Consumer insights Jonathan Banks Tuesday 20 October 8:00 – 8:30 Special thanks to [email protected] +44 (0)7764 635379 Consumer insights •The economic downturn •Grocery issues •Consumer issues? 140 Consumer confidence index 130 120 Norway 110 100 Global USA 90 80 EU big 5 70 60 Japan 50 40 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Source: Nielsen Global Online Surveys to June 2010 The 100 club… India 129 Indonesia 119 Vietnam 119 Philippines 113 Norway 113 Singapore 112 China 109 Australia 108 Brazil 107 Colombia Canada 105 102 Hong Kong 101 UAE 101 Source: Nielsen Global Online Surveys to June 2010 Biggest+2nd biggest concerns in next 6 months The economy 32% Job security 20% Health 20% Work/life balance 19% Increasing food prices 15% Childrens 14% Increasing utility bills 14% Debt 11% Parents 8% Increasing fuel prices 8% Political stability 7% Global warming No concerns 6% 3% Source: Nielsen Global online survey: June 2010 Global average Discretionary spending: EU Big 5 averages 45% 40% 35% Holidays Out of home entertainment New clothes 30% 25% Home improvements 20% New technology 15% Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Once you have covered your essential living expenses, which of the following statements best describes what you do with your spare cash: I spend on: Compared to this time last year, which of the following actions have you taken to save on household expenses? 41% Spend less on new clothes 36% 36% 33% 29% 25% 25% 23% 21% 21% 21% 17% 13% 12% Switch to cheaper grocery brands Out-of-home entertainment Try to save on gas and electricity Cut down on holidays/short breaks Delay upgrading technology Cut down on take-away meals Cut down on telephone expenses Delay major household items Cut out annual vacation Use my car less often At-home entertainment Look for better deals on finance Alcohol Smoking 8% Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey June 2010 Average of EU Big 5: ES, DE, GB, FR, IT GDP per capita vs. Household spend on food Norway GDP Per Capita, US $ Ireland Denmark U.S.A. Sweden Netherlands U.K. Finland Australia Japan France Germany Spain Greece R2 = 0.8 Czech Republic Korea Estonia Slovakia Poland Lithuania Latvia Argentina Turkey Brazil China Namibia* Household Spend on Food (%) * Household spend on food (%) is for Caprivi, Kavango, Ohangwena, Omusati, Oshana, and Oshikoto. Sources: UN; International Labour Organization; allcountries.org; National Bureau Of Statistics of the The Peoples Republic Of China; swivel.com; World Resources Institute; International Finance Corporation Russia Romania India Global Population… Billions of People 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2.6 billion 2 1 0 9.3 billion 6.8 billion 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Global middle class: in billion x2 in 15 years x2 in 40 years Source: OECD Asia-Pac: Where is fish mainly purchased? 10 9 2 19 21 3 8 38 19 16 33 67 7 80 Modern trade 77 56 50 49 45 Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends 2008 Ko re a Au st ra li a ia In d on es ia In d si a Ma l ay Ch in a 23 HK Do not buy category Specialist/ Wet market Evolution of formats in Europe 26% 22% 25% 25% 22% 26% 12% 12% 23% 21% 26% 13% 22% 21% 27% 13% 20% 21% 26% 19% 21% 25% 15% 16% 18% 20% 25% 17% 16% 19% 25% 18% 15% 19% 24% 19% 14% 18% 25% 19% 12% 17% 25% 20% 10% 16% 26% 20% 9% 16% 26% 8% 15% 26% 8% 15% 26% 21% 21% 21% 7% 14% 27% 6% 14% 27% 6% 13% 27% 5% 12% 27% 5% 12% 27% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 10% 10% 10% 10% 12% 11% 11% 9% 12% 28% 27% 28% 27% 28% 28% 28% 26% 27% 24% 23% 23% 23% 24% 23% 22% 22% 23% 22% 22% 21% 22% 22% 34% 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 36% 36% 32% 32% 33% 34% 31% 30% 29% 27% 28% 24% 26% 23% 22% 18% 19% 20% 17% 16% 14% 15% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Nielsen Trad Supret SSM LSM HM Europe: Where is fish mainly purchased? 3 19 14 10 22 28 45 8 26 15 54 48 33 24 27 Do not buy category 25 44 61 20 69 57 46 59 54 Modern Trade 64 67 53 15 15 De nm 14 Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends 2008 8 6 Fi nl an d 17 d 19 er l an 19 Specialist/ market UK 26 Sw i tz 27 ar Ne k th er lan ds Ge rm an y Ire lan d Fr an ce Sw ed en No rw ay Au st ria 34 Ita ly 41 Sp ain Po rtu ga l 46 3 Private label share: 8 years, 7 countries, 2000 categories 40% 35% Volume 30% Value 25% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Nielsen Caution! 2009 = estimation from different data source Private Label evolution: brand architecture Better for you Premium Regular Better for the planet Basic Health & Wellness Value for Responsible money consumption Budget Private label sub-brand growth Budget 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2006 2008 2007 Source: Nielsen to 4 w/e 19/9/09 2009 Consumer insights •The economic downturn •Grocery issues •Consumer issues? 4 megatrends Health/ Well-Being Ethical Indulgence/ Pleasure Convenience/ Practicality Which of these products do you actively try to buy? Energy efficient 37% Locally made 33% Fairtrade 28% Organic 25% Ethically produced 24% In recyclable packaging Farmer's Market Haven't travelled far to get to the store Little or no packaging Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2010, 27665 consumers in 53 countries 23% 21% 18% 17% On average, how often do you eat fish (including seafood)? 