on page 33.
114
JAPANESE YEN per US$: Daily High, Low, Closing
116
98.0
118
120
100.0
122
102.0
124
104.0
126
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
106.0
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
116.0
118.0
120.0
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$4125.5bn GDP per Capita: US$32,587
Consensus
Population (mid-2015):
126.6mn Corruption Index (ICPI) - 72/100 Forecasts
2013
Real GDP, %
Consumer Prices, %
Current Account, US$bn
Yen/US$, annual average
1
Short Term Interest Rates
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
2014
2015
2.0
0.2
0.3
2.8
46.2
38.5
97.46 105.66
0.2
0.2
1203
1200
1.3
0.8
134.9
121.0
0.2
1180
2016
1.0
-0.1
183.9 e
108.6
0.1
1158
2017
2018
1.2
0.7
172.9
115.5
0.0
na
1.0
1.0
166.2
117.5
0.0
na
1
3 mth yen TIBOR (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
1
Currency Unit: The currency is the yen (¥),
which is divided into 100 sen.
Central Bank: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is responsible for setting monetary policy. Its governor is Mr. Haruhiko Kuroda (appointed 2013).
FX Policy: The yen is an independent floating
currency, although the BoJ will intervene in consultation with the Ministry of Finance in periods
of disorderly market conditions or rapid FX
change. The BoJ has an inflation target of 2%.
Trading Markets: The yen is the third largest
forex market currency after the US$ and the
euro, with unrestricted trading in spot and forward markets.
Hedging Markets: ¥/US$ and ¥/euro futures
and options on futures traded on the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange. ¥/US$ and ¥/euro options
are offered by international commercial banks.
Government: The Liberal Democratic Party
of Japan (LDP), led by Mr. Shinzo Abe, retained significant support in the December
2014 snap elections, winning 294 out of the
475 seats. Together with the New Komeito Party
(35 seats), it holds a two thirds super majority
in the lower house. A majority was also secured in the upper house in July 2013.
Debt ratings: Moody’s
A1
Standard & Poor’s:
A+
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
10
FEBRUARY 2017
UNITED KINGDOM POUND
US$ per UK£: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
A Step Closer to Brexit
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
On February 9, Prime Minister Theresa
May secured in the House of Commons
the un-amended approval of the Brexit
bill to allow her to formally trigger Article 50 to leave the European Union.
However, while an important hurdle has
been clear, the vote now needs support
from the House of Lords. If it is backed
by upper chamber of parliament, the
next EU summit on March 9-10 will be
the first real opportunity in which the UK
could notify the EU of its decision to
withdraw. Brexit uncertainty has weighed
on sterling due to its effect on capital
flows, the labour force and investment
expectations. Concerns about a ‘hard
Brexit’ in which the UK relinquishes full
access to the single market, led to a
selloff in sterling at the end of 2016. The
tone of the government has been more
conciliatory in its recent statements on
the nature of its departure from the EU.
However, until more about the Brexit
schedule is known, the currency will remain vulnerable to volatility. On a positive note, the UK economy continues to
outperform. Industrial production rose
4.3% (y-o-y) in January due to a solid
performance in the manufacturing industry. In addition, the preliminary Q4 GDP
release was 0.6% (q-o-q), taking the
2016 annual figure to 2.0%, which is
among the highest of the G7 countries.
The Bank of England raised its GDP
forecast for 2017 to 2.0% in response,
0.6 percentage points higher than in its
November Inflation report. The European
Commission has adopted a less optimistic view and expects 1.5% growth.
In addition, the consensus is predicting
that the UK economy will expand 1.5%
in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018.
Average Producer
Price Inflation
UK (2006-2015) = 2.09%
US (2006-2015) = 2.27%
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03
PPP Estimate
US$/£
Jan 05
Jan 07 Jan 09
Jan 11
Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory asserts that, over the long-term, the trend
of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the national inflation
rates of the two countries concerned. We have estimated a long-term PPP trend by
relating the average exchange rate (1996-2015) to indices of producer price inflation
in the US and UK over the same period. The PPP line above represents an
approximation of the UK£'s long-run value, and a currency may be considered overor under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the PPP estimate. On February
13, the UK£ was UNDERVALUED by 26.9%, compared with its recently estimated
PPP of US$1.71 per UK£.
%
6.0
UK Less US Interest Rate Differentials
Short Term Rate
Differential
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Jan 97
Long Term Rate Differential
Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05
Jan 07 Jan 09
Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
Annual GDP Growth and Inflation
%
(year-on-year)
6.0
Real GDP Growth
CPI Inflation
4.0
2.0
0.0
2016 Quarterly GDP Results
-2.0
-4.0
y-o-y:
q-o-q:
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.8%
0.3%
2.0%
0.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2.2%
0.6%
Consensus
Forecasts
-6.0
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
UK Risk Indicators
% of GDP
(% of GDP)
6.0
4.0
FX Reserves (% of GDP)
DIRECTION OF TRADE
EXPORTS TO:
USA
Germany
Switzerland
China
France
Other
2015
US$bn
66.9
46.4
32.2
27.4
27.2
259.5
% of
Total
14.6
10.1
7.0
6.0
5.9
56.5
TOTAL:
459.7
100.0
IMPORTS FROM:
Germany
China
USA
Netherlands
France
Other
92.6
61.2
57.6
47.2
36.2
331.0
14.8
9.8
9.2
7.5
5.8
52.9
TOTAL:
625.7
100.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-6.0
Current
Account
Balance
-8.0
(% of GDP)
-4.0
-10.0
Budget
Balance
(% of GDP)
Consensus
Forecasts
-12.0
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
11
FEBRUARY 2017
UNITED KINGDOM POUND
FORECASTS: US$ PER UK£
SURVEY DATE SPOT
RATE (Feb. 13, 2017):
THE CONSENSUS
End Mar. End May End Feb. % change End Feb.
from spot
2017
2017
2018
2019
UK£1 = US$1.250
BNP Paribas
ING Financial Markets
Morgan Stanley
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
Societe Generale
JP Morgan
Rabobank
Oxford Economics
ABN Amro
Credit Suisse
Allianz
BoA - Merrill Lynch
Commerzbank
Royal Bank of Canada
Goldman Sachs
UBS
IHS Markit
Citigroup
HSBC
Deutsche Bank Research
1.240
1.170
1.170
1.220
1.230
1.209
1.240
1.247
1.240
1.219
1.200
1.150
1.220
1.150
1.200
na
1.247
1.174
1.180
1.143
1.240
1.250
1.177
1.220
1.230
1.206
1.230
1.250
1.230
1.195
1.200
1.150
1.207
1.150
1.187
1.200
1.224
1.131
1.160
1.115
1.310
1.300
1.273
1.270
1.270
1.250
1.240
1.235
1.220
1.204
1.200
1.200
1.190
1.170
1.147
1.130
1.122
1.103
1.100
1.060
4.8
4.0
1.9
1.6
1.6
0.0
-0.8
-1.2
-2.4
-3.7
-4.0
-4.0
-4.8
-6.4
-8.3
-9.6
-10.2
-11.8
-12.0
-15.2
na
1.350
na
na
1.280
na
na
1.215
na
1.205
1.220
na
na
na
1.207
1.170
1.242
1.147
na
1.180
Other Forecasters (57)
1.215
1.209
1.197
-4.2
1.236
CONSENSUS (Mean)
1.211
1.206
1.197
-4.2
1.232
-3.1
-0.1
-3.5
-3.5
-1.0
-5.0
-4.2
-1.0
-5.4
-1.4
2.0
-1.9
1.280
1.118
0.037
1.290
1.115
0.041
1.330
1.050
0.073
1.400
1.050
0.074
Feb. Discount/Premium on Spot
Jan. Discount/Premium on Spot
Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot
Feb. High
Feb. Low
Feb. Standard Deviation
On the second Monday of every
month we ask our panel to forecast
spot rates for the US$ against the UK£
over a range of time horizons. The
Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts received, including Other Forecasters polled whose names do not
appear. The interpolated quarter and
annual average figures shown below
are based on a simple straight line interpolations of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates
US$ per UK£
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q 4
2017 Q 1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q 1
Q2
Q3
Q4
UK£ per Euro
1.241
1.240
1.207
1.203
1.201
1.198
1.205
1.213
1.222
1.236
1.211
1.205
1.202
1.199
1.200
1.209
1.218
1.227
UK£/Euro Cross Rate
0.82
0.84
US$ per UK£
US$ per UK£: Daily High, Low, Closing
0.86
1.40
0.88
UK£/Euro forecasts
on page 33.
0.90
1.35
0.92
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$2858.5bn GDP per Capita: US$44,181
Consensus
Population (mid-2015): 64.7mn
Corruption Index (ICPI) - 81/100 Forecasts
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Real GDP, %
1.9
3.1
2.2
2.0
1.5
1.3
Consumer Prices, %
2.5
1.5
0.0
0.7
2.6
2.7
Current Account, US$bn
-119.6 -140.0
-123
-133 e
-95
-76
US$/£, annual average
1.564 1.647 1.529 1.353
1.213 1.210
Short Term Interest Rates1
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
69.6
76.4 101.6 106.5
na
na
1
1
3 month interbank rate (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
1
Currency Unit: The currency is known as
Sterling; the monetary unit is the pound (UK£)
which is divided into 100 pence.
Central Bank: Mr. Mark Carney, former head
of the Bank of Canada, was appointed as governor of the Bank of England in July 2013.
Interest rates are set by the bank's Monetary
Policy Committee, with a view to achieving an
inflation
target
set
by
the
government (currently 2.0%).
Currency Linkages: Sterling left the ERM in
September 1992 and now floats independently. The UK has an opt-out from the European Monetary Union (EMU) programme.
Trading Markets: Large and liquid spot and
forward markets.
Hedging Markets: Currency options on futures are available on the Philadelphia Stock
Exchange; futures on the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange.
Government: The Prime Minister is Mrs.
Theresa May. She leads a slim majority Conservative government, with 329 of the 650
seats in the House of Commons. Next parliamentary election due in May 2020.
Brexit: The UK voted in to leave the EU in a
referendum held on June 23, 2016.
Debt Ratings: Moody's:
Aa1
Standard & Poor's: AA
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
12
RUSSIAN ROUBLE
FEBRUARY 2017
ROUBLES per US$: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
Rouble At 18-Month High
The rouble extended its climb that
started in late November 2016 and
headed toward 58 per US$ in early February (see daily chart, next page). A key
driver behind its surge has been expectation that Western sanctions may start
to ease as the newly-appointed US
President, Donald Trump, vowed to reset previously frosty US-Russia relations with his Russian counterpart,
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates asserts that, over the long
Vladimir Putin. At the same time, the
term, the trend of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the
uptrend in the US dollar has stalled, havnational inflation rates of the two countries concerned. In the above chart we have
ing climbed sharply in late 2016. Yet sigestimated a medium term PPP trend by relating the average exchange rate (2006nificant political uncertainty exists and
2015) to indices of producer price inflation in the US and Russia over the same period.
more constructive dialogue between the
The PPP line at right represents an approximation of the rouble's long run value, and
it may be considered over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the
two leaders has thus far not translated
PPP estimate. On February 13, the Russian rouble was UNDERVALUED by more
into broader cooperation and investment
than 18.4%, compared with its recently estimated PPP of Rb47.4 per US$.
opportunities. Support for the rouble
also came from a recovery in the price
%
Russian Interest Rates and Inflation
%
of crude oil, which has exceeded US$55/
(logarithmic scale)
1000
1000 bbl mark in recent months (Brent). Russia has taken this opportunity to purchase US dollars and replenish foreign
One-week
Refinancing Rate (Jan 1997 to Aug 2013)
100
100 exchange reserves lost amid the ecoAuction Rate
nomic downturn, capital flight and FX
(from Sep 2013 )
volatility. The move, initiated by the FiConsumer Price Inflation
nance Ministry, forms part of efforts to
10
10
reduce the exposure of the currency to
sudden fluctuations in commodity
prices. At its monetary policy meeting
Deposit Rate
1
1
on February 2, the central bank kept
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
rates on hold at 10%, even though growth
remains lacklustre and inflation tumbled
Russian Equity Prices and the Real (inflation adjusted)
to 5% (y-o-y) in January. Its hawkish
Index
1995=100
Exchange Rate
tone is partly due to uncertainties in the
external and internal environment, which
2500
40
Real Exchange
have raised currency speculation and
Rate Index*
60
2000 negatively affected capital flows and in(left scale - inverted)
vestment expectations. The rouble is ex80
1500 pected to drop to 61.55 per US$ by end
100
February 2018 (consensus).
0
PPP estimate
10
20
30
40
Average Producer
50
Price Inflation
60
Russia (2006-15) = 10.0%
Roubles/US$
US (2006-15) =
2.27%
70
80
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
1000
120
Russian Stock Market,
MICEX Index (right scale)
140
DIRECTION OF TRADE
500
600
EXPORTS TO:
Netherlands
China
Germany
Italy
Turkey
Other
2015
US$bn
40.8
28.6
25.4
22.3
19.3
203.9
500
TOTAL:
340.3
100.0
400
400
300
300
200
200
IMPORTS FROM:
China
Germany
United States
Belarus
Italy
Other
34.9
20.4
11.6
8.7
8.3
129.5
16.4
9.6
5.4
4.1
3.9
60.7
TOTAL:
213.5
100.0
160
0
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
* An appreciation is recorded as a lower index value.
(US$bn)
Russian Foreign Trade
600
500
% of
Total
12.0
8.4
7.4
6.6
5.7
59.9
Exports, 12-month total
100
0
Imports, 12-month total
100
0
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
13
RUSSIAN ROUBLE
FEBRUARY 2017
SURVEY DATE SPOT
FORECAST: RUSSIAN ROUBLES PER US$
THE CONSENSUS
RATE (Feb. 13, 2017)
End Mar. End May End Feb. % change End Feb.
from spot
2017
2017
2018
2019
On the second Monday of every
month we ask our panel to forecast
spot rates for the Russian rouble
against the US$ over a range of time
horizons. The Consensus is the mean
of all the forecasts received. The interpolated quarter and annual average
figures shown below are based on a
simple straight line interpolation of
consensus forecasts.
1 US$ = Rb 58.09
Rabobank
60.00
60.00
56.00
3.7
na
Credit Suisse
58.53
57.87
57.97
0.2
na
Oxford Economics
60.50
60.23
59.37
-2.2
58.23
UniCredit
61.52
61.84
59.89
-3.0
na
Vienna Institute - WIIW
59.00
59.50
60.00
-3.2
62.00
Citigroup
60.29
60.41
61.96
-6.3
64.37
Raiffeisen Research
63.00
62.33
62.00
-6.3
60.00
JP Morgan
60.50
62.45
62.00
-6.3
na
IHS Markit
60.59
61.02
62.67
-7.3
63.58
Commerzbank
60.00
61.00
65.00
-10.6
68.00
HSBC
57.00
57.00
65.00
-10.6
na
Morgan Stanley
64.00
64.66
67.66
-14.1
na
CONSENSUS (Mean)
60.38
60.66
61.55
-5.6
62.62
Feb. Discount/Premium on Spot
-3.8
-4.2
-5.6
-7.2
Jan. Discount/Premium on Spot
-3.2
-3.3
-3.4
-4.3
Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot
-1.0
-1.4
-0.3
-3.7
Feb. High
57.00
57.00
56.00
58.23
Feb. Low
64.00
64.66
67.66
68.00
Feb. Standard Deviation
1.868
2.064
3.254
3.448
Rb per US$
Interpolated Rates
Rb per US$
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Rb per Euro
60.0
63.01
59.39
60.58
60.91
61.20
61.50
61.77
62.04
62.31
61.04
60.38
60.76
61.05
61.35
61.64
61.91
62.17
62.44
Russian Rouble/Euro
Cross Rate
64.0
Russian Roubles per US$: Daily High, Low, Closing
56.0
68.0
72.0
58.0
76.0
Sep 1 16 Oct 11 16 Nov 18 16 Dec 28 16 Feb 6 17
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$1370.4bn GDP per Capita: US$9550
Consensus
Population (mid-2015): 143.5mn
Corruption Index (ICPI) - 29/100 Forecasts
Real GDP, %
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, %
Current Account, US$bn
Roubles/US$, annual avge.
2013
1.3
6.4
34.8
31.85
5.5
470
2014
0.7
11.4
58.4
37.59
17.0
339
2015
-3.7
12.9
69.0
60.24
11.0
320
2016
-0.6
5.4
28.3
66.89
10.0
314
2017
1.1
4.8
44.9
60.52
9.3
346
1
2018
1.5
4.5
44.6
61.90
7.9
350
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
Central bank refinancing rate (%) in 2011 and 2012; One-week auction rate (%) from 2013.
1
Currency Unit: The official currency is the
rouble (Rb) which is divided into 100 kopecks.
Central Bank: The Central Bank of Russia
was established in 1990. The chairman is Mrs
Elvira Nabiullina who was appointed in June
2013.
Currency Linkages: The rouble is generally
quoted in relation to the US dollar and euro
and both are commonly traded in Russia. It
was pegged to the US dollar prior to the rouble crisis of 1998 but is now effectively allowed to float freely.
