J X ournal e press Volume 4 ＃12, August 26, 2009 Headlines ＊＊＊＊＊＊＊ Journal Express は、通常 1-2 ページの Headlines とこれに続く本文との 2 部構成になっています。 Headlines 頁の各記事から或いは pdf 機能「しおり」の項目から本文へ直接リンクします。＊＊＊＊＊＊＊米国のアフリカ成長機会法に期待はずれアフリカ成長機会法（AGOA）として知られている米国の対アフリカ貿易プログラムは開始から 10 年になるが、その潜在力にもかかわらず結果は期待はずれであった。このプログラムの目的は、アフリカ諸国の製造基盤の多角化、ひいては健全な市場経済の創出であったが、短期間のブームに終わり、継続性に欠けていて成功したとは言えない。 Africa Trade Pact Seen as Letdown (Japan Times, August 7, 2009, p 10) インド、世銀の資本拡大をG20 に要求インドは、世界銀行が特にインフラへの融資を増額できるよう、世銀の資本を増額する承認を G20 各国政府に対して求めるつもりである。 India to Push for Expansion of World Bank Capital (Business Standard (New Delhi) online, August 21, 2009) 世銀総裁、アフリカの紛争国視察考世界銀行総裁のゼーリック氏は 8 月半ば、コンゴ民主共和国、ルワンダ、ウガンダへの 5 日間の視察を行った。ゼーリック総裁は、紛争国の再建と復興へ自信を示し、その枠組みは良いガバナンスと法の統治のもと作られるべきであると表明した。 World Bank Pledges Support for African Post-Conflict Recovery (World Bank press release, August 11, 2009) Zoellick Urges Rule of Law, Good Governance in Post-Conflict Reconstruction (World Bank press release, August 13, 2009) African Caucus、世銀・IMFでの発言力要求アフリカ諸国の財務大臣と中央銀行総裁で構成される African Caucus はシエラレオネの首都フリータウンで年次集会を開催し、世界銀行と国際通貨基金（IMF）での発言力の強化を要求した。 Africa Eyes Stronger Representation in IMF, World Bank (Agence France Presse online, August 12, 2009) シンクタンク・雑誌情報：開発援助の理論的・実践的考察 Thoughts from the think tanks and the journals of opinion: Review of Development Economics 誌[Blackwell 刊]の特別号は、開発援助分野における最近の理論的、実践的な思考について論じる 11 本の論文を発表した。その内容は、同分野で過去 10 年に起きた主要な変化に対応している。 Development Aid: Theory, Policies and Performance (George Mavrotas, ed., Review of Development Economics, August 2009) 焦点：アジアの深刻な水利問題 Issues in Focus: Water in Asia アジアの水利の問題は、現在、また将来にかけて重大な問題となりつつある。この状況に関して、最近ストックホルムで開催された「 2009 年世界水週間」会議で議論され、国連食糧農業機関（ FAO ）と Water Management Institute の共同レポートで分析されている。（続） 1 会議情報：移住と開発に関する第2回国際会議 Meetings and Conferences: 移住分野でトップレベルの研究者や学者が米ワシントン DC に集まり、移住と開発に関する最新の研究成果の発表や、最重要事項についての議論が行われる。 Second International Conference on Migration and Development (September 10-11, 2009, Washington, D.C.) ポスト「京都議定書」最新情報：主要排出途上国の交渉スタンス Kyoto Protocol Update: 米シンクタンク Center for Global Development が発表したワーキングペーパーでは、気候変動に関して、 CO2 の主要排出途上国が公式に表明してきた交渉のスタンスが述べられている。京都議定書にかわる合意形成に達するためには途上国の参加が必須となる。 High Stakes in a Complex Game: A Snapshot of the Climate Change Negotiating Positions of Major Developing Country Emitters (By Jan van de Goltz, Center for Global Development, August 2009) 出版情報：経済成長の人工光度予測 Publications and Reports: 米ブラウン大学の経済学者は、信頼できる統計データが手に入らない国では夜間に発出される人工光が経済成長を測る代理データとして有用であるとしている。理論としては、人工光の強度は所得レベルを反映し、ひいては経済成長を示唆するとしている。 Measuring Economic Growth From Outer Space (By Vernon Henderson, Adam Storeygard and David N. Weil) 注！ IMFのアフリカ統計改善支援 Note! 国際通貨基金（IMF）の統計部は、主要統計データの質、範囲、普及度を改善するために、アフリカの 22 ｶ国を援助する 3 ｶ年プログラムに着手した。 IMF Builds Statistical Capacity in Africa (IMFSurvey Magazine, August 11, 2009) 2 http://dakis.fasid.or.jp/ Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development (財)国際開発高等教育機構 al Je o up rn re s s X Volume 4, Issue 12, August 26, 2009 Africa trade pact seen as letdown Japan Times, August 7, 2009, p 10 After a decade of implementation, the US-Africa trade program known as AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) has not lived up to its potential. The program, introduced by the Clinton administration in 2000, allows duty-free import into the United States of some 6400 products and goods from 39 sub-Saharan African countries. The purported intent of the program was to help countries diversify their manufacturing bases and create healthy market economies, but its failure is apparent in Kenya which had been expected to be a major beneficiary. After a brief boom, during which new factories were built and thousands of new jobs were created, sales declined, factories closed, and workers were let go. Today Kenya ships only 20 products under AGOA, largely apparel, flowers and coffee. There are several reasons for AGOA’s lack of success: One is the shift in the textile export market in favor of China that came in 2005, with the end of the multifibre arrangement (MFA) of textile export quotas. Another is the growing share of Africa’s export industries controlled by foreign interests that repatriate profits. Another is AGOA’s concentration in petroleum exports to the US; in 2008 more than 92% of the $66 billion in AGOA exports were petroleum products, mostly from Nigeria, Angola and Congo DR. Although overall disappointing, the program has brought some lasting benefits: Foreign investment, despite