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0 3.5 0.5 1 1.5 0 Philippines Israel Latvia Malaysia France Belgium Singapore Ireland Brazil Portugal Italy Chile Thailand Poland NZ Hong Kong Sweden Switzerland Indonesia UK Venezuela Japan Estonia Canada Spain Lithuania Turkey Taiwan Egypt US Vietnam Australia Colombia China Austria Netherlands Norway Finland Czech Denmark Germany Pakistan South Korea Greece Argentina Russia Mexico India UAE S Africa Hungary Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey April 2008 Occasions per week Global average 1.6 0.5 1 1.5 Animal products per capita consumption 400 350 250 200 150 100 156 50 130 122 92 89 82 69 66 63 62 60 55 46 43 39 Fish, Seafood* Bovine meat Pig meat Sheep and goat meat Ir e Chicken meat Other Meat *Includes Cephalopods; Crustaceans; Demersal fish; Freshwater fish; Large Pelagic fish; Marine fish, other; and Molluscs FAOSTAT; FAO Statistics Division 33 Sw lan d itz er la nd G er m an y A us tr ia . .K U ec e G re nd s k er la N et h en m ar iu m D el g ly B Ita en d Sw ed Fi nl an ce Fr an n Sp ai or w ay N al 0 Po rt ug (g/capita/day) 300 US: Beef problems, poultry +200%; seafood gains EU: More Beef problems (BSE, FMD); Seafood, Pig meat and Poultry gain USA 130kg/head/yr 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 19 61 19 64 19 67 19 70 19 73 19 76 19 79 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97 20 00 20 03 50 19 61 19 64 19 67 19 70 19 73 19 76 19 79 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97 20 00 20 03 Kg/head/year 60 EU 15 160kg/head/yr Seafood Poultry Beef Pork Source: FAO, Office de l'Elevage If cost wasn’t an issue would you eat much more fish? 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Much more France Greece Austria Ireland UK Norway Italy Estonia Lithuania Hungary Denmark Sweden Portugal Czech Republic Israel Germany Russia Netherlands Poland Latvia Belgium Spain Finland Switzerland 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 % Growth v 2008 $ billions US LabelTrends 2009 -10 0 Sources: Nielsen LabelTrends Total Food/Drug/Mass excl Wal-Mart PY +16% / I am concerned about... the global environment 29% climate change and global warming 29% overuse of global fish stocks 17% 51% 47% 36% Strongly agree Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2009, 25420 consumers in 50 countries Agree Who should assume responsibility for ensuring fish stocks are not overused? Governments of countries 67% The fishing industry 46% Fish manufacturers/processors 28% People who buy or eat fish 19% Non-governmental organisations 18% Retailers of fish products 16% Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2009, 25420 consumers in 50 countries Stated concern vs purchasing… Eco labels have no influence on me 60% Not very concerned Don’t buy labels LV 50% Very concerned Don’t buy labelled EE NO BE CZ 40% FR NZ AU AT GR 30% TH 20% SA ID JP 10% PH Not very concerned Buy sustainably labelled Very concerned Buy sustainably labelled VN 0% 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 I am concerned about overuse of global fish stocks Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey 2009 4.3 What level of influence do product labels declaring that fish is sustainably sourced have on your purchasing decision? 0% Portugal Italy Greece Spain Turkey Ireland Israel Sweden GB Switzerland Austria Germany Russia Denmark France Belgium Czech R Poland Netherlands Hungary Finalnd Esonia Norway Latvia 50% 32% 31% 27% 27% 25% 23% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 13% 13% 12% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 100% Source: Nielsen Global online survey: 2009 Europe Do you prefer wild captured or farmed fish on...? Taste 23% Nutritional content 21% Freshness 21% The environment 17% 28% 40% 26% 23% 21% Strongly prefer wild Prefer wild captured Prefer farmed Strongly prefer farmed Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey March 2009, 25420 consumers in 50 countries 6% 2% 44% 42% 41% No preference 7% 3% 10% 3% 15% 6% Define the problem… Penetration? Trial? Frequency? Repeat purchasing? Distribution? Competitor activity? Insufficient brand equity? Display? What are the main reasons you don’t eat fish? Global Average 33% I don't like the taste 32% I don't like the smell 21% I don't like the bones 17% It's too expensive I'm opposed to eating fish because of my personal beliefs 15% I don't like the appearance (fins, scales, head) I don't know how to cook it It's not easily available 14% 12% 8% Source: Nielsen Global Online Survey April 2008 Base: Respondents who “Rarely or Never” eat Fish Closing thoughts • Media doom and gloom not in the grocery data • Downward price pressures: private label, promotions, discounters • Focus on the consumer • Compete on quality more than price! • Premium opportunities exist: –NPD: organic?, GM?, cloning? –Sustainability: choice editing – trust in retailers • Stay ahead of consumer sentiment and legislation [email protected] +44 (0)7764 635379 Closing thought: Profits, people, planet... “It is not your duty to finish the work, but neither are you free to neglect it.” Source: Rabbi Tarfon, Pirke Avot, The Talmud [email protected] +44 (0)7764 635379
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