Hedging and Trading Markets: Rouble/US$
and rouble/euro futures are traded on the
Moscow Commodities Exchange. Rouble/
US$ futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The central bank may intervene to maintain a stable exchange rate.
Government: A two chamber legislature
comprising the State Duma (lower house)
and the Federation Council (upper house).
The president is Mr. Vladimir Putin and the
prime minister is Mr. Dmitry Medvedev, the
former president. Next elections in 2018
(presidential) and in 2021 (parliamentary).
Exchange Controls: The central bank announced in November 2014 it had abolished
the rouble's floating corridor against a dollareuro basket and that it plans to limit its future
interventions.
Debt Ratings: Moody's:
Ba1
Standard and Poor's: BB+
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
14
MEXICAN PESO
FEBRUARY 2017
MEXICAN PESOS per US$: Actual and Purchasing Power Parity Estimates
6.0
4.0
Fear that the US would build a wall along
the US-Mexican border and re-negotiate
the North American Free Trade Agreement caused the peso to plummet towards the end of 2016 (chart left). A
threat to impose a 20.0% tax on all US
imports from Mexico also stirred negative sentiment. President Enrique Pena
Nieto cancelled a planned trip to Washington in response, highlighting the slide
in relations between the two countries
since the US election of Donald Trump.
Yet, having hit a record low in mid-January, the peso has started to recover in
recent weeks, not least because of a
now perceived undervaluation of local
assets. From an objective standpoint,
the US will not emerge unscathed from
a deepened trade dispute with its southern neighbour, meaning that negative
rhetoric from US president Trump will
probably fail to fully materialise. The slide
in the peso has made Mexican exports
more competitive, which should provide
some insulation for industry against possible tariffs. In addition, the fallout from
US protectionism would hurt US companies with supply chains operating in
Mexican export processing zones
(known as maquilas). Clouds of uncertainty do not bode well for economic stability, as political hostilities could escalate with unforeseen consequences. The
central bank raised rates by 50 basis
points to 6.25% on February 9 as inflation jumped to 1.7% (m-o-m) in January, its highest monthly increase in more
than fifteen years. The surge largely reflected more expensive gasoline at the
pumps as the Mexican government
slashed fuel subsidies as part of deregulation and fiscal reforms.
0.0
DIRECTION OF TRADE
8.0
10.0
PPP Estimate
12.0
14.0
16.0
Average Producer
Price Inflation
Mexico (2006-15) = 4.33%
US (2006-15) =
2.27%
18.0
20.0
Pesos/US$
22.0
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory asserts that, over the long-term, the trend
of an exchange rate is determined by cumulative differences in the inflation rates of
the two countries concerned. In the chart on the right we have estimated a long-term
PPP trend by relating the average exchange rate (2006-2015) to indices of producer
price inflation in the two countries over the same period. The PPP line represents an
approximation of the Mexican peso's long run value, and a currency may be considered
over- or under-valued if it is more than 10% above or below the PPP estimate. On
February 13, the peso was UNDERVALUED by 25.2%, compared with its recently
estimated PPP of Ps15.19/US$.
%
Interest Rates and Inflation
%
18.0
Jan. 2001 to
Jan. 1997
16.0
Present
to Dec. 2000
50.0
Short
Term
Interest
Rates
14.0
(right scale)
(left scale)
28-day CETES
12.0
40.0
10.0
30.0
8.0
6.0
20.0
4.0
10.0
2.0
Consum er Price Inflation
0.0
0.0
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15 Jan 17
60.0
Mexican GDP Growth & Inflation
%
(year-on-year)
8.0
Real GDP Growth
(left scale)
6.0
%
20.0
Consensus
Forecasts 16.0
4.0
2.0
12.0
0.0
8.0
-2.0
-4.0
Peso Recovery From Low
CPI Inflation (right scale)
-6.0
EXPORTS TO:
USA
Canada
China
Brazil
Colombia
Other
2015
US$bn
308.8
10.5
4.9
3.8
3.7
49.1
TOTAL:
308.8
100.0
IMPORTS FROM:
USA
China
Japan
South Korea
Germany
Other
186.8
70.0
17.4
14.6
14.0
92.5
47.3
17.7
4.4
3.7
3.5
23.4
TOTAL:
395.2
100.0
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
(US$bn)
Mexican Current Account and FX Reserves
200
160
% of
Total
81.1
2.8
1.3
1.0
1.0
12.9
FX Reserves
120
Consensus
Forecasts
80
40
0
-40
Current Account Balance
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
15
MEXICAN PESO
FEBRUARY 2017
SURVEY DATE SPOT
RATE (Feb. 13, 2017)
FORECAST: MEXICAN PESOS PER US$
US$1 = Ps 20.32
End Mar.
2017
End May
2017
HSBC
20.80
20.60
20.20
0.6
19.80
Oxford Economics
21.14
21.13
20.69
-1.8
20.11
Rabobank
22.00
23.00
21.00
-3.2
na
IHS Markit
20.48
20.51
21.67
-6.2
19.16
Morgan Stanley
20.90
21.10
21.90
-7.2
na
Bank of Nova Scotia
21.63
21.60
22.39
-9.2
na
BBVA Securities
21.60
21.65
22.46
-9.5
21.51
JP Morgan
21.25
21.84
22.50
-9.7
na
Citigroup
22.55
22.66
22.55
-9.9
22.13
CONSENSUS (Mean)
21.36
21.55
21.69
-6.3
20.51
Feb. Discount/Premium on Spot
-4.9
-5.7
-6.3
-0.9
Jan Discount/Premium on Spot
2.0
2.0
3.4
9.2
Dec. Discount/Premium on Spot
1.5
-0.2
-1.0
2.9
Feb. High
20.48
20.51
20.20
19.16
Feb. Low
22.55
23.00
22.55
22.13
Feb. Standard Deviation
0.643
0.851
0.882
1.237
End Feb. % change
from spot
2018
THE CONSENSUS
End Feb.
2019
On the second Monday of every month
we ask our panel to forecast spot rates
for the Mexican peso against the US$
over a range of time horizons. The Consensus is the mean of all the forecasts
received. The interpolated quarter and
annual average figures shown below
are based on a simple straight line interpolation of consensus forecasts.
Interpolated Rates
Pesos per US$
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
19.83
20.92
21.49
21.59
21.64
21.66
21.44
21.15
20.86
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Pesos per C$
20.60
21.36
21.57
21.61
21.66
21.59
21.30
21.00
20.71
Mexican Peso/C$
Cross Rate
13.5
14.0
14.5
Pesos per US$
15.0
Mexican Pesos per US$: Daily High, Low, Closing
15.5
16.0
17.5
16.5
18.0
17.0
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
Sep 1 16
Oct 11 16
Nov 18 16
Dec 28 16
Feb 6 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$1146.6bn GDP per Capita: US$9,262
Consensus
Population (mid-2015):
123.8mn Corruption Index (ICPI) - 30/100 Forecasts
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1.4
2.3
2.6
1.5 e
1.5
2.1
Real GDP, %
4.0
4.1
2.1
3.4
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec, %
4.9
3.9
-31.0
-26.1
-33.2
-30.3 e
-30.1
-30.8
Current Account, US$bn
12.77 13.28 15.81 18.67
Pesos/US$, annual avge.
21.41 21.28
1
3.2
2.7
3.0
5.7
6.3
7.1
Short Term Interest Rates
168.6 185.2 168.4 168.7
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
173.0 174.2
1
1
28-day CETES (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately
3 and 12 months from survey date.
1
Currency Unit: The Mexican nuevo peso
(Ps) was introduced in January 1993 and was
equal to 1000 old pesos. 1 peso = 100
centavos.
Central Bank: The Banco de Mexico governor, Dr. Agustin Carstens is to step down by
October 2017.
Currency Linkages: Since the December
1994 devaluation, the government has
adopted a floating exchange rate system.
Hedging Markets: Options on Mexican peso
futures available on the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange.
Government: Mr. Enrique Pena Nieto (PRI)
was elected on a six-year term July 2012.
Parliamentary elections in June 2015 restored the Institutional Revolutionary Party
(PRI) a slim majority with its allies in the Green
Party and the smaller New Alliance Party in
the Chamber of Deputies (lower house).
Next elections by July 2018 (presidential and
parliamentary).
Exchange Controls: Controls on exchange
transactions were removed in November
1991.
Debt Ratings : Moody's:
A3
Standard and Poor's: BBB+
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
16
FORECASTERS
FEBRUARY 2017
Forecasts for the currencies shown on the next several pages were provided by the following leading
forecasters:
ABN AMRO
Allianz
ANZ Bank
AXA Investment Managers
BoA - Merrill Lynch
Bank of Nova Scotia
Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
Bank Julius Baer
Bank Vontobel
BNP Paribas
Barclays Capital
BBVA
Capital Economics
Citigroup
Commerzbank
Credit Agricole CIB
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank Research
ECOSA
Erste Bank
Feri EuroRating
Goldman Sachs
HSBC
IHS Markit
ING Financial Markets
JP Morgan
Lloyds Bank
Macquarie Bank
Mizuho Research Institute
Moody's Analytics
Morgan Stanley
Nedbank Economics
Nomura Securities
Oxford Economics
Rabobank
Raiffeisen Research
Rand Merchant Bank
Royal Bank of Canada
Royal Bank of Scotland
Santander
Societe Generale
Standard Chartered
The Vienna Institute - WIIW
UBS
UniCredit
plus more than 200 other forecasters located in 27 countries.
e = consensus estimate based on latest survey, except for FX reserves, which in some cases are latest available monthly data.
MAJOR CURRENCIES
FEBRUARY 2017
ARGENTINIAN PESO
Pesos per US$
Consensus
of 8 F'csts
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15.45
15.83
16.39
16.82
17.29
17.75
18.09
18.40
18.70
15.83
16.23
16.59
17.06
17.53
17.94
18.24
18.55
18.85
15.52
16.23
16.43
17.84
19.05
% Chge
from
Spot
-4.3
-5.5
-13.0
-18.5
Forecast
---- Range ---High
Low
15.90
16.13
16.64
17.24
16.78
16.75
19.00
20.99
Pesos per US$
2.0
2.0
4.0
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 8.25)
4.0
6.0
6.0
8.0
8.0
10.0
10.0
12.0
12.0
14.0
14.0
Pesos/US$
16.0
16.0
18.0
18.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Policy: The Ps1=US$1 peg was abandoned in 2002, in favour of a
managed float and, later, a gradual decline. Devaluation to Ps8.0/
US$ in January 2014. FX controls removed in December 2015.
Outlook: The peso rose above 15.6/US$ last week, lifted partly by
an improvement in investor sentiment linked to a nascent revival in
domestic credit conditions. High inflation remains problematic but
new Finance Minister Nicolas Dujovne has vowed to reduce the
large budget deficit in order to improve prospects for price stability
and attract much-needed foreign direct investment.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$642.2bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): B3/BPopulation (mid-2015): 43.4mn ICPI: 36/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.4 -2.5
2.6 -2.3 e
Real GDP, %
2.9
3.2
10.9 23.9 26.9 39.6 e 21.4 14.4
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec,
-12.1 -8.0 -16.8 -14.8 e -16.7 -17.5
Current Account, US$bn
5.556 8.333 9.091 14.75
Pesos/US$, annual avge.
16.57 18.23
1
1
17.8 19.6 27.6 18.2
18.2 16.9
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 25.0 26.0 20.6 33.6
41.3 43.3
1
30-day peso deposits (%), end period. Forecasts approximately for
3 and 12 months from survey date.
17
MAJOR CURRENCIES
FEBRUARY 2017
Policy: The A$ is free floating. Inflation target of 2% to 3%.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
US$ per A$
See p.33 for cross rates
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from ---- Range ---of 35 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
0.764
0.738
0.728
0.708
0.720
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End 1.1
Average Quarter
0.753
0.724 1.0
2016 Q4
0.753
0.738
2017 Q1
0.731
0.726 0.9
Q2
0.723
0.719
Q3
0.716
0.712 0.8
Q4
0.709
0.709
2018 Q1
0.7
0.710
0.712
Q2
0.713
0.715
Q3
0.6
0.716
0.718 Jan 11
Q4
-3.4
-4.7
-7.4
-5.8
0.770
0.773
0.783
0.800
0.690
0.677
0.637
0.680
US$ per A$
1.1
1.0
US$/A$
0.9
0.8
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 0.74)
0.7
0.6
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
BRAZILIAN REAL
Reals per US$
See p.33 for cross rates
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from ---- Range ---of 9 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
3.116
3.286
3.338
3.459
3.668
-5.2
-6.7
-9.9
-15.1
3.152
3.222
3.050
3.449
Reals per US$
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End 1.0
Average Quarter 1.5
3.296
3.245
2016 Q4
2.0
3.176
3.286
2017 Q1
3.322
3.351 2.5
Q2
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 2.91)
3.371
3.392 3.0
Q3
3.412
3.432
Q4
3.5
3.453
3.477
2018 Q1
Reals /US$
3.503
3.529 4.0
Q2
3.555
3.581 4.5
Q3
3.607
3.633
Q4
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
CANADIAN DOLLAR
C$ per US$
See p.33 for cross rates
% Chge
Consensus from
of 71 F'csts Spot
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.334
1.318
1.352
1.355
1.353
1.350
1.340
1.328
1.316
1.341
1.345
1.356
1.354
1.352
1.347
1.334
1.322
1.310
1.309
1.345
1.356
1.351
1.301
-2.7
-3.5
-3.1
0.5
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan 16 Jan 17
Forecast
---- Range ---High
Low
1.400
1.450
1.450
1.400
C$ per US$
0.90
0.90
1.00
1.00
C$/US$
1.10
1.10
1.20
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 1.18)
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015):US$1225.9bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AAA
Population (mid-2015):
24.0mn ICPI: 79/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.1
2.8
2.4
2.4 e
Real GDP, %
2.5
2.8
2.4
2.5
1.5
1.3
Consumer Prices, %
2.2
2.2
-48.2 -41.8 -58.5 -35.9
Current Account, US$bn
-17.9 -27.2
0.968 0.903 0.753 0.744
US$/A$, annual avge.
0.730 1 0.712 1
2.6
2.8
2.4
1.8
1.8
1.7
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 42.5 44.7 41.0 47.6
1
90-day Dealer bill rate (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months
from survey date.
Policy: Crawling peg was abandoned in 1999 in favour of a floating
exchange rate with inflation targeting. A tax on foreign fixed income
investment (introduced in 2009) was scrapped in June 2013.
Outlook: The real has returned to pre-US presidential election
levels, after a sharp dip in November. President Michel Temer has
warned that a trade dispute between the US and Mexico could
3.500 dampen domestic recovery prospects. However, his pledge to
3.500 continue with economic reforms, including pensions, appears to
3.650 have bode well with investors.
3.850
1.0
1.299
1.280
1.200
1.130
Outlook: The A$ maintained momentum in early February and is
now more than 4.0% above its end-2016 level. Its revival largely
reflects reduced support for its US counterpart, as domestic indicators have been soft. Lacklustre domestic demand has raised fears
of another poor GDP performance in Q4, following its contraction in
Q3. The trade surplus rose to a record high in December as exports
vastly outpaced imports, but inflation remains weak and the Reserve Bank has refrained from rate cuts to aid the recovery.
1.20
1.30
1.30
1.40
1.40
1.50
1.50
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$1802.0bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Ba2/BB
Population (mid-2015):
207.9mn ICPI: 40/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015
3.0
0.1 -3.8
Real GDP, %
5.9
6.4 10.7
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec,
-75 -104
-59
Current Account, US$bn
2.147 2.346 3.277
Reals /US$, annual avge.
Short Term Interest Rates1 10.0 11.8 14.3
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 349.0 354.8 348.9
1
SELIC overnight rate (%), end period. Forecasts
3 and 12 months from survey date.
2016
2017 2018
-3.4 e
0.7
2.4
6.3
4.9
4.7
-24
-27.4 -32.4
3.480
3.319 3.529
1
11
13.8
11.7
9.7
356.8
369.1 378.2
for approximately
Policy: The C$ is freely floating. The US is Canada's largest trading
partner, hence the relationship with the US$ is of particular importance. Medium term inflation target of between 1.0% and 3.0%.
Outlook: The C$ rose to a five month high at the start of February,
as the US$ lost steam, but investors appear jittery about the
economic outlook, partly reflecting differences in trade, immigration
and border tax policies between the US and Canada. Real GDP
(measured by industry) rose 0.4% (m-o-m) in November, from a
contraction of 0.3% in October.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$1552.7bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AAA
Population (mid-2015):
35.9mn ICPI: 82/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015
2.5
2.6
0.9
Real GDP, %
0.9
1.9
1.1
Consumer Prices, %
-59.4 -43.6 -52.9
Current Account, US$bn
1.029 1.106 1.277
C$/US$, annual avge.
0.9
0.9
0.5
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 58.4 62.8 69.1
1
3 month treasury bills (%), end period. Forecasts
3 and 12 months from survey date.