the repatriation of profits, has brought advanced technologies and international-standard manufacturing practices. Furthermore, many of the newly created jobs remain, and due to auditing by US buyers they provide decent salaries and benefits in a good working environment. India to push for expansion of World Bank capital Business Standard (New Delhi) online, August 21, 2009 India will push G20 governments to approve an increase in World Bank capitalization so the organization can raise its level of lending, especially for infrastructure. The subject will be raised at the September 4-5 London meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors and at the subsequent September 24-25 Pittsburgh summit meeting of G20 leaders. Capitalization of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already been enhanced through the sale of some of its gold stock. 3 World Bank Pledges Support for African Post-Conflict Recovery World Bank press release, August 11, 2009 Zoellick Urges Rule of Law, Good Governance in Post-Conflict Reconstruction World Bank press release, August 13, 2009 World Bank president Robert Zoellick undertook a 5-day (August 9-13) tour through 3 African nations to familiarize himself directly with the situation in Africa’s Great Lakes area and also to highlight opportunities for private investment. As sub-Saharan Africa is off-track to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, the trip was intended also to encourage increased donor support. Two of the countries visited by the World Bank president, Congo DR and Rwanda, are struggling with post-conflict adjustments, while the third, Uganda, is relatively stable and successful. Mr. Zoellick voiced optimism about post-conflict recovery and reconstruction, especially programs to support and re-integrate demobilized combatants; but he urged that good governance and the rule of law provide the post-conflict framework. Sub-Saharan Africa is the World Bank’s top priority region and the largest recipient of its development assistance. In fiscal year 2009, which ended June 30, the Bank increased its lending to countries in the region by 36%, to $9.9 billion (Daily Monitor Uganda online, August 14, 2009): $7.8 billion from IDA, 56% of its commitments $1.7 billion from IFC $362 million from IBRD $50.1 million in guarantees from MIGA The Bank’s intensified aid was spurred by concern at damage to very vulnerable economies from the global financial crisis, despite early suppositions that Africa generally was too far on the periphery of the global economy to be seriously impacted. Africa’s impressive growth over the past decade of 5%-6% has been slowed by the international financial downturn; but Mr. Zoellick concluded his visit by voicing confidence that with support from donors, the 21st Century is the century for African development (Thomson Reuters online, August 13, 2009). Africa eyes stronger representation in IMF, World Bank Agence France Presse online, August 12, 2009 Africa’s role in the global economy was addressed at the August 12-13 annual meeting in Freetown, Sierra Leone of the African Caucus. The Caucus is a grouping of finance ministers and central bank governors of African World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) member countries. It was formed following the 2002 Financing for Development (FfD) Conference in Monterrey, Mexico. The Caucus countries are “demanding” stronger representation in the two Bretton Woods organizations and are preparing documents for presentation at the Bank/IMF annual meeting in Istanbul, Turkey in October. 4 thoughts from the think tanks and the journals of opinion Development Aid: Theory, Policies and Performance George Mavrotas, ed., Review of Development Economics, August 2009 A special issue of Review of Development Economics offers current theoretical and practical thinking in the development assistance field. Most of the 11 papers included were presented at a UNU-WIDER conference entitled Aid: Principles, Policies and Performance, held in Helsinki in June, 2006. In his introduction, editor George Mavrotas explains the importance of the subject. The past decade has seen major changes in international development assistance: from adoption of the MDGs in 2000 to the Financing for Development (FfD) conference in 2002 to the Paris Declaration on Air Effectiveness of 2005 and on to associated conferences and agreements in subsequent years. The contents of this journal respond to many of these changes. The papers following the introduction are divided generally into two parts: papers 2-5 are theoretical contributions to a broad range of development aid topics; papers 6-11 focus on performance-related matters as well as some policy concerns; as follows: “Poverty and Governance: The Contest for Aid,” by Gil Epstein and Ira Gang “Foreign Aid, Infrastructure Development and Welfare: An Intertemporal Analysis,” by Slobodan Djajic “Foreign Aid as Prize: Incentives for a Pro-Poor Policy,” by Tejashree Sayanak and Sajal Lahiri “On the Non-Contractual Nature of Donor-Recipient Interaction in Development Assistance,” by S. Mansoob Murshed “Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?,” by Paul Collier and Benedikt Goderis “Aid, Volatility and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When It Does Not,” by Lisa Chauvet and Patrick Guillaumont “Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa,” by Christopher Adam, Stephen O’Connell, Edward Buffie, and Catherine Pattillo “The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience,” by Mumtaz Hussain, Andrew Berg, and Shekkar Aiyar “Aid Effectiveness: Looking at the Aid-Social Capital-Growth Nexus,” by Mina Baliamoune-Lutz and George Mavrotas “Aid, Economic Reform and the Public Sector,” by Mark McGillivray The special issue is available under subscription or by purchase at http://www.wider.unu.edu/publications/books-and-journals/2009/en_GB/RDE13-3_1/ Information on the 2006 conference is available at http://www.wider.unu.edu/research/projects-by-theme/development-andfinance/en_GB/conference-aid-principles-policies/ 5 issue in focus focus on water in Asia Water availability in Asia, now and in the future, threatens to be a major problem. The situation has recently been discussed at an international water conference and written about in a new report. August 16-22 was World Water Week (WWW) 2009, the annual meeting convened to discuss the planet’s urgent waterrelated issues. Experts from around the world gathered in Stockholm, Sweden to exchange ideas, develop new ones and consider solutions to water problems. The event was organized by the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI). The comprehensive agenda included some 115 items, ranging from sanitation and hand washing to water governance. An August 18 seminar titled “Eye on Asia” featured four events: Accessing Urban Water Supplies and Improving Sanitation Facing Up to Climate Change Impacts and Costs Advances in River Basin Management in Asia Panel Dialogue: Political Leadership is Essential The water situation in Asia is deteriorating and scientists warn that without urgent improvement in water management, the region faces devastating food shortages. A case in point is offered by India, where this year the monsoon is falling short and ground water is being seriously depleted. Experts blame government water-pricing policies that have encouraged overuse rather than providing incentives for conservation (Financial Times, August 10, 2009, p 3 and August 13, 2009, p 4). At the start of the WWW sessions, a joint Food and Agricultural Organization/Water Management Institute (FAO/WMI) report was presented stressing the importance to agriculture in Asia of improving irrigation practices. It is essential that irrigation be “revitalized to unlock its potential” because output from existing cultivated areas must be increased if food needs are to be met and environmental degradation is to be reversed. Alternative means for increasing the food supply – importation or expansion of rain-fed agriculture – are unrealistic. The keys to irrigation revitalization are straightforward: more efficient, betterregulated systems; more involvement by the private sector in water management; and more education about and investment in water programs. The Asia region can expect an additional 150 million mouths to feed by 2050. Asia contains 70% of total global irrigated land and the productivity of this land must be increased. Information on World Water Week is available at http://www.worldwaterweek.org/ The FAO/WMI report “Revitalizing Asia’s Agriculture” is available at http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Other/PDF/Revitalizing%20Asia%27s%20Irrig ation.pdf 6 Meetings and Conferences Second International Conference on Migration and Development September 10-11, 2009, Washington, D.C. Top