2016
2017 2018
1.3 e
2.0
2.0
1.5
2.0
2.0
-51.8 e -39.3 -33.2
1.325
1.344 1.334
11
1
0.5
0.5
0.6
72.9
na
na
approximately for
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
18
FEBRUARY 2017
MAJOR CURRENCIES
CHILEAN PESO
% Chge
Forecast
from
---- Range --Spot
High
Low
Pesos per US$
Consensus
of 8 F'csts
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
665.5
669.8
2016 Q4
654.4
672.6
2017 Q1
675.7
677.4
Q2
677.8
678.2
Q3
678.6
679.0
Q4
679.1
678.1
2018 Q1
676.0
674.0
Q2
671.9
669.8
Q3
667.7
665.6
Q4
643.3
672.6
677.1
679.5
662.8
-4.4
-5.0
-5.3
-3.0
648.2
650.2
654.0
627.6
698.6
704.2
709.0
700.0
Pesos per US$
440
440
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 530.3)
480
480
520
520
560
560
600
600
640
640
680
680
Pesos/US$
720
720
760
760
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
CHINESE RENMINBI
Renminbi per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
Consensus
of 31 F'csts
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
% Chge
Forecast
from ---- Range ---Spot
High
Low
-1.6
-2.7
-5.3
-5.5
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$240.9bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Aa3/AAPopulation (mid-2015):
17.8mn ICPI: 66/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
4.0
1.9
2.3
1.6 e
2.1
2.7
Real GDP, %
3.0
4.6
4.4
2.7
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec,
3.0
3.0
-10.3 -3.3 -4.8 -4.1 e -4.1 -4.3
Current Account, US$bn
494.6 569.5 652.3 676.3
671.5 673.7
Pesos/US$, annual avge.
1
1
4.5
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.1
3.0
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 39.3 38.9 37.2 38.5 e 39.1 39.1
1
Central bank monetary policy rate (%), end period. Forecasts for
approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Policy: Decade-long peg was dropped in 2005 in favour of a
managed float. A trading band was introduced in 2007, under which
the daily fixing is referenced to the previous day's close. In August
2015 China carried out a large cut to the daily fix.
7.130
7.300
8.100
8.100
5.2
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 6.38)
5.6
6.0
6.4
Rmb/US$
6.8
The daily rmb/US$ trading
band was widened to +/2.0% in March 2014.
7.2
7.6
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$10,871bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa3/AAPopulation (mid-2015):
1.4bn ICPI: 40/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
7.8
7.3
6.9
6.7
Real GDP, %
6.5
6.1
2.6
2.0
1.4
2.0
Consumer Prices, %
2.3
2.2
148.2 277.4 330.6 253.5 e 240.5 244.7
Current Account, US$bn
6.195 6.143 6.225 6.642
Rmb/US$, annual avge.
7.062 7.262
1
1
6.0
5.6
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 3821 3843 3330 3011
1
One-year base lending rate for working capital (%), end period.
Forecasts approximately for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Pesos per US$
Consensus
of 9 F'csts
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
3017
3002
2016 Q4
2930
3022
2017 Q1
3052
3072
Q2
3080
3088
Q3
3097
3105
Q4
3111
3107
2018 Q1
3095
3082
Q2
3070
3057
Q3
3044
3032
Q4
6.880
6.860
6.750
6.500
Renminbi per US$
COLOMBIAN PESO
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Outlook: The peso extended its climb into February, alongside a
revival in the price of copper, even though the central bank cut rates
to 3.25% on January 19. Growth has faltered in recent quarters,
while inflation fell to its lowest level in three years at the end of 2016.
Further monetary easing has not been ruled out, while the government plans to raise infrastructure spending to aid the recovery.
Outlook: See pages 6 and 7.
6.878
6.990
7.066
7.259
7.278
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End 5.2
Average Quarter
6.831
6.950 5.6
2016 Q4
6.903
6.990 6.0
2017 Q1
7.044
7.087
Q2
7.120
7.152 6.4
Q3
7.184
7.216
Q4
6.8
7.245
7.261
2018 Q1
7.263
7.266 7.2
Q2
7.268
7.271
Q3
7.6
7.273
7.275 Jan 11
Q4
Policy: The peso was linked to a fixed basket of currencies until late
1999. It has since been allowed to float, with policy focused on
targeting core inflation (currently set at 3.0% +/-1.0%).
% Chge
from
Spot
2878
3022
3066
3116
3015
-4.7
-6.1
-7.6
-4.5
Policy: Independently floating since 1999. Inflation targeting (set at
between 2.0% and 4.0%) was part of the switch to a more flexible
Forecast
---- Range ---- exchange rate strategy.
High
Low Outlook: The peso surpassed the 2900 per US$ level at the start of
the month, lifted partly by buoyant oil prices. S&P also affirmed
2931 3225 Colombia’s BBB credit rating last month, albeit with a negative
2956 3275 outlook. Progress in tax reforms has been a positive development,
2981 3392 but the twin deficits (budget and current account) remain high, while
2812 3250 exports slowed significantly in 2016.
Pesos per US$
1750
2000
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 2415)
1750
2000
2250
2250
2500
2500
2750
2750
3000
3000
Pesos/US$
3250
3250
3500
3500
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$295.5bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Baa2/BBB
Population (mid-2015):
48.9mn ICPI: 37/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
4.9
4.4
3.1
2.0 e
2.5
3.1
Real GDP, %
1.9
3.7
6.8
5.7
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec,
4.4
3.5
-12.4 -19.6 -18.9 -13.8 e -12.3 -12.0
Current Account, US$bn
1866 1996 2710 3051
Pesos/US$, annual avge.
3039 3080
3.3
4.5
5.8
6.9
6.6
5.9
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 41.2 44.9 44.8 45.1 e 46.5 46.7
1
Monetary policy rate (%), end period.
19
FEBRUARY 2017
MAJOR CURRENCIES
CZECH KORUNA
Policy: Managed float since 1997. Inflation targeting (1% to 3%) was
introduced in 1998. The National Bank has intervened to hold the
koruna below 27.0 per euro since November 2013.
Czk
per
US$
% Chge Forecast
Consensus from --- Range --of 13 F'csts Spot High Low
Korunas per Euro
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
27.02
27.02
26.80
26.22
25.62
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
27.03
27.02
2016 Q4
27.02
27.02
2017 Q1
26.86
26.73
Q2
26.64
26.54
Q3
26.44
26.34
Q4
26.25
26.17
2018 Q1
26.09
26.02
Q2
25.94
25.87
Q3
25.79
25.72
Q4
0.0
0.8
3.1
5.5
26.84
26.10
25.00
24.50
27.26
27.44
27.41
26.50
25.48
25.73
25.59
24.95
23.92
Korunas per Euro
23.5
23.5
24.5
24.5
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 25.9)
25.5
25.5
26.5
26.5
27.5
27.5
Korunas/Euro
28.5
28.5
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
DANISH KRONE
Kroners per Euro
Consensus
of 8 F'csts
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
% Chge Forecast
from --- Range --Spot High
Low
7.436
7.453
7.455
7.458
7.469
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
7.439
7.436
2016 Q4
7.439
7.453
2017 Q1
7.454
7.455
Q2
7.456
7.456
Q3
7.457
7.457
Q4
7.458
7.459
2018 Q1
7.460
7.461
Q2
7.463
7.464
Q3
7.465
7.467
Q4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
7.442
7.450
7.450
7.455
7.460
7.460
7.472
7.506
Dkr
per
US$
7.011
7.096
7.118
7.098
6.973
Kroners per Euro
7.0
7.0
7.2
7.2
Kroners/Euro
7.4
7.4
7.6
7.6
7.8
7.8
8.0
8.0
8.2
PPP Estimate (Latest: 8.11)
8.4
8.4
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
8.2
HONG KONG DOLLAR
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from ---- Range ---of 24 F'csts Spot
High
Low
HK$ per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
7.759
7.768
7.777
7.780
7.782
Interpolated Rates
7.758
7.760
7.774
7.778
7.779
7.780
7.780
7.781
7.781
7.750
7.750
7.750
7.755
7.800
7.830
7.850
7.850
HK$ per US$
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
7.753
7.768
7.777
7.778
7.779
7.780
7.781
7.781
7.782
114
7.73
7.74
peg upper limit
HK$/US$ (left scale)
7.75
112
110
108
7.76
106
7.77
104
7.78
102
7.79
100
98
7.80
96
7.81
7.82
7.83
94
Trade Weighted Index (right scale)
92
90
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Outlook: At its meeting on February 2, the Czech National Bank
held its two-week repo rate at 0.05% and confirmed that it would
continue to hold the koruna below CZK 27.0 per euro. Inflation,
though, accelerated to 2.2% (y-o-y) in January, adding to speculation that constraints on monetary policy will be loosened and the
artificial currency ceiling will be removed in Q2.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$181.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A1/AAPopulation (mid-2015):
10.5mn ICPI: 55/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
-0.5
2.7
4.6
2.4 e
Real GDP, %
2.5
2.6
1.4
0.4
0.3
0.7
Consumer Prices, %
2.0
2.0
-1.2
0.6
1.5
3.5 e
Current Account, US$bn
1.9
1.6
26.74 26.02
Korunas/Euro, annual avge. 25.97 27.49 27.27 27.03
1
1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 53.9 52.4 62.6 83.9
1
3 mth interbank (%), end period. Forecasts approximately
for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Policy: The krone is linked to the euro via ERM-2, moving within
limits of +/-2.25% around its central rate of Dkr7.46038/€
€ . A referendum on euro adoption appears unlikely anytime soon.
Outlook: High demand for local assets continues to keep the krone
in the upper bound of its ERM-2 limit (policy above). Relative
support partly reflects ongoing political risks in the euro zone and
problems in its member countries like Greece. The continuation of
the asset purchase program from the European Central Bank until
the end of 2017 has also encouraged capital inflows.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$295.1bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Aaa/AAA
Population (mid-2015):
5.7mn ICPI: 90/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
0.9
1.7
1.6
1.0 e
Real GDP, %
1.5
1.6
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
Consumer Prices, %
1.1
1.4
26.7 31.4 27.6 20.9 e 19.2 19.7
Current Account, US$bn
Kroners/Euro, annual avge. 7.455 7.435 7.458 7.445
7.451 7.461
-0.2
0.1 -0.2 -0.5
na
na
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 82.4 69.7 60.1 60.3 e
1
3 mth Euro-krone deposits (%), end period.
Policy: Limits of HK$7.75 and HK$7.85 introduced around the
HK$7.80 = US$1 peg in May 2005. Major FX regime changes seem
unlikely until the renminbi (page 18) becomes fully convertible.
Outlook: Retail sales in Hong Kong fell to a 17-year low in 2016, hurt
by a drop in mainland tourist arrivals and strength in the US$, to
which the HK$ is pegged. Weakness in the renminbi has made
products in the city-state more expensive, a trend that may continue
as Hong Kong is obligated to follow US monetary policy under
current exchange rate arrangements (policy above).
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$309.2bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Aa1/AAA
Population (mid-2015):
7.3mn ICPI: 77/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
3.1
2.7
2.4
1.5 e
Real GDP, %
1.6
1.9
4.3
4.5
3.0
2.4 e
Consumer Prices, %
2.0
2.1
1.6
0.3
7.2
7.1 e
Goods & Services, US$bn
7.5 10.0
7.756 7.754 7.752 7.763
HK$/US$, annual avge.
7.772 7.781
1
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.0
1.1
1.5
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 311.0 328.4 358.7 384.9 e
1
3 month interbank rate (%), end period. Forecasts approximately
for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
1
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
20
MAJOR CURRENCIES
FEBRUARY 2017
HUNGARIAN FORINT
Hft
per
US$
% Chge Forecast
Consensus from --- Range --of 12 F'csts Spot High
Low
Forints per Euro
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
309.4
308.9
2016 Q4
309.5
311.8
2017 Q1
312.7
312.9
Q2
312.4
312.0
Q3
311.5
311.0
Q4
310.7
311.0
2018 Q1
312.0
312.9
Q2
313.8
314.8
Q3
315.7
316.6
Q4
INDIAN RUPEE
Rupees per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
308.4
311.8
313.2
310.4
317.9
308.3
309.1
294.0
306.2
290.8
296.9
299.0
295.4
296.8
320.0
316.7
325.0
330.0
Forints per Euro
255
255
265
265
275
275
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 300)
285
285
295
295
305
305
315
315
Forints/Euro
325
325
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from ---- Range ---of 21 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
67.39
67.87
2016 Q4
67.71
68.27
2017 Q1
68.52
68.70
Q2
68.82
68.93
Q3
69.04
69.16
Q4
69.26
69.31
2018 Q1
69.31
69.31
Q2
69.31
69.30
Q3
69.30
69.30
Q4
-1.1
-1.5
-0.6
-3.0
67.00
68.27
68.63
69.31
69.30
-1.9
-2.4
-3.3
-3.3
66.80
66.50
67.75
67.00
70.20
70.66
72.33
72.70
Rupees per US$
44.0
44.0
48.0
48.0
52.0
52.0
56.0
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 63.2)
60.0
64.0
56.0
60.0
64.0
68.0
68.0
Rupees/US$
72.0
72.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
INDONESIAN RUPIAH
Rupiah per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13246
13373
13545
13608
13661
13707
13660
13586
13511
13473
13498
13582
13635
13688
13698
13623
13548
13473
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from ---- Range ---of 27 F'csts Spot
High
Low
13327
13498
13564
13723
13423
-1.3
-1.8
-2.9
-0.7
13200
13000
13200
12500
13800
14112
14532
13990
Rupiah per US$
8000
8000
10000
10000
Rupiah/US$
12000
12000
14000
14000
16000
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 18267)
18000
16000
18000
20000
20000
Jan 11Jan 12 Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15 Jan 16Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Policy: In February 2008, the horizontal ERM-2 like trading range
arrangement was abandoned in favour of a independent float.
Medium term inflation target of 3.0%.
Outlook: The forint has remained relatively stable, despite news
of a loss of momentum in the Hungarian economy. Growth fell to
1.5% (y-o-y) in Q4, from 2.0% in Q3, on a seasonally and calendar
adjusted basis, but should reaccelerate as demand is lifted by
wage increases and a revival in EU structural investment. The
National Bank held rates at 0.9% on January 24.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$120.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa3/BBBPopulation (mid-2015):
9.9mn ICPI: 48/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.1
4.0
3.1
2.0 e
Real GDP, %
2.9
2.9
1.7 -0.2 -0.1
0.4
Consumer Prices, %
2.2
2.6
5.2
2.9
4.1
5.8 e
Current Account, US$bn
4.9
4.2
Forints/Euro, annual avge. 297.0 307.8 309.8 311.4
311.5 313.0
1
1
2.9
1.5
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.6
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 46.3 41.8 32.9 25.4
1
90 day T-bill rate (%), end period. Forecasts approximately
for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Policy: The Reserve Bank targets a stable real effective exchange
rate. It intervenes to influence the rupee/US$ rate to offset US$
movements against other trading partners' currencies.
Outlook: The rupee has strengthened, despite a self-inflicted loss
of growth momentum from demonitization. Q4 indicators confirm
disruptions to output caused by its poor implementation. The Modiled government has announced budgetary stimulus measures
ahead of elections in five states to sooth economic pain caused by
the sudden elimination of large bank notes in November.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts*
Nominal GDP (2015):US$2117.5bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Baa3/BBBPopulation (mid-2015):
1.3bn ICPI: 40/100
Consensus
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017
5.6
6.6
7.2
7.6
6.8
7.4
Real GDP (market prices), %
10.2 12.2
6.0
4.9
4.7
4.9
Consumer Prices, % 1
-88.2 -32.3 -26.9 -22.2
Current Account, US$bn
-16.5 -26.1
Rupees/US$, annual avge. 53.35 58.35 61.01 64.11
67.19 68.52
2
2
8.2
8.9
8.3
7.2
6.5
6.8
Short Term Interest Rates 2
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 261.7 267.7 295.9 327.8
*All data are for fiscal years beginning April 1 except rupees/US$ and
forex reserves 1 Rural and urban from FY2012 2 91 day T-bill rate (%),
fiscal year end. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Policy: Until August 1997, the rupiah followed a crawling US$ peg
system, with a 4.0% to 5.0% annual decline. It is now managed within
horizontal bands. FX controls were tightened in late 2008.
Outlook: The rupiah received a lift last week as Moody's upgraded
its credit rating outlook for Indonesia from 'stable' to 'positive'. The
revision follows a similar move by Fitch in December and reflects
fiscal discipline and government progress in reforms. The country's
current account deficit fell to 2.0% of GDP in 2016, from 3.1% in
2015, despite volatility in commodities.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$865.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Baa3/BB+
Population (mid-2015): 257.6mn ICPI: 37/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
5.6
5.0
4.9
5.0
Real GDP, %
5.2
5.3
6.4
6.4
6.4
3.5
Consumer Prices, %
4.2
4.4
-29.1 -27.5 -17.5 -16.3
-20.6 -23.9
Current Account, US$bn
Rupiah/US$, annual avge. 10417 11905 13333 13305
13546 13616
11
11
8.0
7.3
8.9
7.3
6.7
6.8
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 93.4 106.1 100.6 105.9 e
1
3 month deposits (%), end year. Forecasts approximately
for 3 and 12 months from survey date.