researchers and academics in the field of migration will gather in Washington, D.C. to present the latest findings and discuss the most important questions regarding migration and development: ■ What effect do remittances have on poverty, inequality and economic development? ■ Who migrates overseas and is it worth their while? ■ How do remittances impact investment and consumption? ■ What factors drive the cost of remittances? ■ Does migration reduce educational attainment? ■ Do migrants improve governments at home? ■ What are the links between brain drain, fiscal competition and public education expenditure? The conference is being hosted jointly by the World Bank Migration and Development Program and the Agence Française de Développement. Information on the conference is available at http://go.worldbank.org/758WOS27Y0 High Stakes in a Complex Game: A Snapshot of the Climate Change Negotiating Positions of Major Developing Country Emitters By Jan van de Goltz, Center for Global Development, August 2009 The participation of developing countries will be essential if a climate change agreement is to be reached at the coming UNFCCC conference in Copenhagen in December. China has recently announced its decision on when its CO2 emissions will begin to decline – in 2050 (Financial Times, August 15-16, 2009, p 1). This working paper, prepared by a consultant at the Washington-based Center for Global Development (CGD), presents the negotiating positions on climatechange related issues that have been publicly adopted by the “major” developing country emitters -- Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico and South Africa. The issues include burden sharing, monitoring and implementation. On each issue, the paper first identifies areas of agreement among the countries, and then analyzes key open questions. The paper is available at http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1422602/ 7 publications and reports Measuring Economic Growth From Outer Space By Vernon Henderson, Adam Storeygard and David N. Weil Economic growth data on countries with poor statistical capacity can have such a high margin of error -30%-40% -- that it is of little use. Now, three economists from Brown University suggest a proxy: data on the nighttime emission of artificial light. Their theory is that the intensity of artificial light indicates income level, and therefore economic growth. “[C]onsumption of nearly all goods in the evening requires lights. As income rises, so does light usage per person, in both consumption activities and many investment activities.” Light emission information is collected regularly by orbiting US Air Force weather satellites. The economists incorporate it as supplemental data into a model which they then apply to 36 countries with the lowest quality income data. The resulting estimates of growth can differ substantially from established estimates; i.e., the World Bank World Development Indicators. For Example, for the period 1992/93-2002/03, the incorporated light index for Myanmar yields a growth rate of about 5.8% while the WDI gives 8.3%; for Congo DR, by contrast, the incorporated light index yields growth of －.08%,while the WDI gives －2.6%. (The authors also found that “more rain is correlated with fewer nights of light data;” however, controlling for the number of nights of light data had little effect on results.) “Night lights,” as they call the phenomenon, have the additional advantage of being applicable to sub-national units for which GDP data is not collected, such as cities. As a separate exercise, the paper also explores the dynamic between economies of Africa’s urban areas and their rural hinterlands to understand whether increases in local agricultural productivity contribute to urban growth. The paper is available at http://www.econ.brown.edu/students/adam_storeygard/HSWLightsr072109.pdf IMF Builds Statistical Capacity in Africa IMFSurvey Magazine, August 11, 2009 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Statistics Department has undertaken a 3-year program to help 22 African countries improve the quality, coverage and dissemination of key statistics. The $8 million project, funded by UKAid (formerly DFID) and implemented jointly by the IMF and the World Bank, will be completed September 30, 2009. Information on the program is available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/CAR081109B.htm 8