21
FEBRUARY 2017
MAJOR CURRENCIES
ISRAELI SHEKEL
Policy: Inflation targeting was introduced in 1997, with an annual
CPI price stability target range of 1% to 3%. The shekel has floated
independently since 2004, with occasional FX intervention.
Shekels per US$
Consensus
of 12 F'csts
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
3.831
3.762
3.820
3.819
3.815
3.810
3.800
3.787
3.774
3.849
3.815
3.821
3.817
3.813
3.806
3.793
3.781
3.768
% Chge
Forecast
Shekel
from --- Range --per
Spot High
Low Euro
3.752
3.815
3.822
3.810
3.760
-1.7
-1.8
-1.5
-0.2
3.738
3.726
3.650
3.587
3.953
3.900
3.929
3.995
3.979
4.007
4.003
4.003
4.027
Shekels per US$
3.2
3.2
Shekels/US$
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.4
PPP Estimate (Latest: 3.93)
4.6
4.6
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
JAPANESE YEN
Yen per US$
Consensus
of 86 F'csts
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
109.4
114.1
115.2
116.0
116.5
117.1
117.4
117.6
117.9
116.6
114.6
115.7
116.3
116.8
117.3
117.5
117.7
118.0
% Chge
Forecast
from --- Range --Spot High
Low
113.9
114.6
115.5
117.2
118.1
-0.6
-1.4
-2.8
-3.6
100.0
100.0
96.00
95.00
120.7
125.0
130.3
135.0
Yen
per
Euro
70
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 87.82)
80
80
90
90
100
100
110
110
Yens/US$
120
120
130
130
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
MALAYSIAN RINGGIT
M$ per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
---- Range ---of 25 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
4.322
4.448
4.475
4.495
4.504
4.512
4.501
4.486
4.470
4.486
4.448
4.491
4.500
4.508
4.509
4.494
4.478
4.462
4.449
4.448
4.488
4.514
4.452
0.0
-0.9
-1.5
-0.1
4.101
4.123
4.142
4.000
4.550
4.670
4.783
4.720
M$ per US$
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.8
4.0
3.8
PPP Estimate (Latest: 3.54)
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.0
4.2
Ringgit/US$
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$296.0bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A1/A+
Population (mid-2015):
8.1mn ICPI: 64/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
3.3
2.6
2.5
2.5
Real GDP, %
3.3
3.2
1.5
0.5 -0.6 -0.5
Consumer Prices, %
0.8
1.6
9.8 11.9 13.7 12.3 e 12.9 12.9
Current Account, US$bn
Shekels/US$, annual avge. 3.609 3.571 3.886 3.839
3.804 3.793
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.1
na
na
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 81.0 84.3 88.9 97.3
1
3 mth treasury bills (%), end period.
Policy: The yen is an independently floating currency, although the
Bank of Japan will intervene in consultation with the Ministry of
Finance in periods of high FX volatility. Inflation target of 2.0%.
Outlook: See pages 8 and 9.
120.8
120.3
121.0
123.1
126.5
Yen per US$
70
Outlook: The shekel rose above 3.75 per US$ last week, as global
demand for the US$ softened. The Bank of Israel kept rates
unchanged at 0.1% on January 23, as inflation has thus far failed
to emerge from negative territory. Although the country benefits
from solid growth and low unemployment, regional tensions pose
as a significant risk to the economic outlook.
4.4
4.6
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$4125.5bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):A1/A+
Population (mid-2015): 126.6mn ICPI: 72/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.0
0.2
1.3
1.0
Real GDP, %
1.2
1.0
0.3
2.8
0.8 -0.1
Consumer Prices, %
0.7
1.0
46.2 38.5 134.9 183.9 e 172.9 166.2
Current Account, US$bn
97.5 105.7 121.0 108.6
Yen/US$, annual average
115.5 117.5
1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.01
0.0
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 1203 1200 1180 1158
1
3 mth yen TIBOR (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12
months from survey date.
Policy: Pegged to the US$ at M$3.80 between September 3, 1998
and July 2005. The central bank has since adopted a managed float
with exchange controls.
Outlook: The ringgit has traded between M$4.4/US$ and M$4.5 in
recent months, kept stable by the central bank's crackdown on FX
speculation. Restrictions on the offshore trading of non-deliverable
forwards, though, make it harder to hedge positions and have
undermined investor confidence. Growth in the economy tumbled to
an estimated 4.2% in 2016, from 5.0% in 2015.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015):
US$298.0bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A3/APopulation (mid-2015):
30.3mn ICPI: 49/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
4.7
6.0
5.0
4.2 e
Real GDP, %
4.2
4.4
2.1
3.1
2.1
2.1
Consumer Prices, %
2.7
2.6
11.3 14.8
8.9
5.1 e
Current Account, US$bn
6.3
6.7
Ringgits/US$, annual avge. 3.149 3.271 3.883 4.142
4.481 4.492
1
1
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.4
3.4
3.4
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 130.5 111.8 91.4 91.2
1
3 month interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months
from survey date.
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
22
MAJOR CURRENCIES
FEBRUARY 2017
Policy: Since the 1994 devaluation, Mexico has adopted a floating
exchange rate system with occasional intervention. Inflation targeting
was introduced in 2001 (currently 3% with a band of +/-1%).
MEXICAN PESO
Pesos per US$
-See p.33 for cross rates
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
---- Range ---of 9 F'csts Spot
High
Low
20.32
21.36
21.55
21.69
20.51
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19.83
20.92
21.49
21.59
21.64
21.66
21.44
21.15
20.86
20.60
21.36
21.57
21.61
21.66
21.59
21.30
21.00
20.71
-4.9
-5.7
-6.3
-0.9
20.48
20.51
20.20
19.16
22.55
23.00
22.55
22.13
10.0
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 15.2)
12.0
12.0
14.0
14.0
16.0
16.0
18.0
18.0
20.0
20.0
22.0
22.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
0.715
0.694
2016 Q4
0.715
0.701
2017 Q1
0.695
0.690
Q2
0.687
0.684
Q3
0.681
0.678
Q4
0.676
0.675
2018 Q1
0.677
0.679
Q2
0.681
0.683
Q3
0.685
0.687
Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
1.4
2.3
2.6
1.5 e
Real GDP, %
1.5
2.1
4.0
4.1
2.1
3.4
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec,
4.9
3.9
-31.0 -26.1 -33.2 -30.3 e -30.1 -30.8
Current Account, US$bn
12.77 13.28 15.81 18.67
Pesos/US$, annual avge.
21.41 21.28
11
11
3.2
2.7
3.0
5.7
6.3
7.1
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 168.6 185.2 168.4 168.7
173.0 174.2
1
28-day CETES (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately
3 and 12 months from survey date.
Pesos/US$
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
---- Range ---of 28 F'csts Spot
High
Low
- See p.33 for cross rates
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015):US$1146.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A3/BBB+
Population (mid-2015):
123.8mn ICPI: 30/100
Consensus
Pesos per US$
10.0
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR
US$ per NZ$
Outlook: See pages 14 and 15.
0.716
0.701
0.692
0.674
0.690
-2.2
-3.4
-5.9
-3.7
0.743
0.745
0.751
0.760
0.670
0.657
0.610
0.620
Policy: The NZ$ floats freely, but the central bank monitors its trade
weighted value in setting monetary policy, with a view to keeping
'near-term' inflation anchored near 2.0%.
Outlook: The NZ$ depreciated last week, after the Reserve Bank
indicated that it remains "higher than is sustainable for balanced
growth". Interest rates were kept unchanged at 1.75%, following a
rate cut in November, and monetary policy is now expected to remain
low for a considerable period. The NZ$ is expected to drop to
US$0.674/NZ$ by end February 2018 (consensus).
US$ per NZ$
0.90
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$172.3bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AA
Population (mid-2015):
4.5mn ICPI: 90/100
Consensus
0.90
0.85
0.85
US$/NZ$
0.80
0.80
0.75
0.75
0.70
0.70
0.65
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.2
3.4
2.5
3.2 e
3.2
2.9
Real GDP, %
1.1
1.2
0.3
0.6
1.7
1.9
Consumer Prices, %
-5.8 -6.4 -5.6 -4.9 e -5.7 -6.4
Current Account, US$bn
0.821 0.831 0.700 0.698
US$/NZ$, annual avge.
0.694 0.680
1
1
2.8
3.7
2.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 14.4 14.1 13.1 15.5 e
1
90-day bank bills (%), end year. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months
from survey date.
0.65
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 0.64)
0.60
0.60
0.55
0.55
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: The krone exchange rate is determined on the basis of
supply and demand in the FX market. Inflation targeting (currently
set at 2.5%) was introduced in 2001.
NORWEGIAN KRONE
Kroners per Euro
% Chge
Consensus from
of 23 F'csts Spot
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
9.038
9.079
2016 Q4
8.930
8.909
2017 Q1
8.882
8.857
Q2
8.833
8.810
Q3
8.787
8.764
Q4
8.741
8.721
2018 Q1
8.705
8.688
Q2
8.671
8.654
Q3
8.637
8.620
Q4
8.890
8.909
8.872
8.733
8.598
-0.2
0.2
1.8
3.4
Forecast
--- Range --High Low
Nkr
per
US$
8.700
8.560
7.838
7.838
8.382
8.483
8.471
8.312
8.027
9.050
9.232
9.733
9.100
Kroners per Euro
7.2
7.6
8.0
7.2
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 8.6)
7.6
8.0
8.4
8.4
8.8
8.8
9.2
9.2
Kroners/Euro
9.6
9.6
10.0
10.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Outlook: A recovery in the price outlook for crude oil has lifted the
krone, which is now at its highest level in 17-months. Confidence
in the economy has improved as a consequence, although growth
in 2017 is likely to remain relatively modest. Inflation dropped to
2.8% (y-o-y) in January, from 3.5% in December, adding to
speculation that the Norges Bank might cut rates.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$389.5bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AAA
Population (mid-2015):
5.2mn ICPI: 85/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.3
2.2
1.0
0.8
Mainland GDP, %
1.5
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.2
3.6
Consumer Prices, %
2.3
1.9
53.5 55.1 33.5 19.5 e 25.0 27.8
Current Account, US$bn
Kroners/Euro, annual avge. 7.793 8.332 8.926 9.288
8.858 8.688
1
1
1.7
1.5
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 54.6 61.6 54.6 59.2 e
1
3 month Interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and
12 months from survey date.
23
MAJOR CURRENCIES
FEBRUARY 2017
Policy: The Peruvian sol is allowed to float independently. Since
2001, the main objective of the central bank has been to maintain
price stability. Inflation target of 2% (with a band of +/-1%).
PERUVIAN SOL
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
---- Range ---of 8 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Soles per US$
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
3.395
3.353
2016 Q4
3.315
3.398
2017 Q1
3.416
3.428
Q2
3.436
3.443
Q3
3.451
3.459
Q4
3.467
3.477
2018 Q1
3.489
3.501
Q2
3.513
3.526
Q3
Q4
3.538
3.550
3.265
3.398
3.423
3.469
3.567
-3.9
-4.6
-5.9
-8.5
3.310
3.330
3.270
3.550
3.450
3.500
3.640
3.580
2.5
2.6
2.6
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 3.11)
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
5.8
2.4
3.3
3.9 e
Real GDP, %
4.1
4.0
2.9
3.2
4.4
3.2
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec,
2.9
2.6
-8.6 -8.2 -9.2 -6.6 e
Current Account, US$bn
-6.5 -6.8
2.699 2.838 3.181 3.375
Soles/US$, annual avge.
3.404 3.502
4.0
3.5
3.8
4.3
4.3
4.4
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 63.2 60.1 59.4 59.9 e 62.9 64.5
1 Monetary policy rate (%), end period.
3.4
3.4
Soles/US$
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: The peso floats independently, although there are some
restrictions on currency sales in capital transactions and the central
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
---- Range ---- bank frequently intervenes to stabilise the exchange rate.
of 23 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Pesos per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
49.11
49.84
50.15
50.23
50.22
50.20
50.00
49.74
49.48
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$192.4bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A3/BBB+
Population (mid-2015): 30.8mn ICPI: 35/100
Consensus
Soles per US$
2.5
PHILIPPINE PESO
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Outlook: The sol exceeded 3.26/US$ last week, lifted by resilience
in the domestic economy, a sharp revival in the price of copper and
reduced global US$ demand. However, talk of FX intervention to
cool its advance has reduced upward pressure, as has news of a
corruption scandal involving a former president, which threatens to
deter new investments in the country.
49.71
49.96
50.24
50.23
50.22
50.12
49.87
49.61
49.35
49.93
49.96
50.24
50.21
49.18
-0.1
-0.6
-0.6
1.5
49.00
49.00
48.00
46.00
51.00
51.39
52.75
52.67
Outlook: Unlike the revival in most other Asian currencies, the peso
has traded between 49.5/US$ and 50.0/US$ in recent weeks. The
economy, supported by domesic demand, expanded 6.6% (y-o-y)
in Q4, bringing full year growth to 6.8%. However, uncertainty about
US trade protectionism and the unpredictability of domestic policymaking under President Duterte have restrained sentiment.
Pesos per US$
36.0
36.0
38.0
38.0
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 38.5)
40.0
40.0
42.0
42.0
44.0
44.0
46.0
46.0
48.0
48.0
Pesos/US$
50.0
50.0
52.0
52.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
POLISH ZLOTY
Zlotys per Euro
% Chge Forecast
Consensus from --- Range --of 13 F'csts Spot High Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
4.380
4.341
4.370
4.370
4.365
4.360
4.350
4.337
4.325
4.403
4.363
4.372
4.368
4.363
4.356
4.343
4.331
4.319
4.315
4.363
4.374
4.360
4.310
-1.1
-1.4
-1.0
0.1
4.242
4.185
4.091
4.104
4.550
4.484
4.600
4.600
Zl
per
US$
4.069
4.154
4.176
4.150
4.024
Zlotys per Euro
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.9
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 4.23)
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.4
Zlotys/Euro
4.5
4.6
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$292.1bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Baa2/BBB
Population (mid-2015):
100.7mn ICPI: 35/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
7.1
6.2
5.9
6.8
Real GDP, %
6.4
6.3
2.9
4.2
1.4
1.8
Consumer Prices, %
3.1
3.3
11.4 10.8
7.7
2.9 e
Current Account, US$bn
1.7
1.2
42.40 44.39 45.48 47.48
Pesos/US$, annual avge.
50.11 49.85
1
1
0.0
1.4
1.8
1.6
2.0
2.4
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 73.8 70.3 72.4 72.5 e
1
3 month interbank rate (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and
12 months from survey date.
Policy: Until 2000 the zloty was pegged against a US$ and euro
basket. It has since been allowed to float. Inflation targeting introduced in 1999 (currently 2.5% with a band of +/-1%).
Outlook: Despite questions about democracy and fiscal discipline
under the rightwing government, positive growth expectations
have lifted the zloty, which rose almost 2.0% in January. The
consensus expects growth of around 2.8% in 2016 to be exceeded
in 2017 and 2018 (box below), driven by consumer demand and
increases in government spending.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015):US$475.6bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): A2/BBB+
Population (mid-2015): 38.6mn ICPI: 62/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
1.4
3.3
3.9
2.8 e
Real GDP, %
3.0
3.2
0.9
0.0 -0.9 -0.6
Consumer Prices, %
1.5
2.0
-6.7 -11.4 -2.9 -2.7 e -4.7 -6.4
Current Account, US$bn
Zlotys/Euro, annual avge. 4.195 4.177 4.179 4.363
4.362 4.343
1
1
2.6
2.0
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.8
Short Term Interest Rates1
99.3
94.1
89.4
109.5
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn
1
3 mth interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for approximately
3 and 12 months from survey date.
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
24
MAJOR CURRENCIES
FEBRUARY 2017
ROMANIAN LEU
% Chge Forecast
Consensus from --- Range --of 7 F'csts Spot
High Low
Lei per Euro
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
Average
4.508
2016 Q4
4.502
2017 Q1
4.509
Q2
4.524
Q3
4.536
Q4
4.547
2018 Q1
4.546
Q2
4.540
Q3
4.535
Q4
4.501
4.499
4.513
4.550
4.528
0.0
-0.3
-1.1
-0.6
4.450
4.483
4.459
4.325
4.540
4.550
4.800
4.800
Policy: Managed float. The euro became the sole reference rate in
March 2003. Exchange controls regulate the sale of foreign currency. Four zeros were dropped from the leu in July 2005.
Lei
per
US$
4.244
4.284
4.309
4.331
4.228
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$177.9bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa3/BBBPopulation (mid-2015):
19.5mn ICPI: 48/100
Consensus
Lei per Euro
End 4.0
Quarter 4.1
4.543
4.2
4.499
4.517 4.3
4.530 4.4
4.542
4.548 4.5
4.543 4.6
4.538
4.7
4.532
Jan 11
4.0
4.1
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
3.5
3.1
3.9
4.8 e
Real GDP, %
3.5
3.2
4.0
1.1 -0.6 -1.5
Consumer Prices, %
1.8
2.8
-2.1 -1.4 -2.1 -4.2 e -5.4 -6.0
Current Account, US$bn
4.418 4.437 4.440 4.491
Lei/Euro, annual avge.
4.518 4.542
2.4
1.7
1.0
0.9
na
na
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 44.8 39.1 35.1 34.8
38.2 40.6
1
Interbank lending rate (%), end period.
4.2
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 4.47)
4.3
4.4
4.5
Lei/Euro
4.6
4.7
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
RUSSIAN ROUBLE
% Chge Forecast
Consensus from --- Range --of 12 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Roubles per US$
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
63.01
59.39
60.58
60.91
61.20
61.50
61.77
62.04
62.31
61.04
60.38
60.76
61.05
61.35
61.64
61.91
62.17
62.44
58.09
60.38
60.66
61.55
62.62
-3.8
-4.2
-5.6
-7.2
57.00
57.00
56.00
58.23
64.00
64.66
67.66
68.00
20
20
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 47.4)
30
40
40
50
50
60
60
70
70
Roubles/US$
80
- See p.33 for cross rates
Policy: Managed float. The S$ is monitored by the Monetary
Authority of Singapore (MAS) against a trade-weighted basket. The
exchange rate is the main instrument used in controlling inflation.
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
---- Range ---of 23 F'csts Spot
High
Low Outlook: The S$ has started 2017 on a positive note, climbing
1.423
1.447
1.460
1.478
1.448
-1.6
-2.5
-3.7
-1.7
1.420
1.420
1.380
1.320
1.20
1.25
S$/US$
1.30
1.35
1.50
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.470
1.483
1.540
1.520
S$ per US$
1.25
1.445
1.447
1.462
1.468
1.474
1.476
1.468
1.461
1.453
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
1.3
0.7 -3.7 -0.6 e
Real GDP, %
1.1
1.5
6.4 11.4 12.9
5.4
Consumer Prices, Dec/Dec,
4.8
4.5
34.8 58.4 69.0 28.3 e 44.9 44.6
Current Account, US$bn
Roubles/US$, annual avge. 31.85 37.59 60.24 66.89
60.52 61.90
5.5 17.0 11.0 10.0
9.3
7.9
Short Term Interest Rates1
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 470 339 320 314 e
346 350
1
Central Bank Policy Rate (%)
80
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End 1.20
Average Quarter
1.411
1.427
1.456
1.465
1.471
1.476
1.472
1.464
1.457
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015):US$1370.4bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Ba1/BB+
Population (mid-2015): 143.5mn
ICPI: 29/100
Consensus
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
© Copyright
Outlook: See pages 12 and 13.
61.61
63.42
63.53
64.67
67.07
Roubles per US$
30
Policy: Efforts to hold the rouble in a narrow corridor basket were
abandoned in November 2014. Officially a free-floating exchange
rate, with occasional intervention.
Rbl
per
Euro
SINGAPOREAN DOLLAR
S$ per US$
Outlook: The leu crashed at the start of the month as street protests
erupted in response to a parliamentary bill to ease anti-corruption
legislation. It fell through the 4.55 per euro on February 1, a oneday loss of almost 1%, before recovering after the government
announced that the proposed law will be repelled. Political instability has raised concerns about the economic outlook.
1.40
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 1.48)
1.55
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.60
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
around 1.8% in the year to date. Yet few observers expect that trend
to continue. Real GDP rebounded in Q4, partly due to an improvement in manufacturing. However, services and contruction remain
soft, while government spending is set to become less expansionary. A weak inflation outlook also suggests that the MAS will retain
a bias toward monetary easing.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$292.9bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AAA
Population (mid-2015):
5.6mn ICPI: 84/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
4.7
3.3
2.0
1.8 e
Real GDP, %
1.6
2.0
2.4
1.0 -0.5 -0.5
Consumer Prices, %
0.8
1.2
53.8 53.5 57.9 61.6 e 60.8 63.2
Current Account, US$bn
1.251 1.267 1.374 1.381
S$/US$, annual avge.
1.455 1.467
1
1
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.9
1.11 1.31
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 270.5 254.6 245.7 245.6 e
1
3 month-S$ interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months
from survey date.
25
MAJOR CURRENCIES
FEBRUARY 2017
SOUTH AFRICAN RAND
Rands per US$
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
13.34
13.79
14.06
14.23
14.09
-3.3
-5.1
-6.3
-5.4
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter 6
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13.92
13.56
13.97
14.10
14.16
14.21
14.20
14.17
14.13
13.68
13.79
14.08
14.13
14.19
14.22
14.18
14.15
14.12
13.38
13.29
12.50
11.00
14.14
14.49
14.72
14.95
15.10
14.50
14.94
15.83
16.57
Rands per US$
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 11.32)
8
10
10
12
12
14
14
16
18
18
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: Until late-1997, the exchange rate was allowed to fluctuate
in a +/-10% band around the weighted average US$ exchange rate
from the previous day's trading. The won now floats freely.
SOUTH KOREAN WON
Won per US$
% Chge
Consensus from
of 19 F'csts Spot
- See p.33 for cross rates
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
1152
1189
1195
1200
1168
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End 1000
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1158
1169
1193
1196
1198
1200
1194
1186
1178
1208
1189
1196
1197
1199
1198
1190
1182
1174
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.3
1.6
1.3
0.5 e
Real GDP, %
1.2
1.8
5.7
6.1
4.6
6.4
Consumer Prices, %
5.8
5.5
-21.6 -18.6 -13.7 -11.7 e -12.0 -12.8
Current Account, US$bn
9.626 10.85 12.68 14.68
Rand/US$, annual avge.
13.95 14.18
5.1
6.1
6.9
7.6
na
na
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 41.9 41.5 38.9 39.6 e
1
3 month JIBar (%), end period.
Rand/US$
16
Forecast
---- Range ---High
Low Outlook: The won strengthened last month, despite news that
-3.1
-3.6
-4.0
-1.4
1139
1120
1050
1050
1230
1250
1313
1280
Won per US$
1000
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 1037)
1050
1050
1100
1100
1150
1150
Won/US$
1200
1200
1250
1250
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
growth in the economy slowed to 0.4% (q-o-q) in Q4. Most observers
had expected a weak GDP performance due to sluggish demand
indicators, as well as uncertainties caused by the impeachment of
its president. The political scandal could force the country to accelerate reforms and improve governance standards.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$1379.4bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa2/AA
Population (mid-2015):
50.3mn ICPI: 53/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.9
3.3
2.6
2.7
Real GDP, %
2.5
2.5
1.3
1.3
0.7
1.0
Consumer Prices, %
1.7
1.7
81.1 84.4 105.9 98.7
90.4 86.6
Current Account, US$bn
1094 1053 1130 1160
Won/US$, annual avge.
1189 1189
1
1
2.7
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.41 1.51
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 335.6 353.6 358.5 362.5 e
1
91-day CDs (%), end year. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months
from survey date.
SWEDISH KRONA
Kronas per Euro
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
--- Range --of 27 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9.755
9.494
9.476
9.392
9.326
9.259
9.194
9.130
9.065
9.582
9.545
9.425
9.359
9.292
9.227
9.162
9.097
9.033
9.472
9.545
9.447
9.248
8.989
8.0
-0.8
0.3
2.4
5.4
9.370
8.470
8.700
8.400
10.10
10.10
9.800
9.520
Kronas per Euro
Skr
per
US$
8.931
9.088
9.020
8.802
8.393
8.0
8.5
8.5
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 9.28)
9.0
9.0
9.5
9.5
Kronas/Euro
10.0
Outlook: The rand suffered some volatility last week as dissatisfaction with and allegations of corruption against President Jacob
Zuma led to violence at his state address. Political tensions and
weak growth have raised fears that South Africa could soon be
stripped of its investment grade status, which would make it harder
for the country to access capital markets.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$314.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Baa2/BBBPopulation (mid-2015):
54.5mn ICPI: 45/100
Consensus
6
8
Policy: Since the abolition of the financial rand in 1995, the unified
FX rate has been determined by market forces and exchange
controls. Inflation targeting introduced in 2000 (currently 3% to 6%).
Rand
per
Euro
% Chge Forecast
Consensus from --- Range --of 19 F'csts Spot
High
Low
10.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: The Swedish krona floats independently. Primary focus of
monetary policy is the inflation target (introduced in 1993 and
currently set at 2.0%).
Outlook: The uptrend in the krona stalled last week, having risen
1.2% in the year to date. Inflation, measured by the CPI, accelerated
to 1.7% (y-o-y) in December, almost double that in September,
leading to speculation that the Riksbank will need to begin its
process of policy normalisation much sooner than in the euro zone.
Currency strength, though, does not bode well for exports.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$493.0bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aaa/AAA
Population (mid-2015):
9.8mn ICPI: 88/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
1.2
2.6
4.1
3.3 e
Real GDP, %
2.4
2.1
0.0 -0.2
0.0
1.0
Consumer Prices, %
1.6
1.9
30.4 26.6 25.9 23.4 e 23.1 23.8
Current Account, US$bn
Krona/Euro, annual avge. 8.648 9.075 9.351 9.465
9.422 9.162
0.9
0.3 -0.3 -0.6
-0.5 1 -0.3 1
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 55.4 53.3 49.8 51.6
1
3 mth Interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months
from survey date.
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
26
MAJOR CURRENCIES
FEBRUARY 2017
Policy: Until August 2011, the Swiss franc had floated independently. The Sfr1.20 per euro ceiling that was introduced in its place
was abandoned in January 2015.
SWISS FRANC
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
1.079
1.068
1.070
1.073
1.075
1.077
1.081
1.086
1.091
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Swfr
per
US$
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus f from m--- Range --of 28 F'csts Spot
High Low
Francs per Euro
1.072
1.067
1.072
1.074
1.076
1.078
1.083
1.088
1.093
1.066
1.067
1.072
1.077
1.096
-0.1
-0.6
-1.0
-2.8
1.010
1.040
1.000
1.058
1.005
1.016
1.023
1.025
1.023
1.100
1.110
1.160
1.150
Francs per Euro
1.00
1.00
1.10
1.10
Francs/Euro
1.20
1.20
1.30
1.30
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 1.26)
1.40
1.40
1.50
1.50
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
TAIWANESE DOLLAR
T$ per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
---- Range ---of 22 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
31.02
32.05
32.28
32.30
31.70
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End 28
Average Quarter
29
31.77
32.23
2016 Q4
31.47
32.05 30
2017 Q1
32.21
32.29
Q2
32.29
32.29 31
Q3
32.30
32.30 32
Q4
32.29
32.25
2018 Q1
32.18
32.10 33
Q2
32.03
31.95 34
Q3
31.87
31.80 Jan 11
Q4
-3.2
-3.9
-4.0
-2.2
31.00
30.80
30.00
29.50
33.30
33.13
33.73
33.50
T$ per US$
28
29
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 28.9)
30
31
32
T$/US$
33
34
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
THAI BAHT
Baht per US$
- See p.33 for cross rates
% Chge
Forecast
Consensus from
---- Range ---of 24 F'csts Spot
High
Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35.40
35.33
35.87
36.04
36.13
36.21
36.12
35.97
35.82
35.81
35.70
35.99
36.08
36.18
36.20
36.05
35.90
35.75
35.06
35.70
35.96
36.24
35.65
-1.8
-2.5
-3.3
-1.7
35.00
35.00
34.00
33.00
36.50
36.83
37.50
37.50
Baht per US$
28
28
30
30
Baht/US$
32
32
34
34
36
38
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 38.6)
36
38
40
40
42
42
44
44
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Outlook: Euro weakness continue to spur unwanted franc appreciation and add to speculation about more FX intervention by the
Swiss National Bank (policy above). Elections in the Netherlands,
France and Germany in the months ahead, alongside Brexit talks,
may raise demand for safe haven assets. Inflation, measured by the
CPI, turned positive in January, but remains close to zero.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$664.0bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Aaa/AAA
Population (mid-2015):
8.3mn ICPI: 86/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
1.8
2.0
0.8
1.4 e
Real GDP, %
1.5
1.7
-0.2
0.0 -1.1 -0.4
Consumer Prices, %
0.4
0.6
79.0 63.9 74.8 65.6 e 65.7 68.4
Current Account, US$bn
Francs/Euro, annual avge. 1.230 1.214 1.067 1.090
1.072 1.083
1
1
0.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.8
-0.8 -0.8
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 488.6 499.0 560.6 636.4 e
1
3 month Euro-Swiss franc deposits (%), end period. Forecasts for
3 and 12 months from survey date.
Policy: Managed float. The central bank has intervened, sometimes
heavily, in order to smooth fluctuations in the T$. A ban on foreign
time deposits was introduced in November 2009.
Outlook: Underpinned by signs of a turnaround in the economy, the
T$ has climbed almost 4.0% in the year to date. Growth eased to
0.47% in quarter-on-quarter terms in Q4, but accelerated to 2.58%
(y-o-y), from 2.03% in Q3, its highest level in seven quarters.
However, currency strength does not bode well for the exportdependent economy, notably its tech industry.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$525.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa3/AAPopulation (mid-2015):
23.5mn ICPI: 61/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.2
4.0
0.7
1.4
Real GDP, %
1.7
1.9
0.8
1.2 -0.3
1.4
Consumer Prices, %
1.4
1.3
51.3 61.9 75.8 76.5 e 70.5 68.5
Current Account, US$bn
29.77 30.37 31.90 32.25
T$/US$, annual avge.
32.06 32.09
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.61 0.7 1
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 416.8 419.0 426.0 434.2
1
91-day commercial paper (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12
months from survey date.
Policy: Managed float with intervention as required. The Bank of
Thailand adopted an inflation targeting framework in 2000 in a bid
to keep core price increases between 0.5% and 3.0%.
Outlook: The baht has been lifted by a decline in the US dollar and
confidence in the domestic economy. Growth should broaden in
2017 due to planned increases in government spending, which
could add as much as 0.5%-points to GDP. The Ministry of Finance
upgraded last week its full year GDP forecast to 3.6%, from an earlier
estimate of 3.4%, above the consensus.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$395.8bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P):Baa1/BBB+
Population (mid-2015):
68.0mn ICPI: 35/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
2.7
0.8
2.8
3.2 e
Real GDP, %
3.2
3.2
2.2
1.9 -0.9
0.2
Consumer Prices, %
1.6
1.9
-4.8 15.1 32.1 46.4
Current Account, US$bn
34.0 29.0
30.69 32.48 34.19 35.30
Baht/US$, annual avge.
35.84 36.03
1
1
2.4
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.8
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 159.0 149.1 149.3 164.1
1
3 month interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months
from survey date.
27
FEBRUARY 2017
MAJOR CURRENCIES
TURKISH LIRA
Lira per US$
% Chge Forecast
Consensus from --- Range --of 24 F'csts Spot
High Low
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
3.683
3.716
3.765
3.815
3.919
-0.9
-2.2
-3.5
-6.0
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
1.0
Average Quarter
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
3.288
3.725
3.749
3.779
3.795
3.813
3.836
3.862
3.888
3.518
3.716
3.770
3.787
3.804
3.823
3.849
3.875
3.901
3.356
3.450
3.350
3.223
4.080
4.030
4.116
4.381
Lira
per
Euro
3.906
3.902
3.943
4.008
4.198
Lira per US$
1.0
1.5
1.5
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 2.34)
2.0
2.0
2.5
2.5
3.0
3.0
Lira/US$
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
UKRAINIAN HRYVNIA
Hryvnia per US$
Consensus
of 4 F'csts
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
Average
25.90
2016 Q4
27.35
2017 Q1
27.65
Q2
27.85
Q3
28.16
Q4
28.45
2018 Q1
28.64
Q2
28.80
Q3
Q4
28.96
27.44
27.70
27.60
28.51
29.14
-0.9
-0.6
-3.8
-5.8
Forecast
--- Range --High Low
27.11
27.00
26.87
26.51
28.00
29.00
31.00
32.00
Hrv
per
Euro
29.10
29.09
28.90
29.96
31.21
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 16.60)
Hryvnias/US$
30
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
UNITED KINGDOM POUND
US$ per UK£
% Chge
Consensus from
of 77 F'csts Spot
Spot Rate (Feb. 13)
Forecasts (end-Mar. 2017)
(end-May 2017)
(end-Feb. 2018)
(end-Feb. 2019)
Interpolated Rates
Quarter
End
Average Quarter
1.241
1.236
2016 Q4
1.240
1.211
2017 Q1
1.207
1.205
Q2
1.203
1.202
Q3
1.201
1.199
Q4
1.198
1.200
2018 Q1
1.205
1.209
Q2
1.213
1.218
Q3
1.222
1.227
Q4
Outlook: The lira has stabilised in recent weeks, reflecting reduced global US$ demand and FX intervention from the central
bank. Inflation rocketed to 9.22% (y-o-y) in January, raising speculation about a rate hike. Fitch Ratings downgraded Turkey’s
sovereign debt rating to junk status in late January due to political
risks and security challenges in the country.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$722.0bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Ba1/BB
Population (mid-2015):
78.7mn ICPI: 41/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
8.5
5.2
6.1
2.3 e
Real GDP, %
2.3
3.0
7.5
8.9
7.7
7.8
Consumer Prices, %
8.8
7.6
-63.6 -43.6 -32.2 -33.8 e -35.0 -36.8
Current Account, US$bn
1.898 2.187 2.706 3.016
Lira/US$, annual avge.
3.762 3.850
1
1
7.8 11.3 10.8
8.5
9.8
9.4
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 110.9 105.3 92.9 90.6
1
Overnight interbank lending rate (%), end period. Forecasts for
approximately 3 and 12 months from survey date.
Policy: Closely managed against the US$ with strict exchange
controls to discourage sharp movements. Major political and
economic problems. Territorial dispute with Russia.
Outlook: The hryvnia drifted lower last week, after an increase in
January, hampered partly by a seasonal reduction of FX earnings
from lower agriculture production. Growth has started to stabilise,
with the consensus predicting that it will expand 2.4% in 2017 and
2.8% in 2018. However, investors remain anxious about energy
security and the risks of fresh Russia-Ukraine tensions, which
could stymie the nascent recovery.
Hryvnia per US$
5
End
Quarter
27.10 10
27.70
27.70 15
28.00
28.31 20
28.56
28.72 25
28.88
29.03
% Chge
from
Spot
Policy: The crawling peg regime was abandoned in 2001, causing
a sharp devaluation of the lira. The currency now floats independently. Six zeroes were dropped from the lira in January 2005.
1.250
1.211
1.206
1.197
1.232
-3.1
-3.5
-4.2
-1.4
Forecast
--- Range --High
Low
UK£
per
Euro
1.280
1.290
1.330
1.400
0.848
0.867
0.869
0.878
0.869
1.118
1.115
1.050
1.050
US$ per UK£
2.00
2.00
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 1.71)
1.80
1.80
1.60
1.60
1.40
1.40
US$/Pound
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.00
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015): US$91.7bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Caa3/BPopulation (mid-2015): 44.8mn ICPI: 29/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
0.0 -6.8 -9.9
1.0 e
Real GDP, %
2.4
2.8
-0.3 12.1 48.7 13.9
Consumer Prices, %
9.9
7.7
-16.5 -4.6 -0.2 -2.5 e -2.4 -2.5
Current Account, US$bn
Hryvnia/US$, annual avge. 7.994 11.47 21.60 25.54
27.75 28.71
na
na
Short Term Interest Rates1 14.8 18.6 22.4 16.6
6.6 12.4 11.9
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 18.8
17.4 19.2
1
3 month Interbank rate (%), end period.
Policy: The UK left the EU Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
Sterling now floats independently. Inflation target of 2.0%.
Outlook: See pages 10 and 11.
Economic Indicators and Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP (2015):US$2858.5bn Debt Ratings (M/S&P): Aa1/AA
Population (mid-2015):
64.7mn ICPI: 81/100
Consensus
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018
1.9
3.1
2.2
2.0
Real GDP, %
1.5
1.3
2.5
1.5
0.0
0.7
Consumer Prices, %
2.6
2.7
-120 -140 -123 -133 e
Current Account, US$bn
-95 -75.6
1.564 1.647 1.529 1.353
US$/Pound, annual avge.
1.213 1.210
1
1
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
Short Term Interest Rates1
na
na
FX Reserves, end yr, US$bn 69.6 76.4 101.6 106.5
1
3 mth interbank (%), end period. Forecasts for 3 and 12 months
from survey date.
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
28
ADDITIONAL CURRENCIES
Albania Lek
(per Euro)
Spot
average
2010-2014 2015 135.6
Inflation, %
2.5
1.9 130
-0.1
2.2
Leks/Euro, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -1.5 -1.7 135
2.4
2.9
FX Reserves, US$bn
FEBRUARY 2017
Consensus Forecasts Bolivian Boliviano
average
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
2010-2014 2015 6.930
133.4
134.9
138.8
Inflation, Dec/Dec, %
6.1
3.0 6.5
(M/S&P): B1/B+
PPP Estimate
0.0 7.0
Bolivianos/US$, % chge 0.2
ICPI - 39/100
Current Account, US$bn 0.9 -1.5 7.5
10.9 11.4 8.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
Leks/Euro
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Algerian Dinar
average
2010-2014
Inflation, %
4.7
Dinars/US$, % chge
-3.2
Current Account, US$bn 6.8
180.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
Spot
2015 109.8
4.8 70
-17.8 80
-26.2 90
142.6
Policy: Managed float against a currency basket. Rate determined by
interbank transactions. ICPI - 34/100
Policy: The boliviano has been US$ 9.0
pegged since 2008. Capital controls. 9.5
10.0
(M/S&P): Ba3/BB ICPI - 33/100
Jan 11
Consensus Forecasts Botswanan Pula
average
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
2010-2014 2015 10.50
112.2
117.3
115.8
Inflation, %
6.6
3.1 6.0
-7.5 -14.3 7.0
Pula/US$, % chge
1.1 8.0
Current Account, US$bn 0.8
PPP Estimate
7.8
7.4 9.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
100
110
Dinars/US$
120
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: Pegged to a currency basket
comprising South African rand (50%)
and SDR (50%). ICPI - 60/100
Bulgarian Lev
(per Euro)
Consensus Forecasts
average
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
2010-2014 2015 1.745
1.892
1.880
1.866
Inflation, %
3.7
0.6 0.6
Manat/US$, % chge
0.4 -49.6
1.0
Current Account, US$bn 14.1 -0.2
PPP Estimate
11.2
6.1 1.4
FX Reserves, US$bn
Costa Rican Colon
Azerbaijani Manat
Manats/US$
1.8
Croatian Kuna
(per Euro)
PPP Estimate
0.37
0.38
Dinars/US$
0.39
(M/S&P): Ba2/BB0.40
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Bangladesh Taka
Spot
average
2010-2014 2015 79.95
Inflation, %
8.3
6.2 65
-1.9 -0.8 75
Taka/US$, % chge
2.7
Current Account, US$bn 1.5
13.3 25.8 85
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float with a preannounced exchange rate path since
June 2003. ICPI - 26/100
95
PPP Estimate
Belarusian Rouble
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015
2.008
Inflation, %
32.8 13.6 0.00
Rouble/US$, % chge
-22.9 -39.9 0.50
Current Account, US$bn -5.6 -2.1
1.00
4.2
2.2
FX Reserves, US$bn
2.00
PPP Estimate
2.1
2.2
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
552.5
555.0
564.3
Colones/US$
650
PPP Estimate
700
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: Managed float. Temporarily
pegged against the Swiss franc in
January 2015. ICPI - 49/100
7.6
Kunas/Euro
7.8
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: Managed float. Country has
high external funding requirements.
(M/S&P): B1/BB- ICPI - 31/100
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
46.81
47.20
46.83
PPP Estimate
43.5
45.5
Pesos/US$
47.5
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
1.000
1.000
1.000
(M/S&P): B3/B
Sucres/US$
27000
Rouble/US$
2.50
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Pulas/US$
12.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts Ecuadorian Sucre
average
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
2010-2014 2015 1.000
2.052
2.180
2.362
Inflation, Dec/Dec, %
3.8
3.5
24000
0.0
0.0
Sucres/US$, % change
25000
PPP Estimate
Current Account, US$bn -0.7 -2.2 26000
2.1
2.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
(M/S&P):
Caa1/B-
PPP Estimate
Consensus Forecasts
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
7.591
7.614
7.620
2010-2014 2015 7.455
Inflation, %
1.8 -0.5 7.2 (M/S&P):
PPP Estimate
Kuna/Euro, % chge
-0.6
0.1
Ba2/BB
Current Account, US$bn 0.0
2.5 7.4
14.9 14.5
FX Reserves, US$bn
1.50
Policy: Managed float. Currency redenominated (1:10000) on July 1,
2016. ICPI - 40/100
(M/S&P): A2/A-
11.0
Consensus Forecasts
Dominican Republic Peso
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
Spot
79.97
81.22
82.95
2010-2014 2015 46.91
Inflation, Dec/Dec %
4.7
2.3 35.5
(M/S&P):Ba3/BBPesos/US$, % chge
-3.1 -2.7 37.5
Current Account, US$bn -3.4 -1.3 39.5
Takas/US$
4.2
5.2 41.5
FX Reserves, US$bn
105
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
10.59
10.36
10.03
600
0.35
0.36
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
10.0
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 558.7
Inflation, Dec,Dec, %
4.8 -0.8 450
-1.0
0.7 500
Colons/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -2.3 -2.2 550
5.9
7.6
FX Reserves, US$bn
2.2
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Bahrain Dinar
average
2010-2014 2015
Inflation, %
2.1
1.8
Dinars/US$, % chge
0.0 -0.3
Current Account, US$bn 2.0 -1.0
4.9
5.5
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Fixed at Bdr0.376 = US$1.
Plans for monetary union with other
GCC members. ICPI - 43/100
Policy: Pegged at Lev1.95583 = €1.
The government is in no hurry to adopt
the euro. ICPI - 41/100
Policy: Managed float. Crawling peg
prior to 2006.
(M/S&P): Ba1/BB- ICPI - 58/100
(M/S&P): Ba1/BB+
PPP Estimate
Consensus Forecasts
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
2010-2014 2015 1.956
1.956
1.956
1.956
Inflation, %
1.8 -0.1 1.8
(M/S&P): Baa2/BB+
0.0
0.0 1.9
Lev / Euro, % chge
Lev/Euro
0.7
Current Account, US$bn 0.0
2.0
16.2 19.9
FX Reserves, US$bn
Consensus Forecasts
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
2010-2014 2015
165.8
181.7
218.1
283.0
10.9 10.3 80
Inflation, %
-2.1 -23.9 100
Kwanza/US$, % chge
Kwanza/US$
Current Account, US$bn 7.8 -8.5 120
140
FX Reserves, US$bn
28.2 23.8 160
(M/S&P):
Policy: Managed float. Kwanza has 180
PPP Estimate
B1/B
200
been largely stable since 2003. Oil- 220
dependent economy. ICPI - 18/100 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Angolan Kwanza average
Policy: Managed float. Oil-dependent. Currency peg abandoned in December 2015. ICPI - 30/100
Bolivianos/US
8.5
140
Policy: Independent float. Occasional
intervention to smooth excessive FX
145
fluctuations. 3% inflation target.
Jan 11
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
6.910
6.910
6.910
Policy: The sucre was abandoned
and replaced by the US$ at US$1 =
Suc25,000 in 2000. ICPI - 31/100
28000
PPP Estimate
29000
30000
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
29
FEBRUARY 2017
ADDITIONAL CURRENCIES
Consensus Forecasts
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
18.39
19.08
19.56
2010-2014 2015 17.65
4.0
Inflation, %
9.6 10.4 6.0
Pounds/US$
E£/US$, % chge
-4.7 -8.7 8.0
PPP Estimate
Current Account, US$bn -6.5 -16.8 10.0
12.0
Egypt floated the E£ in November
15.9 12.1
FX Reserves, US$bn
Egyptian Pound
14.0
2016 and raised rates in an effort to
Honduran Lempira
Spot
average
2010-2014 2015 23.57
Inflation, %
5.6
3.2 18.0
Lempira/US$, % chge
-2.1 -5.9 19.0
20.0
Current Account, US$bn -1.4 -1.3 21.0
2.7
3.6 22.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
severe US$ shortages and
Policy: Crawling peg until 2006.
Policy: Free float. Pound devalued by 16.0 alleviate
stabilise the economy.
18.0
Lempira now trades in a currency
almost 50% in November 2016.
20.0
(M/S&P): B3/B- ICPI - 34/100
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 band. (M/S&P): B2/B+ ICPI - 30/100
El Salvadorian Colon
Consensus Forecasts*
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
8.750
8.750
8.750
2010-2014 2015 8.755
Inflation, %
1.9 -0.7 8.5
Colones/US$, % chge
0.0
0.0 8.6
Colones/US$
Current Account, US$bn -1.2 -0.9 8.7
8.8
FX Reserves, US$bn
2.2
2.5 8.9
Policy: Colon was replaced by the US$
in 2001 at Cs8.75=US$1.
(M/S&P): B3/B- ICPI - 36/100
9.0
PPP Estimate
9.1
9.2
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
23.0
Consensus Forecasts*
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
23.82
24.48
25.37
Lempiras/US$
PPP Estimate
24.0
25.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
119.1
113.6
114.0
2010-2014 2015 113.3
100
Inflation, %
4.1
1.6 105 PPP Estimate ( M / S & P ) : A 3 / A Krona/US$, % chge
-1.9 -1.8 110
ICPI - 78/100
0.8 115
Current Account, US$bn -0.1
5.1
4.8 120
FX Reserves, US$bn
Icelandic Krona
125
Policy: Independent float. Capital
controls imposed following the 2008
crisis were lifted in June 2015.
130
Kronas/US$
135
140
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Georgian Lari
Consensus Forecasts* Iranian Rial
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
2010-2014 2015
2.751
2.788
2.807
Inflation, %
24.0 13.8
1.6
Rials/US$, % chge
-17.5 -9.9
1.8
PPP Estimate
Current Account, US$bn 30.4
2.0
1.8
2.2
FX Reserves, US$bn
96.8 89.7
(M/S&P): Ba3/BB2.4
Policy: Managed float. Lari replaced 2.6
Policy: Managed float. Exchange
Lari/US$
ICPI - 57/100
Russian rouble in 1993. Inflation target 2.8
controls. US economic sanctions trigof 5.0%.
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
gered rial slump in mid-2013.
average
2010-2014 2015
3.5
4.0
Inflation, %
-1.2 -21.6
Laris/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn-1.6 -1.8
FX Reserves, US$bn
2.5
2.3
Spot
2.625
Ghanaian Cedi
-- Consensus Forecasts -average
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
2010-2014 2015 4.465
4.363
4.445
4.686
Inflation,%
11.2 17.1 1.0
Cedis/US$, % change -14.4 -15.6
PPP Estimate
2.0
Current Account, US$bn -4.1 -2.8
4.9
na 3.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float. Four zeros 4.0 (M/S&P): B3/BICPI - 43/100
Cedis/US$
dropped from Cedi in 2007.
Inflation target of 8.0%.
Guatemalan Quetzal
average
2010-2014 2015
Inflation, %
4.4
2.4
Quetzals/US$, % chge 1.1 -0.2
Current Account, US$bn -1.2 -0.2
6.1
7.3
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float. Rate determined by interbank transactions.
(M/S&P): Ba1/BB ICPI - 28/100
5.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Spot
7.438
7.2
7.6
8.0
8.4
8.8
9.2
PPP Estimate
9.6
10.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Haitian Gourde
average
2010-2014 2015
Inflation, %
6.2
9.0
Gourdes/US$, % chge -3.1 -17.5
Current Account, US$bn -1.6 -0.7
2.0
1.8
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float with no predetermined path for the exchange rate.
ICPI - 20/100
22500
PPP Estimate
27500
32500
ICPI - 29/100
37500
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Iraqi Dinar
average
2010-2014 2015
3.7
1.4
Inflation, %
0.5
-3.2
Dinar/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn 21.7 -0.1
62.0 50.7
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float. Economy trying to rebuild after 2003 war. Major
political and security risks.
1125
ICPI - 17/100
1150
Dinars/US$
1175
1200
1225
1250
PPP Estimate
1275
1300
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: Pegged at CFA franc 655.957
per euro. Used in other former French
African colonies. ICPI - 34/100
680
690
PPP Estimate
700
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Jamaican Dollar
195
200
G$/US$
205
210
215
PPP Estimate
220
Policy: Managed float. Guyana is a
recipient of an IMF ESAF grant. Black
market rates. ICPI - 34/100
Rials/US$
17500
Consensus Forecasts* Ivory Coast
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
(CFA Franc)
7.637
7.757
7.901
2010-2014 2015 656.0
656.0
656.0
656.0
Inflation, %
2.2
1.4 630 (Moody's): Ba3
Quetzals/US$
CFA francs/Euro, % chge 0.0
0.0 640
CFA francs/Euro
650
Current Account, US$bn 0.4 -0.6
660
3.7
4.4 670
FX Reserves, US$bn
Guyanese Dollar
average
2010-2014 2015
Inflation, %
2.5 -1.1
0.0 -1.3
G$/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -0.4 -0.4
0.8
0.6
FX Reserves, US$bn
7500
12500
225
230
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
PPP Estimate
Policy: Managed float. Rates largely 125
135
market-determined.
Jan 11
(M/S&P): B3/B ICPI - 39/100
Jordanian Dinar
35
40
Gourdes/US$
45
50
75
average
2010-2014 2015 85
Inflation, %
9.0
3.7 95
J$/US$, % chge
-5.6 -4.8
Current Account, US$bn -1.4 -0.3 105
FX Reserves, US$bn
1.9
2.7 115
PPP Estimate
55
60
65
70
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
* Forecasts approximately for 3, 12 and 24 months from survey date
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 0.710
Inflation, %
4.3 -0.9 0.64
Dinars/US$, % chge
0.1 -0.2
Current Account, US$bn -3.1 -3.3 0.68
FX Reserves, US$bn
12.0 15.0 0.72
Policy: Effectively pegged to the
US$ since late 1995.
(M/S&P): B1/BB- ICPI - 48/100
0.76
J$/US$
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
0.709
0.709
0.709
Dinars/US$
PPP Estimate
0.80
0.84
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
30
ADDITIONAL CURRENCIES
Kazakhstani Tenge
Spot
average
2010-2014 2015 322.6
Inflation, %
6.6
6.6 100
Tenge/US$, % chge
-4.2 -44.1 150
Current Account, US$bn 4.0 -5.8 200
22.2 20.0 250
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed regime abandoned
in favour of a free float in Sep. 2015.
(M/S&P): Baa3/BBB- ICPI - 29/100
FEBRUARY 2017
Consensus Forecasts Malawian Kwacha
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
333.9
334.2
333.6
2010-2014 2015
Inflation, %
17.7 21.3
Kwacha/US$, % chge -20.2 -28.6
Current Account, US$bn -1.0 -1.3
PPP Estimate
0.3
0.6
FX Reserves, US$bn
300
Tenge/US$
350
400
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 103.5
Inflation, %
8.0
6.6 70
Shillings/US$, % chge -2.3 -11.5 80
Current Account, US$bn -4.3 -4.0 90
5.7
7.5 100
FX Reserves, US$bn
110
PPP Estimate
120
130
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Kuwaiti Dinar
PPP Estimate
0.32
(M/S&P): Aa2/AA
0.34
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Laos Kip
Kips/US$
PPP Estimate
10500
11000
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Lebanese Pound
PPP Estimate
1650
1700
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Libyan Dinar
Policy: Offical exchange rate pegged
at Ld1 = SDR 0.5175, with a 25%
margin of fluctuation. ICPI - 14/100
Macedonian Denar
average
(per Euro)
2010-2014
Inflation, %
3.1
Denars/euro, % chge
0.5
Current Account, US$bn -0.6
2.4
FX Reserves, US$bn
Kwachas/US$
600
700
800
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: The 35-year old peg was
scrapped on April 2012 in favour of a
managed float. ICPI - 28/100
Policy: Managed float. Currency
devaluation in late June 2016. Oil
dependent economy.
PPP Estimate
Dirham/US$
9.5
10.0
10.5
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
0
200
400
600
800
Kyat/US$
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Spot
average
2010-2014 2015 29.49
Inflation, %
6.8
4.0 22.0
Cordobas/US$, % chge -3.8 -4.7 24.0
Current Account, US$bn -1.0 -1.0
1.8
2.4 26.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Crawling peg. 5% annual US$
depreciation. No significant exchange
or capital controls. ICPI - 26/100
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
10.10
10.13
9.938
Consensus Forecasts*
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
29.65
30.61
32.03
(M/S&P): B2/ B+
Cordobas/US$
PPP Estimate
28.0
30.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
325
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
351.1
368.9
390.9
Naira/US$
PPP Estimate
(M/S&P): B1/B
ICPI - 28/100
375
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Oman Rial
1.05
1.10
1.15
PPP Estimate
1.20
1.25
1.30
Dinars/US$
1.35
A low oil price environment
0.37
average
has raised devaluation risks.
2010-2014 2015 0.38
Inflation, %
2.5
0.0 0.39
Rials/US$
Rials/US$, % chge
0.0 -0.2 0.40
Current Account, US$bn 6.2 -9.8
14.4 17.2 0.41
FX Reserves, US$bn
1.40
1.45
1.50
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts*
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
2015 61.63 61.07
61.07
61.62
3.3 60.0
-0.6 64.0
Denars/Euro
-0.3 68.0
2.2 72.0
Policy: Managed float. Money supply
and rates dictated by the FX target.
(S&P): BB- ICPI - 37/100
500
275
1600
average
2010-2014 2015
Inflation, %
6.1
8.6
Dinars/US$, % chge
1.0 -14.1
Current Account, US$bn 5.7 -7.7
102.5 71.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
400
Consensus Forecasts Nigerian Naira
average
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
2010-2014 2015 314.3
1508
1508
1508
Inflation, %
10.5
9.0 125
-3.8 -8.1 175
Naira/US$, % chge
Pounds/US$
Current Account, US$bn 13.5 -15.4
225
37.2 28.3
FX Reserves, US$bn
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 1508
Inflation, %
4.4 -3.7 1400
L£/US$, % chge
-0.1
0.3 1450
Current Account, US$bn -9.3 -9.3 1500
FX Reserves, US$bn
35.4 38.4 1550
Policy: Managed exchange rate.
Border security issues with Syria.
(M/S&P): B2/B- ICPI - 28/100
PPP Estimate
300
Nicaraguan Cordoba
7500
average
2010-2014 2015 8000
5.7
1.3 8500
Inflation, %
0.0 -0.9 9000
Kip/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -0.4 -0.8 9500
0.7
1.0 10000
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float. Kip is permitted
to move within assigned ranges against
the US$ and Thai baht. ICPI - 30/100
Policy: Pegged to currency basket
weighted according to trade.
(M/S&P): Ba1/BBB- ICPI - 37/100
Consensus Forecasts Myanmarian Kyat
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
2010-2014 2015
0.305
0.307
0.310
5.1 10.7
Inflation, %
Dinars/US$
-64.8 -21.2
Kyat/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -0.7 -1.8
7.3
na
FX Reserves, US$bn
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 0.305
Inflation, %
3.8
3.3 0.26
-0.8 -3.5
Dinars/US$, % chge
6.0 0.28
Current Account, US$bn 60.8
24.0 22.0 0.30
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Pegged to undisclosed currency basket. Oil accounts for around
90% of total exports. ICPI - 41/100
200
Consensus Forecasts Moroccan Dirham
average
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
Spot
2010-2014 2015 10.08
104.0
107.0
106.7
Inflation, %
1.2
1.6 7.5
-1.6 -8.4 8.0
Dirham/US$, % chge
Shillings/US$
Current Account, US$bn -7.5 -1.9 8.5
18.6 21.4 9.0
FX Reserves, US$bn
Kenyan Shilling
Policy: Managed float. Economy dependent on agriculture and tourism.
(M/S&P): B1/B+ ICPI - 26/100
Policy: Heavily managed prior to its
devaluation and shift to a free float
regime in April 2012. ICPI - 31/100
100
76.0
PPP Estimate
80.0
84.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Policy: Pegged at Rials 0.385 =
US$1 since 1986. Oil dependent.
(M/S&P): Baa1/BBB- ICPI - 45/100
0.42
0.43
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Pakistani Rupee
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 104.8
Inflation, %
10.1
2.6 80
85
-3.1 -4.1 90
Rupees/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -2.8 -1.6 95
10.3 17.2 100
FX Reserves, US$bn
105
Policy: Managed float. Border disputes with India. (M/S&P): B3/B
ICPI - 32/100
PPP Estimate
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
106.2
109.1
114.0
Rupees/US$
110
115
PPP Estimate
120
125
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
* Forecasts approximately for 3, 12 and 24 months from survey date
31
FEBRUARY 2017
ADDITIONAL CURRENCIES
Paraguayan Guarani
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 5805
Inflation, Dec/Dec %
4.8
3.1 3750
Guarani/US$, % chge
-0.3 -20.5 4250
Current Account, US$bn 0.0 -0.4 4750
5.0
5.5
FX Reserves, US$bn
5250
Policy: Managed float. Central bank will
intervene to smooth out FX fluctations.
(M/S&P): Ba1/BB ICPI - 30/100
5750
6250
Jan 11
A low oil price environment
Consensus Forecasts UAE Dirham
has raised devaluation risks.
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
3.55
2010-2014 2015
5730
5773
5946
3.60
Inflation, %
1.2
4.1
Guaranis/US$
Dirhams/US$, % chge
0.0
0.0 3.65
Dirhams/US$
Current Account, US$bn 54.1 21.6 3.70
51.6 92.6 3.75
FX Reserves, US$bn
PPP Estimate
Policy: Pegged at D3.67275 = US$1. 3.80
PPP Estimate
Plans for GCC monetary union.
3.85
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
(Moody's): Aa2 ICPI - 66/100
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Saudi Arabian Riyal
Consensus Forecasts
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
3.750
2010-2014 2015 3.751 3.750 3.750
Inflation, % chge
A low oil price environment
4.0
2.2 3.4
Riyals/US$, % chge
0.0 -0.1 3.6 has raised devaluation risks.
Current Account, US$bn 119.9 -53.5 3.8
Riyals/US$
FX Reserves, US$bn
605.6 604.0 4.0
Policy: Pegged at R3.745 = US$1
since 1986. Oil dependent country.
(M/S&P): A1/A- ICPI - 46/100
4.2
4.4
4.6
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Serbian Dinar
(per Euro)
Spot
average
2010-2014 2015 123.9
Inflation, %
6.9
1.4 95
-2.6 -0.7 100
Dinars/Euro, % chge
105
Current Account, US$bn -3.6 -1.8 110
115
13.4
10.7
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float. Serbia proclaimed independence in 2006.
(M/S&P): B1/BB- ICPI - 42/100
PPP Estimate
Spot
average
2010-2014 2015 150.6
Inflation, %
6.1
0.9 100
-3.3 -8.8 110
Rupees/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -2.9 -1.8 120
6.6
6.5 130
FX Reserves, US$bn
150
Rupees/US$
PPP Estimate
160
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Sudanese Pound
average
2010-2014 2015
28.0 52.1
Inflation, %
-15.4 -6.1
Pounds/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -4.0 -5.9
0.3
na
FX Reserves, US$bn
3.0
4.0
Pounds/US$
5.0
6.0
7.0
PPP Estimate
9.0
10.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Tanzanian Shilling
Spot
average
2010-2014 2015 2235
Inflation, %
9.8
5.6 1400
-3.4 -19.0 1600
Shillings/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -4.1 -3.2 1800
3.9
3.9
FX Reserves, US$bn
2000
Policy: Independent float. Agriculture 2200
accounts for the largest portion of
2400
economic output. ICPI - 32/100
Jan 11
Tunisian Dinar
average
2010-2014 2015
Inflation, %
4.8
4.9
-5.0 -8.0
Dinars/US$, % chge
Current Account, US$bn -3.5 -3.9
7.5
6.9
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float. Rate determined
in the interbank market.
(Moody's): Ba3 ICPI - 41/100
PPP Estimate
Policy: Independent float after crawl35.0
ing peg was abandoned in 2002.
(M/S&P): Baa2/BBB
40.0
Inflation target of 3% to 7%.
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 9.990
31.1 64.7 0
Bolivars/US$ (official rate)
Inflation, %
-16.2 -0.3 40
Bs/US$, % chge
US$1= more than Bs3000
in the black market
Current Account, US$bn 6.5 -18.2 80
in January 2017.
5.4
5.1 120
FX Reserves, US$bn
ICPI - 17/100 PPP Estimate
Policy: Complicated FX regime, with 160
(M/S&P): Caa3/CCC
several managed rates. US$ short- 200
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
ages in the economy. Hyper inflation.
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 22645
Inflation, %
9.5
0.9 18500
Dong/US$, % chge
-2.4 -5.1 20500
0.9 22500
Current Account, US$bn 4.5
21.9 27.9 24500
FX Reserves, US$bn
Policy: Managed float. Dong devalued by 7.0% in Feb. 2011.
(M/S&P): B1/BB- ICPI - 33/100
Consensus Forecasts
Yemeni Rial
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
2240
2295
2295
2010-2014 2015
12.0 23.9
Inflation, %
-0.1 -0.1
Rials/US$, % chge
Shillings/US$
Current Account, US$bn -1.1 -0.9
5.3
na
FX Reserves, US$bn
PPP Estimate
Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Policy: Independent float. Rial tumbled in first half of 2010 due to internal
security concerns. ICPI - 14/100
26500
1.4
PPP Estimate
1.6
1.8
2.0
Dinars/US$
2.2
2.4
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
22792 23136 23619
Dong/US$
PPP Estimate
28500
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
200
A low oil price environment
has raised devaluation risks.
220
240
Rials/US$
260
280
300
320
340
PPP Estimate
360
380
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Zambian Kwacha
1.2
Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
92.82
646.6
1573
Vietnamese Dong
2.0
8.0
Policy: Managed float. Devaluation in
November 2013 to bring it closer to its
black market rate. ICPI - 14/100
4000
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Consensus Forecasts
Venezuelan
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
Bolivar (official)
150.0
151.2
155.6
140
Policy: Independent float. Some FX
controls were imposed in 2008.
(M/S&P): B1/B+ ICPI - 36/100
3500
30.0
PPP Estimate
130
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
Sri Lankan Rupee
Policy: Independent float. Rate determined in the interbank market.
(M/S&P): B2/B ICPI - 25/100
Consensus Forecasts Uruguayan Peso
Consensus Forecasts
Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
31.41
32.47
34.77
2010-2014 2015 28.51
117.9
120.4
126.0
Inflation, Dec/Dec %
8.0
9.4
Pesos/US$, % chge
-3.7 -18.1 15.0
ICPI - 71/100
Current Account, US$bn -2.0 -1.9 20.0
Dinars/Euro
Pesos/US$
25.0
12.5 15.2
FX Reserves, US$bn
120
125
-- Consensus Forecasts -Spot
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
average
2010-2014 2015 3583
3622
3730
3632
9.6
5.2 2000
Inflation, %
Shillings/US$
-3.5 -17.5
Shillings/US$, % chge
2500
Current Account, US$bn -2.0 -2.3
2.8
2.8 3000
FX Reserves, US$bn
PPP Estimate
Ugandan Shilling
average
Spot
2010-2014 2015 9.890
Inflation, %
7.3 10.0 4.0
Kwachas/US$, % chge -5.6 -41.6 6.0
Current Account, US$bn 0.6 -1.5
8.0
2.1
2.5
FX Reserves, US$bn
Consensus Forecasts
3 mth 12 mth 24 mth
10.60
11.16
11.22
PPP Estimate
10.0
Policy: Managed float. Kwacha
redenominated in Jan. 2013.
(M/S&P): B3/B ICPI - 38/100
Kwachas/US$
12.0
14.0
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
32
FEBRUARY 2017
HEDGING USING FORWARD EXCHANGE RATES
In managing its foreign exchange exposure a firm must first consider the nature
of its operations and the types of exposure which result. It must then examine
those exposures in the light of its overall
financial objectives and risk tolerance.
In the course of this examination it may
discover that it has economic, accounting translation or transaction exposures,
and it may also wish to consider the
exposures of its principal international
competitors.
Once foreign exchange exposures have
been identified and gauged in terms of
magnitude, the time over which they will
prevail and risk, managers will wish to
consider hedging techniques. The four
most common alternatives are:
– remain
unhedged (or partly
unhedged);
– hedge in the forward market, through
entering into contracts with banks,
or hedge in the futures market by
entering into contracts traded on exchanges;
– hedge in the money market, by borrowing in one currency, converting
to another and depositing or investing the proceeds; the hedging cost
will thus reflect the difference between borrowing and re-investment
rates; and
– hedge in the options market, by purchasing puts or calls.
In recent years other techniques including currency swaps or active use of
leads and lags have also been brought
to bear, and more elaborate contractual
or derivative hedges combining some
of the above have also come into regular practice. The choice among the various alternatives will depend both on
their cost and on their perceived risk.
In considering whether to remain
unhedged or to enter into a forward
contract, a comparison of the consensus forecast (or an individual forecast)
with a forward exchange rate may be a
useful starting point. The rates in the
table above are as at our February 13,
2017 survey date.
Comparison of Consensus Exchange Rate Forecasts
and Forward Foreign Exchange Rates at February 13, 2017
Currency Against
the US$
In 3
mths
In 12
mths
Canadian dollar
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
1.309
1.356
1.306
1.351
1.301
Euro
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
1.061
1.047
1.061
1.051
1.076
Japanese yen
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
113.9
115.5
114.3
117.2
112.5
UK pound
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
1.250
1.206
1.243
1.197
1.254
Norwegian krone *
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
8.382
8.471
8.364
8.312
8.331
Swedish krona *
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
8.931
9.020
8.886
8.802
8.745
Swiss franc *
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
1.005
1.023
1.000
1.025
0.981
South African rand - Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
13.34
14.06
13.41
14.23
14.07
Chinese renminbi
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
6.878
7.066
6.903
7.259
6.984
Singaporean dollar - Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
1.423
1.478
1.417
South Korean won
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
1152
1.460
1.418
.
1195
1139
Thai baht
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
35.06
35.96
34.98
36.24
35.09
Mexican peso
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
20.32
21.55
20.52
21.69
21.40
Peruvian sol
- Consensus Forecast
- Forward Rate
3.265
3.423
3.292
3.469
3.396
1200
1142
* Original forecasts against the euro, converted using consensus forecasts for US$/euro.
Feb
2017
1.28
1.26
US$ per UK£
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
1.22
1.20
Nov
Dec
Forward Rate
1.24
1.18
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
Feb. 13
Spot Rate
US$ per UK£
Consensus Forecast
Jan
2018
Feb
33
CROSS RATE FORECASTS
FEBRUARY 2017
In the tables below, we show spot and consensus forecast cross-rates for most of the major currencies. For the main Asia/
Pacific currencies (below right) we show rates against the Japanese yen, Chinese renminbi and the US dollar. For the
eastern and western European currencies (below) we show cross rates against both the euro and the US dollar. The
triangular table (bottom left) shows cross rates between the G-7, Brazilian, Chinese and Mexican currencies. Latest rates
are those that prevailed at the close of trading on this month's survey date.
Eastern European
Consensus Forecasts
vs US$
Czech
koruna
Hungarian
forint
Polish
zloty
Russian
rouble
Western European
Consensus Forecasts
vs Euro
vs US$
vs Euro
7.011
7.436
25.48
27.02
Latest
25.59
26.80
End May 2017
7.118
7.455
24.95
26.22
End Feb. 2018
7.098
7.458
23.92
25.62
End Feb. 2019
6.973
290.8
308.4
Latest
299.0
313.2
295.4
296.8
Asia/Pacific Consensus Forecasts
vs US$ vs Yen vs renminbi (rmb per unit 1)
(¥ per unit 1)
0.764
87.04
5.256
Latest
0.728
84.13
5.146
End May 2017
0.708
82.95
5.138
End Feb. 2018
7.469
0.720
85.02
5.238
End Feb. 2019
8.382
8.890
7.759
14.68
0.886
Latest
End May 2017
8.471
8.872
7.777
14.86
0.909
End May 2017
310.4
End Feb. 2018
8.312
8.733
7.780
15.06
0.933
End Feb. 2018
317.9
End Feb. 2019
8.598
7.782
15.18
0.935
End Feb. 2019
4.069
4.315
Latest
8.931
9.472
67.00
1.700
0.103
Latest
4.176
4.374
End May 2017
9.020
9.447
68.63
1.683
0.103
End May 2017
4.150
4.360
End Feb. 2018
8.802
9.248
69.31
1.691
0.105
End Feb. 2018
4.024
4.310
End Feb. 2019
8.393
8.989
69.30
1.705
0.105
End Feb. 2019
58.09
61.61
Latest
1.005
1.066
13327
117.0
1938
Latest
60.66
63.53
End May 2017
1.023
1.072
13564
117.4
1920
End May 2017
61.55
64.67
End Feb. 2018
1.025
1.077
13723
117.1
1890
End Feb. 2018
62.62
67.07
End Feb. 2019
1.023
1.096
13423
113.6
1844
End Feb. 2019
4.449
25.61
1.546
Latest
4.488
25.74
1.575
End May 2017
4.514
25.96
1.608
End Feb. 2018
4.452
26.53
1.635
End Feb. 2019
0.716
81.61
4.928
Latest
0.692
79.97
4.891
End May 2017
0.674
78.99
4.892
End Feb. 2018
0.690
81.47
5.020
End Feb. 2019
1.423
80.03
4.832
Latest
1.460
79.14
4.840
End May 2017
1.478
79.29
4.911
End Feb. 2018
End Feb. 2019
8.027
Danish
krone
Australian
dollar
(US$ per A$)
Norwegian
krone
Hong Kong
dollar
Swedish
krona
Indian
rupee
Swiss
franc
Indonesian
rupiah1
Malaysian
ringgit
G-7, Brazil, China and Mexico Cross Rate Consensus Forecasts
UK pound
Latest
End May 2017
1.151
End Feb. 2018
1.139
End Feb. 2019
The cross rate forecasts set out in
the triangular table below are
calculated as the amount of a
currency at the end of a row that
buys one unit of the currency at the
head of the appropriate column.
1.179
Euro
1.151
Latest
1.250
1.061
New Zealand
dollar
(US$ per NZ$)
End May 2017
1.206
1.047
End Feb. 2018
1.197
1.051
End Feb. 2019
1.232
1.071
1.448
81.59
5.027
1.388
1.309
1152
10.10
167.5
Latest
1195
10.31
169.1
End May 2017
1200
10.20
165.4
End Feb. 2018
End Feb. 2019
Latest
1.636
Singaporean
Dollar
US dollar
End May 2017
1.635
1.421
1.356
End Feb. 2018
1.617
1.419
1.351
End Feb. 2019
1.604
1.394
1.301
Latest
3.895
3.304
3.116
Canadian
dollar
South Korean
won1
1168
9.901
160.5
2.381
31.02
3.673
0.222
Latest
32.28
3.578
0.219
End May 2017
32.30
3.628
0.225
End Feb. 2018
31.70
3.727
0.230
End Feb. 2019
35.06
3.249
0.196
Latest
35.96
3.213
0.197
End May 2017
36.24
3.234
0.200
End Feb. 2018
35.65
3.314
0.204
End Feb. 2019
End May 2017
4.025
3.496
3.338
2.461
End Feb. 2018
4.142
3.635
3.459
2.561
End Feb. 2019
4.520
3.929
3.668
2.819
Taiwanese
dollar
Brazlian
real
Latest
8.599
7.295
6.878
5.256
2.208
End May 2017
8.520
7.400
7.066
5.210
2.117
End Feb. 2018
8.691
7.627
7.259
5.375
2.098
End Feb. 2019
8.970
7.796
7.278
5.593
1.984
Thai
baht
Chinese
renminbi
Latest
25.40
21.55
20.32
15.53
6.521
2.954
End May 2017
25.99
22.57
21.55
15.89
6.457
3.050
End Feb. 2018
25.97
22.79
21.69
16.06
6.270
2.988
End Feb. 2019
25.28
21.97
20.51
15.76
5.592
2.818
Mexican
peso
Latest
142.4
120.8
113.9
87.05
36.56
16.56
5.607
End May 2017
139.3
121.0
115.5
85.18
34.61
16.35
5.361
End Feb. 2018
140.3
123.1
117.2
86.77
33.88
16.14
5.403
End Feb. 2019
145.6
126.5
118.1
90.77
32.20
16.23
5.759
1
Currencies shaded in purple above
(i.e. the Indonesian rupiah and South
Korean won) are measured as units
per ¥ or rmb.
Japanese
yen
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
34
FEBRUARY 2017
LONG-TERM FORECASTS
In addition to their regular forecasts, this month we asked our panellists for their longer term projections until the end of 2023.
The resulting consensus end-period forecasts have then been interpolated to provide period average estimates.
* 2016 end year and annual average figures represent actual outturns.
G-7, Western Europe and South Africa
Forecasts vs US Dollar
2016 *
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Euro
(US$/€)
end year
annual average
1.055
1.106
1.050
1.052
1.068
1.058
1.141
1.104
1.187
1.164
1.195
1.191
1.224
1.209
1.245
1.235
Japanese yen
end year
annual average
116.6
108.6
116.8
115.5
118.0
117.5
115.3
116.6
115.6
115.4
119.9
117.7
120.3
120.1
119.3
119.8
UK pound
(US$/£)
end year
annual average
1.236
1.353
1.199
1.213
1.227
1.210
1.350
1.288
1.438
1.394
1.425
1.431
1.457
1.441
1.478
1.467
Canadian dollar
(C$/US$)
end year
annual average
1.341
1.325
1.352
1.344
1.310
1.334
1.256
1.283
1.221
1.238
1.192
1.206
1.169
1.180
1.150
1.159
South African rand
end year
annual average
13.68
14.68
14.19
13.95
14.12
14.18
13.35
13.73
13.87
13.61
14.42
14.14
15.14
14.78
15.84
15.49
Danish krone
end year
annual average
7.436
7.445
7.457
7.451
7.467
7.461
7.479
7.473
7.470
7.475
7.509
7.490
7.558
7.533
7.592
7.575
Norwegian krone
end year
annual average
9.079
9.288
8.764
8.858
8.620
8.688
8.483
8.552
8.383
8.433
8.250
8.317
8.220
8.235
8.237
8.228
Swedish krona
end year
annual average
9.582
9.465
9.292
9.422
9.033
9.162
8.884
8.958
8.800
8.842
8.766
8.783
8.739
8.753
8.714
8.726
Swiss franc
end year
annual average
1.072
1.090
1.076
1.072
1.093
1.083
1.053
1.073
1.050
1.051
1.127
1.089
1.130
1.128
1.130
1.130
Forecasts vs Euro
Eastern Europe
Forecasts vs US Dollar
2016 *
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Israeli shekel
end year
annual average
3.849
3.839
3.813
3.804
3.768
3.793
3.846
3.807
3.820
3.833
3.804
3.812
3.803
3.804
3.807
3.805
Russian rouble
end year
annual average
61.04
66.89
61.35
60.52
62.44
61.90
61.34
61.89
62.06
61.70
63.06
62.56
64.20
63.63
65.30
64.75
Turkish lira
end year
annual average
3.518
3.016
3.804
3.762
3.901
3.850
3.677
3.789
3.617
3.647
3.594
3.606
3.629
3.612
3.691
3.660
Ukrainian hryvnia
end year
annual average
27.10
25.54
28.31
27.75
29.03
28.71
27.74
28.39
27.41
27.58
25.68
26.55
25.56
25.62
25.28
25.42
Czech koruna
end year
annual average
27.02
27.03
26.34
26.74
25.72
26.02
25.65
25.69
25.48
25.57
25.35
25.42
25.28
25.32
25.25
25.27
Hungarian forint
end year
annual average
308.9
311.4
311.0
311.5
316.6
313.0
314.2
315.4
317.1
315.6
319.0
318.0
319.9
319.4
320.0
319.9
Polish zloty
end year
annual average
4.403
4.363
4.363
4.362
4.319
4.343
4.245
4.282
4.115
4.180
4.076
4.095
4.063
4.070
4.062
4.063
Romanian leu
end year
annual average
4.543
4.491
4.542
4.518
4.532
4.542
4.422
4.477
4.541
4.482
4.558
4.550
4.575
4.567
4.592
4.584
Forecasts vs Euro
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
* 2016 end year and annual average figures represent actual outturns.
35
FEBRUARY 2017
LONG-TERM FORECASTS
* 2016 end year and annual average figures represent actual outturns.
Asia/Pacific
Forecasts vs US Dollar
2016 *
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Australian dollar
(US$/A$)
end year
annual average
0.724
0.744
0.712
0.730
0.718
0.712
0.736
0.727
0.750
0.743
0.754
0.752
0.766
0.760
0.775
0.771
Chinese renminbi
end year
annual average
6.950
6.642
7.216
7.062
7.275
7.262
7.044
7.160
6.872
6.958
6.685
6.779
6.542
6.614
6.407
6.475
Hong Kong dollar
end year
annual average
7.753
7.763
7.779
7.772
7.782
7.781
7.756
7.769
7.756
7.756
7.756
7.756
7.756
7.756
7.755
7.756
Indian rupee
end year (December)
annual average
67.87
67.19
69.16
68.52
69.30
69.29
68.66
68.98
68.32
68.49
67.76
68.04
67.72
67.74
67.71
67.71
Indonesian rupiah
end year
annual average
13473
13305
13688
13546
13473
13616
13336
13405
13195
13266
13021
13108
12828
12925
12695
12762
Malaysian ringgit
end year
annual average
4.486
4.142
4.508
4.481
4.462
4.492
4.385
4.424
4.271
4.328
4.146
4.208
4.037
4.091
3.956
3.996
New Zealand dollar
(US$/NZ$)
end year
annual average
0.694
0.698
0.678
0.694
0.687
0.680
0.684
0.685
0.692
0.688
0.705
0.698
0.706
0.706
0.711
0.708
Philippine peso
end year
annual average
49.71
47.48
50.22
50.11
49.35
49.85
48.32
48.84
47.53
47.92
46.94
47.23
46.41
46.68
46.11
46.26
Singapore dollar
end year
annual average
1.445
1.381
1.474
1.455
1.453
1.467
1.420
1.437
1.396
1.408
1.365
1.380
1.338
1.352
1.316
1.327
South Korean won
end year
annual average
1208
1160
1199
1189
1174
1189
1166
1170
1146
1156
1131
1138
1117
1124
1110
1114
Taiwanese dollar
end year
annual average
32.23
32.25
32.30
32.06
31.80
32.09
31.57
31.69
31.07
31.32
30.59
30.83
30.24
30.41
30.03
30.13
Thai baht
end year
annual average
35.81
35.30
36.18
35.84
35.75
36.03
35.58
35.66
35.19
35.38
34.93
35.06
34.67
34.80
34.59
34.63
Latin America
Forecasts vs US Dollar
2016 *
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Argentinian peso
end year
annual average
15.83
14.75
17.53
16.57
18.85
18.23
19.06
18.95
19.68
19.37
20.30
19.99
20.77
20.54
21.24
21.01
Brazilian real
end year
annual average
3.245
3.480
3.432
3.319
3.633
3.529
3.690
3.662
3.816
3.753
3.912
3.864
3.959
3.936
4.005
3.982
Chilean peso
end year
annual average
669.8
676.3
679.0
671.5
665.6
673.7
640.6
653.1
626.5
633.5
615.4
620.9
609.2
612.3
605.2
607.2
Colombian peso
end year
annual average
3002
3051
3105
3039
3032
3080
3003
3017
3017
3010
3012
3015
3021
3017
3036
3028
Mexican peso
end year
annual average
20.60
18.67
21.66
21.41
20.71
21.28
19.87
20.29
19.95
19.91
19.65
19.80
20.31
19.98
20.95
20.63
Peruvian sol
end year
annual average
3.353
3.375
3.459
3.404
3.550
3.502
3.561
3.555
3.591
3.576
3.601
3.596
3.549
3.575
3.565
3.557
Venezuelan bolivar
end year
annual average
9.995
9.413
523.5
113.9
1418
920.4
5471
3445
9798
7635
14464
12131
17975
16219
19841
18908
* 2016 end year and annual average figures represent actual outturns.
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
International Corruption Perceptions Index (ICPI)
(recently calculated by Transparency International for 2016)
The International Corruption Perceptions Index (ICPI) is an aggregated indicator, computed from thirteen different
independent data sources that capture perceptions from countries around the world. Each ICPI reading is accompanied
by a standard error and confidence interval – much like the high, low and standard deviations shown in the Consensus
Forecast – to illustrate variations or risk in the underlying data that make up the Index. The ICPI index, expressed as a
proportion of 100, can be found in the background data boxes of the currencies we feature (major currencies ranked
below) and used as a comparative guide for perceptions of corruption. The ICPI measures countries on a scale of ‘0’ to
‘100’, where a ‘100’ equals the lowest level of perceived corruption and ‘0’ equals highest.
Denmark
New Zealand
Finland
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
Singapore
Netherlands
Canada
Germany
United Kingdom
Australia
Belgium
90/100
90/100
89/100
88/100
86/100
85/100
84/100
83/100
82/100
81/100
81/100
79/100
77/100
Hong Kong
Austria
United States
Ireland
Japan
France
Chile
Israel
Poland
Portugal
Taiwan
Spain
Czech Republic
77/100
75/100
74/100
73/100
72/100
69/100
66/100
64/100
62/100
62/100
61/100
58/100
55/100
South Korea
Malaysia
Hungary
Romania
Italy
South Africa
Greece
Turkey
Brazil
China
India
Colombia
Indonesia
53/100
49/100
48/100
48/100
47/100
45/100
44/100
41/100
40/100
40/100
40/100
37/100
37/100
36/100
35/100
35/100
35/100
30/100
29/100
29/100
17/100
Argentina
Peru
Philippines
Thailand
Mexico
Russia
Ukraine
Venezuela
ICPI readings for 56 smaller
countries can be found on pages
28-31 of Foreign Exchange
Consensus Forecasts.
Full details about ICPI index statistics can be obtained from the Transparency International website (www.transparency.org).
High levels of perceived corruption and poor public sector governance can undermine institutions and affect the ability of
nations and currencies to attract long-term investment. The situation is most acute when income is less than spending
and the shortfall is funded by a higher ratio of short-term capital. In such cases, a sudden, sharp reversal in international
sentiment could put a country under financial strain and expose its currency to risks.
No country is, of course, entirely free of corruption, which in effect represents a ‘dirty tax’ on society. However, what we have
found striking is the large number of countries that have perceived corruption index ratings below 50 (18 out of the 47
covered above). Clearly, poor public sector governance remains a significant problem, which can undermine growth and
create a significant obstacle to financial stability. We show in the charts below a few countries with low ICPI readings. In
each case, they have struggled to maintain a stable exchange rate over time.
Venzuelan Bolivar (page 31)
Survey Date Consensus
Spot Rate 12m Forecast
9.990
646.59
% Change
From Spot
-98.5%
Ukrainian Hryvnia (page 27)
Survey Date Consensus
Spot Rate 12m Forecast
27.44
28.51
% Change
From Spot
-3.8%
Egyptian Pound (page 29)
Survey Date Consensus
Spot Rate 12m Forecast
17.650
19.078
% Change
From Spot
-7.5%
Bolivars/US$ (official rate)
0.0
5
4.0
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 16.60)
20.0
40.0
Pounds/US$
6.0
10
8.0
60.0
10.0
15
80.0
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 164.8)
100.0
ICPI - 29/100
20
14.0
120.0
Hryvnias/US$
140.0
ICPI - 17/100
Jan 14 Jan 15
ICPI - 36/100
18.0
30
Jan 12 Jan 13
16.0
25
160.0
180.0
Jan 11
PPP Estimate
(Latest: 9.35)
12.0
Jan 16 Jan 17
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17
20.0
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
Jan 15
Jan 16
Jan 17
Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts® is available at US$798 or £538 or €728 for 12 monthly issues.
For prices and descriptions of all our publications and other regional products and services – including a range
of electronic delivery options – visit our website: www.consensuseconomics.com, or contact us at
[email protected].
Consensus Economics Inc.
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom. Tel (44 20) 7491 3211; Fax (44 20) 7409 2331.

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